Tutorial 3 Terminal Value After
Tutorial 3 Terminal Value After
($ AUD in Millions Except Per Share Amounts in AUD as Stated and Per Unit Amounts)
Company Name: Michael Hill International Limited Terminal Value - Multiples Method: Terminal Value - Perpetuity Growth Method:
Ticker: ASX:MHJ
Current Share Price: $ 0.68 Median EV / EBITDA of Comps: 7.7 x Expected Long-Term GDP Growth: 2.0%
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 387.821
Baseline Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 7.5 x Baseline Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.5%
Tax Rate: 30.0% Baseline Terminal Value: $ 833.8 Baseline Terminal Value: $ 829.7
Discount Rate (WACC): 9.16% Implied Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.5% Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 7.5 x
Last Fiscal Year: 2018-06-30
(+) PV of Terminal Value: 347.0 (+) PV of Terminal Value: 345.3
Current Equity Value: $ 263.7 (+) Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 325.6 (+) Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: 325.6
(-) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: (7.2) Implied Enterprise Value: $ 672.6 Implied Enterprise Value: $ 670.9
(-) Other Non-Core-Business Assets: -
(+) Total Debt: 35.2 % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 51.6% % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 51.5%
(+) Other Funding Sources: -
Current Enterprise Value: 291.7 (+) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: $ 7.2 (+) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: $ 7.2
(+) Other Non-Core-Business Assets: - (+) Other Non-Core-Business Assets: -
Canada - Store-Level Assumptions: (-) Total Debt: (35.2) (-) Total Debt: (35.2)
Max # Stores: 100 (-) Other Funding Sources: - (-) Other Funding Sources: -
# of New Stores per Year: 3 Implied Equity Value: 644.6 Implied Equity Value: 642.9
Initial Sales per Store Growth Rate: 6.5% Diluted Shares Outstanding: 387.821 Diluted Shares Outstanding: 387.821
Annual Change in Growth Rate: (0.5%)
Minimum Growth Rate: 3.0% Implied Share Price from DCF: $ 1.66 Implied Share Price from DCF: $ 1.66
Premium / (Discount) to Current: 144.4% Premium / (Discount) to Current: 143.8%
Annual Margin Increase: 0.5%
Maximum Margin: 15.0%
Historical Projected
Revenue and Expenses: Units: FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28
# of Stores and Sales per Store:
Revenue by Segment for Continuing Operations:
Australia: $ M AUD $ 309.5 $ 322.0 $ 325.7 $ 315.9 $ 309.9 $ 333.3 $ 354.9 $ 373.2 $ 388.6 $ 403.6 $ 416.8 $ 429.3 $ 442.2
New Zealand: $ M NZD 122.9 122.0 125.2 121.4 120.1 124.9 129.9 135.0 139.0 141.8 144.7 147.5 150.5
Canada: $ M CAD 95.4 112.7 130.8 148.0 162.5 177.3 192.3 207.4 221.3 231.4 238.3 245.5 252.8
Corporate & Other: $ M AUD 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
EBIT Margin by Segment and CapEx: FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28
Operating Income (EBIT) by Segment:
Australia: $ M AUD 50.0 51.7 48.6 45.8 44.9 49.0 52.9 56.4 59.5 62.6 64.6 66.5 68.5
New Zealand: $ M NZD 27.1 27.8 27.8 26.1 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.8 31.0 31.9 32.5 33.2 33.9
Canada: $ M CAD 8.9 12.4 14.6 17.3 19.8 22.5 25.3 28.4 31.4 33.9 35.7 36.8 37.9
Corporate Overhead: $ M AUD (29.7) (28.0) (38.9) (33.9) (34.3) (36.8) (39.2) (41.5) (43.4) (45.1) (46.4) (47.7) (49.1)
% Revenue: % 5.7% 5.1% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx): $ M AUD 24.5 33.1 24.6 25.5 24.2 26.6 27.5 29.6 29.9 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.2
% Revenue: % 4.7% 6.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%
Average Cost of New Stores: $ M / Store 0.500 0.525 0.560 0.575 0.600 0.625 0.650 0.675 0.700 0.725 0.740 0.750 0.750
Estimated Maintenance CapEx: $ M AUD 20.5 29.5 17.8 22.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 25.6 27.1 28.4 29.5 29.8 30.2
Maintenance CapEx per Store: $ M / Store 0.074 0.103 0.061 0.072 0.068 0.072 0.075 0.078 0.081 0.084 0.087 0.088 0.089
Net Interest Expense: $ M AUD (5.5) (3.2) (2.7) (2.7) (2.8) (2.9)
Historical Projected
Free Cash Flow (FCF) Projections: Units: FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28
Revenue from Continuing Operations: $ M AUD $ 522.2 $ 551.1 $ 575.5 $ 580.3 $ 587.9 $ 630.7 $ 672.2 $ 710.7 $ 743.9 $ 771.7 $ 794.6 $ 817.1 $ 840.2
Revenue Growth Rate: % 5.5% 5.5% 4.4% 0.8% 1.3% 7.3% 6.6% 5.7% 4.7% 3.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
Operating Income (EBIT): $ M AUD 54.4 62.3 50.1 53.6 54.6 60.1 65.7 71.3 76.6 81.6 84.7 87.0 89.4
Operating Margin: % 10.4% 11.3% 8.7% 9.2% 9.3% 9.5% 9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 10.6% 10.7% 10.7% 10.6%
Growth Rate: % 12.1% 14.5% (19.5%) 7.0% 1.8% 10.0% 9.4% 8.5% 7.4% 6.4% 3.9% 2.7% 2.7%
(-) Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest: $ M AUD (16.3) (18.7) (15.0) (16.1) (16.4) (18.0) (19.7) (21.4) (23.0) (24.5) (25.4) (26.1) (26.8)
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT): $ M AUD 38.1 43.6 35.1 37.6 38.2 42.1 46.0 49.9 53.6 57.1 59.3 60.9 62.6
(+/-) Deferred Income Taxes: $ M AUD (19.5) 3.4 (6.3) 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
% Book Taxes: % (88.8%) 28.0% (106.3%) 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Net Change in Working Capital: $ M AUD 27.9 (20.5) 20.7 1.4 2.3 12.8 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.9 5.7 5.6 5.8
% Change in Revenue: % 74.4% (70.9%) 84.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
% Revenue: % 5.4% (3.7%) 3.6% 0.2% 0.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
(-) Capital Expenditures: $ M AUD (24.5) (33.1) (24.6) (25.5) (24.2) (26.6) (27.5) (29.6) (29.9) (29.1) (29.5) (29.8) (30.2)
% Revenue: % 4.7% 6.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%
Unlevered Free Cash Flow: $ M AUD $ 38.8 $ 10.9 $ 43.6 $ 37.2 $ 37.9 $ 51.3 $ 51.6 $ 54.6 $ 56.8 $ 58.8 $ 59.6 $ 61.0 $ 62.6
Growth Rate: % N/A (72.0%) 300.9% (14.7%) 1.9% 35.3% 0.6% 5.7% 4.1% 3.4% 1.5% 2.3% 2.7%
Discount Period: # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PV of Unlevered FCF: $ M AUD $ 34.1 $ 31.8 $ 39.4 $ 36.4 $ 35.2 $ 33.6 $ 31.8 $ 29.6 $ 27.7 $ 26.1
EBITDA: $ M AUD $ 71.2 $ 79.8 $ 68.8 $ 73.3 $ 73.0 $ 80.4 $ 86.5 $ 93.9 $ 99.0 $ 103.0 $ 106.2 $ 108.7 $ 111.2
Growth Rate: % 12.0% (13.7%) 6.5% (0.5%) 10.1% 7.6% 8.5% 5.5% 4.0% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3%
Net Profit After Tax: $ M AUD $ 26.3 $ 44.1 $ 34.8 $ 35.7 $ 36.3 $ 40.0
Sensitivity Analyses:
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) * % Debt + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
Maximum $ 993.4 $ 961.1 $ 703.2 $ 894.2 $ 921.2 $ 89.7 $ 106.9 $ 117.1 $ 44.0 $ 55.4 $ 60.9 20.2% 73.9% 27.0% 24.8% 24.4%
75th Percentile 477.9 473.4 364.2 724.0 743.7 58.6 60.6 71.2 36.0 36.4 42.4 11.0% 17.6% 16.2% 15.7% 15.7%
Median $ 295.6 $ 301.1 $ 303.1 $ 349.4 $ 380.1 $ 36.8 $ 47.2 $ 59.6 $ 22.0 $ 25.3 $ 35.5 8.8% 11.4% 12.8% 14.0% 13.8%
25th Percentile 252.8 252.9 250.8 272.0 295.2 27.7 34.2 38.1 17.3 16.4 21.8 3.3% 8.6% 6.7% 6.5% 8.1%
Minimum 106.1 179.8 217.0 244.9 271.9 17.1 20.0 22.6 8.7 10.1 11.7 2.7% 0.8% 4.0% 5.1% 6.4%
Michael Hill International Limited $ 263.7 $ 291.7 $ 575.5 $ 580.3 $ 587.9 $ 68.8 $ 73.3 $ 73.0 $ 34.8 $ 35.7 $ 36.3 1.3% (0.5%) 12.0% 12.6% 12.4%
Maximum $ 993.4 $ 961.1 4.4 x 3.9 x 3.3 x 17.6 x 15.9 x 13.5 x 33.9 x 27.3 x 23.5 x
75th Percentile 477.9 473.4 1.2 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 9.7 x 9.0 x 8.0 x 19.0 x 18.0 x 13.8 x
Median $ 295.6 $ 301.1 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 8.0 x 7.7 x 6.9 x 12.9 x 12.9 x 10.0 x
25th Percentile 252.8 252.9 0.7 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 7.7 x 5.6 x 5.2 x 11.7 x 10.4 x 9.1 x
Minimum 106.1 179.8 0.3 x 0.3 x 0.3 x 6.0 x 4.7 x 3.2 x 9.7 x 9.0 x 7.6 x
Michael Hill International Limited $ 264 $ 291.7 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 4.2 x 4.0 x 4.0 x 7.6 x 7.4 x 7.3 x
Precedent Transactions - Specialty Retail Sellers in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada with Transaction Enterprise Values
Above $100 Million USD Announced Between 20 March 2014 and 20 March 2019
($ USD in Millions; CAD, NZD, and AUD Converted at Exchange Rate at Time of Transaction)
Valuation Summary Range of Valuation Multiples / Premiums Implied Per-Share Value Range
Precedent Transactions:
LTM EV / Revenue: 2.4 x 1.3 x 0.9 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 575.5 0.46 1.32 1.78 1.86 2.43
LTM EV / EBITDA: 14.1 x 10.9 x 10.4 x 7.8 x 3.0 x 68.8 1.10 1.50 1.79 2.30 3.89
LTM P / E: 44.2 x 26.4 x 20.8 x 17.5 x 13.1 x 34.8 1.18 1.57 1.87 2.37 3.96
LTM EV / Revenue:
FY YY EV / Revenue:
FY YY EV / Revenue:
LTM EV / EBITDA:
FY YY EV / EBITDA:
FY YY EV / EBITDA:
LTM P / E: Column N s
Column O
FY YY P / E: 25th to Median
Median to 75th
FY YY P / E:
Precedent Transactions:
LTM EV / Revenue:
LTM EV / EBITDA:
LTM P / E:
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis:
0.09% - 0.10% WACC, 0.01% - 0.02% Terminal FCF Growth Rate:
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50