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Interpreting DNA Evidence: Statistical Genetics for Forensic Scientists

Article  in  Heredity · January 2000

DOI: 10.1038/sj.hdy.6885562 · Source: OAI

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Heredity 82 (1999) 585±587

Book reviews

Molecular Approaches to Ecology and Evolution. R. DeSalle have `microsatellites' instead of `SSRs' and `STRs', and let
and B. Schierwater (eds). BirkhaÈuser Verlag AG, Basel. 1998. `ASAP' stand for `as soon as possible' rather than `arbitrary
Pp. 364. Price DM 88.00, paperback. ISBN 3 7643 5725 8. signatures from ampli®cation pro®les'!
It should be noted that this book has a more substantial
This collection of 17 wide-ranging articles shows the remark- 1994 predecessor [Molecular Ecology and Evolution: Approach-
able applicability of molecular approaches to many aspects of es and Applications (B. Schierwater et al., eds) pp 622]. All but
ecology and evolution. The articles are all in the format of two of the articles in the new book are by authors who wrote
reviews and grouped into three sections: part 1 on population articles in the previous one. Most of the authors have
biology, kinship and ®ngerprinting, part 2 on species and part produced a radical revision of their previous work or a
3 on higher taxa and systematics. Within part 1, the advan- completely new piece, but ®ve of the articles in the new book
tages and pitfalls of microsatellite analysis are well-covered are very similar (albeit updated) versions of articles in the old
with two reviews (SchloÈtterer and Pemberton; Rosenbaum and one. So, if you have the old volume, think twice before buying
Deinard) while Caetano-AnolleÂs describes an extraordinary this book. If you don't have the old volume, I would
array of approaches to reveal alternative polymorphic markers recommend DeSalle and Schierwater's book as an enjoyable
using arbitrary oligonucleotide primers (RAPDs and the sons sampler of the ®eld of molecular ecology and evolution.
and daughters of RAPDs). From a more conceptual angle, the
three remaining articles in part 1 describe how a variety of JEREMY B. SEARLE
di€erent molecular techniques have helped in studies of Department of Biology
kinship and reproductive success in insects and birds (Webster University of York
and Westneat; Siva-Jothy and Hadrys; Scott and Williams). PO Box 373
Part 2 opens with two articles on the use of molecular data York YO10 5YW
to distinguish between di€erent speciation models (Templeton; U.K.
Wakeley and Hey), and then Amato et al. and Vogler show
how molecular markers can aid in decision-making in conser- Interpreting DNA Evidence: Statistical Genetics for Forensic
vation biology. The model bacterial species comparison Scientists. Ian W. Evett and Bruce S. Weir. Sinaur Associates
between Eschericia coli and Salmonella enterica (serovar Inc, Sunderland, Massachusetts. 1998. Pp. 278. Price £25.95,
Typhimurium) is discussed in molecular terms by Ochman paperback. ISBN 0 87893 155 4.
and Groisman, while Routman and Cheverud emphasize the
value of quantitative trait loci in speciation studies. Part 3 has This book sets out to provide the statistical and genetical
three articles relating to molecular data analysis (Wheeler; knowledge that forensic scientists require to report and testify
Golstein and Specht; Larson) the last of which considers the about DNA pro®ling evidence. In doing so it tells a story of
vexed question of how to combine molecular and morpholog- much broader interest. DNA evidence can be both very strong
ical data sets. Of the ®nal two chapters, I particularly enjoyed and quanti®able, yet these apparently useful properties have
that by Cunningham and Collins who review what is known exposed and challenged the way in which scienti®c evidence is
about the faunal interchanges between the Paci®c and the presented and decisions are made in court. How can a court
Atlantic, and the value of molecular markers in analysing weigh the impressive odds given to explain the strength of the
these. In contrast, the developmental genetics considered by DNA evidence with the more conventional evidence?
Jacobs et al. stands out rather uncomfortably as covering Evett and Weir illustrate the issue using the case of R vs.
distinctly di€erent material from the rest of the book. G. Adams. In outline, the case involved a rape by a stranger.
The articles are well-written and well-referenced (up-to-date A suspect was identi®ed by a DNA pro®le match with a
until 1997) and I found that reading the book from cover to sample obtained in connection with another incident. This
cover gave an interesting perspective of the ®eld. The book is suspect, Adams, had an alibi for the night of the attack. He
not intended to be comprehensive (there are some huge gaps, was not picked out in an identity parade by the victim, indeed
e.g. molecular clocks, comparative genomics, ancient DNA) she said at a later hearing that he did not look like her attacker
and cannot be used as a core text for teaching molecular and that he was appreciably older. The presentation of the
ecology and evolution, but will be genuinely useful for evidence was understandably problematic involving retrial
supplementary reading. The editing is light which leads to and appeals. How could the jury compare the unquanti®ed
some repetition among articles and some inconsistency in the evidence suggesting innocence with the odds calculated from
use of acronyms. While on the subject of acronyms, this book the DNA evidence suggesting guilt? At retrial prosecution and
really illustrates the extent to which this ®eld is swamped with defense experts cooperated in a remarkable innovation. They
them. Whatever Rosenbaum and Deinard's concerns, let us guided the jury in the calculations needed to express the

Ó 1999 The Genetical Society of Great Britain. 585

586 BOOK REVIEWS

identi®cation and other non-DNA evidence in numerical form, wordings about the same evidence which are correct. They
thereby allowing direct comparison with the DNA evidence. report that a judge has con®ded that, if the di€erences between
Adams was again convicted, but at the subsequent (unsuc- the correct and incorrect sentences is so subtle, then perhaps
cessful) appeal the judges recommended that juries should not the fallacy doesn't matter. Alternatively it may be that there
normally be induced into numerical reasoning. This leaves the are as many problems with courts trying to apply common-
problem of how to present the DNA evidence to the court so sense to reasoning about forensic data as there are with
that it can be evaluated appropriately by common-sense. introducing numerical reasoning about the other evidence.
The books leads up to these dicult and incompletely
resolved problems. It starts by laying the necessary founda- RICHARD A. NICHOLS
tions in probability and population genetics. The authors take School of Biological Sciences
the view that forensic scientists are `often uncomfortable with Queen Mary and West®eld College
statistics' and so start from fundamentals such as the meaning University of London
of randomness and probability. This allows them to introduce London E1 4NS
Bayesian analysis to forensic inference. This will be a big jump U.K.
for their target audience. Most of them will have been trained
to assess data in the classical statistical mode, to evaluate the
probability of the evidence under the assumption of some null The Human Genome: A User's Guide. R. Scott Hawley and
hypothesis; in this case the null hypothesis might be that the Catherine A. Mori. Academic Press, San Diego. 1998. Pp. 415.
suspect did not leave the crime stain. They advocate assessing, Price $49.95, paperback. ISBN 0 12 333460 8.
instead, the e€ect of the genetic data on the relative probability
of the hypotheses of interest to the court; perhaps the The aim of this book is to inform members of the public about
hypothesis that the suspect left the stain compared to the the implications of human genome research. In addition to
hypothesis that some other person did. giving an accurate explanation of the working of the human
The ®rst two chapters of the book appear to have been very genome, it explores the personal issues arising from the
thoughtfully constructed; they provide the necessary tools and implementation of genetic technology. Topics covered include
background to make the dicult conceptual jump between the the basic mechanisms of heredity, gene structure and function,
classical and Bayesian mode of reasoning. They use examples Mendelian inheritance, mutations, sex determination, failure
from forensic science at an early stage, avoid distracting issues of meiotic mechanisms, human genes and molecular biology
and write clearly. The middle of the book necessarily becomes techniques and genetic±environmental interactions.
more densely written in order to cover the range of problems The text is made more interesting with both scienti®c snippets
that occur in practical casework and will perhaps be more and personal anecdotes. Examples of these are the tales of two
useful as an expert training text. men with Klinefelter syndrome and the evidence for one gene
The ®nal chapter will again be of wider interest and is encoding one protein. The book is not afraid to tackle contro-
particularly stimulating. The importance of introducing the versial subjects, like the inheritance of aggression, and also covers
Bayesian approach is illustrated by the problem of a suspect a wide variety of topics that members of the public may encounter
identi®ed by a search through a database. At ®rst sight it seems for themselves. For example, testing for Down's syndrome, or
reasonable that the evidence against a suspect is weaker if he is realizing that you yourself are at risk of breast cancer following
identi®ed in this way; after all forensic databases can be quite diagnosis of this disease in your mother and sister. On the
large (the UK database may eventually contain over a million downside, the book jumps around rather too much, and the
people). Even if match probabilities are several million to one, examples given are often unusual cases of genetic conditions Ð
the chances of one innocent person matching in a large perhaps that is part of its appeal.
database may be non-negligible. For this reason a US National A passing urologist, Leslie Mo€at, saw the book lying on
Research Council recommended that a diminished strength of my desk and asked to borrow it. I explained that I had it for
evidence should be represented by multiplying the match review Ð he o€ered to take a look. For the next month I
probability by the database size. The arguments of Balding received regular calls, `please can I keep the book a bit longer?'
and Donnelly show this to be logically ¯awed: imagine the These are his comments. `This is a refreshing text which puts
database being extended to cover almost every likely suspect in modern genetic techniques into a readable form making them
the country, surely as the database gets bigger the single intelligible even for a surgeon. The descriptions of genetics do
matching person is more likely to be the true culprit, not less! not assume a high entry level, and yet move at a measured pace
The book outlines how the Bayesian approach resolves this into complex issues. The whole ®eld of genetic research is
paradox in a straightforward manner. pursued in sucient detail for a nonspecialist, and then
What the Bayesian approach cannot resolve is the tricky signposts the path to further knowledge. The descriptions of
issue of ensuring that the court reasons sensibly with the laboratory tests are particularly lucid and Section V deals with
information provided to it by the experts about DNA pro®les. the interactions of genes and the environment in a suciently
They provide examples of expert testimony to courts which are e€ective manner for a general publication. An epilogue on
logically incorrect (which may be regarded as grounds for eugenics rounds o€ a mature assessment of the role of
appeal). On the other hand they present super®cially similar scientists in ethical issues. Further reading is suggested and

Ó The Genetical Society of Great Britain, Heredity, 82, 585±587.

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