Scribd
Upload
338 views2 pages

12 - Practice Exercise 1.3 - Answer

The document contains two practice exercises: 1. It asks to calculate the probability that a randomly selected face shield is defective, given production rates and defect probabilities at three manufacturing sites. It also asks for the probability a defective shield came from a particular site. 2. It provides COVID risk categories and insurance claim probabilities in Bohol. It asks to calculate the probability an insurance claim was for high-risk coverage, given this information.

Uploaded by

CARL WENDELL BAYOCOT
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
338 views2 pages

12 - Practice Exercise 1.3 - Answer

The document contains two practice exercises: 1. It asks to calculate the probability that a randomly selected face shield is defective, given production rates and defect probabilities at three manufacturing sites. It also asks for the probability a defective shield came from a particular site. 2. It provides COVID risk categories and insurance claim probabilities in Bohol. It asks to calculate the probability an insurance claim was for high-risk coverage, given this information.

Uploaded by

CARL WENDELL BAYOCOT
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

Answers Practice Exercise 1.

1. The JIVE company produces face shields from three manufacturing sites (Mindanao,
Luzon, Visayas) in the Philippines producing 25, 35,and 40 percent, respectively of the
whole production. The probabilities of producing a defective face shield manufactured in
these sites are 0.02, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively.
a. If a face shield has to be manufactured, what is the probability that it is defective?
b. If a face shield that is selected at random is found to be defective, what is the
probability that it was manufactured in Visayas?

Let M be the event that a face shield is manufactured in Mindanao


Let L be the event that a face shield is manufactured in Luzon
Let V be the event that a face shield is manufactured in Visayas
Let X be the event that the manufactured face mask is defective

P(M)=0.25
P(V)=0.40
P(L)= 0.35
P(X|M)=0.02
P(X|L)=0.05
P(X|V)=0.01

a. 𝑃 (𝑋) = 𝑃 (𝑀)𝑃(𝑋|𝑀 ) + 𝑃 (𝐿)𝑃 (𝑋|𝐿) + 𝑃(𝑋 |𝑉)


= 0.25(0.02) + 0.35(0.05) + 0.40(0.01)

= 53/2000
𝑃(𝑉∩𝑋)
b. 𝑃 (𝑉|𝑋) =
𝑃(𝑋)
𝑃(𝑋∩𝑉)
= 𝑃(𝑋)
𝑃(𝑋|𝑉 )𝑃(𝑉)
= 𝑃(𝑋)
(0.01)(0.40)
= 53/2000

= 8/53

2. Bohol classifies the degree of COVID risk categorized as low, medium and high. The
probability of having a COVID positive Boholano resident is shown in the table below:
Risk Category low medium high

Probability of
having a COVID 0.25 0.02 0.025
Positive

The Philhealth life insurance on a COVID case has 80% low risk, 18% medium risk , and
2 % high risk. Suppose a life insurance of Philhealth had a claim on a covid case in Bohol
last month. Find the probability that it is high-risk insurance.

Let 𝐿 be the event that a Risk is Low.


Let 𝑀 be the event that a Risk is Medium.
Let 𝐻 be the event that a Risk is High.

Let 𝑋 be a probability that a case is COVID

P(L)= 0.80
P(M)= 0.18
P(H)= 0.02.
P(X|L)=0.25
P(X|M)=0.02
P(X|H)=0.025

𝑃(𝐻∩𝑋)
𝑃 (𝐻|𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑋)
𝑃(𝑋∩𝐻)
𝑃 (𝐻|𝑋) =
𝑃(𝑋)

𝑃(𝑋|𝐻)𝑃(𝐻) 𝑃(𝑋|𝐻)𝑃(𝐻)
𝑃(𝐻 |𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑋)
= 𝑃(𝐿)𝑃(𝑋|𝐿 )+𝑃(𝑀)𝑃(𝑋|𝑀 )+𝑃(𝐻)𝑃(𝑋|𝐻)

(0.025)(0.02)
𝑃 (𝐻 |𝑋) =
0.80(0.25)+0.18(0.02)+0.02(0.025)

𝑃 (𝐻 |𝑋) = 5/2041

You might also like