21-61 - IR - Upper Hunter Futures Report - For Release 6 August 2021

Upper Hunter futures – final report
Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR
Roadmap for economic diversification

in the Upper Hunter
Department of Regional NSW
December 2020
1
Contents
Glossary i
Executive summary ii

1 Introduction 12
1.1 Purpose and scope 12

1.2 Report structure 13
1.3 The Upper Hunter region 14
1.4 Our approach 15
Part 1: Economic, social and land use context 16
2 The Upper Hunter regional economy 17
2.1 Concentrated but changing industry base 17

Concentrated within local regions, more diverse across the region 18
Impact of recent trends 19
2.2 Self-contained employment and supply chains 20
Local workers are typically Hunter residents 20
Industrial clusters create hubs in regional supply chains 21
2.3 Strong regional enablers 23
Functional economic linkages across the region 23
Supported by research linkages and collaborations 24
Existing governance framework 25
State and national policy alignment 26
3 Local demographics and social trends 28
3.1 Trends in population 28

Current trends 28
Age profile 29
Population projections 30
3.2 Labour force tailored to current economy 31
Employment, unemployment and participation 31
Occupation, skills and education 33
3.3 Community vibrancy 34
Young people 35
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population 38
Lone parent families 42
3.4 A relatively advantaged region, with pockets of disadvantage 47
4 Land use planning 48
4.1 Current land use across the Upper Hunter 48

Agriculture and equine 48
Coal mining 50
Buffer lands 52
Energy 55
Water security 57
4.2 Land use conflicts 58

4.3 Planning frameworks and documents 59
State and regional documents and strategies 59
4.4 Considerations for current and future land use 61
Part 2: Scenario analysis 62
5 Priority industries for the Upper Hunter 63

5.1 Identifying priority industries 63
Definition of priority 63
Methodological approach 63
5.2 What, why and when? 64
Coal mining 64
Agribusiness 66
Energy 69
Tourism 73
6 Developing a ‘roadmap’ for the future 74
6.1 A scenario-based approach 74

6.2 Limited change scenario 75
6.3 Transition scenario 76
6.4 Shock scenario 78
6.5 Monitoring economic trajectory 80
Part 3: Diversification roadmap 83
7 Action plan for inclusive growth 84
7.1 Theme 1: Foundations for the future 85

Action 1.1: Load test the existing governance framework 85
Action 1.2: Streamline and improve engagement and communication of
outcomes 86
7.2 Theme 2: Prepare for the unknown 86
Action 2.1. Prepare long-range climate and water outlooks for the region 86
Action 2.2: Prepare long-range demand outlook for water resources in the
region 87
Action 2.3: Prepare and update regular coal mining outlook for the region 88
7.3 Theme 3: Shape perceptions 88
Action 3.1: Review branding, marketing and promotion strategy 89
Action 3.2: Improve the quality of urban amenity 89
7.4 Theme 4: Improve skills and workforce outcomes 90
Action 4.1: Develop a skills map of local industry to identify training
opportunities for residents 90
Action 4.2: Address barriers to secondary school retention and completion 91
Action 4.3: Strengthen education pathways to vocational and higher education 92
7.5 Theme 5: Build vibrant communities 92
Action 5.1: Support housing affordability and diversity 93
Action 5.2: Strengthen social networks 93
Action 5.3: Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy 94
Action 5.4: Explore opportunities for improved health and social service
provision in the region 94
7.6 Theme 6: Improve connectivity 95
Action 6.1: Investigate innovative local public transport solutions 96

Action 6.2: Prepare scoping study to identify inter-regional transport
infrastructure gaps 97
Action 6.3: Explore opportunities to improve the quality and availability of
digital connectivity 97
7.7 Theme 7: Activate innovation and enterprise 98
Action 7.1: Develop an innovation ecosystem strategy 98

Action 7.2: Support social enterprise 99
7.8 Theme 8: Leverage existing endowments 100
Action 8.1: Maximise opportunities for land use management including buffer
lands 101
Action 8.2: Explore potential use of existing electricity transmission network
infrastructure 102
8 Potential governance arrangements 103
8.1 Role of governance frameworks in community transition 103

8.2 Best practice governance principles 103
8.3 Positioning for the future 105
9 Communications plan 107
9.1 The purpose of communications 107

9.2 Steps for creating an effective communications plan 107
9.3 Indicative communications plan 109
– Stakeholder Engagement Plan 112
– Upper Hunter policies and programs 156
– State and regional policies and programs 165

Charts
Chart 2.1 : Proportion of regional employment by industry over time, place of work, 2011
and 2019 17
Chart 2.2 : Proportion of regional GVA by industry over time, 2011 and 2019 18

Chart 3.1 : Population of the Upper Hunter region by LGA, 2018-19 28
Chart 3.2 : Regional population growth, 2009 to 2019 29
Chart 3.3 : Population projections (indexed) for the Upper Hunter region by growth scenario,
2021-2041 30
Chart 3.4 : Prime working-age (25 to 54 years) population projections (indexed) for Upper
Hunter region LGAs, 2021 to 2041 (trend scenario) 31
Chart 3.5 : Labour force participation rate, annually, 2011 to 2019 32
Chart 3.6 : Unemployment in the Upper Hunter, 2018-19 32
Chart 3.7 : Median employee income ($ nominal) by region, 2011 to 2017 33
Chart 3.8 : Educational attainment among the working-age population, 2016 33
Chart 3.9 : Generational inequality existing within the Upper Hunter region 35
Chart 3.10 : Skills and education level of young people across the Upper Hunter region 36
Chart 3.11 : Education Levels of Indigenous and Non-Indigenous people across the Upper
Hunter Region 39
Chart 3.12 : Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander unemployment rate, Upper Hunter region,
2016 39
Chart 3.13 : Median total personal weekly income of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
people and non-Indigenous people across the Upper Hunter Region and NSW, 2016 40
Chart 3.14 : Age distribution of Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in the Upper
Hunter region, 2016 42
Chart 3.15 : Poverty rates by family type in NSW, 2019 43
Chart 3.16 : Employment among lone parent families (female parent), Upper Hunter region 44
Chart 4.1 : Land uses by category in the Upper Hunter region (share of total land) 58
Chart 6.1 : Indicative (FTE) employment loss estimates based on mine closures at consent
expiry or extension, as at June 2020 77
Tables
Table i : Themed opportunities for action by key domains v
Table 3.1 : IRSD Scores, 2011 and 2016 47
Table 4.1 : Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region by category and area 49
Table 4.2 : Estimated buffer land held by Upper Hunter mining companies, 2018 52
Table 4.3 : Consents of currently operating mines 53
Table 6.1 : Leading and lagging indicators to monitor the Upper Hunter region’s economic
trajectory 80
Table B.1: Upper Hunter Policies and Programs 156
Table C.1: State and regional policies and programs 165
Table C.2: State and regional documents and strategies 171
Figures
: Map of the Upper Hunter region 14
: Overview of approach to developing the Upper Hunter regional roadmap 15
: Industry share of employment by LGA in the Upper Hunter, 2019 18

: Daily live-work commuter flows between the Upper and Greater Hunter regions 21
: Economic interlinkages in the Upper Hunter region 22
: Regional infrastructure supporting activity in the Upper Hunter 24
: Network of groups supporting Hunter Regional local government authorities 25
: Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region 48
: Mining sector land use, Upper Hunter 50
: Energy sector land use, Upper Hunter 55
: AGL pumped hydro diagram 56
: Map of areas in NSW coal regions available and excluded from future coal
exploration and mining, June 2020 60
: Upper Hunter Prosperity Map 64
: Limited change scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining 75
: Transition scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining 78
: Shock scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining 79
: Action Plan Themes 84
Acknowledgements
Deloitte Australia would like to acknowledge the generous time, materials and engagement of the
numerous organisations consulted throughout this project including:
• AGL

• AI Group
• Arrowfield Stud
• Committee for the Hunter
• Compass Housing
• Department of Regional NSW
• DPIE Water
• Dungog Shire Council
• Glencore
• Hunter Business Chamber
• Hunter Joint Organisation
• Hunter Region Employment Facilitator
• Hunter Renewal
• Hunter TAFE
• Hunter Valley Aboriginal Corporation
• HunterNet
• Member for the Upper Hunter
• Muswellbrook Shire Council
• Newcastle Institute for Energy and Resources (NIER)
• NSW Minerals Council
• NSW Police (Singleton Police Station)
• RDA Hunter
• Singleton Council
• Singleton Family Support
• Training Services NSW
• University of Newcastle
• Upper Hunter Shire Council
• Wanaruah Local Aboriginal Land Council
• Wonnarua Nation
Commercial-in-confidence
Glossary
Acronym Full name
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

CAVs Connected and Automated Vehicles
CiT Communities in Transition
Cth Commonwealth
DAE Deloitte Access Economics
DER Distributed Energy Resources
DPIE Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
DRNSW Department of Regional NSW
EIS Environmental Impact Statement
FTE Full-time Equivalent
GHRWS Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy
GRP Gross Regional Product
GSP Gross State Product
GVA Gross Value Added
GW Gigawatts
ha hectare
HVERC Hunter Valley Equine Research Centre
ISRD Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage
LEP Local Environmental Plan
LGA Local Government Areas
MDT Multi-purpose Deepwater Terminal
METS Mining Equipment, Technology and Services
Mtpa Million tonnes per annum
MW Megawatts
NAPLAN National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy
NEM National Energy Market
NSW New South Wales
PV Photovoltaics
RCP Regional Connectivity Program
RDA Regional Development Australia
RDC Regional Digital Connectivity
RLE Regional Leadership Excellence
STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics
VRE Variable Renewable Energy
i
Executive summary
The Upper Hunter lies to the north-west of Newcastle and comprises the four Local Government
Areas (LGAs) of Dungog, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter Shire. The region’s
economy is focussed on coal mining, energy generation and utilities, and supported by

agribusiness as well as a range of population-serving industries such as health care, education and
retail trade.
However, the reliance on resources and energy generation, which is a strength of the Upper
Hunter region, delivering high paid jobs and high-value economic activity, also poses the greatest
challenge to the region’s future prosperity. This challenge includes the planned closure of the
Liddell (2023) and Bayswater (2035) power stations. Even more significant, however, is the
potential withdrawal of mining from the region as demand for thermal coal and other fossil fuels
for energy generation declines in the face of global and domestic climate change initiatives.
Together, these mining and energy concerns directly provide some 13,500 jobs, or 35 per cent of
the approximately 40,000 jobs in the region, supporting many residents, but also workers living in
regions across the lower Hunter and Newcastle.
Adapting, and adapting quickly, to a new future will both minimise the disruptive effects of
economic transition and ensure the future prosperity of the region’s next generations. While
history shows that transition can be challenging in the short term, it also demonstrates that longer
term benefits are to be gained. The current COVID-19 pandemic and recession is also illustrative
of the potential for positive gains, including improved productivity and workforce flexibility, from
the current crisis.
Understanding potential future pathways for the region, together with actionable planning and
preparation that can support optimised outcomes, is critical to maximising the gains from
transition. However, these pathways need to be built on a solid understanding of both current and
future strengths.
Against this background, the Department of Regional New South Wales (DRNSW) engaged Deloitte
Australia to:
• consider the current economic, land use and social landscape

• provide a robust analysis of plausible scenarios for the future
• develop a set of actions that guide a transition towards achieving economic diversification
and resilience.
Current economic, planning and social landscape

This report provides a detailed analysis of the economic, social and land use characteristics of the
Upper Hunter, bringing together a range of data sources to confirm and update our understanding
of the region. This has been key to understanding which sectors offer the greatest prospects for
economic diversification in the future, as well as potential economic, social and environmental
barriers.
The data presented in this report is expansive, but key points are summarised here.
In each of the four Upper Hunter LGAs, the employment base has become dependent on a few key
industry sectors, with the top five industries accounting for between 56 per cent and 65 per cent of
total regional employment. Central industries act as hubs within the regional supply chain, driving
activity and employment across downstream industries. Participation in the workforce is high and
unemployment low, relative to New South Wales as a whole.
The population of the Upper Hunter region was approximately 63,400 people in 2018-19,
representing 0.8 per cent of the total population across New South Wales and, like many regional
areas across Australia, has remained relatively stable over the past decade.
ii
However, there are a number of cohorts within the community that are disproportionately
susceptible to vulnerabilities, and face greater barriers when participating in the broader economy,
including young people, Indigenous Australians, the long-term unemployed, welfare recipients,
those with disability and lone parent (especially female) families.
Residents in the Upper Hunter typically have a lower level of educational attainment than the
average for New South Wales as a whole, but a larger than average share (36 per cent) of the
workforce holds a diploma or certificate; reflecting the required trade qualifications of the main
employment opportunities in the region.

Land use in the Upper Hunter region is dominated by agriculture, followed by conservation
initiatives, National Parks and coal mining – the land use of the latter being disproportionately
small compared to its contribution to Gross Regional Product (GRP). The co-existence of coal
mining with agriculture and other emerging industries such as eco-tourism is, and has historically
been, difficult to manage as each sector competes for scarce natural resources – water in
particular.
Drawing on an understanding of the Upper Hunter’s economic, social and land use landscape and
resulting competitive advantages has helped to identify current and potential industries that can
support diversification and a successful regional transition.
The industries that have the greatest potential in the region under a transition scenario, as
described below, are as follows:
Highly prospective
At risk
Modest potential
Plausible scenarios for the future

The economic future of the Upper Hunter is highly uncertain and will be determined by a number
of factors, including:
• the extent to which it can evolve and adapt, responding to global and domestic market
conditions, economic policies and geopolitical developments
• how it manages competition for land, water and environmental resources and associated
trade-offs
• how it supports industry with economic and social infrastructure
• how it supports and promotes active participation of residents in the community and
employment to achieve inclusive growth.
The region could follow a number of different pathways based on these factors. A scenario-based
approach to understanding these potential pathways is a highly effective framework when
considering this uncertainty.
To understand potential pathways and responses, three hypothetical but plausible scenarios were
developed to reflect status quo, transition and shock, as follows.
Limited change scenario – the current economic settings and industrial composition of the
region remain largely unchanged, delaying diversification and a transition away from coal mining
for the next 20 to 30 years.
iii
Transition scenario – the current economic and industrial composition of the region gradually
begins to shift and diversify, as global and domestic trends favour a ‘wind down’ of coal mining
and resources adapt to support diversification.
Shock scenario – the economic and industrial composition of the region experiences a sudden
and disruptive shift, whereby there is a sharp and permanent contraction in the coal mining sector,
with insufficient adaptation and support such that transition to a diversified economy does not
transpire.

These scenarios provide a lens for the roadmap and the formulation of a potential set of actions to
help policymakers maximise the opportunity to achieve a best-case scenario.
Action plan for inclusive growth

Drawing on data analysis, desktop research and stakeholder consultations, this report sets out an
action plan for inclusive growth in the Upper Hunter. Eight key themes have been identified as
areas that need to be addressed to optimise outcomes for all, with some variation in timing of
actions between scenarios. Under each theme, key actions are recommended to address gaps
identified. Some of these themes overlap; for example, addressing transport has the potential to
impact access to education, which in turn may address skills shortages as well as social
disadvantage. Themes and recommended actions are summarised below in Table i.
Consideration has also been given in this report to the detail of a potential governance structure,
drawing on case studies including for the Latrobe Valley in Victoria. A communications plan –
always critical to effecting change across communities – has also been developed for this report.
In summary, regional diversification in the Upper Hunter remains prospective, despite

risks and challenges. But success will be a factor of the ability of the region to monitor
changing conditions and to address gaps identified in this report through timely actions.
Deloitte Australia
iv

Table i: Themed opportunities for action by key domains
Themes Actions Priority timing Key domains Key stakeholders

by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 1 1.1 Load test the existing governance framework
L
Foundations for the future • Test the preparedness and robustness of the existing governance structure and arrangements.
The following actions are • Undertake a ‘load’ test of the capacity of the existing structure, simulating the ability of structure to
recommended to ensure the handle an increasing volume of demands of the sort that could be expected during an accelerated
existing governance structure economic transition.
lays the foundations for o draw on the recent experiences from the Latrobe Valley to design a simulation.
supporting the region through an • Measure success in terms of:
economic transition. There is
o coordination and timeliness of its decision-making
scope to improve, test and refine
o engagement with external stakeholders at various levels (communities, businesses,
the existing framework in the
individuals).
Upper Hunter to better prepare
the region for future transition in
terms of streamlining for 1.2 Streamline and improve engagement and communication of outcomes L
efficient and timely decision- • Building on Action 1.1 (above), align the existing governance structure with ‘best practice’ principles.
making so that the governance
can prepare and respond quickly • Streamline the existing structure in terms of roles and responsibilities, decision-making and
as economic change accelerates. accountability, and timeliness.
• Ensure clarity about the governance structure and arrangements among internal stakeholders.
• Improve perceptions of governance arrangements and outcomes among external stakeholders
through greater transparency and two-way engagement.
L
Leading stakeholder indicator. Priority urgency indicators: 1-2 years 3-5 years next 10-years
v


by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 2 2.1 Prepare long-range climate and water outlook for the region
L
Prepare for the unknown • Develop a detailed understanding of long-range climate and water outlooks specific to the region to
The major industries driving better inform:
growth in the Upper Hunter, o future economic development, industry planning, and branding and investment attraction
mining and agriculture, rely strategies
heavily on the availability of o land use and water planning and management
natural resources. The changing o industry planning
climate and availability of water o infrastructure investment decisions.
resources are, therefore, key
parameters that will shape the 2.2 Prepare long-range demand outlook for water resources in the region
L
future outlook for these
industries. While the Greater • Building on Action 2.1 (above), develop a detailed understanding of the long-range demand outlook
Hunter Regional Water Strategy for water resources in the region, and the ability of the future supply to meet these demands.
provides extensive research • Balance the considerations of:
using the historical climatic o changing environmental demands
record of the region, there is a o changing population demands (across the entire catchment)
limited understanding about how o changing industry demands.
the region's climate is expected
to change over the next 50-
• Help to identify and develop future investment in the most effective water infrastructure and
management solutions.
years and how this will impact
the availability of water.
2.3 Prepare and update regular coal mining outlook for the region
L
• Develop a detailed understanding of the current and future demand drivers for Upper Hunter coal in
the global market.
• Improve the understanding of indicators that distinguish cyclical and structural changes in the global
coal market.
• Establish a framework for monitoring changes in both local supply and global demand for thermal
coal to be updated on a semi-regular basis.
L
vi


by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 3 3.1 Review branding, marketing and promotion strategy
L
Shape perceptions • Building on the actions identified in Theme 1, develop a coherent and unified image for the region,
The perception of place that with the aim of attracting:
locals, businesses and potential o new, younger residents
investors may have can o tourists, both domestic and international
influence decisions to remain in o domestic and foreign investors in priority industry sectors.
the region and attract new • Develop a single unified branding, marketing and promotion strategy for the entire region clearly
businesses and investment. As identifying and articulating its value proposition:
the region moves to redefine its o ‘what’ the region is about
economic landscape, the way in o ‘why’ it is attractive
which the community defines
o ‘who’ is the target audience.
itself to attract social and
financial capital will also need to
3.2 Improve the quality of urban amenity
change. L
• In addition to Action 3.1, the Upper Hunter regional authorities should consider further investments
to improve the quality of urban amenity across the region.
• At a high-level, improvements include (some of which are already being considered):
o developing a night-time economy
o developing arts and cultural hubs and facilities
o investments in social infrastructure and the provision of community services
o investments in community and recreation facilities.
• The quality of urban amenity should align with the ‘brand’ messaging (Action 3.1) and be consistent
throughout the region.
L
vii


by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 4 4.1 Develop a skills map of local industry to identify training opportunities for residents
L
Improve skills and workforce • Develop analysis of current workforce skills profile.
outcomes • Determine how current skills can be transferred between sectors and industries.
The skills and education of • Develop a skills map to assess projected demand with the scenarios and industry age structure for
residents are mostly matched to specific sectors.
the current industry profile of
the region. As this profile shifts 4.2 Address barriers to secondary school retention and completion
and changes, retraining and L
reskilling the population will • Establish mentorships and other programs to educate and provide students with training pathways
become increasingly important. (see Action 4.3).
Additionally, for certain cohorts, • Develop a strategy to support and expand upon tailored and culturally appropriate mentorship
access to employment
programs in the region.
opportunities can be unlocked by
improving education and skills,
4.3 Strengthen education pathways to vocational and higher education
and access to transport and L
childcare services. • Establish a dedicated skills and training working group. Key activities and goals of the group should
include the:
o improvement of vocational and higher education attainment in the region
o development of the skills map proposed in Action 4.1.
L
viii


by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 5 5.1 Support housing affordability and diversity
L
Build vibrant communities • Contribute to the NSW Housing Strategy focussing on diversity, supply, affordability and resilience of
In order to build vibrant housing with representation from:
communities, social and o Aboriginal communities
environmental barriers can be o local Councils
addressed through the provision o social housing and other service providers.
of affordable, stable housing,
access to health and mental 5.2 Strengthen social networks
L
health services, strong social
capital opportunities, and social • Establish a community hub program to strengthen social networks and community cohesion.
services. • Key stakeholders including Aboriginal communities and service providers should form part of the
community hub panel.
5.3 Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy

L
• Support collaboration between service providers to build the care economy.
• Support partnerships with educational providers within early childcare, disability services and aged
care.
5.4 Explore opportunities for improved health and social service provision in the region
L
• Develop a detailed health, mental health and social services strategy to better inform:
o gaps in current services
o building the care economy
o feasibility of community hub
o mobile and telehealth services
o peer-led health promotion and community education services.
• The strategy should ensure that any models of service:
o build trust, reach and awareness in the community
o support service providers in the region
o provide infrastructure to deliver new models.
L
ix


by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 6 6.1 Investigate innovative local public transport solutions
L
Improve connectivity • A detailed feasibility should be undertaken to investigate innovative local public transport solutions:
Physical and digital o car sharing options should be examined to address transport barriers in the region
infrastructure is critical to o on-demand services and connected and automated vehicles trials are options for innovative
support the needs of industry local transport solutions.
today and tomorrow. Currently, • This action should be undertaken in collaboration with Local Councils and Transport for NSW.
as with many regions in
Australia, digital connectivity is 6.2 Prepare scoping study to identify inter-regional transport infrastructure gaps
poor and increased investment L
in road access could improve • Prepare a scoping study to specifically identify the existing inter-regional road and transport
physical connectivity. However, infrastructure gaps.
these investments require • Develop a roadmap of emerging needs and unmet demands of industry regarding connectivity with
significant capital investment major towns and cities.
and need to be assessed in a
cost benefit framework. 6.3 Explore opportunities to improve the quality and availability of digital connectivity
L
• Having digital infrastructure that can support the growing (and future) needs of industry is an
important factor in attracting and retaining investment.
• Digital solutions in the Upper Hunter include:
o working with industry to develop an understanding of how major industries in the region use
digital infrastructure in their operations and to what standard the existing infrastructure
supports these activities
o develop a process to identify the digital infrastructure needs of the Upper Hunter
o develop a business case to consider the appropriate options for a further detailed assessment
taking account of existing strategies (e.g. Regional Digital Connectivity program).
L
x


by scenario
NSW Government
industry & NFPs

Limited change
Government
Community
Australian
Transition
Economic
Business,
Land use
groups
Shock
Social
LGAs
Theme 7 7.1. Develop an innovation ecosystem strategy
L
Activate innovation and • Develop a detailed innovative ecosystem strategy to inform the formation of innovation hubs,
enterprise mentorship and grant opportunities. The strategy should explore:
In order to support the o the cultivation of start-ups, new technologies and innovation throughout the region
diversification of the region and o potential grant and mentoring programs
the development of new and o options to utilise STEM initiatives through the provision of high-quality facilities that are
emerging industries and service accessible to all local students
industries (including tourism and o the consultation of a youth advisory group to ensure hubs are youth friendly and encourage
hospitality), technological innovation.
innovation and entrepreneurship
should be fostered and 7.2 Support social enterprise
L
encouraged. Within the Upper
Hunter and other regional areas • As detailed in Action 7.1 the strategy should enable an environment that supports community
in Australia, the challenges of ownership over outcomes in the region through social enterprises.
unemployment, transitioning • Supporting the formation of social enterprises throughout the region is key to this action.
industries and ‘brain drain’ of
talent to cities exemplify the
need for innovative economic
development solutions.
Theme 8 8.1 Maximise opportunities for land use management including buffer lands
L
Leverage existing • A detailed investigation of options for alternative land use within existing buffer zones should be
endowments undertaken.
The Upper Hunter currently o the investigation should identify the potential for more productive agribusiness purposes,
has several key infrastructure industrial and commercial uses
assets that help to facilitate the o the investigation should involve key landholders including farmers, miners and state and
region’s economic activity, Commonwealth regulatory bodies
specifically in the mining, energy o this process should seek to determine the willingness of landholders for rezoning and
and agriculture sectors. As the development and consider current safety and environmental regulatory settings
mix of current uses change over o implications for increased land use on demand for water resources and the impact on local
time, it is essential that where residents and farming community should be considered
possible that land is repurposed o this process could also test the market to determine the level of demand for these lands from
or reutilised for other uses to prospective private-sector investors or developers.
support opportunities for growth
and diversification in the region 8.2. Explore potential uses of existing electricity transmission network infrastructure
L
going forward.
• A detailed technical study should be undertaken to analyse the implications associated with
connecting new generation or storage to the current transmission network.
• The study should determine potential capacity constraints on the network and if network upgrades
are required to facilitate increased load on the network.
• The study is essential to determine the investment opportunities in the region’s energy sector.
xi
1 Introduction
The Upper Hunter is a significant contributor to the New South Wales economy – worth some $9.6
billion (or 1.6 per cent) to gross state product (GSP). However, many of the factors that contribute
to the region being such an economic force are the same factors that pose the greatest challenges

to the region’s future prosperity. These challenges include the planned closure of the Liddell and
Bayswater power stations in 2023 and 2035, respectively, and the potential withdrawal of coal
mining from the region as thermal coal and other fossil fuels for energy generation are phased out
globally. Just as technology and global economies have continued to advance and evolve, so too
must the Upper Hunter. Adapting, and adapting quickly, to a new future will both minimise the
disruptive effects of economic transition and ensure the future prosperity of the region’s next
generations. Identifying the region’s future strengths is an important first step in this transition.
However, understanding potential future pathways, together with actionable planning and
preparation that can support optimised outcomes, is also essential.
A note on COVID-19
Since it first emerged in December 2019, COVID-19 has inflicted a multi-dimensional health, social
and economic crisis on the world, deeper and more complex than any recently observed. This crisis
will likely cause an acceleration of trends that in many ways, may significantly increase
productivity; yet in the short and medium run, this process will be enormously disruptive and will
exacerbate some of the worst problems in our society.
Regions such as the Upper Hunter have not escaped the social and economic impacts that have
accompanied the crisis, dealing with temporary and structural impacts simultaneously. Structural
matters that regions had been navigating pre-COVID-19 have been accelerated, alongside new
challenges as a result of the pandemic. In part, these changes are likely to persist beyond the
virus – with both positive and negative consequences.
Today, the shift towards a digital world has been intensified and accelerated by COVID-19. This
shift will displace many low productivity workers once again. Yet new jobs will also emerge as new
technologies create opportunities no one has yet anticipated. What can be reasonably anticipated,
is that the jobs of the future will require skills that many of today’s displaced workers lack. Unless
the skills imbalance is addressed, it is possible that a generation of workers and their families will
suffer hardship even as technologies ultimately lead to massive gains in living standards.
1.1 Purpose and scope

There is a growing urgency among government, industry and community stakeholders to diversify
the economic composition and depth of the Upper Hunter economy, to mitigate against expected
future economic and social disruption. Diversified growth is understood to be contingent on both
current conditions and future investments in, for example, economic and social infrastructure and
relevant skills development, together with specific industry-based policies and a responsive
planning and land use regime.
Within this context, the Department of Regional New South Wales (DRNSW) engaged Deloitte
Australia to:
• consider the current economic, planning and social landscape

• provide a robust analysis of plausible scenarios for the future
• develop a set of actions that guide a transition towards achieving economic diversification
and resilience.
The analysis was undertaken through the following lenses:

• economic analysis
• land use planning
• social planning
12
• governance
• policy alignment
• stakeholder engagement
• risk analysis
• transition strategy.
This report and its findings will inform the Department’s planning and preparations going forward,
and form an input into decision-making and other projects currently underway, including the

review of the Hunter Regional Plan currently being undertaken by the Department of Planning,
Industry and Environment (DPIE) (due 2021). The analysis undertaken by Deloitte is expected to
inform engagement and further discussion with Upper Hunter stakeholders as part of the DPIE
review and update of the roadmap for the future of the area within the forthcoming Plan. Most
importantly, this report provides DRNSW with evidenced-based recommendations to promote
economic and jobs growth within the region, while also maintaining a focus on social inclusion.
This report also sits alongside a broader suite of work occurring across the New South Wales
Government (such as the Net Zero Plan 2020-2030, NSW 2040 Economic Blueprint and the
Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW), which focus on diversification and
resilience in the face of economic disruption from a range of sources, leading to changing industry
dynamics. It is intended that the findings from this report will inform the development and
implementation of transition strategies in the Upper Hunter region in the future.
1.2 Report structure

This report is structured in three parts: the first provides context and an overview of the Upper
Hunter region’s economic structure; the second presents detailed analysis of priority industries for
the Upper Hunter; and the third undertakes forward-looking analysis for the region.
PART 1 l Economic, social PART 2 l Scenario analysis PART 3 l Diversification

and land use context roadmap
• The Upper Hunter regional • Priority industries for the • Action plan for inclusive
economy Upper Hunter growth
• Local demographics and • Developing a ‘roadmap’ for • Potential governance
social trends the future arrangements
• Land use planning • Communications plan
A key feature of this report is its consideration of future economic and social outcomes for the
region. Rather than forecast and plan for a single ‘most likely’ future, this report takes a scenario-
based approach to develop a future ‘roadmap’ and proposed set of actions based on three
diverging economic futures for the region. The selected scenarios attempt to capture the range of
potential outcomes – taking in the best case and worst case potential futures – identifying the
factors and growth drivers that will likely determine these futures and the implications for the
Upper Hunter’s current key industry sectors.
• Limited change – the current economic settings and industrial composition of the region
remain largely unchanged, delaying diversification and a transition away from coal mining for
the next 20 to 30 years.
• Transition scenario – the current economic and industrial composition of the region gradually
begins to shift and diversify, as global and domestic trends favour a ‘wind down’ of coal mining
and resources adapt to support diversification.
• Shock scenario – the economic and industrial composition of the region experiences a sudden
and disruptive shift, whereby there is a sharp and permanent contraction in the coal mining
sector, with insufficient adaptation and support such that transition to a diversified economy
does not transpire.
These scenarios provide a lens for the roadmap and the formulation of a potential set of actions to
position the Upper Hunter region to respond to any of these possible futures.
13
1.3 The Upper Hunter region

The Hunter Region encompasses ten Local Government Areas (LGAs) and the nation’s seventh
largest city, Newcastle. It is also the largest regional economy, accounting for around eight per
cent of the state’s economic activity.
The Upper Hunter, which lies to the north-west of Newcastle, comprises four LGAs, including:
• Dungog
• Singleton

• Muswellbrook
• Upper Hunter Shire.
The region is a major supplier of power, coal mining, tourism and agriculture to domestic and
international markets. Like many regions across Australia, the population living within the region
grew only slightly in 2019, and the labour force has not experienced growth since 2013.
Indeed, the region has experienced below average economic growth for a number of years due to
a combination of challenging factors, including prolonged drought and limited mining development.
Growth in the number of businesses in 2018 was nearly half that of the rest of state average, at
2.1 per cent compared to 3.8 per cent.1 Taken together, the impacts of these trends on the
community have contributed to increased socio-economic disadvantage in the Upper Hunter region
compared to the rest of the state.
: Map of the Upper Hunter region
Source: Deloitte
1
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 20 February 2020, Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and
Exits, June 2015 to June 2019, cat. no. 8165.0,
<https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/8165.0Main+Features2June%202015%20to%20June
%202019?OpenDocument>.
14
1.4 Our approach

This section outlines the approach taken by Deloitte to building an economic profile for the Upper
Hunter. This profile is then used to develop strategic recommendations to promote economic
growth and diversification in the region, and ultimately, sustainable jobs growth and greater social
inclusion. Figure 1.2 summarises the approach taken to developing an evidence base and
formulating recommendations for the region.
: Overview of approach to developing the Upper Hunter regional roadmap

STAGE 1
This stage involved developing a detailed and robust understanding of the
current economic, social and land use context of the Upper Hunter;
including the identification of key barriers and impediments to the
economic transition of the region, and opportunities for the region’s future
economic prosperity. This stage was informed by:
• Stakeholder consultation – with different councils, industry, social
services and State Government to provide on-the-ground intelligence
about roadblocks and opportunities, as well as to test that
understandings from the data and qualitative research align with local
understandings.
• Desktop research – analysing the large body of existing information and
research.
STAGE 2a
Stage 2a drew upon empirical evidence to identify regional industries
which have clear and demonstrable local advantages that align with global
demand opportunities to deliver sustainable and ongoing economic growth
and prosperity for the Upper Hunter.
This was informed by Deloitte’s Prosperity Mapping model, which built a
framework to assess the Upper Hunter region’s relative advantages and
industry opportunities, through focussing on three dimensions:
1. What does the world want?
2. What is the Upper Hunter good at?
3. What is the current sector size?
STAGE 2b
Stage 2b used a scenario-based approach to develop a future ‘roadmap’
and proposed set of actions for the region. The aim of this approach is to
broadly identify a set of possible futures from across the spectrum of
possible futures and provide an indicative understanding of what these
futures might look like.
This includes identifying the factors and growth drivers that will likely
determine these futures, and the potential implications for the Upper
Hunter’s current key industry sectors.
STAGE 3
Stage 3 brings together the findings of Stages 1 and 2 to outline a
comprehensive suite of actions that can guide the Upper Hunter regional
economy to successfully transition and recognise its full potential.
15
Upper Hunter
Upper Hunter futures
futures –
– final
final report
report
Part 1: Economic,

social and land use
context
16
2 The Upper Hunter regional

economy

The Upper Hunter region’s economy is characterised by a concentrated industry base that, despite
strategies to assist with diversification, has continued to be dominated by coal mining activities.
The needs of key industries such as mining and to a lesser extent agriculture have strongly
influenced the nature of the economy’s development, and may continue to do so as the region
diversifies.
The Upper Hunter is characterised by self-contained employment and supply chains that facilitate
functional economic interlinkages throughout the region. This is further supported and reinforced
by strong regional enablers such as highly developed regional infrastructure that allows for the
transfer of goods and services in and out of the region.
2.1 Concentrated but changing industry base

The Upper Hunter economy has become more concentrated around coal mining in recent years,
despite strategies identifying the need for diversification and increasing emerging opportunities in
agriculture, tourism and power. A lack of economic diversification presents several challenges as
well as potential risks for the region.
Mining accounted for 32 per cent of total regional employment and 57 per cent of gross value
added (GVA) in 2019. Agriculture, in contrast, is the second largest sector by employment,
accounting for 7 per cent of regional employment and 4 per cent of regional GVA. Agriculture’s
share of employment and GVA has fallen since 2011. While there was a modest increase in the
number of people working in agriculture, GVA fell due to reduced output as a result of recent
drought conditions. Employment across utilities increased, with a further 300 jobs added in the
region since 2011.
The concentration of the region’s economy means it is particularly vulnerable to changes in global
economic conditions, consumer demand, and domestic policy.
Chart 2.1: Proportion of regional employment by industry over time, place of work, 2011 and 2019
Source: Deloitte, ABS
17
Chart 2.2: Proportion of regional GVA by industry over time, 2011 and 2019

Concentrated within local regions, more diverse across the region

In each of the four Upper Hunter local government areas, the employment base has become
dependent on a few key industry sectors, exposing the region to significant employment, economic
and social downside risks if these industries were to contract or withdraw from the region. For the
entire Upper Hunter region, mining represents one third (32 per cent) of employment by industry;
with agriculture, forestry and fishing, health care and social assistance, retail trade and
construction ranking as the next highest employing industries across the region.
: Industry share of employment by LGA in the Upper Hunter, 2019
Upper Hunter Shire

Total GRP $9.6 billion
(1.6% of GSP) Dungog
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fishing
22% Agriculture,
Other
Forestry and
44%
Fishing
Total jobs: 17%
Other
41%
5,719 Health Care and
Social Total jobs: Education and
Assistance 2,467 Training
11% Population: 12%
Education 14,180
and Construction
Training Retail Trade 10%
Manufacturing
8% 9%
9%
Health Care and Social Retail Trade
Assistance 8% 9%
Population:
9,423
Population:
Muswellbrook 16,377
Population:
23,461 Singleton
Other Mining Mining
39% 35% Other 43%
35%
Total jobs:
11,632
Total jobs:
Electricity, Gas, 19,141
Water and Waste Manufacturing
Construction Services 5%
5% 8%
Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance

Retail Trade
6% 7% Construction
5%
6%
Public Administration and Safety
6%
18
Upper Hunter economies are highly concentrated relative to the rest of the state. Across New
South Wales, the largest industry by employment is health care and social assistance, at 13 per
cent, while the top five industries account for 50 per cent of all employment (noting that there are
19 industries within the standard industry structure).
By comparison, in Singleton, mining accounts for as much as 43 per cent of all jobs, while in
Muswellbrook, 35 per cent of jobs are in the mining sector. By contrast, the northern council areas
are heavily exposed to agricultural industries – agricultural employment in the Upper Hunter Shire
and Dungog council accounts for 22 per cent and 17 per cent of total jobs, respectively.

The industry specialisation in each LGA is highly concentrated – creating vulnerabilities with
cyclical and structural changes in key sectors. This means that the employment base of each
council is more dependent on fewer industries, placing jobs at risk if, and when, those industries
are affected by external factors.
Impact of recent trends

Historically, mining activity has been a key driver of economic growth and employment in the
region. In 2019, mining accounted for 57 per cent of the Upper Hunter region’s total GVA (up from
41 per cent in 2011), as well as 32 per cent of employment in the region. Between 2011 and
2019, mining employment increased by some 4,500 jobs to total 12,500 jobs.2 This growth is
almost entirely attributable to increased activity in coal mining across the region.
Outside of mining, other industry sectors driving growth between 2011 and 2019 include the
healthcare and social assistance sector – which added some 750 additional jobs, to account for 7
per cent of the region’s total employment – and the utilities sector, which added some 300
additional jobs, to account for almost 3 per cent of total employment.3
The food manufacturing sub-sector also experienced substantial employment growth, increasing its
workforce size by 54 per cent (or an additional 217 workers) between 2011 and 2016.4 The gains
in food manufacturing, however, were mostly offset by job losses in other manufacturing sub-
sectors.
By contrast, growth in agriculture has been muted. While employment in agriculture increased by
around 100 workers between 2011 and 2019, the sector’s share of regional employment and GVA
both declined over the period.5 Reductions in the number of people employed in the sheep, beef
cattle and grain farming sub-industry across the Upper Hunter dragged on the region’s agricultural
sector – which declined by 269 jobs from 2011 to 2016 (representing a 27 per cent decline).6
A significant contributor to the relative decline of agriculture in the Upper Hunter is the widespread
and severe drought recently experienced across New South Wales. Drought has reduced both the
productive output and profitability of the sector over the decade. Despite the drought having now
broken, this disruption to production supply chains and prices, land use, farm profitability, and
labour skills and retention, is expected to have scarring effects which will continue to impact on
the economic output of the sector for some time.
COVID-19
Since it first emerged in December 2019, COVID-19 has inflicted a multi-dimensional health, social
and economic crisis on the world, deeper and more complex than any recently observed. The
sectoral damage of this recession continues to change amidst the varying impacts of state,
national and international responses. For the Upper Hunter, and much of regional Australia, the
extent of the economic impact of COVID-19 will depend on both their exposure to the virus itself,
together with the policy responses implemented by the different levels of government and impacts
on key export markets.
2
Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) modelling (2020)
3
Ibid
4
ABS Census (2016)
5
DAE modelling (2020)
6
ABS Census (2016)
19
International border shutdowns have had a cascading effect across a range of sectors
including not just the airports and airlines themselves, but also in recreation (missing tourists),
education (missing students), and construction (missing migrants). In the Upper Hunter,
stakeholder consultations revealed some difficulty in accessing workers (particularly in the equine
sector) given a historical dependence on seasonal migrant labour to fill some positions.
The impact of lockdowns has put pressure on regional economies, forcing the closure of cafes
and restaurants, pubs and clubs, and hotels and motels, as well as gyms, sporting venues and
entertainment centres. This has had a deep impact on regions like the Upper Hunter, where the

retail trade and hospitality sectors play an important role in employment.
With the crisis ongoing and the full extent of the impacts not yet clear, regions like the Upper
Hunter may be able to expect a mix of cyclical and structural impacts that will be both
negative and positive. In the first instance, COVID-19 may accelerate changes in the Upper
Hunter, with adverse employment consequences as major employers in the region shift their
business operations to survival mode. For example, Peabody (operator of the Wambo mine near
Singleton) announced in August 2020 that after an eight-week partial suspension of operations
that they would “ramp down” production and reduce the size of the local workforce, citing
challenging market conditions (including declining coal prices) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.7
While the lasting effects of COVID-19 for the Upper Hunter (and the commodities market globally)
are not yet known, some of the current impacts of COVID-19 may provide a glimpse of the worst-
case structural outcome following a global shift away from mining. While the region has been
preparing for the impact of such a shift, the immediate impacts of COVID-19 may force the Upper
Hunter to respond to changes sooner than intended.
Looking ahead, the COVID-19 crisis may introduce structural changes in the economy that
could be of benefit to the Upper Hunter. COVID-19 has forced many organisations to reassess
the capacity of their workforce to work remotely. For the Upper Hunter, this could foreshadow a
flight to regional areas by workers previously constrained by location, and encouraged by lower
population density, and affordable housing. The region may also benefit from future government
interventions aimed at stimulating economic demand as the COVID-19 health crisis passes, but
also relating to ongoing issues such as disruptions to the national energy market or to trade
relations with China, for example. Positioning the region to make the most of these opportunities
will require undertaking actions that strengthen the region’s value proposition – including strong
digital infrastructure and connectivity and a clear ‘Why Upper Hunter’ message that can attract
and retain new residents.
2.2 Self-contained employment and supply chains

Employment and downstream activities are strongly linked to the dominance of a few industries in
the Upper Hunter region. This is observed by the extent to which these industries almost
exclusively draw on labour from within the region (thereby increasing the dependence of the local
labour force on these industries); as well as the extent to which the broader economy throughout
the region (i.e. downstream supply chain activity) is drawn into supporting the activities of a few
key industries.
Local workers are typically Hunter residents

Based on the information obtained from the latest Census in 2016, the majority of employed
residents in the Upper Hunter work within the region. In other words, the Upper Hunter economy
has a high level of self-contained employment – with 82 per cent of the employed population also
working locally across the Upper Hunter in 2016.8 This reflects the dominance of mining and
agriculture in the region, which typically draw on local workers.
7
Connell, C, Turton, P, 29 August 2020, Mass job losses at Hunter Valley mine as industry reacts to
plummeting thermal coal price, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, available at:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-19/hunter-valley-coal-mining-feels-the-impact-of-plunging-
price/12573370
8
Note: this analysis uses data collected in the 2016 Census. As such, there may have been changes in the
region since the time of collection that have not been included in this analysis.
20
The Upper Hunter economy is also relatively self-sufficient in terms of meeting local employment
demands locally. In 2016, approximately 70 per cent of local jobs were undertaken by workers
living locally.
Within the Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook draws heavily on workers from Singleton and the Upper
Hunter Shire, with approximately 15 per cent and 12 per cent of workers in Muswellbrook
commuting from these neighbouring LGAs, respectively.
Beyond the four Upper Hunter LGAs, the region also draws on workers from the across the broader

Hunter region. In particular, the Upper Hunter economy draws on workers living in the
neighbouring Cessnock and Maitland LGAs – for example, in 2016 9.2 per cent and 8.9 per cent of
the Upper Hunter’s workforce commuted daily from these areas, respectively. By contrast, only 11
per cent of Upper Hunter residents commuted to the broader Hunter Region for employment.
Few employed Upper Hunter residents travel beyond the broader Hunter Region for employment (7
per cent). At the same time, the Upper Hunter region does not attract many workers from outside
the broader Hunter Region.
: Daily live-work commuter flows between the Upper and Greater Hunter regions
Source: Deloitte, ABS9
Industrial clusters create hubs in regional supply chains

The presence of anchoring industries or industrial clusters often provide economic benefits such as
infrastructure, labour markets, and knowledge spillovers which are optimised by the close physical
proximity of related firms and industries.10 The depth of the Upper Hunter region’s reliance on
these dominant industries can be observed by the extent to which they act as hubs within the
regional supply chain, driving activity and employment across downstream industries. The coal
mining industry in the Upper Hunter, for example, drives a substantial amount of downstream
9
Australian Bureau Statistics, cat. no. 2730.0, Census of Population and Housing: TableBuilder Pro, Australia,
2016
10
Spencer, G, 2013, The economic impact of anchor firms and industrial clusters: an analysis of Canadian and
American manufacturing firms and clusters, University of Toronto, available at:
https://localideas.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/anchor-firms-and-clusters.pdf
21
economic activity through its consumption of inputs drawn from other industry sectors within the
Upper Hunter. Although the local coal industry sources a comparatively smaller share of its
domestic inputs from within the Upper Hunter economy, approximately 27 per cent, the
dominance of the coal industry within the Upper Hunter economy makes it the single largest
purchaser of locally produced goods and services.11
The importance of local supply chains to economic activity is stronger for the Upper Hunter’s other
major industry sectors (see Figure 2.3). Agricultural related industries source greater shares of
their total domestic inputs from within the Upper Hunter economy. For example, the sheep, grains,

beef and dairy cattle industries purchase around 35 per cent of their goods and services inputs
from other local industries, while the poultry, other livestock and other agricultural industries
purchase 45 per cent.12 However, because agriculture represents a smaller share of the Upper
Hunter economy, the local spend by the agricultural sectors in dollar value terms only represents
approximately 13 per cent of the local spend by the coal mining sector – i.e. for every $1 spent
within the Upper Hunter economy by the agricultural sector on locally sourced goods and services,
the coal mining industry spends around $7.85.
Figure 2.3 summarises the general level of economic activity which is linked to particular industries
and regions. This does not account for large capital injections or the value of wages and salaries,
rather the day-to-day expenditure profiles of key local industries into other industry sectors. A
summary of other economic interlinkages across the region and across New South Wales more
broadly is explored next in section 2.3.
: Economic interlinkages in the Upper Hunter region
Source: Deloitte Access Economics’ proprietary regional input-output model.

Note: These figures should be treated as indicative due to paucity in data relating to regional bilateral trade flows within
Australia. Proxy estimates of regional bilateral trade flows are derived using a ‘gravity model’ underpinned by ABS Census
regional employment by industry data, as well as the ABS National Accounts input-output tables. These estimates may not
account for profits that flow out of regional economies due to multi-location business ownership and operational structures.
Also, the implicit assumption in the gravity model that trade is directly related to proximity of user and supplier may not be
relevant in all cases.
11
These figures should be treated as indicative due to paucity in data relating to regional bilateral trade flows
within Australia. Proxy estimates of regional bilateral trade flows are derived using a ‘gravity model’
underpinned by ABS Census regional employment by industry data, as well as the ABS National Accounts
input-output tables. These estimates may not account for profits that flow out of regional economies due to
multi-location business ownership and operational structures. Also, the implicit assumption in the gravity
model that trade is directly related to proximity of user and supplier may not be relevant in all cases.
12
Ibid.
22
2.3 Strong regional enablers

Functional economic linkages across the region
A key strength of the Upper Hunter is its highly developed regional infrastructure and connectivity
that allows for the transfer of goods and services in and out of the region. The Port of Newcastle is
the world’s largest coal export port with concept plans for the development of a Multi-Purpose
Deepwater Terminal (MDT) at Mayfield which would eventually accommodate a diverse set of
cargo and improve the efficiency of existing supply chains. Previous work undertaken by Deloitte
Access Economics on behalf of the Port of Newcastle explored the role that the Port could play in

helping to manage the current and growing freight task for New South Wales, as well as facilitating
major economic, environmental and regional benefits to the state.13 The report noted that the
“Port of Newcastle has the potential to play an integral role in fulfilling the strategies and plans for
regional development in New South Wales, but this role is not currently recognised in many
regional planning documents”.14
Additionally, the freight movement network connects major industrial estates to the rest of New
South Wales, Australia and global markets. The Hunter has an efficient freight movement network,
with major industrial estates in the region connected on or close to national highways. Links
include:
• Hunter Expressway
• New England Highway servicing Singleton, Muswellbrook and Scone
• Golden Highway from Singleton to Dubbo
• M1 Motorway linking Newcastle and Sydney.
The rail network is also comprehensive with freight connectivity to Sydney, Brisbane, Tamworth,
Moree and the Port of Newcastle, and coal haulage facilitated by the Hunter Valley Coal Chain,
operated by Pacific National, Aurizon, One Rail Australia and Southern Shorthaul Railroad.
13
Deloitte Access Economics (2018) ‘NSW Container and Port Policy’
<https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/articles/port-newcastle-nsw-container-port-policy.html>.
14
Ibid.
23
: Regional infrastructure supporting activity in the Upper Hunter

Source: NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
Together with highways and rail, there are also several regional airports – including at Newcastle,
Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Taree and Scone. Scone Airport is a significant air link to the
Upper Hunter and includes Scone Airpark, a location for aviation businesses supplying aircraft
maintenance, manufacture, charter flights, fire-fighting, and aerial agricultural services. Upgrades
announced in 2018 will include the enhancement of existing infrastructure as well as a visitor
attraction center.
The utilities sector in the Upper Hunter is dominated by a few key power generation assets
including the Liddell and Bayswater coal fired power stations, as well as the Hunter Valley gas
turbines. According to AGL, these assets account for 4,370 MW, or around 35 per cent of the
state’s power needs. Further infrastructure exists at the mothballed Redbank power station.
Significant work has been undertaken to consider the future of the Liddell and Bayswater power
stations, particularly given the transmission infrastructure and other resources (land, water) which
are currently used on the sites.
Existing power transmission lines are an advantage for the Upper Hunter, as they provide ready
access to the grid for current and future power generation projects. A number of renewables
projects have already been proposed for the region, including the Bowmans Creek windfarm, Bells
Mountain Pumped Hydro Project, Liverpool Range Wind Farm, Maxwell Solar Farm, Kyoto Energy
Park and Liddell Battery.
Supported by research linkages and collaborations

The broader Hunter region is well supported through active partnerships and collaborations
between industry and research organisations. The focus of a number of these partnerships is in the
renewable, emerging and bio-energy sectors and equine research. The majority of research is
24
based in Newcastle, although there is scope for the broader Upper Hunter region to leverage
research opportunities. Chapter 7 of this report outlines a set of actions for inclusive growth that
provide options for the Upper Hunter to leverage new and existing linkages and collaborations to
support economic growth and development.
The Hunter Valley Equine Research Centre (HVERC), located in Scone, is Racing Australia’s primary
industry research centre to enhance productivity and decrease ‘wastage’ (the destruction of
horses) in the industry. Additionally, the Equine Genetics Research Centre, as part of the HVERC,
offers DNA testing for mutations and parentage of horses.

A key research entity in the energy sector is the Newcastle Institute for Energy and Resources, a
collaborative research institute for energy innovation. The object of the Institute is to build on the
relationship between the university and the Hunter region to advance research in clean energy
production and energy efficiency solutions.
Existing governance framework

There is a comprehensive network of organisations, working groups and bodies that support Local
Government Authorities in the Hunter region to deliver and monitor plans such as the Hunter
Regional Plan and the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan. The key groups in the
governance structure of the region and its development includes (but is not limited to):
: Network of groups supporting Hunter Regional local government authorities
Source: Deloitte
As Figure 2.5 shows, the current governance network comprehensively links the three layers of
government. At the state level, the key players in the structure involve the State Government’s
Department of Regional NSW (DRNSW) and Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
(DPIE). At the local level, the key players are the four local councils: Upper Hunter Shire Council,
Muswellbrook Shire Council, Singleton Council, and Dungog Shire Council. Although not directly
represented at a departmental or ministerial level, the Australian Government is actively involved
through Regional Development Australia (RDA).
The Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan (the Plan), prepared by the DRNSW,
established the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group to oversee, drive and report
on progress of the implementation of priorities identified in the Plan. This includes the
development of initiatives such as the UP Portal (Upper Hunter’s centralised investment attraction
25
and visitor assistance webpage), which provides resources for investors, local business and
community.
The Working Group reports to the Hunter and Central Coast Regional Leadership Executive (RLE).
The RLE is the principal governance body within the State Government's Regional Governance
Framework. They drive and support State Government priorities in each region, with membership
comprised of the most senior officer in the region from each State Government cluster. The
Working Group provides coordination and oversight, providing a platform to bring together a wide
range of relevant bodies across all levels of government, community and industry.

DRNSW also identified the Hunter Joint Organisation as a key body to deliver on priorities
identified in the Plan. Within the Hunter Joint Organisation, a sub-committee on Economic
Transition was established to work with the State Government and Local Government Authorities
to develop strategies for diversification of the region. This working group drove the creation of the
Hunter 2050 Foundation, established to support and secure new investment and employment
opportunities in the Hunter region. The Foundation also aims to support local businesses affected
by economic changes and ensure governments, industry and the community work together on
greater diversification within the economy.
While these bodies have roles that align with regional goals and aspirations across different levels
of government, consultations with local stakeholders external to government and the governance
structure highlighted several shortcomings with the existing structure. These include:
• For stakeholders external to government, engaging and navigating the governance

structure can be difficult. While comprehensive, the existing structure is challenging for
external stakeholders to identify which appendage should be engaged with and best aligns with
their needs.
• External stakeholders also identified that it can be difficult to understand the differences
in role and responsibilities and, ultimately, the key decision-maker across the different
governance bodies. For example, for potential investors/businesses with interest in the region,
identifying which organisation to approach for assistance was not entirely clear.
• There is also a perception among external stakeholders of a lack of genuine
consultation, particularly when ascertaining how stakeholder engagement led to outcomes
that could support them during a structural economic transition.
An appropriate and well-designed governance structure can be the difference between a successful
and unsuccessful transition, playing a central role in assisting communities to navigate an
economic transition. To be successful, the structure needs to be transparent, accessible and
efficient, providing a tangible link between policy today and outcomes tomorrow. These linkages
need to be transparent and readily observable to gain the confidence and support of a diverse –
and not always aligned – group of key stakeholders. Principles of best governance frameworks and
examples of governance structures from other regions within Australia that have undergone a
disruptive economic transition are explored further in Chapter 8
To support the many complex aspects of an economic transition, there is a risk that governance
structures can evolve into multiple decision-making bodies, with each operating independently of
one another. Ultimately, this can result in either many actions that are at odds with one another,
or, worse, no action due to no clear lines of responsibility being established.
Alternatively, governance structures can become too complex without a clear set of goals and lines
of responsibility. This can result in inefficiencies in terms of the timeliness and quality of decision-
making. It may also lead to a lack of confidence among those outside the structure.
State and national policy alignment

There are several state and national policy and program initiatives that will impact the Upper
Hunter region. The economic and social development of the Upper Hunter sits within the context of
these broader state and national policies. Policies and program documents are listed in Appendix B
and C under national, state, regional and local government headings.
26
The aim of the numerous policies and documents is to provide strategic direction on economic
development, sustainability and environmental impacts of key industries at the national, state and
regional level. Frameworks to contextualise the aims of local government areas specific to the
Upper Hunter region provide guidance on how best to encourage economic opportunities for
businesses and people in the region.
The focus of several of the policy documents is to prepare the Upper Hunter and New South Wales
for a low or carbon neutral policy environment, with specific reference to reducing reliance on coal
mining within the region.

In the past few years, the State Government has released numerous strategic planning
documents. Of particular significance is the Strategic Statement on coal exploration and mining in
NSW and A 20-Year Economic Vision for Regional NSW.
The purpose of the Strategic Statement on coal exploration and mining in NSW is to outline how
the State Government is taking a responsible approach to the global transition to a low carbon
future, consistent with Australia’s ambition under the Paris Agreement. A 20-Year Economic Vision
for Regional NSW outlines the vision for regional town centres, people and businesses in New
South Wales. The document highlights key objectives to enable regional New South Wales to
achieve sustainable and long-term economic growth through developing strong trade agreements
and relationships, bringing governments, industry and communities together with a further focus
on Aboriginal economic participation.
The release of these strategic policy documents indicates that future development, planning for the
transition from coal to other energy sources and the diversification of industries, is already being
prepared for by key state and national policy makers.
27
3 Local demographics and

social trends

3.1 Trends in population
Current trends
Like many regional areas across Australia, the population in the Upper Hunter has remained
relatively stable across the past decade. While growth in the total state population has been above
average for several years, driven by strong international migration – particularly international
students in Sydney – regional centres across New South Wales have been relatively unsuccessful
in capturing a substantial share of overseas arrivals. Instead, regional population growth has been
sustained through natural increases, measured as the total number of births minus the total
number of deaths – a source of growth which is largely unsustainable in the long term, as birth
rates continue to decline across Australia and an ageing population leads to an increase in the
number of deaths. Net internal migration – the movement of people across Australia – is also
typically a drag on regional economies, including the Upper Hunter, particularly for young people
who are relatively mobile in seeking out work and educational opportunities.
Chart 3.1 shows the population of the Upper Hunter region was approximately 63,400 people in
2018-19, with the largest share (37 per cent) residing in Singleton.
Chart 3.1: Population of the Upper Hunter region by LGA, 2018-19
Source: Deloitte, ABS 15
Population growth in the region has been relatively slow across all LGAs, with average annual
growth across the past decade sitting at around 0.4 per cent per year (including some periods of
marginal population decline recently). Overall, the total population within the region is around the
same size as it was in 2015. In contrast, New South Wales has experienced relatively strong
15
ABS, Regional Population Growth Australia, 2018-19 (cat. no. 3218.0)
28
growth, driven largely by international migration, with an average of 1.4 per cent per year
recorded over the past decade.
Over 2018-19, natural increase (the difference between total births and total deaths) and net
overseas migration were positive contributors to population growth across each of the LGAs. While
net internal migration was a positive contributor to the population of Dungog, there were more
domestic departures than arrivals recorded for each of the other LGAs, resulting in a net loss of
approximately 440 people to other regions of Australia.

Chart 3.2: Regional population growth, 2009 to 2019
Age profile
While total population and population growth are important factors, the most important
demographic feature of any population is its age structure – which dictates everything from the
type of services and housing required, to consumption patterns and transport needs.
Overall, the total population within the region is relatively younger than the total state, with 21.4
per cent of the population in the Upper Hunter in 2018-19 aged between under 14-years
(compared with 18.7 per cent for total New South Wales). The working age population made up
63.2 per cent of the total Upper Hunter population in 2018-19 (compared with 65.2 per cent for
New South Wales), with internal outflows contributing to the relative lower proportion of people in
this age group. While a key source of concern for many regions, the trend towards young people
leaving – particularly for opportunities in capital cities – is largely consistent across the world.
Rather than a focus on retainment, some regions are now focussing their efforts on reattracting
young people once they have acquired additional skills and employment, and in many cases, are
ready (or have started) family formation.
At the other end of the population age structure, there were around 9,780 people living in the
Upper Hunter region who are aged 65 years and older (representing 15.4 per cent of the total
population, compared with 16.1 per cent for New South Wales). While most people in this age
group are retired from the workforce, there are some – particularly in the agricultural industry –
who remain active in the labour market well beyond the typical age of retirement. Overall, this age
16
Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2018-19
29
structure provides a boost to the labour force participation in a region (as participation is typically
calculated using the population 15 years and above), which means that participation at specific
ages should be considered when comparing other regions or averages.
Population projections
Looking forward, population growth across the region is expected to slow relative to the rest of the
state and decline over time. Future population projections prepared by DPIE (pre-COVID) under
high, low, and trend scenarios forecast that the population across the Upper Hunter will decline
relative to the rest of the state. Chart 3.3 shows that, under optimistic conditions, the regional

population is expected to increase at an annual average rate of 0.3 per cent per annum and reach
68,100 people over the 20 year period – or, under less favourable conditions, to decline by 0.3 per
cent per annum to 59,900 people.
The expected population decline across the Upper Hunter becomes more acute when only those in
the prime working-age cohort (25 to 54 years) are considered. As discussed earlier, this is
attributable to a combination of the region’s continued struggle to retain and attract younger
people and the ageing of the existing population. As shown in Chart 3.3, trend scenario estimates
for the prime working age population in the Upper Hunter declines by 8 percentage points over the
20-year period from around 24,600 in 2021 to 22,700 in 2041.
While the loss of the working-age population reflects a loss in productive capacity for the region,
such a decline also eases pressure on the labour market in the event that the region undergoes a
disruptive economic transition over this period. As explored further in Chapter 7, opportunities to
mitigate declines in the working-age population should focus on attracting younger workers to the
region through actions that support and facilitate the creation of desirable employment
opportunities, and improve the amenity and perception of the region as desirable place to live and
raise a family.
Chart 3.3: Population projections (indexed) for the Upper Hunter region by growth scenario, 2021-2041
Panel A: all ages Panel B: prime working-age (25 to 54 years)
Source: Deloitte, DPIE17
Across the Upper Hunter region, the projected decline in populations is not evenly distributed and
certain LGAs are expected to fare better than others. Chart 3.4 shows that the prime working-age
population in Dungog, for example, is expected to remain relatively stable over the period (under
the trend scenario); whereas, the population in Upper Hunter Shire is expected to decline rapidly
at an average annual rate of just over 1 per cent per year from around 5,500 in 2021 to 4,300
people in 2041.
17
NSW Government, Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Population Projection Scenarios by
LGA
<https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Population-projections/Projections>
30
It should be noted that these population projections were modelled by DPIE prior to the onset of
COVID-19. As a consequence, the modelled estimates, especially the estimated population
numbers, are not reflective of the short and longer-term impacts that COVID-19 is expected to
continue to have on population flows both internationally and domestically. At this stage, it
remains unclear what the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 might be on population flows, and
whether these trends will benefit the Upper Hunter region and potentially mitigate its population
decline. DPIE is currently in the process of updating its population forecasts for New South Wales
and these are expected to be available in late 2020 or early 2021.

Chart 3.4: Prime working-age (25 to 54 years) population projections (indexed) for Upper Hunter region
LGAs, 2021 to 2041 (trend scenario)
Source: Deloitte, DPIE18
3.2 Labour force tailored to current economy

Employment, unemployment and participation
The broader Hunter region has experienced a combination of low unemployment and high labour
force participation for several years, relative to New South Wales. The Upper Hunter’s participation
rate has remained above that of the greater Hunter region and New South Wales for a number of
years, at 71 per cent in 2018-19 as shown in Chart 3.5. Both male and female labour force
participation in the region is higher than the state average.
In 2018-19 the unemployment rate in the Upper Hunter was 4.8 per cent, comparable to the 4.6
per cent in NSW.19 This is not evenly distributed across the labour force, as shown in Chart 3.6.
18
Ibid.
19
Note: Labour force data is as at end of June 2019 and as such does not incorporate the impacts of the
COVID-19 pandemic. It is noted however that the total JobSeeker and Youth Allowance Payments for the Upper
Hunter region (comprising the Dungog, Muswellbrook, Muswellbrook Region, Scone, Scone Region and
Singleton SA2 areas) sat at around 3,000 and 460 recipients over the period May to July 2020.
31
Youth unemployment remains a key concern for the community with unemployment for those
aged 15 to 24 years reaching 10.6 per cent as of 2018-19.
Chart 3.5: Labour force participation rate, annually, 2011 to 2019
74%
Upper Hunter Hunter Region NSW
72%

70%
68%
66%
64%
62%
60%
58%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.6: Unemployment in the Upper Hunter, 2018-19
15-19
20-24
25-44
45-64
65-69
70+ Male Female
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
There is a wide variation in median incomes across the Upper Hunter, as shown in Chart 3.7.
Singleton and Muswellbrook median incomes are considerably higher than the state median,
reflecting the dominance of mining employment and wages in that sector. By comparison, the
Upper Hunter Shire and Dungog have significantly lower median incomes than the greater New
South Wales area.
32
Chart 3.7: Median employee income ($ nominal) by region, 2011 to 2017
56,000
Dungog (A)
53,000
Muswellbrook (A)

50,000
47,000 Singleton (A)
44,000
Upper Hunter
Shire (A)
41,000
NSW
38,000
Occupation, skills and education

While residents in the Upper Hunter typically have a lower level of educational attainment than the
average for New South Wales as a whole (see Chart 3.8 below), a larger than average share (36
per cent) of the workforce has a diploma or certificate; reflecting the required trade qualifications
of the main employment opportunities in the region.
Chart 3.8: Educational attainment among the working-age population, 2016
Panel A: By age grouping Panel B: By place of residence
100% 100%
Secondary Education Secondary Education
90%
Certificate Certificate
80% 80%
Advanced Diploma / Advanced Diploma /

70%
Diploma Level Diploma Level
60% Bachelor Degree 60% Bachelor Degree
50% Graduate Diploma /

Graduate Certificate Graduate Diploma /
Graduate Certificate
40% 40%
Postgraduate Degree
Level Postgraduate Degree
Level
30%
20%
20%
10%
0%
0% Upper Hunter NSW
15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Hunter Region
20
Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 6524.0.55.002, Personal Income in Australia, 2011-12 to 2016-17
33
There is no doubt that the labour market and the future of work has been impacted by the
outbreak of COVID-19. There remains ongoing uncertainty around the current crisis which has
seen increased unemployment and reduced economic activity throughout Australia. With more
people working from home, outflows of people from regional areas to large metropolitan cities is
likely to decrease in the short-term as fewer people move to urban areas for immediate work and
education opportunities.

Additionally, some analysts have also suggested that city residents may look to relocate to more
regional areas (such as the Upper Hunter) in response to the greater acceptance and normalisation
of working from home. In general, regional areas present an attractive alternative, offering greater
housing affordability, reduced traffic and positive lifestyle changes.
3.3 Community vibrancy

Community vibrancy is the active and inclusive participation in an economy by the whole
community, including those who are vulnerable to disadvantage and experience exclusion. A
vibrant economy achieves social and economic benefits for all individuals and the community
through evaluating and addressing existing social and economic barriers that create disparity and
disadvantage within communities.22
Disadvantage or vulnerability is the result of the complex interplay between individual factors, the
economic characteristics of the local community (e.g. unemployment, low income) and the effects
of the social and environmental context within the community (e.g. weak social networks, relative
lack of opportunities). As such, a one-pronged approach is unlikely to address the issues faced by
vulnerable cohorts in the Upper Hunter region. Gaining a deeper understanding of the vibrancy
and inclusiveness of the economy and designing policies and strategies is more likely to be
effective. This can be evaluated and supported through Deloitte’s 4(d)
4(d)
Deloitte’s 4(d) has three key components that consider what factors
and actions need to be taken to support vulnerable cohorts, delivering the benefits of inclusive
growth.
• Access – this component identifies and evaluates the various socioeconomic barriers that
operate to inhibit access and inclusion within an economy. For example, housing affordability,
transport accessibility, and access and options around health and education services.
• Belonging – this component identifies and assesses an individual’s sense of belonging. Strong
social networks within a community can support disadvantaged and marginalised cohorts,
whereas weak social networks or poor perceptions of certain cohorts can lead to further
isolation and disadvantage.
• Activation – this component assesses the drivers that support access and belonging within an
economy, such as the diversity of jobs within an economy, access to skills and education, and
diversity of housing.
There are numerous cohorts within a community that are disproportionately susceptible to
vulnerabilities and face greater barriers when participating in the broader economy. These include:
• young people (15 to 24 years)

• Indigenous Australians
• The long-term unemployed
• welfare recipients
• persons with disability
• lone parent families – especially female.
21
2016
22
AIHW (2016), Australia’s health 2016
34
These cohorts are more likely to have higher levels of unemployment and lower levels of labour
force participation, lower educational attainment rates, housing affordability issues, higher rates of
health and mental health issues and experience social and community exclusion. They may be
particularly vulnerable to the following barriers, which tend to disproportionately impact these
cohorts:
• a lack of growth and diversity of job opportunity, especially entry level jobs
• greater disparity in median incomes
• social, community and health service choice

• transport and distance to education and employment opportunities
• transport and distance to social, community and health services.
Within the Upper Hunter region, the following groups have been identified as vulnerable cohorts
who should be considered when developing inclusive growth policies:
• young people (15 to 24 years)

• Indigenous Australians
• the long-term unemployed
• lone parent families – especially female.
These vulnerable cohorts are considered in more detail in the following section below.
Young people23
Young people in the Upper Hunter region are disproportionately impacted by vulnerabilities that
affect their active participation in the economy.
The lack of active participation in the economy by young people is exemplified through the
comparison of various economic indicators against regional New South Wales averages. Youth
unemployment in the region is 10.6 per cent, compared to the region’s overall average of 4.8 per
cent. This in turn feeds a significant income disadvantage, with over 40 per cent of individuals
aged between 18 and 29 years reporting a shortage of money to meet daily needs, as well as 80
per cent unable to raise $2,000 in the event of an emergency, and 14 per cent falling below the
poverty line.24 This income inequality leaves many young people vulnerable.
Chart 3.9: Generational inequality existing within the Upper Hunter region
25
Source: HRFC
Note: Categories within age cohorts do not sum to 100%
23
Young people for the purposes of this section is defined as those aged between 15 and 24 years.
24
Hunter Research Foundation Centre, Hunter Region Economic Indicators - Special Issue: Inequality, 2018
25
35
Young people are more likely to face the disruptive capacity of technology and the changing nature
of work as Industry 4.0 progresses and science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)
capabilities become increasingly ingrained across all industries. Currently, industries within the
Upper Hunter region rely heavily on trades and skills, specifically in the fields of engineering,
automotive, electro-technology and construction. The region has been underpinned by its relative
advantage in mining over the past few decades, which has resulted in a workforce that is highly
paid but not necessarily highly skilled. Moreover, some stakeholders noted that many young
people in the mining industry lack a strong educational foundation, leaving secondary education

before completion of year 12. As a result, the workforce is facing potential difficulties in the
transferability in skills which may present significant issues in the future.
Employment and educational attainment rates among young people (i.e. those aged between 15
and 24 years) reflects regional employment patterns that require trade qualifications for males,
with over 66 per cent of males attaining certificate level qualifications compared to 16 per cent
with bachelor degrees or higher. There is higher female employment in occupations that require
degrees, including health, education and professional services, with 29 per cent of females holding
bachelor’s degrees. However, the overall share of young people in the Upper Hunter holding
tertiary qualifications is significantly lower than the state average (31 per cent of males and 40 per
cent of females).26 Relatively low tertiary education attainment is also propagated by the
opportunity cost associated with pursuing further studies rather than income-generating work.
Most roles within the mining industry require hands-on training in the form of apprenticeships and
“learning on the job”, where employees receive the baseline training required to complete their
role. As these mining roles are generally well-paid, there is perceived to be little benefit in
completing further education rather than working, especially for young people who are seeking to
better their own or their family’s financial situation.
Cultural factors also contribute to the low education attainment rates as many young people are
the first in their family to have the opportunity to pursue a university education, which can affect
participation and retention rates. As a result, over 51 per cent are non-school qualified,27 with a
very low baseline of capabilities that extend beyond their immediate role.28
Chart 3.10: Skills and education level of young people across the Upper Hunter region
Source: Upper Hunter Workforce Plan, 2016
26
Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 4125.0, Gender Indicators, Australia, Sep 2017.
27
Non-school qualified refers to highest qualification less than year 12.
28
2016
36
In addition, access to highly regarded tertiary education in the region is limited, with those with
the opportunity and means opting to move to metropolitan hubs such as Newcastle to pursue this.
The lack of public transport and distance between housing and education and job opportunities
forces a preference for vehicular transport, further disadvantaging young people who have access
to limited finances to gain access to a car and a license in order to pursue further education or
employment. Whilst COVID-19 has improved the region’s access to TAFE and online university
courses, various stakeholders have identified that there must be an improvement in the delivery of
these courses to increase engagement and learning outcomes. Furthermore, basic literacy,

numeracy and technology skills are a barrier to accessing these online tools, requiring further
incorporation into primary and secondary schooling.
Vulnerable cohorts within the community face greater disadvantage, often perpetuated by a lack of
appropriate support systems. This in turn acts as a barrier to both employment and further
educational attainment. Young people are especially vulnerable in the Upper Hunter Region,
identified as the group least likely to feel a part of their community.29
One in five young people in the Upper Hunter region (aged between 15 and 18) are affected by
mental illness – of which, 38 per cent have had a concern report in the last three years, meaning
that concerns have been raised about their wellbeing or safety by community members. One
quarter (25 per cent) of these at-risk youth are either living or have lived in social housing;
however, this figure does not accurately reflect those living under high rental stress and who are
unable to access social and affordable housing.30
Some young people may face barriers to accessing housing due to the high rental costs, low
incomes, insecure share housing and the lack of social and affordable housing in the region.31
Despite the number of social and affordable housing schemes across the Upper Hunter region, as
noted by Marina Lee-Warner of the Upper Hunter Homeless Support, “there’s a long wait and there
are long queues for community housing.”32 In the Upper Hunter, as discussed in the social impact
focus groups, this translates to overcrowding, people sleeping in their cars, and a general lack of
wellbeing and safety.
The costs associated with supporting at-risk young people is 3.5 times the average cost for all
young people in New South Wales. On average, the aggregated cost of providing human services
to these at-risk youth up to the age of 40 is $138,000.33 Part of this cost could be avoided if at-
risk young people were supported at an earlier stage, with measures such as social and affordable
housing and early and ongoing support provided by mental health and social services. Economic
diversification would further improve long-term and stable employment prospects, reducing
unemployment and providing opportunities to people in the region.
In addressing youth vulnerability, employment is a major driver towards greater socio-economic

equality. As discussed above, youth unemployment is a major issue within the Upper Hunter
region, with limited entry-level positions and evidence of youth disengagement from education and
training. Approximately 52 per cent of at-risk youth receive NAPLAN results lower than Band 6,
demonstrating a lack of engagement from a younger age.34 Less than 40 per cent of the youth
cohort completes Year 12 or equivalent,35 likely due to the combination of growing disengagement
and the desire to pursue high-paying vocational trades as previously discussed, rather than
completing their education. However, as the region shifts away from mining and associated skills,
young people will face a significant disadvantage due to their lack of a strong foundational
29
30
NSW Government, (2018), Their Futures Matter [online] Available at <
https://www.theirfuturesmatter.nsw.gov.au/> [Accessed June 2018]
31
Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, 2020. Australia's Children. [online] Available at:
<https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/6af928d6-692e-4449-b915-cf2ca946982f/aihw-cws-69-print-
report.pdf.aspx?inline=true> [Accessed 6 August 2020].
32
Tsaousis, C., 2019. Muswellbrook St Vincent de Paul Society raising awareness and funds for
homelessness through its annual Sleepout. Hunter Valley News, [online] Available at:
33
NSW Government, (2018), Their Futures Matter [online] Available at
<https://www.theirfuturesmatter.nsw.gov.au/> [Accessed June 2018]
34
Ibid
35
Upper Hunter Workforce Plan (2016)
37
education. This will likely exacerbate the income disadvantage, rental stress and general lack of
wellbeing faced by young people in the region.
As demonstrated, young people in the Upper Hunter region are disproportionately impacted by
certain vulnerabilities which reduce their active participation in the economy. The complex
interplay between income disadvantage, reduced educational attainment, lack of employment
opportunities and inadequate support services can lead to an overall loss of wellbeing and safety
for this vulnerable cohort, damaging their ability to contribute to the community and in turn
actively participate in the economy.

In order to support greater economic participation of this cohort, the following factors should be
considered: greater diversity of opportunity for entry level jobs; affordable social and community
services and infrastructure; better community and educational engagement; improved transport
accessibility and access to adequate mental and health services. These are explored further as
opportunities for action in section 7.4 and section 7.5. Without addressing the barriers identified,
this cohort will continue to present additional strain on the health, social service, and economic
systems within the region.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population

Across Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) people are disproportionately
faced with unique challenges that can negatively impact on their social and emotional wellbeing.
These factors include racism, violence and high psychological distress. This impact to wellbeing can
have negative impacts on employment, income, living conditions and accessing economic
opportunity. These factors of disadvantage often place Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people
in a position of vulnerability compared to the non-Indigenous population.36 This is evident in
education, income and employment data from across the Upper Hunter region.
For example, 4 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons have attained a university
qualification in the Upper Hunter Region, compared to 12 per cent of non-Indigenous Australians in
same region. A similar trend is seen with VET qualifications, where 29 per cent of Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander persons achieve this qualification compared to 36 per cent in the non-
Indigenous population. By comparison, 13 per cent of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
population have completed a Year 12 qualification, on par with the non-Indigenous population.
More than half, or 55 per cent of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have Year 11
or below as their highest qualification. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are less likely to
undertake further education due to cultural barriers, affordability issues, community
disengagement and lack of access to support and health services. It is critical to address these
barriers to ensure that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are given greater opportunities
to access further education.
36
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/australias-welfare-2017-in-brief/contents/indigenous-
australians
38
Chart 3.11: Education Levels of Indigenous and Non-Indigenous people across the Upper Hunter Region

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Upper Hunter region are more likely to
experience higher levels of economic disengagement. In 2016, for example, the average
unemployment rate for Indigenous residents was around 14 per cent in comparison to the 6.7 per
cent rate experience across the region more broadly. Labour force participation among the
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population was also lower at 64.3 per cent, compared to 68
per cent within the total Upper Hunter region in 2016.
Within the Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook features the highest unemployment rate among the
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population (Chart 3.12). This is driven by higher
unemployment rates across all age groupings, but particularly adult unemployment (35 years and
older) – for which the unemployment rate in Muswellbrook is 17.1 per cent, compared to 5.7 per
cent in Singleton, 2.9 per cent in Upper Hunter Shire, and 0.0 per cent in Dungog.
Chart 3.12: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander unemployment rate, Upper Hunter region, 2016
37
2016
39
As illustrated in Chart 3.13, median personal weekly income among Aboriginal and Torres Strait
Islanders is lower compared to the non-Indigenous population – but slightly higher than that of the
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population across the rest of New South Wales.
Chart 3.13: Median total personal weekly income of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and
non-Indigenous people across the Upper Hunter Region and NSW, 2016

Lower employment and educational attainment among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people
is further perpetuated by large inequities in health between the Indigenous population and non-
Indigenous populations. A significant proportion (64 per cent) of the burden of disease among
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is due to chronic diseases, while a further 19 per cent
of this burden is due to mental health and substance use disorders.40 The three highest ranked
health issues within this population are coronary heart disease, suicide and self-inflicted injuries
and anxiety disorders.41 All of these conditions are affected by the ability to access services that
enrich an individual’s social determinants of health. Less disposable income provides less choice
and access to these services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. At the national level,
the current life expectancy gap at birth between Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons is 8.6
years for males and 7.8 years for females.42
In 2012-13, 30 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 18-years and over
reported high or very high levels of psychological distress, compared to 10 per cent of non-
Indigenous Australians in New South Wales.43 Through consultations with social service providers,
38
Ibid.
39
Ibid.
40
Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, 2011. Australian Burden of Disease Study: impact and causes of
illness and death in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people 2011. [online] Available at: <
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/burden-of-disease/illness-death-indigenous-australians/contents/table-of-
contents>
41
Ibid.
42
Australian Government (2020) ‘Closing the Gap 2020’
<https://ctgreport.niaa.gov.au/sites/default/files/pdf/closing-the-gap-report-2020.pdf>.
43
Australia Institute of Health and Welfare, 2017. Health Performance Framework 2017 Report. [online]
Available at: < https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/580054e1-f967-4d48-82c9-bf67fbfb08d1/aihw-ihw-182-
nsw.pdf.aspx?inline=true>
40
it was made clear that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people require access to long-term
mental health services to heal from intergenerational trauma. However, the services that social
workers and counsellors are funded to provide are short term, which does not meet the great
needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people.44 Long-term, culturally sensitive
mental health services are expensive and often located in bigger cities, which means they are
often not accessible.
Physical and mental health have an impact on an individual’s ability to be motivated to work and
their likelihood of being hired and retained.45 Without affordable social infrastructure to support

positive health outcomes and mental health, these poor health outcomes will continue to burden
the health and economic systems and impede an individual’s ability to access work and further
education.
As mentioned above, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people earn significantly less personal
weekly income than other populations within the Upper Hunter region and are more likely to face
long-term unemployment. This causes great financial strain that also impacts access to stable
housing. As a result, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in regional areas have been
identified as more likely to live in overcrowded dwellings or in social housing, and less likely to own
their own home.46,47 With over 60,000 people on the current New South Wales waiting list for
social housing, the need for more affordable housing is evident.48
The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of the region is characterised by a much
younger age profile. As mentioned in section 3.3.1, as the region moves away from mining and
skills-based trades, higher educational qualifications will be required to access employment
opportunities. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people are less likely to access further
education due to barriers.49 Some of the barriers surfaced in social and community services
consultations included cost, cultural factors and transport barriers in the Upper Hunter Region. The
nearest university is in Newcastle, which is an expensive commute and takes almost a two hour
drive from Muswellbrook. Additionally, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people may not
be encouraged by family to pursue further study and instead choose to work, to provide for their
families instead. During consultations undertaken with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people
and social service providers, it was made evident that many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
young people access TAFE qualifications, through partnerships with local schools and social
services through mechanisms such as art therapy groups. However, it was noted that the
industries within the region are rapidly evolving and that these qualifications are usually only a
stepping-stone, and not enough to access a job in the market.
44
Dudgeon, P, Milroy, H, Walker, R, 2014, Working together: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Mental
Health and Wellbeing Principles and Practice, Commonwealth Government, available at:
https://www.telethonkids.org.au/globalassets/media/documents/aboriginal-health/working-together-second-
edition/working-together-aboriginal-and-wellbeing-2014.pdf
45
Goodman, N, November 2015, The Impact of Employment on the Health Status and Health Care Costs of
Working-age People with Disabilities, Lead Centre, available at:
<http://www.leadcenter.org/system/files/resource/downloadable_version/impact_of_employment_health_stat
us_health_care_costs_0.pdf>
46
NSW Council of Social Service (2019), Mapping Economic Disadvantage in New South Wales
47
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2017), Australia's Welfare 2017: in brief
48
NSW Government, 2016. Future Directions for Social Housing in NSW [online] Available at: <
http://www.socialhousing.nsw.gov.au/?a=348442>
49
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2018, The Prime Minister’s annual report to Parliament on
progress in Closing the Gap, Australian Government, available at:
<https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/reports/closing-the-gap-2018/education.html>
41
Chart 3.14: Age distribution of Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in the Upper Hunter region,
2016

Source: ABS50
As demonstrated above, Indigenous people in the Upper Hunter region are impacted by significant
vulnerabilities which may put them at risk of reduced participation in mainstream economic
activities. This complex interplay between relatively low educational attainment, lower levels of
employment and inadequate support services (as noted through the consultations held as part of
this project) can lead to an overall loss of wellbeing and safety, damaging their ability to contribute
to the community and in turn actively participate in the economy.
In order to support greater economic participation of this cohort the following should be
considered:
• greater access to transport

• greater diversity of entry level jobs
• affordable social and community infrastructure
• better community and educational engagement
• and access to adequate mental and health services.
These are explored further as opportunities for action in sections 7.4 and 7.5. Without addressing
the barriers identified, this cohort will continue to present additional strain on the health, social
service, and economic systems within the region.
Lone parent families

Recipients of welfare within the Upper Hunter region, especially intergenerational welfare
recipients, are impacted by significant vulnerabilities that affect their active participation in the
economy. Within the cohort of welfare recipients, lone parent families, specifically those that are
headed by a single female parent, are particularly susceptible to experiencing economic
challenges, as discovered during various consultations.
Analysis of the economic characteristics of this group, including unemployment rates and economic
indicators such as median household income, highlight the existing vulnerabilities within the
cohort.
50
2016
42
Lone parent families, of which 83 per cent in Australia are headed by a single female parent, are
the family type with the highest rates of poverty. Lone female parents in particular are known to
experience higher rates of poverty (see Chart 3.15). For New South Wales, outside of metropolitan
Sydney, the poverty rate for lone parent households is 35 per cent, almost 8 percentage points
higher than that of the metropolitan area. In regional New South Wales, lone parent households
have been found to be particularly economically challenged. Recently published research by the
NSW Council of Social Services identified that lone parent households in regional New South Wales
experience much higher rates of significant economic disadvantage, with multiple regional

locations demonstrating poverty rates of over 50 per cent for lone parent households.51
Chart 3.15: Poverty rates by family type in NSW, 2019
40 35
35
Poverty rates (%)
30 27.2
24.2
25 22.6 21.2
18.7
20
15 11.8 12.3 10.7
7.4 8.8
10 6.3
5
0
Couple only households Couple with children Single parent Single person
households households households
NSW Sydney Rest of NSW
Source: NSW Council of Social Services 52
A comparison of the average weekly income of lone parent households to that of the average
weekly incomes across the Upper Hunter region highlights a significant disparity. Specifically, in
the Muswellbrook LGA, average weekly income for families headed by a single female parent is
$225 less than the average household.53 This difference is the result of a number of factors,
including barriers to employment and higher susceptibility to welfare dependence.
Although the average weekly income for male and female-headed lone parent families is
comparable (exclusive of the Singleton LGA), there are significantly more female lone parents
within the Upper Hunter. Census data indicates that there were more than triple the number of
female-headed lone parent families living within the Upper Hunter region (approximately 1,800) in
comparison to male-headed ones (approximately 500).
Further, within these groups, there is a notable variance in the range of age groups. The female-
headed lone parent families are, on average, significantly younger than their male counterparts,
with over 60 per cent of female lone parents aged under 45 years, and over 60 per cent of male
lone parents aged over 45 years54. Additionally, almost 20 per cent of female lone parents are
aged under 30, compared to just 3 per cent of male lone parents. This demonstrates the
intersecting of vulnerabilities amongst female-headed lone parent families, as many also
experience the challenges of being a young person, indicating that this group is susceptible to an
increased number of social and economic challenges compared with their male counterparts.
Within the Upper Hunter, female-headed lone parent families were seen to experience higher rates
of unemployment compared to all persons within the region. Data from the 2016 ABS Census, for
example, indicates an average unemployment rate of 14.4 per cent for female-headed lone parent
51
ACOSS, UNSW (2020), Poverty in Australia 2020
52
NSW Council of Social Service (2019), Mapping Economic Disadvantage in New South Wales
53
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016
54
Ibid
43
families – more than double the average rate of 6.25 per cent for all persons within the Upper
Hunter Shire, Dungog, Muswellbrook, and Singleton LGAs.55
Chart 3.16: Employment among lone parent families (female parent), Upper Hunter region

Source: Deloitte, ABS (2016)
The lower rates of income and employment for female sole parents are affected by a series of
interlinked issues that are not only a symptom of, but also contribute to their economic and social
barriers. Consultation with social service providers of the Upper Hunter region highlighted several
key barriers to social inclusion, employment and/or education. These barriers included lack of
transport, high costs of living and housing, scepticism and a negative perception of accessing
support services, and isolation from social and community services.
Cost of living pressures in the Upper Hunter region
A sentiment to emerge from community and industry stakeholder consultations, particularly

those with strong linkages with the agribusiness sectors, is the perceived impact that coal
mining is having on the costs of living and housing affordability in the region for those in
industries unrelated to mining. While areas like the Upper Hunter LGA are more affordable
relative to metropolitan cities and other regional areas in New South Wales,56 the experience
for residents, particularly low-income earners, has been different. In general, the presence of
large mining projects has varying and complex impacts on regional economies and
communities, particularly on housing and housing affordability. Where mining activity increases
employment and incomes, it can also contribute to cost of living pressures for lower socio-
economic groups, such as lone parent households, which can compound and lead to other
costly social issues such as a shortage of affordable housing.57
55
Ibid
56
Compass Housing, 2020, The affordable housing income gap, available at:
https://www.compasshousing.org/sites/default/files/Compass%20AHIG%20Index%202020%20Report_WEB%
20%281%29.pdf
57
Akbar, D and Rolfe, J, 2013, Assessing and Managing Cumulative Impacts of Mining on Regional Housing in
Australia: A Case Study, Central Queensland University,
https://www.anzrsai.org/assets/Uploads/Resources/ANZRSAI-2013-Conference-Proceedings.pdf#page=21
44
These barriers, specifically high costs of living and lack of accessibility (due to transport limitations
and isolation), make entering the workforce particularly challenging for people of a lower income,
such as female sole parents.
One example of these barriers in the Upper Hunter is a lack of access to affordable childcare. From
consultations it emerged that affordable and accessible childcare is an issue for parents and carers
within the Upper Hunter, and specifically lone parents given limited choice and availability.
Childcare services can require a significant proportion of the household income,58 and limited
choice or number of early childhood education services across the Upper Hunter regions

exacerbate this issue. For lone parent families who are already facing increased economic
hardships compared to two parent households, finding financially accessible childcare is even more
of a struggle. The inability to access childcare due to financial struggles, in turn, contributes
further to their financial burden as it limits their ability to participate in the workforce.
The Australian Institute of Family Studies found a variety of childcare-related issues that may
affect employment decisions, particularly of lone parents. These issues included shortages of
locally available childcare, availability to take children to and from school, access, and ability to fit
work in with care responsibilities (especially a lack of flexibility in low-paid, low-skilled jobs).59 The
isolation from social and community services and limitations to transport within the Upper Hunter
increases the identified challenges for sole parents in the region.
As previously articulated, sole-parent households (the majority of which are female-headed) have
been identified as the most impoverished family type in Australia and are known to be
overrepresented in areas of poverty, hardship, deprivation, violence and inequality.60
Policy responses are thought to sometimes worsen rather than relieve the ability of lone parent
families to meet household expenses. The financial predicament of female-lead sole parent families
is exacerbated by cuts to welfare payments, inflexible activity requirements, and problems with
the child support system.
Further, poverty in sole parent families is thought to be generationally entrenched. Around three
per cent of Australians (or around 700,000 people) are estimated to experience persistent and
recurrent poverty. In alignment with these findings, consultation with representatives from the
Upper Hunter Region from the social services landscape identified that a number of welfare
dependent groups within the region are intergenerational welfare recipients. The longevity of
poverty and susceptibility to remaining within the lowest brackets of income distribution across
many years is indicative of entrenched inequality. It has been estimated that rectifying the
impoverished status of sole parent families could take as long as four generations.61
Intergenerational welfare receipt is a broader marker of intergenerational disadvantage than

traditional income poverty, and reflects not only a lack of income, but also low levels of wealth,
poor health, inadequate housing and limited aspirations. Growing up in a family receiving welfare
is a marker for compromised long-term development.62 Research has shown that young people
(aged 18 to 26 years) are almost twice as likely to need welfare assistance if their parents have a
history of receiving welfare assistance. The extent to which welfare assistance is linked across
generations, however, depends on the nature of those benefits.63
Analysis of transgenerational data indicated that although only one in six young Australians (aged
16 to 18 years) in welfare-reliant families received income support themselves, they were much
more likely to do so than their more advantaged peers.64
58
Compass Housing Services, 2018. A Deep Place Study of Muswellbrook NSW
59
Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, 2019. Living on the Edge: Inquiry into Intergenerational
Welfare Dependence
60
Ibid
61
Ibid
62
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, (2019). Australia’s Welfare 2019 Data Insights
63
Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, 2019. Living on the Edge: Inquiry into Intergenerational
Welfare Dependence
64
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, (2019). Australia’s Welfare 2019 Data Insights
45
Additionally, it has been established that young Australian people in welfare-reliant families
engage in riskier behaviour (though this is reduced with participation in extracurricular activities),
are less likely to reside with and/or receive any financial support from parents, and are more
socially isolated. Each of these factors represents a potential pathway extending socio-economic
disadvantage across generations.65
The intergenerational correlation in welfare recipients varies across payment types, indicating that
some forms of disadvantage may be more easily transferred from parents to children than others.
For example, young adults are significantly more likely to receive a range of welfare payments if

they grow up in sole parent families (compared to two parent families) receiving parenting
payments.66
Within the Upper Hunter, one third of the population (33 per cent) is reported as receiving welfare
assistance. Comparatively, the share of welfare recipients across the Sydney metropolitan area is
5 per cent lower, at 28 per cent. Of the welfare recipients within the Upper Hunter, the LGAs of
Muswellbrook and Singleton are disproportionately affected, with 68 per cent and 42 per cent of
each population respectively receiving welfare assistance.67
The disadvantage or vulnerability of lone parents, specifically females, is the result of the complex
interplay between individual factors including economic characteristics and the effects of the social
and environmental context within the community.
The challenges faced by this cohort in workforce participation leads to increased financial strain
which subsequently creates barriers of accessibility. Lack of access to affordable housing and social
and community services due to their financial position, as well as infrastructure and transport
limitations, can lead to increased mental health issues and feelings of social isolation for this
cohort.
As well as lone parent families living under high rental stress and who are ineligible for social and
affordable housing, those who are eligible still face challenges. Consultations with representatives
of the Upper Hunter region revealed that there are almost 60,000 people on the New South Wales
waitlist for social housing, with an acute need in the region68.
Additionally, this vulnerable cohort is more susceptible to mental health issues, predominantly due
to financial stresses. The high cost of social and community services make accessibility
challenging, along with a lack of infrastructure, social stigmas, and unsuitability of services
creating barriers for this cohort in the Upper Hunter. It was noted during consultations that funded
services provided by social workers and counsellors are only short term, and hence unable to
successfully support those seeking help.
Lone parents within the Upper Hunter region are currently inhibited from participation in the
workforce, creating a human capital gap and resulting in a missed opportunity to strengthen the
economy. As demonstrated, lone parents in the Upper Hunter region are impacted by significant
vulnerabilities which reduce their active participation in the economy which in turn reduces the
opportunity to strengthen the regional economy. In order to support greater economic
participation of this cohort, opportunities such as improvements to the care economy of the region
should be explored (see section 7.5.3 for further details).
65
Ibid
66
Ibid
67
Department of Social Services, March 2020, DSS Payment Demographic Data, Australian Government
[online] Available at: <https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/dss-payment-demographic-data> [Accessed July
2020]
68
Tsaousis, C., 2019. Muswellbrook St Vincent de Paul Society raising awareness and funds for
homelessness through its annual Sleepout. Hunter Valley News, [online] Available at:
<https://www.huntervalleynews.net.au/story/6190402/homelessness-a-problem-in-upper-hunter/>
[Accessed 6 August 2020].
46
3.4 A relatively advantaged region, with pockets of disadvantage

The Upper Hunter faces the challenge to diversify its economy from a position of strength,
including a higher than average labour force participation rate. However, the highly concentrated
economic structure of the region creates vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities disproportionately
impact certain key cohorts, reducing resilience.
While unemployment levels across the Upper Hunter region are comparable to New South Wales,
and median incomes comparable to metropolitan Sydney in some areas, certain cohorts within

certain areas do not enjoy the same levels of benefits as evidenced above. This inequitable
distribution is reflected in the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage (IRSD) of LGAs in
the region69. The ISRD allows for the identification and exploration of the contributing factors of
vulnerability within an economy and can points towards who and where vulnerable cohorts might
be.
Table 3.1: IRSD Scores, 2011 and 2016
LGA 2011 2016

IRSD score State rank IRSD score State rank (out
(out of 130) of 130)
Muswellbrook 959 78 930 27
Upper Hunter Shire 967 86 976 70
Dungog 978 97 989 87
Singleton 1007 116 994 89
As displayed in Table 3.1, there is a significant difference between IRSD scores across LGAs in the
Upper Hunter region, highlighting pockets of disadvantage. For example, comparing Muswellbrook
to Singleton shows a greater proportion of vulnerable cohorts, with a higher number of individuals
receiving welfare payments in Muswellbrook. Additionally, the proportion of unemployed young
people (15 to 24 years) in Muswellbrook is 20.1 per cent, compared to 12.5 per cent in
Singleton.71 Muswellbrook also has a higher proportion of lone parent families, at 12.4 per cent,
compared to 10.1 per cent in Singleton. Additionally, the relative decline in IRSD between 2011
and 2016 can be explained by a major structural shift in industry composition, with the rapid
decline in manufacturing and the waning mining boom from 2013.
The presence of vulnerable cohorts in certain areas of the Upper Hunter region creates pockets of
disadvantage, wherein communities are disproportionately affected by mental health issues, drug
and alcohol abuse, unemployment, social housing and welfare issues. These pockets of
disadvantage amplify the challenges of unemployment disproportionately affecting certain
vulnerable cohorts in the region.
69
The Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD) is an ABS product that ranks areas in Australia
according to relative socio-economic disadvantage using a range of information about the economic and social
conditions of people and households. The ISRD is based on information from the five-yearly Census of
Population and Housing.
70
Australian Bureau of Statistics, cat. no. 2033.0.55.001, Census of Population and Housing: Socio-Economic
Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), Australia, 2016
71
Department of Social Services Payment Demographic Data, March 2020, Australian Government
47
4 Land use planning

The Upper Hunter region plays a major role in the economy of New South Wales and Australia, and
economic prosperity is sustained mainly by agriculture, mining and energy. Strategic land use
planning is vital to maintaining balanced land use across the region and minimising and mitigating

land use conflicts which may arise from competing industries, population settlements, and demand
for resources. Current constraints and issues affecting the region’s land use planning are:
• water security
• biodiversity
• rehabilitation
• uncertainty around long-term demand for coal
• natural hazards.
4.1 Current land use across the Upper Hunter

Agriculture and equine
Agriculture in the Upper Hunter region encompasses a diverse range of production activity across
the sector. Dominating land use in the region as a share of total land (Figure 4.1), agricultural
activities encompass large tracts of grazing land with animal and horticultural uses, including
viticulture. This includes emerging and specialist agricultural activity such as essential oil
production, and specialised cropping for hemp. Agricultural products produced in the region
include:
• animal production and products (equine, beef, pigs, poultry, dairy)

• grapes (viticulture)
• cropping
• turf.72
: Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region
Source: Deloitte
72
NSW Cadastre (2020)
48
Over 60 per cent of the land in the Upper Hunter region is involved in agricultural activity from
grazing, growing, storage and associated buildings and infrastructure. Over 860 farms produce a
diverse range of products, with the top three commodities being cattle, milk and poultry.
The current uses of agricultural land are outlined in Table 4.1, detailing types of agricultural use by
land area. This shows that grazing takes up the largest proportion of agricultural land, followed by
cropping and forestry. Intensive animal production and horticulture occupy relatively small
proportions of agricultural land, reflective of both the size of the industry and the land required to
undertake various agricultural activities.

Table 4.1: Agricultural land uses in the Upper Hunter Region by category and area
Agricultural use Area (ha)

Grazing native vegetation 641,404
Grazing modified pastures 271,036
Cropping 47,816
Production native forests 41,370
Grazing irrigated modified pastures 18,053
Intensive animal production 7,971
Irrigated perennial horticulture 2,278
Plantation forests 2,027
Perennial horticulture 1,256
Irrigated cropping 269
Seasonal horticulture 74
Irrigated seasonal horticulture 67
Irrigated plantation forestry 65
Irrigated land in transition 24
Intensive horticulture 6
Total agricultural land use 1,033,706
Source: NSW Cadastre (2020)
The region’s equine industry, which is centered in Scone, represents less than one per cent of
total land use in the Upper Hunter, contributing $603 million in value added to Australia’s economy
annually and home to the largest concentration of thoroughbred studs outside of Kentucky in the
United States.73 The industry has established world-class infrastructure which includes the Hunter
Valley Equine Research Centre at Scone. Proximity to airports provide ready access for interstate
and international buyers.
73
Hardy, G and Limoli, P., 2019, Measurement of economic impact of the Australian thoroughbred breeding
industry, AgriFutures Australia
49
Coal mining
Coal mining within the Upper Hunter is expected to continue to be a significant contributor to
the region’s economy over the short to medium-term. Thermal coal is the primary coal product
mined and exported from the Upper Hunter region, contributing to the Port of Newcastle having
the largest throughput of coal of any port in Australia.74 Significant mining operators in the region
are:
• BHP operating Mt Arthur Coal Mine near Muswellbrook

• Bloomfield Collieries operating Rix's Creek open cut mine near Singleton

• Bengalla Mining Company operating Bengalla mine near Muswellbrook
• Idemitsu operating Muswellbrook open cut
• Malabar Coal, owner of Maxwell and Spur Hill underground mine proposals near
Muswellbrook
• MACH Energy operating Mount Pleasant mine near Muswellbrook
• Peabody operating Wambo mine near Singleton
• Yancoal operating Ashton and Mount Thorley Warkworth mines near Singleton
• Glencore operating Bulga, Hunter Valley Operations, Integra, Liddell, Mangoola, Mount Owen
and Ravensworth mines
: Mining sector land use, Upper Hunter
Source: Deloitte
Mine rehabilitation
Rehabilitation of mining land is a concern across the globe and remains a significant issue within
the Upper Hunter. The stability of the land and effects of open cut mining on surface and ground
water, salt and heavy metal loads has ecological, economic and social implications. With 30 open
voids in the region, rehabilitation is a key theme for future land use. Typical post-mining land uses
include crop production, grazing, conservation and forestry. All current approvals contain
conditions regarding rehabilitation; however, backfilling of voids is not a legal requirement.
74
Minerals Council of Australia (2018) The outlook for coal exports and domestic electricity demand/supply,
available at: <http://businesschamber.com.au/NSWBC/media/Hunter/Presentations/G-Evans-Hunter-Valley-
Chamber-Business-lunch-presentation-on-23-Feb-2018.pdf>
50
In response to community concerns regarding mine rehabilitation, the Upper Hunter Mining
Dialogue was established in 2011, engaging with stakeholders in a collaborative effort to discuss
opportunities for end of life mine uses. The top ten end uses, as identified in the “Beneficial Reuse
of Voids Project” report (November 2019)75 are:
• recreation
• waste management
• hydropower
• bike riding and walking trails

• tourism
• wildlife habitat
• emergency services
• flood mitigation
• theme parks
• aquaculture.
Prior to commencement of mining operations, comprehensive rehabilitation plans are developed to

determine post-mining use, and include objectives developed in consultation with the community.
Mining companies are responsible for the full cost and implementation, with each mine required to
lodge a rehabilitation security deposit to cover estimated costs. The Legacy Mines Program
currently assists in the remediation of legacy sites where no owner can be held responsible.
An analysis of the Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) of 13 open cut mining projects in the
Hunter Valley indicates that 12 of these projects plan to retain at least one final void following
completion of mining activities. Each operation has committed to returning the rest of the land
used for mining to its original condition or similar. However, the final voids left behind will leave a
significant footprint on the environment.
Mining companies are responsible for the costs and implementation of land rehabilitation
plans. Under the current legislation, over 10,500ha of mining land will undergo (or
commence) rehabilitation in the next 20 years across the Upper Hunter region.
There is some, albeit limited, potential to alter rehabilitation requirements should a re-use purpose
mean that full rehabilitation is not required (and indeed could place unnecessary time and financial
constraints on re-use). However, such opportunities have yet to arise on any significant scale and
would, in any event, require individual assessment on a case by case basis.
75
Upper Hunter Mining Dialogue (2019) ‘Beneficial Reuse of Voids Project: Summary Report’
(http://miningdialogue.com.au/getattachment/Dialogue/Latest-Projects/Land-Management/Investigation-of-
Possible-Beneficial-Uses-for-Mine/UHMD_Beneficial-Reuse-of-Voids-Project_Summary-Report.pdf)
51
Buffer lands
Land use buffers play an important role in reducing the risk of land use conflict and impacts
between incompatible uses through separation of activities. It is important to note that, while
buffers lessen the potential for conflict, these can still occur and will be dependent on individual
circumstances. The most recently available estimates indicate that buffer lands cover an area of
45,533ha across the Upper Hunter region, detailed in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2: Estimated buffer land held by Upper Hunter mining companies, 2018

Use type Area (ha)
Agricultural land - grazing, dairy, cropping, intensive, other 40,990
Residential land 808
Commercial land 71
Recreational land 37
Other land (including vacant land and land not suitable for use) 3,627
Total area of buffer land 45,533
Source: NSW Mining
Acquisition of land by mining companies for buffer zones has driven depopulation in some areas of
the Upper Hunter region, such as Camberwell, Hebden and Wallaby Scrub Road.76 Consistency
of key planning instruments (local strategic planning statements, local land use strategies,
equivalent state documents and state mining regulations) in the region will be important
to retaining land value once mining has ceased.
Mining and land set aside for buffers accounts for nearly half of the rateable land in Muswellbrook,
which has increased the rate load on farmers. A recent landmark court decision ruled that buffer
lands owned by Glencore could not be classified as farmland. This is a decision which could expose
the mining industry to millions of dollars in higher rates and taxes.77
Mining consents
New mining projects and any expansion of existing projects require development consent under
the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (NSW). All new coal mines, mineral sand
mines, proposed mines in environmentally sensitive areas of state significance and mines with
capital investment of more than $30 million are considered state significant development and
require approval from the Minister for Planning. If mining development is approved by the consent
authority, conditions are imposed on the development consent to minimise potential environmental
impacts and optimise the economic and social outcomes for the project.
Stipulation of future land use under mining consents have historically applied on an ad-hoc basis in
the region, such as frequency of new mines approved and length of consent expiries as well as
mitigation strategies for environmental damage and methods for future land use. Current mining
consents with future land use and intended outcomes of those lands (where data is available) are
listed below in Table 4.3.
Today, new coal mining developments require statutory approvals under the Mining Act 1992
(NSW), which sets out the specific conditions with which titleholders must comply. This gives the
Government a range of tools to ensure that rehabilitation is undertaken in a timely manner and in
accordance with agreed commitments. This includes an ability to direct the former holder of a
mining lease to complete rehabilitation works, even after a mining title has been relinquished.
76
Singleton Argus (2017) Singleton’s Villages bear the brunt of Hunter Mining Expansions, accessible at:
<https://www.singletonargus.com.au/story/4714230/the-hunters-waste-lands/>
77
S&P Global (2020) Miners face more taxes after Glencore court loss – Sydney Morning Herald, accessible at:
<https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/miners-face-more-
taxes-after-glencore-court-loss-8211-sydney-morning-herald-59028180>
52
Table 4.3: Consents of currently operating mines
Mine LGA Consent Mitigation/future land use and Void Rehab

Expiry78 intended outcomes79 Area80 Area81
Ashton Mine Singleton 2023 Void to be filled and area to be Nil n.d.
covered with natural vegetation (nil
specified land use).
Bengalla Muswellbrook 2039 One final void will be left, and rest of 270ha 229ha

Mine land will be rehabilitated.
Bulga OC Singleton 2039 A single void with a highwall will 550ha 840ha
Mine remain. The surrounding area will be
revegetated (nil specified land use).
HVO Mine Singleton 2030 The two voids will be backfilled to form 440ha 2,833ha
only one void that is isolated from
surface water sources (nil specified
land use).
Integra mine Singleton 2035 Void to be filled and area to be Nil n.d
covered with natural vegetation (nil
Liddell Mine Singleton 2028 Two hydraulically connected voids will 170ha n.d.
remain upon completion of mining.
Natural woodland corridors will be
restored (nil specified land use).
Mangoola Muswellbrook 2029 One void will remain; however, its 79ha 440ha
Mine and surface footprint will be minimised to
Extension allow for natural habitat and managed
Proposal agriculture.
Mt Arthur Muswellbrook 2026 Three voids will remain, and one will 700ha 1,171ha
Mine be backfilled. The remaining land will
be restored, and the voids will not
impact the other land (nil specified
land use).
Mount Owen Singleton 2037 Three voids will remain, and the rest 313ha 1,263ha
Complex of the land will be rehabilitated with
native vegetation and open grasslands
(nil specified land use).
Mount Muswellbrook 2026 One final void will remain; however, n.d. n.d.
Pleasant the rest of the land will be converted
Mine back to its pre-mining state (nil
Mount Singleton 2036 Four of the pits will be backfilled and n.d. 1,109ha*
Thorley Mine one void will remain. Other land will be
restored to its former state or with
native plants (nil specified land use).
Muswellbrook Muswellbrook 2020 Two final voids will remain, and n.d. n.d.
Coal another may be repurposed for waste
Continuation management. The rest of the land will
Project be restored (nil specified land use).
Ravensworth Singleton 2039 Three final voids will remain. Where 180ha 900ha
Mine possible the land will be returned to its
pre-mining state.
78
Department of Regional NSW (2020)
79
Individual Environmental Impact Statements/Annual Reports
80
Ibid
81
Lock the Gate Alliance (20180, Mind the Gap, accessible at:
<https://assets.nationbuilder.com/lockthegate/pages/5918/attachments/original/1551041721/Mind_the_Gap.
pdf?1551041721>
53
Mine LGA Consent Mitigation/future land use and Void Rehab

Expiry78 intended outcomes79 Area80 Area81
Rix’s Creek Singleton 2040 One final void will remain. The rest of 130ha n.d.
Coal Mine the land will be converted to pastures
Extension and areas of trees over grass (nil
Wambo Mine Singleton 2039 Two final voids will remain from the 260ha 517ha
Wambo project. The rest of the land

will be restored with native vegetation
(nil specified land use).
Warkworth Singleton 2033 Two final voids will remain. The rest of 880ha 1,109ha*
Mine the land will be restored into native
habitat and wildlife corridors (nil
*Note: Mount Thorley and Warkworth mine rehabilitation area could not be broken
Source: Deloitte, DRNSW
Benefits of the rehabilitation process

Mining activities are regulated under state-based mining, development and planning legislation. At
the state level, existing regulatory regimes and proposed operational reforms assess and regulate
mine rehabilitation and closure processes. Commonwealth legislation ensures federal matters are
protected. Where mining and rehabilitation activities intersect with Commonwealth matters,
assessment and approval under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act
1999 (Cth) (EPBC Act) are also required.
For the majority of mines, there are clearly defined objectives for rehabilitation works that are
intended to achieve a range of objectives, including stability and sustainability. General
rehabilitation objectives may vary considerably between sites, or even within a site. Objectives
may involve:
• the restoration or reclamation of the area so that the pre-mining conditions are replicated (75
per cent of mines in Australia use native plant species because the establishment of native
ecosystems gives the greatest chance of self-sustainability)
• rehabilitation to improve the pre-mining conditions (for example, some Hunter Valley
coalmining rehabilitation increases the livestock carrying capacity of the land)
• rehabilitation to a new landform, land capability or final land use (golf courses, wetlands,
plantations, housing subdivisions and recreational playing fields have all been established on
old mining sites).
In some circumstances, lawfully approve environmental considerations may come into conflict with
more recent regional priorities and shifting community attitudes, which have developed since the
consent was originally approved – including the generation of alternate employment opportunities
to replace those lost as a result of the mine closure. In the absence of a regulatory framework and
associated policies which incentivise broader social and economic considerations of the
rehabilitation process, there may be ways to consider land uses for socio-economic purposes
without compromising the environmental outcomes legally required under the consent.
As a result of the current framework and uncertainty, the strategies currently adopted by mining
companies to address and redress land impacts are often ad-hoc and reactive. It is broadly
acknowledged that reform is required, providing enough regulation over the mining sector to
minimise negative impacts and community perceptions. Implementation of regional planning
mechanisms to minimise conflicts may include:
• collaborative inter-governmental decision-making frameworks

• increased role of local governments in decision-making
• monitoring of social impacts of mining, include workforce dynamics and its effect on socio-
demographic factors at a local level, and flow-on effects to housing affordability etc.
54
• investigation of the specific needs of local communities, and integration of planning that
includes future needs at a local level
• planning in closer collaboration with community consultation with the aim of targeting local
needs and values
• monitoring and managing the long-term environmental impacts.
Energy
As with the mining sector, the Upper Hunter is endowed with natural resources that will underpin

the future development of the energy sector within the region, with the energy sector at the
forefront of diversification opportunities. Low-carbon energy initiatives, in the form of renewable
energy are being developed, including wind and solar farms.
The Bayswater and Liddell stations at Muswellbrook and Singleton have a capacity of 2,640MW and
2,000MW respectively, and are owned by AGL Macquarie. AGL has recently announced plans to
convert the Liddell site into a giant battery system when the plant shuts in 2022-23. AGL plans to
install 850MW of large-scale batteries across its operations, with a 500MW battery system at
Liddell, with the first phase to be 150MW by 2024. With this vision in mind, a scoping report has
been lodged with DPIE.
: Energy sector land use, Upper Hunter
Source: Deloitte
The recent Million Jobs Plan report by ‘Beyond Zero Emission’ projects that clean energy and
renewable projects will drive job creation, estimating these projects have the potential to support
some 11,500 jobs per year on average across the Greater Hunter region over the next 10 years to
2030.82 This estimate is largely driven by the potential for a clean steel (hydrogen) industry in the
Hunter, as well as a housing retrofit. By contrast, the Clean Energy Council’s recent Renewable
Energy Jobs Australia report more conservatively estimates the average number of jobs supported
by renewable energy projects across NSW over the period to 2035 to be closer to 9,100 jobs per
year. Additionally, the use of clean energy will assist in developing a sustainable reputation for the
Upper Hunter. Rehabilitated land from decommissioned power stations and potentially mining sites
may be a viable option for clean energy and renewable power sites.83
Further, the CSIRO Energy Centre at Newcastle, as well as the Newcastle Institute for Energy and
Resources, are supporting research to address future sustainability challenges of providing
competitive regional energy resources and infrastructure. A key consideration through this
82
Beyond Zero Emissions, The Million Jobs Plan (June 2020)
<https://www.smartenergy.org.au/sites/default/files/uploaded-content/website-content/bze-million-jobs-
plan_final_web.pdf>.
83
Clean Energy Council, Renewable Energy Jobs in Australia: Stage One (June 2020), report prepared by UTS
Institute for Sustainable Futures
<https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Renewable-Jobs-Australia-ISF%20F.pdf>
55
research is to determine what natural and infrastructure assets are held within the region that
make the Upper Hunter Valley an optimal region for this investment, in comparison to other
regions across the state and nation.
The region is already diversifying its energy generation with low-carbon energy initiatives, in the
form of renewable projects, including a wind farm at Bowmans Creek, east of Muswellbrook, as
well as a solar farm at the former Drayton’s Colliery site.
A notable development includes the potential use of pumped hydro. This involves repurposing

mine voids as water reservoirs to be used as an energy storage system, such as the proposed
system at Bell’s Mountain. During periods of low energy demand, water is pumped from a lower
altitude reservoir to a reservoir based at a higher altitude. As energy demands increase, the water
flows down from the upper reservoir, through a hydro-electric electricity generator to help
supplement the electricity grid, as shown in Figure 4.4. The use of such a system can help mitigate
intermittency issues attributed to renewable energy generation (discussed further in Section
5.2.3).
: AGL pumped hydro diagram
Source: AGL
In addition, a $200 million Kyoto energy park outside Scone (Upper Hunter Energy Park) has been
proposed, featuring 34 wind turbines and 100ha of solar panels with the capacity to power 47,000
homes. Additional clean energy projects in the broader Hunter region are the Vales Point Solar
Project, approved for a $117 million solar energy project on 80haof rehabilitated power station
land, and Summerhill Solar farm at Newcastle.
56
Water security
The future availability of water and the allocation mechanism is a critical constraint to growth and
diversification, and therefore future land uses across the Upper Hunter region. The dependence on
water resources for energy generation, mining, agriculture and equine industries, as well as
residential growth in the region highlights that this is commodity may be a limiting factor to both
prosperity and diversification into the future.
More broadly, the Greater Hunter region contains a range of industries and is home to around 1.1
million people, all with different and competing water usage requirements. The region also

contains internationally significant wetlands in the Hunter River estuary. Approaches to managing
water in the Hunter must address the needs of coal mining, power generation, agriculture,
tourism, local communities and the environment.
The NSW Government’s Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy (GHRWS) has been developed to
consider current and future risks to water security and is designed to manage the region’s water
needs over the next 30 years. The plan also considers drought management.
In summary, the GHRWS recommends the following actions:
• connect water supply infrastructure across the greater hunter, so that water can be transferred
to areas of major growth and critical locations in times of drought
• investigate water reuse schemes for industry to increase the amount of water available
• give greater certainty to industries by preparing plans that set out how water will be shared
and managed during severe droughts
• work with AGL to manage its water requirements as it transitions from thermal power stations
to renewables and contributes to the region’s economic diversification.
• improve environmental outcomes by placing less stress on rivers and groundwater during
times of drought.
The GHRWS specifically outlines that drought security is the primary economic risk facing the
Upper Hunter, demonstrating that the severity of droughts has historically been under-estimated
in DPIE’s integrated water and quality simulation model. If a drought similar to that experienced in
the 1940s was to occur – which on average happens once in every 40 years – general security
water allocations would be reduced to zero for approximately 12 years.
Some of the other main risks addressed by the GHRWS include changes in climatic conditions, and
future expectations around rainfall/evaporation, instances of drought, and increasing demands for
environmental flows and potable drinking water. In addition, the GHRWS also suggests that the
closure of Lindell Power Station in 2022 will not significantly mitigate the risk of failure of supply to
water users.
The State Government has adopted the recommendations contained in the GHRWS and
development of the business cases for the proposed pipelines has commenced. The recommended
infrastructure options will require adjustments to water sharing arrangements and will be reviewed
with the community. More specifically, the GHRWS will continue to inform future conversations and
decisions about the direction of water management in the region and should be considered in any
planning for future economic diversification.
57
4.2 Land use conflicts

Land use in the Upper Hunter region is dominated by agriculture, followed by conservation
initiatives, national parks, and mining, as shown in Chart 4.1.
Chart 4.1: Land uses by category in the Upper Hunter region (share of total land)

Source: NSW Land Use Cadastre (2020)
The co-existence of mining with agriculture and other emerging industries such as eco-tourism
can, and has historically, been difficult to manage. Conflicts arise over competition for land and
other limited resources as well as the impact of mining (for example, noise, visual dis-amenity and
dust) on other activities in adjacent and proximate areas. Further, while residents in mining
communities often express that mining has contributed significantly to the economic development
of their town and is a large employer of local residents, there is a perception that mining sites tend
to rely on a non-resident workforce and negatively impact the local community.84 These concerns
chiefly relate to housing affordability and accessibility as well as strains on local infrastructure and
services,85 although these do not appear to be significant issues across the Upper Hunter as a
whole.
Further conflicts between land uses in the region are also centred on the interaction of major
industries, particularly agriculture (and the diverse requirements of its components) and populated
areas, which require alignment in the approach to management of co-existence of different land
use types.
While documentation of the ongoing conflicts has remained largely absent from statements and
policy documents, The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA) released a position statement in
relation to Upper Hunter land use conflicts in late 2011, and the State Planning Minister
acknowledged ongoing conflicts in the region in 2015.86
Successful land use planning and supporting regulatory frameworks are vital for the ongoing co-
existence, diversification and ultimately growth in prosperity in the Upper Hunter region.
84
Carrington, K., & Pereira, M. (2011) Assessing the social impacts of the resources boom on rural
communities. Rural Society, 21(1), 2–20.
85
Ibid
86
26 November 2015, Planning minister warns of ongoing Hunter land conflicts, Australian Broadcasting
Corporation, available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-26/planning-minister-warns-of-ongoing-
hunter-land-conflicts/6974790
58
Management of the needs for agriculture and mining and demand for valuable water resources
must be acknowledged, as both are significant contributors to the region’s economic success.
Future diversification of the Upper Hunter region’s economy is reliant on ensuring effective
monitoring and market responsiveness to enable diverse land use by growing and emerging
sectors.
4.3 Planning frameworks and documents

There are several key documents providing a framework for land use planning and management of
specific industries in the region, from the State to Local Government levels. In addition, federal
mandates also apply such as those set out by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the
Environment. However, the below list only focuses on State and council documents due to their
specificity. It should be noted that while these require strategic alignment, various documents are
of different vintages and some are in the process of being updated.
State and regional documents and strategies

Earlier this year, the State Government published the Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and
Mining in NSW, outlining the approach the Government expects to take towards the industry in an
effort to provide greater certainty to explorers, investors, industry stakeholders and communities
about the future of coal mining in the state.
The Strategic Statement acknowledges the important role that coal mining plays within New South
Wales, including in the creation of regional opportunities together with the royalties it generates,
while also outlining the need to be proactive in reducing carbon emissions. The key actions
outlined in the Strategic Statement include:
• improving certainty about where coal mining should occur

• supporting responsible coal production in areas deemed suitable for mining
• addressing community concerns about the impacts of coal mining
• supporting diversification of coal-reliant regional economies to assist with the phase-out of
thermal coal mining.
The Strategic Statement is also supported by a map which outlines the areas in New South Wales
coal regions available and excluded from future coal exploration and mining (Figure 4.5).
59
: Map of areas in NSW coal regions available and excluded from future coal exploration and
mining, June 2020
Source: NSW Government (2020), Future of Coal Statement
Additional State Government and regional documents are outlined in Appendix C and highlight the
opportunities and issues that affect the Upper Hunter region; helping to guide the LGA-level
strategic planning statements. Appendix B also contains a selection of LGA documents which have
been developed to address and manage land use planning issues.
The state and regional documents and stratgies provide a framework for the economic pathways to
sustainable growth within the Upper Hunter region.
60
4.4 Considerations for current and future land use

The core theme of land use conflicts in the Upper Hunter region is further development of a
diverse set of industries operating in the region; it encompasses both environmental and economic
concerns. The prosperity of the region is dependent on industries reliant on the soil and coal, but
these do not co-exist or interact easily. The very landscape that is an enabler is also a limitation,
with water security and quality an ongoing concern, coupled with the susceptibility of the region to
severe drought.

Emerging industries, such as eco-tourism, are also impacted by the dominance of mining and the
visibility of this activity in the landscape. Deficiencies and legacy issues from previous land which
has been left un-rehabilitated also present a limitation for some industries, including tourism more
broadly, as well as the lasting environmental impacts.
Industry sectors have differing employment opportunities and levels, with various levels of
contribution to local, state and national economies. High-value industries such as mining have the
capacity to secure land resources for extraction and/or environmental offsets due to their ability to
outbid other local industries and businesses based on their capital endowments.87 This has the
potential to create discord at a local level, unless effective land use planning is implemented to
ensure equity of opportunity which will ultimately facilitate diversification.
Considerations for future land use planning decisions, including potential conflicts are:
• identifying opportunities to improve the allocation of contested resources, notably water,

across industries to maximise economic, environmental and social outcomes
• ensuring consistent approaches to mining, bio-diversity offsets and the treatment of open-cut
voids in order to facilitate a smooth transition to other land uses after the relinquishment of
former mining sites
• increased monitoring of changing market demand, and responsiveness to planning for
sustainable land uses to safeguard the economy
• increased focus on the biodiversity of ecosystems in the region
• mitigation planning for natural hazards such as bushfires, droughts and flooding
• increased incentives for research and development of sustainable energy sources
• ongoing focus on integration of strategic planning, including regional planning at a more local
level, to ensure a timely and balanced approach to land use management which facilitates
economic prosperity.
Land use conflicts will remain a planning challenge in the Upper Hunter as the region continues to
diversify. Without clear and consistent legislation and regulations, the inherent competition for
resources between different sectors may hamper economic diversification and the sustainability
of industries in the future.
87
Planning Institute of Australia (2011) Land Use Conflict in the Upper Hunter Region, accessible at:
<https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/3193>
61
Upper Hunter
futures –
– final
final report
report
Part 2: Scenario

analysis
62
5 Priority industries for the

Upper Hunter

5.1 Identifying priority industries
Definition of priority
Based on a region’s factors of advantage – including levels of access to physical, human and
natural resources – opportunities for specialisation can be identified to help underpin the optimal
allocation of those resources to those industries that will deliver the best economic, environmental
and social outcomes for the region – the priority industries.
The identification of ‘priority’ industries in this report is based on industries which match the
competitive advantages of the Upper Hunter and align with global and national growth outlooks,
regional endowments and existing industries. The focus is on identifying industries that could
drive sustainable economic growth and employment for the Upper Hunter into the future. The need
to identify industries for future specialisation is critically important to support economic
diversification and resilience in the Upper Hunter, particularly given the prospective closure of coal
mines and coal-fired power stations.
While the Upper Hunter is a highly viable potential location for these industries, it is not exclusively
so. Coordinated action across government, business and industry are therefore needed to ensure
that factors of advantage are not offset by barriers to investment attraction and potential losses to
other regions throughout New South Wales and Australia.
In addition, to the priority industries identified, a broad spectrum of other industries will continue
to exist and are important for the broader economic ecosystem in the Upper Hunter.
It is important to recognise the relationship between the priority industries identified and the
resources (e.g. land, labour and capital) that they share. For example, the development of one
industry increases competition for productive resources and may mean that another industry finds
them increasingly difficult to obtain.
Methodological approach
We used both qualitative and quantitative methods to identify industries that the Upper Hunter
should aim to develop going forward.
The framework used to assess the Upper Hunter region’s relative advantages and industry
opportunities focused on three key dimensions:
1. What does the world want?

2. What is the Upper Hunter good at?
3. What is the current sector size (acknowledging the fact that it is easier to diversify into
industries that repurpose or build on existing capabilities and infrastructure)?
This approach leverages the Regional Australia Institute’s [In]Sight: Australia’s Regional
Competitive Index to provide a detailed understanding of the region’s (current) relative factors of
advantage and weakness.
To understand the Upper Hunter’s sources of relative strength, the region is compared against the
national average across the 10 themes and 71 indicators used in the Regional Australia Institute’s
[In]Sight: Australia’s Regional Competitive Index. This analysis formed the development of a
prosperity map for the Upper Hunter (shown below). The prosperity map indicates mining,
agribusiness, accommodation and food services, and utilities as the industries with the
greatest opportunity and relative strength for the Upper Hunter.
63
The prosperity maps also indicate manufacturing, and the transport, postal and warehousing
industries to be of some importance. The role of these industries in the Upper Hunter economy,
however, is primarily one of support, and would likely not otherwise exist at the same scale
without the activity of the mining, agribusiness, and utilities sectors.
It should also be noted that while there is a Defence presence in the Upper Hunter with the
Singleton Military Area establishment, the presence, in terms of permanent and ongoing economic
and employment activity, is small.

: Upper Hunter Prosperity Map
Source: Deloitte, Regional Australia Institute
In order to support the quantitative analysis, stakeholder engagement was undertaken with local
government, regional economic development organisations, business and industry in the Upper
Hunter. To identify prospective priority industries the key themes explored during stakeholder
engagement included:
• What will the Upper Hunter regional economy look like in 10 years?
• What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required?
• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to the advancement of different industries in
the Upper Hunter?
5.2 What, why and when?

As local, national and global demographic and consumption patterns shift, so too will the demand
for products and services. The Upper Hunter has the opportunity to proactively pursue or maintain
diversification opportunities across the industries explored in the remainder of this section.
Coal mining
While coal mining is a significant strength of the Upper Hunter, its future in the region is uncertain.
Mining jobs are exposed to changes in global demand and supply, as well as consent approvals or
extensions.
The international demand for thermal coal (the primary coal product mined and exported from the
Upper Hunter) is expected to remain relatively stable to 2040, despite a recent reduction in
64
demand caused by the economic impacts of COVID-19.88 Regional disparities exist in the outlook
for coal with thermal coal demand from the Upper Hunter’s major export partners predicted to
decline slightly to 2040. The following factors will impact thermal coal demand going forward:
• The speed of transition towards renewable energy sources, with coal steadily being replaced in
the energy mix of advanced economies due to environmental policies and competitive
pressures from renewables and, in some markets, natural gas
• The speed and degree of economic growth in developing countries and regions (e.g. India and

South-East Asia), including development of their own domestic coal mining industries
• The degree of global cooperation in response to climate change.
In addition, supply is being influenced by fluctuating commodity prices, access to capital

(exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19), risk of obtaining permits and social license to operate.
The Upper Hunter is vulnerable to global changes in the market for coal, given its demand is
primarily driven by international demand from Asia (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) where
it is mostly used to generate electricity. The Upper Hunter ending or reducing thermal coal exports
whilst current levels of global demand exist would have a minimal impact on global carbon
emissions, given it would likely continue to be sourced from elsewhere.
A smaller proportion of coal is also mined to meet domestic demand, including for the Upper
Hunter coal-fired power stations. Australia’s energy transition (including the closure of Liddell and
Bayswater power stations) will curb domestic demand for the purpose of electricity generation.
The need for the mining sector to repurpose towards a low-carbon future has resulted in
divestments away from thermal coal operations by some of the larger resource firms. For example,
BHP announced it would seek to exit its Mt Arthur mine in Muswellbrook, the largest individual coal
production site in the Upper Hunter region.89
Despite the local, national and global uncertainties around future demand, the coal mining industry
is currently a significant strength for the Upper Hunter with key growth drivers including:
• coal production in the Upper Hunter is export-driven, currently serving demand from developed
and increasingly, developing economies
• coal produced in the Upper Hunter is of high quality, providing a competitive advantage90
• Newcastle Port and other coal infrastructure provides an integrated and efficient supply chain.
A broader advantage of a strong mining industry in the Upper Hunter is the payment of royalties to
the State Government, which contribute to the funding of essential infrastructure and services.91
Consents for eight operating mines in the Upper Hunter still have over 15 years remaining,
however over 10,500ha of mining land will undergo (or commence) rehabilitation over the next 20
years across the Upper Hunter region based on current consents. It is important to note that
mines can be inactive (e.g. put into maintenance) while still having a consent.
Further, consents for seven operating mines will expire in less than 10 years. Of the seven mines,
the HVO and Mount Arthur mines also the greatest production rate, not just in the Hunter Valley
but in the whole of New South Wales. When these mines are no longer operational, it is expected
that around 24% of the current mining workforce will likely need to be transitioned to new
employment opportunities.
Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter mining industry going forward include:
88
NSW Government, Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW, 2020
89
Australian Financial Review (2020) BHP Confirms Coal Exists as Profits Underwhelm, available at:
<https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-confirms-coal-exits-as-profits-underwhelm-20200818-p55mov>
90
NSW Minerals Council, 2019
91
NSW Government, Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW, 2020
65
Opportunities Challenges
• The economic impacts associated with COVID- • Managing land use conflicts and the
19 will place the NSW economy under rehabilitation of mining land in a manner that
significant pressure. Therefore, it is likely mitigates the long-term effects on soil, water
industries such as mining with a proven track and air.
record of providing employment and • Climate change, leading to reduced rainfall
investment will be supported through policy and increasing temperatures, may be barriers
and regulation. to achieving successful mine rehabilitation.

• Strong regional infrastructure and mining • The cumulative environmental impacts of
supply chain that can be leveraged going mining operations, including mining dust
forward (e.g. rail and port facilities). reducing air quality have caused significant
• Rehabilitation of mines could support the issues in the Upper Hunter.
advancement of other • The industries that increasingly replace mining
investments/diversification (e.g. tourism, will struggle to provide similar employment
waste management, hydropower and and income levels to what the mining industry
agriculture). However, rehabilitation of mines currently provides, leading to reduced
can take as long as 10-15 years which may spending in the community and greater
delay investment/diversification of other likelihood of workers leaving the region.
industries. • Uncertainty surrounding forecast global
• The process of rehabilitating and remediating demand for coal, and Australian policy
mines could generate a range of skilled and settings.
unskilled jobs. The number of jobs this process • Ensuring a ‘just transition’ (e.g. focusing on
generates would be smaller, and lower value, employment and re-training during the
than mining activity currently generates. gradual transition away from mining).
• Mining Equipment, Technology and Services • Increasingly mining processes are being
(METS) - Given the current prevalence of automated which involves the removal of
mining in the region and close proximity to the human labour from the mining process.
University of Newcastle which launched a Additionally, automation in the mining industry
Doctoral Training Centre (DTC) in 2018 may increase the opportunity for remote
(focused on supporting the METS sector operation which could potentially shift
through delivering innovative and employment opportunities from mining sites
transformational technologies and developing (typically in regional communities) to
skilled innovators of the future) the region has metropolitan areas.
favourable characteristics for collaboration
that could allow the capabilities of METS to be
tested, piloted and showcased.
Agribusiness
Agribusiness92 is expected to continue to contribute significantly to the national economy, growing
at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent over the next five years to 2024-25.93
New South Wales and the Upper Hunter form an important part of Australia’s large and diverse
agribusiness sector. In 2018-19, for example, the state’s agribusiness industries contributed 22
per cent (or $9 billion) in value add to Australia’s agricultural sector, representing around 1.5 per
cent of NSW’s gross state product (GRP). Specifically, the Upper Hunter has an established
agricultural sector with primary production across a diverse range of commodities. In 2018-19, the
key commodities by value of production included:
• $125m, beef/sheep livestock for slaughter

• $70m, poultry for slaughter and eggs
• $60m, livestock for dairy
• $10m, hay crop farming
• $6m, nurseries and cultivated turf
• $5m, fruit for wine production.94
92
Agribusiness is defined as Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries sectors, corresponding with the ABS ANZSIC
(1-digit) and National Accounts data. This excludes food processing and manufacturing industry sectors closely
aligned with agricultural production.
93
Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook, June 2020
94
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Value of Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2018 (Catalogue No. 7503.0)
66
Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter agribusiness industry going forward include:
• Opportunity for the region to focus on niche, • Uncertainty around land use and
high quality, high-value, commodities (as has environmental conflicts (including water quality
been achieved with equine). and access rights) with the mining sector, but
• Potential for synergies within the agricultural also with heavy industry and urban

sector across different areas of primary development, are regularly reported by
production, as well as across different industry agribusiness stakeholders as key risks to the
sectors within the region. sector in the Upper Hunter. Downside risks
• Build a critical mass of primary production and include:
develop industry clusters around key o Reputational damage to the region’s
commodities. ‘clean, green’ image.
• Opportunity for the region to increasingly o Deterrent to private and foreign direct
utilise AgTech (e.g. sensors, drones and cloud investment in the sector.
computing) to improve agricultural productivity o Increased land values due to competing
(e.g. better collection and analysis of real time high-value land uses will put pressure on
data). The uptake and investment in AgTech, low-value agricultural production.
however, will likely be dependent on the o Climate change, increased frequency of
quality and ubiquity of the digital infrastructure natural disaster events (fire and
in the region. drought), and water scarcity pose long-
• Shift up the production value-chain and term external challenges to the sector.
capture a greater share of the downstream
manufacturing processes (e.g. food
processing, manufacturing and packaging, and
transport and distribution).95
Equine
Australia’s thoroughbred breeding industry is one of the largest and most reputable in the world –
second only in size to the United States. In 2016-17, Australia’s thoroughbred breeding industry is
estimated to have generated approximately $934 million worth of direct expenditure, contributing
$1.16 billion in (direct and indirect) value add to the national economy.96 The equine industry also
contributed approximately $121 million to Australia’s international exports, exporting bloodstock
for racing purposes to key destination countries such as Hong Kong ($57 million), Singapore ($23
million) and New Zealand ($15 million).97
The equine industry in Australia is estimated to comprise of around 660 stud farms, primarily
concentrated in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. Linked to these farms is a complex
supply chain of ancillary industries, with large shares of expenditure flowing to feed suppliers and
growers (28 per cent), high skill veterinary services (21 per cent), breeding equipment, repairs
and maintenance (25 per cent), transport services (9 per cent), and wages (6 per cent).98
95
NSW Government (2017), Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Project: Action Plan, Upper Hunter
Diversification Task Group
96
Hardy, G. & Limoli, P. (2019), Measurement of economic impact of the thoroughbred breeding industry,
report prepared for AgriFutures Australia
97
Ibid.
98
Ibid.
67
Australia’s thoroughbred breeding and farming services industry revenue is expected to grow at an
average annualised rate of 1.8 per cent over the next five years to reach $1.4 billion by 2024-25.99
However several factors have the potential to impact industry growth going forward. These
include:
• the impacts and costs from climate change and climate variation
• fluctuations in the geopolitical situation that impact on global trade and key export markets,
such as Hong Kong.
• the impacts associated with COVID-19 restricting entry to temporary migrant workers, as well

as limiting access to interstate workers, on which the sector is partially dependent.
The equine industry has been identified as a priority given the Upper Hunter has an ideal climate
for thoroughbred breeding and farming and currently sits at the heart of Australia’s equine
industry with the highest concentration of stud farms (approx. 227) and breeding production in
Australia.100 In 2016-17, the Upper Hunter equine industry accounted for just over $600 million or
52 per cent of the national total economic value add, generating 3,358 jobs in the region.101 The
equine industry in the Upper Hunter forms a complex industry cluster, supported by veterinarian
science and medical services.
Consultations with the equine industry in the Upper Hunter also revealed the industry’s reliance on
skilled migrant labour, with reports that the majority of the region’s current workforce is sourced
from overseas, particularly Ireland. This represents a skills gap issue, for which Training Services
NSW has developed a workforce plan, with implementation currently underway.
Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter equine industry going forward include:
• Equine industry cluster of ancillary and supply- • Land use conflicts between the equine and
chain industries, including: mining industries in the Upper Hunter is
o research and development, veterinary viewed by equine industry stakeholders as a
scientific and medical services major deterrent to private investment.102
o equipment and maintenance, sales, and • Climate change and threats to water quality
transport services and availability from mining and other heavy
o Livestock feed production and Lucerne industry activity.
hay crop farming • Increased competition in international
o Equine-related tourism markets. Factors that could potentially lead to
o Demand for high-skill, high value-add this include increasing costs of production, a
workers and skilled agribusiness labour. high Australian dollar, declining quality of
thoroughbreds and risks of disease.
• Attracting employees to the equine industry in
the region, particularly for entry-level
positions where the wages are not
competitive with those in mining industry.
99
Ibid.
100
NSW Government (2013), Upper Hunter Region Equine Profile, Factsheet No. 6, Department of Primary
Industries
101
Hardy, G. & Limoli, P. (2019), Measurement of economic impact of the thoroughbred breeding industry,
report prepared for AgriFutures Australia
102
NSW Government (2018), Hunter Regional Economic Development Strategy: 2018-2022
68
Energy
The energy sector is undergoing a period of significant transition globally in response to changing
community preferences, environmental policies and climatic conditions in the face of climate
change.
The International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook ‘stated policies scenario’103 forecasts global
energy demand to rise by 1 per cent annually to 2040. Low-carbon sources, led by solar
photovoltaic (PV), are anticipated to supply more than half of this growth, and natural gas,
boosted by rising trade in LNG, to account for another third. Additionally, oil demand is forecast to

flatten out in the 2030s.104
Australia’s utility sector output is set to grow, but below average for the economy, at 1.4 per cent
annually over the next 10 years and renewable energy is expected to become an increasingly large
part of Australia’s energy mix going forward.105
Currently, the Upper Hunter region contributes 4,690MW (or around 35 per cent of the state’s
power needs) through the Liddell and Bayswater coalfired power stations, as well as the Hunter
Valley gas turbines. Despite the prospective closure of these coal-fired power stations, the energy
industry should remain a priority in the region given the proposed development of numerous
renewable projects such as Bowmans Creek Wind Farm, Liverpool Range Wind Farm, Maxwell
Solar Farm and Bells Mountain Pumped Hydro. Additionally, AGL has recently announced plans for
a 500MW battery at Liddell, a site that already has valuable transmission connection into the
grid.106 Battery storage is critical to enhance system flexibility and support the integration of
renewables into the network.
The deployment of renewable generation technology will increasingly occur in many regions
throughout Australia, however current growth drivers for the energy industry in the Upper Hunter
include:
• existing transmission network infrastructure

• strong research linkages with the formation of partnerships and collaborations in the renewable
energy sector (Hunter Energy Transition Alliance and Newcastle Institute for Energy and
Resources (NEIR)).107
Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter energy industry going forward include
(additional opportunities/challenges relating to specific energy subsectors are explored further
below):
• Repurposing and redevelopment at Liddell and • Limited international agreement on
Bayswater sites and rehabilitated mine sites. decarbonisation. The 2021 United Nations
• Utilising existing transmission infrastructure Climate Conference in Glasgow could allow for
for new renewable energy developments in the increased global commitment and coordination
region. on future climate action.
• Helping residents to implement energy • Ensuring a ‘just transition’ (e.g. focusing on
efficiency measures. Lowering the cost of employment and retraining during the energy
energy consumption to households can transition to support communities such as the
provide flow-on benefits to the region’s Upper Hunter who are heavily reliant on coal
economy through allowing redirected spending mining and generation).
towards other goods and services. Additional • Significant and unexpected delays in grid
residential solar and battery prices are connection, which increases investment risk.
becoming increasingly affordable for
consumers.
103
The ‘stated policies scenario’ incorporates policy intentions and targets that have already been announced.
104
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2019
105
Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook, June 2020
106
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2020
107
Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan, 2018
69
Hydro and Battery Energy Technologies

The influx of intermittent renewable generation (solar and wind) in the market can create
challenges in managing the security of the power system, providing opportunities to deploy grid-
scale batteries which have only recently started to become commercially viable in Australia.
Currently in the NEM, six utility scale batteries are operating (all within South Australia and
Victoria). This number is expected to increase going forward as revenue streams for batteries
continue to evolve.
Hydroelectricity currently produces approximately five to seven per cent of Australia’s total

electricity supply, with over 100 operating hydroelectric power stations.108 Three major pumped
hydro systems are also connected to the grid, pumped hydro uses water reservoirs as a way of
storing energy.
Opportunities and challenges for the Upper Hunter regarding the uptake of these energy
technologies going forward include:
• Ability to leverage existing grid access and • Heighted uncertainty surrounding project
current industry skills in the region. financing due to COVID-19 – potentially causing
• Improving commercial attractiveness and project delays and cancellations.
revenue streams for batteries.
• Decommissioned mining sites present an
opportunity for water reservoirs sites and are
especially viable for pumped hydro if two bodies
of water can be stored at different elevations.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen is the most prevalent common chemical in the universe and has many uses such as fuel
for transport, heating, storing electricity and as a raw material in industrial processes. It can be
produced using renewable energy. The Australian hydrogen industry is still in its infancy, with a
number of feasibility and planning studies occurring. Most notably, the National Hydrogen Strategy
(2019)109 has been developed to drive the growth of a clean, innovative and safe Australian
Hydrogen Industry through providing a pathway for coordinated investment.
The growing international and domestic interest in the hydrogen sector is underpinned by the
following trends:
• cost of renewables – decline in the cost of wind and solar photovoltaic (pv) generation in
recent years has opened the prospect of large-scale production of ‘green’ hydrogen
• industrial decarbonisation – need for industry, heavy transport and hard to abate sectors to
examine and assess decarbonisation strategies
• gas infrastructure decarbonisation – hydrogen can be transported using existing gas
infrastructure through blending with limited adaptation and costs
• export opportunity – international demand for hydrogen as a fuel source has potential in the
medium to long term.110
Current annual global demand for hydrogen is forecast to be approximately 70 Million tonnes per
annum (Mtpa). The forecasted figures for 2030 range from an additional 2.1 Mtpa to 8.8 Mtpa.111
Recent analysis from Deloitte shows that domestic production of hydrogen could range from as
high as 19.8 Mt by 2050 (where all aspects of industry development are favourable for hydrogen),
108
Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Hydropower and Pumped Hydro Energy Storage, 2020.
109
COAG Energy Council, Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, 2019
110
Deloitte Australian and Global Hydrogen Demand Growth Scenario Analysis, November 2019
111
Ibid.
70
to as low as 1.4 Mt in a scenario where there is rapid technological development in

electrification.112
The development of a hydrogen industry is subject to a longer time horizon compared to a number
of the other industries identified as potential priorities in the region. The Upper Hunter is
positioned to take advantage of a ‘hydrogen-based future’, with some favourable characteristics to
attract investment in hydrogen – such as its existing industry mix, proximity to established energy
infrastructure and nearby deep-water port facilities.

However, all decisions to act in an uncertain and largely undeveloped industry come with the need
to accept increased risk (e.g. technical, finance, stranded asset and safety). Current risks include
policy and technology uncertainty and cost effectiveness compared to other energy technologies.
Opportunities and challenges in the development of a hydrogen industry in the Upper Hunter
include:
• Facilitate the creation of industrial hubs with • The ability of hydrogen to replace other
multiple uses and have local governments technologies and processes will be dependent
provide foundation loads through some vehicle on its cost effectiveness.
usage. • Regulations, standards and acceptance will
• Proximity to key infrastructure assets: also be a hurdle for the industry in Australia as
o Utilising the proposed Hunter Gas they are currently in their infancy.
Pipeline for ‘pipeline blending’, reducing • Policy and technology uncertainty.
the cost of building dedicated hydrogen • Significant water usage required as a
pipelines. feedstock.
o Port of Newcastle – deep water port
necessary to export large volumes of
hydrogen.
o Electricity transmission network
infrastructure.
• Significant potential relating to the demand of
hydrogen as a fuel source by economies such
as China, Japan, and South Korea (Australia
already has a strong existing trade
relationship with these nations).
• Large land area, increasing renewable energy
sources and water to support new hydrogen
developments.
• ‘Green steel’ using hydrogen113 instead of coal
to transform iron ore to iron metal.
Bioenergy
Bioenergy is a type of renewable energy that requires biomass (organic renewable materials) to
produce heat, electricity, biogas and liquid fuels. Bioenergy technology is well developed globally
(especially throughout Europe where it represents roughly 10 per cent of total energy
consumption114) and is beginning to play an increasing role in Australia – contributing
approximately 1.4 per cent of Australia’s total electricity generation by fuel type in 2018.115
The potential for bioenergy has been recognised by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency
(ARENA) which is currently in the process of developing a ‘Bioenergy Roadmap’ to inform
investment and policy decisions in Australia into the future. This roadmap will be crucial to inform
112
Ibid.
113
Grattan Institute, ‘Start with Steel’, May 2020
114
Australian Renewable Energy Agency, ‘Bioenergy and energy from waste’, 2020
115
Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Australian Energy Update 2019, Australian
Government
71
the next series of investment and policy decisions in the bioenergy sector in Australia and should
be considered within the Upper Hunter once it has been released.
Similar to hydrogen, the development of a bioenergy industry in the Upper Hunter would be a
longer-term prospect. The Upper Hunter is already taking steps to explore the capabilities of
bioenergy. This is demonstrated by the recent funding ($4.6 million) of the Hunter Pilot Biorefinery
by the State Government under the Growing Local Economies Fund. However, it should be noted
that the Upper Hunter does not have unique characteristics which would make it an obvious region
to develop a bioenergy industry in comparison to other regions across Australia. Additionally,

throughout the consultations associated with this project, multiple stakeholders questioned the
sustainability and availability of feedstocks in the region, which is a necessity for a sustainable
bioenergy industry.
Opportunities and challenges in the development of a Bioenergy industry in the Upper Hunter
include:
• The Upper Hunter region currently produces • Industry still in its ‘infancy’ in Australia, with
various feedstocks that can be used for ARENA’s Bioenergy Roadmap likely to identify
bioenergy, such as municipal waste and waste the role of the sector and the necessary
streams from the agricultural and forestry investment and policy decisions going forward.
sectors. • Different industry stakeholders currently
• Bioenergy (fuels or electricity) are a pushing specific agendas.
complement to viticulture and other • Stakeholder engagement flagged scepticism
agribusiness. around the long-term viability of feedstocks in
• Increasing interest in the capabilities of a the Upper Hunter. Sustainable feedstocks and
‘circular economy’ – allows for greater strong governance will be critical for the
utilisation of waste. industries development.
• Close proximity to the University of Newcastle
makes the Upper Hunter a favourable location
for bioenergy ‘trials’ to test the capabilities of
bioenergy in Australia.
72
Tourism
Tourism is facilitated by both domestic and international visitors and supports employment and
economic activity across a range of sectors including accommodation and food services.
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism was a fast-growing industry globally and in Australia.
International tourist arrivals grew by 4 per cent in 2019 to reach 1.5 billion worldwide, although
growth slowed compared to previous years due to uncertainty surrounding Brexit, geopolitical and
trade tensions, and slowing economic growth.116 In Australia, international tourist arrivals
increased by 2 per cent in 2019 to 8.7 million, while domestic overnight trips increased by 12 per

cent to 117.4 million.117
Regional dispersal has often been cited as a challenge in attracting a significant portion of
international visitors. The Hunter region is a common day-trip for international visitors and is one
of the top five regional destinations for both domestic and international leisure visitors. However,
this is inclusive of the Hunter Valley, with travel patterns suggesting most travel is within the
Lower Hunter rather than Upper Hunter region.118 Specifically, the key drawcards for the Upper
Hunter include national parks, equine activities, food and wine, and heritage. Increasing visitation
to the Upper Hunter should be a priority with general recommendations to do so including
educating visitors about local offerings, demystifying travel time and distances, helping to put the
pieces of the journey together.
COVID-19 led to a complete shutdown of Australia’s tourism sector in March 2020. The pathway to
reopening remains relatively uncertain. While some domestic (mostly intrastate) tourism has
recommenced, interstate travel is sluggish as many borders remain closed and the COVID-19
recovery remains uncertain.
Recognising that the tourism industry is subject to uncertainty in the short term, the following
opportunities and challenges for Upper Hunter tourism take a medium to long term (5-10 year)
view.
• Potential for the region to define its offering • Lack of tourism drivers (with the exception of
and reason for visit by leveraging its natural equine tourism) compared to nearby regions
advantages (significant advertising investment such as unique attractions or experiences.
likely required). • Long distance from Sydney, a key source of
• Potential to connect tourism to existing visitation in terms of local population and
industries (e.g. farm stays, winery stays). international travellers, with car the main
• Close proximity to Newcastle airport. transport mode.
• Low capacity of tourism infrastructure (e.g.
limited accommodation catering to different
market segments).
116
United Nations World Tourism Organisation, World Tourism Barometer, 2020
117
Tourism Research Australia, National visitor survey results, 2020
118
Deloitte Access Economics, ‘Understanding visitor regional dispersal in Australia’, 2019
73
6 Developing a ‘roadmap’ for

the future

The economic future of the Upper Hunter is highly uncertain
and could follow a number of different pathways based on
global, national and local trends and disrupters. A scenario-
based approach to understanding these potential pathways is a
highly effective framework when considering uncertainty.
6.1 A scenario-based approach

As explored in earlier chapters, the current economic and social prosperity of the Upper Hunter is
largely being determined by the mining and agribusiness sectors. The region's future will be
determined by a number of factors, including:
• The extent to which it can evolve and adapt, responding to global and domestic market
conditions, economic policies and geopolitical developments.
• How it manages competition for land, water and environmental resources and the
associated trade-offs.
• How it supports industry with economic and social infrastructure.
• How it supports and promotes active participation of its residents in the community and
employment to achieve inclusive growth.
It is not possible to forecast with any certainty the most likely long-term future of the region’s key
industries – in terms of economic output, industry size, and employment. However, based on
global trends the transition away from mining non-renewable resources is – at some point in the
future – inevitable. While there remain substantial resources in the ground, and the high quality of
coal from the region may delay that transition relative to other regions, it will happen eventually.
While economic and industry forecasts improve the capacity for considered planning and allow for
better decision-making, usually these represent a best estimate of the most likely future and any
degree of confidence declines significantly with an increase in time over the period of a forecast.
As the COVID-19 global pandemic has demonstrated, highly unlikely and unimagined events do
occur and, as a result, forecasts and outlooks can change quickly.
This report therefore uses a scenario-based approach to develop a future ‘roadmap’, with a
corresponding proposed set of actions for the region aligning with each scenario. The aim of this
approach is to broadly identify a set of possible futures from across a spectrum and provide an
indicative understanding about what these futures might look like. This includes identifying the
factors and growth drivers that will likely determine these futures and the potential implications for
the Upper Hunter’s current key industry sectors.
We have chosen three scenarios that best represent what might occur in the Upper Hunter, under
varying circumstances. We have not probability-weighted these scenarios, given the inherent
uncertainty of any of future economic trends ensuing exactly as forecast. Rather, the scenarios will
allow for the actual pathway to be signposted, and appropriate responses enacted.
74
The three scenarios considered for the purpose of this report are:
• Limited change – coal mining continues to dominate the economic landscape of the region,
with current investment trends and trade-offs around land, water, and environmental
constraints favouring the mining sector over other sectors, such as agribusiness and tourism.
As a result, the current economic and industrial composition of the region is maintained over
the short to medium-term, delaying a transition or diversification away from mining for
another 20 to 30 years.
• Transition – the economic and industrial composition of the region begins to shift and

diversify over the short to medium-term, as coal mining begins the process of a long-run ‘wind
down’ and there is an concerted transition favouring the growth of other existing and emerging
industry sectors.
• Shock – coal mining in the region unexpectedly experiences a sharp and permanent
contraction, resulting in a rapid and disruptive shift in the economic and industrial composition
of the economy over the medium-term. Over the longer term, the economy shrinks as
policymakers respond reactively (rather than proactively), growth in other existing and
emerging industries fails to materialise, and people leave the Upper Hunter region in response
to limited employment opportunities and outcomes.
The following provides a brief description for each scenario, providing a lens for the roadmap and
the formulation of a potential set of actions to help policymakers either avoid or better prepare for
these imagined scenarios.
The following also details a set of potential indicators and measure for use by policymakers to help
monitor and identify the economic conditions and potential implications of each scenario.
6.2 Limited change scenario

In this scenario, the current economic and industrial composition of the Upper Hunter economy is
generally maintained, and coal mining continues to dominate the region’s economic
landscape for the next 20 to30 years as existing mines expand or extend their lifespan, and
mining consents are renewed and new ones approved. While there may be short-term fluctuations
in the supply and/or demand for coal – such as in response to COVID-19 – these are considered to
be cyclical in nature rather than structural.
The maintenance of mining being the key industry within the Upper Hunter would be supported
by ongoing global demand for thermal coal, particularly from emerging economies.119 In
addition, there is continued inaction on climate change and related policies both domestically
and globally – and limited investment in low-emission technologies and renewables.
In turn, it is reasonable to assume that mining would continue to employ a significant

portion of the local labour force as the industry maintains its dominance within the
region. Continued mining investment would generate additional construction jobs, as well as
potential growth in auxiliary service and supply chain industries, such as the METS sector.
However, expected technological advances in the mining sector over the coming decades,
combined with falls in the costs of technologies, may result in a lower rate of jobs growth than
current trends as mining companies increasingly automate production processes. This is also likely
to shift the skills-demand profile of miners towards employing a larger share of highly skilled and
‘tech savvy’ workers.
: Limited change scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining
119
NSW Government (2020) ‘Strategic Statement on Coal Exploration and Mining in NSW’
75
Implications for the Upper Hunter

Under the limited change scenario, the implications of ongoing mining activity for the Upper
Hunter are mixed. While employment in mining is likely to be sustained over the longer term,
the mix of job opportunities in mining will likely shift as investment in automation
technologies is expected to create demand for differently skilled workers to those that
exist currently. This will likely place many existing workers at a disadvantage, while favouring
the next generation of workers should the relevant training and education opportunities be
available.

Further, the automation of mine sites has the potential to enable many current jobs to be
undertaken remotely, allowing for the relocation of jobs to remote operations centres and reducing
the need for workers at mine sites. Again, this will likely disadvantage the existing Upper Hunter
workforce, and may result in the Upper Hunter not benefiting from many of the new skilled
employment opportunities created by mining.
The loss of job opportunities for low and unskilled workers in mining, however, may be
offset by increases in labour demand in industries associated with the ongoing existence of a
strong mining industry within the region, such as construction and METS industries. Irrespective,
this scenario will likely call for additional retraining and upskilling support to assist displaced
mining and agribusiness workers gain employment in new occupations.
The continued dominance of mining is also likely to constrain the growth of other industry
sectors in the Upper Hunter, limiting economic and industrial diversification of the region. This is
expected to involve trade-offs in the allocation of land, water and environmental resources,
increasing the competitive pressures for these resources on other industry sectors – specifically
agribusiness and industries associated with agricultural production, such as food manufacturing,
transport and distribution, equipment manufacturing, and commercial and professional services.
These factors will further diminish the availability of employment opportunities for low, unskilled
and entry-level workers.
A further downside risk from the maintenance of mining is the potential reputational damage
to the region’s ‘clean and green’ image. This has the potential to further adversely affect the
growth opportunities in agribusiness, as well as in the tourism services sector. Health risks
associated with increased fugitive carbon emission and coal dust pollution associated with mining
activity also has the potential to adversely affect the region’s population growth – as health
concerns drive away existing residents and deter new ones.
In this scenario, the same drivers determining the demand for coal will also likely curtail the future
demand for renewables. As a result, the potential for the region to leverage the remaining and
underutilised electrical transmissions infrastructure assets (following the planned closure of the
Liddell and Bayswater coal fired power stations) for new renewable energy generation or
storage projects are limited.
6.3 Transition scenario

In this scenario, coal mining operations in the Upper Hunter begin to gradually ‘wind
down’ over a 10 to 20 year period, resulting in an orderly and coordinated shift in the industrial
composition towards a diversified economy favouring agribusiness, tourism and other emerging
industry sectors.
This scenario is based on the current expectation of the expiration of mining consents in the region
(as illustrated in Chart 6.1), as well a continuation of current trends driving the transition away
from coal mining. These include:
• decreasing global demand for thermal coal for energy

• increased investment and supply of lower cost renewable energy
• growing international consensus on climate change and the implementation of greenhouse
gas emission abatement targets, and the introduction of carbon pricing.
The decline in direct employment in coal mining in the Upper Hunter may also be accelerated by
the adoption of automation technologies (as discussed in the Limited Change scenario).
76
Chart 6.1: Indicative (FTE) employment loss estimates based on mine closures at consent expiry or
extension, as at June 2020

Source: Deloitte, Coal Services (FTE employment estimates), DRNSW (consent expiry estimates)
Note: Estimates are derived from current employment numbers at Upper Hunter mine sites as at June 2020. These estimates
should be treated as indicative and do not consider future cyclicality of the mining sector; future trends that might increase or
decrease employment intensity (e.g. automation); or expansion/extension of existing mine sites or the development of new
ones. The FTE employment figures also take in the period of COVID-19 and may be lower than otherwise due to lower
international demand for thermal coal experienced during this period.

In response to prevailing forces detailed under this scenario, coal mining in the Upper Hunter is
expected to slowly withdraw and shrink both in terms of its contribution to local economic output
and employment, as price and quantity demanded falls and marginal production costs increase. In
turn, the gradual transition away from mining is expected to be replaced by several other
industry sectors.
As mining winds down, competitive pressures from mining on other industries for land use, water,
and environmental resource allocations would be expected to ease. Reductions in the cost of these
resources to other industries would result in the reallocation of these resources to their next
highest value use – which may include agricultural purposes such as equine, livestock, poultry,
cropping, and horticultural production. Over the medium to longer term, former buffer lands
could be used to support agriculture, while rehabilitated mining lands could be used to
support the development of other industries – such as biofuel energy generators or
renewable energy hydro or battery storage facilities.
The process of rehabilitation and remediating mine sites may also create another source of
employment for construction industry jobs, benefitting low and unskilled workers. The
rehabilitation process can take anywhere between five and ten years. As a result, a gradual
closure of mines across the region could generate a small number of construction jobs
for up to two decades, together with other occupations involved in the rehabilitation of mine sites,
such as geotechnical engineers, soil scientists and revegetation experts. There may also be scope
to work closely with the Indigenous community through the rehabilitation of mine sites.
The growth of an increasingly diverse agricultural sector is also likely to increase the value
proposition of the region to other auxiliary and complementary industry sectors. These include
those downstream in the agribusiness supply-chain – such as food and beverage manufacturing,
77
transport and distribution, equipment manufacturing, and commercial and professional services,
and the tourism services sector.
The gradual withdrawal of mining would lower the health risks from air pollution and improve the
reputational image of the region. This has the potential to further enhance tourism opportunities
and visitations to the region, as well as attract new residents, particularly young families. The
increased and diverse opportunities for new businesses, coupled with increased housing
affordability and other lifestyle factors are likely to influence the decisions of young families to
locate to the Upper Hunter.

A downside risk from the withdrawal of mining from the region is the significant loss of high-
income jobs. This is likely to have a disruptive effect on the lives of many local residents. While a
gradual withdrawal of mining would alleviate this pressure and allow time for the local labour
market to digest an increased supply of similarly skilled workers, there may be some who chose to
relocate outside of the Upper Hunter, particularly as many of the new jobs available in other
industries are unlikely to pay the high salaries former mine workers once commanded. For former
mine workers who choose to stay and work in other industries, this will require a recalibration of
their employment expectations and possibly a reduction in their standard of living. There are also
likely to be implications for the broader local economy, with a significant portion of the population
having less disposable income to spend on consumption (e.g. retail trade) within the region.
Critical to the success of this transition will involve re-tooling the education system locally to
prepare the next generation of young workers for an economy where mining plays a minor role, as
well as supporting mid-career and older mining workers to reskill, find an alternate occupational
pathway, or establish a business of their own. Opportunities for action around education and
skilling are explored further in section 7.4.
An upside risk for many in the region from the gradual rebalancing and diversification of the
economy is the likely fall in income inequality across industries. This has the potential to reduce
living costs, housing affordability and other social pressures that typically accompany such
inequality. However, it is also likely to result in lower house prices across the region, lowering the
wealth of current homeowners, adversely affecting their mortgage debt obligations and planned
savings for retirements.
: Transition scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining
6.4 Shock scenario

In this scenario, the Upper Hunter economy unexpectedly experiences a sharp and
permanent contraction due to the sudden withdrawal of coal mining. This results in a rapid
and disruptive shift in the economic and industrial composition of the economy over the medium-
term. Given the unexpected pace of the contraction, the policies and programs implemented to
assist the region in the transition process are reactive rather than proactive, and over the long-
term may provide sub-optimal outcomes. Growth of the other existing and emerging
industries fails to materialise to fill the gaps in the economy, and people relocate away from
the Upper Hunter in response to limited employment opportunities and outcomes.
The premise for this scenario is a rapid structural shift affecting global demand for thermal
coal or some other ‘black swan’ event permanently disrupting coal mining activities in the Upper
Hunter. Possible reasons for such a sharp decline could include:
• accelerated global action on climate change and emissions reduction

• the sudden emergence of a new and cheap source of energy through technological
breakthrough
78
• a sudden and unexpected spike in mining production costs in Australia

• an unexpected and catastrophic natural disaster event permanently affecting mining
infrastructure in the Upper Hunter.

Under this scenario, coal mining is expected to rapidly withdraw from the Upper Hunter
economy over a five to ten year period. In the short run, there would be a mass
displacement of workers and high unemployment due to a sluggish response from other

industry sectors in the economy.
The rapid withdrawal of mining would be expected to disrupt the livelihoods of former mining
workers. In turn, there is a risk of rapid depopulation across the region as there is an exodus of
residents leaving the region in pursuit of employment opportunities, especially younger residents
and families with children. Such an exodus would further exacerbate the economic downturn in the
region, putting downward pressure on housing prices, lowering the household wealth of
homeowners in the region.
After a period of hardship, however, the local economy and unemployment would be expected to
stabilise, albeit at a much small size in terms of gross regional product (GRP) and employment. As
in the previous scenario, the withdrawal of mining would result in the reallocation of land, water,
and environmental resources for its next highest value use – which may include agricultural
purposes such as equine, livestock, poultry, cropping, and horticultural production. The process of
rehabilitation and remediation of mine sites is also likely to create additional construction jobs, and
likely to benefit workers displaced from mining. Further, there will likely be opportunities arising
from new investments in renewable energy storage projects leveraging the region’s underutilised
electrical transmission infrastructure. In this scenario, however, the growth of other industry
sectors over the longer term is expected to be muted and, in comparison to the Transition
scenario, the employment opportunities for displaced mining workers remain fewer and less
attractive.
: Shock scenario – expected timing of transition away from mining
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6.5 Monitoring economic trajectory

Having defined a series of potential economic futures, as time progresses it is important to be able to identify which economic scenario is likely to
transpire. The table below outlines a range of different measures which can help to determine which scenario is indicated by present circumstances.
Regular monitoring of these indicators, such as through an interactive or regularly updated dashboard, can assist in providing insight into when certain
actions (as outlined in the next section) should be implemented. In particular, understanding whether shifts in each indicator are cyclical or structural is
important to determining the potential future path (and may not be evident for some time). Each indicator is separately identified as either a lead or lag
indicator, with further information provided on ‘what to look for’ to determine which scenario is most likely to eventuate. Indicators should be
considered in combination, as a single indicator is unlikely to give specific guidance on the identification of which scenario is most representative of
the current circumstances.
Table 6.1: Leading and lagging indicators to monitor the Upper Hunter region’s economic trajectory
Lead/lag Limited change Transition Shock

indicator
Demand drivers and outlook
Global climate action Lead • Global action on emissions targets • Global consensus reached on • Global consensus reached on
and quotas is delayed/deferred emissions targets and quotas, emissions targets and quotas,
resulting in a gradual transition resulting in a swift transition away
away from coal from coal
Global energy demand Lead • Ongoing global demand for • Increase in expected global energy • Stagnation/decline in expected
forecasts thermal coal demand from renewables global energy demand (all sources)
Thermal coal supply Lead • Decline in thermal coal production • Thermal coal production and • International production and
outlook from competitor and investment internationally investment internationally remains investment in thermal coal
countries (increasing market share of constant (placing pressure on increases (placing pressure on
Australian producers) Australian producers) Australian producers)
Thermal coal prices Lead • Spot and future prices for thermal • Sustained downward trend in spot • Sharp and prolonged decline in
coal remain stable/increase and future prices for thermal coal spot and future prices for thermal
coal
Capital investment pipeline
Local capital investment Lead • Capital investment increases or • Capital investment declines • Sale of fixed and mobile capital at
($) remains constant • Growth in agricultural and farm mine sites
• Decline in agricultural and farm capital expenditure • Agricultural and farm capital
capital expenditure • Growth in capital expenditure on expenditure remains unchanged
accommodation and tourism-
related services
Mining consent Lead • New consent applications and • No new consent applications or • Extinguishment of existing
applications renewals renewals; rehabilitation and sale of consents; rehabilitation and sale of
expired sites unexpired mine sites
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indicator
Local foreign investment Lead • Increase in foreign investment in • Foreign investment in existing coal • Decline/withdrawal of foreign
existing and new coal mine sites mine sites remains unchanged investment from mining
• Decline/withdrawal of foreign • Increase in foreign investment in • Foreign investment in agribusiness
investment from agribusinesses agribusinesses remains unchanged
• Increase in foreign investment in
emerging industries (e.g.
renewable energy and/or food
manufacturing)
Production inputs
Local land use and prices Lag • Increased sales of agricultural land • Increase in sales/leasing of buffer • Increase in sales/leasing of buffer
and decline in sale prices lands and rehabilitated mine lands lands and rehabilitated mine lands
for use for agriculture and by at declining sale prices
emerging industry, while prices
remain steady
Local water price and Lead • Increase in water prices and • Increase in trading activity, but • Collapse of water market and
allocations allocation of purchases to mining with steady prices, and increase in prices
share of allocations to agribusiness
and emerging industries
Domestic emissions Lead • No emissions reduction target or • Gradual increase to production • Sudden and sharp increase
target/pricing policies pricing constraint/cost imposed on costs for coal miners and livestock production costs due to the
coal mining and livestock producers due to the introduction introduction of aggressive
agricultural sectors of emissions reduction and pricing emissions reduction and pricing
policies policies affecting coal mining and
agribusiness
Local labour market Lag • Steady wage growth but stagnant • Steady wage growth but declining • Sudden and sharp decline in
(employment and employment growth in mining, employment in mining, mining employment, accompanied
wages) accompanied by declining accompanied by employment by stagnant employment and wage
employment and wage stagnation growth and moderate wage growth growth in other industry sectors
in other industry sectors in other industry sectors
Technology adoption
Adoption of Lead • Key coal consuming countries • Increased investment by key coal • Key coal consuming countries
renewable/alternate (both current and prospective) consuming countries (both current (both current and prospective)
energy tech. in key continue to invest in coal-fired and prospective) in rapidly adopt new and alternate
global coal markets energy capacity renewable/alternate energy energy technology
generation technologies
Mining automation tech. Lead • Coal miners increasingly invest in • Coal miners increasingly invest in • Upper Hunter coal mines cease
investment and adopt automation and remote and adopt automation and remote production or are closed prior to
working technologies at their mine working technologies at their mine the implementation of new
sites sites technologies
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indicator
Renewable energy tech. Lead • Investment in renewable energy • Investment growth in renewable • Expected growth in investment in
investment technologies in the Upper Hunter is energy technologies in the Upper renewable energy technologies in
in line with current expectations Hunter exceeds current the Upper Hunter fails to transpire
expectations
Digital connectivity Lead • Increase in infrastructure • Increase in infrastructure • No additional infrastructure
investment investment in digital connectivity investment in digital connectivity investment in digital connectivity
technologies technologies technologies
AgTech investments Lag • Low investment and adoption of • Increased investment and adoption • Low investment and adoption of
AgTech of AgTech AgTech
Socioeconomic
Economic output and Lag • Growth in both gross regional • Moderate growth in gross regional • Stagnation/decline in gross
value product and gross value add of product, accompanied by growth in regional production, accompanied
mining industry, accompanied by the gross value add for agriculture, by sharp decline in mining gross
stagnant growth of other industry tourism, utilities industries, but value add, and slow moderate
sectors stagnation/decline in mining growth in agribusiness
Business turnover and Lag • Increase in the rate of business • Increase in the exit rate for • Increase in the rate of business
creation exits in industries not associated businesses associated with mining, exits across the board
with mining sector, accompanied accompanied by increase in rate of
by growth in business creation in business creation in other industry
industries associated with mining segments
Primary and middle Lead • Stagnation/decline in local school • Growth in local school enrolments • Rapid decline in local school
school enrolments enrolments (as current population (as families relocate to the region) enrolments (as families depart the
trends continue) region)
Housing market turnover Lag • Steady market listings and • Steady market listings and • Increased market listings, but
and prices turnover, but increase in house turnover, but stagnation in house slowing turnover and decline in
prices prices house prices
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Upper Hunter
futures –
– final
final report
report
Part 3: Diversification

roadmap
83
7 Action plan for inclusive

growth

From data analysis, desktop research and stakeholder consultations, the following action plan for
inclusive growth has been formulated. As shown in Figure 7.1, there are eight key themes that
have been identified as areas that need to be addressed to ensure the Upper Hunter’s
diversification considers equity for all. These themes are further streamlined into key actions
which describe what could be done (with examples where relevant) and how they meet community
need, with each action mapped to an economic, social and/or land use domain.
As seen in the figure below, these themes (concentric circles) overlap. This indicates that
addressing actions in each theme create flow-on impacts in other themes. For example, addressing
transport in theme 6 has the potential to impact education access and social service access
addressed in themes 4 and 5. Central to any growth is the ability of the key stakeholders to lead
and drive collaboration to lay foundations for the future, which has been placed in the centre of the
figure as a result.
Each of these actions have been mapped at the end of each theme against the scenarios identified
in section 6. These are to provide a gauge on the temporality of these actions, dependent on the
scenario that is undertaken.
: Action Plan Themes
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7.1 Theme 1: Foundations for the future

The Upper Hunter region’s existing governance network lays the foundations for supporting the
region through an economic transition. As explored further in Chapter 8, the development of a
‘best practice’ governance structure that is deeply connected to the needs of the local community
and united under a clear policy rationale is integral to success. Ultimately, sustainable economic
growth is the result of efficiently developing and leveraging people (and their skills, knowledge,
and culture) and the structural assets and economy.

Consultations identified that while stakeholders understand there is an existing governance
network to support transition, the roles, responsibilities and clear lines of accountability for
decision-making are seemingly opaque; and engaging with this structure for those external-to-
government has been a challenge for some.
In any economic transition, the capacity of the governance structure and its ability to function
quickly can pose a risk. A lack of clarity, or inability to make timely decisions could stifle a
transition. Disparate governance structures risk frequent and high-volume decision-making that
are at odds with each other. This would be likely to occur when the governance structure is
cumbersome and slow-moving. As every transition is different, finding the right balance can take
time and should be developed and tested in line with the needs of communities and businesses.
In this respect, there is scope to improve, test and refine the existing framework in the Upper
Hunter to better prepare the region for future transition in terms of streamlining for efficient and
timely decision-making so that the governance can prepare and respond quickly as economic
change accelerates. Importantly, ensuring that the governance structure can support the needs of
the Upper Hunter will further support the other actions outlined in this Chapter.
Action 1.1: Load test the existing governance framework

The next step for preparing the region for success in the future, irrespective of what that future
might look like, is to build on existing networks (i.e. working groups, committees and
organisations) and understand how well placed these bodies are to interact, collaborate and
support the preparation of the region for transition (such as attracting new investment) or respond
to the different types of transition events that might arise (such as those outlined in Chapter 6).
The governance network should be prepared, proactive and accountable.
In the event of a transition shock, such as a sudden loss of jobs in the local mining industry (such
as that outlined in the Case Study: Victorian Government, Latrobe Valley Authority in Chapter 8),
the availability of the governance network for the provision of support and rapid decision-making is
crucial to success. Based on experience in Victoria, as economic transition accelerates the
government must respond quickly and decisively, engaging at a local level with community and
industry stakeholders. To ensure the existing governance structure can support and facilitate this
process, the effectiveness of the Upper Hunter Region’s governance framework could be ‘load
tested’.
During a transition shock, the volume of engagement with the local community increases
significantly; this ‘load test’ would ascertain the capacity of the existing network to cope with such
a shock. ‘Load testing’ the existing governance framework would consider actions to ensure
regional actors have the capacity to engage with large numbers of people, can utilise the region’s
online presence appropriately and have direct channels clearly signposted for business.
Who? This process could be undertaken by existing supporting governance bodies, including the
LGAs, and supported and overseen by the State Government as a facilitator.
When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken by the end of 2021.
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Action 1.2: Streamline and improve engagement and communication of

outcomes
There is a perception among local stakeholders that the existing governance structure is opaque,
and that the relationship between previous stakeholder engagement and direct or visible outcomes
has been difficult to ascertain.
In addition to ‘load testing’ the existing governance structure, continuous efforts should be made
to streamline the governance network to ensure that the structure can support efficient decision-
making and, principally, provide clear lines of responsibility and accountability in the eyes of the

local community and business. Streamlining the existing governance structure for efficiency and
accountability should seek to:
• Align responsibility for outcomes with groups best placed to support the needs of the
community during different transition phases. This would involve incorporating the tracking
and monitoring of the region’s transition and aligning key outcomes with different stages of the
transition roadmap.
• Leverage the existing networks (i.e. working groups, committees and organisations) that
engage with business and community in the Upper Hunter region to create a publicly visible
and inclusive multi-stakeholder governance structure with clear roles and
responsibilities centred around the status and timing of the region’s economic transition. This
requires identifying the relevant stakeholders that are external to government.
Ultimately, proactively tracking and monitoring the transition alongside clearly identifiable
feedback between government, industry and community will ensure that collaboration and the
sharing of information occurs through the most appropriate channels.
Who? This process should take into consideration the findings of Action 1.1. Efforts to streamline
governance structures (such as providing clear communication materials which describe the
relevant governance frameworks and arrangements, including reporting lines and responsibilities
e.g. interactive graphic) could be led by the Hunter JO, with support from the State Government
and in collaboration with community groups and business and industry.
When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken by the end of 2021.
7.2 Theme 2: Prepare for the unknown

The Upper Hunter’s access to natural resources provides the region with a comparative advantage
that has long supported economic growth led by a few key industries. However, these strengths
are also what expose the region to the economic impacts and physical risks of climate change.
The major industries driving growth, mining and agriculture, rely heavily on the availability of
natural resources. The changing climate and availability of water resources are, therefore, key
parameters that will shape the future outlook for these industries. While the Greater Hunter
Regional Water Strategy provides extensive research using historical climatic record of the region,
there is a limited understanding about how the region's climate is likely to change over the next
50-years and how this will impact on the availability of water.
Every region of the world is exposed to the physical risks of a changing climate, and while it is
impossible to fully predict the effects of a changing climate, it is worth understanding the extent of
climate exposure in a region over the long-term, especially in a region that is supported by a
resource-based economy.
Action 2.1. Prepare long-range climate and water outlooks for the region
Underpinning the activities of major industry sectors is climate and water. Irrespective of industrial
demand it is important to understand how climate and water supply are likely to vary over time.
Detailed climate modelling and forecasts will assist the region to develop a deeper understanding
of the environmental outlook to identify how land areas across the Hunter Valley region will likely
be affected (e.g. agriculture and mining) and inform the prioritisation of infrastructure solutions.
86
These outlooks should cover expected changes in:
• future rainfall and evaporation patterns

• temperatures and temperature variation
• changes in soil quality
• the frequency and severity of natural disasters, including severe storm and fire events, and
drought and drought lengths
• pressures on the natural environment, including pressures on water catchments and aquifers,
flora and fauna wildlife, and natural parklands.

The development of long-range climate and water outlooks for the region should consider supply-
side constraints that can assist decision-makers to set parameters within which industries can
grow.
Who? While these forecasts may be outside of the immediate capacity for local stakeholders to
produce, the relevant councils may request this outlook from the relevant State Government
bodies, such as NSW Primary Industries or AdaptNSW120, or engage support from the
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Where this information is not
readily available, regional organisations may wish to commission new work, in conjunction with
DPIE Water who are already doing this work for Regional Water Strategies.
When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to five years,
and be updated throughout the period of transition.
Action 2.2: Prepare long-range demand outlook for water resources in the
region
As previously noted, the prosperity of the region is largely dependent on industries that are reliant
on soil and coal, but do not co-exist or interact easily. The very landscape that is an enabler is also
a limitation, with climate and water security and quality an ongoing concern. As highlighted in the
Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy,121 the limited availability of water resources is a central
issue that limits the region’s ability to achieve a diverse mix of industries. A clearer semi-regular
demand outlook should be built out for water resources (in the context of the outlook established
in Action 2.1) to support planning decisions in the short-medium term. As above, should this
outlook be outside the scope of local planning activities, it should be separately commissioned
from an appropriate State Government body, educational and/or private organisation and should
build on the work undertaken in the Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy.
The outputs should highlight the future demand for water resources from local industries (e.g.
mining and agriculture), from growing urban areas (both locally and in the Newcastle and Mid-
Coast areas), and from the natural environment. This can then be used to evaluate the longer-
term sustainability of current water use practices, considering existing incentive structures, water
use and management practices, and sharing arrangements.
Ultimately, Action 2.1 and Action 2.2 will inform the development of solutions (including
infrastructure solutions) to ensure sustainability and water security, and to improve water
management and allocation practices between industry sectors, population demands, and the
environment.
Who? As per Action 2.2, while these forecasts may be outside of the immediate capacity for local
stakeholders to produce, the relevant councils may seek to request this outlook from the relevant
120
NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, 2020, AdaptNSW, available at:
https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-for-NSW/Climate-projections-for-your-
region
121
NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, November 2018, Greater Hunter Regional Water
Strategy, New South Wales Government, available at:
https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/196055/greater-hunter-regional-water-
strategy.pdf
87
State Government bodies, or alternatively, seek an educational institution or private sector

organisation to produce a regional outlook.
and subsequently be updated on a regular basis or as conditions dictate.
Action 2.3: Prepare and update regular coal mining outlook for the region
A fundamental driver of economic growth and employment in the region, the mining sector equally
exposes the community to national and international risk as markets begin to transition away from

emissions intensive industries. There are also cyclical factors at play, with commodity prices
subject to significant volatility across economic cycles. To support the region’s transition, an
understanding of the potential future(s) of (coal) mining in Australia over the next 50 years and
the role for the Hunter Valley should be developed and regularly updated among stakeholders
(particularly in the context of new governance arrangements discussed in Theme 1).
The outlook should seek to answer questions related to the timing of disruption to the coal
industry covering both demand and supply-side considerations. This could include an overview of
the global competitiveness of Hunter mines in terms of costs of production, the timing of these
changes and forecasts for growth in global demand for the type and quantity of coal mined in the
Hunter (i.e. volume and price forecasts).
The outlook should also consider additional drivers of future supply and demand changes,
including:
• an acceleration of climate change

• growth in competitive energy sources (e.g. renewables)
• introduction of carbon pricing domestically
• introduction of carbon pricing internationally (or in key coal importing countries)
• technological disruption and the automation of production in the mining sector.
Who? While the LGAs should keep a close eye on the future outlook via publicly available
documentation, the requirement for a frequent and detailed outlook may require specialist support
from the State Government, and/or private institutions.
and subsequently be updated on a regular basis or as conditions dictate.
7.3 Theme 3: Shape perceptions

Often, regions are defined by their strengths, whether it be industrial, cultural or the surrounding
natural environment. These strengths can merge into an association with identity – for
communities and businesses alike. The perception of place that locals, businesses and potential
investors may have can influence decisions to remain in the region and attract new businesses and
investment. Image, therefore, should be carefully curated, genuine, and consistent with all other
aspects of decision-making – especially, those relating to investment and visitor attraction.
The Upper Hunter region’s offerings extend further than just mining. As explored in Chapter 5, the
region has strengths in other industries such as agribusiness, energy and tourism, and will
continue to invest in diversifying its economy as it transitions away from mining. Supporting these
industries will require the attraction of investment and skills as key inputs to production. As the
region moves to redefine its economic landscape, the way in which the community approaches
economic development to attract social and financial capital will also need to change.
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Action 3.1: Review branding, marketing and promotion strategy

Place branding is often used by local governments to attract social and financial capital to their
region.122 A targeted place branding strategy will enable the region to differentiate itself from its
former image and develop a competitive ‘brand value’. It will also provide a clear and unifying
message to existing businesses and communities as well as promote the region’s aspirations to
encourage investment for the future.
In the case of the Upper Hunter, the aim of a place branding strategy and regional ‘brand value’
would be to support the development of industry sectors where the region has demonstratable

competitive strengths and offer future growth potential – such as, agribusiness, energy and
tourism.
The launch of the UP website in June 2020,123 is an initial step in the right direction to support the
region to build a brand that can attract investment and activity throughout the transition.
However, more depth and detail are required to present a unified and coherent image of the region
to the world. Presently the UP portal is difficult to find – a simple web search did not result in it
appearing on the first page and while the portal provides visitors with links to potentially relevant
bodies/organisations/documents, it requires more attention to identify how the website can best
assist those who will be most likely to utilise it. Small fixes like this represent low-hanging fruit
that can provide significant benefits across all stages of the region’s transition.
The appropriate strategy will need to consider the needs of the community and its longevity (i.e.
targeting population growth) and the needs of industry (i.e. supporting investment). To achieve
this, the development of the strategy should involve the community. This could be done through
existing local groups (e.g. the Hunter Joint Organisation) alongside local government. This process
should seek to identify the elements of place (e.g. natural environment, built environment, culture
and heritage and people) that make the Upper Hunter region unique and build a complete brand.
Who? This process would require collaboration between the local community/industry, led by a
single governance body such as the Hunter Joint Organisation (as owners of the UP initiative) to
ensure all of the engagement with local community and business is clear, easy to locate and
interpret and is unified.
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action can happen progressively over the next few
decades. Under the transition and shock scenarios, this action should be undertaken over the next
three to five years.
Action 3.2: Improve the quality of urban amenity

From across the various focus groups and consultations undertaken, there was a call for the urban
amenity of the region to reflect the ‘brand’ of the region. One barrier to this goal was a consistent,
collaborative approach to urban amenity provision across the region. As such, a coordinated social
infrastructure strategy should be developed across the region, in collaboration with all four local
Councils. The strategy should detail opportunities to support the ‘brand’ of the region, improve
social networks and community engagement, and look to dispel negative perceptions. Additionally,
the strategy should identify needs and current gaps for social and community service provision
within the region (for example community hub models), forming the basis of any future services
(further detail can be found in Actions 5.2 and 5.3). Solutions understood to already be
underway include infrastructure and services to support a diversified night-time economy, arts and
cultural hubs and family-friendly parks.
The key to success for a social infrastructure strategy is genuine engagement with the community
and collaboration across key delivery stakeholders. This strategy should also be consistent with the
region’s promotion strategy and its economic development objectives, and align with image the
region wishes to project to prospective investors, visitors, and future residents.
122
Andersson, Ida (2014) Placing place branding: an analysis of an emerging research field in human
geography. Danish Journal of Geography, 114.2, 143- 155.
123
Available at <https://upperhunterregion.com.au/>.
89
Who? This could possibly be undertaken in an LGA collaboration by the Hunter Joint Organisation.
The social infrastructure strategy should be an opportunity to collaborate with stakeholder groups
and the community to ensure all voices are heard and part of forming solutions, reflecting existing
Community Strategic Plans that are prepared by each LGA.
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to
five years. Under the transition and shock scenarios, this action should be commenced
immediately.

7.4 Theme 4: Improve skills and workforce outcomes
The skills and education of residents in the region are mostly matched to the current industry
profile of the region. As this profile shifts and changes, re-training and skilling the population will
become increasingly important. Young people, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and
female lone parents are key cohorts in the region who experience constraints from lower education
and skills attainment.
For example, some young people in the region face constraints to employment derived from lower
levels of education and training, and a constrained job market, with limited entry-level positions.
The reduced rates of education and training are likely attributable to low engagement in secondary
education; evidenced by the fact that only 37 per cent of young people in the region complete Year
12.124 Additionally, young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the region have lower
engagement rates in secondary education. In consultations it was mentioned that this is
potentially due to a lack of access to culturally safe and appropriate education services. Female-
headed lone parents families face constraints to employment and further education from external
barriers including transport accessibility, higher costs of living and housing, and a lack of
affordable childcare services.
Many emerging industries and businesses within the Upper Hunter require further education
qualifications to support access to skills in the region, including entry-level jobs in some instances.
Therefore, further support to access further education and re-skilling is required.
Action 4.1: Develop a skills map of local industry to identify training

opportunities for residents
As noted above, the skills and education of residents in the region are mostly matched to the
current industry profile of the region. That is, they are matched to service and product delivery
industries and not generally high value add sectors (except for those in the mining sector). A
detailed, rigorous, regionalised analysis is required of both the current workforce skills profile, and
how these skills can be transferred to other sectors and industries.
A skills map that also assesses projected demand scenarios and industry age structure for specific
sectors would provide useful insights. This skills map could be used for potential investors in the
region as well as offer the opportunity to support re-training efforts within the economy.
Who? Some work in this space is currently underway by the Business Attraction Committee.125
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next ten
years, while more immediate action should be undertaken under the transition and shock
scenarios.
124
Australian Government, 2016, Upper Hunter Workforce Plan, available at:
http://portal.singleton.nsw.gov.au/eplanning/common/output/trimdocumentviewer.aspx?id=07adysaavYI%3D
125
The Business Attraction Committee comprising local business leaders, has been established by Regional
NSW to assist potential investors to the Hunter region
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Action 4.2: Address barriers to secondary school retention and completion

In order to encourage students to stay within the education system, exposing and inspiring young
people to the prospects of the Upper Hunter is important. This can be done with mentorship
programs as well as programs that educate and provide students with training pathways (see
Action 4.3).
Mentorship programs have been proven to support engagement, dispel negative community and
social network issues and support retention and completion of further study. For example, models
such as Clontarf Academy show that catered (and culturally appropriate) mentorship has the

potential to encourage and retain students in the education system.
Case Study: Clontarf Academy
Clontarf Academy focuses on young male Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students. The
Academy provides mentorship, sports activities and other support services through schools. It
also assists students in finding pathways to further education opportunities. The program has a
far reach with over 120 academies and 9,000 students currently participating across Australia.
A strategy should be developed to support and expand upon curated and culturally appropriate
mentorship programs in the region. This could be done through pilot programs, or the expansion
of existing models such as the Clontarf Academy. As part of this strategy social networks are
strengthened so that students feel part of a community and not isolated from learning, as
discussed further in Action 5.2.
Who? In order to ensure the success of the above identified action, including appropriate
evaluation and monitoring of success, the current Skills and Education Working Group should be
supported and enhanced. This group should comprise representatives from key stakeholders
including the Department of Education, the Hunter Region Employment Facilitator, TAFE NSW,
Newcastle University, industry and other regional organisations (e.g. RDA), as well as community
groups (including Indigenous Australians in the region). Subgroups, or panels of this working
group could be formed with focuses on secondary education attainment, Indigenous educational
outcomes, further education attainment and skills re-training. Greater collaboration with other
sectors within the Upper Hunter region, will ultimately lead to better education and employment
outcomes in the region.
When? Under each scenario, this action should commence over the next three to five years in
order to address existing social disadvantage and community concerns, and to maximise the
opportunities of young people living within the region.
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Action 4.3: Strengthen education pathways to vocational and higher education

There are fantastic programs in the broader Hunter region that support improvements to
educational attainment and workforce participation, including P-TECH and others that facilitate
industry, VET and secondary school opportunities. Through the Education and Training Focus
Group it became apparent that certain bodies are already working extremely well. In order to
support this ongoing collaboration and program success, a dedicated skills and training working
group could be developed with a primary remit of improving vocational and higher educational
attainment in the region. This working group could also take charge in the development of a skills

map as per Action 4.1, matching the skills required in industry against the skills in the region with
the changing industry composition.
Case Study: P-TECH
P-TECH offers secondary students an industry-supported education pathway to a science,

technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) related diploma, advanced diploma or
associate degree. This allows students to have greater insight and knowledge of industries that
are rapidly becoming the face of the Upper Hunter.
Through both the education and training and the social impact focus group consultations, the need
for greater career advice for residents and young people was discussed. As the region’s economy
rapidly changes, more advice is particularly needed on the future of work and how skills in today’s
industries can be transferable between industries and occupations. The Hunter Joint Organisation’s
Hunter 2050 Foundation was mentioned as a potential driver of this through a proposed Worker
Support Services. Other partnerships that should be explored include Youth Express in schools,
TAFE institutes and the University of Newcastle. Other best-practice models to be explored include
the Victorian TAFE models, which incorporate both career counselling and career mapping
sessions. Programs like this improve student awareness and engagement, supporting greater
uptake of further education, especially for young people.
Who? As the primary provider of vocational education, the State Government should identify
transferrable skills across industries and occupations with significant support from existing
governance bodies (such as the Hunter JO). For assistance with higher education pathways, the
Commonwealth Government, as the primary provider of higher education, should lead action on
skills pathways in this area (with the support of the State Government).
When? Under all scenarios, this action should be undertaken over the next three to five years.
7.5 Theme 5: Build vibrant communities

In order to build vibrant communities, social and environmental barriers must be addressed. This
requires the expansion of access to affordable, stable housing, physical and mental health
services, strong social capital opportunities, as well as the building of trust in community and
social services.126 Disadvantage or vulnerability is the result of the complex interplay between
individual factors, the economic characteristics of the local community (e.g. unemployment, low
income) and the effects of the social and environmental context within the community (e.g. weak
social networks, relative lack of opportunities, lack of trust and scepticism).
Those vulnerable cohorts of the Upper Hunter Region are particularly susceptible to these barriers
which further limits their active participation in the economy. Indigenous Australians are further
disadvantaged without the availability of culturally appropriate social services, health and
education.
126
Acknowledging the work undertaken in Council Community Strategic Plans and the role these play in
addressing some of these identified barriers, the implementation of the below actions should be undertaken in
conjunction with the Local Councils of the region.
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Action 5.1: Support housing affordability and diversity

DPIE is currently developing a state-wide Housing Strategy. In order to enhance housing
affordability and diversity in the region, a housing strategy should be developed for the Upper
Hunter region. The strategy would focus on diversity, supply, affordability and resilience of housing
in the area, in line with the Housing Strategy action areas. The development of this strategy
should leverage existing and/or future governance structures (i.e. leverage existing networks) and
incorporate representations from all four local councils, the Aboriginal community, and social
housing and services in the Upper Hunter region.

Who? This action should be led by the State Government, with support from the Commonwealth
Government, local Government and community groups.
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to
five years. Under the transition and shock scenarios, this action could be undertaken over the next
decade as the withdrawal of relatively highly paid coal mining jobs from the economy ease current
pressures on housing affordability.
Action 5.2: Strengthen social networks

Strengthening social networks and community cohesion is key to building resilience in a
community. This can be done through numerous avenues including the provision of appropriate
and accessible social infrastructure as well as key programs (for further detail on the need for a
social infrastructure strategy, see Action 3.2).
A successful program model is the delivery of community hubs. A community hub provides a
central point for the community to participate in engagement opportunities, social activities, as
well as the provision of infrastructure such as internet, and key services such as legal support. This
‘hub and spoke’ response works well by incorporating and providing services within facilities which
are perceived as ‘reliable’ within the community.127 This could build on the OCHRE Opportunity
Hub established in Muswellbrook and administered by Training Services NSW. 128 Examples of types
of services that could be provided with a community hub are further detailed in Action 5.3. A
feasibility study should be undertaken to explore whether and how community hubs would best
work in the region, exploring the provision of land, revitalisation of dilapidated or abandoned
buildings, as well as the appetite for the provision of social facilities such as council buildings or
youth clubs.
In order to ensure this action can be supported and is effective, there should be reasonable digital
connectivity and transport access to the hub (as mentioned in Theme 6, Improve Connectivity).
Who? To provide support to the local community, business and industry, this action should be
undertaken in a collaborative way, led by LGAs with support and input from the State Government
and community groups.
When? Under each scenario, this action should be commenced immediately.
127
Roufeil, L and Battye, K, April 2008, Effective regional, rural and remote family and relationships service
delivery, Australian Government Institute of Family Studies, available at:
<https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/effective-regional-rural-and-remote-family-and-relationship#review>.
128
Training Services NSW, ‘OCHRE Opportunity Hubs’
<https://www.training.nsw.gov.au/programs_services/funded_other/acp/ochre.html >.
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Action 5.3: Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy

In order to create greater opportunity for vulnerable cohorts to access further education, skills and
employment opportunities, significant growth in the care economy is required. This includes
services such as childcare, outside school care, disability services and aged care. Expanding this
sector also provides greater employment opportunities in the region. For example, the low-skills
entry requirements and flexibility of employment schedules are key advantages for entering the
sector.
Options to build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy should be explored in consultation with the

community sector in the region. The region has a number of service providers, each with varying
degrees of maturity. Supporting collaboration across these service providers in turn will support
the building of the sector. Supporting partnerships with educational providers should also be
explored. For example, the provision of on-site childcare at TAFEs offers provision of a much-
needed service, but also a place for students studying childcare to complete their placements
within these facilities.
Who? This action should be led by local Government, with support from the State Government
and community groups (taking into consideration the Community Strategic Plans from each LGA)
and business and industry.
When? Under each scenario, this action should be undertaken over the next three to five years.
Action 5.4: Explore opportunities for improved health and social service
provision in the region
A key concern across the region was access to adequate health and social services. A health,
mental health and social services strategy should be developed that explores the gaps in services
and the various opportunities and models for improved provision. The strategy should explore the
opportunities for building the care economy (see Action 5.3), feasibility of a community hub (see
Action 5.2), successful pilot programs in the region (see case study Stronger Families – Capable
Communities) as well as innovative models of service delivery in regional areas including mobile
services129 and telehealth services.130 Further, supporting the delivery of telehealth mental health
services addresses the social stigma of accessing mental health services and reduces barriers such
as travel time and costs.
Additionally, community-led approaches to health promotion and social awareness will be

important and should be explored as part of the strategy. For example, within the focus groups
and consultations, a key barrier identified in accessing services was the scepticism many locals felt
towards authorities and providers. Peer-led health promotion and community education services
that are led by community members need to be considered, especially for the Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander population in the region. These ensure that services are culturally
appropriate. Some best-practice models overseas recruit community volunteers who are provided
with an accredited training programme on community health education and promotion. A similar
approach could be adopted in the region, especially for the Indigenous Australian population who
would benefit from culturally appropriate and Indigenous led health promotion activities.
The strategy should ensure any models of service provision implemented, including telehealth
services, considers how to best:
• build trust, reach and awareness in the community

• support service providers in the region (and beyond)
• provide infrastructure to deliver the new model (see for example Action 6.3 for expanding
digital infrastructure).
129
This is particularly useful for specialist services, that may otherwise spend a high proportion of budget on
establishing infrastructure to provide services.
130
Roufeil, L and Battye, K, April 2008, Effective regional, rural and remote family and relationships service
delivery, Australian Government Institute of Family Studies, available at:
https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/effective-regional-rural-and-remote-family-and-relationship#review
94
Greater access to health, mental health and social services is key to ensuring the region builds
vibrant communities.
Strong Families—Capable Communities
Strong Families—Capable Communities employs a collective impact approach to addressing

social problems and enhancing community strengths. The collective impact program is currently
delivered by the University of Newcastle and led by Professor Alan Hayes.

A pilot program was rolled out in Muswellbrook in three schools and consisted of:
• Occupational Therapy (OT) Students from the University of Newcastle doing their
placements in Muswellbrook schools. School students were able to access OT services
under the supervision of a practitioner. The plan is to expand school placements (in
phase 2 of the pilot) to include nutrition and dietetics, physiotherapy, psychology,
speech therapy and medicine students.
• Outreach programs in the area include ‘Act-Belong-Commit’ and ‘Our Health Rules’
programs. The aim is to promote wellbeing and eating healthy and physical activity
through these health education initiatives.
Who? Any strategy on health and social services should be led by the State Government as the
primary provider of healthcare services, with support from the Commonwealth Government,
community groups and business and industry.
When? Under the limited change and transition scenarios, this action should be undertaken over
the next three to five years. Under the shock scenario this action should be undertaken
immediately.
7.6 Theme 6: Improve connectivity

The relationship between physical and digital connectivity and economic growth is not new. It is
worth noting however, that the key benefit of improved transport connectivity is its
transformational effects – making cities and regions more accessible and more liveable.131
Better connectivity creates opportunities for economic development that would not otherwise exist.
Presently, the Upper Hunter region suffers from physical and digital connectivity issues. In
particular, transport barriers disrupt access to education, employment, social, health and
community services. Community consultations also indicated a widespread view that the Upper
Hunter region, like many areas in regional Australia, continues to suffer from digital connectivity
issues.
Physical and digital infrastructure are important to support the needs of industry today and
tomorrow. From the perspective of community and industry – physical and digital infrastructure
and connectivity are important to attracting and retaining investment and people. Without
improvement, issues with physical and digital connectivity will act as barriers to attracting people
and investment in the region.
131
Standing Committee on Infrastructure, Transport and Cities, 2016, Harnessing Value, Delivering
Infrastructure, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, available at
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportrep/024018/toc_pdf/HarnessingValue,Deliveri
ngInfrastructure.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf
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Action 6.1: Investigate innovative local public transport solutions

A reoccurring theme across all the focus groups and consultations was around transport barriers in
accessing education, employment, social, health and community services, in particular public
transport accessibility and optionality. People living in regional areas of NSW often have limited
choice and must rely on private vehicles to access services, education and employment.132 This
presents a significant barrier to active economic participation for certain cohorts in the region,
especially for those who cannot afford private vehicles or cannot drive.
Access to transport is an enabler across a number of actions and as such is a critical action. A

feasibility study should be undertaken that investigates innovative local public transport solutions.
The study should consider options that are articulated in the NSW Transport Strategy (2056) such
as on-demand services and regional Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV), as well as other
options including car-sharing initiatives and community buses.
On-demand services are an innovative local public transport solution, they pick locals up from their
homes or an easy to access location and drop them off at transport hubs, community hubs or
popular destinations. A trial service has been occurring since 2019 in the Orana region operated by
Ogden’s Coaches company. Bookings can be made up to a month or a day beforehand and fares
are split into concession and standard.133
CAVs are another innovative transport solution, especially in regional areas, as articulated in the
NSW Transport Strategy (2056). CAVs improve the timeliness of transport services, as well as act
as a catalyst for further innovation in region. A key success factor in delivery of CAVs is ensuring
that the supporting infrastructure (roads and digital infrastructure) are in place.
Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) Trial

Automated vehicles use technologies including robotics, sensors and advanced software to
automate one or more elements of driving, such as steering, accelerating or braking.
Connected vehicles use wireless technology to communicate with other vehicles, the road and
other infrastructure, and even personal devices. Automated shuttle trials were carried out at
the end of 2018 in Coffs Harbour and Armidale. The trial included testing technology with the
University of New England and introducing shuttle services for residents around the Armidale
CBD area. The idea is that CAVs will be part of an integrated transport network in the future.
Car sharing is another option that could be explored in the region. Car sharing provides affordable
access to vehicles, reduces vehicle distance travelled, and provides an option to those who would
not otherwise have access to a car. Additionally, the option is generally more environmentally
friendly.134 As car sharing providers including Go-Get and Car Next Door currently largely operate
in metropolitan areas, opportunities to attract operators like this could be explored.
Who? Any strategy should be undertaken in a collaborative way across Transport for NSW and
Local Councils.
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be commenced immediately. Under
the transition scenario it should be commenced over the next 3-5 years. Under the shock scenario
this action should be over the next decade as the rapid withdrawal of large-scale coal mining
employment reduces the imperative for improved transport solutions.
132
Audit Office of New South Wales, Public transport in regional areas, New South Wales Government,
available at: https://www.audit.nsw.gov.au/our-work/reports/public-transport-in-regional-areas
133
Transport for NSW, 2018 Future Transport 2056 Strategy accessed online
<https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/documents/2018/Future_Transport_2056_Strat
egy.pdf>
134
City of Sydney, 31 July 2020 Article: Car Share, accessed online at:
<https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/live/residents/car-share>
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Action 6.2: Prepare scoping study to identify inter-regional transport

infrastructure gaps
Throughout the consultation process, the issue of quality and capacity of transport infrastructure
connecting the Upper Hunter to other major population centres – such as Sydney and Western
Sydney – was raised a barrier to growth and investment attraction. Stakeholders from the
agribusiness and tourism sectors identified poor road and rail transport connectivity as a barrier to
increased freight transport and tourism visitations due to the increased time-cost associated with
travel to the Upper Hunter. This was also identified not only as a barrier to the future growth of

these industries, but also to the potential diversification and the growth of auxiliary service
industries and downstream supply chain industries – such as food manufacturing.
However, the impact of the quality of the existing road transport infrastructure on the
diversification and growth of the region is dependent on the scenario outlook for the region. In a
future where mining continues to dominate (Limited Change scenario), for example, the case for
improved and greater capacity road infrastructure would be stronger.
A first step is to prepare a scoping study to specifically identify the existing inter-regional road
transport infrastructure gaps and consider the potential emerging needs and unmet demands of
industry (both current and prospective industries) under various scenario outlooks. This would
consider the needs of the Upper Hunter region’s stakeholders today, as well as consideration for
the needs of stakeholders in industries that the region wishes to attract in future.
Who? Any scoping study should be undertaken in a collaborative way, led by the NSW
Government (particularly Transport for NSW) with additional support from the DRNSW, and
regional local councils.
When? Under each scenario, this action should take place immediately.
Action 6.3: Explore opportunities to improve the quality and availability of

digital connectivity
The NSW Government “has committed $400 million to bring a faster and more reliable digital
network to regional NSW. The Regional Digital Connectivity program will ensure families and
businesses across regional NSW have better access to enjoy mobile, internet and digital services”.
Areas in the Upper Hunter, such as Muswellbrook, have been included in consultations by the
Government to better understand the challenges.135 Consultations in the Upper Hunter for this
project also reflected that digital connectivity is currently a significant challenge for the
community, business and industry.
Digital infrastructure and connectivity play an extremely important role in economic development,
serving as the foundation on which researchers and industry have innovated economies and
societies to higher standards of living and technological process. The use and application of
satellite enabled data have driven improvements in productivity across many industries in our
economy, but noticeably so in agriculture and mining.
For example, mobile and internet connectivity in the agricultural sectors can provide farmers with
valuable information on weather conditions, disease control and new methods of maximising crop
yield, and enable livestock tracking. Estimates indicate that Australia’s agriculture sector could
increase its gross value of production by $20.3 billion through unconstrained digital agriculture. 136
In the mining industry by comparison remote operating centres, data analytics, drones, powerful
geological tools, advanced mine planning software and automation have played a significant role in
driving improvements in productivity.
However, these improvements all require integration into existing systems that is enabled by the
quality of digital connectivity. Looking ahead (regardless of the scenario), industry is going to
135
Regional NSW, Better connectivity for regional NSW, New South Wales Government, available at:
https://www.nsw.gov.au/snowy-hydro-legacy-fund/better-connectivity-for-regional-nsw
136
Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions, 2019, Connecting Victoria, State Government of Victoria,
Melbourne, available at https://djpr.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1729760/12172-DJPR-RDV-
Connecting-Victoria_overview-brochure-A4-revised_v3_FINAL.pdf
97
continue to rely on digital infrastructure to support operations. Having digital infrastructure that
can support the growing (and future) needs of industry is an important factor in attracting and
retaining investment.
To assist the region to support diversification, it is important that a clear understanding of the
current state of digital infrastructure supporting the Upper Hunter region be developed. Particularly
as it pertains to the differing needs of community, business and industry, and how well positioned
the existing infrastructure is to support the medium-long term needs of the region. Digital
solutions for the Upper Hunter could include:

• Work with industry to develop an understanding of how major industries in the region, such as
mining and agriculture are using digital infrastructure in their operations and to what standard
the existing infrastructure supports these activities
• Engage in a process to identify the digital infrastructure needs of the Upper Hunter region
• Use these findings to inform the development of a business case to consider the appropriate
options for further detailed assessment. Noting that any options should be considered in the
context of existing strategies (e.g. the Regional Digital Connectivity program)
Who? The identification of the current state of digital infrastructure and the Upper Hunter region’s
future needs should be led by the NSW Government, as the primary provider of infrastructure
(such as 4G and 5G infrastructure) particularly in ‘thin’ markets, with support from the Australian
Government in relation to further NBN rollout.
When? Under each scenario, this action should be commenced immediately.
7.7 Theme 7: Activate innovation and enterprise

In order to support the diversification of the region and support the growth of the region’s priority
industries, technological innovation and entrepreneurship should be fostered and encouraged. As
with other regional areas in Australia, the Upper Hunter faces challenges in terms of
unemployment, transitioning industries and ‘brain drain’ of talent to cities. Solutions to these
challenges require innovation and the uptake of new technologies to drive economic
development.137 The ability to embrace and apply new technologies – such as AgTech and METS –
has the potential provide another point of difference and competitive strength for the Upper
Hunter, as well as further enhance the productivity of the region’s priority industries and develop
industry ecosystems and clusters.
Within the community focus group, it was discussed that young people are interested in learning
more about technological advancement opportunities. Encouraging further expansion of relevant
industries will also support delivery of diversity of jobs, including entry level jobs. This will support
inclusive growth principles, providing employment opportunities for young people, and those
looking to re-train. Additionally, by encouraging business activity and growth, supporting
entrepreneurship, social enterprise and SMEs this in turn will support the attraction of people to
the region and support inclusive growth.
Action 7.1: Develop an innovation ecosystem strategy

The development of an innovation ecosystem strategy should be undertaken in the Upper Hunter
region. A similar strategy was undertaken by the Queensland Government for regional
Queensland, known as the ‘Regional Innovation Hubs Program.’ The strategy entailed the
formation of innovation hubs (places and spaces,) mentorship and grant opportunities that could
be translated to the Upper Hunter.
The innovation ecosystem strategy should explore the opportunity for an innovation hub in the
region. Innovation hubs support agglomeration benefits through bringing people together, giving
them access to expertise and facilities. This in turn cultivates start-ups, new technologies and
innovation. They are beneficial to the community as they encourage and support diversification,
particularly in the technology space for higher value add industries. It also provides a sense of
137
Haines, T. 2016. Developing a Startup and Innovation Ecosystem in Regional Australia. Technology
Innovation Management Review, 6(6): 24-32. http://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/994
98
community pride and social cohesion. Hubs also have the potential to attract new residents from
outside the region, also bringing new jobs with them.
As Innovation Hubs generally have a core focus, potential areas for investigation for the region
could encompass AgTech and METS. Actions, such as those aimed at improving digital connectivity
(Action 6.3, discussed earlier) and support social enterprise (explored further in Action 7.2) will
further support the development of an innovation ecosystem.

The MTP Life Sciences Innovation Hub
The Western Australian Government have funded the establishment of three new innovation
hubs. The MTP Life Sciences Innovation Hub opened in 2017, in conjunction with the University
of Western Australia, Government of Western Australia and New Industries WA. The hub is
located at the University of Western Australia and has a focus on life sciences and MedTech
sector. This innovation hub works to provide training opportunities to attract and grow
innovation further. These are done with a range of organisations such as Engineers Australia
and Aus BioTech.
The strategy should also look at potential grant and mentoring programs as well as how to best
support STEM initiatives, for example through the provision of high-quality facilities that are
accessible to all local students. As a part of the strategy a youth advisory group should be
consulted to ensure that these hubs are youth friendly and encourage innovation.
Who? The development of an innovation ecosystem strategy, including appropriate evaluation and
monitoring of success, should be led by LGAs, coordinating implementation in collaboration with
the needs of industry and with support from the State Government.
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be commenced over the next
decade, under the transition scenario it should be commenced over the next three to five years
and under the shock scenario this action should be commenced immediately.
Action 7.2: Support social enterprise

The Upper Hunter region could benefit from social enterprises in the region and should be scoped
within an innovation ecosystem strategy. Social enterprises are business ventures that operate to
achieve a social outcome, whilst still being able to cover operating costs.138 They are greatly
beneficial to the region as they focus on building and delivering initiatives for a stronger
community while providing for local employment opportunities. Within the Upper Hunter region,
social enterprises have the potential to create greater community cohesion. Community focus
groups surfaced the need for greater community ownership over outcomes in the region, and that
this could be supported through social enterprises, that in turn would support community cohesion
and provide familiarity and pride.
The Victorian Government pioneered a social enterprise strategy to lead growth in labour force
participation and inclusive economic growth across the state. The strategy involves greater
coordination across government and social enterprises with focuses on increasing impact and
innovation, building capacity and improving market access. The ideal of this strategy is to ignite
new jobs within the economy.
138
Mission Australia, 2020, Social enterprise, available at: https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/what-we-
do/employment-skills-training/social-enterprise
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Victoria Social Enterprise Strategy 139
The strategy involves eight initiatives:
1. Opening Doors for Social Enterprises: Government to support engagement and

participation by social enterprises. This includes a training program for government to
understand social enterprises.
2. Connecting the community: creation of an enterprise network.
3. Valuing Social Enterprise Impact: evaluation of social enterprise impact through data.

4. Building skills to grow business: skills development programs.
5. Assisting intermediaries: providing funding, mentoring business support.
6. Social procurement framework: to leverage public investment in supporting social
outcomes.
7. Social enterprise recognition: to help identify social enterprises.
8. Marketplace partnering: online Matching Platform and On-ground Events Calendar.
In the development of an innovation ecosystem strategy (as detailed in Action 7.1), support for
the formation of social enterprises should be undertaken. A similar stance to Victoria could be
taken with the inclusion of grants, training programs, mentorship and a network with other social
enterprises across New South Wales.
Young people have great potential in injecting the Upper Hunter with new ideas and technologies.
Therefore, catering social entrepreneurship initiatives to young people should be prioritised. Some
options include, partnering with youth groups, such as the Police and Community Youth Club
(PCYC), and schools to run social enterprise courses and mentorship programs.
Who? As detailed in Action 7.1, the strategy should enable an environment that supports
community ownership over outcomes in the region through social enterprises. To this end, this
action should be led by LGAs in close collaboration with community groups, business and industry,
with additional support from the State Government.
When? Under the limited change scenario, this action should be commenced over the next
decade, under the transition scenario it should be commenced over the next three to five years
and under the shock scenario this action should be commenced immediately.
7.8 Theme 8: Leverage existing endowments

The Upper Hunter currently has several key infrastructure assets that help to facilitate the region’s
economic activity, including in the existing mining, energy and agriculture sectors. As the current
uses of these key infrastructure assets change over time, it is important that, where possible,
these assets and associated lands are repurposed or reutilised in order to maximise their
economic, social and environmental potential, and to assist in supporting opportunities for future
growth and diversification in the region.
Throughout the consultation process, it was noted in several instances that the current planning
processes and systems associated with the shutdown and rehabilitation of these assets often
create a lack of incentive to repurpose these assets for productive use. More specifically, there
appears to be less risk associated with proceeding with an ecological rehabilitation process, even if
the specific land or asset has the potential to be re-purposed for alternative productive uses, than
exploring alternative opportunities.
139
State Government of Victoria, Social Enterprise Strategy (2017)
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Action 8.1: Maximise opportunities for land use management including buffer
lands
Currently, significant land reserves exist as buffer zones between mining, agricultural and urban
areas. As the region continues to diversify, there is potential for existing policy and land use
management strategies to be revisited to facilitate future economic diversity and sustainability.
Future options for land use management include considerations of potential conflicts between
industry sectors competing for similar resources. Engagement of stakeholders is necessary to
ensure viable economic, environmental and social outcomes. Engagement should include

discussion of consistent approaches and consideration of whether current processes and
rehabilitation approaches are and will be effective in the future to ensure a balanced approach.
An investigation of options for alternate land use within existing buffer zones should be undertaken
to identify the potential to further increase productivity, as well as to gauge the appetite among
the existing stakeholders and market participants around opportunities for industrial or commercial
uses.
This investigative process would need to involve the key landholders including miners and farmers,
as well as key state and Commonwealth government regulatory bodies. This process should seek
to determine the willingness or appetite of these landholders for rezoning and development, as
well as consider current safety and environmental regulatory settings. Incentives should also be
considered.
Outcomes of this process should outline implications of increased land use on demand for water
resources in the region, and the development of any plan should also align with other regional
development strategies – such a branding and tourism, and agriculture. Most importantly, the
implications for the local residential and farming community – for whom ‘buffer zones’ exist to
protect – would also need to be considered. This process could also test the market to determine
the level of demand for these lands from prospective private sector investors or developers.
The timing for implementing this action does not vary across the future economic scenarios for the
region, as this has the potential to immediately diversify the composition of the local economy in
any instance.
Who? This action should be led by the State Government, with collaborative input from a wide
range of stakeholder groups, including: LGAs, community groups and business and industry.
When? Under the limited change and transition scenarios, this action should take place within the
next three to five years and under the shock scenario this action should be commenced
immediately.
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Action 8.2: Explore potential use of existing electricity transmission network

infrastructure
Currently, the Upper Hunter has an extensive electricity transmission network. Despite the
scheduled closure of Liddell and Bayswater power stations, transmission network assets can
continue to provide ready access to the power grid into the future. This is advantageous given the
significant capital expenditure required to build new transmission infrastructure.
A technical study should be undertaken analysing the implications associated with connecting new
generation or storage to the current transmission network at various points in time. This is

essential to better understand investment opportunities in the region’s energy sector. Specifically,
it would determine potential capacity constraints on the network (especially if aiming to connect
while Liddell and Bayswater are operational) and if network upgrades are required to facilitate
increased load on the network.
Who? In order to ensure the success of the above identified action, this action should be led by
the State Government coordinating implementation with necessary technical advisors and industry
(especially TransGrid).
When? Under the limited change and transition scenarios, this action should be commenced over
the next three to five years, under the shock scenario this action should be commenced
immediately. More detailed analysis will also be required on a project-by-project basis.
102
8 Potential governance
arrangements

No single community, or the problems they face, is the same. So, while there is no blueprint that
can be applied to manage the challenges the Upper Hunter region is facing, it is worth considering
how stakeholders can best support (and be supported) through the unprecedented change and
uncertainty of the region’s economic future as it unfolds.
8.1 Role of governance frameworks in community transition

Traditional approaches to economic development typically rely on getting the fundamentals right
and waiting for the market forces and flow-on effects to reach communities. However, when deep
structural changes occur, they have far-reaching impacts that demand coordinated and efficient
responses.
The management of deep structural shocks demands high-level strategic coordination between all
levels of government, across agencies and stakeholder groups to ensure tailored and appropriate
support is delivered to the region.
Clear and coordinated governance models that reflect the needs of the region and its stakeholders
provide the foundation on which strategic and efficient economic and social support can be
delivered to the community throughout all stages of its transition.
8.2 Best practice governance principles

In the context of a regional economic shock that results in significant structural change, the
development of a governance structure that is deeply connected to the needs of local community
and united under a clear policy rationale is integral to success. Ultimately, sustainable economic
growth is the result of efficiently developing and leveraging people (and their skills, knowledge,
and culture) and the structural assets and economy.
During the transition process, the success of a policy implementation that incorporates both macro
(high-level strategic response) and micro (local-level response) solutions requires clear
organisation and governance arrangements to ensure lines of accountability, responsibility,
authority, reporting and control processes are understood across both levels.
The development of a governance structure for the Upper Hunter region should be developed with
the following set of best practice principles and where possible incorporating the key lessons from
other regions that have navigated similar transitions.
Underlying principles of governance arrangements

While there exist multiple governance structures and models, an effective place-based approach to
managing the transition of the Upper Hunter will leverage the knowledge of communities (e.g.
from local industries and government bodies) to identify development potential of the region in
order to stimulate a progressive adjustment of the local economic system to the changing
economic environment. This knowledge then forms the basis for the investment logic and
prioritisation of responses that are evaluated by key decision-makers.
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Guiding Principles
• An understanding of the impact (pressures and opportunities) of emerging trends on the
communities.
• An appropriate government response is supported by a compelling theory of change and
clear outcomes orientation (i.e. long-term sustainable economic development).
• Alignment between reporting measures/indicators and the performance objectives of the
policy rationale.

• Indicators are being tracked and reported.
• Mix of high-level strategic responses (top-down development policies), and local-level
responses (bottom-up development polices).
• Organisation and governance arrangements have been established and all individuals and
groups that have a role have been identified, and their lines of accountability,
responsibility, authority, reporting and control processes are understood.
Case Study: Queensland Communities in Transition (CiT)

The Queensland Department of Environment and Science (the Department) invested $1.5
million in CiT as a pilot program to support the delivery of the Climate Transition Strategy and
the Advancing Queensland Priorities. The Clean Growth Choices Consortium was formed to
assist the Department roll out CiT to Queensland communities. The consortium is made up of
institutes and universities from both the private and research sector – a partnership between
the University of Southern Queensland, James Cook University, CSIRO and the Ecoefficiency
Group.
The Clean Growth Choices consortium works with community leaders in regional and remote
Queensland communities – Cook Shire, Charters Towers, Rockhampton, Barcaldine, Central
Highlands and Goondiwindi – conducting community consultations, and leading to the delivery
of roadmaps and business cases in relation to options for sustainable economic, social and
community transition pathways.
The initial engagement enabled the identified communities to create a community profile,
identify pressures and opportunities, and assess potential development pathways. The second
stage of engagement enabled communities to prioritise the initial pathways and identify
prospective projects for business case development. As part of CiT, it is anticipated that this
information and the ultimate business cases will be used to attract investment (both public and
private) to assist the communities to shift onto a more resilient, and sustainable, economic
growth trajectory.
Key insights: Through the governance and policy process adopted by the pilot program,
communities were engaged through an inclusive and place-based process to understand
economic trends, discuss and play a key role their region’s future in the context of disruption
and change, including a future transition to a zero net emissions economy.
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Case Study: Victorian Government, Latrobe Valley Authority

The sudden closure of both the Hazelwood coal-fired power plant and adjacent mines in 2017
led the Victorian Government to establish the intermediary agency called the Latrobe Valley
Authority (LVA) to support and manage the region’s transition process. The LVA provided
transition support for workers who lost their jobs due to the closures, promoted industry
diversification and growth, fostered the resilience of local businesses, and supported the
regeneration of the whole supply chain in the face of the inevitable decline of the economic
importance of coal for the region. Although the Authority sat within the state government, it

was autonomous in terms of setting priorities and allocating state aid for the transitional
process.
The Authority was also developed as a one-stop shop for businesses and community members
who needed support in the wake of the closure. This enabled stakeholders from any
background (i.e. community members, businesses, interest groups) who were not able to
navigate the existing governance network to directly approach the LVA for assistance and
tailored support.
In order to maximise its understanding of the transition process, the Authority developed a
selection of indicators to collect evidence about systemic change in the community – through
the development of the innovation strategy – using a Monitoring and Evaluation framework.
Although established by a top-down initiative, the success of the regional development
authority is considered largely due to its bottom-up approach to tackling challenges.
Key insights: Drawing on the LVA experience, the following are considered to be key success
factors for a transition authority:
• Governance needs to be inclusive:

– having a local team skilled and in direct relationships with the affected community
– working continually by building capacity and new projects step-by-step, putting
emphasis on long-term rather than short-term development
– using already existing local clusters and networks as a basis to further expand and
address new stakeholders.
• Make use of advance warning:
– effectively utilising any periods of advance warning of change is an effective impact-
mitigation and resilience-building measure
– work with local businesses that help lead the efforts, growing skills within the
community and building collaboration, cooperation and mutually beneficial partnerships
between key actors that previously operated in relative isolation.
8.3 Positioning for the future

Looking ahead, clarity and collaboration will be key to positioning the Upper Hunter region for the
future. The governance structure required to implement the Roadmap needs to strike the right
balance between top-down, centralised development policies and bottom-up, local and regional
development policies. While there exists a network of governance bodies, including the Upper
Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group (which reports to the Hunter and Central Coast
Regional Leadership Executive) that have been established to support the transition; the extent to
which these bodies are aligned to specific transition outcomes (i.e. clear accountability) that have
been clearly articulated to local communities and businesses could be explored.
Considering this, there is scope for existing arrangements to be load tested (within the existing
network) and to consider the streamlining of the current network of community groups with the
view to support the delivery of structured policy, funding and decision-making that is accountable
for the region.
Ultimately, this approach will drive a proactive, rather than a reactive transition that enables the
region to leverage existing strengths and prepare for transition. Identifying how existing
governance and community networks can evolve to support the transition (before the region is
subjected to a serious economic shock) represents an opportunity for the Upper Hunter.
105
The governance solution should consider:
Streamlining the existing network to identify a central body that understands the impact of
emerging trends on the region and is responsible for proactively managing the transition of the
Upper Hunter. In particular, this includes:
• monitoring and tracking transition events to identify the status of the transition in line with
the scenarios outlined in Chapter 6
• acting as a central touchpoint for community, business and industry to drive trust,

confidence and investment
• collecting and disseminating information to stakeholders
• identifying an appropriate mix of strategic (top-down) and local-level (bottom-up)
responses as appropriate with the status of the region’s transition
• ensuring a collaborative and proactive governance model to specifically address issues of
economic change.
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9 Communications plan
A communications plan is crucial for creating a strategy for sending clear messages to
stakeholders and building consensus on the future of the Upper Hunter region. This section sets
out:

• the purpose of communications
• the steps for creating an effective communications plan
• a high-level communications plan for the Upper Hunter future project.
9.1 The purpose of communications

Ongoing stakeholder engagement and robust governance arrangements are critical to support the
roadmap for inclusive growth for the Upper Hunter region. Without a specific communications plan,
the roadmap and the importance of the underlying economic scenarios may not be well understood
by the community and may result in the roadmap actions not being effectively implemented.
Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement and governance on Upper Hunter futures requires
strategic communications that:
• brings people together through an inclusive holistic message

• clearly articulates the potential of the future, recognising opportunities as well as challenges
• encourages participation by delegating actions and accountabilities within the community.
By bringing people together, communications can avoid creating a ‘winners and losers’ narrative to
change which can cause community friction. Focusing on the potential will engage stakeholders in
a positive collective vision which will help promote collaboration and the suspension of self-
interest. Participation by all in the community, and clear accountability for different stakeholder
groups for actions, will increase the likelihood of actions being undertaken and create a sense of
personal and collective ownership.
The stakeholder engagement that was undertaken as part of preparing this report indicates a high
level of interest by different stakeholders to actively participate in the ongoing dialogue about the
future of the region. This level of engagement is a key strength of the Upper Hunter community
that should be leveraged to implement the roadmap actions. There is also an expectation from
stakeholders that they will be meaningfully updated and engaged. A communications plan that is
fit-for-purpose must take this context into account and set this as a key objective.
9.2 Steps for creating an effective communications plan

An effective communications plan requires:
1. Planning the engagement: The first step of a communications plan is to identify the key
objectives and messages that need to be communicated. This often involves significant internal
discussion to build consensus on the key messages, any risks of communication, the level of
detail required to effectively communicate the message and consideration of any sensitivities
with the key messages. This step should also include consideration of who is best placed to
communicate key messages, the influence that others can play in supporting key messages
and whether encouraging dialogue is important to meeting the objectives of the
communication.
2. Understanding the operating environment: The second step involves considering the
context in which an organisation will deliver its key messages. Communication does not occur
in a vacuum, and a communication plan should consider the formal and informal ways that an
organisation may already be communicating with its stakeholders. In addition, considering how
stakeholders already receive information from other organisations can help avoid duplicating
communication methods or messages, avoiding an ‘information overload’ for stakeholders.
3. Identifying stakeholders: The third step requires broad consideration of the different
stakeholder groups and the key messages that relate to each stakeholder group. In identifying
107
each stakeholder, it is important to consider the concerns and challenges each group might
face but also the capability, expertise and resources that they can offer in owning and
supporting key messages. This might mean identifying different categories of stakeholders
within each stakeholder group, such as influencers, champions, critics or sceptics. This will also
help tailor communications with a greater focus on the most critical stakeholders, and a less
intensive approach for others.
4. Tailoring methods: The fourth step requires considering the methods that will best meet
individual stakeholder needs. Given the quantity of information that is available in our society

today and the ease of multimedia communications, community and stakeholder expectations
are high. This means that communications are expected to be engaging, well designed, use
visual and infographic formats and use plain language to communicate a message. There are
also expectations that communications are two-way and encourage input and dialogue from
different groups. Therefore, a range of methods should be considered when designing an
approach to meet the purpose of the communication and the needs of different stakeholder
groups.
5. Sharing findings and evaluations: A final but ongoing step requires a regular feedback loop
with stakeholders to ensure that communications are designed based on the stated needs of
stakeholder groups, recognition of previous input or consultation processes, and a proactive
evaluation of whether communication messages were received and if the purpose of the
communication was met.
108

9.3 Indicative communications plan

A communications plan is a document that captures the purpose and intended actions. Based on this report and the roadmap actions, the following steps
and actions should form the basis of the communications plan.
Theme Action Sept 2020- Dec Jan 2021-June Beyond

2020 2021
Plan our engagement Internal team discussion about the report and its recommendations
Identify the key messages that need to be communicated and set a clear purpose for the
communications plan
Based on report recommendations, develop an action plan with who should be involved for taking
actions forward *
Consider whether the report will be publicly released
Understand operating Understand the existing mechanisms for stakeholder engagement. Analyse and understand whether they
environment are fit for purpose and meeting their objectives
Identify stakeholders Ascertain which groups need to be informed about the report and develop an action plan **
Send emails to thank stakeholder groups for participating in consultations with a feedback form ***
Tailor stakeholder engagement From feedback and current state analysis, develop a stakeholder engagement plan
methods
Consider how to disseminate report findings and recommendations to stakeholder groups ****
From report recommendations, decide if working groups should be formed to take actions forward
Develop Terms of Reference for each working group
Develop catered dissemination material for each stakeholder group
Develop a social media plan to engage young people, including expression of interest for a youth advisory
panel
Share the Findings Release materials to stakeholder groups
Release an expression of interest for working groups that have been identified in the actions
Form community working groups and inform them of their role
Evaluation Provide feedback forums for stakeholders and the public
Map effectiveness of dissemination
Determine how to continuously engage stakeholders
109

* The action plan should involve how to address each of the recommendations, who should be involved and who should be informed
** Key groups that should be considered are those Deloitte approached in focus group discussions. These include Indigenous Australians, education and training
providers (including industry representatives), social and community service providers, and the four Councils of the region. Other groups to consider include the
general public, young people and health and mental health providers.
*** Provide a feedback form to stakeholders to consider how they want to engage moving forward
**** Examples could be creating a one-page document of report recommendations to upload on the DRNSW or UP website
***** From recommendations, working groups should include skills and training, community, social and health services. As per section 7.5 a youth advisory panel that acts
as a sub working group in each working group should be considered.
110
Upper Hunter
futures –
– final
final report
report
Appendices
111
– Stakeholder
Engagement Plan

Below are those who attended one-on-one or focus group consultations, as part of the stakeholder
engagement component.
112
Upper Hunter Futures
Stakeholder Engagement Plan
Current as at 17 July 2020
Contents
Section Page
1. Stakeholder engagement overview 4
2. Stakeholder identification 7
3. Stakeholder consultation plans 10

• Overview 11-12
• One-on-one consultation overview 13
• Focus Group overview 17
• Council Focus Group 19
• Education Focus Group 23
• Peak Body Focus Group 28
• Social Focus Group 33
• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Focus Group 38
© 2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CONFIDENTIAL 2

1. Stakeholder engagement overview
© 2020 Deloitte Access Economics. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CONFIDENTIAL 3

1. Introduction
Purpose
The purpose of the stakeholder engagement plan is to outline the approach and plan to engage and
evaluate stakeholder consultations. Careful stakeholder engagement planning will ensure valuable
insights are gained from a variety of priority stakeholders.
This plan includes:
• Overview of stakeholder engagement: including the purpose, and terms of reference, intended
outcomes and consultation principles
• Identification of stakeholders: this includes development of a stakeholder matrix and how

stakeholders were prioritised.
• Stakeholder consultation plan: including how consultations will be organised and conducted,, and
the approach for the consultations.

1. Overview of stakeholder engagement
Our approach
Our approach to stakeholder engagement will be to study the current state, to provide us a basis in
identifying key stakeholders to consult with. Our consultations will be based around identifying
needs, through a collective vision, and then identifying capabilities which could enable opportunity
in the Upper Hunter region.
To identify and prioritise the voices of stakeholders

who may have been excluded from previous
consultations. This process will include:
• Identifying, from the current state review, which

groups have been underrepresented and for what
reason. To identify the key roles different
stakeholders play in providing job
• Conducting further research to identify other opportunity and social participation. This
stakeholders who could enable opportunity in the will include:
Current State region, to include in consultations. Collective
• Gearing certain consultations towards
Review Vision
• Applying 4(d) stakeholders who can enable economic
4(d) o identify prioritization of these growth and job opportunity within the
To understand who the key stakeholders are stakeholders. To thematically collate stakeholders’ perspectives region.
of the Upper Hunter Region, and what their on land use and infrastructure investment to
• Filtering process - Utilising the Stakeholder Matrix, create a bigger picture ‘Upper Hunter Vision from • Identifying of potential
needs and priorities are. This review will
the People.’ This will be done through: capabilities/partnerships and how they
include: we are able to identify the types of stakeholders
could fit into the future of the Upper
and how to best engage with them. This will
• Conducting desktop research to understand • Applying a thematic analysis to the stakeholder Hunter Region.
enable us to prioritize consultations given the
stakeholders, their particular contexts and consultations we will streamline and analyse
timeframe. feedback. These themes will include; vision,
relationship to the Upper Hunter Region.
barriers, diversification, enablers and partnerships.
Creating a stakeholder map to illustrate the
Identifying Key Key Enablers for
ecosystem of stakeholders.
Stakeholders • Each stakeholder consultation will focus on
Workforce
• An assessment of consultations that have meeting the relevant objectives in each identified
occurred in the past and key findings that thematic group.
have emerged from them.
Pre-consultations Consultations
1. Overview of stakeholder engagement
Engagement principles Engagement charter
In order to assist with these considerations, 4(d)

Developing key principles for consultations creates a shared understanding among all parties
based on our experience in working on transformational
regarding the approach that will be adopted. 4(d)
projects. The tool identifies a number of factors that are key to ensuring that investment
Five consultation principles will guide this project. These principles will drive how we approach is accessible by the community, delivers on community benefits and provides
the stakeholder engagement process and conduct our consultations. opportunities for community activation and fosters a sense of belonging.
These principles are particularly important given the impacts of COVID-19 on numerous The charter identifies factors that must be considered in considering broad social inclusion
organisations and businesses. The principles and our associated actions have been and community vibrancy. Although economic activity, industry and employment are key
summarised in below. focus areas for the Upper Hunter project, the framework in describing and assessing the
other factors and barriers that exclude certain groups. These factors will be used as key
questions in stakeholder engagement, especially to explore mitigation of societal costs.
Principle Our practice
As a social planning tool, the framework also identifies practical measures, based on
existing practice and data, that can inform the future vision for the Upper Hunter Region.
to be respectful of stakeholder’s time, and the unique insights they
Targeted and Tailored
bring
Community vibrancy & inclusion charter
to ensure there are clear outcomes for the Department, and a cost-
Represents Value
effective approach is adopted Access Belonging Activation
Measures
Clear and consistent so all stakeholders understand the role of the consultation process,
messaging expected outputs and outcomes,
so the right people are engaged and there is a focus on issues of

• Physical • Diversity • Economic
Designed for impact Affordability • Spaces productivity
contention and hearing new or marginalised voices
Factors
• Information • Interaction • Employment
so that people can contribute to the process without compromising
• Services • Participation Education
Flexible • Safety • Identity • Housing
their other commitments
Example Example Example

measures: measures: measures:
Domain
Concessions, Availability of Workforce
Available space for participation by
amenities community groups

2. Stakeholder identification

2. Identification of stakeholders
Stakeholder Map
Stakeholder mapping
There are numerous stakeholders involved, interested and impacted by the economic diversification of
the Upper Hunter. The following maps out these stakeholders, and the roles they are expected to play.
Racing NSW
Cordina Group
Australian Stock
Key Stakeholder Groups
Horse Society
Hunter
Business Chamber
• Community stakeholders – these are the people and
Scone Equine Hospital HunterNet
organisations that will be ultimately impacted by changes
Hunter Thoroughbred in the economic diversification of the Upper Hunter, and
Group Executive
Committee for Hunter Port of Newcastle
Breeders Association
thus have a direct interest. Community and stakeholder
the Hunter Valley Network, Federal Government input will directly shape the project, informing and
NSW Department ARTC
of Education Business & responding to the communications approach.
Industry (Mining/coal) Department of Planning I
Industry and Environment
Hunter Regional Upper Hunter Community-
Destination NSW • Key stakeholders – Stakeholders who have control over
Leadership Group Social
(RLG) Capital & Community Voice the decisions being made or whose support is required to
Investors
HMRI achieve outcomes, such as government departments and
Member for the
Upper Hunter agencies who have a direct interest from a whole-of-
Glencore Working Group
Singleton Army Base government perspective.
NSW Health Yancoal
(Hunter New England
Health District) Hunter Valley
Community of the Upper Hunter
PCG • Impacted stakeholders– Stakeholders who will be
Hunter Renewal
Agrifutures Coal Chain directly impacted by decisions, such as industry sectors
Coordinator
Training Services NSW Upper Hunter Community Services Hunter Region
including mining and agriculture, and key advocacy
Hunter and Central Coast Employment Facilitator groups with high membership and influence.
Development Corporation
AGL
University of Newcastle NSW Crown
Singleton Shire Council Lands Commissioner
Local Chambers
Dungog Shire Council of Commerce
Muswellbrook Council
Newcastle Institute for Upper Hunter Shire Council

Energy and Resources (NIER
Transport for NSW
NSW Dept. of
Primary Industries
RDA

2. Identification of stakeholders
Stakeholder matrix
As investigated above, there are numerous stakeholders the following outlines our approach to
determining who to prioritise engagement with and also how to best engage these stakeholders
Stakeholder type Approach

High Power, Low Interest High Power, High Interest
• Involve in decision‐making and governance bodies
Meet their needs Key player
High Power, Low • Consult regularly through direct engagement and
Influence\Power of stakeholders
Keep satisfied Engage closely

Interest face-to-face meetings
• Briefings, where necessary.
• Engage and consult on interest areas
High Power, High • Aim to increase interest
Interest • Keep informed
• Communications plan targets this wider audience to

Low Power, Low
Low Power, Low Interest Low Power, High Interest ensure appropriate coverage
Interest
• Dissemination of informative written collateral
Least important Show consideration • Information sessions, where necessary
Minimal engagement Keep informed
• Communications plan targets this wider audience to
Low Power, High ensure appropriate coverage
Interest • Dissemination of informative written collateral
Interest of stakeholders

3. Stakeholder Consultation Plans

3. Stakeholder consultation plan overview
Introduction
Given the diverse number of stakeholders identified, the project timeframe, and the many forms
stakeholder consultation can take, we have proposed two key methods of engagement: targeted
one-on-one meetings and focus groups. Each of these methods are detailed below and the way in
which this supports the identified stakeholder cohort.
Purpose of targeted one-on-one meetings
To provide deep insights on the topics and detailed discussion. Method will be most useful for
engaging with senior stakeholders and those identified as being high influence and high interest
Purpose of focus groups
To promote interaction between different organisations/individuals to discuss particular issues or

themes. This can be helpful to draw out nuances and tease out differences of opinions.
Each of the focus groups incorporate a pre-work activity for participants. This pre-work acts as a
baseline to understand how each participant views each of the key themes and helps to ensure
active engagement.

3. Stakeholder consultation plan overview – key themes
Stakeholder consultation themes
Stakeholder consultations will be thematic, ensuring meaningful engagement and consultation. The
following outlines our proposed consultation themes.
Key themes Description
Confirming the envisioned future of the Upper Hunter Region and how it will function and look like.
Vision
Surfacing how economic diversification of the Upper Hunter Region could be navigated, taking into
Diversification account key processes, risks and timeframes
Identifying barriers to employment, social inclusion and training within the Upper Hunter region and
Barriers (social, employment & what mechanisms could reduce/mitigate these and provide more accessibility, both in the context of
training)
diversification and more broadly
Identifying capabilities and opportunities stakeholders could provide to enhance economic growth,
Key Enablers / Infrastructure
needs job opportunity and greater special participation in the Upper Hunter Region
Identifying opportunities for partnerships with stakeholders, both within and out of the community,
Partnerships who could provide more opportunity within the Upper Hunter Region. Exploring how these
opportunities would provide impact.

13

One-on-one Consultations
© 2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

One-on-one consultations
Stakeholder Key Contact Draft Questions Themes Attended/Contribut

ed (Y/N)
This meeting will be a combination of a briefing on the project and an interview.
• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter and its key strengths?
Member for • What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction?
Vision
the Upper • What are the most critical areas of economic development? Y
Hunter • What industries can best leverage the existing regional workforce?
• What are the top three infrastructure requirements to support the region?
• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time?
• What are the current plans for re-purposing the Liddell and Bayswater sites? What stage of Vision
development are those plans at, and what is the market interest? Are there any barriers to achieving
those plans?
Diversification
AGL • What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required? Y
• How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within
the region? Is additional infrastructure required? Is government support required?
• How can the Liddell and Bayswater sites act as a catalyst for other economic activity or industries Barriers
elsewhere in the region?
3(a) and 3(b)
• Based on what we know today, what might the mining industry look like in the Upper Hunter in 5, 10
Vision
and 15 years’ time?
• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to mining buffer lands? Barriers
Glencore • What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to rehabilitated mining lands?
Y
Barriers
• How can the mining industry act as a catalyst for other economic activity or industries elsewhere in the
region?
• Broadly, what do you think the Upper Hunter regional economy will look like in 10 years’ time? Key Enablers /
• Is water access an enabler or barrier to economic activity, and how does this vary across the Upper Infrastructure needs
Hunter? How might this change over the next 5, 10 and 15 years?
DPIE Water • How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within
Y
the region?
• Is additional infrastructure required to facilitate economic diversification?
One-on-one consultations
Stakeholder Key Contact Draft Questions Themes Attended/Contributed (Y/N)
• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter?

• What are the key advantages of the Upper Hunter, relative to other regions, in terms of its industries or Vision
businesses, infrastructure and people?
• What are the key opportunities for the Upper Hunter region, based on its existing industries and
Newcastle infrastructure? Diversification
Institute for • What might be the barriers in realising those opportunities? What could be done to address them?
Energy and • What are the current research initiatives relevant to the Upper Hunter? Y
Resources • What are the current operations at UoN Upper Hunter? Are there future opportunities or uses for the Barriers
(NIER) site? Are there further opportunities for non-site specific collaboration?
• What (if any) are the barriers to regional supply chains? Can regional supply chains be leveraged to Partnerships
support new industry development?
• What are the economic linkages of the equine industry throughout the Upper Hunter region and
Vision
beyond?
Arrowfield • What is your vision for the industry in the Upper Hunter?
• Y
Stud What are the infrastructure and land use needs/priorities?
• What makes the Upper Hunter attractive or unattractive from an investment perspective? What are the Barriers
3(a) and 3(b) barriers to investment?
• How does the development of Upper Hunter align with the future of businesses in the industry?
• Based on what we know today, what might the mining industry look like in the Upper Hunter in 5, 10 Partnerships
and 15 years’ time?
• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to mining buffer lands?
NSW Minerals Vision
• What are the barriers and opportunities in relation to rehabilitated mining lands? Y
Council • How can current infrastructure be shared or re-purposed to facilitate economic diversification within
• How can the mining industry act as a catalyst for other economic activity or industries elsewhere in the
region? Barriers
Hunter • What is the anticipated need for the existing workforce? Is any re-training required? Vision
Business • What is your vision for the industry in the Upper Hunter?
• Y
Attraction How does the development of Upper Hunter align with the future of businesses in the industry?
Partnerships
Committee
© 2020 Deloitte Touche T CONFIDENTIAL 15
16

Focus Groups

Focus Groups Summary
Focus Groups across the Upper Hunter
Key stakeholder Consultation Identified bodies Themes

groups pathway
Upper Hunter Focus groups • Singleton Council Key Enablers /

Vision
Councils Focus • Muswellbrook Shire Council Infrastructure needs
Group • Upper Hunter Shire Council
• Hunter Joint Organisation Barriers Diversification
Education Focus Focus groups • Training Services NSW

Group • Hunter TAFE
Vision Key Enablers
• Dept of Education
• RDA Hunter
• Hunter Region Employment Facilitator
• University of Newcastle Barriers Diversification
• Hunter Joint Organisation
Peak Bodies and Focus groups • Committee for the Hunter
Businesses Focus • HunterNet Vision
Group • Hunter Business Chamber
• AI Group
• DRNSW Barriers Diversification

Focus Groups Summary
Focus Groups across the Upper Hunter
Key stakeholder Consultation Identified bodies Themes

groups pathway
Social and Human Focus groups • NSW Health (Hunter New England Health District)
Services Focus • NSW Police (Hunter Valley Police District) Vision Key Enablers
Group • Upper Hunter Community Services
• Compass Housing
• Hunter Renewal
Barriers
• Singleton Family Support
Aboriginal & Focus Groups • Wonnarua Nation
Torres Strait • Tocomwall Key Enablers /
Islander Focus • Blackrock Industries Vision
Infrastructure needs
Group • Hunter Valley Aboriginal Corporation
• Aboriginal Employment Strategy
• Barkuma Barriers Diversification
• Karuah Local Aboriginal Land Council
• Mindaribba Local Aboriginal Land Council
• Upper Hunter Community Services
• Ungooroo Aboriginal Corporation

Upper Hunter Councils Focus Group
© 2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu 19

Workshop background Engagement charter – invited attendees
Participants Role Attended/Contri

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with the Dungog, Muswellbrook, Singleton and Upper
buted (Y/N)
Hunter Shire Councils on the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic
diversification and resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other
plans currently underway, including the review of the Hunter Regional Plan and the work of Y
Dungog Shire
the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group.
Council
Workshop time Y
Wednesday 8 July 2020, 11.00am – 12.30pm Y
Upper Hunter Shire

Platform: Zoom.
Council
Y
Workshop objectives
• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of region Y
• Agree and identify critical barriers to economic diversification

Y
Muswellbrook
Shire Council
• Prioritise action and investment 3(a) and 3(b)
Achieving economic diversification
Y
Current barriers and challenges to economic diversity Y
Singleton Council
Key themes and
Skills and training Y
lines of enquiry
Land use Y
Social impact
Organisa
Hunter
Joint
tion
Y

Workshop approach Pre-workshop email
The workshop will be conducted virtually via the Zoom platform. In order to keep participants Dear [insert name],
engaged, we will use a combination of facilitated discussion, the chat function and menti to elicit
Thank you for your participation in the workshop next Wednesday 8 July at 11.00am.
written responses. To facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on participants by name
individually to ensure all voices are heard. Please see the attached agenda. We have designed the workshop to use the full functionality of zoom
(chat function, slide presentation etc) so ask that participants join by videoconference not teleconference.
A “sprint” approach will be used to split the workshop into discreet areas of discussion to ensure
that we cover the breadth of issues. To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with four key discussion areas that
we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth of issues.
We will also seek brief information from participants prior to the workshop. This won’t be labour
intensive to encourage response. This approach helps participants prepare and collect their In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following questions to set
thoughts in advance, which results in more productive discussion on the day. the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by midday Tuesday 7 July. Only one
or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This will help us focus on the key issues
Agenda during the workshop.
Session Time • What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter and its key strengths?
1. Welcome and introductions 11.00am – 11.10am • What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction?
2. Quick overview 11.10am –11.15am
• What are the most critical areas of agreement and conflict in economic development?
3. Discussion area 1 :Key challenges and achieving economic 11.15am – 11.40am
diversification • What social impacts need to be considered or addressed through economic diversification?
4. Discussion area 2: Skills and training 11.40am – 11.55am
• What are the top three infrastructure requirements and actions by governments to support economic
5. Discussion area 3: Land Use 11.55am – 12.10pm diversification?
6. Discussion area 4: Social impact 12.10pm –12.25pm We look forward to seeing you on Wednesday.
7. Wrap up discussion and next steps 12.25pm – 12.30pm
Regards,
Etc.

Workshop Plan
Session Time Purpose Materials/Approach Facilitator
Welcome 11.00am Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where

from, one word for today”
Quick overview 11.10am • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project Slide with agenda and
• Introduce ‘parking space’ for important issues that can’t be explored in workshop objectives. 3(a) and 3(b)
• Set the scene by presenting pre-work to group

Slide presenting
information from pre-
work.
Discussion area 1: 11.15am Get Council perspective on the following issues: Facilitated plenary
Economic • What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction in the region? discussion
Diversification What factors have impeded economic diversification to date?
• What are the key factors of advantage within each Council area that could be leveraged in
achieving economic diversification?
• What are the future priority sectors across each Council area in supporting economic
diversification? What industries best match the region’s factors of advantage?
• How can legacy mining assets be leveraged to support future economic diversification? What
are the genuine opportunities?
• How critical is increasing economic linkages with the Lower Hunter in supporting future
economic diversification? How can economic linkages be enhanced?
• How may water security across the region impact the achievement of economic
diversification?

Workshop Plan (cont.)
Discussion area 11.40am Get Council perspective on the following issues: Post-it chat function –
2: Skills and • What industries are likely to be able to best leverage the education and skills of existing write down three each
Training workers in the region? individually.
• What are the critical skills gaps among the regional workforce? What key training programs
are required, and how should these be delivered? Menti or plenary
• Does the regional have the requisite training facilities to support the needs of future discussion to prioritise for
industries? region
Discussion area 11.55am Get Council perspective on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
3: Land Use • What are the key land use issues affecting economic development in each Council area?
• How are land use planning arrangements supporting (or impeding) regional investment? Are
there specific changes required to support investment attraction?
• How may mining rehabilitation impact future economic development in the region? What are 3(a) and 3(b)
the critical issues relevant to competing land uses?
Discussion area 12.10pm Get Council perspective on the following issues:

4: Social impacts • What are the key community aspirations for economic diversification? Are these viable? Post-it chat function –
• What would be the social and community impacts of reduced industry activity and available write down three each
jobs? individually.
• What programs are needed to support more young people and Indigenous Australians into
the workforce? Menti or plenary
• What can be done to encourage young people to stay, work and play in the Upper Hunter? discussion to prioritise for
region
Wrap up and 12.25pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise issues not already discussed. Plenary discussion
next steps • Provide a forum for identifying any data or information to be shared from participants

24

Education Focus Group

Workshop background Engagement charter
Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of education and training stakeholders as Key Body Participant Attended/Contributed (Y/N)
part of the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic diversification and
resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other plans currently
underway, including the review of the Hunter Regional Plan and the work of the Upper Hunter University of N
Economic Diversification Working Group. Newcastle Y
Training N
Workshop time
Services NSW Y
• Monday 27 July 2020, 1:30pm – 3:00pm Hunter TAFE Y
• Platform: Zoom
Workshop objectives Department N

of Education
• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of education and
employment across the region 3(a) and 3(b)
• Identify critical barriers to community uptake of education, access to employment and RDA Hunter Y
potential to re-skill the labour force
• Identify partnerships and programs that can be leveraged to provide better outcomes in Hunter Y
these areas Region
Employment
Current and future barriers and challenges to employment and Facilitator
education
Hunter Joint Y
Key themes and Organisation
Skills and re-training
lines of enquiry
Partnerships to deliver better outcomes

engaged, we will use a combination of facilitated discussions and virtual post it discussions. To
Thank you for your participation in the workshop next [insert date and time].
facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on participants by name individually to ensure all
voices are heard. Please see the attached agenda. We have designed the workshop to use the full functionality of
zoom (chat function, slide presentation etc) so ask that participants join by videoconference not
teleconference.
that we cover the breadth of issues.
To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with four key discussion
areas that we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth of
intensive to encourage response. This approach helps participants prepare and collect their
issues.
thoughts in advance, which results in more productive discussion on the day.
In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following
Agenda questions to set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by [insert
midday before date of workshop]. Only one or two sentences is needed in response to the
Session Time following questions. This will help us focus on the key issues during the workshop.
1. Welcome and introductions 1:30pm – 1:35pm • What do you see as emerging (both education-focused and industry-focused) opportunities in
2. Quick overview 1:35pm – 1:40pm
the region?
3. Discussion area 1 : Skills and re-training 1:45pm – 2:15pm • What are the most critical education and training needs for the regional workforce?
4. Discussion area 2: Current and future needs and challenges 2:15pm – 2:35pm • What are the most critical skills gaps in the region in terms of attracting new industries?
5. Discussion area 3: Partnerships to deliver better outcomes 2:35pm – 2:50pm • What are the biggest skill or training barriers to workers transitioning between sectors?
6. Wrap up discussion and next steps 2:50pm – 3:00pm
• What are key barriers in accessing (either in-person or online) education and training courses
in the region?
• What key actions are required to promote greater community uptake of education?
• Which partnerships can be further developed or leveraged to deliver better regional education
and employment outcomes?
We look forward to seeing you on [insert workshop day].

© 2020 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Regards, 26
Workshop plan
Welcome 1:30pm – 1:35pm Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where

Quick overview 1:35pm – 1:40pm • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project Slide with agenda and
• Introduce ‘parking space’ for important issues that can’t be explored in workshop objectives.
Slide presenting
information from pre-work.
Discussion area 1: 1:45pm – 2:15pm Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
Skills and re- • What are the key skills and training strengths of the region? What industries are likely to be able to
training best leverage the education and skills of existing workers in the region? 3(a) and 3(b)
• What are the most critical education and training needs for regional industry and businesses, both
now and into the future?
• What are the industry-specific training programs are required, and how should these be delivered?
Specifically, what training is required to assist workers seeking to transition between key industries?
• Does the regional have access to the requisite training facilities (including online e-training platforms)
to support the needs of future industries?
Discussion area 2:15pm – 2:35pm Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
2: Current and • What are the key barriers to accessing education and training in the region? Are the barriers more
future needs and pronounced for specific cohorts – e.g. younger residents (15-24 years), older workers (45 years and
challenges over) and Indigenous Australians? How might this change in the future? How can these barriers be
addressed?
• To what extent is access education and training programs impeding workers’ ability to transition
between industries and occupations?
• What is the future vision for the community in terms of education- both vocational and tertiary - and
upskilling of workers?

Workshop plan (cont.)
Discussion area 2:35pm – 2:50pm Get perspective on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
3: Partnerships • Which current and future partnerships can be further developed or leveraged to achieve
to deliver better better education and employment outcomes?
outcomes • Are there any specific examples of successful partnerships?
• How are education providers and industry currently partnering to ensure the specific training 3(a) and 3(b)
needs of industry are delivered? What, if any, improvements are required?

• What are factors that could promote greater community uptake of education?
Wrap up and 2:50pm – 3:00pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise opportunities not already discussed. Plenary discussion

Peak Bodies and Businesses Focus Group

Peak Industry Bodies and Businesses Focus Group
Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of peak industry bodies and businesses as Key Body Participant Attended/Contributed
stakeholders in the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic (Y/N)
diversification and resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other
plans currently underway, including the review of the Hunter Regional Plan and the work of
Committee Y
the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group.
for the
Workshop time Hunter
HunterNet Y
• Tuesday, 28 July 2020 2:30-4:00pm
• Platform: Zoom
Hunter Y
Workshop objectives Business 3(a) and 3(b)
Chamber
• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of the region AI Group Y
• Understand key barriers to, and opportunities for, regional economic diversification
DRNSW Y
• What are the key policy, infrastructure investment and industry attraction actions necessary
to enable the region to fulfil its economic potential
Current and future barriers and challenges to industry attraction and

economic diversity
Achieving economic diversification

Key themes and
lines of enquiry Skills and training
Land use
Fulfilling the region’s potential

Thank you for your participation in the workshop next [insert date and time].
facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on participants by name individually to ensure all
voices are heard. Please see the attached agenda. We have designed the workshop to use the full functionality of
teleconference.
To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with four key discussion areas
that we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth of issues.
thoughts in advance, which results in more productive discussion on the day. In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following questions to
set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by [insert midday before
Agenda date of workshop]. Only one or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This
will help us focus on the key issues during the workshop.
Session Time
1. Welcome and introductions
• What is your vision for the future of the Upper Hunter and its key strengths?
2:30pm – 2:35pm
2. Quick overview • What are the key barriers to economic development and investment attraction?
2:35pm – 2:40pm
3. Discussion area 1: Achieving economic diversification 2:40pm – 2:55pm • What are the most critical areas of economic development?
4. Discussion area 2: Barriers and challenges to economic diversity 2:55pm – 3:10pm • What industries can best leverage the existing regional workforce skills?
5. Discussion area 3: Skills and training 3:10pm – 3:25pm • What are the top three infrastructure requirements and actions by governments to support
6. Discussion area 4: Land use considerations economic diversification?
3:25pm – 3:40pm
7. Discussion area 5: Fulfilling the region’s potential 3:40pm – 3:55pm We look forward to seeing you on [insert day of the workshop].
8. Wrap up discussion and next steps 3:55pm – 4:00pm Regards,
Etc.

Workshop Plan
Welcome 2:30pm – 2:35pm Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where

Quick overview 2:35pm – 2:40pm • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project Slide with agenda and
Slide presenting
work.
Achieving • What are the key regional factors/strengths of advantage that can be leveraged to support
economic economic diversification? 3(a) and 3(b)
diversification • What industries best match the region’s factors of advantage?
• How can legacy mining assets be leveraged to support future economic diversification? What
are the genuine opportunities?
• How critical is increasing economic linkages with Newcastle, and the Lower Hunter in general,
in supporting future economic diversification? How can the region leverage its proximity to
Newcastle to support economic diversification?
Barriers and • What are the key barriers to economic development in the region?
challenges to • What are the key factors impeding regional investment attraction?
economic • What, if any, are the key regional infrastructure investment gaps?
diversity • How may water security across the region impact the achievement of economic
diversification?


3: Skills and • What industries are likely to be able to best leverage the education and skills of existing
training workers in the region?
• What are the critical skills gaps among the regional workforce? What are the training needs of
those industries considered to be most prospective?
• What key training programs are required to re-deploy workers, and how should these be
delivered?
• Does the regional have the requisite access to training facilities/institutions (including online e-
training) to support the needs of future industries?
4: Land use • What are the key land use issues affecting industry development and business attraction in the
considerations region? Is this a key issue for business and industry?
• Are there specific changes required to land use planning arrangements to support investment 3(a) and 3(b)
attraction?
• Are there specific issues relating to mining buffer zones and mine site rehabilitation practices
impacting industry attraction?
• What are the critical issues relevant to competing land uses?
5: Fulfilling the • What are the critical infrastructure investments needed to support the region in fulfilling its
region’s potential? What government policy actions are required? What investment attraction activities
potential are necessary?
• What opportunities are emerging for the region as a result of the changes to workplace
arrangements from COVID-19? How can the region position itself in a post-COVID world?
Wrap up and 3:55pm – 4:00pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise opportunities not already discussed. Plenary discussion

Social and Human Services Focus Group

Key Body Participant Attended/Contributed (Y/N)

Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of social and community service providers
as stakeholders in the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic
diversification and resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other NSW Health N
(Hunter New
England Health
the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group. District)
Workshop time NSW Police Y

(Singleton Police
• Friday 24 July 2020, 9:30am – 11:00am Station)
• Platform: Zoom Upper Hunter Y

Community
Services
Workshop objectives
Compass Housing Y
• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of social and human
services in the region
3(a) and 3(b)
• Identify partnerships and programs that can be leveraged to provide better outcomes in
these areas
• Identify possible services and infrastructure to improve social outcomes in the region Hunter Renewal Y
New Economies Y
Network
Future vision for the community
Dungog Shire N
Council
Key themes and
Current and future opportunities and partnerships
lines of enquiry Department of N
Regional NSW
Services and infrastructure needed to improve social outcomes Singleton Family Y
Support

The workshop will be conducted virtually via the Zoom platform. In order to keep participants Dear (Insert name),
facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on participants by name individually to ensure all We look forward to your participation in the workshop on Friday 24 July at 9:30am.
voices are heard.
Please see the attached agenda. We have designed the workshop to use the full functionality of
teleconference. To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an agenda with three key
We will also seek brief information from participants prior to the workshop. This won’t be labour discussion areas that we will explore in 15 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that we cover the breadth
intensive to encourage response. This approach helps participants prepare and collect their of issues.
In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following questions to
set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by midday Thursday 23 July.
Agenda Only one or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This will help us focus on
the key issues during the workshop.
Session Time
1. Welcome and introductions • What is your vision of an inclusive community going forward?
9:30am – 9:40am
• What is one key change or investment needed to deliver the vision?
2. Quick overview 9:40am – 9:45am
• What are the three most important social issues in the region?
3. Discussion area 1: Vision for the community 9:45am – 10:15am • What do you see as the barriers to social inclusion in the region?
4. Discussion area 2: Services and infrastructure needed to improve 10:15am – 10:30am • How can young people be encouraged to stay in the region?
social outcomes
5. Discussion area 3: Current and future opportunities and partnerships 10:30am – 10:45am
We look forward to seeing you on Friday.
6. Wrap up discussion and next steps 10:45am – 11:00am
Kind Regards,

Workshop Plan
Welcome 9:30am – 9:40am Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where

Quick overview 9:40am – 9:45am • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project Slide with agenda and
Slide presenting
information from pre- 3(a) and 3(b)
work.
Discussion area 1: 9:45am – 10:15am Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
Vision for the • What is your vision of an inclusive community going forward?
community • Who are the key cohorts of focus in the region in your opinion?
• What are the barriers to social inclusion, employment or education? How can these be
addressed?
• What are the expected social and community impacts from the economic diversification
expected in the region?

Discussion area 10:15am – 10:30am Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
2: Requisite • What are the needs for housing, health, social and community services and are these
infrastructure inclusive?
and services • What is the current state of social and community services? Are their gaps?
• Does the region have the requisite facilities to support the needs of the community?
• What community events, services or infrastructure would help create more equitable and
inclusive outcomes?
• What can be done to encourage young people to stay, work and play in the Upper Hunter?
• What programs are needed to support more young people and Indigenous Australians into
the workforce?
Discussion area 10:30am – 10:45am Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion 3(a) and 3(b)
3: Current and • What are the current partnerships in place to support the community and can these be
future leveraged further?
opportunities • What are the partnerships in place to support young adults in particular?
and partnerships • What are the partnerships in place to support Indigenous Australians?
• Are there examples of strong social networks across the region?
• Are there new opportunities for partnerships across or beyond the Upper Hunter region?
Wrap up and 10:45am – 11:00am • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise issues not already discussed. Plenary discussion

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Focus Group

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Focus Group

Key Body Participant Attended/Contributed (Y/N)
Deloitte has been engaged to consult with a variety of social and community service providers
as stakeholders in the Upper Hunter Futures project. The project will explore economic
diversification and resiliency for the region. The results of the project will also inform other Wanaruah Local Aboriginal Y
Land Council
the Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Working Group. Wonnarua Nation Y
Workshop time Tocomwall N
Blackrock Industries N
• Tuesday 28 July 2020, 11.00am – 1:00pm
Hunter Valley Aboriginal Y
• Venue: Singleton TBC Corporation
Workshop objectives Aboriginal Employment N

Strategy
3(a) and 3(b)
• Provide local information and insight to develop a collective view of issues Barkuma N
• Understand key opportunities for greater social inclusion for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Karuah Local Aboriginal N
Islander communities Land Council
• Identify key policy, investment, infrastructure and services necessary to improve outcomes Mindaribba Local N
Aboriginal Land Council
Upper Hunter Community N

Services
Future vision for the community Ungooroo Aboriginal Y
Corporation
Key themes and
Current and future opportunities and partnerships
lines of enquiry
Services and infrastructure needed to improve social outcomes

The workshop will be conducted in person in Singleton using butchers' papers, post its and markers Dear (Insert name),
to prompt discussion. In order to keep participants engaged, we will use a combination of facilitated
discussion, individual and group work. To facilitate effective plenary discussion, we will call on We look forward to your participation in the workshop on Tuesday 28 July at 11:00am.
participants by name individually to ensure all voices are heard.
Please see the attached agenda. To make the most of our time together, we have prepared an
agenda with three key discussion areas that we will explore in 20 minute ‘sprints’. This will ensure that
we cover the breadth of issues.
In advance of the workshop, we would appreciate some quick responses to the following questions to
set the scene for the workshop. Please send an email with your response by COB Friday 24 July. Only
one or two sentences is needed in response to the following questions. This will help us focus on the
Agenda key issues during the workshop.
Session Time • What is your vision of an inclusive community going forward?
1. Welcome, acknowledgement of country and introductions • What is one key change or investment needed to deliver on the vision?
11:00am – 11:15am
• What are the key barriers to social inclusion, employment or education in the region?
2. Quick overview 11:15am – 11:30am • What is needed to create more opportunity for Aboriginal young people?
• What are the three top land use and environment issues for the Upper Hunter?
3. Discussion area 1: Vision for the community and young people 11:30am – 11:50am
4. Discussion area 2: Land use and environment 11:50am – 12:10pm We look forward to seeing you on Tuesday.
5. Discussion area 3: Current and future opportunities and partnerships 12:10pm – 12:30pm
Kind Regards,
6. Wrap up discussion, next steps and light lunch 12:30pm – 1:00pm

Workshop Plan
Welcome, 11:00am – Introductions Icebreaker: “Name, where

acknowledgement 11:15am from, one word for today”
of country and
introductions
Quick overview 11:15am – • Objectives for the workshop and scope of project Slide with agenda and
11:30am • Introduce ‘parking space’ for important issues that can’t be explored in workshop objectives.
Slide presenting
work. 3(a) and 3(b)
Discussion area 1: 11:30am – Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
Vision for the 11:50am • What is your vision of an inclusive community going forward?
community and • What investments and infrastructure is needed to deliver on the vision?
young people • What are the key barriers to social inclusion, employment or education for Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander people?
• What is needed to create more opportunity for Aboriginal young people?
• What are the expected social and community impacts from the economic diversification in the
region?

Discussion area 11:50am – 12:10pm Get perspectives on the following issues: Facilitated discussion
2: Land use and • What are the key land use issues in the region?
environment • How should land use planning arrangements supporting community outcomes?
• What are the opportunities for Aboriginal Land Councils'?
• What are the most important environmental issues to consider for the future?
• How may mining rehabilitation impact future community outcomes?
• What are the critical issues relevant to competing land uses?
3: Current and • What are the current partnerships in place to support the community and can these be 3(a) and 3(b)
future leveraged further?
opportunities • What partnerships and collaborations are working well?
and partnerships • Are there new opportunities for partnerships across or beyond the Upper Hunter region?
• How can other organisations work better with Aboriginal organisations in the future?
Wrap up 12:30pm – 1:00pm • Provide space in the agenda for participants to raise issues not already discussed. Plenary discussion
discussion, next • Provide a forum for identifying any data or information to be shared from participants
steps and light
lunch


– Upper Hunter policies and

programs
Table B.1: Upper Hunter Policies and Programs
Upper Hunter policies and programs Summary and description
Regional Economic The Regional Economic Development Strategy is a broad strategy document to provide a framework to identify
Development the areas for economic development in the Hunter region and aims to achieve the regional vision of enhanced
Strategy, 2018- innovation and infrastructure, and greater access to interstate and international markets.
2022
The strategy is aimed at councils and other groups involved in the economic development of the region and outlines
high value areas/projects for development.
Important considerations:
• The Liddell and Bayswater power plants will be shut down in 2022 and 2035 respectively. There are
opportunities for emerging energy options to leverage the infrastructure and natural advantages of the
region
• The Upper Hunter Shire is seeking to provide support to existing industrial estates with a rail sliding
Proposed projects:
• Wind and solar facilities, pilot bio-refinery and gas-fired electricity generation plant in the Upper Hunter
• The Upper Hunter is one of three centres for thoroughbred breeding excellence in the world and employed
700 people in 2016.
156

Hunter Regional The plan provides an overarching framework to guide the NSW Government’s land use planning priorities and
Plan 2036 decisions over the next 20 years for the Hunter Region.
The document contains priority actions in the short term, for each council such as:
• The recently completed Hunter Expressway provided better access between the Upper Hunter and greater
Newcastle.
• Potential growth in Agribusiness due to demands in the domestic and Asian markets.
• There is capacity to export mining and agricultural knowledge, especially in the equine and viticulture
industries.
NSW Government • Protecting the Upper Hunter’s landscape and leveraging its established agricultural industries will help to
increase its appeal as a tourist destination.
Department of Planning, Industry • Enable the growth of tourism in the Upper Hunter through integration with the Equine Critical Industry
and Environment Cluster.
• Protect the Equine Critical Industry Cluster and allow for expansion of the industry.
Upper Hunter The Upper Hunter Economic Diversification Action Plan contains regional advantages and implementation priorities in
Economic the immediate (up to 2 years), short to medium (up to 4 years) and long term (up to 10 years).
Diversification
Action Plan: Local growth projections and enablers:
Implementation
• Protect the Equine Critical Industry Cluster and allow for expansion of the industry.
Priorities
• Protect Biophysical Strategic Agricultural Lands and other important agricultural lands.
• Support the tourism economy by investigating ways to leverage agriculture and equine industry strengths to
attract food-based and equine-related visitors.
• Support the diversification of the energy sector and ongoing extractive industries, being part of the Upper
Hunter Green Energy Precinct.
NSW Government • Encourage the establishment of employment–generating rural industries, value-adding industries and
intensive agriculture in appropriate locations.
Department of Planning, Industry
Opportunities seen by NSW Government:
and Environment
• Supporting transition into agribusiness; economic agreements with Asian trading partners
• Develop a robust water security planning framework
• Working with power asset owners for growing renewable energy capabilities
157

SMART Smart Specialisation is an OECD framework implemented across the EU to guide regional economic transformation;
Specialisation this plan is has become a part of RDA Hunter’s economic development strategy.
Strategy The strategy identifies local competencies with a focus on smart development through innovation.
Defence:
• The Upper Hunter has a significant defence base: Army Singleton Military Area, co-located next to Lone Pine
Barracks.
Commonwealth
• RDA Hunter is co-ordinating the Hunter Strategic Defence Group with the Government to leverage defence
Government
opportunities such as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and planned major re-equipment programs to capture
NSW Government economic and employment outcomes for the Hunter.
• Educational programs at Hunter TAFE and the ME program (STEM initiative for defence) to enhance
capabilities.
Equine:
• Scone Equine Hospital: supports the Thoroughbred Horse breeding industry in the Upper Hunter. Potential
for expansion in equine practices.
Arts:
• ‘Arts Upper Hunter’ is backed by five Councils, to provide, support and promote opportunities for all people
in the Upper Hunter to participate creatively in the lives of the communities they live in.
Local Strategic The Local Strategic Planning Statement (LSPS) is the Upper Hunter Shire Council’s plan for the social, environmental
Planning and economic land use needs over the next 20 years in the region. The LSPS provides context and direction for
Statement 2020 strategic land use planning in the Upper Hunter Shire.
The Local Strategic Planning Statement 2020 outlines the following priorities for Upper Hunter Shire:
• Protect the natural environment.

• Support and provide community services which promote health, wellbeing and the celebration of culture.
Upper Hunter Shire • Increase focus on local business, shop occupation and revitalisation of the town centres.
Council • Facilitate a stronger economic base to attract and retain residents, particularly young people.
• Provide well maintained, safe, reliable and additional infrastructure, including sporting fields, parks, family
and cultural facilities.
• Rural lifestyle and country feel are valued and protected and that the Upper Hunter Shire remains quiet,
safe, healthy and welcoming.
• Facilitate increased and innovative tourism and visitor opportunities
158

Local Strategic As a high-level strategic document, the Statement establishes the 20-year vision for how the Singleton LGA will be in
Planning Statement the future in terms of its land uses, activities, landforms and built forms. The planning priorities contained in the
2041 Statement provide the rationale, strategic policy positions and actions that will help navigate the LGA local planning
documents such as the Local Environmental Plan, Development Control Plan, Local contributions Plan and the
Community Participation Plan.
Singleton Council
Moving Toward The Local Strategic Planning Statement sets out how the Dungog LGA will move forward with land use planning over
2041 Local the next 20 years economically, socially and environmentally in a way that delivers on the community’s vision. The
Strategic Planning main themes of the document centre on: A thriving new economy, infrastructure supporting growth, a sustainable
Statement environment, and a place to grow. Each theme has 3-4 planning priorities with associated actions and
implementation timeframes stretching from the immediate to the ongoing (over the life of the statement). The
Dungog Shire LSPS is not a static document and will be reviewed to align with the Integrated Planning & Reporting
Framework and the progression of the Rural Lands Strategy. This will ensure the relevance of actions and maintain a
Dungog Shire
clear line of sight with the Hunter Regional Plan 2036.
Council
DRAFT Local The Statement will shape how Council amends or prepares the Muswellbrook Local Environmental Plan (MLEP) and
Strategic Planning Muswellbrook Development Control Plan (MDCP) over time. The LSPS consists of:
Statement 2020-
2040 • A 20-year vision that captures the future desired state for the local area
• 3 key themes that identify the higher-order objectives for strategic land use planning in the LGA
• 19 planning priorities that identify the main issues to be addressed to deliver the Vision and Themes
• A set of Planning Principles for each planning priority that guide decisions on planning proposals and land use
Muswellbrook Shire planning
Council • Measurable actions that outline specific projects that will be added to Council’s work programs to implement the
LSPS.
159

Greater Hunter The Greater Hunter regional water strategy provides a guide to infrastructure development to overcome
regional water the physical barriers that prevent optimal water allocations.
strategy, 2018
• Drought security was confirmed as the primary economic risk facing the Upper Hunter. This risk
extends to all sectors, including urban, agriculture, mining and power generation.
• Infrastructure guidance to improve water access and connectivity will mitigate the risk
• Increase water reliability
• While the Greater Hunter Regional Water Strategy provides extensive research on the historical climatic
record of the region, there is a need to invest in forward-looking forecasts to understand how this will
NSW Government change over the next 50-years and impact on the availability of water as the climate changes.
Department of Planning, Industry

and Environment
Strategic Regional Strategic Regional Land Use Plan Upper Hunter references policy actions undertaken since 2012.
Land Use Plan
Upper Hunter, 2012 • Some policy actions in the document that have already been implemented.
• The policy actions have been undertaken in the following areas: Balancing Agriculture and Resources
development, Infrastructure, Economic Development and Employment, Housing and Settlement,
Community Health and Amenity, Natural Environment, Natural Hazards and Climate Change, Cultural
Heritage.
NSW Government
Situation analysis This review has been prepared for Upper Hunter Shire Council (UHSC) to provide background information for an
of Upper Hunter update to the Upper Hunter Land Use Strategy 2011. This will inform future planning for the Upper Hunter Local
Local Government Government Area (LGA).
Area: Investigation
Areas Review The report identifies some structural issues affecting the Upper Hunter Local Government Area and local
(2016) development plans:
• Ageing of the population in rural areas

• Increased centralisation of services in major centres (esp. for health and education)
• Stable or declining overall population in most of the LGA contrasted with projected growth in and around
the townships of Scone and Aberdeen (generally within a radius of 15 to 20 km)
160

Prepared for Upper Hunter Shire • Continued structural adjustment in the rural and agricultural industries, together with some growth of more
Council diversified rural enterprises and constraints based on limited water availability
• Uncertainty in relation to potential future coal mining development
• Relatively poor public transport accessibility
• An attractive natural/rural environment
Climate Change The Climate Change Research Strategy outlines three projects to help develop alternatives to conventional fossil-
Research Strategy, fuel electricity generation.
Project 3 – Biomass
for Bioenergy Project 3 investigates innovative approaches to electricity generation using biomass to prepare for new capacity in
the electricity grid with a $4 million budget.
Three primary components of the program include:
1. Feedstocks – The most prospective energy crops planted at ten demonstration sites across NSW for trials on
growth rates and to demonstrate the energy crop concept to NSW landholders.
2. Technology options - review and evaluation of white and torrefied pellets for co-firing in existing coal-fired
NSW Government power plants in NSW.
3. Scenario modelling – develop scenarios for bioenergy and analyse contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
Department of Primary Industries
reduction in the short and long term.
This project creates an opportunity for NSW to lead the way in large-scale implementation of bioenergy solutions for
electricity generation, develop a new market for biomass energy, and address climate change.
A Green Growth and The Hunter BioValley report presents a comprehensive approach to economic diversification in the Hunter
Innovation Region, based on the concepts of circular and bio-economies.
Powerhouse for
Australia At the heart of the Hunter BioValley will lie an interconnected network of innovation projects – each individual land
use being integrated with and supported by other sectors of the new economy.
Project goals include clean energy and storage, green chemicals and products, circular economy, integrated
landscapes, regenerative agriculture, sustainable infrastructure and ecological remediation and improvement.
NSW Government
University of Newcastle
161

Upper Hunter Cultural Plan 2017- The Upper Hunter Cultural Plan describes the culture of the Upper Hunter, the Council’s approach to Arts
2027 and Culture, and actions to meet cultural objectives.
Upper Hunter Shire Council Priority areas include:
• Develop connectivity between Council, independent organisations, arts practitioners and cultural workers, in
relation to programming, strategic packaging and promotion to develop audiences, and resource sharing
• Develop hard infrastructure for the arts and cultural sector
• Better support fledgling and existing festivals and events
• Build a partnership to best facilitate the University of Newcastle’s third year Bachelor of Creative Industries
course student placements in 2019 to boost Shire skills and labour
• Focus on Indigenous people to increase visibility and support for traditional and contemporary cultures
Upper Hunter Regional Cultural The Upper Hunter Regional Cultural Development Strategy contains a profile summary of the Upper Hunter and
Development Strategy 2017-2021 the plans, policies, procedures in place for cultural development. The strategy also provides a summary of
recommendations for cultural development in the region.
Muswellbrook Shire Council
Some relevant recommendations:
• Investigate infrastructure opportunities for Aboriginal culture celebration

• Support the digital platforms and systems that broaden the storage of memory institutions
• Encourage infrastructure spending on cultural heritage buildings and precincts
• Support the recognition and promotion of cultural infrastructure and spaces as cultural tourism assets
• Facilitate the development of digital applications and infrastructure that support cultural development
• Increase local attainment of educational qualifications in the arts, music and production
• Support spending on cultural infrastructure that facilitates growth in cultural tourism
162


Dungog Land Use Strategy
Dungog Shire Council (2010)
The Land Use Strategy was developed for Dungog Shire Council and provides a direction and planning context to
guide the preparation/review of planning documents, including the Local Environmental Plan (LEP) provisions,
Development Control Plans and Local Area Plans. The Strategy is intended to provide a framework to guide land use-
related decisions affecting the Dungog Local Government Area (LGA) through to the year 2031. Dungog Council is
currently preparing an update applicable to rural regions in the 2020 Rural Lands Strategy.
Muswellbrook Land Use Development Strategy

Muswellbrook Shire Council (2015)
The Land Use Development Strategy sets out the direction for land use in the Muswellbrook Shire to 2035. It is
focussed on the best use of land for the best community value and provides a focus for managing land use
compatibility, for ensuring that future potential land use is a key consideration in land use decisions, and that a
consistent strategic planning framework is applied to land use and development.
Singleton Land Use Statement

Singleton Council (2008)
The Strategy outlines key land use policies and principles for the Singleton local government area (LGA) and provides
the planning context for the preparation of local environmental plan provisions. The Strategy has a time frame of 25
years, from 2008 to 2032. The Strategy identifies where growth and change are expected to occur, and land use
planning objectives and strategies to guide this growth and change. It also identifies infrastructure requirements to
support development and will help inform local and state government budget processes.
163


Upper Hunter Land Use Statement
Upper Hunter Shire Council (2017)
The Upper Hunter Land Use Strategy outlines key land use policies and principles for the Upper Hunter local
government area (LGA) and provides the planning context for the preparation of local environmental plan (LEP)
provisions. The Strategy develops land use planning objectives and strategies to guide growth and change and
identifies where growth and change are expected to occur. It also identifies infrastructure requirements to support
development and will help inform local and state government budget processes.
164

– State and regional policies and

programs
Table C.1: State and regional policies and programs
State and regional policies and Overview

programs
Strategic statement on coal exploration and mining in NSW
The purpose of this statement is to set out how the NSW Government is taking a responsible approach to the global
transition to a low carbon future, consistent with Australia’s ambition under the Paris Agreement.
The NSW government will act in four areas:

1. Improving certainty about where coal mining should not occur
2. Supporting responsible coal production in areas deemed suitable for mining
3. Addressing community concerns about the impacts of coal mining
4. Supporting diversification of coal-reliant regional economies to assist with the phase out of thermal coal mining
A 20-year economic vision for regional NSW

This document outlines the NSW Government’s vision for regional town centres, people and businesses in NSW. The
document highlights key points to enable regional NSW to achieve sustainable and long-term economic growth including:
• Strong trade agreements and relationships
• Migration and foreign investment
• A strong and thriving Sydney
• Governments working together
• Governments and industry working together
• Governments and communities working together
• Aboriginal economic participation
• A focus on growth
165


programs
Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020-2039
This policy framework aims to enhance the prosperity and quality of life of the people of NSW. The plan supports initiatives
targeting electricity and energy efficiency, electric vehicles, hydrogen, primary industries, coal innovation, organic waste
and carbon farming.
Policy directions:
• Support businesses to modernise plants and increase productivity
• Provide farmers with access to new markets and technologies
• Drive down the cost of living
Provide consumers with more information to help make environmentally and financially sustainable choices.
Australian Energy market Operator (AEMO): Draft 2020 Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity
Market
The Australian Energy Market Operator developed a roadmap for eastern Australia’s power system. Specifically, the plan
aims to maximise net market benefits and deliver low cost, reliable energy created using CBA and least-regret scenario
modelling. The analysis identifies the following areas for investment:
• Distributed energy resources (DER) – DER is expected to double or triple by 2040, holding grid demand relatively
constant. Residential, industrial and commercial consumers are expected to continue to invest heavily in rooftop PV,
with increasing interest in battery storage and load management.
• Variable renewable energy (VRE) - Approximately 15 gigawatts (GW) or 63% of Australia’s coal-fired generation is
set to retire by 2040. To ensure a gradual, orderly transition, there must be sufficient new generation in place before
each major plant exits.
• Supporting dispatchable resources and power system services – 5-21 GW of new dispatchable resources are
needed in support: utility-scale pumped hydro or battery storage, demand response such as demand side
participation and distributed batteries participating as virtual power plants. New flexible gas generators could also play
a greater role if gas prices materially reduce.
National Electricity Market (NEM) transmission grid - While over 30 GW of new VRE may be required by 2040, the
existing network only has an estimated connection capacity for 13 GW within the identified potential Renewable Energy
Zone. Three types of projects are considered in this Draft ISP to augment the grid: current projects, additional regional
interconnections and intraregional augmentations
166


programs
NSW Electricity Strategy
The NSW Electricity Strategy outlines the NSW Government’s plan for a reliable, affordable and sustainable electricity future
to support the economy. The strategy is outlined over six parts:
1. How the electricity system operates

2. Change in the electricity system
3. Work underway
4. The NSW Government’s objectivise
5. The NSW Government’s Electricity strategy
6. Applying the Energy Security Target to NSW
The strategy is designed to complement the work of the national energy market and sets out actions to address the specific
needs of NSW.
COAG Energy Council: Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, 2019
Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy identifies 57 joint actions to propel the use of hydrogen in Australia as an
energy source.
The 57 strategic actions are summarised at the end of the report. Examples of strategic actions includes: create an
adaptive pathway to clean hydrogen growth, large-scale market activation, hubs and sector coupling, hydrogen
certification, skills and training for the hydrogen economy, hydrogen training for Australian emergency services and
regulators, certainty around taxation, excise and other fees/levies for hydrogen.
167


programs
Infrastructure Australia: Infrastructure Priority list
Infrastructure Australia provides a list of nationally significant infrastructure investments that Australia will require over the
next 15 years, based on projections of greatest benefits for the communities.
For example, the New England Highway passes through both Singleton and Muswellbrook. Traffic congestion, reduced land
freight transport productivity, safety issues (due to the mix of heavy vehicles and residential traffic in town centres) and
amenity issues are the principal problems.
Proposed solution: potential projects to upgrade the New England Highway that involve the Hunter:
• bypasses of the towns of Singleton and Muswellbrook

• duplication between Singleton and Muswellbrook
The Singleton and Muswellbrook bypasses are progressing through the concept design and environmental assessment
processes currently. These will aid the efficient movement of freight from regional exporters to the Port of Newcastle, which
is essential to supporting economic growth and productivity in New South Wales.
NSW Government, Aboriginal Affairs: Opportunity Hubs Program, Upper Hunter
The Ochre Opportunity Hubs programs aims to develop employment pathways for school students through the
involvement of local employers in career planning at schools.
Some of the key aims of the hub centres include:
• Providing young Aboriginal people with clear pathways and incentives to stay at school and transition into employment,
training or further education.
• Linking schools, employers, training providers and support services.
• Connecting Aboriginal students and their families to tertiary education and training pathways to align with students’
career interests.
Coordinating career planning and mentoring.
168


programs
Regional Industry Education Partnerships (RIEP) & NSW Government Initiative, by Vocational Education &
Training (VET)
The RIEP program aims to strengthen connections between local industry and secondary school communities
in regional areas to support career planning.
Activities of the program include:
• Building partnerships between employers and local schools

• Supporting employers to engage with schools and share information on their expectations for their future workforce
• Help students develop the skills they need to get a job
Strengthen links between what is learned at school and what is needed in the workplace
NSW Government, Training Services NSW: The Smart and Skilled Targeted Priorities Prevocational and Part
Qualifications Program Guidelines
The Smart and Skilled Targeted Priorities Prevocational and Part Qualifications Program supports the future of work through
enabling industry and training organisations to respond rapidly to skills needs.
The program has 3 target areas:
• Prevocational training – targets students who want to get a job, change their job or make a more informed decision
to continue training to complete a full qualification. This training targets the attainment of Foundation Skills
competencies and is priced to reflect this.
• Pre-apprenticeship and Pre-traineeship Training – targets students who are trying to get into an apprenticeship
or traineeship. Letters of support from industry are required to support these programs and must include compulsory
work placement.
• Targeted skills – covers a broad range of vocational training to address the needs of industries and priority groups
and assist individuals to gain the skills they need. This training can include nationally recognised vocational short
courses and vocational skills sets as defined in Training Packages.
169


programs
Infrastructure Skills Legacy Program
NSW Government, Training Services NSW
The Infrastructure Skills Legacy Program aims to boost the number of skilled constructions workers in NSW
and develop new pathways to employment on infrastructure projects.
• The Infrastructure Skills Legacy Program is consistent with the NSW Government’s $100 million Smart, Skilled and
Hired package, a targeted youth employment program to create new work pathways including traineeships and
apprenticeships
The initiative will focus on three initial demonstration projects— Sydney Metro (rail), Lismore Base Hospital Stage 3B
redevelopment (health) and WestConnex New M4 (roads). Over time, these targets will be assessed and refined before
potentially applying to future infrastructure projects. The outcomes of these projects would be assessed over time and
results applied to other infrastructure projects.
Australian Government: Regional Connectivity Program (RCP)
Through the Regional Connectivity Program, targeted strategic investment will improve access to mobile and/or
broadband services in areas such as high value agricultural and tourism locations as well as for the resources
sector. This investment could also address health, social, public safety and educational priorities.
The $60 million funding of the Regional Connectivity Program includes a competitive grants program, a digital technology
hub, alternate voice service trials in remote areas, further development of the Universal Service Guarantee.
NSW Government: Regional Digital Connectivity (RDC) Program
The Regional Digital Connectivity (RDC) Program is a $400 million commitment to invest in infrastructure to provide fast
and reliable broadband internet access to regional communities in NSW. The Regional Digital Connectivity program is in
addition to the existing Connecting Country Communities Fund that has helped deliver over 167 new mobile towers in
NSW since 2015.
• The RDC Program aims to enable digital connectivity in regions that is comparable to the quality of services available
in metropolitan areas of the state.
• It holds to the NSW State Infrastructure Strategy 2018-2038, which set a goal of having high-speed internet available
across regional NSW by 2020.
170

Table C.2: State and regional documents and strategies
State and regional documents Overview

and strategies
Improving mine rehabilitation in NSW
Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (2017)
This Discussion Paper provides an overview of how mine rehabilitation is currently regulated in NSW and seeks public
feedback on proposals to improve rehabilitation outcomes for state significant mining developments such as coal, mineral
sands and large metalliferous mines. The key aim of the proposed improvements is to ensure mine rehabilitation is
consistent with best practice and delivers appropriate social, economic and environmental outcomes.
NSW Government, Department of Planning and Environment: Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan, 2036
The Metropolitan Plan for Greater Newcastle outlines the vision for the development, strategies and actions of the region.
The strategic approach for Greater Newcastle aims to realise the vision set out in the Hunter Regional Plan 2036.
• The recent completion of the Hunter Expressway has improved connectivity to the Greater Newcastle and Upper Hunter
area, increasing its attraction for housing and employment.
There are opportunities to better connect trade movements across NSW and nationally via the Pacific Motorway, New
England Highway, Hunter Expressway, national rail network and the proposed Lower Hunter Freight Corridor.
171
Limitation of our work

General use restriction
This report is prepared solely for the internal use of the NSW Department of Regional NSW. This
report is not intended to and should not be used or relied upon by anyone else and we accept no

duty of care to any other person or entity. The report has been prepared for the purpose of
evaluating the current economic, planning and social landscape of the Upper Hunter, providing a
robust analysis of plausible scenarios for the future and guiding action towards achieving economic
diversification and resilience, as set out in the contract dated 26 May 2020. You should not refer to
or use our name or the advice for any other purpose.
172

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What are the main industries currently in the Upper Hunter region?

What are the main industries currently in the Upper Hunter region?

What are some of the challenges facing the Upper Hunter region?

What are some of the challenges facing the Upper Hunter region?

Upper Hunter futures – final report

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Roadmap for economic diversification

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1.1 Purpose and scope 12

2 The Upper Hunter regional economy 17

2.1 Concentrated but changing industry base 17

3 Local demographics and social trends 28

3.1 Trends in population 28

4 Land use planning 48

4.1 Current land use across the Upper Hunter 48

4.2 Land use conflicts 58

5 Priority industries for the Upper Hunter 63

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

6 Developing a ‘roadmap’ for the future 74

6.1 A scenario-based approach 74

7 Action plan for inclusive growth 84

7.1 Theme 1: Foundations for the future 85

Action 6.1: Investigate innovative local public transport solutions 96

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

8 Potential governance arrangements 103

8.1 Role of governance frameworks in community transition 103

9 Communications plan 107

9.1 The purpose of communications 107

– Stakeholder Engagement Plan 112

– Upper Hunter policies and programs 156

– State and regional policies and programs 165

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

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• consider the current economic, land use and social landscape

Current economic, planning and social landscape

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Plausible scenarios for the future

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Action plan for inclusive growth

In summary, regional diversification in the Upper Hunter remains prospective, despite

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Table i: Themed opportunities for action by key domains

Themes Actions Priority timing Key domains Key stakeholders

industry & NFPs

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Themes Actions Priority timing Key domains Key stakeholders

industry & NFPs

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Themes Actions Priority timing Key domains Key stakeholders

industry & NFPs

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Themes Actions Priority timing Key domains Key stakeholders

industry & NFPs

Released by DRNSW under the GIPA Act. Ref: GIPA 21-61 - IR

Themes Actions Priority timing Key domains Key stakeholders

industry & NFPs

5.3 Build the Upper Hunter’s Care Economy