(DATA ANALYSIS) Civil Engineering: Compilation Problems AND Solutions

[DATA ANALYSIS] Civil Engineering
COMPILATION PROBLEMS
AND
SOLUTIONS
Submitted to; Engr. Anunciado, Sharon Rose P.
Submitted by; Belledo, Rico B. BSCE-3B

CONTENTS:
1 Example of the following:

 Bernoulli Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
 Hypergeometric and Normal Distribution
2 Examples of the following:

 Permutations
 Combinations
 Basic Probabilty

Bernoulli distribution
The Bernoulli distribution is a special case of the binomial distribution with The kurtosis goes to
infinity for high and low values of ... The categorical distribution is the generalization of the
Bernoulli distribution for variables with any constant number of discrete values. The
Beta distribution is the conjugate prior of the Bernoulli distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Bernoulli distribution, named after Swiss
mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, is the discrete probability distribution of a random
variable which takes the value 1 with probability and the value 0 with probability.
Bernoulli distribution example:
The coin toss example is perhaps the easiest way to explain Bernoulli distribution. Let’s
say that the outcome of “heads” is a “success,” while an outcome of “tails” is a “failure.”
In this instance:
 The probability of a successful outcome (landing on heads) is written as p

 The probability of a failure (landing on tails), written as q, is calculated as 1 **–
** p
With a standard coin, we know that there’s a 50/50 chance of landing on either heads or
tails. So, in this case:
 p = 0.5
 q = 1– **0.5
So, in our coin toss example, both p and q = 0.5. On a graph, you’d represent the
probability of a failure as “0” and the probability of success as “1,” both on the y-axis
Binomial distribution
Understanding Binomial Distribution. The binomial distribution is a common
discrete distribution used in statistics, as opposed to a continuous distribution, such as
the normal distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution with parameters n and p is
the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n
independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own
Boolean-valued outcome: success (with probability p) or failure (with probability q = 1 −
p).
Binomial distribution example:
Your basketball team is playing a series of 5 games against your opponent. The winner is
those who wins more games (out of 5).
Let assume that your team is much more skilled and has 75% chances of winning. It
means there is a 25% chance of losing.
What is the probability of your team get 3 wins?
We need to find out.
In this example:
n = 5, p=0.75, q=0.25, x=3

Let’s replace in the formula to get the answer:
Interpretation: the probability that you win 3 games is 0.264

Poisson distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution, named after French
mathematician Denis Poisson, is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the
probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if
these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since
the last event
A discrete frequency distribution which gives the probability of a number of
independent events occurring in a fixed time
Poisson distribution example

Example: Consider a computer system with Poisson job-arrival stream at an average of 2
per minute. Determine the probability that in any one-minute interval there will be
(i) 0 jobs;
(ii) exactly 2 jobs;
(iii) at most 3 arrivals.
(iv) What is the maximum jobs that should arrive one minute with 90 % certainty?
Solution: Job Arrivals with λ = 2
(i) No job arrivals:
P(X = 0) = e −2
= .135
In R
dpois(0, 2)
[1] 0.1353353
(ii) Exactly 3 job arrivals:
P(X = 3) = e −2 2 3 3!
= .18
In R
dpois(3, 2)
[1] 0.1804470
(iii) At most 3 arrivals
P(X ≤ 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3)
= e −2 + e −2 2 1 + e −2 2 2 2! + e −2 2 3 3!
= 0.1353 + 0.2707 + 0.2707 + 0.1805
= 0.8571
In R
ppois(3,2)
[1] 0.8571235 more than 3 arrivals:
P(X > 3) = 1 − P(X ≤ 3)
= 1 − 0.8571
= 0.1429
(iv) Maximum arrivals with at least 90% certainty:
i.e. 90% quantile
Choose k so that
P(X ≤ k) ≥ .9
In R
qpois(.9, 2)
[1] 4
at least a 90% chance that the number of job submissions in any minute does not exceed
4.
Equivalently
less than a 10% chance that there will be more than 4 job submissions in any one
minute.
Hypergeometric distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the hypergeometric distribution is a discrete
probability distribution that describes the probability of successes (random draws for
which the object drawn has a specified feature) in draws, without replacement, from a
finite population of size that contains exactly objects with that feature, wherein each
draw is either a success or a failure.
Hyper geometric distribution example:

A deck of cards contains 20 cards: 6 red cards and 14 black cards. 5 cards are drawn
randomly without replacement. What is the probability that exactly 4 red cards are
drawn?
The probability of choosing exactly 4 red cards is:
P(4 red cards) = # samples with 4 red cards and 1 black card / # of possible 4 card
samples
Using the combinations formula, the problem becomes:
In shorthand, the above formula can be written as:

(6C4*14C1)/20C5
where
 6C4 means that out of 6 possible red cards, we are choosing 4.
 14C1 means that out of a possible 14 black cards, we’re choosing 1.
Solution = (6C4*14C1)/20C5 = 15*14/15504 = 0.0135
The binomial distribution doesn’t apply here, because the cards are not replaced once
they are drawn. In other words, the trials are not independent events. For example, for 1
red card, the probability is 6/20 on the first draw. If that card is red, the probability of
choosing another red card falls to 5/19.
Normal distribution
In probability theory, a normal (or Gaussian or Gauss or Laplace–Gauss) distribution is
a type of continuous probability distribution for a real-valued random variable.
Normal distribution example:

Suppose the current annual salary of all teachers in the United States have a normal
distribution with a mean of 51000 dollars and a standard deviation of 6000 dollars.
Find the probability that the annual salary of a randomly selected teacher would be
between 42000 and 65000.
Solution:
The probability that the annual salary of a randomly selected teacher is between 42000
and 65000 is given by the area under the normal curve of a between x = 42000 and x =
65000.
For x = 42000, z =
For x = 65000, z =
The required probability is given by the area under the normal curve of a between z =
-1.5 and z = 2.33.
This is obtained by adding the area between z = -1.5 and z = 0 and the area between z =
0 and z = 2.33
Using the standard normal distribution table, we see that the area between z = -1.5 and z
= 0 is 0.4332 and the area between z = 0 and z = 2.33 is 0.4901
P(42000 < x < 65000)= P(-1.5 < z < 2.33) = 0.4332 + 0.4901 = 0.9233
This means that about 92.33% of all teachers in the USA earn between 42000 and
65000
Permutations
In mathematics, a permutation of a set is, loosely speaking, an arrangement of its
members into a sequence or linear order, or if the set is already ordered, a
rearrangement of its elements. The word "permutation" also refers to the act or process
of changing the linear order of an ordered set.
Example: 1. Calculate
4 P 2
6 P 5
4 P 4
Solution:
4 P 2 = 4! / (4 - 2)! = 24/2 = 12
6 P 5 = 6! / (6 - 5)! = 6×5×4×3×2×1 / 1! = 720
4 P 4 = 4! / (4 - 4)! = 4! / 0! = 4! = 4×3×2×1 = 24 (We now understand the
need to define 0! = 1)
Example: 2.
How many 3 letter words can we make with the letters in the word LOVE?
Solution:
There are 4 letters in the word love and making 3 letter words is similar to
arranging these 3 letters and order is important since LOV and VOL are
different words because of the order of the same letters L, O and V. Hence it is
a permutation problem.
The number of words is given by
4 P 3 = 4! / (4 - 3)! = 24
Combinations
In mathematics, a combination is a selection of items from a collection, such that the
order of selection does not matter (unlike permutations). For example, given three
fruits, say an apple, an orange and a pear, there are three combinations of two that can
be drawn from this set: an apple and a pear; an apple and an orange; or a pear and an
orange.
Example: 1. Calculate
3 C 2
5 C 5
Solution:
3 C 2 = 3! / [ (3 - 2)!2! ] = 6 / [1 × 2] = 3 (problem of points and lines solved
above in example 6)
5 C 5 = 5! / [(5 - 5)!5! ] = 5! / [0!5!] = 5! / [1 × 5!] = 1 (there is only one way to
select (without order) 5 items from 5 items and to select all of them once!)
Example: 2.
We need to form a 5 a side team in a class of 12 students. How many different
teams can be formed?
Solution:
There is nothing that indicates that the order in which the team members are
selected is important and therefore it is a combination problem. Hence the
number of teams is given by
12 C 5 = 12! / [ (12 - 5)!5! ] = 792
Basic Probability
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how
likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of
an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates
impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. [Note 1][1][2] The higher the probability of
an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of
a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are
both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and
since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2
(which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).
Example:
1. 82 170 of 100 000 children live 40 years and 37 930 of 100 000 children live 70
years. Determine the probability of a 40 years old person to live 70 years.
Solution:
(Conditional probability)
A – Live 70 years, P (A) = 0.3793

B – live 40 years, P (B) = 0.8217
the probability equals 46%.

Example:
2. 32 playing cards include 4 aces and 12 figures. Determine the probability of a
randomly selected card to be an ace or a figure.
Solution:
Probability of two mutually exclusive events
A – selected ace
B - selected figure
The probability of selecting an ace or a figure equals 50%.
Student’s Information
Name: BELLEDO, RICO B.
Program: [DATA ANALYSIS] Civil Engineering-2B
Year and Section: THIRD YEAR SECTION B
Contact No.: 09514375095
E-mail address: rhianne.capell@gmail,com
Facebook Account: RICO BELLEDO
Messenger Account: RICO BELLEDO

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[DATA ANALYSIS] Civil Engineering

Submitted to; Engr. Anunciado, Sharon Rose P.

Submitted by; Belledo, Rico B. BSCE-3B

1 Example of the following:

2 Examples of the following:

Bernoulli distribution example:

 The probability of a successful outcome (landing on heads) is written as p

Binomial distribution example:

What is the probability of your team get 3 wins?

We need to find out.

n = 5, p=0.75, q=0.25, x=3

Interpretation: the probability that you win 3 games is 0.264

Poisson distribution example

Hyper geometric distribution example:

Using the combinations formula, the problem becomes:

In shorthand, the above formula can be written as:

Normal distribution example:

For x = 65000, z =

6 P 5 = 6! / (6 - 5)! = 6×5×4×3×2×1 / 1! = 720

4 P 4 = 4! / (4 - 4)! = 4! / 0! = 4! = 4×3×2×1 = 24 (We now understand the

A – Live 70 years, P (A) = 0.3793

the probability equals 46%.

The probability of selecting an ace or a figure equals 50%.

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