Risk Report 2021
Risk Report 2021
Foreword
by Patrick Heider, CEO riskmethods
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Executive Summary
Supply chain risk is pervasive and constant. In recent years, dealing with natural disasters, trade
wars, Brexit, economic uncertainty, cyberattacks, and political unrest became the norm for global
organizations. But today, the term “new normal” has taken on a much different meaning. The
pandemic completely dominated world events in 2020 and early 2021, and in the process, unleashed
new threats and cascading risks across the global supply chain.
Yet, while pandemic threats rose by 50 times By looking at the top supply chain threats that
in 2020, they still accounted for only 4 % of affected organizations in 2020, and comparing
total risk. This signals that despite the severity these to 2019, this report will demonstrate how
of the pandemic, procurement and supply chain quickly risk management priorities can change.
professionals cannot afford to lose sight of the We draw insights from the shifts in various types
warning signs for the 96% of other risks in the of risk throughout the past year, and apply these
market. for the future.
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riskmethods has been tracking the impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains from the very start.
In fact, our first early warnings in January 2020 allowed customers to take action, such as securing
buffer stock, before the full effects of the pandemic hit their businesses. While supply chain threats
and risks are not new, the scope, scale, and rapid pace of disruption in 2020 was unlike anything
we’ve ever seen.
During the onset of the pandemic, efforts to In fact, financial risk represented nearly half
contain the spread of the virus included: (48 %) of all risk alerts, or warnings, sent out
• quarantine measures by riskmethods in 2020.
• lockdowns
• border closures In addition, several key indicators of supplier
• production stops financial instability steadily increased during the
second half of the year, including ownership
For commerce and industry, these measures structure (46 %), and field issues, which are
resulted in: problems with a product or service, such as
• supply shortages product safety risks, also rose (46 %).
• labor shortages Force majeure warnings increased (34 %).
• sourcing challenges
• logistics limitations What enterprises can learn from such statistics
is that, compared to pre-pandemic conditions,
Further consequences included a dramatic a growing number of suppliers are facing
change in consumer behavior. These factors financial instability.
made predicting or adapting to supply and
demand even more complex. From February The risk that such suppliers will fail, and
to March, the overall number of risk alerts disappear, remains high. Enterprises urgently
increased by 55 %, and remained at a high need a proactive mitigation strategy to cover
level through April before slowly dropping any losses and resulting shortfall in supply.
during the summer months.
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The Top 10
Risk Indicators 2020 versus 2019
Risk indicators
are factors or events that
Revenue & growth outlook 1 Ownership structure contribute to a certain type
Ownership structure 2 Key employee stability of business risk.
10
Source:
Flash flood Disaster at business partner site riskmethods Risk IntelligenceTM Jan 2019-Dec 2020
© riskmethods 2021. All rights reserved.
In 2020, the top risk indicators were led by Similarly, in 2019, riskmethods’ data indicates
revenue and growth outlook (25 % of warnings that ownership structure (19 %), key employee
overall), followed by ownership structure (15 %). stability (14 %) and revenue and growth outlook
Employee stability took the third spot on the list (11%) were the leading risks affecting global
with 12 % of all warnings. Business partner fines supply chains. Again, these were followed by
(7 %) and risk and field issues (5 %) rounded out business partner fines or penalties (9 %) and
the top five. field issues (7 %).
Not surprisingly, pandemic disease outbreak As you can see, compared with 2019, the
broke into the top 10, accounting for 4 % of all majority of the top risk indicators, specifically
warnings in 2020. Disasters at location, disasters the top five lists, remained relatively stable.
at business partner sites and industrial disputes Financial health of suppliers remains a top
weighed down organizations, particularly in the risk concern. However, while the types of risks
automotive, chemicals, industrial manufacturing, remained more or less consistent, the pandemic
electronics, and consumer goods spaces – which ushered in new and worsening threats across
all rely upon large and tiered supply bases to global supply chains.
produce the parts necessary for products.
The Top 10
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When supplier financial stability risk increases, that potentially impacts the buyer,
their ability to source the goods, materials, and services they need to successfully
carry out business operations.
Financial risk indicators such as revenue and growth outlook, ownership structure,
key employee stability, and business partner fines and penalties consistently top the
list of threats affecting global supply chains. They warn of potential supplier financial
stability risk:
And of course in 2020, pandemic-disease outbreak inched its way up the list.
This indicator refers to county-level threats like emergency declarations.
Our data is based on riskmethods Risk IntelligenceTM, our real-time monitoring system that creates
warnings for risk events. Monitoring threats is critical for mastering supply chain risk. When talking about
“risk indicators” we’re referring to factors or events that contribute to a certain type of business risk.
They have the potential to disrupt supply chains, or belong to a series of events that can result in
disruption. For example, risk indicators relate to specific incidents such as bankruptcy, or product release
delays. Such incidents can indicate decreasing financial stability of a supplier.
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The riskmethods SolutionTM sends warnings to customers to alert them of potential supply chain disruption.
Source: riskmethods Risk IntelligenceTM Jan 2019-Dec 2020 © riskmethods 2021. All rights reserved.
While the top risk indicators from 2019 to 2020 While cyber risk accounted for just 1 % of total
remain consistent, the quantity of supply chain risk in 2020, throughout the year it increased by
risks increased significantly. nearly 150 %. One factor is the shift to less secure
networks as employees began working remotely,
Driven by the disruptive effects of COVID-19, opening up organizations to new vulnerabilities.
the number of potential risk events identified by
riskmethods increased 57 % compared to 2019, At the same time, it’s important to remember
representing a significant increase in the threat of that non-pandemic related risks still exist.
supply chain disruptions last year. For example, natural hazards including flash
floods made the top 10 list, while extratropical
These shifts demonstrate the major toll the storms, and tropical cyclones made the top 20
pandemic had economically and operationally on list of risk indicators. More risk for your company
supply chains. The rise in cyber risk is particularly will result in more disruption if you are not
interesting to note. prepared to respond to and mitigate risk.
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The above section analyzed the top 10 risk indicators that contributed to various business risks.
This section will discuss the broader category of business risks.
In 2020, nearly half (48 %) of all warnings focused on indicators that contribute to supplier financial
stability, followed by key employee stability (13 %) and local events (9 %). These local events include
civil unrest, terrorist acts, man-made disaster at location such as fires or explosions, and power outages.
Similarly, in 2019, the top threats to organizations were related to supplier financial stability,
(41 % of all risk) and key employee stability (14 %). Natural hazard and local event risks
followed closely, both at 10 %.
There were nearly 57 % more alerts in 2020, so some categories received many more warnings,
yet their rankings changed little.
Source: riskmethods Risk IntelligenceTM Jan 2019 – Dec 2020 © riskmethods 2021. All rights reserved.
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Financial stability of suppliers – the largest category of risk facing global supply chains – grew from 41 % of
total risk in December 2019 to nearly 52 % during the peak of the pandemic in early 2020. Financial risk
indicators ended the year at a high 45 % of total risk. This reveals the uncertain economic conditions
caused by the pandemic. A consistently high and rising level of risk warnings show that monitoring the
financial stability of suppliers is a key priority for supply chain and procurement professionals in 2021.
2. Ownership structure
5. Field issues
$ 6. Bankruptcy
7. Force majeure
Revenue & Growth Outlook Ownership Structure Patents • Rights Major Product Release Delays Field Issues Bankruptcy Force Majeure
Source: riskmethods Risk IntelligenceTM Oct 2019-Dec2020 © riskmethods 2021. All rights reserved.
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The amount and kind of risk events continued to change over time. When the coronavirus outbreak
first started to take shape in December 2019, riskmethods data showed an increase in lockdowns,
quarantines, boarder closures, and other mandates that disrupted global commerce.
By January 2020 early warning signs of financial instability and distress of suppliers began to rise,
corresponding with the first wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in Q1, and again during the second wave
in the fall. Here, we follow some key indicators and categories as they shifted throughout the year.
Compliance
When it comes to compliance risk, riskmethods saw a decrease during peak COVID-19
outbreaks, dropping from 13 % in January to 5 % in April. However, we then saw this
steadily increase to reaching its highest level of 15 % in December. This could indicate
that new suppliers were onboarded rapidly, with risk becoming apparent later.
The riskmethods SolutionTM helps you ensure compliance, both when onboarding new
suppliers and by providing continuous monitoring. The rising risk of compliance violations
underlines the need for sophisticated risk strategies just to stay up to date with regulatory
changes, particularly in industries such as healthcare, pharmaceuticals, aerospace and
defense.
Natural hazards
While the individual environmental disturbances differ from year to year, overall they
represent 5 % –10 % of all risk alerts. Flash floods made it into the top ten risk indicators.
This category includes earthquakes, volcanos, river floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires,
extratropical storms, hailstorms, storm surges, tornadoes, and tsunamis. In 2020,
riskmethods identified a 7 % increase in flash floods, a 7 % increase in tropical cyclone
events, and a 2 % increase in wildfires. The key is to monitor this risk area, as individual
events are difficult to predict, yet a single risk event has the potential to cut off entire
industry sectors from supply. It could dismantle logistics hubs, or cripple infrastructure
such as power grids from the affected region, and could affect your alternatives in the
same geography.
The changing nature of threats means you have to be up to date on risk development, and
have mitigation activities ready so you can respond quickly. Then, going from reactive to
proactive risk mitigation helps move enterprises toward greater supply chain resilience.
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70 %
COMPLIANCE
JAN 13 % • APR 5 % • DEC 15 %
60 %
PANDEMIC
50 % JAN 0 % • APR 13 % • DEC 5 %
30 %
DISASTER AT SUPPLIER SITE
JAN 3 % • APR 4 % • DEC 4 %
20 %
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When analyzing examples of major disruption with serious consequences in 2020, it becomes clear
that risk events do not happen in a vacuum. If you are aware of the warnings, you can avoid or
mitigate the impact. Three examples of impending financial health risk include ATB Motorenwerke,
Novares, and Swissport. We also look at the background to the global semiconductor shortage to
illustrate that a range of different types of risk events can cause serious disruption to supply chains
in various industries.
A six-week series of
warnings accompanies
supplier insolvency.
6 WEEKS
2019 2020
SEP OKT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
The riskmethods SolutionTM The riskmethods SolutionTM The riskmethods SolutionTM The riskmethods SolutionTM
This timeline shows risk alerts sent out The riskmethods SolutionTM The riskmethods SolutionTM
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OKT NOV DEC
DISASTER AT
BUSINESS PARTNER SITE
FIre at Dingxin Electronics in
Jiangsu, China
INDUSTRIAL DISPUTE AT
BUSINESS PARTNER SITE
Strikes at STMicroelectronics in
Crolles, France
Source: riskmethods Risk IntelligenceTM Dec 2019-Dec 2020 © riskmethods 2021. All rights reserved.
The riskmethods SolutionTM helps you understand risk patterns, along with the potential
impact of treats, so you can make better decisions and proactively begin mitigation.
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As organizations and countries continue to recover from the pandemic, riskmethods nonetheless
expects continued COVID-19 aftershocks related to economic uncertainty and financial stability.
We may see a shift in risk areas that figure prominently, arising from the changing conditions of
2020. That’s why you need relevant insights that enable you to adhere to new requirements,
such as new supply chain initiatives and stronger regulation of supply chains.
Compliance
Societies and economies are increasingly focusing on compliance risk in their
supply chains. European countries, most recently Germany and France, are set
to require companies to be more vigilant in identifying risks of human rights,
health, security or environmental violations in their supply chains. The UK is
strengthening its Modern Slavery Act’s transparency legislation. In the US, a
broad review of supply chains evaluates their resilience and ability to secure
vital goods such as medicines, hospital supplies, large-capacity batteries, critical
minerals, and semiconductors.
Geopolitical
Even before the outbreak began, increased taxes and tariffs on goods from
China, and the potential brand impact of sourcing overseas, sparked a shift
toward regional sourcing. In addition, some industries – particularly in aerospace
and defense, pharmaceuticals, as well as medical devices – are mandated to
source and produce a certain percentage of output regionally. However, with
additional suppliers comes more complexity, more possibilities for disruptions,
and more options for procurement and supply chain leaders, which makes
factoring in the total cost of risk is all the more important.
Cyber
Cyber risk is likely to move up in priority in 2021. With more employees in less
secure home environments, vulnerability of supply chain information systems
will increase. Another factor is the increasing digitalization of processes within
and between enterprises. Often, the cyber susceptibility of your suppliers
directly compromises your own security, as threat actors seek the weakest
link in the chain, then move laterally to attack your infrastructure.
Environment
As conditions stabilize, expect to see more organizations prioritize sustainability,
environmental, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) risk in 2021. Climate
change issues were rising in importance before COVID-19, but took a back seat
to the pandemic. In view of natural hazards and their potential for disruption,
including knocking out essential infrastructure, climate-change risk is set to make
a comeback in awareness.
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If there are two risk management lessons that organizations can learn from the coronavirus crisis,
it’s that risk can strike at any time and that most organizations were underprepared to handle a crisis of
this magnitude. It is critical to optimize the strategic composition of the supply chain to manage future
uncertainty and become more resilient.
This requires organizations to put greater emphasis on diversifying suppliers and achieving a total view
of risk – and overall, moving from being reactive to risk aware and prepared. A risk-aware organization
factors in the cost of risk with every decision, is equipped to stay on top of all the potential threats to
the supply chain, and remains positioned to quickly enact contingency plans when crisis strikes.
For crisis recovery and supply chain continuity, riskmethods has built an effective response framework
built on four pillars as enterprises move toward greater resilience:
1. Secure supply
2. Evolve your sourcing paradigm
3. Enhance supply network management
4. Become a risk aware enterprise
Secure Supply
Ensure that your existing supply chain React to events Expand threat detection Risk preparedness through
is not impacting your ability to meet and effectiveness of comprehensive identification
customer commitments. your response & remediation planning
Source: riskmethods Achieving Supply Chain Continuity© riskmethods 2021. All rights reserved.
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The COVID-19 pandemic took center stage and eclipsed all See The riskmethods
other risk events in 2020. However, other forms of risk – SolutionTM in action!
including financial health, cyber, compliance, man-made,
Speak with one of our supply chain
and natural hazards risk – remain. Not only that, many of
risk management experts to clarify
these risks influence and affect each other, like dominos your needs. Then experience a
falling. In this way, they increase the overall risk exposure. live customized demo of
The riskmethods SolutionTM.
You could say that many, perhaps most of, the other risks Get answers to any questions
have been triggered by or are an aftereffect of the pandemic. you may have, and find out why
If there were no shutdowns, there would not be production riskmethods is the right choice
delays, no field issues, no strikes protesting insufficient health for your organization.
protection. These factors all belong together, as became
apparent, for example, in the global semiconductor shortage.
Such widespread disruption shows how events are connected
and do not happen in a void. Effects are felt down the line.
Attend
And while enterprises may not be able to predict the next our free webinars!
crisis, they can be prepared for it. This requires a strategic
Hear from riskmethods supply
shift in the way organizations manage risk. By watching
chain risk management experts, our
warning signs – whatever they might be – and collaborating customers, partners, and industry
with suppliers through the sub-tiers of their supply network, thought leaders. In our webinars,
organizations can react faster to mitigate disruptions, we investigate various aspects of
and be proactive in their risk management strategy, all automated SCRM, what makes it
of which serve to increase supply chain resilience. essential, and how to get started,
supported by best practice and
lessons learned on customer SCRM
journeys.
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