Equity Research

January 11, 2010 United States of America

Industrials
Ford Motor (F - US$ 11.66) 2-Equal Weight Autos & Auto Parts
Change of Price Target
Focusing on Global Potential

Investment Conclusion
‰ At the Detroit Auto Show, Ford will emphasize the
EPS (US$) (FY Dec)
company's global platform strength by showcasing
the new NA version of its global Focus C-car. As 2008 2009 2010 % Change
we have previously noted, we expect Ford to build Actual Old New St. Est. Old New St. Est. 2009 2010
on its recent op. improvements as it consolidates 1Q 0.20A -0.75A -0.75A -0.75A N/A N/A 0.13E -475% N/A
multiple platforms into one global platform per 2Q -0.62A -0.21A -0.21A -0.21A N/A N/A 0.15E 66% N/A
segment, which will improve global scale and 3Q -1.31A 0.26A 0.26A 0.26A N/A N/A 0.12E 120% N/A
commonality among products. While Ford's 4Q -1.37A 0.32E 0.32E 0.25E N/A N/A 0.18E 123% N/A
strengthening op. performance and improving Year -3.13A -0.38E -0.38E -0.32E 0.60E 0.60E 0.51E 88% 258%
liquidity outlook, along with investor anticipation for P/E N/M 19.4
a rebound in auto demand, have fueled a
meaningful run in Ford stock since 3Q09 results Market Data Financial Summary
were reported (+67% vs +10% for the S&P500),
our revised PT of $11 remains below current Market Cap (Mil.) 41789 Revenue TTM (Mil.) 112059.0
levels, as we remain somewhat cautious given Dividend Yield 0.00
uncertainty around the 2010 macroenvironment. 52 Week Range 11.69 - 1.50

Summary
‰ Due to improved global scale and product, we
expect Ford to benefit from its upcoming C-car
relaunch across all regions. We estimate overall
EBITDA of $11.8 bil and margin of 8.9% in 2011, Stock Overview
up from an estimated $3.5 bil and 3.4% in 2009. Reuters
FORD MOTOR - 1 / 8 / 2 01 0 F
‰ With investors increasingly comfortable with Ford's Bloomberg F
mid-term earnings potential, we are raising our PT 10 ADR
from $9 to $11, which is based on a 4.0x multiple
of our 2011 EBITDA estimate of $11.8 bil.
6

Stock Rating Target Price

2
New: 2-Equal Weight New: US$ 11.00
Volum e
Old: 2-Equal Weight Old: US$ 9.00
250M
Sector View: 2-Neutral
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Source: Lehm anLive

ƒ In light of its agreement with lenders to extend maturity of the majority of its $10.7 bil revolver from 2011 to
2013, Ford could amass a meaningful cash cushion. Indeed, Ford’s decision to prepay a portion of its VEBA
obligations (on top of paying its December obligation entirely in cash) suggests that the company ended
2009 with a strong cash position.

Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 14 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING

ON PAGE 16
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FORD FOCUS REPRESENT SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE IN GLOBAL PLATFORM SHARING

AUTOMAKERS WORLDWIDE PUSHING FOR SCALE AND COMMONALITY

In our view, the strategic lever most impactful to differentiating performance over the mid-term is likely to be the quest for global scale and
commonality – especially as OEMs face the unintended consequences of scrappage programs in the form of potential pricing pressures and
sticky labor costs and capacity. Moreover, the competitive edge is likely to evolve from simply posting 1mn unit scale in key volume
platforms, to exploiting the scale through common engineering and parts specifications (not just purchasing volumes).

Global OEMs are evolving through three distinct phases in their search for scale and commonality of cost savings. In phase 1, scale-driven
procurement, OEMs sought bulk purchasing price discounts from suppliers. Rather then offering any 'win-win' solutions, OEMs threatened
to pull business from suppliers unless demands for price cuts were met. The global element was not focused around engineering
commonality, but simply a brute threat that if supplier fails to cut price in one region, the OEM would punish the supplier by taking away
business in another region. This approach was first launched in the early 1990s at GM and then VW (brought over by Jose Ignacio Lopez
de Arriortua, whom VW hired away from GM). While saving up to 20% on purchased parts, with annual price downs of 1 to 2 percent, the
procurement approach helped OEM profits - although at the expense of supplier profits and arguably innovation. Moreover, the
procurement approach failed to address internal OEM costs such as engineering. The sheer brute force of Phase 1 favored the
manufacturers with the largest global production volumes (e.g. GM), regardless of the degree of commonality across platforms and
geographies.

Most OEMs are still pursuing varying degrees of phase 2, platform commonality. In this approach, OEMs seek to communize parts across
vehicles within a platform -- at first, variants within a region and then in vehicles across regions. For the OEM, platform commonality
unlocks engineering savings, up to 60 percent on the common vehicles depending on how far out the scale curve. If extended globally,
OEMS can gain further benefit from leveraging lower cost production sites and by supporting smaller-run variants to address niche
segments. Platform commonality can be win-win for suppliers, who can similarly leverage their engineering and tooling costs across larger
runs, as well as more easily move production across different plants in different geographies. Japanese OEMs such as Honda, with their
export driven approach, were early leaders, although virtually all OEMs are at some stage of phase 2. Overall savings can range from 5 –
10%, depending on scale and commonality.

Figure 1: Estimated Impact of Increasing Commonality

Potential Pro forma margin

Cost components Est. cost improvement impact (bp) Comment
Impact on Product Cost view
EBIT 5%
Labor 5% 20% 100 Capacity utilization
Materials and engineering 90%
of which:

Vehicle-specific 25% 5% 124 Design/procurement

Powertrain 25% 10% 248 Engineering/mfg
Additional common
components 11% 7% 79 Design/procurement
Modular architectures 29% 15% 439 Engineering/mfg
Product potential 889

Impact on Capex/ER&D view

Capex and R&D/sales 5.5% 70% 385
Engineering 3.0% 60% 180
Total ER&D 8.5% 66% 565

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital estimates

Phase 3 involves modular architectures - that is, parts commonality not just within a platform, but across platforms (and across geography).
By further driving down the scale curve additional efficiencies result - as well as lowering the overall complexity of the organization and
supporting manufacturing flexibility (multiple platforms on the same assembly lines). VW is acknowledged by competitors as the global
benchmark for modularity, with plans to compress to two sets of modules (MQB for traverse, generally volume) and MLB for longitudinal,
generally premium).

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The New Ford Focus, which Ford is showcasing at the Detroit Auto Show this week, is a key launch for Ford to move vertically toward
greater commonality in the C class, from about 35% (shown on chart below) to 60% commonality. When intra and cross platform
commonality is considered in, for example, the C segment, we believe that VW, with its modular approach, and Hyundai, with its scale of the
common Elantra platform, capture the greatest scale economies. While Renault/Nissan has scale, it appears to have not driven true
platform cost sharing, highlighting an opportunity to drive the alliance to the next level Both PSA and Fiat fall short on sheet scale, although
both are likely to have a moderate level of commonality.

Figure 2: Manufacturer’s Scale vs estimated commonality – Key C platforms (prior Ford Focus)

HIGH VW
Degree of commonality

Toyota Honda Hyundai

Fiat

MED PSA
GM

Ford
Renault-Nissan
LOW

0 1,000 2,000
Scale - units 000

Source: CSM & Barclays Capital Analysis

FORD FOCUS IS KEY MOVE TO EXPLOIT SCALE

th
While Ford is a significant global player in total volume, with an estimated 6 place position in global sales in 2009, the company, like other
global OEMs, is seeking greater global scale and commonality as it consolidates multiple platforms for high volume small and medium sized
vehicle segments into a single global platform per segment.

Figure 3: Global Industry Sales by OEM – 2009E

Toyota
11%
Other
28% VW
10%

GM
Suzuki 9%
3%

PSA Renault-Nissan
5% 9%
Honda Hyundai
5% Ford 7%
7%
Fiat + Chrysler
6%

Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis

In particular, Ford currently has four major platforms underpinning its C and D segment vehicles. For its C cars (Ford Focus), Ford
produces international versions using the C1 platform and the US version using the C170 platform, requiring additional R&D and product
costs. Similarly, the European D car (Ford Mondeo) is built off of the CD-EU platform, while D cars in America and Asia (Ford Fusion and
Mazda 6) use the CD1-3 platform.

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Figure 4: Global Production of Ford’s Major C and D Segment Platforms – 2008

1,549

908

524

349

Ford C1 Ford C170 CD-EU CD1-3

Europe Asia Middle East/Africa North America South America

Source: CSM, Barclays Capital analysis

Ford’s strategy to consolidate its C car platform into one global platform starting in late 2010 provides the company with improved scale that
is competitive with other global OEMs with significant C car sales. In total, Ford expects to develop up to 10 models using the global C-car
platform, and estimates that global sales could exceed 2 mil vehicles on an annually basis by 2012. According to CSM, global production of
Ford’s global C car platform could reach 1.8 mil units in 2011 (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Global Production of Major C Segment Platforms by OEM (‘000 units) – 2011E

1,946
1,788 1,814

1,426
1,369 1,352 1,372
1,301
1,132

Fiat TYPE Ford C1 GM Global Honda C5 Hyundai HD PSA PF2 Renault- Toyota MC- VW
199 (Punto) (Focus) Delta (Civic) (Elantra) (308) Nissan C C (Corolla) PQ35/PQ36
(Cruze) (Sentra) (Golf)

Europe Asia Middle East/Africa North America South America

Source: CSM, Barclays Capital analysis

Ford’s plan to bring its global B car to additional regions such as the US could improve global volumes to around 800k units by 2011. This
would bring Ford above Fiat and GM, and roughly in line with PSA and Toyota. Nevertheless, Renault-Nissan and VW are expected to
maintain the largest volumes in the industry, with VW likely leading when considering both volume and commonality within its platform.

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Figure 6: Global Production of Major B Segment Platforms by OEM (‘000 units) – 2011E

2,103

1,460

1,215
1,112
926
796
745
596

378

Fiat TYPE Ford B2e GM Global Honda GSP Hyundai PB PSA PF1 Renault- Toyota VW
169 (500) (Fiesta) Gamma (Fit) (Accent) (207) Nissan B NBC-2 PQ24/PQ25
(Aveo) (Versa) (Yaris) (Polo)

Europe Asia Middle East/Africa North America South America

Source: CSM, Barclays Capital analysis

Longer term, Ford should benefit from further global platform consolidations, as its medium vehicles on CD-EU and CD1-3 platforms
migrate to the global CD4 platform starting in 2012. While Toyota’s MC-M platform (which underpins C/D vehicles like the Camry) is
expected to remain the volume leader in the D segment, CSM estimates that Ford will produce 934k units using its CD4 platform in 2014,
within competitive range of other major OEMs (see Figure 7). For comparison, GM is expected to produce 1.05 mil vehicles under Global
Epsilon, its consolidated global D car platform.

Figure 7: Global Production of Major D Segment Platforms by OEM (‘000 units) – 2014E
3,685

1,208 1,221
1,048 994
934
842

315 233

Fiat C-Evo Ford CD4 GM Global Honda D-5 Hyundai PSA PF3 Renault- Toyota MC- VW MLB
(Milano) (Fusion) Epsilon (Accord) NF/CM (408) Nissan D M (Camry) (A4)
(Malibu) (Sonata) (Altima)

Europe Asia Middle East/Africa North America South America

Source: CSM, Barclays Capital analysis

CLASS LEADING C-CAR COULD FURTHER IMPROVE MID-TERM PROFITS

In addition to improved global scale and commonality, we believe that Ford could leverage a class leading C-segment offering to lift its mid-
term potential across all regions. At Ford’s analyst day last September, we were able to take a test drive of the Euro-spec Fiesta B-car. The
drivability and interior design of the Fiesta (which was superior, in our view, to the refreshed US Fusion and Taurus) underscored the
strength of the Ford Europe small car product line and its potential appeal to US buyers, in our view.

In the US, Ford should have a clear running field for 1H11 until the likely mid year launch of the Hyundai Elantra, albeit with some
competition from a 2011-12 (date uncertain) Honda Civic launch, while the historically strong Toyota Corolla ages off of a not particularly

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inspired 2009 redesign. GM has the Chevrolet Cruze entrant that is undoubtedly an improvement on the current Cobalt, but we do not
expect it to contend, as the Focus might, for C car class leadership. In the US, Ford’s ability to price up the new Focus remains uncertain;
Ford management pointed to the option take rate in the current Focus, as well as the positioning of the Fiesta at a lower price point, as
potential support for a higher transaction price for the next-generation Focus in the US. Nevertheless, building off of meaningful cost actions
the company has taken, we expect Ford North America to post pre-tax results of $5.2 bil and margin of 7.3% in 2011.

Figure 8: US C-Segment Product Cycle – 2007-13E

10

7 Caliber
Focus
6
Cobalt/Cruze
5 Civic
Elantra
4
Sentra

3 Corolla

0
CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013

Source: Ward’s Auto, Barclays Capital analysis

We expect a greater profit contribution from the redesigned Focus in Europe. The Focus should enjoy in 2011 a relatively less crowded
field in Europe, with only PSA launching in the volume C segment. Moreover, we expect a rebound in European C overall in 2011 as mix
renormalizes after the scrappage-program induced A and B segment lift fades.

Figure 9: European C-Segment (non-premium level) Product Cycle – 2007-13E

7

6
Fiat Stilo/Bravo
Ford Focus/C-Max
5
Opel Astra
Seat Leon
4
Skoda Octavia
Volksw agen Golf
3
Citroen C4
Peugeot 306/307/308
2
Renault Megane
Toyota Auris
1

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis

While GM’s decision to keep Opel leaves GM in a more competitive position in Europe, Ford remains a strong player in the region (4th
position in both C-segment and total industry sales), which should enable the company to improve sales as well as region profitability in the
mid-term. As a result, we estimate that Europe pre-tax profit in 2011 could reach $1.2 bil or 3.5% margin. Indeed, Ford’s CFO reinforced
our view by indicating at the Analyst Day that the company expects to achieve margins above the middle range of European OEM margins
(we calculate to be around 3-4%), but behind profit leader VW (who leverages both its European scale as well as its dominance of the
generally profitable German market).

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Figure 10: European Industry Sales by OEM – 2009E Figure 11: European C-Segment Sales by OEM – 2009E

BMW
3%
BMW Other Other
VW Fiat + Chrysler
4% 9% 7%
18% 3%
VW
Hyundai Daimler 27%
4% 3%
Daimler Toyota
5% 5%

Renault-Nissan Hyundai
Toyota
14% 5%
5%

GM GM
9% 9% Renault-Nissan
PSA 17%
Fiat + Chrysler Ford
13% PSA
9% Ford 10%
10% 11%

Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis

In addition to developed markets, we expect Ford to benefit from growth in the BRIC countries. Specifically, Ford holds the 4th position in
industry sales in Brazil, which, boosted by government stimulus, remained fairly strong in 2009. Given Ford’s robust performance in South
America (of all the company’s regions, Ford South America continues to post the strongest margins), we expect Ford to target share
expansion in the region, supported by the company’s recent announcement to invest 4 bil reais ($2.3 bil) over the next 5 years to increase
plant capacity in Brazil (see “Ford to Invest $2.3 Bil for Expansion in Brazil, Bloomberg, November 20, 2009). As a result, by 2011 we
estimate that pre-tax profits and margins could reach $1.3 bil and 14.9% respectively, up from an estimated $582 mil and 8.3% in 2009.

Figure 12: Brazil Industry Sales by OEM – 2009E

Hyundai
3%
Other
Honda
5%
5% Fiat + Chrysler
Renault-Nissan 24%
5%

PSA
5%

Ford
10%

VW
23%
GM
20%

Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis

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While Ford holds less commanding shares in China and India, we nevertheless expect Ford to leverage its strong small car offerings to
support growth in Asia.

Figure 13: China Industry Sales by OEM – 2009E Figure 14: India Industry Sales by OEM – 2009E

VW
Fiat 1% Other
VW 1% 13%
Other 12% Ford
24% SAIC GM 2%
Ford 2%
9% Suzuki
2%
Toyota 40%
Geely Hyundai
2%
2% 7%
Honda
Brilliance Jinbei Changan 4%
2% Automobile
Dongfeng Motor Hyundai
GM 6%
3% 12%
FAW 6%
4% Honda Toyota
5% 5% Tata
Chery
Beiqi Foton Renault-Nissan 23%
4%
4% 5%

Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis Source: JD Power, Barclays Capital analysis

Overall, we expect total automotive pre-tax profit of $5.9 bil (excluding Volvo) and total automotive EBITDA of $11.8 bil in 2011.

Figure 15: Ford Segment Summary – 2007-11E

Ford North America 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09E 4Q09E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Revenue ($ mil) 10,161 10,826 13,718 16,372 71,085 53,382 51,077 61,674 70,556
Pre-tax income ex charge ($ mil) -637 -851 357 1,020 (3,446) (5,830) (111) 2,733 5,185
Pre-tax margin -6.3% -7.9% 2.6% 6.2% -4.8% -10.9% -0.2% 4.4% 7.3%

Car production ('000 units) 87 161 170 200 826 821 618 765 900
Truck production ('000 units) 262 290 320 370 2,006 1,403 1,242 1,475 1,650
Total wholesale sales ('000 units) 354 458 516 643 2,890 2,329 1,971 2,374 2,702

Revenue per unit $28,703 $23,638 $26,585 $25,460 $24,597 $22,921 $25,913 $25,981 $26,111

Ford Europe 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Revenue ($ mil) 5,993 7,234 7,584 7,657 36,246 39,017 28,468 28,000 33,587
Pre-tax income ex charge ($ mil) -550 138 193 194 997 1,060 (25) 369 1,179
Pre-tax margin -9.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% -0.1% 1.3% 3.5%

Total units ('000) 343 400 393 400 1,918 1,820 1,536 1,413 1,583
Revenue per unit $17,472 $18,085 $19,298 $19,128 $18,898 $21,438 $18,530 $19,810 $21,217

Ford South America 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Revenue ($ mil) 1,404 1,840 2,089 1,710 7,491 8,648 7,043 7,674 8,363
Pre-tax income ex charge ($ mil) 63 86 247 186 1,172 1,230 582 800 1,250
Pre-tax margin 4.5% 4.7% 11.8% 10.9% 15.6% 14.2% 8.3% 10.4% 14.9%

Total units ('000) 93 111 108 100 436 432 412 433 458
Revenue per unit $15,097 $16,577 $19,343 $17,120 $17,182 $20,019 $17,099 $17,710 $18,241

Ford Asia 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Revenue ($ mil) 1,165 1,206 1,484 1,244 7,079 6,474 5,099 5,625 6,142
Pre-tax income ex charge ($ mil) -96 -25 27 21 222 77 (73) 49 202
Pre-tax margin -8.2% -2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 3.1% 1.2% -1.4% 0.9% 3.3%

Total units ('000) 114 124 139 109 535 464 486 515 546
Revenue per unit $10,219 $9,726 $10,676 $11,428 $13,232 $13,953 $10,495 $10,922 $11,250

Volvo 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Revenue ($ mil) 2,645 2,883 2,995 3,297 17,874 14,679 11,820 13,468 14,482
Pre-tax income ex charge ($ mil) -255 -231 -135 -119 (165) (1,466) (741) (301) (215)
Pre-tax margin -9.6% -8.0% -4.5% -3.6% -0.9% -10.0% -6.3% -2.2% -1.5%

Total units ('000) 69 79 76 85 482 359 309 349 373

Revenue per unit $38,333 $36,494 $39,408 $38,880 $37,082 $40,889 $38,277 $38,596 $38,788

Other Pre-tax income ($ mil) -445 -136 -243 -300 120 -1275 -1124 -1946 -1939
Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital estimates
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MANAGEMENT’S BALANCE SHEET STRATEGY COULD RESULT IN MEANINGFUL CASH CUSHION

In the first three quarters of 2009, Ford management executed various actions that we believe are positive steps forward for the company,
including

ƒ Reaching an agreement with the UAW to convert its $13.1 bil of VEBA obligations due in 2010 into two notes (of which half is
payable in stock) and amending its labor agreements to eliminate Jobs Bank and suspend COLA and bonus payments.

ƒ Retiring $10 bil of debt through debt exchange offers

ƒ Raising $1.6 bil of equity

After posting 3Q results, Ford announced three additional actions that further enhance the company’s liquidity position. First, Ford issued
$2.875 bil of senior convertible notes, which settled on November 9th. Net proceeds from the offering were $2.810 bil. The convertible, due
November 15, 2016, pays 4.25% per annum and has a conversion rate of 107.5269 shares per $1,000 in principal. This translates to a
conversion price of $9.30 per share, and at full conversion, 309 mil new shares.

Second, Ford began in December a $1 bil equity drip, which the company indicated could take several months to complete.

Third, Ford reached an agreement with its lenders to extend the maturity of the majority of its $10.7 bil revolver from December 15, 2011
through November 30, 2013. The commitment level has been reduced by 82% to $8.8 bil, which is broken out between a $7.2 bil is a
revolver maturing in November 2013 and a $724 mil term loan maturing in December 2013. Of the previous commitment level, lenders
elected not to extend $886 mil, which will expire in December 2011.

Figure 16: Revised Credit Facility Agreement

$ bil maturity
Previous agreement 10.7 12/15/2011
Reduction of prev commitment 1.9 12/3/2009
Total revised commitment 8.8

New revolver 7.2 11/30/2013

New term loan 0.7 12/15/2013
Portion not extended to 2013 0.9 12/15/2011
Total revised commitment 8.8

Source: Company filings

With strengthening operating performance and an improved liquidity outlook, we continue to expect Ford to meet its minimum cash needs
through 2011. Taking into account $5.9 bil in awarded DOE loans and $8.8 bil of its refinanced credit facility, we estimate that Ford could
end 2011 with $26.0 bil of cash, well above the $10 mil minimum we estimate to be Ford’s working cash needs (or $8 mil assuming sale of
Volvo).

Indeed, Ford’s decision to prepay an additional portion of its VEBA obligations on top of paying its December 31st obligation entirely in cash
(in lieu of paying Note B obligations in stock) suggests that the company ended 2009 with a strong cash position.

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Figure 17: Ford High Level Cash Flow – 2007-11E

2009
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009E FY 2010E FY 2011E
(in $ billions) Mar Jun Sep DecE
Operating-Related Cash Flows
Automotive Pre-tax profits (1.9) (1.0) 0.4 1.0 (1.1) (6.2) (1.5) 1.7 5.7
Capital Spending (1.4) (1.0) (1.0) (1.6) (6.0) (6.6) (5.0) (5.6) (6.3)
Depreciation & Amortization 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 6.9 6.0 4.3 4.4 4.5
Change in Receivables, Inventory and
Trade Payables 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.5 (0.4) (9.4) 3.8 (1.0) (1.1)
Other (2.3) (0.9) (0.4) 0.2 2.8 (3.2) (3.5) (1.4) (0.3)
Total Automotive (3.5) (1.0) 1.3 1.3 2.3 (19.5) (1.9) (2.0) 2.3

Other Changes in Cash

Personnel Separation Programs (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) - (3.0) (0.7) (0.7) - -
Pension/OPEB Contributions (0.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.6) - (1.0) (1.4) (1.3) (0.5)
Cash Transfer to ST VEBA/UAW-Ford
Temp Asset Account 2.0 (0.3) (0.7) - 2.7 (4.6) 1.0 - -
All Other including Tax Refunds (0.2) 1.8 1.9 0.1 2.6 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.6
Change in Auto Sector Debt 10.4 (0.4) 0.7 (0.3) (0.3) 10.4 1.9 0.1
Dividends to Shareholders - - - - - - - - -
Total Change in Gross Cash 7.9 (0.3) 2.9 0.5 4.6 (21.3) 11.0 (0.9) 2.5

Gross Cash Beginning Balance 13.4 21.3 21.0 23.8 33.9 34.6 13.4 24.3 23.5
Gross Cash Ending Balance 21.3 21.0 23.8 24.3 34.6 13.4 24.3 23.5 26.0

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital estimates

RAISING PRICE TARGET TO $11

As investors are increasingly comfortable with Ford’s rebound earnings potential, we are raising our price target from $9 to $11. We value
Ford using a 4.0x multiple of our 2011 EBITDA estimate of $11.8 billion, a $11.6 billion value for Ford's stake in Ford Credit and $18.0 bil of
excess cash (updated for the recently refinanced credit facility). Assuming all VEBA obligations are paid in cash, liabilities would total $38.5
billion, leaving $38.4 billion of equity value, or $11 per share.

Previously, we were valuing Ford using a 4.0x multiple of our 2011 EBITDA estimate of $11.8 bil, a $11.6 billion value for Ford's stake in
Ford Credit and $18.9 billion of excess cash. Assuming all VEBA obligations are paid in cash, liabilities would total $38.5 billion, leaving
$39.4 billion of equity value. Our previous price target of $9 was discounted back by 20% for 2010.

Figure 18: Ford Valuation

Assuming 50% of VEBA obligations paid in stock Assuming all VEBA obligations paid in cash
(in bil) (in bil)
Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

EBITDA (2011) 11.8 12.2 Secured debt EBITDA (2011) 11.8 12.2 Secured debt
x EBITDA multiple 4.0x 12.6 Unsecured debt x EBITDA multiple 4.0x 12.6 Long-term debt
5.9 DOE loans 5.9 DOE loans

EV of auto ops 47.4 4.0 VEBA Note A (PV) EV of auto ops 47.4 4.0 VEBA Note A (PV)
3.8 VEBA Note B (PV)
Excess cash 19.8 Excess cash 18.0
Ford Credit stake 11.6 Ford Credit stake 11.6
4.0 Subtotal VEBA 7.8 Subtotal VEBA

Total EV 78.8 34.6 Total liabilities Total EV 76.9 38.5 Total liabilities

44.1 Equity value at 4x 38.4 Equity value at 4x

Debt/equity 2.9x Debt/equity 3.3x
$10.18 per share $10.92 per share

Memo: Memo:
4.3 Pro forma shares 3.5 Pro forma shares
3.3 Current share count 3.3 Current share count
0.1 RSU awards 0.1 RSU awards
0.1 Equity offering 0.1 Equity offering
0.8 VEBA dilution (at $8 stock price) 0.0 VEBA dilution (at $8 stock price)

Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital estimates

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Despite the increase, our price target remains slightly below current trading levels, as we are cautious around the recent run fueled by
investor anticipation for a rebound in auto demand. Indeed, we note that if the economy’s and Ford’s mid-term outlook improves, investors
may increasingly move to a P/E valuation, which implies upside to our $11 price target. Applying a conservative 10x multiple to our above-
the-Street 2011 EPS estimate of $1.50 would imply valuation of $15, while using the same multiple on consensus 2011 EPS of $1.11 would
imply equity valuation at our price target. Given the uncertainty around the macroeconomic environment for 2010, we are comfortable
maintaining an EV/EBITDA valuation approach and $11 price target.

11
 Ford Motor Company -- Income Statement (Dollars In Millions)a
2008 2009
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecE 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Sales $34,972 $34,228 $27,733 $25,267 $21,368 $23,989 $27,870 $30,281 $143,253 $155,753 $122,200 $103,508 $116,441 $133,130
Cost of Goods Sold (Ex Items Below) 29,741 30,017 26,166 24,253 19,536 21,661 24,028 25,244 126,486 136,987 110,177 90,469 99,401 110,961
Gross Profit 5,231 4,211 1,567 1,014 1,832 2,328 3,842 5,038 16,767 18,766 12,023 13,040 17,040 22,169
Gross Margin 15.0% 12.3% 5.7% 4.0% 8.6% 9.7% 13.8% 16.6% 11.7% 12.0% 9.8% 12.6% 14.6% 16.7%
Depreciation 744 761 741 807 555 487 538 675 3,602 3,474 3,053 2,255 2,311 2,354
Amort. of Tooling/Intangibles (pre-'02) 766 788 613 601 526 475 464 550 3,377 3,289 2,768 2,015 2,065 2,103
Postretirement Expenses (Auto only) (340) (340) (340) (590) 237 237 237 237 4,365 2,188 (1,610) 948 398 651
SG&A 3,109 2,955 2,740 2,601 2,044 2,111 2,027 2,423 10,797 9,993 11,405 8,605 9,024 9,679
SG&A As A % Of Sales 8.9% 8.6% 9.9% 10.3% 9.6% 8.8% 7.3% 8.0% 7.5% 6.4% 9.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.3%
Operating Income 952 47 (2,187) (2,405) (1,530) (982) 576 1,153 (5,373) (278) (3,593) (783) 3,242 7,382
Operating Margin-Automotive 2.7% 0.1% -7.9% -9.5% -7.2% -4.1% 2.1% 3.8% -3.8% -0.2% -2.9% -0.8% 2.8% 5.5%
Net Interest Expense/(Income) 436 677 706 874 420 95 168 183 172 1,036 2,693 866 1,688 1,681
Other Expense/(Income) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Loss in Equity of Affiliates/(Income) (136) 40 13 0 (30) (58) (38) (30) (261) (213) (83) (156) (150) (175)
Automotive-Restructuring Charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11,750 3,872 0 0 0 0
Automotive-Loss on sale/(Gain on sale) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax Income-Automotive 652 (670) (2,906) (3,279) (1,920) (1,019) 446 1,001 (17,035) (4,972) (6,203) (1,492) 1,705 5,876
Pre-tax Income-Automotive (Ex Items) 652 (670) (2,906) (3,279) (1,920) (1,019) 446 1,001 (5,285) (1,099) (6,203) (1,492) 1,705 5,876
Automotive Pretax Margin (Ex Items) 1.9% -2.0% -10.5% -13.0% -9.0% -4.2% 1.6% 3.3% -3.7% -0.7% -5.1% -1.4% 1.5% 4.4%
Pre-tax Income-Financial Services 67 (334) 159 (384) (62) 595 661 350 2,254 1,222 (492) 1,544 1,327 1,631
GRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fin/Serv-Loss on sale/(Gain on sale) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax Income-Fin. Servces (Ex Items) 67 (334) 159 (384) (62) 595 661 350 2,254 1,222 (492) 1,544 1,327 1,631
Pre-tax Income-Total Company 719 (1,004) (2,747) (3,663) (1,982) (424) 1,107 1,351 (14,781) (3,750) (6,695) 52 3,032 7,507
Provision for Taxes 89 283 179 (342) (201) 124 155 100 (1,923) 189 209 178 561 1,389
Tax Rate 12.4% -28.2% -6.5% 9.3% 10.1% -29.2% 14.0% 7.4% 13.0% -5.0% -3.1% 342.0% 18.5% 18.5%
Minority Interest-No longer Trust Pref Div 122 89 51 (48) 11 90 79 50 104 247 214 230 242 254
Extraordinary Items/(Gains) & Disco. Ops 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (2) 0 0 0 0 215
Net Income 508 (1,376) (2,977) (3,273) (1,792) (638) 873 1,201 (12,960) (4,186) (7,118) (356) 2,230 5,649
Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Income Available To Common 508 (1,376) (2,977) (3,273) (1,792) (638) 873 1,201 (12,960) (4,186) (7,118) (356) 2,230 5,649
Addback of Aftertax Non-Recurring Items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10,119 3,823 0 0 0 0
Net Income (Ex Non-Recurring Items) 508 (1,376) (2,977) (3,273) (1,792) (638) 873 1,201 (2,843) (363) (7,118) (356) 2,230 5,864
Numerator Adj. for Dilutive Securities 66 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 0 0 259 262 219 219
Basic EPS $0.23 $(0.62) $(1.31) $(1.37) $(0.75) $(0.21) $0.27 $0.36 $(6.89) $(1.96) $(3.13) $(0.33) $0.65 $1.72
Diluted EPS 0.20 (0.44) (0.97) (1.03) (0.55) (0.17) 0.26 0.32 (6.78) (1.61) (2.29) (0.14) 0.60 1.50
EPS (Ex Items) $0.20 ($0.62) ($1.31) ($1.37) ($0.75) ($0.21) $0.26 $0.32 ($1.52) ($0.18) ($3.13) ($0.38) $0.60 $1.50

Company EPS Guidance na --

Dividends Per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Basic Shares 2,188 2,237 2,279 2,384 2,397 3,001 3,259 3,304 1,872 1,978 2,272 2,990 3,419 3,419
Diluted Shares 2,908 2,957 2,999 3,104 3,117 3,351 3,584 3,938 1,872 1,978 2,992 3,498 4,053 4,053
Year-to-Year Pct. Change

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Automotive Revenues -9.5% -14.7% -23.5% -38.0% -38.9% -29.9% 0.5% 19.8% -7.3% 8.7% -21.5% -15.3% 12.5% 14.3%
Operating Profit na -90.3% na na na na na na na na na na na 127.7%
Pretax Auto Profit na na na na na na na na na na na na na 244.7%
Pretax Financial Services Profit -77.1% na -71.5% na na na na na -61.7% -45.8% na na -14.1% 22.9%
Net Income (Ex Items) na na na na na na na na na na na na na 163.0%
Earnings Per Share (Ex items) na na na na na na na na na na na na na 148.4%
Expense Analysis
Depreciation 2.1% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8%
Amort. of Tooling/Intangibles (pre-'02) 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%
Postretirement Expenses -1.0% -1.0% -1.2% -2.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 3.0% 1.4% -1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5%
Interest Expense Net 1.2% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 2.2% 0.8% 1.4% 1.3%
Additional Margin Information
Automotive EBITDA in $ $2,462 $1,596 ($833) ($997) ($449) ($20) $1,578 $2,378 $1,606 $6,485 $2,228 $3,487 $7,618 $11,839
Automotive EBITDA Margin 7.0% 4.7% -3.0% -3.9% -2.1% -0.1% 5.7% 7.9% 1.1% 4.2% 1.8% 3.4% 6.5% 8.9%
Automotive EBITDAP $2,122 $1,256 ($1,173) ($1,587) ($212) $217 $1,815 $2,615 $5,970 $8,673 $618 $4,435 $8,016 $12,490
Automotive EBITDAP Margin 6.1% 3.7% -4.2% -6.3% -1.0% 0.9% 6.5% 8.6% 4.2% 5.6% 0.5% 4.3% 6.9% 9.4%
Sources: Company reports and Barclays Capital. a Except where noted and per-share data. E Barclays Capital estimate.
Equity Research
 a
Ford Motor Company -- Cash Flow Model ($mm)
2008 2009
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecE 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Operations-Automotive
Net Income 652 (670) (2,906) (3,279) (1,920) (1,019) 446 1,001 (5,200) (363) (6,203) (1,492) 1,705 5,661
Depreciation and Amortization 1,510 1,549 1,354 1,540 1,081 962 1,002 1,225 7,100 6,926 5,953 4,270 4,375 4,457
Deferred Taxes -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 (880) 0 0 0 0
Non-cash portion of Losses in Affiliates (136) 40 13 143 (30) (58) (38) (30) (253) (175) 60 (156) (150) (175)
Pension/Opeb Noncash Acr. (Auto only) (600) (200) (100) (100) (400) (300) (100) 237 4,365 (1,164) (1,000) (563) 398 651
Pension/OPEB Funding & Out of Pocket (2,600) (2,700) (2,500) (810) (800) (7,800) (810) (1,655) (1,185)
Non-Cash Charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
Cash Payouts Against Restrux Charges (100) (200) (200) (200) (300) (200) (200) 0 (1,638) (756) (700) (700) - -
Other/Non-Cash Items/Currency Adj. (1,058) 1,936 1,857 187 (1,696) (290) 505 206 960 953 2,922 (1,275) (1,294) (134)
Change in Working Capital (1,600) (1,500) (3,600) (2,700) 1,000 1,000 1,300 498 (2,000) (357) (9,400) 3,798 (1,012) (1,146)
Cash from Automotive Operations ($3,932) ($1,745) ($6,082) ($4,409) ($2,265) $95 $2,915 $2,326 2,533 4,184 ($16,168) $3,071 $2,367 $8,129
Net sales/(purchs.) of trading securities -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (6,762) 4,537 -- -- -- --
Net Cash Flow from Auto Operations (3,932) (1,745) (6,082) (4,409) (2,265) 95 2,915 2,326 (4,229) 8,721 (16,168) 3,071 2,367 8,129
Investing-Automotive
Capital Spending (1,449) (1,628) (1,738) (1,805) (1,361) (1,018) (998) (1,600) (6,809) (5,971) (6,620) (4,977) (5,589) (6,324)
Capital Trans. w/FSG (Suppl. disclosure) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,185 0 0 0 0 0
Other Transactions with Financial Svcs. 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 (1,400) (18) 9 - - -
Acquisitions (14) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (26) (13) - - -
Divestitures 44 2,407 144 561 1 0 0 0 56 1,079 3,156 1 - -
All Other (883) 538 873 2,011 (4,252) 3,602 (4,889) 0 811 1,045 2,539 (5,539) 0 0
Net Investing Flow ($2,302) $1,318 ($712) $767 ($5,612) $2,584 ($5,887) ($1,600) ($6,157) ($3,891) ($929) ($10,515) ($5,589) ($6,324)
Distributable Cash Flow ($6,234) ($427) ($6,794) ($3,642) ($7,877) $2,679 ($2,972) $726 ($10,386) $4,830 ($17,097) ($7,444) ($3,222) $1,805
Financing-Automotive
Change in Auto Sector Debt 60 (248) (96) (3) 10,361 (358) 699 (340) 11,910 (687) (287) 10,362 1,875 139
Equity Issuance/Option Exercise 63 81 519 93 0 1,651 619 0 431 250 756 2,270 0 0
Share Repurchase 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (183) (31) 0 0 0 0
All Other (77) (99) (30) (46) (35) (175) 17 0 (147) 61 (252) (193) 0 0
DIVIDENDS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (468) 0 0 0 0 0
Net Financing Flow $46 ($266) $393 $44 $10,326 $1,118 $1,335 ($340) $11,543 ($407) $217 $12,439 $1,875 $139
Currency Effects on Cash 235 35 (334) (245) (134) 224 156 0 104 506 (309) 246 0 0
Net Transactions with Financial Services (679) (557) (6) 402 (590) (266) (208) 123 1,321 (291) (840) (941) 465 571
NET CHANGE IN CASH POSITION ($6,632) ($1,215) ($6,741) ($3,441) $1,725 $3,755 ($1,689) $509 $2,582 $4,638 ($18,029) $4,300 ($883) $2,515

Cash and Cash Equivalents 15,363 14,148 7,407 4,077 7,802 11,257 9,276 9,785 16,022 20,678 4,077 9,785 8,902 11,417
Marketable Securities 13,348 12,446 11,477 9,296 13,483 9,703 14,572 14,572 16,566 12,359 9,296 14,572 14,572 14,572
ST VEBA 1,600 1,600 0 0 0
GROSS CASH $28,711 $26,594 $18,884 $13,373 $21,285 $20,960 $23,848 $24,357 $34,188 $34,637 $13,373 $24,357 $23,474 $25,989
VEBA Delta (Source)/Use ($1,600) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $200 $0 ($1,600) $0 $0 $0
NET CASH/(DEBT) POSITION (X-Veba) $4,958 $2,934 ($4,054) ($10,173) ($10,547) ($4,539) ($2,141) ($18,210) $1,933 $6,340 ($10,173) ($18,210) ($20,968) ($18,592)

FCF Before P/OPEB Contrib'ns & Divs ($2,994) ($3,564) ($7,460) ($5,446) ($3,854) ($827) $2,072 $1,211 ($731) ($415) ($22,163) ($1,397) ($1,288) $3,376

13
Ops.-CF (Ford's new def'n, ex FMCC Div) ($4,594) ($3,564) ($7,460) ($5,446) ($3,854) ($827) $2,072 $1,211 ($2,955) ($2,078) ($23,628) ($2,847) ($2,758) $2,376
FCF Ex-VEBA Delta (Ford's Old Def'n) ($7,660) ($3,930) ($7,826) ($5,812) ($4,216) ($1,189) $1,709 $849 ($1,570) ($2,078) ($25,228) ($2,847) ($2,758) $2,376
Free Cash Flow Before Divs ($6,060) ($3,930) ($7,826) ($5,812) ($4,216) ($1,189) $1,709 $849 ($1,770) ($2,078) ($23,628) ($2,847) ($2,758) $2,376
Free Cash Flow ($6,060) ($3,930) ($7,826) ($5,812) ($4,216) ($1,189) $1,709 $849 ($2,238) ($2,078) ($23,628) ($2,847) ($2,758) $2,376
CASH FLOW STATISTICS
CapEx as a % of Sales (4.8%) (3.8%) (5.2%) (5.2%) (4.8%) (4.8%)
Depreciation (% of prior year PPE) 17.6% 18.1% 16.5% 15.1% 17.5% 17.0%
Reinvestment Ratio (CapEx/D&A)
Automotive EBITDA (X-Items) 2,462 1,596 (833) (865) (449) (20) 1,578 2,378 1,727 6,648 2,360 3,487 7,618 11,839
Comprehensive EBITDA (incl p/t fin/serv) 2,529 1,262 (674) (1,249) (511) 575 2,239 2,729 3,981 7,870 1,868 5,032 8,945 13,470
Automotive EBIT 952 47 (2,187) (2,405) (1,530) (982) 576 1,153 (5,373) (278) (3,593) (783) 3,242 7,382
Total NI + Automotive D&A 2,018 173 (1,623) (1,733) (711) 324 1,875 2,426 4,257 6,563 (1,165) 3,914 6,605 10,321
NOPAT #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! (1,032) 2,108 0 0 0 0
Per-share
FCF Before Divs ($2.08) ($1.33) ($2.61) ($1.87) ($1.35) ($0.35) $0.48 $0.22 ($0.95) ($1.05) ($7.90) ($0.81) ($0.68) $0.59
FCF ($2.08) ($1.33) ($2.61) ($1.87) ($1.35) ($0.35) $0.48 $0.22 ($1.20) ($1.05) ($7.90) ($0.81) ($0.68) $0.59
Source: Company filings; Barclays Capital estimates. E = Estimate. (a) Except where noted and per-share data. EBITDA Earnings b4 interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization. NOPAT Net Operating Profit After Tax.
Equity Research
 Ford Motor Company -- Balance Sheet
2008 2009
($ mil) Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DecE 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents $18,663 $16,948 $10,607 $6,377 $8,102 $11,857 $10,176 $9,785 $16,020 $20,678 6,377 $9,785 $8,902 $11,417
Marketable Securities 13,348 12,446 11,477 9,296 13,483 9,703 14,572 14,572 16,566 12,359 9,296 14,572 14,572 14,572
Receivables 4,164 5,116 4,623 3,464 2,694 3,825 3,747 3,993 3,878 4,530 3,464 3,993 3,828 4,195
Inventories 11,721 12,987 12,048 8,618 6,575 6,603 6,560 6,935 11,578 10,121 8,618 6,935 8,715 10,488
Deferred Income Tax-Current Portion 562 542 333 302 306 439 428 222 1,569 532 302 222 1,517 1,651
Other current assets/Short-term VEBA 6,206 7,035 4,756 4,032 2,099 2,843 2,796 2,796 7,714 5,514 4,032 2,796 2,796 2,796
Receivable from Fin. Services 225 895 1,177 2,035 2,871 2,130 2,588 0 0 509 2,035 0 0 0
Current Assets $54,889 $55,969 $45,021 $34,124 $36,130 $37,400 $40,867 $38,303 $57,325 $54,243 $34,124 $38,303 $40,329 $45,118
Equity in Affiliates 2,558 2,558 2,466 1,069 1,376 1,380 1,412 1,442 2,029 2,283 1,069 1,442 1,592 1,767
Net PP&E 36,757 31,909 30,027 28,352 23,590 24,603 24,627 25,002 38,236 35,979 28,352 25,002 26,216 28,083

Analyst Certification:
Deferred Income Tax 8,557 7,676 6,992 7,204 6,410 6,441 5,733 5,733 14,880 9,268 7,204 5,733 5,733 5,733
Goodwill & Other Intangibles 2,054 2,034 1,796 1,584 219 226 216 216 6,920 2,051 1,584 216 216 216
Other Assets 16,023 8,193 8,346 1,512 8,727 9,202 9,656 9,656 3,244 14,665 1,512 9,656 9,656 9,656
Total Financial Services Assets 168,031 162,111 151,901 149,132 130,818 125,076 123,385 123,262 167,583 167,238 149,132 123,262 122,798 122,227
Total Assets 288,869 270,450 246,549 222,977 207,270 204,328 205,896 203,615 290,217 285,727 222,977 203,615 206,540 212,800
Liabilities
Trade Payables 17,692 18,137 15,154 10,635 9,614 10,615 11,622 13,038 17,069 15,718 10,635 13,038 12,800 13,376
Other liabilities 4,248 4,013 3,152 2,167 1,965 2,013 2,367 2,070 4,893 3,237 2,167 2,070 2,911 3,328
Accrued Liabilities 26,533 28,471 25,036 32,395 26,561 28,146 27,638 27,638 28,995 27,672 32,395 27,638 27,638 27,638
Income Taxes Payable 2,567 2,748 2,728 2,790 2,856 2,797 2,894 2,894 3,139 2,671 2,790 2,894 2,894 2,894
Short Term Debt 1,445 1,432 1,282 1,191 1,428 1,792 1,635 1,635 2,139 920 1,191 1,635 1,635 1,635
Current Liabilities $52,485 $54,801 $47,352 $49,178 $42,424 $45,363 $46,156 $47,275 $56,235 $50,218 $49,178 $47,275 $47,878 $48,871
Long Term Debt 25,608 25,028 24,856 24,655 30,704 24,307 25,254 40,931 28,514 25,777 24,655 40,931 42,806 42,945
Other Liabilities (Incl. Pension/OPEB) 45,778 38,803 32,622 24,815 27,376 27,409 27,385 16,812 49,398 46,757 24,815 16,812 5,555 5,021
Deferred Income Taxes/Misc. Other 846 967 736 614 384 521 495 495 441 783 614 495 495 495
Payable to Fin. Services 0 0 (340) 0 0 0 0 123 827 0 0 123 587 1,158
Minority Interest 1,466 1,459 1,458 1,195 1,100 1,325 1,405 1,405 1,159 1,421 1,195 1,405 1,405 1,405
Total Financial Services Liabilities 155,575 151,075 141,514 139,831 122,859 116,146 113,876 113,876 157,108 155,143 139,831 113,876 113,876 113,876
Preferred Stock (Now called Sub. Debt) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Financial Services Equity 12,456 11,036 10,387 9,301 7,959 8,930 9,509 9,386 9,527 12,095 9,301 9,386 8,922 8,351
Automotive Equity (5,345) (12,719) (12,376) (26,612) (25,536) (19,673) (18,184) (26,689) 802 (6,467) (26,612) (26,689) (14,984) (9,323)
Total Shareholders' Equity 7,111 (1,683) (1,989) (17,311) (17,577) (10,743) (8,675) (17,302) (3,465) 5,628 (17,311) (17,302) (6,062) (972)
Total Liabilities & S.E. 288,869 270,450 246,209 222,977 207,270 204,328 205,896 203,615 290,217 285,727 222,977 203,615 206,540 212,800
Shares Outstanding(Mil) 2,188 2,237 2,279 2,384 2,397 3,001 3,259 3,304 1,872 1,978 2,272 2,990 3,419 3,419

Balance Sheet Strength

Total Automotive Cash (ex-VEBA) 32,011 29,394 22,084 15,673 21,585 21,560 24,748 24,357 32,586 33,037 15,673 24,357 23,474 25,989
Short + Long Term Automotive Debt 27,053 26,460 26,138 25,846 32,132 26,099 26,889 42,566 30,653 26,697 25,846 42,566 44,441 44,580
Net Automotive Debt/(Cash) (4,958) (2,934) 4,054 10,173 10,547 4,539 2,141 18,210 (1,933) (6,340) 10,173 18,210 20,968 18,592
Convertible Preferred Securities 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
A/tax Unf'd Pension/OPEB (Net of veba) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 28,970 23,636 0 0 0 0

14
Total Capitalization (Basic) 2,153 (4,617) 2,065 (7,138) (7,030) (6,204) (6,534) 907 (5,398) (712) (7,138) 907 14,905 17,620
Total Cap'n + Sec/Rec's + P/OPEB -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 23,572 22,924 (7,138) 907 14,905 17,620
Gross Debt to Debt/Equity/Pref. 79% 107% 108% 303% 221% 170% 148% 168% 113% 83% 303% 168% 116% 102%
Debt+Conv/Pref to Debt/Equity/Pref 94% 127% 129% 361% 255% 203% 175% 188% 131% 98% 361% 188% 129% 114%
Book Value Per Share $3.25 ($0.75) ($0.87) ($7.26) ($7.33) ($3.58) ($2.66) ($5.24) ($1.85) $2.85 ($7.62) ($5.79) ($1.77) ($0.28)
Goodwill Per Share 3.70 1.04 0.70 0.07 0.06 0.06
Auto Debt to Auto EBITDA (x-items) 3.8 4.1 6.3 11.2 (50.0) (12.6) 112.4 8.8 14.1 4.3 11.1 9.8 5.7 3.8
Return Measures
Return on Avg. Equity (Incl. Charges) (206.1%) (268.7%) (397.1%) 431.7% 149.7% 88.0% 42.9% 2.5% (273.1%) (387.1%) 121.9% 2.1% (19.1%) (160.6%)
Return on Avg. Equity (Excl. Charges) 18.9% (64.1%) (208.8%) 431.7% 149.7% 88.0% 42.9% 2.5% (59.9%) (33.6%) 121.9% 2.1% (19.1%) (166.7%)
Dividend Payout Ratio (x-items) na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
Balance Sheet Productivity
Average Inventory Turnover 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.7 11.6 12.6 11.8 11.6 12.7 11.6
Inventory days 35.9 39.4 41.9 32.3 30.6 27.7 24.8 25.0 33.4 27.0 28.6 28.0 32.0 34.5
Days Sales Outstanding (Receivables) 10.8 13.6 15.2 12.5 11.5 14.5 12.2 12.0 9.9 10.6 10.3 14.1 12.0 11.5

indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Trade Payables Days 54.1 55.0 52.7 39.9 44.8 44.6 44.0 47.0 49 42 35 52.6 47.0 44.0
Trade Payables to Inventory 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.6
Average Asset Turnover 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Working Capital X-Cash/Debt ($ in mm) (28,162) (26,794) (23,133) (29,536) (26,451) (27,731) (28,402) (31,693) (29,357) (28,092) (29,536) (31,693) (29,387) (28,107)
Avg. Working Capital/Sales (18.7%) (19.2%) (19.5%) (22.2%) (24.7%) (27.2%) (27.5%) (27.8%) (19.9%) (18.4%) (23.6%) (29.6%) (26.2%) (21.6%)
Capital Spending/Sales 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 5.4% 6.0% 6.0% 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 3.8% 5.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Sources: Company reports and Barclays Capital. a Except where noted and per-share data. E Barclays Capital estimate.

of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or
I, Brian A. Johnson, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all
Equity Research
 Equity Research

Company Description:
Third-largest global vehicle producer. Its automotive brands include Ford, Lincoln, Mazda, Mercury, and Volvo. Its automotive-related
services include Ford Credit.

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 Equity Research

On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investment
management businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to this date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.

Important Disclosures:
Ford Motor (F) US$ 11.66 (07-Jan-2010) 2-Equal Weight / 2-Neutral
Rating and Price Target Chart:
FORD MOTOR CO.
As of 04-Jan-2010
Currency = USD
12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00
2-07 5-07 8-07 11-07 2-08 5-08 8-08 11-08 2-09 5-09 8-09 11-09
Closing Price Price Target
Recommendation Change Drop Coverage
Source: FactSet

Currency=US$
Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target
24-Nov-09 8.81 9.00 02-Feb-09 1.88 1.00
20-Oct-09 7.71 8.00 02-Feb-09 1.88 3 -Underweight
20-Oct-09 7.71 2 -Equal weight 26-Nov-08 2.15 4.00
01-Oct-09 6.97 7.00 23-May-08 6.87 6.00
22-Jul-09 6.38 4.50 25-Apr-08 7.50 6.50
12-May-09 5.01 2.00 03-Dec-07 7.25 6.00
FOR EXPLANATIONS OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of Ford Motor in
the previous 12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Ford Motor in the past 12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Ford Motor.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Ford Motor within the past 12
months.
Ford Motor is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Ford Motor is or during the last 12 months has been a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
Valuation Methodology: We are valuing Ford using a 4.0x multiple of our 2011 EBITDA estimate of $11.8 bil, a $11.6 bil value for Ford's
stake in Ford Credit and $18.0 bil of excess cash. Assuming all VEBA obligations are paid in cash, liabilities would total $38.5 bil, leaving
$38.4 bil of equity value, or $11 per share.
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Factors that could affect our investment opinion, price target, and
earnings estimates ("outlook") include, but are not limited to, changes to unionized labor agreements and the risk of work stoppages; the
performance of pension assets; the potential for credit downgrades (credit ratings play a major role in the automakers' ability to help their
customers finance the purchase of new vehicles); the risk of substantial increases in North American production capacity by foreign

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 Equity Research
automakers; and the consequential risk to market share. Risks specific to our Ford outlook include the following: (1) restructuring benefits
could come sooner, and be more pronounced, than expected; (2) new products could help the company stem its market share decline or
improve mix, thus making a more sizeable contribution to profits.

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 Equity Research
Important Disclosures Continued:
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Company Name Ticker Price Price Date Stock / Sector Rating

Ford Motor F US$ 11.66 07-Jan-2010 2-Equal Weight / 2-Neutral

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Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR) BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)
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Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Capital Equity Research has 1419 companies under coverage.
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of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

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 Equity Research
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