Risk Assessment

WHAT IS RISK?
Risk is defined as a function of probability or frequency and consequence of
a particular accident scenario:
Risk = F(s,c,f)
s = hypothetical scenario
c = estimated consequences (s)
f = estimated frequency
Risk =event consequence x event frequency
= deaths/event x event/year
= deaths/year
 Risk Analysis Methods

Hazard Consequence Frequency Risk

identification analysis estimation calculation
•Indices •Source term •Historical •Individual
method records risk
•Atmospheric
•Fault tree
•Checklist dispersion •Societal risk
•Event tree
•Safety review •Fire and •Cause •F-N curve
Explosion consequence
•What if • Risk isopleth
•Human
•Effect model
•FMEA reliability • Risk density
•HAZOP •Uncertainty
•Sensitivity
 Terms
 HAZARD - A chemical or physical condition
that has the potential for causing damage to
people property or the environment

 CONSEQUENCE – A measure of the

expected effects of an incident outcome case.

 RISK - A measure of human injury,

environmental damage or economic loss in
terms of both the incident likelihood and the
magnitude of injury, damage or loss.
 Types of Risk Analysis

Risk -Low, Moderate, High

• Qualitative

• Quantitative

Risk - Number viz.

10-5 Fatalities/year
Qualitative Risk Assessment

• Step 1 – Finding the existing hazard

• Step 2- Evaluating the adequacy of
design/existing safeguards
• Step 3 – Assign Severity – Low,
Moderate, High

• Step 4 – Assign Frequency – Chance of

Hazard to cause accidents – L-M-H

• Step 5- Assess Risk- LxL, LxM, HxH…

Qualitative Risk Analysis
Semi Quantitative Risk Analysis

HIRA Matrix
Quantitative Risk Analysis

• Identification of Hazard – Finding

hazardous areas in plant/industry
• Consequence analysis – How far the effect
can spread - at what intensity
• Frequency estimation – What is chance of
the release – historical evidence
• Risk calculation – Combining Consequence
and Frequency
Fundamentals

Hazard
A chemical or physical condition that has potential for
causing damage (tank containing 750 te NH3).
Consequence
A measure of expected effects of incident outcome (NH3
cloud from a 7 kg/s leak under F 2 condition traveling in
northerly direction will affect 35 people).
Frequency
Number of occurrences of an event per unit of time.
(frequency of a hole in a pipe line to cause 7 kg/s
NH3 leak is 1x10-3 per year).
RISK ANALYSIS
• Define the event sequences and potential incidents.
• Evaluate the incident outcomes (consequences).
• Estimate the potential incident frequencies.
• Estimate the incident impacts on people, property
and environment.
• Estimate the risk.
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment techniques

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) –

R = FC
R = Risk (loss or injury per year),
F = Frequency (event per year), and
C = Consequence (loss or injury per event)
Consequence assessment
• The consequence assessment is used to estimate:
• The extent or distance to which casualties or damage may occur as a
consequence of an accident;
• The conditional probability of loss of life or damage as a consequence of an
accident;
Risk acceptance
• For society’s acceptance the following factors play a role:
• Risk aversion
• “Cost/benefit” and ALARA principle
• The source of the risk: fatality risk in apartments is a factor 150 less
acceptable than in traffic (Swedish study)
• Existing risk criteria are founded on comparison with general fatality risk
(ca. 10-4 per year for young people) and the costs, society is willing to pay
for saving a human life
 TYPES OF RISK
• Risks are generally two types - Societal risk, Individual
risk

• Societal risk- a measure of risk to the group of people . it

is most often expressed in terms of distribution of multi
casuality events.

• Individual risk-the risk to a Person in the vicinity of a

hazard.
Acceptance criteria
• For consequence-based method:
• Highest likelihood of scenarios that cause
significant consequences, typically between 10-
7 and 10-9 per year

• Scheme for the number of safety barriers

depending on likelihood and severity (force
scenario in the green or yellow part of the risk
matrix)
• For risk-based method:
• Individuel Risk between 10-5 and 10-6 per year
• Criterion for societal risk, e.g. Netherlands: F <
10-3/N2
QRA - Probability assessment of scenarios
• Loss of Containment events (each of them happening with a certain likelihood)
are developed into event trees (scenarios)
• Event trees identify the conditional probability of important conditions (ignition,
wind direction)
• For each scenario, consequences are quantified (e.g. fatality rate foot print of a
toxic cloud, i.e. probability of fatality at a position (x,y) for that scenario)
• For every point on the map (x,y), sum the contribution of all the scenarios to the
risk at that point.
 LOSS OF CONTAINMENT

• Abnormal mode is termed as deviation.

• If the deviation is allowed to continue the operating mode
transitions from an abnormal situation – which may be able to
be corrected and brought back under control – to an Emergency
situation.
• In the anatomy of an incident, the beginning of an Emergency
situation is termed the loss of containment.
• The loss of containment event is the point of time in an incident
sequence when an irreversible physical event occurs that has
the potential for loss and harm impact.
Consequence Outcome

• NH3 from a 7 kg/s leak under F 2 condition

traveling in northerly direction will affect 35
people.

29/06/2021 23 NSC
 Incidents Incident Outcome Incident scenarios
5 m/s wind, Stability class D

Toxic vapour

2 m/s wind, Stability class F

70 kg/min
release of
HCN from a Jet fire
reactor vent
Tank full
BLEVE
Tank half full
Unconfined vapour cloud explosion
Steps Consequence Analysis

Selection of Scenario

Source Model

Flash & Evaporation Models

Dispersion Model

Fire & Explosion Model

Effect Model
Applicability of Consequence Analysis

Model Applicability
Source Estimating discharge rates, total quantity
released etc.

Flash and Calculating the rate at which the material

Evaporation becomes air borne

Dispersion Downwind concentration of the airborne

quantity

Fire and Thermal radiation and explosion

Explosion overpressures

Effect Thermal radiation, overpressure and toxic

concentration results into effects on people
and structures.
Selection of Scenario

Loss of containment due to any event

which can be hazardous properties like
toxic, flammable, or both.

Types of Scenarios are as follows :

 Rupture of vessel
 Hole in Vessel / Pipeline
 Rupture or break-up of pipeline
 Run away reaction, etc.
 Selection of a Release Incident
(Rupture or break in pipeline, hole in a tank or pipeline)
Selection of Source Model to Describe Release Incident
(Total quantity released, release duration, release rate, phase)

Selection of Dispersion Model

(Positively buoyant, neutrally buoyant, negatively buoyant)

Flammable and / or Toxic

Selection of Fire and Selection of Effect
Explosion Model Model

Mitigation Factors
Risk calculation
Consequence Analysis Models
Discharge
Source Models
Flash and Evaporation
Dispersion

Pool Fire and Jet Fire

Flash Fire & Vapor Cloud Explosion
Fire and Explosion Models Confined Explosion
Physical Explosion
BLEVE and Fire Ball

Thermal effects
Effect Models Explosion effects
Toxic gas effects
Models for Calculations
Gas
Outflow Liquid
Two phase
Jet dispersion
After outflow Flash evaporation
Adiabatic expansion
Spreading liquid pool evaporation
Neutrally buoyant cloud
Atmospheric dispersion Positively buoyant cloud
Negatively buoyant cloud
Jet
Fire Pool
Flash fire
Fireballs
Explosion Physical energy
Chemical energy

Toxic Release Liquid release

30
Vapour cloud of toxic gas
 Release

Gas Liquid, liquefied gas

Gas Flash
vents Pool
evaporation evaporation
Jet fire Vapour
Pool fire Vapour plume
cloud
downwind
Vapour Flash fire Toxic
cloud Vapour cloud, Flash
dispersion explosion Fire
explosion
Toxic
dispersion
Pool fire
Frequency estimation

• Frequency of a hole in a pipe line to cause

7 kg/s NH3 leak is

1x10-3 per year.

 Source Model

P
P Pa

h
ρ Release Rate
Qty Released

Diameter of Pool

Model describes material discharge from the leak

 Source Model P

h Pa
ρ Release Rate
Qty Released

Output Required Input to be Given

A = Discharge hole Area, m2

h = Height of liquid above hole,(m)
•Release Rate (Kg/s) ρ = Liquid density, Kg/m3
P = Liquid storage pressure, N/m2
•Total quantity released Pa = Downstream pressure, N/m2
(Kg) k = Heat capacity ratio, unitless
Cd = Discharge coefficient, unitless

m=ƒ(Cd, A, ρ, P, Pa, h, k)
 Source Model

 Discharge Area, A : mass flow rate is directly proportional to discharge

area.
 Height of liquid, h: Height of liquid above the hole is more then flow
rate will be more & quantity of the released material will be more.
 Liquid density, ρ: mass flow rate is inversely proportional to density.
 Storage Pressure, P & Downstream pressure, Pa : mass flow rate
is directly proportional to pressure difference (P-Pa).
Flash & Evaporation Model

T
P Tb
Fv

Diameter of Pool

Model estimate total vapor rate to form a cloud

 Flash & Evaporation Model
T
Tb
T Fv

Output Required Input to be Given

T = Vessel liquid temperature °K

Tb = Boiling point of the liquid °K
•Flash Fraction,Fv Cp = Heat capacity of liquid, Joules
(Amt of material hfg = Heat of vaporization KJ/Kg
converted into vap out of Psat = Vapor pressure of liquid,
total quantity released) N/m2
kg = Mass transfer coefficient, m/s

Fv=ƒ(Cp, T, Tb, hfg, Psat, kg)

Flash & Evaporation Model
 Heat Capacity, CP - Specific Heat : Amount of heat
required to raise the temperature of one gram of mass by
one degree Celsius.
For ex. : Water > Alcohol
 Heat of vaporization of liquid, hfg - Latent Heat :
Amount of heat required to convert a unit mass of liquid
into vapor at its boiling point.
For ex. : Water > Methanol or Ammonia
 Vapor pressure of liquid, Psat : Pressure of the vapor
present at equilibrium with its liquid.
Liquid

 Mass transfer coefficient ,m/s : which depends on

the reference mass transfer coefficient and 1/3 ratio of
reference molecular weight to material molecular weight.
 Dispersion Model
Parameters affecting dispersion
1. Atmospheric stability – turbulence
Types of stability class – A, B, C, D, E, F
 Dispersion Model

2. Wind speed
3. Local terrain effects – Highly urban /hills 3-10

mechanical mixing of air

Sea- 0.001
Cultivated land 0.3
Urban 1-3

Flat land 0.1

Dispersion Model
4. Height of the release above the ground
5. Release geometry
6. Momentum of the material released

7. Buoyancy of the
material released -
density
 Fire Model

Angle

Diameter of Pool Distance

Fire Model converts Source Model into Energy Hazard model

 Fire Model

Output Required Input to be Given

Hc =Heat of combustion (KJ/kg)

Hv =Heat of vaporization (KJ/kg)
Cp = Heat capacity, Joules
Dmax = Diameter of Pool (m)
•Heat Flux Q (KW/m2)
τ = Transmissivity, unitless
ε = Emissivity, unitless
Fp =View factor (m)

Q = f(Hc, Hv, Cp, Dmax, τ, ε, Fp )

 Fire Model
 Heat of combustion, Hc : Amount of heat released per
unit mass of a substance when the substance is completely burned.
 Transmissivity : Fraction of radiation energy transmitted from
object to target through the atmosphere.
Depends on : 1. Distance
2. Atmospheric Temp.
3. Humidity
 Emissivity : It is the ratio of energy radiated by a particular
material to energy radiated by a black body at the same temp.
 View factor : Estimation of received flux at distance far from the
flame.
 Explosion Model

Output Required Input to be Given

ta = Arrival time (Sec)

Overpressure Impulse td = Duration time (Sec)
(ip ) P = Overpressure (Kpa)

Impulse means damage-causing ability of the blast on structure

ip = f(P, td, ta)
Effect Model
P

Model describes effect of dispersion

or energy hazard on people and
structures
 Pr=a+b lnV
•Where Pr = Probit is a Number to be derived from
Equation
•V is a measure of causative factor which harms the
vulnerable resource.
•The causative factor V:
• for fire is thermal intensity and time,
• for explosion is overpressure and
• for toxic gas release is concentration and time.
The constants a and b are calculated from the experimental
data.
Qualitative analysis – results: safety distance
Results of QRA:
Individual Risk and Societal Risk

10-6
1.E-03
10-7
Frequency (per year)

1.E-04
10-8
1.E-05

1.E-06
1.E-07

1.E-08

1.E-09
1 10 100 1000 10000
Expected Fatalities
 1
Risk
Assessment
Type of Risk

Remarks/
Risk Additional
Work Type of Existing Control
Injury Ill- Damage Rati Control
Activity Hazard Measures
Health to ng Measures
Needed
Sever Proba
FA MT Fat Min Seri Ass Mat ity bility
C C al or ous ets erial

Coating drum Fall from On the Job Develop a safer

online height Training,PPE cleaning
cleaning Injury to (Gloves), procedure (Hot
person Nonskid Platform water spray for
longer period or
* M M 3 other suitable
mechanism

FAC = First-aid case; MTC = Medical treatment case; H = High; M = Medium; L = Low
 2
Risk
Assessmen
t
Type of Risk

Risk Remarks/
Work Type of Existing Control
Injury Ill- Damage Rati Additional Control
Activity Hazard Measures
Health to ng Measures Needed

Sever Proba
Mat ity bility
FA MT Fat Min Seri Ass
eria
C C al or ous ets
l

Provide proper
Inspection guarding to the belt
work &
Abrasion,
cleaning of
Hand LOTO
Inspection
belt & roller
entrap, * M M 3
Cut injury
after shaker
pan

FAC = First-aid case; MTC = Medical treatment case; H = High; M = Medium; L = Low
 3
Risk
Type of Risk Assess
ment Remarks/
Ris
Additional
Work Type of Existing Control Injury Ill-Health Damage k
Se Control
Activity Hazard Measures to Pro Rat
ve Measures
bab ing
Mi Mat rit Needed
FA MT Fa Seri Ass ility
no eria y
C C tal ous ets
r l
Cooker Burn injury, LOTO, Work Apply LOTO to
internal Suffocation, permit,PPE(safet steam line as
maintena Back y goggle, well as air line
nce pain,Body Handgloves),Trai of control
cramp ning, valve,Open all
Platform with exhaust valves
railing,Emergenc before
y switch),Plant entry,Allow only
safety one person at a
audit,Confined time inside,One
space entry
permit,O2
* M M 3
attendant must
be kept outside
monitoring as a
attendant.Provid
e sufficient
lighting
arrangement.All
ow cooker to
cool before
entry of person

FAC = First-aid case; MTC = Medical treatment case; H = High; M = Medium; L = Low
 TYPES OF RISK
• Risks are generally two types - Societal risk, Individual
risk

• Societal risk- a measure of risk to the group of people . it

is most often expressed in terms of distribution of multi
casuality events.

• Individual risk-the risk to a Person in the vicinity of a

hazard.
RISKS
SL NATIONS RISK LEVEL
1 RISK LEVEL IN INDUSTRIAL 50X 10-6/YR
FACILITY IN USA
2 HSE UK EXISTING 1X10-4/YR
HAZARDOUS INDUSTRY
3 HSE UK NUCLEAR POWER 1X10-5/YR
NEW INDUSTRY
4 HONG KONG GOVT NEW 1X10-5/YR
PLANT
Heat radiation levels of interest
• 4 kW/sq m: Causes pain if unable to reach cover
within 20 sec.
• 4.7 kW/sq m: Accepted value to represent injury
• 10 kW/sq m: Second degree burn after 25 sec
• 12.5 kW/sq m: Minimum energy required for
melting of plastic
• 25 kw/sq m: Minimum energy required to ignite
wood
• 37.5 kW/sq m:- Sufficient to cause damage to the
equipment
• 125 KJ/m2 - causing 1st degree burn
• 250 KJ/m2 - causing 2nd degree burn
• 375 KJ/m2 - causing 3rd degree burn
Overpressure of interest
• 1.7 bar: Bursting of lung
• 0.3 bar: Major damage to plant equipment
structure
• 0.2 bar: Minor damage to steel frames
• 0.1 bar: Repairable damage to plant equipment &
structure
• 0.30 barg Unrepairable building damage
• 0.07 bar: Shattering of glass
• 0.01 bar: Crack in glass
Complete Set of Causes for LOCs
Generic causes of LOCs
cover all failure causes not considered explicitly, like corrosion,
construction errors, welding failures and blocking of tank vents
External-impact causes of LOCs
are considered explicitly for transport units. For stationary installations
and pipelines they are assumed to be either already included in the
generic LOCs or should be included by adding an extra frequency
LOCs caused by loading and unloading
cover the transhipment of material from transport units to stationary
installations and vice versa
Specific causes of LOCs
cover the causes specific to the process conditions, process design,
materials and plant layout. Examples are runaway reactions and domino
effects
 Frequencies of LOCs for Stationary
Vessels

Continuous, Continuous,
Installation Instantaneous
10 min 10 mm
Pressure vessel 5  10-7 y-1 5  10-7 y-1 1  10-5 y-1

Process vessel 5  10-6 y-1 5  10-6 y-1 1  10-4 y-1

Reactor vessel 5  10-6 y-1 5  10-6 y-1 1  10-4 y-1

 Frequencies of LOCs for Atmospheric
Tanks
Installation 1a. Instant. 1b. Instant. 2a. Contin. 2b. Contin. 3a. Contin. 3b. Contin.
(Tank) release to release to 10 min to 10 min to 10 mm to 10 mm to
atmosphere secondary atmosphere secondary atmosphere secondary
container container container
Single
5  10-6 y-1 5  10-6 y-1 1  10-4 y-1
containment
With a
protective 5  10-7 y-1 5  10-7 y-1 5  10-7 y-1 5  10-7 y-1 1  10-4 y-1
outer shell
Double
1.2510-8y-1 5  10-8y-1 1.2510-8y-1 5  10-8y-1 1  10-4y-1
containment
Full
1  10-8y-1
containment
Membrane see note
In-ground 1  10-8y-1
Mounded 1  10-8y-1

The failure frequency of a membrane tank, determined

by the strength of the secondary container, should be
estimated case by case using the data on the other
types of atmospheric tanks
THANK YOU