PMT

Mark Scheme (Results)

Summer 2012

GCE Statistics S3 (6691) Paper 1

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Summer 2012
Publications Code UA033146
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2012
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General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must mark the first
candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be rewarded for what they
have shown they can do rather than penalised for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not according to their perception
of where the grade boundaries may lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme should be used
appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded. Examiners should always
award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the answer matches the mark scheme. Examiners
should also be prepared to award zero marks if the candidate’s response is not worthy
of credit according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the principles by which
marks will be awarded and exemplification may be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the application of the mark scheme to a
candidate’s response, the team leader must be consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has replaced it with an
alternative response.

Hypothesis Tests (Final M1A1)

For an incorrect comparison (e.g. probability with z value) even with a correct statement and/or
comment award M0A0

For a correct or no comparison with more than one statement one of which is false
Award M0A0 (This is compatible with the principle above of contradictory statements being
penalised)

Apply these rules to all questions

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June 2012
6691 Statistics S3
Mark Scheme

Question Scheme Marks

Number

1 (a) X Y Rank X Rank Y d d2

62 54 3 2 1 1
56 47 4 5 -1 1
87 71 1 1 0 0
54 50 5 3 2 4 M1
65 49 2 4 -2 4 M1
15 25 6 8 -2 4
12 30 7 7 0 0
10 44 8 6 2 4
A1
∑d 2
= 18
6 ×18 M1A1
rs = 1 − = 0.7857... awrt 0.786
8(64 − 1)
(5)
H0 : ρ = 0 B1
1(b)
H0 : ρ > 0 B1
Critical region rs > 0.6429 B1
(0.7857>0.6429 sufficient evidence to) reject H 0 M1
There is evidence of agreement between the scores awarded by each manager A1ft
(5)
1(c) (A and D are now) tied ranks (for Manager Y) B1
S xy
Average rank (awarded to A and D) and use rs = B1
S xx S yy
(2)
Total 12
Notes
1(a) 1st M1 for an attempt to rank score X and score Y
2nd M1 for attempting d2 for their ranks. Must be using ranks.
1st A1 for sum of 18
3rd M1 for use of the correct formula with their ∑ d 2 . If answer is not correct an
expression is required.
2nd A1 for awrt 0.786
1(b) 1st B1 for null hypotheses in terms of ρ or ρ s
2nd B1 for alt hyp as given
3rd B1 for cv of +0.6429 (or 0.7381 if two tailed from hyp)
M1 for a correct statement relating their rs with their cv but cv must be such
that |cv|<1
A1ft for a correct contextualised comment. Must mention “scores / rankings”
and “manager”
Follow through their rs and their cv (provided it is |cv| <1
Use of “association” is A0
1(c) 1st B1 Tied ranks can be implied by 2.5, 6.5 or both 2 or 6 or description.
2nd B1 Average rank implied by 2.5 or 6.5 or description and ‘use of pmcc’.
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Question Scheme Marks

Number

2(a) Sampling frame within each species of fish in the lake impossible to obtain. B1
(1)
2(b) Quota sampling B1
(1)
2(c) Advantages:
Sample can be obtained quickly
Costs are kept to a minimum B1
Administration of survey is easy
Disadvantages:
Not possible to estimate sampling errors B1
Process not random
Surveyor may not be able to identify species of fish easily (2)
2(d)
Species Quota
Trout 1400
× 30 = 17.14
2450
Bass 600
× 30 = 7.35
2450
Pike 450
× 30 = 5.51
2450

Fish are caught from the lake until the quota of 17 trout, 7 bass and 6 pike are B1B1B1
reached.
If a fish is caught and the species quota is full, then this is ignored. B1
(4)
Total 8

Notes

2(a) ‘You can’t / it’s very difficult to number all the fish’ or equivalent

2(c) Correct answer to (b) required. Some detail required.

2(d) 1st B1 any one correct calculation seen or implied

2nd B1 all correct to at least 1 dp
3rd B1 for 17,7,6
4th B1 accept equivalent statement. Require comment on what to do with ‘extra fish’.
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Question Scheme Marks

Number

3(a) ( X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ...., X n is a random) sample of size n , for n is large, B1

2
(from a population with mean µ and variance σ ) then X is (approximately) Normal.
B1

(2)
3 (b) 1740000 B1
x= = 17400
100

σ 5000 M1, B1
x±z , = 17400 ± 1.96 ×
n 100
[16420,18380] A1A1
(5)
3(c) X : Normal (approx) by CLT, and normal needed to find CI. B1,B1
(2)

3 (d) 20000 above upper confidence limit (not just outside) B1ft
Complaint justified. dB1ft
(2)
Total 11
Notes
3(b) Recognisable z value required for method.
2nd B1 1.96 or better seen award
Final A1s accept 3sf if correct expression seen.
5/5 for [16420,18380]
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Question Scheme Marks

Number

4 H 0 :Egg yield and breed of chicken are independent (not associated)

H1 : Egg yield and breed of chicken are dependent (associated) B1

Egg Yield Low Medium High Total M1A1

Breed
Leghorn 100 × 36 100 × 84 100 × 30
= 24 = 56 = 20 100
150 150 150
Cornish 50 × 36 50 × 84 50 × 30
= 12 = 28 = 10 50
150 150 150
Total 36 84 30 150

(O − E )2 O2
O E ∑ E ∑E
M1A1
22 24 0.166667 20.2
52 56 0.285714 48.3
26 20 1.8 33.8
14 12 0.333333 16.3
32 28 0.571429 36.6
4 10 3.6 1.6

(O − E ) 2 O2
∑ E = 6.757... or ∑ E − 100 = 6.757... A1
ν = 2, χ 22 (5%) = 5.991 B1B1ft
(6.757>5.991 so sufficient evidence to) reject H 0 M1
Egg yield and breed of chicken are dependent (associated) A1
(10)
Total 10
Notes
B1 for both hypotheses. Must mention “yield” and “breed” in both but
condone ditto marks.
Use of “relationship” or “correlation” or “connection”is B0
Row Total × Col.Total
1st M1 for some use of . May be implied by a correct Ei
Grand Total
1st A1 for all expected frequencies correct
2nd M1 for at least two correct terms or correct expressions with their Ei
2nd A1 for all correct terms. May be implied by a correct answer (2 sf or better)
3rd M1 for a correct statement linking their test statistic and their cv . Must be χ 2
not normal.
4th A1 for a correct comment in context - must mention “egg yield” and “breed of
chicken” - condone “relationship” or “connection” here but not “correlation”. No
follow through e.g. “There is no evidence of a relationship between egg yield and
breed of chicken” is A0 whatever their test stat or cv.
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Question Scheme Marks

Number

5(a) H0 : µ A = µB
H1 : µ A ≠ µ B B1

± (80 − 74)
z= M1A1
100 225
+
29 26
z = ±1.7247... awrt ±1.72 A1
1.7247>1.6449 o.e. so reject H 0 dM1
There is evidence of a difference in the (mean) scores of their students. A1
(6)

5(b) (For z=1.6, test above not significant so no evidence of a difference.)

For Mr A’s claim, H 0 : µ A = µ B , H1 : µ A > µ B , and critical value is z=1.2816 B1, B1
(Both z values significant,) Mr Alan’s claim supported. B1
(3)

Total 9
Notes
5(a) 1st M1 for attempt at s.e. (condone one number wrong) and for using their s.e. in
correct formula for test statistic.
1st A1 for correct expression for se
2nd dM1 dep. on 1st M1 for a correct statement based on their normal cv and their
test statistic
3rd A1 for correct comment in context. Must mention “scores” and “students /
groups/classes” Award A0 for a one-tailed comment.

5(b) 1st B1 Alternative hyp should be clearly defined

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Question Scheme Marks

Number

6(a) 1× 16 + 2 × 20 + ... + 6 × 8 M1A1

Mean= = 2.91 **ag**
100
(2)
6(b) 2.91 B1
p= = 0.485
6
a = 100 × C36 × 0.4853 × 0.5153 = 31.17 M1A1
b = 100 × 0.4856 = 1.3(0) A1
(4)
6(c) H 0 :Binomial is a good fit
H1 : Binomial is a not a good fit B1

Number of
defective 0 or 1 2 3 4 5 or 6
items
O 22 20 23 17 18
M1
E 12.41 24.82 31.17 22.01 9.59

(O − E ) 2 (22 − 12.41) 2 (20 − 24.82) 2 (18 − 9.59) 2 M1A1

∑ E = 12.41 + 24.82 + ... + 9.59 = 18.998... awrt 19.0
ν =5-2=3 degrees of freedom B1
χ 32 (5%) = 7.815 B1ft
18.998... >7.815 so reject H 0 M1
Binomial is a not a good fit (and is not a good model for the number of defective A1
items in samples of size 6) (8)

Total 14
Notes
6(a) 1st M At least 2 correct terms on numerator and 100 for denominator.
6(b) 0.485 can be implied by at least 1 correct answer.
Accept awrt 2dp for final answers
6(c)
Clear use of Binomial and x100 required for method.
Parameters in hyps award B0
1st M1 for combining either 0 and 1 or 5 and 6 or both. Require at least 1 value in a
combined correct.
2
2nd M1 for attempting ( O − E ) or O , at least 2 correct expressions or values.
2

E E

2nd A1 for a correct comment suggesting that Binomial model is not suitable. No ft
Condone parameters here.
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Question Scheme Marks

Number

7(a) M : N(177, 25) , F : N(163,16)

E( M − F ) = 177 − 163 = 14 B1
Var( M − F ) = 25 + 16 = 41 M1A1
M − F : N(14, 41)
 −14   14 
P( M − F > 0) = P  Z >  or P  Z <  M1
 41   41 
= P( Z < 2.186...)
= 0.9854 or 0.9856 by calculator awrt 0.985 or 0.986 A1
(5)
7(b) W = M 1 + M 2 + ...M 6 + F1 + F2 + ...F4
E(W ) = 6 × 177 + 4 × 163
= 1714 B1
Var(W ) = 6 × 25 + 4 × 16 M1
= 214 A1
 1700 − 1714   1714 − 1700 
P(W < 1700) = P  Z <  or P  Z >  M1
 214   214 
= P( Z < −0.957..) awrt Z < −0.96 or Z > 0.96 A1
= 1 − 0.8315
= 0.1685 awrt 0.169 A1
(0.1693 by calculator) (6)
Total 11
Notes
Condone reversed sds for method in (b)
Accept metres: 2.14 award M1A0 in metres.
7(a)and 2nd M1s for identifying a correct probability and attempting to standardise with
(b)
their mean and sd. Require explicit sd or accept 1156 for M1A0. This can be implied
by the correct answer.
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