Understanding

Earthquakes

The Headquarters for

Earthquake Research Promotion
 Understanding Earthquakes Understanding Earthquakes

Introduction
This booklet is written to help people better understand earthquakes. In preparing
Supporting Section
this booklet a great deal of data and information has been provided by many
PART 1 Government Efforts… …………………………………………………………………… 24
institutions and researchers. We are extremely grateful to them.
I. General Overview of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion… ……… 24

　1. The basic objectives and roles of the Headquarters for Earthquake
Contents…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 2
　　 Research Promotion… …………………………………………………………………… 24

Recent earthquakes in Japan and around the world… ……………………………………… 4 　2. Composition of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion… ………… 24

PART 2 Applying the Outcome of Investigative Earthquake Research for Disaster Prevention… … 25
Q&A
I. Long-term Evaluation… ……………………………………………………………………… 25
Q1 Why do we have so many earthquakes in Japan?……………………………………………… 6 　　The results of long-term evaluation along the main active fault zones……………… 25
Q2 How do earthquakes occur?… …………………………………………………………………… 7 　　The probability of earthquake occurrence and the probability of other accidents
Q3 What is an active fault?… ………………………………………………………………………… 8 　　or disastrous events………………………………………………………………………… 26
Q4 Do earthquakes not happen in places where there are no active faults?…………………… 9 　　Results of long-term evaluations of Subduction zone earthquakes… ……………… 26
Q5 Do earthquakes repeatedly happen at the same places?… ……………………………… 10 II. Seismic Hazard Maps………………………………………………………………………… 27
Q6 How often do large earthquakes occur?… …………………………………………………… 11 　　Basic use of seismic hazard maps… …………………………………………………… 27
Q7 How do seismic waves travel?… ……………………………………………………………… 12 　　Utilization of the“Seismic Hazard Map”………………………………………………… 27
Q8 In what place does the ground shake the strongest?… …………………………………… 13 　　Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps… …………………………………………………… 28
Q9 How long does the ground shake for?………………………………………………………… 14 　　Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults… ……………………… 29
Q10 What is“long-period ground motion”?………………………………………………………… 15

Q11 What are the hypocenter, epicenter and hypocentral areas?……………………………… 16

Supplementary Material Section
Q12 Are seismic intensity and earthquake magnitude different?… …………………………… 17

Q13 What are“main shocks”and“aftershocks”?………………………………………………… 18 Measures you can take to stay safe from earthquakes… ………………………………………… 30
Q14 What are“earthquake swarms”?… …………………………………………………………… 19 1. Before an earthquake occurs… …………………………………………………………………… 30
Q15 How are tsunamis generated?… ……………………………………………………………… 20 10 Ways to Prepare for an Earthquake…………………………………………………………… 30
Q16 What is“liquefaction”?… ……………………………………………………………………… 21 2. If an earthquake occurs……………………………………………………………………………… 30
Q17 Is it possible to predict earthquakes?… ……………………………………………………… 22 10 Tips for Earthquake Safety……………………………………………………………………… 30
Q18 What is an“earthquake early warning”?……………………………………………………… 23

2 3
 Understanding Earthquakes Understanding Earthquakes

The huge earthquake that occurred off Sumatra Island, Indonesia in 2004 caused an enormous tsunami. The tsunami caused

Recent earthquakes in Japan and around the world tremendous damages to the countries facing the Indian Ocean. Large earthquakes like this that inflict serious damage occur repeatedly
around the world. Living in Japan, one of the world’s most earthquake-prone countries, we should never forget that we have also
suffered severe damage from many earthquakes. These include the Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake (The Great Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake Disaster) in 1995 and the off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (The Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster) in 2011.

(Photo: Provided by Mr. Katsuyuki Abe)

Earthquakes (8) The 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake (U.S.), M7.1 (Photo: Provided by Mr. Katsuyuki Abe)

(10) The 1999 Jiji Earthquake (known in Taiwan as the 921 earthquake) in Taiwan, M7.7
around the world
8
(9) The 1990 Luzon Earthquake (Baguio City, the Philippines), M7.88 11 13
10
9

0
12

Earthquakes 0
(Photo: Provided by Mr. Takehiko Yamamura)

19 (11) The 2003 Bam Earthquake in the south-east part of Iran, M6.8 114

in Japan (Photo: Provided by the National Museum

of Nature and Science, Tokyo)
(1) The 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, M7.9
(Photo: Provided by Mr. Akira Nose)

62 killed (12) The 2004 Sumatra Earthquake (also known as the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake), M8.8
2,413 killed

(Photo: Provided by 2,430 killed (Photo: Provided by Mr. Katsuyuki Abe)

Japan Meteorological Agency)

(2) The 1946 Nankai Earthquake, M8.0

(Photo: Provided by Mr. Katsuyuki Abe)

0
(3) The1993 Hokkaido-nansei-oki Earthquake, M7.8
43,200 killed

0
(13) The 2008 Sichuan Earthquake, M7.9
More than

0
More than 105,000
283,100 killed
killed or missing

1,330 killed
(4) The 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake, M7.3
2 (6) The 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake, M7.2
69,185 killed
(Photo: Provided by Mr. Yoshiaki Nakano)

230 killed or missing

(14) The 2010 Chilean Earthquake off the central coast, M8.5
(5) The 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, M6.8
(7) The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake on March 11, Mw9.0
3

6
7
5

6,434 killed (Photo: Provided by Mr. Katsuyuki Abe)

4 1

Mo than 521 killed

More (Photo: Provided by the International
2 Federation of Red Cross and
Red Crescent Societies)
65 killed (Photo: Provided by Niigata Pref.)
18,493
18,49
,49
493 killed (Photo: Provided by Miyako City, Iwate Pref.)
23 killed (Photo: Provided by Iwate Pref. Ichinoseki General Branch Office of Iwate Kennan Wide Area Promotion Bureau)

4 5
 Q1 Why do we have so many earthquakes in Japan? Q2 How do earthquakes occur?
That is because Japan is situated on the plate boundaries, an area where large strains are Earthquakes occur when stressed underground rock masses rapidly move in opposite directions to
accumulated. each other along a certain plane (a fault plane). This movement is called fault movement (or faulting).

The surface of the earth is covered with more than a dozen huge plates (plate-like masses of rock). The plates move in Along the Japan Trench and the Nankai Trough on the Pacific side of Japan, oceanic plates are continuously moving under
different directions at a speed of several centimeters per year (plate motion). Looking at things on a large scale, most the continental plates (subduction). At the same time, the continental plates are being dragged inland.
earthquakes occur in the belt-like zones along the plate boundaries. It is said that Japan has been struck by approximately ten The subduction of an oceanic plate stresses rock masses around the plate boundary. When the accumulated stress exceeds its
percent of the world’s earthquakes. This is despite its small area, being less than one percent of the world’s total land area. limit, a fault movement occurs. This leads the continental plate to rapidly jump up. This movement is a type of earthquake
Tremendous forces are applied by plate motion to the inside of the underground rock masses near the plate boundaries. Over called an inter-plate earthquake.
many years a vast amount of energy builds up inside the rock masses as a strain and accordingly stress is accumulated. If a rock On the other hand, earthquakes can occur in oceanic plates. The stress accumulated inside the oceanic plate generates a fault
mass fractures due to the accumulated stress, an earthquake occurs. Japan is situated along the boundaries of four plates. The movement in the plate; this also causes an earthquake. This type of earthquake is called an intra-oceanic plate earthquake.
large strain energy accumulated in the rock masses therefore cause many earthquakes to be generated. However this doesn’t In continental plates, indirect forces from plate motion accumulate strain energy. Fault movements occur to release this
only apply to the type of earthquakes that occur near the plate boundaries. Earthquakes that occur inland are also thought to strain energy in the continental plate. They occur at depths of up to 20 km from the ground surface. When a large-scale fault
be the result of accumulated strain in continental plates. movement occurs in a continental plate, a fault displacement may develop on or near the ground surface.
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion calls earthquakes that occur along or around a plate boundary related
to a trench or trough a “subduction zone (trench type) earthquake”. It also calls earthquakes that occur at the shallow section of
North American plate a continental plate a “shallow inland earthquake.”
h
e nc
Tr Continental plate
il
Kur Trench, trough

The
Oceanic plate
Shallow inland
earthquake Inter-plate earthquake
nch

Eurasian plate
n Tre

Plate motion
Japa

Subduction Intra-oceanic
of plate plate earthquake
The

Red arrows show

fault movements.
8 cm each year
1. Forces are applied to the rock mass. 2. Strain energy is accumulated
  in the rock mass.
Earthquakes occur as fault
rough Pacific plate
nk ai T movements. A fault movement is
The

Na a phenomenon that involves two

The
Izu-O

Force
adjacent rock masses moving in
gasa

3 to 5 cm each year Force opposite directions to each other

along a certain plane (a fault
wara

plane). The energy of strain

ch
Tren

n
Tre Philippine Sea accumulated by plate motion in
oto
ch

ei-sh plate
the rock mass is released in the
Nans form of a seismic wave. This is
The 4. The fault movements release 3. Fault movement starts from due to abrupt faulting.
  the strain energy.  the hypocenter, resulting in
Focal depth Epicenter data (2003 to 2012, greater than M4) are provided by the Japan Meteorological  an earthquake.
0 300 600km Agency. Fault plane
The arrows show the relative direction and speed of the Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea
plate to the Eurasian plate, respectively.
The thick solid lines show the plate boundaries. The dashed line shows unclear plate
boundaries. 震源
Hypocenter

○ shows the locations of epicenters. The color shows the depth of each hypocenter. You
can see that the earthquakes are concentrated along the areas near plate boundaries.

6 7
 Q3 What is an active fault? Q4 Do earthquakes not happen in places
where there are no active faults?
An active fault is a fault that has repeatedly experienced fault movements in the past and is still
Earthquakes can occur where no active faults have been recognized.
deemed to be a source fault of future earthquakes.

If a large earthquake occurs inside a continental plate, the fault displacement can reach the ground surface and deform If the magnitude of the earthquake is small, the displacement of the causal fault does not always show up on the ground
geological layers and geographical features. The deformations caused by repetitive fault movements such as these form surface. Even if the fault displacement reaches the ground surface, sometimes such evidence of the fault activity is removed by
characteristic geographies. These can include dislocations along mountain ridges, dislocations along valley faults, and erosion or sedimentation over a long period of time. Therefore, even in places where no apparent active faults have been
continuous cliff formations. By surveying these characteristic geographies through aerial photography, it is presumed that presently found, active faults may still exist and cause earthquakes in the future.
approximately 2,000 active faults currently exist in Japan. Excavating active faults is useful for estimating the probability of Detailed investigations of underground areas and geography may lead to detection of such underground faults.
fault activity in the future. By undertaking the excavations, we can find out the scale and interval of earthquakes in the past.

A fault apparent on the ground surface

Large-scale earthquakes with magnitudes 7 or greater
usually leave evidence of their activity on the ground
surface. As a result, underground faults can be
recognized as active faults. However, in some cases,
such evidence can become obscured due to long-term
erosion or sedimentation.

The fault cliff that was formed as a

result of the fault movements that
occurred during the Nobi Earthquake
in 1891 (shown by the arrows). In
this earthquake, a total of 80 km of
surface fault rupture emerged along
the Nobi Fault. Active faults show
that earthquakes that form such a
characteristic geography have
occurred repeatedly in the past.

Hypocenter
A fault that is not
apparent on the ground surface
In most earthquakes with magnitudes smaller
than 6, no distinct evidence is left on the ground
surface. It is therefore difficult to recognize the
Surface rupture
underground fault as being active.
Approx. 6 m

Dislocation of geological layers gener-

ated by the Nobi Earthquake (the
Neodani Fault). Epicenter
A vertical displacement of approxi-
mately 6 m can be observed. Past
fault activities can be clarified by
examining the dislocation of layers Underground faults that have caused earth-
such as this one. quakes are called“earthquake source faults.”
The dislocations that reached the ground sur-
Fault Hypocentral Hypocenter Earthquake source fault face as a result of faulting are called“earth-
region quake surface faults (earthquake faults).”
(Photo: Provided by the Education Committee of Motosu City)

8 9
 Q5 Do earthquakes occur repeatedly at the same places? Q6 How often do large earthquakes occur?
The intervals of subduction zone earthquakes, which occur near plate boundaries, range from several
Large-scale earthquakes tend to occur repeatedly at the same place over a long period of time.
decades to several hundreds of years. On the other hand, the intervals of active fault earthquakes,
which occur at inland active faults, range from a thousand to tens of thousands of years.
In Japan, it is well known that there are many active faults and places where large-scale subduction zone earthquakes repeat
all over the country. Subduction zone earthquakes, which occur near plate boundaries, occur at intervals ranging from decades to several
Large-scale earthquakes have a tendency of “happening repeatedly at the same place as in the past.” For example, records hundreds of years on average. This is a relatively short period. Inland active fault earthquakes, on the other hand, occur at
show that at the Nankai Trough, where subduction zone earthquakes occur, large-scale earthquakes have been happening intervals ranging from a thousand to tens of thousands of years. This is quite a long period compared with the human life-span.
repeatedly. The investigation of active faults shows that large-scale inland earthquakes also have repeated at the same fault as in These intervals differ from fault to fault, because they depend on the speed of strain that is accumulated in the rock mass by
the past. plate motion. They also depend on the strength of the rock mass against strain. However, earthquakes that are caused by
individual active faults have almost the same size and recurrence intervals.
Taking all the earthquakes in Japan that inflicted major damage over the past 200 years, the average recurrence interval is 20
pe

ape

years for subduction zone earthquakes and 10 years for shallow inland earthquakes.
Osaka Group
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Kumano Enshu Basin

13

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Hyuga Basin Muroto Basin Basin 300 m

Event
The Nankai Trough The data used was provided by the Japan Coast Guard. (Earthquake)
30
˚
32˚ Granite
The 1930 Kita-izu Earthquake
˚
˚

˚
˚

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138
132

134

136

140

Osaka Group
Previous earthquake
 An average earthquake recurrence interval
+DNXKR7HPPX(DUWKTXDNH Nojima Fault Before the above of 700 to 1000 years
 203 Before the above
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Before the above
 212 209
(LFKR7RNDL(DUWKTXDNH Before the above
.RZD1DQNDL(DUWKTXDNH During the Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake, which Before the above
 The difference in the crossbar
<HDU

262 265 caused the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Before the above colors stands for the differences
6KRKHL.RDQ7RNHL(DUWKTXDNH Disaster, the Nojima Fault in Awaji Island Before the above in the assumed values used for
 6KRKHL.RDQ1DQNDL(DUWKTXDNH
137 moved. The Osaka Group, which had accumu- age estimation.
0HLR(DUWKTXDNH lated several million years ago, was displaced
107 0 2000 4000 6000 years ago
 
102
.HLFKR(DUWKTXDNH along the Nojima fault by more than 300 m.
+RHL(DUWKTXDNH

147 The trench excavation survey at the Tanna Fault indicates that the Tanna
$QVHL7RNDL(DUWKTXDNH
$QVHL1DQNDL(DUWKTXDNH Fault moved nine times in the past, with an average interval of 700 of 1000
92 90
 6KRZD7RQDQNDL(DUWKTXDNH years. (The history of the fault activity was obtained by the Tanna Fault
 6KRZD1DQNDL(DUWKTXDNH
6HDRI+\XJD 1DQNDL 7RNDL
Excavation Survey and Research Group in 1983.)
A B A
5HOLDELOLW\RIHVWLPDWHGK\SRFHQWUDOUHJLRQV A
A
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1. Immediately after an earthquake, a 2. A stratum, B, is then piled up on both sides
8QFHUWDLQ difference in level is created on ground A, of the fault. B is thick on the lower side of
2WKHUV which had been even before the quake. ground A and thin on the other side.
(DUWKTXDNHVZLWKKLJKSRVVLELOLW\RIWVXQDPLV
,QWHUSODWHHDUWKTXDNHVLQWKH6HDRI+\XJD0FODVV C
C
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C B
B A A
B
A
A

3. After that another stratum, C, is deposited 4. Immediately after the next earthquake.
with the same thickness on both ground A Processes 1. to 4. are repeated.
and B.

Such geological formations are found by

excavating active faults. They reveal that the
faults moved repeatedly in the past.

10 11
 Q7 How do seismic waves travel? Q8 In what place does the ground shake the strongest?
Part of the earthquake energy travels in the form of waves (seismic waves). The softer the ground is, the stronger the ground shakes.

When the underground rock mass is broken and a fault moves, part of the energy propagates in all directions as seismic How strongly the ground shakes at the surface depends largely on the structure of deep ground near the surface. Generally,
waves. Typical seismic waves contain two different types of waves: P waves and S waves. P waves are the propagation of density the ground shakes more strongly at surfaces where the soil near the surface is soft, compared to ground where the soil near the
change. The direction of P waves’ shake is the same as the direction of their propagation. S waves are the propagation of shear surface is hard. Furthermore, sometime deep portions of ground also make the ground shake more strongly. This happens
deformation. The direction of S waves’ shake is perpendicular to the direction of their propagation. According to the direction because seismic waves increase their strength when they propagate from hard rock mass to soft soil. They also increase their
of their shake, P waves and S waves are called “longitudinal waves” and “transverse waves,” respectively. P waves travel faster strength when the deflected waves and reflected waves overlap.
than S waves. That is why when an earthquake occurs first the ground rattles due to the arrival of P waves. After this the The underground structures near the surface can be estimated from geographical features to some extent. The deep ground
ground slowly sways a little bit due to the arrival of S waves. Additionally, if an earthquake occurs in a distant place (especially structures can also be known through boring investigations or studies using artificial earthquakes.
if the hypocenter is shallow) large and slow swaying can occur after the ground shake by P waves and S waves. Those waves are
called surface waves and travel only on or near the surface of the ground. They are able to reach distant places.
P waves stand for primary waves, which means they come first. S waves stand for secondary waves, which means they come second.

Hypocenter How seismic waves look when amplified

by underground structures
Time of
occurrence
Time duration

Soft ground
Direc
tion
of w
ave prop
agat
ion Obje Rock mass
cts r
attle Slightly soft
ground
ds

S wa
on

ves
c
se

P wa
Slightly hard
a

ves
Velocity amplitude (cm/s)
Direc ground 10
tion
shak of 0
e -10
0 5 10
ds
on

Swa Time (seconds)

Seismic wave
c

ying
to an
se

d fro
b

Earthquake near Hakone on Aug. 5, 1990 (M5.1)

S wa In the figure, underground structures such as rock mass and soft ground are simply
ves illustrated. The earthquake data (waveforms) shown in the figure are actual records.
The ground shakes approximately three times as strongly on the soft ground than it
P wa does on the hard rock. The ground shakes for a longer amount of time on the soft
ves
ground than it does on the hard ground. (This figure based on a figure by Mr. Kazuyoshi Kudo)
Dista Poin
nce t tA
ravel
ed by
the w Poin
ave s tB

12 13
 Q9 How long does the ground shake for? Q10 What is “long-period ground motion”?
The duration of large shakes in the large-scale earthquakes that occur near Japan is thought to be
It means a relatively slow swaying motion during earthquake shake.
generally one minute at the longest. The intensity of shake depends on the scale of the earthquake,
the location of hypocenter, and the condition of the ground.
When a relatively large-scale earthquake occurs, unlike ordinary earthquakes that have short shake periods, they occasionally
Generally, the larger that the earthquake source fault is, the duration of large shakes in the earthquakes that occur near Japan
cause slow swaying ground motions that last for a long period of time. The period can range from several seconds to more than
generally becomes longer. For example, in the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake the length and breadth of the earthquake
a dozen seconds. Such ground motions are called “long-period ground motions”. Long-period ground motion can travel to
source fault was several dozen kilometers. Subsequently, the duration of strong shakes lasted more than a dozen seconds.
places very distant from the hypocenter. Strong swaying motions can even be observed in places that are quite far from the
On the other hand, during the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake both the length and breadth of the
hypocenter. This is one of the features of long-period ground motion.
earthquake source fault were as large as several hundred kilometers. Subsequently, strong shakes lasted more than 3 minutes in
some areas. On the other hand, for example, during the 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake shakes have lasted for long periods of
time, even if the earthquake source fault is not so large. In cases involving long periods of ground motion, slow swaying Seismic intensity distribution Intensity 1
in the 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake Intensity 2
motions may continue even after large shakes. Intensity 3
Intensity 4
The magnitude of shake (seismic intensity) at a given location depends on the scale of the earthquake itself (earthquake Intensity 5 Lower
Intensity 5 Upper
magnitude), it also relies on its position relative to the hypocenter and the underground soil structure. In the case of shallow Intensity 6 Lower

inland earthquakes, strong shakes can come in the vicinity of the hypocenter and inflict severe damages even if the scale of the
earthquake is relatively small.

(Photo provided by the Fire and Disaster

Management Agency)
Churui Village
The 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake (Chuo-Ku, Kobe City) In this earthquake at Tomakomai Harbor, which (Now Makubetsu Town)
was 200 km or more away from the hypocenter, a
（cm/s） Hypocenter
long-period ground motion caused the oil in
Velocity amplitude

50 Tomakomai City
storage tanks to slosh about. This caused the 100km
tanks to rupture, leading to fire.
(Data taken from the Japan Meteorological Agency website)

North-south shake (cm)

−50 10
Churui Village 0
(Now Makubetsu Town) −10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
（seconds）
10
Tomakomai City 0
The 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake: a large shake lasted for more than a dozen −10
seconds in Kobe City. During this time an extremely large shake lasted for 4 or 5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 seconds
seconds.
From the seismographic data it can be seen that the swaying motion continued for a long time in Tomakomai,
(Data taken from the Japan Meteorological Agency website) even though it was very far from the hypocenter.

Large structures tend to resonate with long-period ground motions. It is now known that during the 1923 Great Kanto

The 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake（Tomakomai City） Earthquake, there were large tremors with periods of more than 5 seconds. However these long-period ground motions did not
attract much attention at the time. This was because back then there were not many large structures in Tokyo. However,
（cm/s）
Velocity amplitude

50 nowadays ultra-high-rise buildings and large-scale bridges have been constructed in various part of Japan. Structures like these
tend to resonate with ground motions that have periods exceeding several seconds. There are therefore fears that long-period
0 ground motions will affect
A building has its own unique those structures. On the other
−50 period when it is particularly
hand, low-rise buildings tend
susceptible to shake. If
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
（seconds） seismic waves occur near that resonate with short-period
period, the building shakes
wildly. This phenomenon is ground motions.
The 2003 Tokachi-oki Earthquake: long-period ground motions were observed in called“resonance.”
Tomakomai City, where the sway continued for nearly 3 minutes.
*In the figure, a part exceeding 100 seconds is cut off.
(Data taken from the Japan Meteorological Agency website)
Short-period seismic motion Long-period seismic motion

14 15
 Q11 What are the hypocenter, epicenter
and hypocentral areas?
Q12 Are seismic intensity and earthquake
magnitude different?
The point where the fracture started is called the hypocenter. An epicenter is the point on the ground Intensity is the greatness of the shake observed at the location and earthquake magnitude is the
surface directly above the hypocenter. Hypocentral regions are regions where fractures have spread greatness of the earthquake itself.
due to faulting. Intensity is a measure of the shake at a particular location. When an earthquake occurs, the seismic waves propagate in every
direction. Since the behavior of the wave propagation differs depending on the distance from the hypocenter and ground
Enormous forces are acting on the underground rock masses. When the forces become too great for the rock masses to bear,
condition, the strength of shake differs with location. The strength is measured at various locations to define the intensity at
they fracture. This induces an earthquake. A hypocenter is the point where the fracturing has started. An epicenter is the point
each place.
on the ground surface directly above the hypocenter. The fracture, which started at the hypocenter, spreads to the surrounding
Earthquake magnitude, on the other hand, is a measure of how great the actual fault movement that occurred at a
region and stops at a certain distance. This expanded region is called the hypocentral region. It is in this region that the vast
hypocentral region is. The scale of an earthquake (earthquake magnitude) depends on the size of the fault plane and amount of
energy of earthquakes is generated.
displacement. By using the maximum amplitude on equipment such as a seismograph, earthquake magnitude can be seen as an
indirect expression of the energy unleashed by seismic waves caused as a result of faulting.

Intensity 2 Intensity 4 Intensity 5 lower Intensity 6 upper

Epicenter

Sedimentary
layer
(soft ground)
Hypocentral
region
Hypocenter
(Slightly hard
ground)

Rock mass (hard) Earthquake

source fault
(hypocentral region)
Hypocenter
Earthquake source fault
Earthquake magnitude 7.0
Pattern diagram showing the relation between
hypocenters, epicenters and hypocentral regions Earthquake magnitude, which represents the scale of faulting, only provides one
reading for earthquakes. However, the intensity, which represents the strength
of shake at different locations, varies with the location. The figure shows that
shake movements are larger when the hypocenter is nearer and the ground is
softer.
35°
N

Hypocentral region
Epicenter
0 1 2 3 4 5 lower
34°
50'N
Himeji
Nishinomiya
Akashi Imperceptible to Felt slightly by some Felt by many people Felt by most people
34°
40'N
Osaka people. people keeping quiet keeping quiet in in buildings.
Kobe in buildings. buildings.
- Most people are startled.
Hokudan - Hanging objects such as

5 upper 6 lower 6 upper

lamps swing significantly. - Many people are frightened
- Unstable ornaments and feel the need to hold onto
may fall. something stable.
34°
30'N
- Dishes in cupboards and
items on bookshelves may fall.
- Unsecured furniture may
move, and unstable furniture
may topple over.

34°
20'N
0 5km
Sumoto 7
134°
30'E 134°
40'E 134°
50'E 135°
0'E 135°
10'E 135°
20'E 135°
30'E High earthquake Low earthquake High earthquake Low earthquake
resistance resistance resistance resistance

- Many people find it - It is difficult to remain standing. - It is impossible to move without

Epicenter of the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake (M7.3) difficult to walk without - Many unsecured furniture moves crawling. People may be thrown
holding onto something and may topple over. Doors may through the air.
and ground surface projection of its hypocentral region stable. become wedged shut. - Most unsecured furniture moves, High earthquake resistance Low earthquake resistance
- Dishes in cupboards and - Wall tiles and windows may and is more likely to topple over.
items on bookshelves are sustain damage and fall. - Wooden houses with low - Wooden houses with low earthquake resistance
more likely to fall. - In wooden houses with low earthquake resistance are more are even more likely to lean or collapse.
- Unsecured furniture may earthquake resistance, tiles may likely to lean or collapse. - Wooden houses with high earthquake resistance
topple over. fall and buildings may lean or - Large cracks may form, and large may lean in some cases.
- Unreinforced collapse. landslides and massif collapses - Reinforced-concrete buildings with low earthquake
concrete-block walls may be seen. resistance are more likely to collapse.
may collapse.

16 17
 Q13 What are“main shocks”and“aftershocks”? Q14 What are “earthquake swarms”?
A main shock is the largest earthquake in a sequence. Smaller earthquakes that repeatedly occur Earthquake swarms are sequences of earthquakes in which similar size earthquakes occur in a
afterward are aftershocks. relatively small area in a concentrated manner.

When large earthquakes occur, many small earthquakes often occur afterward. The largest earthquake is called the main Sometimes similar size earthquakes occur in a concentrated manner in a relatively small area. This happens for a certain
shock and the subsequent smaller earthquakes are called aftershocks. period of time and then they calm down. Such earthquakes are called earthquake swarms. What makes earthquake swarms
The magnitude of aftershocks varies but the largest of them is called the largest aftershock. Generally the magnitude of the distinctive is that they occur many times, their hypocenters are shallow, and they are quite small. However, sometimes
largest aftershock is smaller by 1 or more than the main shock. It is known that aftershocks frequently occur immediately after medium-sized earthquake swarms with magnitudes of 5 to 6 occur.
the main shock. However, their rate declines as time elapses. It is also known that if the magnitude of the main shock is large, it The 1965 Matsushiro Earthquake Swarm, the 1978 Izu Hanto Toho-oki Earthquake Swarm, and the 2000 Izu Shoto
takes a longer amount of time for the aftershocks to die down. Earthquake Swarm are famous in Japan. It is assumed that earthquake swarms are somehow related to the underground
movement of fluids, such as magma. It is assumed from crustal deformation data that the 2000 Izu Shoto Earthquake Swarm
occurred when plate-shaped magma intruded into the rock mass.
Example of“main shock – aftershock”type earthquake activity Example of“swarm type”earthquake activities
(the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake on June 14, 2008) (The 2000 Izu Shoto Earthquake Swarm)

From Jun. 26, 2000 to Aug. 31, 2000

M

Main shock, 8:43 a.m., June 14, 2008 Jul.1

7 M6.4 Jul.15 7
Jul.9 M6.3 Jul.30 Aug.18
M6.1 M6.5 M6.1
Jul.30

Magnitude
M6.0
Magnitude

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

June 14th 20th 30th Jun.26 Jul.1 Jul.15 Aug.1 Aug.15 Aug.31
Number of earthquakes per day

800 400

Number of earthquakes per day

600 300

400 200

200 100

June 14th 20th 30th

Jun.26 Jul.1 Jul.15 Aug.1 Aug.15 Aug.31
(Hypocenters with magnitudes of 2.0 or greater, provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency) (Hypocenters with a magnitude of 3 or greater, provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency)

18 19
 Q15 How are tsunamis generated? Q16 What is “liquefaction”?
If large crustal deformation occurs under the sea as a result of an earthquake, it moves the overlying Liquefaction is a phenomenon where, due to the shaking of an earthquake, soil with high water
mass of seawater and generates a tsunami. content becomes like liquid.

When large earthquakes occur in the ocean, large crustal deformation occurs on the seafloor. Due to the crustal deformation, Soil on low land or reclaimed land contains a lot of water (pore water). In soil such as this, sandy particles are holding each
the overlying seawater rises and falls. This fluctuation of seawater creates a tsunami. Tsunamis are generated not only by other together. With their water-filled pores, they stay stable. When a strong shake is applied by an earthquake, this system is
earthquakes under the ocean, but also by submarine volcanic eruptions, seafloor landslides, or large collapses near the shore. destroyed. When this happens, the water pressure between the sandy particles increases. This turns the ground into a muddy,
Tsunamis characteristically decrease their velocity and increase their height rapidly as they approach land and the depth of water-like state. The muddy water tries to support the load from above. However, if there are fissures or weak parts in the
the sea decreases. The velocity, although it may be slower near land, is still nearly 40 km/h in areas where water depth is ground surface, the water becomes unable to support the load. This causes muddy water to erupt to the surface. Liquefaction
approximately 10 m. The height of a tsunami doesn’t only depend on how great the earthquake was, but also on the can cause various types of damage. In addition to ground subsidence, it can cause ground-based tanks or manholes to float, and
topography of the seabed and the geographical shape of the coastline. Tsunamis can become much higher due to the shape of a buildings and other structures to lean or collapse.
particular bay or cape.

1) Before an earthquake
Sand particles Pore water

Continental plate Continental plate

Oceanic plate Oceanic plate

2) During an earthquake
Oceanic plates slowly sink under continental When the strain exceeds a certain
plate over decades or hundreds of years. limit, the end of the continental plate
The sand
Strain accumulates when the end of a jumps up (an earthquake occurs). gushes out
continental plate is dragged in downward. When this happens, large volumes of
seawater rise and fall.

Continental plate 3) After an earthquake

Subsidence
Oceanic plate

A tsunami is generated, which then advances

toward land.

20 21
 Q17 Is it possible to predict earthquakes? Q18 What is an “earthquake early warning”?
An earthquake early warning is an information announcement about the occurrence of an earthquake
Generally speaking, it is difficult to predict the occurrence of earthquakes.
before the actual main shake arrives. The information is obtained from the characteristic seismic waves.

Earthquake prediction means to predict “when, where an earthquake will occur, as well as how big it will be, before its Seismic waves have P waves (preliminary tremors), which have a large propagating velocity, and S waves (main tremors),
occurrence based on scientific grounds.” Earthquake prediction is generally considered to be difficult with present science and which are slower. Damage due to earthquake shaking is mainly caused by the S waves. Real-time analysis of the hypocenter
technology, even if limited to large-scale earthquakes. location and strength of the earthquake (magnitude) are now possible immediately after the occurrence of an earthquake,
It is thought that a large-scale earthquake could occur at any time in Tokai. This is a conclusion drawn from the history of thanks to the progress in seismology and information processing technology. This can be done with just the arrival data of P
repeated large earthquakes. About half of the hypocentral regions of past earthquakes were underground and inland. Therefore, it waves near the hypocenter. Once the hypocenter and the magnitude of the earthquake are determined, it is possible to estimate
is thought that earthquake prediction might be possible by developing highly accurate observation networks for capturing the seismic intensity at a given location.
earthquake precursors and monitoring the obtained data. Arrangements for monitoring and information sharing are now in place. This is the system that is currently maintained all over the country to transfer information regarding analyzed and predicted
However, there are still many unknown factors when it comes to the occurrence processes of an earthquake in Tokai. In hypocenters, earthquake magnitudes and seismic intensity before the arrival of S waves. It is known as the “earthquake early
some cases, earthquake precursors are too obscure to detect, or even if they are detected there is sometimes no time to release warning” system and the information is provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency through formats such as TV. It is
the information before the earthquake occurs. Therefore, preparing measures for disaster prevention is also a necessary step that expected that disaster prevention organizations, transportation facilities, public facilities, and others will be able to respond to
must be taken to guard against sudden earthquake strikes. the warning and prevent or minimize the earthquake damages before the S waves arrive. However, if the hypocenter is close, it
becomes impossible to cope with the S waves before they arrive. It is therefore important to keep the differences between P
waves and S waves in mind.

rs)
remo
r yt
rs ) ina
35˚ mo im
tre (p rel Information is
in s
( ma
ave sent to residents
es w
av P
w
S
Japan Meteorological Agency
g News media,
arly warnin disaster prevention
u ake e
Real-time Earthq organizations, etc.
Seismometer data transfer

34˚ As soon as an earthquake (P waves) is detected near the

hypocenter, the process to send the earthquake early warning
begins. It becomes a fight against time with seismic waves.

P waves (preliminary tremors) observed

0 sec 5 sec 10 sec 15 sec
Lead time from the announcement of information until the main tremors

Announcement of information
137˚ 138˚ 139˚ An
Few seconds
earthquake
later
Volumetric strainmeter Seismometer Tidal gauge
The further from the hypocenter, the bigger the lead time is.
Multi-component strainmeter Ocean bottom seismometer Groundwater observatory
Volumeric strainmeter placed GNSS
Extensometer
in Izu area
Anticipated hypocentral ・ The earthquake early warning system catches earthquakes (P waves and preliminary tremors) near their
Strainmeter placed Tiltmeter hypocenter and automatically calculates their location, magnitude, and estimated seismic intensity. The result
region of an earthquake in Tokai
in other institutions is notified swiftly, ranging from several seconds to several dozen seconds, before the strong shaking (S
waves and main tremors) arrives.
Anticipated hypocentral region of an earthquake in Tokai and the crustal ・ However, for locations near the hypocenter, sometimes there is no warning time to prepare for strong shaking.
deformation observation network (Figure from the Japan Meteorological Agency website)
(Taken from a leaflet published by the Japan Meteorological Agency)

22 23
 Supporting Section Applying the Outcome of Investigative Earthquake Research for Disaster Prevention Part 2

Supporting Section　Part 1　Government Efforts Supporting Section　Part 2　

Applying the Outcome of Investigative Earthquake Research for Disaster Prevention
Ⅰ . General Overview of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster on January 17, 1995 killed 6,434 people and destroyed over 100,000 buildings. This was Ⅰ . Long-term Evaluation
the worst damage that Japan had suffered since the end of World War II. It also brought to light a number of problems in the national The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion is evaluating earthquakes along the main active faults of Japan, as
earthquake disaster prevention measures at the time. well as and subduction zone earthquakes. It is doing this to estimate the magnitudes of possible earthquakes and the
Based on these problems, the Special Measure Law on Earthquake Disaster Prevention was enacted by legislators in July 1995. It was probabilities of them occurring in given periods. The Headquarters refers to this practice as “long-term evaluation.”
designed to promote a comprehensive national policy on earthquake disaster prevention. In long-term evaluation, you can see the “places” where large-scale earthquakes might occur, as well as their their specific
The law recognized that the national system had failed to sufficiently communicate and apply the results of earthquake research to “scale (earthquake magnitude)” and “probability” of occurrence.
general public and disaster prevention organizations. As a result, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion was established in ■ The results of long-term evaluation along the main active fault zones
As of Jan.15, 2014
accordance with this law as a special governmental organization attached to the Prime Minister’s Office (it now belongs to the Ministry of
Legend: High (Probability of occurrence within 30 years is 3% or larger) Name of the fault zone
Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology). It was established in order to clarify the systems of responsibility regarding Slightly high (Probability of occurrence within 30 years ranges Kannawa/Kouzu-Matsuda Fault Zone
from 0.1% to 3%) 　 from 0.2% to 16%
M7.5 class, ranges Earthquake occurrence “Nearly 0%” represents
No notation (Probability of occurrence within 30 years is less probability within 30 years less than 0.001%
earthquake research that is directly connected to government policy. It manages this in an integrated fashion with a governmental capacity. than 0.1%, or the probability is unknown, or it has been Scale of earthquake Earthquake occurrence probability is
evaluated to not be an active fault) (earthquake magnitude) calculated for January 1, 2014

1. The basic objectives and roles of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Kushigata-sanmyaku (Kushigata
Mountains) Fault Zone Yamagata-bonchi (Yamagata basin) Sarobetsu Fault Zone
　 from 0.3% to 5% Fault Zone M7.6 class, less or equal to
M6.8 class, ranges 　
□ Basic objectives Atera Fault Zone
Northern segment
M7.3 class, 　
ranges from 0.003% to
4%
Main part: northern segment 　 8% Shonai-heiya-toen
To promote research of earthquakes in order to strengthen earthquake disaster prevention measures, 　 from 6% to 11%
M6.9 class, ranges (eastern edge of
Shonai plain) Fault
especially for the reduction of damages from earthquake. Biwako-Seigan (west bank of Biwa Zone
Lake) Fault Zone Northern segment　 　
Southern segment
　 from 1% to 3%
□ Roles M7.1 class, ranges M6.9 class, ranges
from nearly 0% to 6%
Chuo-Kozosen (Japan Median Tectonic
1. Planning of comprehensive and basic policies Line) Fault Zone Kongo-sanchi-toen
(eastern edge of the Kongo Mountains)
Shinjo-bonchi Kuromatunai-teichi (Kuromatsunai
2. Coordination of budgets and other administrative work with related governmental organizations M6.9 class, nearly 0% to 5%
(Shinjo basin) Fault
Zone
lowland) Fault Zone M7.3 class and
　to 2% to 5%
over, less or equal
3. Establishment of comprehensive survey and observation plans Chuo-Kozosen (Japan Median Tectonic Line)
Fault Zone Izumi-Sanmyaku-Nan-En (Southern
Eastern segment
M7.1 class, less　or Tonami-heiya (Tonami plain) /Kurehayama
Fault Zone
4. Collection, arrangement, analyses, and comprehensive evaluation of survey results edge of Izumi Mountains) Ranges from about
M7.6 to 7.7, ranges from about 0.06% to 14%
equal to 5%
Tonami-heiya (Tonami plain) Fault Zone
　
(eastern segment)
　 by related governmental organizations, universities, etc. Akinada (Aki-nada Sea) Fault Zone M7.0 class, ranges from 0.04% to 6%
Main part M7.0 class, ranges from Kurehayama Fault Zone
5. Publication based on the above evaluations 0.1% to 10% 　 M7.2 class, ranges from nearly 0% to 5%
Hinagu Fault Zone Takada-heiya (Takada plain) Fault Zone
2. Composition of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
Yatsushirokai (Yatsushiro-kai Sea) Takada-heiya-toen (eastern edge of
segment Ranges from about 7.3 class, Takada plain) Fault Zone
ranges from nearly 0% to 16% M7.2 class, ranges from nearly 0% to 8%
Hinagu segment M7.5 class, ranges
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion consists of a director (the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science from nearly 0% to 6%
Tokamachi Fault Zone
Western segment
and Technology) and staff members (such as the vice ministers of related ministries and agencies). Underneath them are the “Policy M7.4 class, 3.0 or more

Committee” and the “Earthquake Research Committee,” composed of staff from related government offices and academia. Morimoto-Togashi Fault Zone
M7.2 class, ranges from 2%
The “Policy Committee” implements the planning of basic to 8%

Disaster prevention measures Okinawa

policy concerning the promotion of earthquake research. It also Takayama-Oppara Fault Zone
at national and regional levels Kokufu Fault Zone
M7.2 class, ranges from nearly
Collaboration
- Central Disaster Management Council
coordinates budgets and other administrative work and deals with 0% to 5%
- Subdivision on Geodesy and Geophysics,
Council for Science and Technology matters such as evaluation-based publications. Itoigawa-Shizuoka-Kozosen
- Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line) Fault
- Assessment Committee for Areas under Intensified The "Earthquake Research Committee" holds regular meetings Zone (Segment including the Gofukuji
Fault)
M8 class (ranges from 71/2 　
Measures against Earthquake Disaster
on a monthly basis and classifies and analyzes research and to 81/2), 14%
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Rokko-Awajishima (Awaji Miura-Hanto (Miura Peninsula) Fault Group
(Director: Minister of Education, Culture, observation results, as well as study outcomes. It does this in order Kego Fault Zone Island) Fault Zone Sakaitoge-Kamiya Fault Zone Main part/Takeyama Fault Zone
Sports, Science and Technology) Southeastern Activated in the Great Main part M6.6 class (possibly greater or equal to
segment Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake M7.6 class, ranges from 0.02% to
to evaluate seismic activity in a comprehensive manner and to M7.2 class, 13% 　 6.6), 6% to 11% 　
Policy Committee Earthquake Research Committee Disaster (Hyogoken-nanbu Main part/Kinugasa/Kitatake Fault Zone
ranges from 0.3% Earthquake)
M6.7 class (possibly greater or equal to
publish evaluation results. In addition, ad hoc meetings are held to 6% Main part: Awajishima-Seigan Kiso-Sanmyaku-Seien (western 6.7), ranges from nearly 0 to 3%
(west coast of Awaji Island) edge of Kiso Mountains) Fault Zone
Unzen Fault Group segment including the Nojima
Comprehensive Basic Policies Survey and Observation Data, in response to damaging earthquakes or marked seismic activity. Southwestern part: northern segment Fault
Main part: southern segment
Kannawa/Kouzu-Matsuda Fault Zone
M7.3 class, ranges from nearly 0% Probability immediately before to 4%
　 from nearly 0%
M6.3 class, ranges
M7.5 class, ranges from 0.2% to
Survey and Observation Plans Research Results
The meeting seeks to assess the current activity and the probability to 4% the occurrence of the 16% 　
Japan Meteorological earthquake Nara-bonchi-toen (eastern edge of Nara
M7.3, ranges from 0.02% to 8%
Agency
of aftershocks. Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone basin) Fault Zone
Fujikawa-Kako Fault Zone
Ooita-heiya(Oita plain)—Yufuin Fault M7.4 class, ranges from nearly 0% to 5%
Survey, Observations, Research, etc. Zone/western segment (Case a)
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion 　 from 2% to 4%
M6.7 class, ranges
Suonada (Suo-nada Sea) Fault
Group 　 from 10% to 18%
M8.0 class, ranges
MEXI GSI JMA JCG Various Uemachi Fault Zone
Ooita-heiya (Oita plain)—Yufuin Fault Main part (Case b)
universities formulated its new policy, which was titled: “New Promotion of Zone/eastern segment M7.5 class, ranges from 2% to
　 M8.0 class, less or equal to 2% to 11%
　 from 0.03% to 4%
M7.2 class, ranges
M7.6 class, ranges from 2% to 4% 3% 　
NIED JAMSTEC AIST NICT NRIFD
Earthquake Research - Comprehensive Basic Policies for the
MEXI: Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Promotion of Seismic Research through the Observation, ”Occurrence probability”of earthquake
GSI: Geospatial Information Authority of Japan
Earthquakes are generated by dislocation on a fault. It is thought that individual faults have their own
JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency
Measurement, and Survey -.” This policy is a guideline of
JCG:
NIED:
Japan Coast Guard
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention individual recurrence intervals. If the recurrence interval and the time of the previous earthquake are known,
JAMSTEC:
AIST:
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
earthquake research for the next 10 years, and was released in the time of the next earthquake can be estimated to a certain extent. However, since the actual recurrence
NICT: National Institute of Information and Communications Technology
NRIFD: National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster 2009 (revised in September 2012). interval can vary and is sometimes uncertain, the time of the next earthquake is expressed as a probability.

24 25
 Supporting Section Applying the Outcome of Investigative Earthquake Research for Disaster Prevention Part 2

● The probability of earthquake occurrence and the probability of other accidents or disastrous events II. Seismic Hazard Maps
The probability of earthquake occurrence given in the figure is usually only a few percent. This might seem small, but this
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion made the “National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan” public in 2005.
value does not mean that we are free from earthquakes and are safe.
Since then it has been publishing seismic hazard maps that reflect the latest information.
For example, the probability of getting killed in a traffic accident within 30 years is approximately 0.2%*1. If you compare
There are two types of seismic hazard maps, which have different perspectives. The first of these is the “Probabilistic Seismic
this value with that of an earthquake, you can see that the probability of earthquake occurrence is not so small. Furthermore,
Hazard Maps,” which shows the probability of strong shakes occurring at given areas over designated periods. The second is the
an earthquake can, even if the occurrence probability is low, inflict enormous damages once it occurs. It is important to
“Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults,” which shows specified faults and how strongly certain areas near
consider its possible extent of damages when accepting this probability.
the faults can shake if an earthquake were to occur at those faults. Seismic hazard maps are prepared based on long-term
＊ 1　Calculated based on the statistics from the White Paper published by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, using a specific assumption.
evaluations. These are predictions of earthquake magnitudes and the probability of earthquake occurrence in a given period.
■ Results of long-term evaluations of Subduction zone earthquakes They target earthquakes that occur at main active faults, as well as subduction-zone earthquakes. Seismic hazard maps are also
As of Jan.15, 2014 based on seismic ground motion prediction methods, which specify earthquake source faults.
Legend: Akita-ken-oki Northwestern Hokkaido-oki Since these two maps have different perspectives, you must properly choose which should be used depending on your
Region name Nemuro-oki (off the shore of Nemuro)
(off the shore of Akita Prefecture) (off the shore of northwestern
Earthquake occurrence M7.9 class, about 50%
M7.5 class, about 3% and less
probability within 30 years
Hokkaido)
M7.8 class, ranges from Simultaneous occurrence with purpose or interest in preparing for future earthquakes.
Scale of earthquake 0.006 to 0.1% Tokachi-oki
M8.3 class
(earthquake magnitude)
Earthquake occurrence probability is calculated for January 1, 2014
Basic use of seismic hazard maps

○ Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps ○Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults
The 2003 Tokachi With this map you can find out how high and how regionally With this map you can see how severe the ground
-oki Earthquake different the probability of strong shaking occurrences are over a motion would be in particular areas around a
M8.0 About 60%*
The Chishima 　 immedi-
*The probability certain period. You can also consider all the possible particular seismic source fault if an earthquake
Trench ately before the occur-
(Kuril Trench) rence of the earthquake. earthquakes that will influence a particular area of interest. occurred.
This is the first case in
Tokachi-oki (off the shore which an earthquake that
The Nansei-shoto was expected to occur in
of Tokachi)
Trench M8.1 class the Headquarters for ■ A diagram showing the probability distribution of a shaking with ■E
 valuation of a strong ground motion, assuming
(Ryukyu Trench) Earthquake Research
Ranges from 0.9% to 4%
Simultaneous occurrence Promotion’s earthquake intensity 6 or greater hitting within 30 years (Base date: Jan.1, 2013) that an earthquake occurs along an active fault
with Nemuro-oki occurrence long-term
Akita-ken-oki evaluation actually
(off the shore of
M8.3 class
occurred. Probability
Evaluation of a strong ground motion, assuming that the earthquake
Akita prefecture) 26% or greater occurs along the Kego Fault Zone (south-eastern segment)
M7.5 class Northern Sanriku-oki (off the northern  High Ranges from 6% to 26% (made public in April 2008)
Inter-plate earthquakes in About 3% and less shore of Sanriku) Ranges from 3% to 6%
Aki-nada, Iyo-nada, and M8.0 class, Mt8.2 class (*1) Slightly Ranges from 0.1% to 3%
Bungo-suido Ranges from 1% to 20% high Smaller than 0.1% Kitakyushu
Eastern margin of (Earthquakes other than those that have
Ranges from M6.7 to 7.4, about the Sea of Japan The Japan repeatedly occurred)
40% Northern Sadogashima- Trench Ranges from M7.1 to 7.6, about 90%
oki (off the northern
shore of Sadogashima (*1) Mt: Scale of an earthquake measured by tsunami height
Inter-plate earthquakes in island) Miyagi-ken-oki (off the shore of Miyagi
Hyuga-nada M7.8 class Prefecture)
Around M7.6, about 10% Ranges from 3% to 6% M7.4 class, occurrence probability unknown Fukuoka
(Earthquakes other than those that have
repeatedly occurred)
Ranges from M7.0 to 7.3, about 60%

Close to the trench in Southern

Sanriku-oki
M7.9 class, nearly 0% Saga
(Earthquakes other than those that
have repeatedly occurred)
Ranges from M7.2 to 7.6, about 50% 　

Northern Sanriku-oki to Boso-oki

along the Japan Trench
Tsunami earthquakes Seismic intensity
Ranges from Mt8.6 to 9.0
About 30% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.55 lower
5.05 upper
5.56 lower6.06 upper and over
Earthquakes like the off the Pacific Revisions for the seismic hazard map are currently being undertaken.
Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (About 7% for specific regions)
Ranges from Mw8.4 to 9.0 Normal fault type Please keep in mind that the seismic hazard map in this material,
M8.2 class, Mt8.3 class
　
Earthquakes somewhere on Nearly
　 0% including the above diagram, is in the process of revision.
the Nankai Trough Ranges from 4% to 7%
Ranges from M8 to M9 class (Ranges from 1 to 2% for specific
About 70% regions)

Fukushima-ken-oki (off the shore of Utilization of the“Seismic Hazard Map”

Fukushima Prefecture)
M7.4 class (Multiple earthquakes occur in
succession) The“Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map”and“Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults”are prepared by the Earthquake
Along the Sagami Trough Other earthquakes in About 10%
(Earthquakes like the 1923 Minami-Kanto (southern Research Committee. They are not only used to raise awareness about seismic disaster prevention; they also fulfil the following roles:
Great Kanto Earthquake) Kanto area) of about M7 Ibaraki-ken-oki (off the shore Ibaraki
M7.9 class Ranges from M6.7 to 7.2 Prefecture)
Ranges from nearly 0% to class Ranges from M6.9 to 7.6, about 70% Earthquake-related survey and observation Regional inhabitants
2% About 70% (Inter-plate earthquakes that occur
repeatedly) Basic materials for selecting areas to be highlighted Raising of awareness of the local residents
Ranges from M6.7 to 7.2
About 90% (probably larger) for earthquake-related survey and observation. concerning earthquake disaster prevention.

Earthquake disaster prevention measures Risk evaluation

Basic materials for drawing up land utilization plans, seismic designs for facilities or Basic materials for risk evaluation, such as locating important facilities,
structures. Basic materials for the planning of regional disaster prevention schemes. deciding new business locations, or evaluating of insurance rates.

26 27
 Supporting Section Applying the Outcome of Investigative Earthquake Research for Disaster Prevention Part 2

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults

The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps indicate the “possibilities of strong shaking within a certain period at every location The Seismic Hazard Maps for Specified Seismic Source Faults focuses on specific earthquake source faults. They show the
on the map.” shaking intensity of the areas around the faults when the earthquakes occur. For example, they are useful for checking how
In preparing this map, all earthquakes that might influence a particular area have been considered. The considered strong the shaking will be if an earthquake occur at a fault near you. These kinds of maps have been provided and widely
earthquakes in these maps consist of not only earthquakes that have already been through long-term evaluation, but also utilized for estimating damages and drawing up national or regional disaster mitigation plans. To ensure that any user can
earthquakes that are difficult to find source faults for before they occur. This includes earthquakes that occur in an area where obtain the same predicted results, the Earthquake Research Committee has been working toward standardization of the strong
no active fault has yet been found. ground motion prediction method and has formulated the “Recipe for Predicting Strong Ground Motion for Specified Seismic
For the probabilistic seismic hazard maps, three quantities are used. These are the “time span,” “intensity of shakes,” and Source Faults”. At the same time, the committee has been conducting estimations of how strong shaking would be and has
“probability.” To present the maps, a convention was adopted so that two of the quantities were fixed to show the distribution been making a series of seismic hazard maps publics for specified seismic source faults. For the evaluation, the committee has
of the remaining quantity. For example, below is a distribution map of “probability,” that is shown with the “time period” and been selecting earthquakes that may have large impacts on their surrounding areas, out of those that may occur at active faults
“intensity of ground motion” fixed. Reports on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map are publicly available on the or subduction-zones. Seismic hazard maps for specified seismic source faults are openly available on the Headquarters for
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion’s website. Earthquake Research Promotion’s website.
Seismic hazard maps can also be seen on the website of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster
Prevention (NIED), “Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS).” You can zoom-in on the map, find out “the Case 1a Case 1b

probability of ground motion equal to or larger than seismic intensities of 6 lower, occurring within 30 years from the
present,” or the “ground susceptibility to shaking.” You can also check the main active faults or the hypocentral regions of
subduction zone earthquakes. Seismic hazard maps are revised every year.

■ Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps

A distribution map with of the probability of ground motions equal to or larger than seismic intensity of 6 ■ S eismic Hazard Maps
lower, occurring within 30 years into the future (Base date: January 1, 2013) for Specified Seismic
Source Faults
Strong ground motion
Case 2a Case 2b
Probability evaluation, assuming the
26% or greater earthquake occurs along
 High Ranges from 6% to 26% the Kego Fault Zone
Ranges from 3% to 6% (southeastern segment)
Slightly Ranges from 0.1% to 3%
high Smaller than 0.1%

０ １ ２ ３ ４ ５ lower ５upper ６lower ６upper and larger

Intensity

Earthquake source fault model

Surface
Northwest Southeast Northwest Southeast
trace of a
fault

Second
First
Asperity asperity
asperity
(12 km x 8 km) (6 km x 6 km)
(8 km x 8 km)
Assumed
fault
plane

Asperity (an area where the amount of sliding is predominant Rupture initiation point
and the seismic waves generated are strongest)

Two cases having one asperity (Case 1a and Case 1b) and two cases having two different-sized
Revisions for the seismic hazard map are currently being undertaken. asperities (Case 2a and Case 2b) have been assumed. The rupture initiation point was the
Please keep in mind that the seismic hazard map in this material, lowest point of either the northwestern end or the southeastern end.
including the above diagram, is in the process of revision. (1a, 1b, 2a, and 2b are the rupture initiation points. They are also the case names.)

28 29
 Supplementary Material Section
Measures you can take to stay safe from earthquakes
Ⅰ . Before an earthquake occurs:
Earthquakes can hit suddenly. It is important to always be as prepared as you possibly can.

Keep furniture from Be prepared to Confirm the strength of

falling or moving.

Protect Yourself
     avoid injuries. your house and walls.
   ・Set furniture in ・Take measures to keep cupboard and ・Have your home inspected for earthquake
places so as not to window glass from shattering and safety and reinforced if necessary.
cause injuries or scattering.
・Reinforce concrete and block walls so they
hamper your escape. ・Keep a flashlight handy in case of power
failure. won’t collapse.
・Secure the furniture,
TV or personal ・Have slippers or sneakers on hand; they
computers in place. can protect you from shattered glass or
Keep them from others.
falling or moving
with a quake.

Always be ready to Take steps for fire prevention Prepare emergency

Be Prepared and

extinguish fires. and early detection. supplies in advance.

Ready to Act

・Keep a fire extinguisher within easy reach. ・Know where your emergency supplies are.
・Install fire alarms in your home
Also, keep water in the bathtub for firefighting for early warning. ・Plan how to utilize ordinary items such as car
―with children safely kept off. ・Keep electrical appliances jacks and radios in an emergency.
unplugged when not in use.
・To prevent electric or gas fires,
install circuit breakers or outlets
with a seismic shut-off function.

Meet with your family to Know potential Keep informed Train yourself for
discuss what you would do. hazards in your area. about disasters. emergencies.
・Decide each family member’s role in case of ・Keep informed how your area can ・Keep yourself informed about ・Participate in disaster drills. Learn
Keep Calm and

an earthquake : fire prevention, initial fire be dangerous with the local disasters via newspapers, television, skills for self protection, fire prevention,
fighting, and other tasks. hazard map. radio and the Internet. fire fighting, rescue, first aid,
Act Well

・Make sure your family knows how to contact ・Walk around your school/office ・Attend meetings and classes at fire emergency reporting, evacuation, and
area to see what can pose dangers others.
and where to reunite when you cannot stations to learn lessons from past
or help you in an emergency.
return home or are separate after a quake. earthquakes.
Then prepare your own safety
・Confirm evacuation sites map.
and routes as a family.
・Discuss with your family
how to prepare to
cooperate you’re your
neighbors.

(Provided by the Tokyo Fire Department)

Ⅱ . If an earthquake occurs:
In order to stay safe from earthquakes, it is important to know and think about what to do in advance. If there is ever a
tsunami threat, evacuate at once. When doing so, keep the preparations shown on the following page in mind.
When You Feel A Quake Or Hear The Emergency Earthquake Warning...

QUAKE! Protect Yourself First.

・Be prepared and protect yourself from an earthquake when you hear an earthquake warning
announcement or feel a quake.
・Stay under a large table until a quake is gone. Keep yourself safe from
falling or moving objects during a quake.

【High-rise Building with 10 or More Floors】

・Upper floors may be shaken for several minutes.
・Large, slow shakes may let the furniture fall down or move across the
room.
Right After An Earthquake
Keep Calm. Check All Fire Keep Calm. Panic May Make Sure You Have Ways Keep Away From Gateposts
Sources. Put Out Fire Quickly. Cause You Injuries. Out: Open Doors And Windows. And Walls.
・If you were using any sources of ・Be careful of fallen objects or Secure an exit for escape when If you feel an earthquake outside,
fire or heat, turn them off when shattered glass in the home. the shaking stops. stay away from concrete walls
the shaking calms down. ・Stay inside. Roof tiles, broken and other objects which may fall
・If a fire starts, put it out quickly window glass or signboards over.
and calmly . may fall down and hit you.

After An Earthquake
Get The Right Information. Make Sure Your Family And Work Together On Rescue Make Sure Electricity And Gas
Stay Away From Fires And Tsunami. Neighbors Are Safe. And First Aid. Are Off Before Evacuation.
Take The Right Action.
・Take refuge in a temporary assembly spot Get accurate information from After you confirm your family’s Work with your neighbors to free Turn off circuit breakers and the
or an evacuation area when a fire may radio, television, fire stations, safety, check if your neighbors victims from under debris or gas at the main before you
threaten your life in the community. local authorities, etc. are all right. fallen furniture and to give first evacuate.
・Leave the coast as soon as possible for a aid.
higher, safer place when you are hit by a
big quake or hear a tsunami warning at
the seaside.

(Provided by the Tokyo Fire Department)

30
 U
E

The Earthquake and Disaster-Reduction Research Division,

Research and Development Bureau, Ministry of Education,
Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(Secretariat Division of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion)

100-8959 3-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo

Tel: 03-5253-4111 (switchboard) E-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://www.jishin.go.jp/en/
Word to search: headquarters for earthquake

headquarters for earthquake 検索

この冊子に掲載している地震動予測地図について、この地図の作成に当たっては、国土地理院長
T
E
の承認を得て、同院発行の数値地図 25000（空間データ基盤）及び基盤地図情報を使用した。
（承認番号 平 25 情使、第 707 号） March 2014