Subject Code Math 2 Intermediate Algebra

Module Code 10.0 Introduction to Mathematical Modeling

Lesson Code 10.1.1 Building Linear Models from Data
Time Frame 30 Minutes

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, you might have encountered predictions and forecast on
the number of infected people. One example is the prediction of Prof. Gabriel Leung, Hong Kong’s leading
public health epidemiologist. Last February 2020, he stated that the 60% of the world population might get
infected if the virus is left unchecked. (Nash, 2020)
A study by Jamdade and Jamdade (2021) also found out that there will be 632,863 COVID-19 cases
on October 13, 2020 in the Philippines. The prediction is estimated from real-world data which is the
number of reported infected cases documented in the Philippines from December 31, 2019, to September 13,
2020. Due to the rapid spread of the virus, many efforts in forecasting have been made. These predictions
greatly help policy makers in managing the pandemic. (Jamdade & Jamdade, 2021)
These numbers are not just wild guesses. These are based on real-life data. From these data, experts
can model the dynamics of a phenomena such as disease transmission, population growth etc,
Real-life data can be modeled by many types of equations. These include linear, quadratic, radical,
rational, and higher-order polynomial equations. Inequalities can also be used to model and solve real-life
problems. (Larson, 2011, p. 75).
In this section, mathematical modeling using linear functions will be introduced.

In this learning guide, linear functions will be used to solve problems that occur in real-life
situations. We will use these models in analyzing relationships and making predictions based on those
relationships.

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We recall first the definition of a linear function.

LINEAR FUNCTION

Let � and � be any real numbers with � ≠ 0. The function given by

� � = �� + �
is called a linear function. Its domain and range are the set of all real numbers. (Sullivan, 2012)

If we let � � = �, we have � = �� + �, which is a linear equation in two variables. We also recall

the other forms of a linear equation in two variables (LETV) summarized below.
Let �, � and � be the slope, the � -intercept and � -intercept, respectively. Also, let (�1 , �1 ) and
�2 , �2 be two distinct arbitrary points on the line. We have the following forms of a LETV.

1. Standard Form �� + �� = �
2. General Form �� + �� + � = 0
3. Slope-Intercept Form � = �� + �
4. Point-Slope Form � − �1 = �(� − �1 )
5. Two-Point Form �2 − �1
� − �1 = (� − �1 )
�2 − �1
6. Intercept form � �
+ =1
� �

These forms are important when we derive the linear functions for given real-life data.

Example 1. The table below is the Philippines’ total population for three census period. One period is
equivalent to one year. Predict the total population in 2020 and 2025 using a linear model.

Year Total Population (in millions)

2000 76
2010 92
2015 100
SOURCE: openstat.psa.gov.ph

Solution:
To simplify the formulation of the model, we assume year 2000 as year 0. Thus, 2010 and 2015 are years 10
and 15, respectively. We have the revised table below based on the discussed assumption.

Number of years from 2000 Total Population (in millions)

0 76
10 92
15 100

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The next step is to graph the data points to visualize the given information.
Total Population (in millions)

Number of years since 2000

The next step is to determine the function that will represent the given data points. We can do this
by observing the pattern created by the given data points plotted on the graph. In this case, we can draw a
line that passes through all the three points. This means that we can create a linear function which we can
use to predict the total population in the years to come.
To determine the linear function, we can use the Two-Point Form of a linear equation in two
variables. Since we are given three points, namely (0, 76), (10, 92), and (15, 100), we let the two points
(0, 76) and (10, 92) as (�1 , �1 ) and (�2 , �2 ), respectively. The linear function will be derived as follows:

�2 − �1 Two-Point Form
� − �1 = (� − �1 )
� 2 − �1
92 − 76 Substitute the (�1 , �1 ) and (�2 , �2 )
� − 76 = (� − 0)
10 − 0
16 Simplify the fraction
� − 76 = �
10

� = 1.6� + 76 Add 76 to both sides of the equation

� � = 1.6� + 76 Express it as a function

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 We can verify that the line passes through (15, 100) by substituting it to the derived function,

?
� 15 =100
?
1.6 15 + 76=100
√
24 + 76=100 TRUE

From the actual data on the total population of the Philippines, we derived the linear function
� � = 1.6� + 76,
where � is the number of years since 2000. This linear function is our linear model for the given data points.
From this model, we can predict the total population in year 2020 and 2030, assuming that the trend
continues.

To determine the population in 2020, substitute � = 20. For 2030, use � = 30. The computations
are shown below.
� 20 = 1.6 20 + 76 = 32 + 76 = 108
� 30 = 1.6 30 + 76 = 48 + 76 = 124

Based on the above computations, the predicted total population in 2020 and 2030 is 108 million
and 124 million, respectively. According to psa.gov.ph, the actual population in 2020 is 109.58 million,
which is close to our prediction.

From our linear model, we can also calculate the total population in 2005, with � = 5. That is,

� 5 = 1.6 5 + 76 = 8 + 76 = 84

According to psa.gov.ph, the actual population in 2005 is 86.33 million. The linear model computed 84
million which is close to the actual population.

Example 2. The table gives heavy-metal nuclear waste in thousand metric tons (TMT) from spent reactor
fuel stored temporarily at reactor sites, awaiting permanent storage. Formulate a linear model of the heavy-
metal nuclear waste produced. (Source: “Burial of Radioactive Nuclear Waste Under the Seabed,” Scientific
American, January 1998.) (Hornsby et.al., 2012, p. 221)

Year 1995 2000 2010 2020

Waste (in TMT) 32 42 61 76

Solution:
For easier plotting, we set year 1995 as the year zero (0). We have the revised table below.
Number of years from 1995 Waste (in TMT)
0 32
5 42
15 61
25 76

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The next step is to graph the given data points.

Waste (in TMT)

Number of years since 1995

The next step is to determine the function that will represent the given data points. Based on the
above graph, we cannot draw a line that passes through all the four points. However, we can create a linear
function which approximates the given data points.
To determine the linear function that will approximate the given data points, we can use the Two-
Point Form of a linear equation in two variables. In this case, we can use any pair of points to determine the
linear function.
We let the two points (0, 32) and (25, 76) as (�1 , �1 ) and (�2 , �2 ), respectively.

�2 − �1 Two-Point Form
� − �1 = (� − �1 )
�2 − �1
76 − 32 Substitute the assigned (�1 , �1 ) and (�2 , �2 )
� − 32 = (� − 0)
25 − 0
44 Simplify the fraction
� − 32 = �
25

� = 1.76� + 32 Add 32 to both sides of the equation

� � = 1.76� + 32 Express it as a function

The graph of the derived linear function is shown on the next page.

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 Waste (in TMT)

Number of years since 1995

The line � � = 1.76� + 32 only passes through the two points. However, we can see from the
graph that the line is relatively close to the two other points. We can verify this by substituting � = 5 and
� = 15 and compute the resulting value as shown below.

� 5 = 1.76 5 + 32 = 40.8
� 15 = 1.76 15 + 32 = 58.4

We can also approximate the data using a different pair of points. For example, if we choose (5, 42)
and (15, 61), the linear function will be � � = 1.9� + 32.5 and the graph is as follows.
Waste (in TMT)

Number of years since 1995

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 The linear function � � = 1.9� + 32.5 does not pass through all the four points, but the line is
relatively close to the two other points. We can substitute � = 0 and � = 25 to verify if what would be the
resulting value and it is computed as follows.

� 0 = 1.9 0 + 32.5 = 32.5

� 25 = 1.9 25 + 32 = 80

We can have several linear functions to approximate the given data set. We summarize them in the
table below. This only means that real-life data cannot be drawn with only one straight line. Real-life data
can be approximated with different linear functions. With these different linear functions, there is one linear
function that best approximates the given data points.

Pair of Points Linear Function

(0, 32) and (5, 42) �(�) = 2� + 32
(0, 32) and (15, 61) �(�) = 1.93� + 32
(0, 32) and (25, 76) � � = 1.76� + 32
(5, 42) and (15, 61) � � = 1.9� + 32.5
(5, 42) and (25, 76) �(�) = 1.7� + 33.5
(15, 61) and (25, 76) �(�) = 1.5� + 38.5

LINE OF BEST FIT

From the previous example, we were presented with several linear functions to approximate the
given data points. Can we determine a line that best fits the data?
The line of best fit means that the sum of the squares of the vertical distances from each point to the
line is at a minimum. This implies that the given points should be closer to this line of best fit. Since the
values of y is predicted from the values of x, the closer the point to the line, the better the fit will be.
To determine the line of best fit, we will use a useful tool such as Geogebra.

FINDING THE LINE OF BEST FIT IN GEOGEBRA

Step 1. Plot the points in Geogebra.

Step 2. In the input bar, type the command Fitpoly(<List of Points>, Degree). The list of points is the
set containing all the points. Set the degree as 1.

In example 2, we can easily determine the line of best fit using Goeogebra as shown on the next
page.

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 From the graph above, the line of best fit is shown and it is given by the function � � = 1.77� +
32.88. We can also verify whether the predicted value using the line of best fit is closer to the actual value.
The computations are shown below.

� 0 = 1.77� 0 + 32.88 = 32.88

� 5 = 1.77� 5 + 32.88 = 41.71
� 15 = 1.77� 15 + 32.88 = 59.37
� 25 = 1.77� 5 + 32.88 = 77.03

To summarize, we have the following table below. Indeed, the linear model closely approximates
the actual values.
Year Actual Waste (in TMT) Predicted Waste (in TMT)
1995 32 32.88
2000 42 41.71
2010 61 59.37
2020 76 77.03

Thus, the linear model that best describes the heavy-metal nuclear waste produced is
� � = 1.77� + 32.88.

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Example 3. A student conducted a research on the relationship between a child’s height and child’s head
circumference. She gathered the following data below.

Height (inches) Head Circumference (inches)

25.25 16.4
25.75 16.9
25.00 16.9
27.75 17.6
26.50 17.3
27.00 17.5
26.75 17.3
26.75 17.5
27.50 17.5

Using a linear model, predict the height of a child whose head circumference is 17.4 inches.

Solution:
Step 1: Graph the given data points.

Step 2: Determine the linear function. Based on the graph shown above, a single line cannot be drawn that
passes through all the points. With this, we will use Geogebra to determine the line of best fit.

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 Using Geogebra, the line of best fit has a graph shown above and is given by the function
� � = 0.373� + 7.327.

Step 3. Solve the problem. To determine the height of the child with a head circumference of 17.4 inches, we
have the following computations.

� � = 17.4 Equate �(�) to 17.4

0.373� + 7.327 = 17.4
0.373� = 10.073 Subtract 7.327 to both sides
10.073 Divide both sides with 0.373
�=
0.373
� = 27.005

Using the line of best fit, thus, a child with a head circumference of 17.4 inches is predited to be
27.005 inches tall.

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Alternate Model:

We can also create another linear model by interchanging the variables. The input is the head
circumference and the output is the height. Below is the resulting graph using Geogebra.

As shown on the graph above, there is no single line that can represent all the given data points.
With this, we will be using Geogebra’s line of best fit which is given to be � � = 2.15� − 10.527. The
graph of this linear function is shown below.

Using the derived line of best fit, we can predict the height of the child with a given head
circumference of 17.4 inches. That is,

� 17.4 = 2.15 17.4 − 10.527 = 26.878

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 In this derived linear model, the predicted height of the child is 26.878 inches.

There is a slight difference between the results of the predicted height for both linear models. To
further validate the results, it would be better to check if what model gives almost exactly the actual height
of a child based on actual data.

REFERENCES:

Albarico, J.M. (2013). THINK Framework. Based on Ramos, E.G. and N. Apolinario. (n.d.) Science LINKS.
Quezon City: Rex Bookstore Inc.

Hornsby, J., Lial, M., McGinnis, T. (2012). Beginning Algebra 11th ed. Quezon City: Rex Bookstore Inc.
Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.

Jamdade, P. G., & Jamdade, S. G. (2021). Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 spread in the Philippines
by October 13, 2020, by using the VARMAX time series method with preventive measures. Results
in Physics.

Nash, C. (2020, February 15). Harvard Professor: “Likely We’ll See” Coronavirus Pandemic. Mediaite.
https://www.mediaite.com/news/harvard-professor-sounds-alarm-on-likely-coronavirus-pandemic-
40-to-70-of-world-could-be-infected-this-year/

Sullivan, Michael. (2012). Algebra and Trigonometry (9th ed.). Boston: Prentice Hall

-END-

Prepared by: Ronnie John A. Pascua Reviewed by: Fortunato A. Tacuboy III
Position: Special Science Teacher (SST) III Position: Special Science Teacher (SST) V
Campus: PSHS-Iocos Region Campus Campus: PSHS-Main Campus

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