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UTP Lecture-16 Text Part Sourv

This document summarizes key concepts from a lecture on urban transport planning and modal split analysis. [1] It discusses how the choice-abstract theory models people's perceptions of transportation options in terms of attributes. [2] It explains how trip-related variables and travelers' economic characteristics can be incorporated into utility functions. [3] The document provides an example of applying the logit model to estimate the market share and revenues for different transportation modes.

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Shivangi Mishra
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40 views18 pages

UTP Lecture-16 Text Part Sourv

This document summarizes key concepts from a lecture on urban transport planning and modal split analysis. [1] It discusses how the choice-abstract theory models people's perceptions of transportation options in terms of attributes. [2] It explains how trip-related variables and travelers' economic characteristics can be incorporated into utility functions. [3] The document provides an example of applying the logit model to estimate the market share and revenues for different transportation modes.

Uploaded by

Shivangi Mishra
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Lecture-16

Urban Transport Planning


Modal Split Analysis
Part-4

A. K. Singh
Recapitulation of Lecture 15

What is the hypothesis behind the


Choice-Abstract theory ?

The choice-abstract theory is based on


the hypothesis that when making choices,
people perceive goods and services
indirectly in terms of their attributes, each
of which is weighted identically across choices.
How are the constant terms in the utility
functions, which are meant to capture the
effect of variables that are not explicitly
included in the model, weighted across modes
in attribute specific approach ?

This is done by utilizing any of the modes in the


choice set as the base mode.
How to incorporate trip related attributes,
that changes the utility of modes, in
attribute-specific utility functions ?

By Dummy or Binary-variable technique.

How to incorporate the variables reflecting


the economic characteristics of travellers in
utility functions ?

By representing travel cost as percentage of


the income of travellers.
Hence, the utility that a traveler in zone i
receives when choosing alternative j can
be written as,
Why utility/disutility of a travel mode
needs to be treated as a random
quantity ?

Because, the level of utility (Service)


of a mode of travel, as perceived by
travellers, varies significantly between
individuals based on their personal
characteristics.
It has been found, based on extensive
research, and considerations of simplicity in
analysis and possibility of getting closed-form
solution, that the Gumbel or Double
Exponential distribution will be suited for
fitting the random utility term . .
A mode Choice situation involving two
modes (1 &2), wherein 40 % of travellers
make use of mode 1 can be
mathematically represented as follows.
Where,
p(j) is the probability of choice of alternative j
m is the number of alternative modes including j

The above is known as the Logit Model of mode


choice.
Example1: Application of the Logit Model

A calibration study resulted in the following


utility function:
The zonal trip interchange in the target-year is
5,000 person-trips per day. During the target
year, trip-makers will have a choice between
motorised two-wheeler (M) and city bus (B).

The target-year service attributes of the two


competing modes have been estimated to be
as follows :
Assuming that the calibrated mode-specific
constants are 0.00 for the motorised two-wheeler
(i.e., base mode) and -0.10 for the bus mode,
apply the logit model to estimate the target-year
market share of the two modes and the resulting
fare-box revenue of the bus system.
Example 2: Introduction of a New Mode
It is desired to examine the effect of introducing
a Rapid Transit (RT) system in the city of
Example 1. A related study has projected that
the service attributes of the proposed system for
the trip interchanges under consideration will be

Based on professional experience, the mode-


specific constant for the new mode is
estimated to be -0.06.
Find the market shares of the three modes that
will result from implementing the rapid-transit
proposal and the effect on the revenues of the
public transportation authority, which operates
both the city bus and the rapid transit systems.

Solution: Assuming that the attributes of the


existing modes will not be affected by the
introduction of the new mode, the utilities of the
three alternatives will be
Questions ?

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