1751 POM: Midterm Exam

MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. A forecaster must decide on the value of this factor before he can use the simple moving
average model. *
1 point
Actual demand for each period
Averaging period M3 U3 P4
Exponential smoothing constant
Weights
2. A forecaster must decide on the value of this factor before he can use the exponential
smoothing model. *
1 point
Actual demand for each period
Averaging period
Exponential smoothing constant M3 U3 P8
Weights
3. A forecaster must calculate this value to assess the accuracy of a time series forecasting
model. *
1 point
Averaging period
Correlation coefficient
Exponential smoothing constant
Mean absolute deviation M3 U3 P10, M3 U4 P1
4. A set of data collected and recorded at regular intervals of time. *
1 point
Actual demand data
Demand forecast data
Sales data
Time series data M3 U2 P3
5. In this forecasting method, managers of the organization discuss and must reach a consensus
to arrive at a forecast. *
1 point
Delphi technique
Executive opinion M3 U2 P3
Historical analogy
Salesforce composite
6. In this forecasting method, the actual demand data for the most recent period is adopted as
the forecast for the immediately succeeding period. *
1 point
Naive approach M3 U3 P3
Simple moving average
Historical analogy
Exponential smoothing
7. This description of the future is a major basis of planning and all the other management
functions. *
1 point
Exponential smoothing
Forecast
Linear regression
Time series
8. A forecaster is attempting to predict the demand for a newly introduced Product A by
assuming that it would behave as the demand pattern of Product X, a similar product that has
been in the market for at least 5 years; which of the following forecasting models is being
used? *
1 point
Executive opinion
Historical analogy M3 U2 P2
Market survey
Naive approach
9. This general classification of forecasting methods predominantly uses personal opinion or
subjective judgment. *
1 point
Linear regression
Qualitative M3 U2 P2
Quantitative
Time series
10. Which forecasting model assumes that what will happen in the immediately succeeding
period is most likely similar to what happened this period than to that of, say, three periods
ago? *
1 point
Delphi technique
Linear regression
Naive approach
Weighted moving average
11. In this layout design, the facility is arranged such that workstations and equipment are
grouped together according to the function that they perform. *
1 point
Cellular
Fixed-position
Process M4 U1 P6
Product
12. In this layout design, the facility is arranged such that workstations and equipment are in a
line to provide the sequence of operations required to create the product.  *
1 point
Cellular
Fixed-position
Process
Product M4 U1 P6
13. Conversion systems that produce low volume, high variety products. *
1 point
Batch
Continuous
Intermittent M4 U1 P5
Repetitive
14. Conversion systems that produce high volume, low variety products. *
1 point
Batch
Continuous M4 U1 P5
Intermittent
Repetitive
15. Facility layout design appropriate for intermittent operations. *
1 point
Cellular
Fixed-position
Process M4 U1 P6
Product
16. Facility layout design appropriate for continuous operations. *
1 point
Cellular
Fixed-position
Process
Product M4 U1 P6
17. Mathematical model appropriate for process layout design. *
1 point
Cellular
Fixed-position
Line balancing
Load-distance M4 U1 P7
18. Mathematical model appropriate for product layout design. *
1 point
Cellular
Fixed-position
Line balancing M4 U1 P9
Load-distance
19. Data needed when designing a facility according to process layout design.  *
1 point
Number of loads (people, materials, products) to be moved between departments
Output capacity
Precedence requirements
Tasks to be done
20. Following are data needed when designing a facility according to product layout design,
EXCEPT: *
1 point
Distance between pairs of departments
Operating time
Output capacity
Tasks to be done
TIME SERIES FORECASTING
Demand for haircut at PogiPoints Barber Shop has increased steadily for the past few months
as seen in the following time series data. Do the necessary computations and choose the best
answer that would complete each statement.
 Haircuts FORECAST
Month performed NA SMA n=2 WMA; ES α = 0.8
0.2,0.3,0.5
n=3
F /A – F /A – F/ F /A – F/ F /A – F/
F/
1 450 450
2 495 450 450
3 520 495 472.5 486
4 563 520 43 507.5 55.5 498.5 64.5 513.2 49.8
5 584 563 21 541.5 42.5 536.5 47.5 553.04 30.96
6 584 573.5 564.9 577.808
MAD 64 98 113 80.76

1. The 2-month SMA forecast for Month 6 would be: *

2 points
565 haircuts
574 haircuts
578 haircuts
584 haircuts
2. With weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, the WMA forecast for Month 6 would be: *
2 points
565 haircuts
574 haircuts
578 haircuts
584 haircuts
3. With alpha = 0.8, the ES forecast for Month 6 would be: *
2 points
565 haircuts
574 haircuts
578 haircuts
584 haircuts
4. With MAD as the criterion, the best forecasting model for this time series data is:  *
2 points
Naïve approach (least MAD)
2-week SMA
WMA with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2
D. ES with alpha = 0.8
5. The demand forecast for Month 6 would be: *
2 points
565 haircuts
574 haircuts
578 haircuts
584 haircuts
LINEAR REGRESSION FORECASTING
Carpet World wants to develop a means to forecast its carpet sales. The store manager would
like to confirm which of two possible variables – time period vs. monthly house construction
permits – is a better indicator of carpet sales. The manager has gathered data from city records
of monthly house construction permits and from store records on monthly sales. The data are
as follows. Do the necessary computations (express your results up to 2 decimal places) and
choose the best answer that would complete each statement.

Time period Monthly

(Month) Carpet
X Sales XY X² Y²
(1,000
yards)
Y
1 5 5 1 25
2 10 20 4 100
3 4 12 9 16
4 3 12 16 9
5 8 40 25 64
6 2 12 36 4
7 12 84 49 144
8 11 88 64 121
9 9 81 81 81
10 14 140 100 196
Σx= 55 Σy= 78 Σxy= 494 Σx²= 385 Σy²= 760
(Σx)²= 3,025 (Σy)²= 6,084
 Monthly Monthly
permits Carpet
(100 sq. ft.) Sales XY X² Y²
X (P10,000)
Y
21 5 105 441 25
35 10 350 1,225 100
10 4 40 100 16
12 3 36 144 9
16 8 128 256 64
9 2 18 81 4
40 12 480 1,600 144
25 11 275 625 121
18 9 162 324 81
26 14 364 676 196
Σx= 212 Σy= 78 Σxy= 1,958 Σx²= 5,472 Σy²= 760
(Σx)²= 44,944 (Σy)²= 6,084

1. With Time Period as the independent variable, the equation of the regression line is:  *
2 points
y = 0.31 + 1.20x
y = 0.79 + 3.47x
y = 1.20 + 0.31x
y = 3.47 + 0.79x
Σxy−ΣxΣy
b=
n Σx 2−( Σx )2
10 (494)−(55)(78)
b=
10(385)−3,025
4,940−4,290
b=
3,850−3,025
650
b= =0.79
825

Σy−bΣx
a=
n
78−(0.75)(55)
a=
10
 78−41.25
a=
8
36.75
a= =3.68
10

2. With Time Period as the independent variable, the carpet sales forecast for Month 11 is:  *
2 points
7,400 yards
12,160 yards
24,310 yards
38,960 yards
y=a+bx
y=3.47 +0.79(11)
y=3.47 +8.69=12.16∗1,000
3. With Monthly Construction Permits as the independent variable, the equation of the
regression line is: *
2 points
y = 0.31 + 1.20x
y = 0.79 + 3.47x
y = 1.20 + 0.31x
y = 3.47 + 0.79x
Σxy−ΣxΣy
b=
n Σx 2−( Σx )2
10 (1,958)−(212)(78)
b=
10(5,472)−44,944
19,580−16,536
b=
54,720−44,944
3,044
b= =0.31
9,776

Σy−bΣx
a=
n
78−(0.31)(212)
a=
10
 78−65.72
a=
8
12.28
a= =1.23
10

4. With Monthly Construction Permits as the independent variable, the carpet sales forecast if
20 construction permits for new homes are filed is: *
2 points
7,400 yards
12,160 yards
24,310 yards
38,960 yards
y=a+bx
y=1.20+ 0.31(20)
y=1.20+ 6.2=7.4∗1,000=7,4000

5. Using correlation coefficient as the criterion, the better forecasting model is:  *
2 points
The one with Time Period as the independent variable
The one with Monthly Construction Permits as the independent variable
Monthly permits:
n Σxy−ΣxΣy
r=
√[n Σx −( Σx )2 ][n Σ y 2−( Σy )2 ]
2

10(1,958)−(212)(78)
r=
√[10(5,472)−44,944][10(760)−6,084 ]
19,580−16,536
r=
√[54,720−44,944] [7,600−6,084]
3,044
r=
√(9,776)(1,516)
2,900
r= =0.75
3,849.73

Time period
 n Σxy−ΣxΣy
r=
√[n Σx −( Σx )2 ][n Σ y 2−( Σy )2 ]
2

10(494)−(55)(78)
r=
√[10(385)−3,025][10 (760)−6,084]
4,940−4,290
r=
√[3,850−3,025 ][7,600−6,084 ]
3,044
r=
√(825)(1,516)
2,900
r= =2.59
1,118.35
LOAD-DISTANCE METHOD
A bank recently finished construction of a new building in the downtown business district. You
have been asked to help them arrange the various departments of its check proc
essing division to minimize the workflow (Summation LxD) in its operations. The movement
of checks between departments is shown in the table below. Department 4 (the check
distribution department) must be in the room with the elevator. Only lateral movement is
allowed (no diagonal movement allowed) from the center of one department to the center of
the destination department. Each department is 50 feet x 50 feet.

Potential Layouts
 A B C D
From/To Load # Distan Load * Distan Load * Distan Load * Distan Load *
Checks ce, Distan ce, Distan ce, Distan ce, Distan
Feet ce Feet ce Feet ce Feet ce
1-5 10 50 50 500 50 500 100
1-8 50 50 50 2,500 50 2,500 150
2-3 40 50 50 2,000 50 2,000 50
2-6 20 50 50 1,000 50 1,000 100
2-7 50 150 50 2,500 50 2,500 150
3-5 60 150 50 3,000 50 3,000 100
4-6 30 50 50 1,500 50 1,500 100
4-7 10 50 50 500 50 500 150
5-7 250 50 50 12,500 50 12,500 100
7-8 12 150 50 600 50 600 50
TOTAL 26,600 26,600

1. Which of the potential layouts shown above should be recommended to the bank
management? *
5 points
Layout A
Layout B
Layout C
Layout D
None of the above
2. What is the Summation LxD of the recommended layout? *
5 points
10,640 feet
15,960 feet
26,600 feet
38,800 feet
None of the above
LINE BALANCING
The Black Hawk Company is a new drone manufacturer. The company is to produce 240 units
in an 8-hour shift and can assign four people to its production line. The precedence
relationships of the tasks involved as well as their respective task times (in SECONDS) are
shown in the diagram below.

1. What is the cycle time? *

2 points
1.92 seconds per unit
30 units per hour
60 minutes per unit
120 seconds per unit

Operatingtime 28,800 seconds

CT = = =120 seconds /unit
Output capacity 240 units
2. What is the theoretical minimum number of workstations? *
2 points
3 workstations
3.5 workstations
3.83 workstations
4 workstations
5 workstations
Σ Tt 460 seconds
N min =
❑ = =3.83 ≅ 4 WS
CT 120 seconds /unit
3. Which of the following statements is FALSE? *
2 points
Tasks A, B, and C can be started as soon as possible.
All of the tasks A, B and C should be finished first before task F can be started.
All of the tasks A through H should be finished first before task I can be started.
All of the tasks B, E, C and F should be finished first before task H can be started.
4. There's only one best layout for this line balancing problem. *
2 points
True
False
Potential Layouts

5. Which of the potential layouts shown above should be recommended? *

5 points
Layout A
Layout B
Layout C
Layout D
None of the above
6. What is the efficiency of the production line? *
2 points
76.67%
85%
95.83%
100%
Cannot be determined
N min 3.83
Efficiency= = =95.83 %
N actual 4 WS