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Risk Assessment

Here are the steps to estimate the chronic daily intake and risk from multiple exposure pathways to a chemical in water: 1. Estimate the chronic daily intake from each pathway (drinking, showering, swimming, inhalation) using the appropriate intake formulae 2. Sum the chronic daily intakes from each pathway to get the total CDI 3. Multiply the total CDI by the slope factor to estimate the lifetime cancer risk The key is to calculate the CDI for each relevant pathway separately before combining them into a total CDI. Make sure all parameters and units are clearly defined.

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52 views14 pages

Risk Assessment

Here are the steps to estimate the chronic daily intake and risk from multiple exposure pathways to a chemical in water: 1. Estimate the chronic daily intake from each pathway (drinking, showering, swimming, inhalation) using the appropriate intake formulae 2. Sum the chronic daily intakes from each pathway to get the total CDI 3. Multiply the total CDI by the slope factor to estimate the lifetime cancer risk The key is to calculate the CDI for each relevant pathway separately before combining them into a total CDI. Make sure all parameters and units are clearly defined.

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© © All Rights Reserved
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CVL 100: Risk Assessment

Is the chemical released by industry toxic?


• Hazard implies a probability of adverse
effects in a particular situation.
• Risk is a measure of the probability.
– Examples: Risk of tornadoes, hurricanes,
floods, droughts, landslides, forest fires &
chemicals released to environment.
Life time and Annual Risk
• The life time risk of death from all causes is
100%
• If there are 1 million deaths per year, and of
these 25000 die with cancer. Assume average
life expectancy is 65 years, ignoring age
factors
– What’s risk of dying from cancer in a life time?
– What’s annual risk?
In 2019
• Population=136,00,00,000
• Deaths=10,00,000
• Deaths due to cancer=1,000
1000
• Lifetime Risk of dying due to cancer= =1e-4
1000000
1𝑒−4
• Annual risk (If life expectancy is 70 years)=
70
Risk Assessment

Hazard Dose-response
Identification Assessment

Risk Characterization
Exposure
Assessment
Steps
• Step 1: Hazard Identification
• Step 2: Dose- response assessment
– If an adverse risk is present what is the relationship
between the dose of an agent received by a receptor
(organism or ecosystem) and the incidence of an
adverse effect on that receptor
• Dose is the mass of chemical received by the exposed
individual
• Receptor is the organism receiving the dose
– Most of the dose- response assessments are done on
animals.
• Is there any problem with this procedure?
Dose-response curve

NOAEL = No Observed Adverse Effect Level SF=Slope of the dose-response curve

100%
Compound A Compound B
80%
Response

60%

40%

LD50 LD50
20% NOAEL

0%
0 1 10 100 1000 10000

Dose ( mg/kg-body mass)

LD = Lethal Dose, LD50=Dose causing 50% mortality


• Step 3: Exposure Pathway
– Through what pathways are people exposed to a
particular chemical.

Media Pathways
Water Ingestion, dermal contact, inhalation during
shower
Sediment Ingestion, dermal contact
Air Inhalation of air borne chemicals and particulate
matter
Soil Incidental ingestion, dermal contact
Food Ingestion
Exposure Assessment Examples

Ecological
&Human Health

Ecological Risk Human Health


Risk = CDI  SF
Example1
A chemical compound ‘XX’ is in air at concentrations of 10
µg/m3 in a city. A person stays in that city for 60 years. If the
inhalation rate is 0.633 m3/h and average body weight is 78
kgs. Estimate the life-time average chronic daily intake of
chemical compound ‘XX’ .
𝐶𝐴×𝐼𝑅×𝐸𝑇×𝐸𝐹×𝐸𝐷
CDI=
𝐵𝑊×𝐴𝑇
CA=10 µg/m3
IR= Inhalation Rate= 0.633 m3/h
ET=Exposure time= 24 h/d
EF=Exposure Frequency= 365 d/y
ED=Exposure duration= 60 y
BW=Body Weight= 78 kgs
AT=Averaging time= 75*365 d
Example1
A chemical compound ‘XX’ is in air at concentrations of 10
µg/m3 in a city. A person stays in that city for 60 years. If the
inhalation rate is 0.633 m3/h and average body weight is 78
kgs. Estimate the life-time average chronic daily intake of
chemical compound ‘XX’ .
𝐶𝐴×𝐼𝑅×𝐸𝑇×𝐸𝐹×𝐸𝐷
CDI=
𝐵𝑊×𝐴𝑇
CA=10 µg/m3 10 × 0.633 × 24 × 365 × 60
𝐶𝐷𝐼 =
78 × 75 × 365
IR= Inhalation Rate=0.633 m3/h = 1.55814 µg/kg-d
=1.55814×10-3mg/kg-d
ET=Exposure time=24 h/d
EF=Exposure Frequency=365 d/y
ED=Exposure duration=60 y If SF=3×10-2kg-d/mg
Risk=CDI×SF
BW=Body Weight= 78 kgs = 1.55814×10-3mg/kg-d × 3×10-2kg-d/mg
= 4.67×10-5
AT=Averaging time=75 ×365 d
If Risk is less 10-4, then its fine according to the USEPA
Example 2
• A chemical compound exists in water distributed by a locality. This
water is main source for drinking, showering and swimming.
– Pathways
• Drinking
• Showering
• Swimming: Ingestion and dermal contact
• Inhalation
– Formulae
– Inputs with correct units
– CDIDri, CDIShow, CDISwi, CDIInh
– CDI=CDIDri +CDIShow +CDISwi+CDIInh
– Risk=CDI*SF

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