Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 20th September 2021

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM
Date Gold* Silver*
Gold 999 46333 46310
Gold 995 46147 46125 17th September 2021 46310 61131
Gold 916 42441 42420 16th September 2021 46657 62258
Gold 750 34750 34733 15th September 2021 47255 63081
Gold 585 27105 27091
14th September 2021 47017 62806
Silver 999 61063 61131
The above rates are IBJA PM Rates
* Rates are exclusive of GST as of 17th September 2021 *Rates are exclusive of GST
Gold in Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg

COMEX Futures Watch Bullion Futures DGCX

Description Contract Close Change % Chg Description Contract LTP

Gold ($/oz) 28th September 2021 1752.9
Gold($/oz) Dec 1751.40 -38.10 -2.12
Gold Quanto 24th September 2021 46006
Silver($/oz) Sep 22.34 -1.01 -4.23 Silver ($/oz) 26th November 2021 22.42

ETF Holdings as on Previous Close Gold and Silver Fix

ETF In Tons Net Change Description LTP

Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 1766.10
SPDR Gold 1,001.66 1.74
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 1755.95
iShares Silver 16,939.71 0.00 Silver London Fix($/oz) 23.01

Weekly CFTC Positions Gold Ratio

May c
Long Short Net Gold Silver Ratio 78.41
Gold 1,46,962 59,567 87,395
Silver 48,471 34,393 14,078 Gold Crude Ratio 24.34

MCX Indices
Index Close Net Change % Change
MCX iCOMDEX Bullion 13762.42 -85.02 -0.62%

Macro-Economic Indicators

Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact

20th September 7:30PM United States NAHB Housing Market Index 74 75 Low
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary

• Gold headed for a second straight weekly drop in the wake of robust U.S. retail sales that may boost the case for the Federal
Reserve to soon reduce stimulus. Treasury yields and the dollar remained higher after data Thursday showed U.S. retail sales
unexpectedly rose, curbing the appeal of non-interest-bearing precious metals. The focus now turns to the Fed’s Sept. 21-22
meeting for clues on its timing for tapering bond purchases. The central bank will probably hint that it is moving toward scaling
back monthly asset purchases and make a formal announcement in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Bullion surged to a record last year on massive stimulus measures unleashed by central banks during the pandemic, which
sparked a rush of investor money into exchange-traded funds. Gold has come under pressure in 2021 at the prospect of the
emergency measures being reined in.

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a communication challenge in the coming week as he leans toward paring back
stimulus while trying to avert speculation that such a shift presages future interest-rate increases. Fed officials are expected to
signal a start to scaling down monthly bond purchases in their policy statement at 2 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday, the
most significant among at least 15 global central bank decisions due. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see that hint being
followed by a formal announcement in November. Powell will try to convince Americans that such a stance doesn’t start the
clock on raising rates, while explaining fresh Fed forecasts where some of his colleagues predict lift-off in 2022. He’ll also face
questions from reporters about recent embarrassing 2020 stock-trading revelations involving two regional Fed presidents.

• In the coming Year of the Taper, it’s the fiscal version that will really bite. The chatter in U.S. financial markets is all about the
Federal Reserve’s yet-to-be-announced reduction of its bond purchases. That’s obscuring something important: the already-
under-way cutback of the federal government’s budgetary support -- which is likely to have a much bigger impact on economic
growth next year. The U.S. expansion looks set to slow sharply in the second half of 2022 as measures that propped up the
economy during the pandemic -- from stimulus checks for households to no-cost financing for small companies -- fade from
view. That will be the case even if President Joe Biden manages to win Congressional approval for the bulk of his $3.5 trillion
Build Back Better agenda. The spending will stretch over years, with limited impact in 2022. It will also be at least partly paid for
by tax increases that slow the economy down rather than speed it up.

• Investors may need to hunker down for a slump in U.S. stocks if President Joe Biden opts for a surprise choice and doesn’t
renominate Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Nearly 90% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Biden to keep
Powell in the job, an overwhelming number that’s risen from June, while Fed Governor Lael Brainard, a Democrat, is seen as the
likely choice by 9% of economists surveyed. Former Vice Chair Roger Ferguson was viewed as the pick by 2%. The poll of 52
economists was conducted Sept. 10-15. Market jitters are likely to follow a move that surprises investors. Nearly two-thirds of
the economists predicted a near-term rally in stocks if Powell is renominated, while more than half predicted stocks would
decline in the near term if Brainard were the pick.
Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading slightly lower today on international bourses. We expect precious metals prices on
Indian bourses to trade range-bound to lower for the day. We recommend sell on rise for intra-day trading session, as investors awaited a
Federal Reserve meeting for clues on how and when the U.S. central bank will start tapering.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
Gold – COMEX December 1680 1710 1740 1770 1800 1830
Silver – COMEX September 22.10 22.45 22.70 23.20 23.50 23.80
Gold – MCX October 45400 45550 45800 46050 46250 46500
Silver - MCX September 58000 58700 59500 60000 60750 61500
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update

Dollar index Market Summary and News

LTP/Close Change % Change • The Federal Reserve will probably hint at its meeting next week that it is moving
toward scaling back monthly asset purchases and make a formal announcement in
93.20 0.38 0.41 November, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The U.S. central bank
would most likley hold interest rates near zero through 2022 before delivering two
quarter-point increases by the end of the following year. The Federal Open Market
Bond Yield
Committee meets for two days starting Tuesday and will issue a policy statement
10 YR Bonds LTP Change at 2 p.m. Washington time Wednesday. Updated quarterly economic and rate
forecasts will be released at the same time. Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press
United States 1.3616 0.0239 conference 30 minutes later.
Europe -0.2810 0.0220
Japan 0.0540 0.0010 • The bond-buying announcement at the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting is expected with
more than half seeing the tapering starting in December. That’s earlier than the
India 6.1690 -0.0010 July survey, when a plurality expected the decision in December and four fifths
were looking for tapering to start in 2022. As well as expecting rate liftoff in 2023
as per the median projection of Fed officials in June with three more increases in
Emerging Market Currency
2024 that lift the upper bound of the federal funds rate to 1.5% by year
end. Powell will still be at the helm for that policy normalization and President Joe
Currency LTP Change
Biden will renominate him for another four-year term after his current tenure as
Brazil Real 5.2895 0.033 Fed chair expires in February according to the expectationsThe tapering debate will
South Korea Won 1175.3 3.5500 be a central question for the FOMC next week. The policy group is expected to hold
rates near zero and continue monthly purchase of $80 billion in Treasuries and $40
Russia Ruble 72.8792 0.3379 billion in . mortgage securities. Officials have pledged to maintain bond buying until
Chinese Yuan 6.4661 0.0085 the economy shows “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment as
Vietnam Dong 22769 11 it recovers from Covid-19.

Mexican Peso 20.0182 0.0782 • Another unexpected U.K. retail sales plunge in the August data adds downside risk
to the GDP outlook for the third quarter. This provides further reason for the Bank
of England to hold off ramping up the hawkish rhetoric at its September meeting.
NSE Currency Market Watch Retail sales volumes, including autos fuel, fell by 0.9% in August. That compares
with our call for a 0.8% rise and the consensus estimate for a 0.5% increase.
Currency LTP Change Moreover, sales the previous month were revised down to -2.8%. This is the first
run of four consecutive months of decline since comparable records began in
NDF 73.94 0.17 1996.The latest figures add downside risk to our expectation for GDP to increase by
USDINR 73.575 -0.0225 2.2% in 3Q. The BOE has penciled-in growth of 2.9%. A reading between 1.5% and
JPYINR 66.9275 -0.335 2% now looks more likely. The lifting of hospitality sector containment measures in
GBPINR 101.475 -0.285 July meant consumers had more opportunities to spend outside retail. That may
explain the drop in food store sales, as more people ate out in August. While
EURINR 86.7025 0.03
clothing outlets showed a 0.7% increase on the month, we had expected a bigger
USDJPY 109.89 0.46
surge in spending on personal care items as people prepared to start returning to
GBPUSD 1.3792 -0.0033 the office in September.
EURUSD 1.1786 0.0009

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
USDINR Spot 73.1500 73.2800 73.3500 73.5500 73.6800 73.8000
Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion
CurrencyTechnical
Technical
Market
Market
Update
Update

Gold Market Update

Market View

Open 46100
High 46239
Low 45853
Close 45986
Value Change -90
% Change -0.2
Spread Near-Next 0
Volume (Lots) 6346
Open Interest 9013
Change in OI (%) -2.96%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

Gold prices trading negative after a data of jobless claims, and We believe that the metals are trading supportive around 1740-50 zone
so recommending going long for a target of 1800-1810. We believe that the commodity can see support at lower levels and bounce
back. Try to buy on dips between 1740-50.
SELL GOLD OCT (MCX) AT 46050 SL 46250 TARGET 45750/45550

Silver Market Update

Market View

Open 61168
High 61672
Low 59888
Close 59992
Value Change -1085
% Change -1.78
Spread Near-Next 0
Volume (Lots) 15344
Open Interest 14177
Change in OI (%) 5.34%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

Silver prices too trading sharply downward, but the immediate support is round the corner. We are recommending going long around
22.70-60 for the target of 24.00-24.30.
SELL SILVER DEC (MCX) AT 60300 SL 61000 TARGET 59300/58700
Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View
Open 73.595
High 73.635
Low 73.48
Close 73.575
Value Change -0.0225
% Change -0.03
Spread Near-Next 0.5582
Volume 1435811
Open Interest 1532310
Change in OI (%) 0.21%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

USDINR witnessed a flat open at 73.59 followed by a bearish momentum marking the low at 73.48. The pair did retrace some of the fall
to give a flat closure in red at 73.57. On the daily chart, the pair has formed a flat red candle with a sideways indicating weakness in the
pair. USDINR has given closure below all the moving averages indicating weakness. USDINR if opens below 73.44, it will witness a bearish
momentum towards 73.38 – 73.24 and one can go short. However, an open above 73.62 will lead the pair to test the highs of 73.69 –
73.75-73.85. The daily strength indicator RSI and momentum oscillator both are above their reference line but is taking a turn for the
weakness.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
USDINR September 73.3000 73.5800 73.5000 73.7300 73.8200 73.9500
Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation E-mail

Kunal Shah Head of Research [email protected]

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]

Smit Bhayani Research Associate [email protected]

Riya Singh Currency Research Analyst [email protected]

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