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Best Practices in Dam

and Levee Safety Risk


Analysis

Dallas Floodway - USACE

U.S. Department of the Interior


Bureau of Reclamation

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers


BUILDING STRONG® Version 4.1

July 2019
Version x.x - 29 May 2012
Best Practices in Dam
and Levee Safety Risk
Analysis

A joint publication by:

U.S. Department of the Interior


Bureau of Reclamation

and

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

This manual was developed for internal use. The agencies make no guarantees as to the
accuracy or applicability of the information presented herein.
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
1D one-dimensional
2D two-dimensional
3D three-dimensional

AALL average annual life loss


ACR alkali carbonate reaction
AEP annual exceedance probability
AF acre-feet
AFP annualized failure probability
ALL annualized life loss
ANCOLD Australian National Committee on Large Dams
ANS American Nuclear Society
ANSI American National Standards Institute
APF annual probability of failure
ARS Agricultural Research Service (USDA)
ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers
ASDSO Association of State Dam Safety Officials
ASR alkali silica reaction

BEP backward erosion piping


BLM Bureau of Land Management
BPT Becker-Hammer penetration test

CAD computer aided design


CAS Corrective Action Study
CCTV closed-circuit television
C-D capacity minus demand
CD consolidated-drained (tests)
CDA Canadian Dam Association
CDF cumulative distribution function
CDOT Colorado Department of Transportation
CE continuing erosion
CEUS-NGA Central and Eastern United States Next Generation Attenuation
CEUS-SSC Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source
Characterization
CFM Comprehensive Fracture Model

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July 2019
CIRIA Construction Industry Research and Information Association
CMS conditional mean spectra
CPT cone penetrometer tests
CR Comprehensive Review
CSR cyclic stress ratio
CSSM critical state soil mechanics
CSZ Cascadia Subduction Zone

D.C. District of Columbia


DAMRAE Dam Risk Analysis Engine
DC direct current
DDA discontinuous deformation analysis (code)
DEM digital elevation models
Df diameter at failure
DHR differential head ratio
DSAC Dam Safety Action Classification
DSAT Dam Safety Advisory Team
DSHA Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
DSMS Dam Safety Modification Study
DSO Dam Safety Office (Reclamation)
DSPR Dam Safety Priority Rating

EE excessive erosion
EFA Erosion Function Apparatus
El. elevation
EM Engineering Manual
EPRI Electric Power Research Institute
EROS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science
ESP exchangeable sodium percentage
ETL Engineering Technical Letter

F force
FB ForeBay
FC fines content
FCM fracture critical members
Fd drain factor
FE finite element
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency

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FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
FLAC Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua
FOSM First Order Second Moment
FS factor of safety
FSSS fully softened shear strength
FTA fault tree analysis

GIS Geographic Information Systems


GMPE Ground Motion Prediction Equations
gpm gallons per minute

HEC Hydrologic Engineering Center (USACE)


HET hole erosion test
HHA hydrologic hazard analysis
HHC hydrologic hazard curve
HL Hydraulic Laboratory
HMR Hydrometeorological Report
HSE Health and Safety Executive

ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams


IDF Inflow Design Flood
IE Issue Evaluation
IES Issue Evaluation Study
IFSAR Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar
IPET Interagency Performance and Evaluation Team
IR interaction ratio
JET Jet Erosion Test

lb/ft2 pounds per square foot


LiDAR light detection and ranging
LSAC Levee Safety Action Classification
LST Levee Screening Tool (USACE)

M moment
MC Monte Carlo
MCE Maximum Credible Earthquake
MPBX Multi-Point Borehole Extensometers

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NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NE no erosion
NED National Elevation Dataset
NEHRP National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
NFIP National Flood Insurance Program
NLD National Levee Database
NMSZ New Madrid Seismic Zone
NRC National Research Council
NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service
NSW DSC New South Wales Dam Safety Committee
NWS National Weather Service

OCR over-consolidation ratio


OMB Office of Management and Budget

PA Periodic Assessment
PAR population at risk
PDF probability density function
PERT program or project evaluation and review technique
PFDHA Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis
PFM potential failure mode
PFMA potential failure mode analysis
PG&E Pacific Gas & Electric Company
PGA peak ground acceleration
PGD permanent ground deformation
PHA peak horizontal acceleration
PI plasticity index
P.L. Public Law
PMF Probable Maximum Flood
PMP probable maximum precipitation
POR pool of record
PSHA Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

RAS River Analysis System


RCC roller-compacted concrete
RCEM Reclamation Consequences Estimating Methodology
RCT rotating cylinder test
RD relative density

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Reclamation Bureau of Reclamation
RM river mile
RMC Risk Management Center (USACE)
RMR rock mass rating
RQD rock quality designation
RWS reservoir water surface

SA spectral acceleration
SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition
SEFM Stochastic Event Flood Model
SI statistically independent
S-O Second-Order
SOP standard operating procedure
SPF standard project flood
SPT standard penetration test
SQRA Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment
SSHAC Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee
SWV Shear Wave Velocity Tests

TIN Triangular Irregular Network


TR Technical Report
TU Delft Delft University of Technology (Netherlands)
TVA Tennessee Valley Authority

U.S. United States


UAS Unmanned Aerial Systems
UCERF3 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3
(USGS)
UCS unconfined compressive strength
UDEC Universal Distinct Element Code
UHRS Uniform Hazard Response spectra
UHS uniform hazard spectra
USA United States of America
USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers
USCS Unified Soil Classification System
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
USGS United States Geological Survey
USNRC U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

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USSD United States Society on Dams
UU unconsolidated-undrained (tests)

V/H vertical/horizontal
Var variance
VST vane shear test

WUS Western United States

Symbols
° degree
% percent

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface

Part I – Risk Analysis Basics


Chapter A-1 Probability and Statistics
Chapter A-2 Geologic Information Required for Dam and Levee Risk
Analysis
Chapter A-3 Potential Failure Mode Analysis
Chapter A-4 Semi-Quantitative Risk Analysis
Chapter A-5 Event Trees
Chapter A-6 Subjective Probability and Expert Elicitation
Chapter A-7 Probabilistic Approaches to Limit-State Analyses
Chapter A-8 Combining and Portraying Risks
Chapter A-9 Governance and Guidelines
Chapter A-10 Building the Case
Chapter A-11 Facilitation

Part II – Loading
Chapter B-1 Hydrologic Hazard Analysis
Chapter B-2 Seismic Hazard Analysis

Part III – Consequences


Chapter C-1 Consequences of Dam or Levee Failure

Part IV – Embankments and Foundations


Chapter D-1 Erosion of Rock and Soil
Chapter D-2 Spillway Erosion
Chapter D-3 Flood Overtopping Failure of Dams and Levees
Chapter D-4 Riverine Erosion
Chapter D-5 Embankment Slope Instability
Chapter D-6 Internal Erosion Risks for Embankments and Foundations
Chapter D-7 Foundation Risks for Concrete Dams
Chapter D-8 Seismic Risks for Embankments

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Part V – Concrete Structures
Chapter E-1 Concrete Property Considerations
Chapter E-2 Reinforced Concrete Failure Mechanisms
Chapter E-3 Risk Analysis for Concrete Gravity Structures
Chapter E-4 Risk Analysis for Concrete Arch Dams
Chapter E-5 Risk Analysis for Concrete Buttress Dams
Chapter E-6 Seismic Pier Failure
Chapter E-7 Seismic Evaluation of Retaining Walls
Chapter E-8 Levee Floodwalls

Part VI – Hydraulic Failure Modes


Chapter F-1 Hydraulic Failure of Spillway Chutes
Chapter F-2 Overtopping of Walls and Stilling Basin Failure
Chapter F-3 Cavitation Damage Induced Failure of Spillways

Part V – Gate Risks


Chapter G-1 Failure of Radial (Tainter) Gates Under Normal Operational
Conditions
Chapter G-2 Failure of Gates Other Than Radial Gate
Chapter G-3 Seismic Failure of Spillway Radial (Tainter) Gates
Chapter G-4 Probability of Failure of Mechanical or Electrical Systems on
Dam Gates

Part VI – Other Risks


Chapter H-1 Operational Risks
Chapter H-2 Landslide Risks
Chapter H-3 Construction Risks
Chapter H-4 River Systems
Chapter H-5 Levee Closure Systems

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July 2019

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