ERSC 1P92 (Extreme Earth)

Module 4: Earthquakes

Module 4.1 What is an Earthquake?

 Earthquakes are the result of shock waves (also called "seismic waves" in this context)
that are generated by the sudden movement of adjacent rock bodies suddenly in response
to stress (forces) acting within the crust.  The rocks slowly deform as the stress builds but
when the strength of the rock is exceeded it suddenly breaks, releasing stored energy in
the form of shock waves that radiate outward from the center of breakage.
 The process is similar to slowly bending a dry stick of wood.  As you slowly apply a
force with your arms that causes the stick to bend slowly energy is stored in the wood
until the total force is sufficient to break the wood (the force exceeds the wood's
"strength").  When the stick breaks there is a sudden "snapping" sound and that is the
sound of the shock wave generated by the release of the energy that was stored while the
stick was bending.
 All earthquakes are generated in the crust or the upper mantle.
 Most earthquakes take place in response to motion along a fault.
 The following video is a demonstration of the breaking stick analogy of how an
earthquake is generated.  Seinfeld fans will comment that I should never consider
becoming a "hand model"....we can't all be like George Costanza!
 A fault is a plane passing through a body of rock and on either side of the plane the rocks
move in opposite directions.  The following diagram shows the major components of a
fault:
 Fault plane: the plane along which movement takes place.
 Hanging wall: the rock body that lies above the fault plane.
 Footwall: the rock body below the fault plane.

 There are four common types of fault:

 Normal Fault: formed when the hanging wall slides down the dipping fault plane.
 Reverse Fault: formed when the hanging wall slides up the dipping fault plane.
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 Thrust Fault: a reverse fault with a fault plane that dips (descends) at an angle of less
than 45 degrees to the horizontal.
 Note that these three fault times are all what is called "dip slip faults" because the
movement of rock is up or down the dip of the fault plane.
 A fault in which the movement is right angles to the dip of the fault plane is termed a
Strike Slip Fault.
 The following illustrates the these four types of fault.

 Anatomy of an Earthquake
o The following make up the important elements of an earthquake as illustrated in
the figure, below:
o Focus (or hypocentre): the point within the Earth that is the center of energy
release.
o Epicentre: the point on the ground surface immediately above the focus (closest
point on the surface to the focus).
o Wave front: a surface defining the front of the shock waves within the rock that
move outward from the focus.
o Ray Path: the direction in which a shock wave propagates through the crust.
 Types of shock waves generated by an earthquake
o There are several types of shock or seismic wave that are generated when an
earthquake takes place. "Body waves" are seismic waves that travel within the
Earth and "Surface Waves" are seismic waves that travel along the Earth's
surface.
o Body Waves
 P-waves (primary waves)
o P-waves travel through both liquids and solids within the Earth.
o These are the seismic waves that travel at the highest velocities away from the
focus.
o P-waves travel at 5 - 7 km/s in the Earth's crust, depending on the rock type
through which they travel.
o P-waves travel at over 8 km/s when they pass through the Earth's mantle.
 S-waves (secondary or shear waves)
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o These seismic waves cause a back and forth motion as they pass through rocks.
The motion may be in the horizontal plane (side to side) or vertical plane (up and
down). In the animation below the motion is shown in the vertical plane.
o S-waves travel through solids but do not travel through liquids.
o S-waves travel at slower velocities than P-waves.
o Through the crust S-waves travel at 3 to 4 km/s, depending on the type of rock
through which they pass.
o S-waves travel through the Earth's mantle at over 4.5 km/s
 Surface Waves
o Seismic waves that move over the Earth's surface cause the devastation that
accompany many earthquakes. These surface waves are actually two kinds of
seismic wave acting together: Love waves and Rayleigh waves. Both of these
wave types travel along the surface and are produced by the interaction of P- and
S-waves at the surface. Both diminish in affect rapidly with depth beneath the
surface.
o The combined effect of Love and Rayleigh waves is a period of up to several
minutes duration when the land surface moves up and down and back and forth
(across the ray path).
 Love Waves
o Produce a side to side motion on the surface that is at right angles to the ray path.
o The velocity of love waves varies between 2.0 and 4.0 km/s.
o They travel slightly faster than Rayleigh waves as they move over the Earth
surface.
 Rayleigh Waves
o These surface waves produce a "rolling" motion on the Earth's surface as they
travel in the direction of the ray path.
o The motion that is produced is a rising and falling of the surface as the Rayleigh
wave travels in the direction of the ray path.
o Rayleigh waves travel along the surface at velocities ranging from 2.0 to 4.2 km/s.
 Note that for a given earthquake the P-waves will be the first seismic waves to arrive at
any point on the Earth's surface, followed by the S-waves; the Surface Waves always
arrive last.

Module 4.2 Intensity and Magnitude of Earthquakes

 We describe the "power" or "strength" of an earthquake in two different ways. In terms
of its "intensity" and in terms of its "magnitude" as defined below:
 Intensity: an estimate of the effects of an earthquake at the ground surface.
 Magnitude: a measure or estimate of the energy released at the epicentre of the
earthquake.
 Earthquake Intensity
o Scales of earthquake "intensity" describe the extent and nature of damage that
takes place at the Earth's surface.
 Based on an estimate of the damage caused by an earthquake.
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 Earthquake intensity may be estimated simply by visual observation of the

damage along with eye-witness accounts of what was experienced at a
given location.
 The intensity is at a maximum at the epicentre, because it is the point on
the surface that is closest to the focus, and decreases with distance from
the epicentre.
o The following table is the Modified Mercalli Scale of Earthquake Intensity. The
left-hand column shows a numerical value of intensity (in roman numerals) and
the corresponding descriptive term for that intensity. The right hand column
gives a qualitative sense of the intensity.
I. Instrumental Detected only by seismographs
II. Feeble Noticed only by sensitive people.
III. Slight Resembling vibrations caused by heavy traffic.
IV. Moderate Felt by people walking; rocking of free standing objects
V. Rather strong Sleepers awakened and bells ring
VI. Strong Trees sway, some damage from overturning and falling objects
VII. Very strong General alarm, cracking of walls
VIII. Destructive Chimneys fall and there is some damage to buildings
IX. Ruinous Ground begins to crack, houses begin to collapse and pipes break.
Ground badly cracked and many buildings are destroyed. There are some
X.Disastrous
landslides.
XI.Very Few buildings remain standing; bridges and railways destroyed; water, gas,
Disastrous electricity and telephones out of action. 
Total destruction; objects are thrown into the air,much heaving, shaking and
XII.Catastrophic
distortion of the ground.
o Ok, so why is it the "Modified" Mercalli Scale? The scale is named after Italian
seismologist Giuseppe Mercalli (1850-1914) who modified a pre-existing scale of
earthquake intensity. Since Mercalli's death the scale has been modified further
by several others, including Charles Richter. Mercalli's original scale (and the
one that it was based on) had 10 levels of intensity but the modern "modified"
scale has 12 levels. Rather than having it named after all of those who have
improved or modified it we recognize their contribution in the word "modified".
 Earthquake Magnitude
o Scales of earthquake magnitude either measure or estimate the amount of energy
that is released at the focus of an earthquake. The Richter Scale has been the
most commonly used scale of earthquake magnitude for many years and we'll
look at it in some detail further along in this section.
o To determine the magnitude of an earthquake requires instruments to detect and
record the passage of seismic waves.
 Seismometers, seismographs, and seismograms
o Seismometer: an instrument that detects the passage of a shock wave through the
crust.
o Seismograph: the instrument that records the passage of a shock wave.
o Seismogram: the printed record of the shock waves.
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 The instrument was 2 metres in diameter with 8 precariously perched balls oriented with
the principle compass points. When an seismic waves pass under the instrument the ball
that is in line with the direction of the waves falls and is caught in the mouth of a ceramic
frog as shown in the drawing. When a ball is found to have dropped it is known that an
earthquake took place and the direction to the earthquake focus is known from which ball
fell.
 The first seismographs were based on the following basic design: a recording pen is
suspended on a free swinging weight that remains stationary while it's base shakes in
response to the passage of seismic waves passing through underlying bedrock. A paper
chart moves across the base at a known speed and the pen records the shaking as a trace
on the paper chart which has a scale to indicate the time that the shaking took place. The
following animation shows a very basic seismograph (a flaw in this animation is that the
paper chart is not moving).
 Seismographs and seismometers are always firmly fixed to bedrock so that they are less
likely to detect local vibrations such as those produced passing bus.
 The following image is of a seismogram and it provides data that can be used to
determine the time that the earthquake occurred, the distance from the recording
seismograph to the epicentre of the earthquake and the magnitude of the earthquake.
When data are collected for the same earthquake from seismograms produced at different
locations we can determine the specific location of the earthquake epicentre.
 Modern Seismometers
o Modern seismometers have electronic sensors and transmit their records digitally
and the seismogram is produced remotely from the seismometer. The following
schematically shows the modern configuration of equipment for collecting
seismic data.
 Richter Scale of Earthquake Magnitude
o Since it was developed in the 1930s the Richter Scale has been the most
commonly used scale to describe the magnitude of earthquakes. The scale is
based on the amplitude of seismic waves measured on a seismograph, corrected
for distance from the epicentre.
o The magnitude of an earthquake is proportional to the amount of energy released
at the focus. Unlike the scale of earthquake intensity, the magnitude does not
vary with distance from the earthquake. In the case of Richter scale with every
increase in magnitude by 1 represents an increase in the amount of energy
released by a factor of 32.
 Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes
o The largest magnitude that a "geological" earthquake can be is generally thought
to be about 9.5 magnitude on the Richter Scale.
o By geological earthquake I mean those earthquakes that are produced by energy
released within the crust due to shifting bodies of rock along faults.
o However, earthquakes that are produced by the energy released by the collision of
objects with Earth can well exceed 9.5 in magnitude, depending on the mass and
speed of the impacting object.
o The impact that formed the Chicxulub Crater (which caused the extinction of the
dinosaurs) is estimated to have produced a 12 magnitude or 13 magnitude
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earthquakes and even larger magnitudes are possible when larger objects collide
with Earth.
 Moment Magnitude of Earthquakes
o This is a relatively new approach to expressing the magnitude of an earthquake
that builds upon the method used to determine the Richter Scale. The calculation
of the moment magnitude uses data from the epicentre that describes the rigidity
of the rock that is displaced during the eqarthquake, the area of rock involved in
the movement that generated the earthquake, and the total distance of
displacement of the affected rocks due to the earthquake. Generally, the larger
the area over which movement takes place and/or the larger the distance of
displacement the greater the magnitude of the earthquake. Note that the
abbreviation or symbol for Moment Magnitude is Mw or M.

Module 4.3 Damage Due to Earthquakes

 The extent of damage that occurs due to an earthquake at a given location depends on the
earthquake's magnitude, the location's distance from the epicentre, the surficial geology
of the area of damage (bedrock differs from soft sediment) and, in urban areas, how well
building codes limit earthquake damage to human-made structures.
 The potential for damage is greatest at the epicentre and diminishes with increasing
distance from that point of the Earth's crust. However, some destructive outcomes of
earthquakes can expand the area of damage far beyond the earthquake itself.
 The major causes of damage include:
 Surface Vibration
o Caused by rolling surface waves.
o Ground motion and resulting damage is greater where the ground is made up of
soft, relatively loose sediment .
o In urban areas there may be major damage to buildings, gas and water supply
systems, sewers, etc.
o Ensuing fires can be particularly devastating due to lack of water supply.
 Landslides
o Surface waves will initiate landslides of loose surface material such as soil, loose
rocks and other debris. Landslides are a particular risk in areas of high relief.
o When a landslide flows into a river it can form a dam that holds the water back
until the water level rises, overtopping and washing out the blockage, often
causing floods and/or mudslides.
o Landslides and subsequent floods/mudslides can extend damage for considerable
distances away from the location of surface vibration.
 Liquefaction
o Sediments on the land surface are commonly saturated with water below the water
table and when surface vibrations act on such saturated sediment the water is
expelled upwards. As it rises it reduces the strength of the sediment which means
that it may no longer be able to bear the weight of structures that are built upon it.
Rapid water loss and weakening of sediment is referred to as "liquefaction" and
can cause additional damage in many parts of the world. As surface waves shake
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the wet soil it turns to quicksand and buildings on its surface sink and tilt and
even fall over.
 Here's how liquefaction works:
o Loose sand or soil is made up of solid particles and void spaces, the spaces
between solid particles. The loose sand has "strength" in that it can bear the
weight of things on its surface because the individual grains are "interlocked"
with each other. If water is abundant these void spaces will be filled with water.
When the ground shakes as seismic waves pass through it the solid particles may
move closer together and in doing so reduce the pore space. The amount of water
remains the same but after shaking there's no pore space for some of that water
because the pore space has been reduced as the solid particles move closer
together. This leaves "excess pore water" which is a volume of water equal to the
amount of pore space that was lost due to particles moving closer together in
response to the shaking. The excess pore water has nowhere to go but up towards
the surface. In moving upward this water pushes overlying particles apart as it
creates new space so that it can flow upwards. As the grains are pushed apart
they are no longer interlocked with each other and this creates "quicksand" that
behaves like a fluid. Structures that had rested firmly on that material can no
longer do so and they sink downwards into the soft slurry. In the video the
upward flow of water is illustrated by the ping pong ball that is buried in the
lower right hand corner of the container.....it was pushed upward to the surface by
the excess water.
 Tsunamis are generated when ocean waters are displaced by:
o Underwater earthquakes
o Underwater volcanic eruptions
o Underwater landslides
o Asteroid/comet impacts on oceans
 In the case of earthquakes, waves on the water surface are generated above a disturbance
on the sea floor; the waves propagate outward from that point.
 Earthquakes commonly generate tsunamis at the edge of the continental slope (in regions
associated with subduction, a process that may result in substantial earthquakes...more on
this later in the module).
 Part of the wave travels over the adjacent shelf reaching shore quickly.
 The other part travels across the ocean basin (12-14 hours across the Pacific Basin).
 Life of a Tsunami
 Stage 1: Initiation
o In some cases earthquakes cause displacement of the sea floor which, in turn,
causes displacement of the water surface (i.e., generating a wave).
o Many earthquakes are generated at trenches, close to shoreline and on the open
ocean
 Stage 2: Split
o The wave radiates outward from the epicentre. The shoreward part of the wave
travels a short distance to the shoreline. The ocean-ward wave travels at high
velocity across the basin. Wave celerity is proportional to the square root of water
depth so that it travels fastest over the open ocean (up to 6000m depth).
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o On the open ocean the tsunami waves have the following characteristics:
o Wave length: 160 km
o Wave height: commonly up to 0.5 metres on the open ocean.
o Celerity (the speed at which the wave propagates across the water surface): up to
800 km/hr
 Stage 3: Amplification
o As a wave approaches land and enters shallower water it becomes higher
(amplified), shorter and slower.
 Stage 4. Runup
o As the wave propagates towards land the water level rises and flows inland,
temporarily moving the shoreline further landward.
o In some cases the trough of the wave reaches land first and the water recedes from
the shoreline and then returns as the wave reaches land.
o Runup is the measure of the height of the wave (with respect to sea level) when it
passes over land.
o In most cases the wave does not form a “crashing” surf; the water rises and flows
inland as a powerful current.
o Following maximum runup the waters flow back offshore, carrying floating
objects out to sea. The initial wave may be followed by subsequent waves.
o The first wave of a tsunami may or may not be the biggest.
o The largest recorded tsunami that had crossed open ocean was 85 metres at
landfall (at an Island south of Japan).
o The highest elevation attained by a tsunami wave at landfall is 524 m when a
landslide in Lituya Bay, Alaska, caused a wave that crossed a short distance from
one side of an inlet to the other.
 Tsunami Detection and Warning
o In 1946 an earthquake off the coast of the Aleutian Islands generated a tsunami
that propagated across the Pacific basin and making landfall on the Hawaiian
Islands up to almost 20 m in height. A total of 159 people, all US citizens, lost
their lives directly due to the Tsunami. The town of Hilo, was particularly hard
hit by the tsunami and it was struck again in May 1960 by a tsunami was was
generated by an earthquake off the coast of Chile, this time resulting in 61
casualties (see the table, above).
o In response to the threat of tsunamis in the Pacific basin the US government,
through its agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), set out to establish a tsunami warning system to protect US states in the
Pacific Ocean. The ultimate plan was to establish a system of floating buoys in
the ocean where earthquakes are known to be generated and equip the buoys with
sensors to detect a tsunami and then broadcast a warning to US locations. The
expectation was that a buoy positioned off the coast of the Aleutian Islands or the
coast of Chile could provide several hours of forewarning of an incoming
tsunami, enough time for people to move to higher ground and limit the loss of
life due to the waves.
o By 2001 (3 years prior to the devastating tsunami that ravaged the Indian Ocean
in 2004) the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) system
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was in place with 6 buoys, a seventh planned for the future, and a few other
locations were proposed for buoy deployment. The map below shows the
location of the buoys in 2001.
o While the tsunami of late 2004 rocked the world as one of worst natural disasters
of historic time (it ranked 8th in terms of fatalities) it had the positive outcome of
leading to a significant expansion of the area of protection by DART buoys over
the Pacific and Indian oceans. In addition, a paper that was published in 2001 that
predicted and described a massive tsunami (now called a megatsunami) in the
Atlantic Ocean, led to deployment of buoys in that ocean as well. Today
protection is afforded by a much larger array of buoys than had been the case
prior to 2004. The map below shows the current location of all buoys that are part
of the DART system (which is now truly international in scale).
o Note in the above map that Ecuador owns five buoys in the DART system: two
off of its own coast and three off the coast of Japan, an area that has historically
been the site of tsunami generation (for example the 2011 tsunami that was
generated by an 8.9 M earthquake). Ecuador paid for the three buoys on the
opposite side of the Pacific to provide about 12 hours of forewarning of an
incoming tsunamis that are generated in that part of the Pacific basin.
o
o They buoys that float on the ocean surface are actually just a part of the detection
system that is deployed at each location. The most important element of detection
is anchored to the sea floor; a "tsunameter" that measures the water pressure on
the sea floor in such detail that it detects changes in pressure due to a tsunami
passing across the water surface. The tsunameter collects data on the pressure
variation and if it is enough to suggest that as tsunami is passing it sends a signal
to a receiver/transmitter on the buoy that, in turn, transmits a signal to provide
warning of the wave's presence. The equipment is designed to detect tsunamis as
small as 1 cm high on the open ocean in water up to 6000m deep. In order to
resolve such small waves it is necessary to distinguish them from normal, small
wave-length water surface waves and this is accomplished by computer programs
that analyze the data as it is collected. The following video provides an animation
of how the equipment operates.
o The live version of the above map can be visited by clicking on the link below.
Note that on the live map if you put your mouse curser on a coloured dot
indicating a DART buoy location you will see a graph recording changing water
levels over the past several days. The graphs show smooth curves reflecting
systematic variation in water level due to very long waves on the ocean surface
that results in tides. Tsunami waves appear as deflections from the smooth
curves.
 Mega Tsunamis
o While many historic tsunamis have had devastating outcomes the geologic record
tells us that even larger tsunamis have taken place in the geologic past (before
recorded history) and that it is certain that such "megatsunamis" will take place in
the future. The following video describes an example of an ancient megatsunami
and then describes the results of a study that was published in 2002 which
suggested that a megatunami was possible, if not likely, and then went on to use
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computer models to describe just what such an event would look like. This paper
provided at least some impetus for the placement of extending the DART program
to the Atlantic Ocean.

Module 4.4 The Distribution of Earthquakes

 Where do earthquakes take place?
o The best way to answer this question is to look at a map of the world showing
where earthquakes have happened in the past. It's likely that future earthquakes
will have the same general distribution
o The following map shows the location of all earthquakes that took place from
1975 to 1995 world wide. Note that the colour of the points representing
earthquake epicentres indicates the depth of the earthquake according to the scale
at the bottom of the map.
o The map, above, shows that earthquakes are not randomly scattered all over the
world but appear to be found in specific parts of the world. If you compare this
map to the map of plate boundaries in the Module of Plate Tectonics you will see
that most earthquakes occur in the following settings:
1. Along oceanic trenches.
2. In regions of continental collision.
3. Along oceanic ridges and transform faults.
o There are also a significant number of earthquakes that take place within plates,
well away from plate margins. These earthquakes are called “intracratonic”
earthquakes because they occur within the craton, the oldest, tectonically stable
portion of any continent. In this section we will focus on the most common
earthquakes, those that take place along plate boundaries that are listed above.
 Oceanic trenches
o Recall that oceanic trenches are convergent plate boundaries where one plate (of
oceanic crust) subducts beneath an over-ridding plate (of either oceanic or
continental crust). As the subducting plate slides under the over-riding plate it
does not always do so smoothly. Sometimes the plates get "stuck" and cannot
move even though the tectonic forces continue to be exerted on them. In cases
like this strain accumulates until the stuck rocks "break" releasing the stored strain
energy as an earthquake.
o Earthquakes that are generated along trenches all show the same pattern of
earthquakes: the earthquake foci become progressively deeper in the direction of
subduction.
o The following figure is a map showing this distribution of earthquakes for the
case of a plate of oceanic crust being subducted beneath another plate of oceanic
crust. The coloured dots indicate the position and depth of earthquakes that are
generated by subduction.
o The earthquake foci are shallowest immediately adjacent to the trench and
become progressively deeper in the direction of subduction, passing beneath the
overlying island arc and continuing until the subducting crust if fully weakened
due to the heat of the upper mantle. The maximum depth of earthquakes in this
setting is about 700km because below that depth the subducting crust has
weakened to the point where it is no longer brittle so that it is not capable of
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storing strain energy. In subduction settings the range in depth from the
shallowest to the deepest earthquakes is called the Wadati-Benioff Zone. Note
that if you refer back to the map at the top of this Sakai page (map showing global
distribution of earthquakes) you'll see a similar pattern of shallow to deep
earthquakes along all of the oceanic trenches.
o The above figure shows how the earthquake foci delineate the path of the
subducting crust as it moves down into the upper mantle; note that the angle of
subduction along trenches is most commonly between 45 and 60 degrees from the
horizontal but is known to be much shallower or steeper in many parts of the
world.
o Note that most earthquakes occur along the top of or within the subducting plate
although some are associated with the island arc.
o Along real oceanic trenches we can use the location of earthquake foci to
visualize the shape of the subducting slab of oceanic crust. The figure below is
similar to the schematic map above but it is based on actual earthquake data along
the Tonga Trench in the Pacific Ocean. The colour code at the bottom of the map
shows the depth of foci represented by the dots. You can see that the earthquake
foci become deeper as you move from right to left across the map, indicating that
subduction must also be taking place in the direction from right to left.
o The following shows cross-sections along the lines across the map to illustrate the
shape of the subducting slab of crust along each location. Note that the steepness
of the angle of subduction increases from north (line A-A') to south (line F-F')
where it is almost 90 degrees, nearly diving straight downward into he mantle.
o The data that was used to make the cross-sections has provided a basis for
constructing the following diagram that shows the complex structure of the crust
along the Tonga Trench as it undergoes subduction. This technique gives
geologists a glimpse at something that they would not be able to observe so
clearly by any other means. Because of the pattern of earthquakes associated with
subduction we can see into the upper part of the mantle.
o The pattern of increasing earthquake foci depth is the same along oceanic trenches
formed where oceanic crust is subducted beneath continental crust; earthquake
foci increase in depth in the direction of subduction, beneath the over-riding
continental crust. The next figure shows the details of the distribution of
earthquake foci along the Peru-Chile trench where oceanic crust is subducting
eastward beneath the over-riding South American plate so that earthquake foci
become deeper from left to right across the map.
 In regions of continental collision
o Recall that another type of convergent plate margin forms where two plates, both
made up of continental crust, converge on each other. Unlike along oceanic
trenches, one continental plate does not slide beneath the other because both are
too light to descend into the Mantle. Instead the two continental plates push
against each other and the opposing forces cause the rocks to form broad folds
and create faults (including very extensive thrust faults along which total
movement can be up to a couple of hundred kilometres). The end result of the
work of these forces is to thicken the crust such that large mountain belts form,
extending all along the region of convergence.
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o The Himalaya Mountains are the most recently developed mountain range to form
from the processes that result from the convergence of continental plates; in this
case collision of the former Indian Plate with the Eurasian Plate. The following
map shows the distribution of earthquakes around the Himalayan Mountains.
Note that the very deep earthquake foci that characterize subduction along
oceanic trenches are missing in the rising mountains of the Himalayan and similar
mountain belts. This is because subduction is not taking place so that solid crust
does not extend as deep where continental plates collide.
o Most of the Himalayan earthquakes have relatively shallow foci and all are
limited to movements within the thickened continental crust. Convergent forces
push the rocks together and movement takes place along faults but often this does
not take place smoothly when opposing blocks become locked. In such cases
strain accumulates until the rocks break, releasing the accumulated energy to
cause an earthquake.
o Construction of the Himalyan Mountains began about 70 million years ago when
India made up a separate plate that began to drift northeastward towards the
Eurasian Plate. For millions of years oceanic crust subducted beneath the
Eurasian Plate to form mountains like the modern Andes mountains of South
America. Then about 10 million years ago the thick Indian subcontinent (made
up of continental crust on the separate Indian Plate) began to push directly against
the Asian plate and the current phase of mountain building began, along with the
millions of earthquakes that would take place, and will continue to take place, as
this process continues.
o The development of thrust faults thickened the crust to form the Himalayan
Mountains and ongoing thrusting of the Eurasian crust formed the highland of the
Tibetan Plateau. Most earthquakes are generated with the movement related to
thrusting.
 Oceanic Ridges and Transform Faults
o Many earthquakes are associated with oceanic ridges and transform faults, two
different (though integrally related) plate boundaries. Both are characterized by
relatively shallow focus earthquakes, in contrast to convergent margins which are
characterized by earthquakes which range from shallow to deep (occurring in
parallel bands of similar depth rather than mixing all depths randomly).
o The following map shows how earthquake epicentres parallel the oceanic ridge.
The earthquakes shown include both those that take place along the ridge and
those that occur on transform faults; they cannot be distinguished at the scale used
for this map.
o Along the ridge axis there are earthquakes that are generated as the crust is pushed
away from the axis as new crust forms by volcanic processes. As forces that
result in sea floor spreading cause the crustal rocks to move laterally they
periodically become stuck until they break, generating an earthquake.
o Transform faults offset the oceanic ridge at approximately right angles to the
ridge's axis. The active fault lies between the two offset segments of ridge so that
on either side of the fault the motion of the crust is in opposite directions. Hence,
there is relative movement between the rocks on either side of the fault (between
ridge segments) and this movement periodically results in earthquakes. Think
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about the relationship between the transform fault and the movement caused by
seafloor spreading away from the ridge axis to make sure that you understand the
motion along the transform fault.
o The best known transform fault is one that is unusual because it passes through
Continental crust whereas most affect only oceanic crust. The following map
shows the San Andreas Fault linking a segment of oceanic ridge in the north (that
ridge is a boundary between the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates) and a segment of
ridge in the south (a ridge that is a boundary between the Pacific and North
American plates).
o If you look at the relative motion associated with the northern and southern ridge
it will become apparent that to the east of the San Andreas Fault the crust is
moving southeastward (due to the northern ridge segment) and the crust to the
west of the fault is moving in the opposite direction, the northwest. This relative
movement periodically results in earthquakes after the two plates become locked
and then release accumulated strain when the rocks break....yet again to cause an
earthquake.
o Because of the San Andreas Fault this part of North America is of the most
earthquake prone pieces of real estate in the world. The fault experiences over
15,000 earthquakes per year!
o If you inspect the map of the San Andreas Fault you should get some idea of how
this unusual tectonic situation came to be (that is, a transform fault passing
through continental crust). It is the result of the subduction of an oceanic ridge
beneath the North American Plate. The following brief video shows how this
happened over the past 40 million years and led to the total subduction of a plate
that is now gone but is referred to as the Farallon Plate.

Module 4.5 Predicting Earthquakes

 Geologists have worked for many years to improve our ability to identify areas that are
prone to earthquakes and to even predict when and where an earthquake will take place.
There are two different approaches to earthquake prediction: long term prediction and
short term prediction . Both contribute to reducing the risk posed by earthquakes by
allowing appropriate responses that range from building structures that will withstand
earthquakes (long term prediction) to warning people to seek shelter to protect from
damage due to surface waves that are only tens of seconds away.
 Long term prediction
o Long term prediction of earthquakes requires a good understanding of the
earthquake risk for a particular area (recall that risk is based on the frequency and
magnitude of the risk-posing event). Long term earthquake prediction takes a
probabilistic approach, asking the question "What is the likelihood of an
earthquake of a given intensity taking place at a given location?" The answer to
this question can be found in the historical record of earthquakes, their frequency,
magnitude an spatial distribution. The historical record is the basis of long term
earthquake prediction because it's generally reasonable to assume that earthquakes
will take place in future at the same rate, in the same locations and with the same
range of magnitude that they have in the past.
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o The seismic history of an area provides a basis for determining the level of risk
posed by earthquakes for that area.
o The following map shows the location of all Earthquakes that have taken place in
Canada over the period of time from 1627 to 2012. This map clearly shows that
earthquakes are far from being uniformly distributed around the country but
appear to be concentrated around the margins of the continent. Furthermore, the
map shows that the highest concentration of earthquakes with magnitudes greater
than 6.5 occur along the west coast and lowest concentration occurs in the central
portions of the country (e.g., there have been no earthquakes recorded in northern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba).
o Seismic hazard maps like this one help us to respond to the risk of earthquakes by
better planning:
o Areas of high risk will require more building codes and construction standards
that will produce buildings that will stand up to anticipated surface movement
associated with earthquakes than areas where risk is small.
o Insurance companies use maps like this to establish regional rates that recognize
differences in risk of costly damage due to earthquakes (rates higher in high-risk
areas).
o Governments use such maps to informs risk-based site selection (e.g., for nuclear
power plants) to avoid their construction in areas where the earthquake risks are
high.
 Seismic Gaps
o Seismic gaps are regions where earthquakes do not take place with the frequency
and/or magnitude that is expected for a given tectonic setting. For example, we
know from the world-wide distribution of earthquakes that areas that are adjacent
to oceanic trenches should experience earthquakes on a fairly regular basis. Much
fewer earthquakes along a trench may be due to smooth and steady subduction of
plates so that earthquakes are not often generated. Alternatively, a paucity of
earthquakes along a trench may occur where plates involved have been "stuck" or
"hung up" for a very long period of time without breaking to produce earthquakes.
If this is the case it means that strain has continued to accumulate for a very long
time so that more and more potential energy is being stored and eventually, when
the rock strength is exceeded, a particularly large magnitude earthquake will take
place (up to about magnitude 9.5). So, seismically quiet areas adjacent to
trenches may not be areas of low risk, rather they may actually be particularly
prone to infrequent but very large magnitude earthquakes that take place several
hundred years apart. If the written history for the area is relatively short (as is the
case in much of North America) then previous large earthquakes may just have
not occurred over historic times.
o So, if the plates are moving without significant resistance a seismic gap may just
be an area where earthquakes will never happen with the frequency and
magnitude expected OR a seismic gap may be an area of extreme risk of
infrequent but very high magnitude earthquakes.  We won't know until a big one
happens!
 Short term prediction
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o Short term prediction of earthquakes rely on a variety of methods that identify

precursor events, which are events that have been observed to occur prior to
earthquakes many times in the past. The most reliable precursor events are those
that more commonly are followed by an earthquake. Several such precursor
events show promise but none have been demonstrated as being fool proof. The
follow section describes some of these approaches to short term prediction of
earthquakes.
o The value of short term earthquake prediction is that such predictions would
provide an opportunity to prepare for the event that could possibly include
evacuation from the area at risk.
 Ground level deformation
o As rocks deform in response to accumulating strain (like the bending stick) and
approach their breaking point small-scale breakage takes place and small fractures
(microfractures) begin to form, each producing what we call "microearthquakes";
microearthquakes are defined as earthquakes having a magnitude of 2 or less.
The following video demonstrates the simulation of microearthquakes by
breaking a dry stick.
o One outcome of microfractures is that they create void spaces within the rock and
the addition of that space increases the total volume of the rock that is affected.
As the strain continues to build the microfractures continue to add volume to the
rock and in many areas the increased volume results in uplift of the land above the
site of strain accumulation which will ultimately be the focus of an earthquake.
o By carefully measuring the ground level elevation it is hoped that we can
recognize areas where the land is uplifting due to strain accumulation; in this case
the uplifting land surface would be the precursor event that tells us that an
earthquake is likely to take place with a focus beneath the uplifted surface. This
method works best where earthquake foci tend to be relatively shallow.
 Groundwater Chemistry
o Another outcome of the microfracturing that takes place as strain accumulates in
rocks prior to an earthquake is that the opening up of the rocks as the fractures
develop releases gases that were trapped within the minerals making up the rocks.
For example, uranium-238 is a radioactive isotope that can become incorporated
in small quantities in some minerals that make up rocks. This isotope undergoes
radioactive decay, producing radon gas which is then trapped within the minerals.
When microfractures form in the rocks containing radon it escapes into the newly
formed void spaces. If the rocks are below the water table, where all void spaces
become filled with water, the radon gas dissolves into that water.
o In areas where strain begins to accumulate in rocks, samples of groundwater
collected from wells, display an increase in the concentration of radon as more
and more microfractures release the gas as strain builds towards an earthquake.
Thus, a spike in radon concentration in well water is sometimes a precursor event
for an earthquake. The following figure shows such an increase in radon in
groundwater at the town of Guzan which is about 320 km from the epicentre of a
7.2 magnitude earthquake in Songpan and Pingwu, China in 1976. The graphs
show that the concentration of radon in well water increased by approximately
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60% 6 days prior to the earthquake. A similar relationship has been observed at
several other locations around the world.
o Some solid elements have shown similar increases in concentration in well water
prior to earthquakes, suggesting that this method has considerable potential for
short term forewarning of an impending earthquake.
 Microearthquake swarms
o As strain builds in rocks that are under an applied stress, the formation of
microfractures involves the release of a small amount of energy that produces
microearthquakes. Sensitive seismometers can record these small earthquakes
and geologists have found that prior to some earthquakes they detect an increase
in the number of microearthquakes, peaking in number just prior to a major
earthquake. Studies are under way to determine if monitoring microearthquake
activity in areas with a history of earthquakes is a reliable approach to short term
earthquake prediction.
 Direct Sensors
o The Japanese government has led the way in placing seismometers in offshore
locations along trenches so that they are very close to the epicentres of dangerous
high magnitude earthquakes. The seismometers are used to detect the first arrival
of P-waves (the fastest seismic waves and, therefore, the first waves to travel to
the sensor). When a P-wave is detected the seismometer sends an emergency
signal to the mainland where an alarm system alerts the populace that ground
motion due to the propagation of surface waves is imminent. Because the signal
reaches land almost instantaneously and the surface waves, that are responsible
for the destructive ground movement, travel much slower than the P and S waves
the alarm system gives people a short but valuable period of time to take
immediate action to reduce personal injury. Tens of seconds of forewarning can
make a huge difference in responding to an imminent earthquake; a seismometer
that is 200 km off shore of a location on land and a P-wave arrives from a nearby
earthquake, the alert that is issued can provide that location with up to
approximately 30 seconds of warning prior to the arrival of the surface waves.
o Earthquake warnings based on direct sensors provide a small amount of time to
respond just before the shock waves begin at your location and what you do
during that time can minimize personal injury. It's important to know what to do
in response to such a warning but there are also many ways to prepare for the
affects of an earthquake well before one takes place. The following link will take
you to the Government of Canada's web page on earthquake preparedness; it
provides good advice on what to do before, during and after an earthquake:
 Earthquake Storms
o Along some faults when an earthquake takes place stress becomes concentrated
elsewhere along the fault and leads to another earthquake. Earthquake storms are
a series of earthquakes in sequence along a fault or fault system. Recognizing
faults that experience earthquake storms provides another tool for relatively short-
term prediction of where and when a future earthquake will take place.

Module 4.6 Megathrust Earthquakes

 Megathrust Earthquakes
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 Large magnitude earthquakes are among the deadliest natural disasters of historic times.
In fact, 5 of the top 10 deadliest historic natural disasters are attributed to earthquakes
(earthquakes hold the 3rd, 4th, 8th, 9th,10th positions in Wikipedia's list of worst natural
disasters). The number of fatalities and the dollar cost of damage that result from an
earthquake depend on a combination of a number of factors:
o The magnitude of the earthquake and its distance from populated areas
o The possibility of production of secondary natural disasters (tsunamis, landslide,
liquefaction, etc.)
o The population density in the area of affected by the earthquake
o The level of preparedness of the population affected (which depend on building
codes and the existence of a warning system both of which depends to some
extent on the "wealth" of the population)
 The magnitude and location of the earthquake are fundamental to determining the
devastation of any given earthquake. However, the "human" factors are independent of
the earthquake itself but also play a huge role in determining the outcome of an
earthquake.
 A megathrust earthquake is the most dangerous kind of earthquake that is produced by
plate tectonic process. They occur in regions of subduction where a plate of oceanic crust
slides beneath an over-riding plate of continental crust (recall that an oceanic trench
marks the boundary between the two plates). In this situation earthquakes happen after
the two plates become locked so that they no longer move relative to each other. The
forces that are applied by the over-riding plate and the subducting plate continue to act
even though the plates are locked and strain accumulates until the locked plates are
released along with the stored energy to produce an earthquake. While strain is
accumulating the overlying plate typically bends downward along the trench and flexes
upward at some distance away from the trench. When strain is released as an earthquake
takes place the location of uplift rapidly shifts toward the trench.
 The following cartoon illustrates how a megathrust fault behaves. The top part of the
figure shows the flexure that takes place with strain accumulation while the over-riding
plate (green) and subducting plate (orange) are locked. The middle part of the figure
shows the situation just as the earthquake happens and the two plates unlock or "break"
releasing the stored strain energy and reversing the flexure caused while strain was
accumulating. The bottom part of the figure shows the shape of the over-riding plate's
surface as it returns to "normal".
 Why are they called megathrust earthquakes?
 The plane defined by the top of the subducting plate is a fault plane because the rocks
above and below that plane are moving opposite directions.  The plate below the plane is
moving in the direction of subduction and the plate overlying the plane is moving in the
opposite direction.
 Megathrusts are thrust faults because the movement of the hanging wall (the rocks above
the fault plane) is up the slope of the fault plane  and the angle at which the fault plane
dips is less than 45 degrees from the horizontal.
 They are mega thrusts because they produce the largest magnitude earthquakes possible
through normal geological processes on Earth (the only larger magnitude earthquakes are
produced by impact by space objects).
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 Megathrust earthquakes involve movement of rock over much larger areas of the fault
plane than "normal" earthquakes and that contributes to the large magnitude of
megathrust earthquake.  Similarly, strain energy often accumulates slowly over very long
periods of time (up to hundreds of years) along megathrust faults so that a tremendous
amount of energy is released at the time that the rocks rupture or break.  Many of the
areas that have been identified as being "seismic gaps" around the Pacific Basin may well
be areas where strain is accumulating over very long periods of time (hence the paucity
of earthquakes) and they may eventually produce large magnitude megathrust
earthquakes.  These two factors, the large area of rock involved and the amount of strain
energy that is stored in the rocks, combine to make megathrust earthquakes the most
powerful of all earthquakes.  In fact, some definitions of megathrust earthquake include
the condition that they must have a magnitude of 9.0 or greater to be classified as being
megathrusts.

 Megathrust earthquakes produce the greatest amount of damage due to surface vibration
because of the large amount of energy that is produced and due to the relatively long
duration of shaking (often several minutes compared to durations to tens of seconds of
shaking during non-megathrust earthquakes). The long duration of megathrust
earthquakes is because of the vast area that is involved in movement along the fault.

 The catastrophic effects of many megathrust earthquakes is worsened when a large

tsunami is generated by the sea floor surface displacement as the edge of the over-riding
continental plate flexes rapidly upward as the earthquake is taking place. Because
displacement of the sea floor take place on the landward side of an oceanic trench, the
distance to shore is fairly close so that the large waves reach the shoreline shortly after
the earthquake so that there is little warning for people to get to high ground to avoid the
affects of the waves. The most destructive tsunamis since 1900 have been the result of
megathrust earthquakes.


 The affect on the earth of large magnitude megathrust earthquakes is awesome (in the
true sense of the word). The amount of energy that is released is so powerful that it rocks
the entire planet on its rotational axis. The devastation caused by the Dec. 26 2004
earthquake due to ground shaking and especially the tsunami was clearly evident in the
massive media coverage of this tragic natural disaster. However, the power of the
earthquake is driven home by the fact that the sudden release of energy caused the earth
to wobble on its rotational axis, shortening the period of rotation (length of a day) by
0.0000027 seconds and moved the position of the geographic poles (the intersection of
the rotational axes at Earth's surface) by 2.5 centimetres! So, the world changed for
everyone on Dec. 26, 2004.

 Future Megathrust Earthquakes?


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 The two deadliest earthquakes over historic times were not megathrust earthquakes.
These were the Shaanxi, China, earthquake that took place in 1556 (estimated magnitude
8.0 with a death toll estimated at 830,000) and the Tangshan, China, earthquake of 1976
(official magnitude 7.8 with death toll estimated at 655,000). Both of these were in
mainland China, well away from settings where megathrust earthquakes will develop.
While the magnitudes of both of the Chinese earthquakes are significant the very high
death tolls can be attributed to a combination of high population densities, a lack of
forewarning and building standards that allowed structures that could not stand up to such
high magnitude events. In contrast, a 9.0 magnitude megathrust earthquake that took
place off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, resulted in 15,891 fatalities, most of
which took place due to the tsunami that was produced by the earthquake. An important
part of the reason that the number of fatalities was remarkably low is that Japan is a
relatively wealthy country with strict requirements to ensure that buildings resist
destruction due to seismic shaking and a warning system that provides some opportunity
for the population to prepare for the onset of surface waves.

 As the human population continues to grow, particularly in densely populated urban

centres, and "urban decay" continues we can expect greater numbers of fatalities from
earthquakes of all types but especially megathruast earthquakes due to their high
magnitude and their tendency to produce very destructive tsunamis.

 A recent study by scientists from the United States Geological Survey estimates that the
number of earthquake fatalities world-wide will grow from 1.6 million over the period
1900 to 2000 to 2.6 million over the period from 2000 to 2100. This estimate is based on
population growth and the distribution of the population.


 Compared to the devastation caused by the impact of large asteroids like the one that
caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, the damage caused directly by earthquakes is
relatively small (although often very tragic for those who live through them) . However,
while the destruction of individual earthquakes pales in comparison to the devastation
caused by major impact events, earthquakes cumulatively cause a huge amount of
damage and loss of life. Earthquakes may be of lower magnitude in terms of damage and
fatalities but their relatively high frequency makes them a high risk to humans. The
article entitled "The Odds of Dying" that was published in Livescience in 2005 states that
the odds of dying due to an earthquake are 1 in 131,890 whereas the odds of dying due to
an asteroid impact are 1 in 200,000. The greater likelihood of death by earthquake than
asteroid impacts is largely due to the much greater frequency with which earthquakes
occur.
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