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Assignment: Forecasting: Instruction: Analyze Each Problem and Give What Is Asked. Round Off Your Answers To 2

This document provides instructions and 7 problems for forecasting auto and product sales. Students are asked to analyze time series data, calculate moving averages, exponential smoothing forecasts, trend lines, and mean squared errors to practice different forecasting techniques. The problems cover concepts like weighting past observations, updating forecasts based on new data, evaluating forecast accuracy, incorporating seasonality and growth into predictions.

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Ross John Jimenez
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35 views

Assignment: Forecasting: Instruction: Analyze Each Problem and Give What Is Asked. Round Off Your Answers To 2

This document provides instructions and 7 problems for forecasting auto and product sales. Students are asked to analyze time series data, calculate moving averages, exponential smoothing forecasts, trend lines, and mean squared errors to practice different forecasting techniques. The problems cover concepts like weighting past observations, updating forecasts based on new data, evaluating forecast accuracy, incorporating seasonality and growth into predictions.

Uploaded by

Ross John Jimenez
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment: Forecasting

Instruction: Analyze each problem and give what is asked. Round off your answers to 2
decimal places. NO NEED TO SHOW YOUR SOLUTIONS

Problem 1:
Auto sales at Carmen’s Chevrolet are shown below. Develop a 3-week moving average
from week 4 to 7. (Fill in the table)

Week Auto Sales Forecast

1 8 -

2 10 -

3 9 -

4 11

5 10

6 13

7 -

Problem 2:
Carmen’s decides to forecast auto sales by weighting the three weeks as follows:
(Copy the table above and fill in with your answers)

Weights Applied Period


3 Last week
2 Two weeks ago
1 Three weeks ago
6 Total

Problem 3:

1
A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with   0.1 to forecast demand. The
forecast for the week of January 1 was 500 units whereas the actual demand turned out
to be 450 units. Calculate the demand forecast for the week of January 8.

Problem 4:
Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales. Two value of  are
examined,   0.8 and   0.5. Evaluate the accuracy of each smoothing constant
using MAD. Which is preferable? (Assume the forecast for January was 22 batteries.)
Actual sales are given below:

Month Actual Battery Sales Forecast

January 20 22
 
February 21
 
March 15
 
April 14
 
May 13
 
June 16

Problem 5:
Use the sales data given below to determine: (a) the trend line equation, and (b) the
predicted value for 2021 sales.

Year Sales (Units)

2014 100

2015 110

2016 122

2017 130

2018 139

2019 152

2
2020 164

To minimize computations, transform the value of t (time) to simpler numbers. In this


case, designate year 2014 as year 1, 2015 as year 2, etc.

Problem: 6
Using the data in Problem 5, sales is expected to be 10% higher than the average in year
2021. Compute the forecasted demand for year 2021 adjusted for seasonality.

Problem 7:
Given the forecast demand and actual demand for 10-foot fishing boats, compute the
MSE.

Year Forecast Demand Actual Demand

1 78 71

2 75 80

3 83 101

4 84 84

5 88 60

6 85 73

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