THE RELATIONSHIP

BETWEEN
PROPERTY YIELDS

SOME THOUGHTS
AND INTEREST RATES:

BNP Paribas REIM

June 2017

Real Estate
for a changing
world
 MAURIZIO GRILLI - HEAD OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS AND STRATEGY
[email protected]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Long-run interest rates are likely to stay low when compared to previous cycles,
due to lower prospects for potential GDP growth. Moreover, the ECB will have to
keep rates lower for longer, as core inflation in the euro zone is still too low. The
main implication of a long-run low-interest rates environment is that the potential
for increasing property yields is much more limited than in the past, therefore
providing some protection to this asset.

History teaches that it is not necessarily true that an increase in interest (or
bond) rates must be associated to an increase in property yields. The most likely
explanation is related that real estate behaves like a hybrid between fixed income
and equity. Higher interest rates are normally related to higher growth rates, which,
in turn, should result into faster income growth for real estate assets. The yield gap
between property and bonds is at very high levels compared to history. All other
things being equal, it will take a significant increase in bond rates to exert upward
pressure on property yields.

The volatility in the property yield gap suggests the influence of other factors
playing a substantial role in affecting property yields, including bond and equity
yields, the cost and availability of credit, rental prospects, international capital
flows and asset allocation considerations. When all metrics are considered property
looks about fair value.

2
1. THE NATURAL PATH FOR INTEREST RATES
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES: SOME THOUGHTS

It is commonly believed that increasing interest rates will Table 1: ESTIMATES OF TREND GDP GROWTH AND
result in rising property yields and, eventually, be detrimental
REAL NEUTRAL INTEREST RATES
to property performance. However, while movements in interest
rates affect real estate returns, reality is much more complex. Trend GDP growth (%) 1990 2007 2015
This issue is even more significant today, as the Fed is engaging US 3.3 2.8 1.5
in a rate hike cycle in the US. On the other hand, the situation Euro zone 2.7 2.1 1.1
in Europe is different and, although headline inflation has come
Real neutral interest rate (%)
off the lows witnessed in 2015/2016, core inflation is still low
US 3.5 2.3 0.4
and, as a result, the ECB is still not ready to normalise monetary
Euro zone 2.4 2.0 -0.5
policy.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Overall, the value of forecasting short-run changes in interest
rates is limited from the point of view of a property investor. In
this sense, there is more merit in understanding how interest
rates are expected to behave in the medium-to-long-run. There In the last two decades, there has been considerable co-
exist many definitions of long-run interest rate, but the one movement of US and euro zone interest rates. However, the
we prefer describes it as the real (inflation-adjusted) interest ECB’s unconventional monetary policy has largely succeeded in
rate that the economy will converge to over time. This can be decoupling nominal interest rates in the euro zone from those
described as the “neutral” interest rate, i.e., the real interest in the US since 2014 (see Chart 1). After the US election, the
rate at which real GDP is growing at its trend rate and inflation spill-over of the sharp increase in US interest rates has been
is stable. The neutral rate provides an important benchmark very limited on the euro zone. This is mainly because investors
for policymakers to compare with the going rate. When interest expect both US economic growth and inflation to accelerate if
rates are neutral the economy is on a sustainable path, and the new administration cuts taxes, boosts investment, and even
it is deviations from neutrality that cause booms and busts. raises tariffs on imports.
For example if the market rate is pushed artificially below
the neutral real rate, monetary policy is accommodative and Chart 1: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
tends to stimulate growth. Conversely, if real interest rates are
above the neutral rate, monetary policy is restrictive and is % Euro zone US
detrimental to GDP growth. 6,0
The neutral interest rate is time-varying and is not directly 5,0
observable so it needs to be estimated. In order to estimate the 4,0
neutral rate, we need to make some assumption about trend 3,0
GDP. Trend GDP crucially depends on the potential size of the 2,0
labour force (which is determined by demographic factors and
1,0
participation rates) and productivity growth1. Now, trend GDP
growth has declined rapidly over the last 25 years (see Table 0,0
1) and even more after 2007/2008. This is largely contingent -1,0
on a) weakening demographics and ageing population, which
has resulted in lower labour supply and b) decreasing labour Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
productivity. The decline in the real interest rate in the long 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
run is then consistent with the repeated downward revisions
Source: BNPP IREIM Research, Macrobond
in the long run growth potential of the economy that we have
witnessed over the last decades.

(1) This means that potential GDP growth varies over time and by country.

3
 On the other hand, we argue that it will take some time for the still present, so the hurdle for the bank to tighten policy is still
ECB to tighten monetary policy. Core inflation in the euro zone is quite high. Eventually, the ECB needs to make sure the euro zone
still low and so is wage growth (see Chart 2). To put in context, proceeds towards its long-term inflation target, while limiting
when the Fed announced to taper QE3 in December 2013, core monetary differences across the countries in the euro zone. As a
inflation in the US stood at 1.5%. It took then two more years result, the ECB can tighten monetary policy only very cautiously
for the Fed to increase rates for the first time since June 2006. and at a slow pace.
Moreover, the memory of the ECB’s untimely hikes in 2011 is

Chart 2: CORE INFLATION

% Euro zone US

3,0
Fed tapering
announcement First Fed hike
2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01 01/01
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Source: BNPP IREIM Research, Macrobond

As a result of interest rates being historically low for a number of The main implication of a long-run low-interest rates environment
years, investors have flocked to higher-income assets such as real is that the scope for property yields corrections is much more
estate, with the ensuing compression in yield levels and strong limited than in the past, therefore providing some protection to
price increases. While investors are now more and more worried this asset. Naturally, a lower level of potential GDP also means
about the prospect of increasing interest rates, it is important to lower real rental growth in the long-run. As a result, while we
note that the above reasoning behind the decline in trend GDP expect some positive rental growth in this real estate cycle, we
growth and neutral rates of interest is not going away. In general, should not anticipate the very high rates of growth witnessed
what is detrimental to GDP growth, and ultimately to real estate in the cycles before 2008. Investors will then have to decide
performance, are strong deviations of nominal interest rates from what sector, geography and style of investment will maximise
the trend. However, the above analysis shows that interest rates performance and/or minimise risk but this goes beyond the scope
have to stay relatively low compared to the past, and sudden of this paper.
spikes in rates should be unwarranted.

4
 2. THE RELATION BETWEEN INTEREST RATES
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES: SOME THOUGHTS

AND PROPERTY YIELDS

Cautiousness over property’s vulnerability in a period of rising period are negative or moderately positive. Correlations start
interest rates, stems from the perceived risk of rising property rising again from 2015, possibly in relation to the increasing
yields. Contrary to common belief, however, our analysis only importance of the QE program.
shows a modest correlation between property yields and interest
The whole point about this analysis is to show that it is not
rates. Looking at the different markets across Europe, the
necessarily true that an increase in interest (or bond) rates must
correlation of property yields to sovereign 10-year bond yields2
be associated to an increase in property yields. History teaches
varies significantly over time (see Chart 3).
that frequently this is not the case and other explanations need
The analysis shows that correlations in all countries diminish to be considered. The most likely explanation is that real estate
rapidly and become negative roughly between 2005 and 2007, a behaves like a hybrid between fixed income and equity. Higher
period characterised by declining property yields and rising bond interest rates are normally related to higher growth rates, which,
yields. The interest cycle peaks in most countries in 20083, and in turn, should result into faster income growth for real estate
bond rates start declining henceforth, while property yields keep assets, all else equal. Consequently, real estate investors should
rising into 2009 and correlations are typically negative. The period accept lower initial yields on a real estate asset.
between 2010 and 2013 is generally characterised by decreasing
interest rates and stable property yields. Correlations during this

Chart 3: CORRELATION BETWEEN PRIME OFFICE YIELDS AND 10-YEAR SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS

% France Germany Italy UK Spain

1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16

Source: BNPP IREIM Research, Macrobond

(2) We use 10-year bond yields as a proxy of long-run interest rates.

(3) With the due exception of Spain and Italy who witnessed a further spike in 2011, as a result of the euro-crisis.

5
Moreover, despite the correlation, the magnitude of the moves in The yield gap in Europe5 at end-2016 was around 315bps.
property yields and bond rates has differed significantly over the past This is quite comfortable when compared to the long-
years. Property yields fell by an average of 230bp across major European term average, i.e. 235 bps. This premium is even more
markets from peak to trough4, while sovereign bond yields reduced comfortable if the analysis is extended to the mid-1990s
around 440bp over the same period (see Chart 4). When measured over (when inflation decreased to “normal” levels). The long-
the last 15 years, data show that volatility for property yields is between run average yield gap for this period is around 170 bps.
30% and 40% of bond yields.
There is no mathematical rule that can tell us what level
of yield gap can be considered as a warning of a possible
Chart 4: CHANGE IN PRIME OFFICE YIELDS AND 10-YEAR property yield decompression. The most representative
SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS historic evidence can be found just before 2008, when the
yield gap was negligible or even negative in few cases.
% - from peak to trough Bond yields Office yields As of today, we are still remote from this scenario. As a
0,0 result, all other things being equal, we would argue that
-1,0
the Bund yield has to move up somewhere between 80
and 140 bps to be at levels compatible with the long-term
-2,0
average. This level of gap would be still far away from the
-3,0
dangerous levels observed before 2008.
-4,0

-5,0
Germany France Italy UK Spain
Source: BNPP IREIM Research, Macrobond

The yield gap between property and 10-year bonds is a useful tool to
understand whether property is correctly priced or not. The historic
pattern of the yield gap in Europe is shown in Chart 5. Over the period
the gap, while showing cyclical tendencies, is on a long-term increasing
trend, suggesting the risk premium is gradually falling.

Chart 5: CHANGE IN THE YIELD GAP FOR PRIME OFFICES

IN EUROPE
% 10y Bund Office yield Yield gap
6,0
5,0
average gap 235 bps
4,0
3,0
current gap 315 bps
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 (4) This is roughly between 2008 and 2016 for bond yields and 2009 and 2016 for
office yields.
Source: BNPP IREIM Research, Macrobond
(5) The European office yield is made of a number of tier 1 markets, including
London, Paris and the main German cities. Similar conclusions can be reached
for all developed markets.

6
3. FACTORS INFLUENCING
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES: SOME THOUGHTS

PROPERTY YIELDS
Property yields are influenced by capital markets and macroeconomic variables,
as well as local property fundamentals. Overall, the volatility in the property-bond
yield gap suggests the complex influence of several factors playing a substantial
role in affecting property yields, including:

• Stock returns: property yields should also potentially be a function of the returns
on the stock market. However, while there is some consensus that stock market
returns affect property yields, the relationship is difficult to quantify.

• Risk appetite: the Bank of England produced a statistical analysis of the 60%
increase in UK commercial property values from 2000 to 2007. The BoE concluded
that around two-thirds of the increase in values could be attributed to ’residual’
factors, i.e. investors in UK real estate reducing their return requirements. While
we would not subscribe the totality of the BoE’s statement, we believe changing
risk appetite has a significant impact on pricing.

• Cost and availability of credit: this factor is also crucial in explaining property
yields variations. Credit spreads may be used to quantify the state of the appetite
for risk. In the UK, property yields have been 82% correlated to 10yr BBB bond
yields over the past 14 years, once a six-month lag is taken into account (see
Chart 6). While some sort of contraction of credit conditions, as a result of the
scheduled end to euro zone QE in 2018, could have the potential to put some
upward pressure on property yields in Europe, property investors are much less
leveraged in comparison to 20076 and the effect on property values should then
be much lower.

Chart 6: LONDON PRIME OFFICE YIELDS VS. BBB 10 YEARS YIELDS

% BBB yield 10 years (6 months lagged) Prime office yield - London
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3
03 04 05 06 06 07 08 09 09 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 16

Source: BNPP IREIM Research, Macrobond

(6) At the peak in 2007, the average leverage was in excess of 70%, while today the equivalent number is probably
around 50%.
77
• Rental growth expectations: this variable should impact property
yields via influencing forward-looking returns. Rental growth is
assumed to lag GDP growth for commercial property, albeit with
different levels of response to GDP, based on variable supply/
demand dynamics. All other things being equal, slowing GDP growth
should then indicate a chance of yield expansion, while accelerating
GDP growth tends to coincide with yield compression. A look at
historical data shows strong evidence for France and Italy and
weaker evidence for both Germany and the UK. Greater supply of
property, all other things being equal, is negatively associated with
rental growth. In general, the development cycle lags an increase
in tenant demand. The result of oversupply is falling rentals, prices
and reduced investor demand. Factors affecting the elasticity of
supply include access to development credit, the nature of the local
planning system and the availability of building land. Currently, and
with some due exceptions, new development in Europe is relatively
low compared to history, as it is shown in Chart 7. Most important,
as a result of risk-aversion on the side of both developers and
bankers, speculative development is particularly low7. This, along
with improving prospects for the European economy, results into
positive short-term rental expectations for most European markets,
which, in turn, points at further support for yields over the next two Asset allocations: the impact of large changes in asset valuations
years. on multi-asset portfolios, especially those of large investors,
can be quite significant. For example, as multi-asset portfolios
contracted in 2008 (mainly due to stock losses), the size of
Chart 7: OFFICE NET ADDITIONS TO STOCK IN EUROPE
more illiquid assets, such as real estate, relative to the whole
% portfolio, grew. As a result, while the denominator (portfolio)
Speculative Under construction
became smaller, the numerator (real estate) became larger.
6,0
In order to re-weight portfolios, investors were forced to sell
5,0 some more illiquid assets such as real estate, which resulted
4,0 in weaker prices. On the other hand, a strong increase in stock
prices would require the investor to acquire real estate assets,
3,0
to return to the desired allocation. On top of that, investors
2,0 allocations to real estate are increasing all over the world,
1,0 which, in turn, will mitigate the effects of sudden changes in
allocations due to swings in equity prices.
0,0
Some investors are currently changing the way they look
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
at asset allocations and have started to use an investment
Source: BNPP IREIM Research, PMA
portfolio approach based on risk factors8. This approach is
believed to be particularly useful when treating an asset class
such as property. This framework is based on risk weighting and,
as a result, it does not translate in traditional asset allocation
percentages. For example, under this guideline, an investor may
decide to purchase a property asset and fund it with sales of
(7) While the chart shows data for the office sector only, the same conclusions can be reached
for the other property sectors. equities or bonds denominated in the same currency, rather
(8) For example, ATP considers four main factors, i.e. interest rate, inflation, equity and other than by selling assets across its whole portfolio.
factors. Norway’s GPFG is also considering adopting a similar approach.

8
 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES: SOME THOUGHTS

While we believe that the gap between property and government

bond yields has strong merits and is a very useful benchmark
to evaluate if property is under or overvalued, we have engaged
in an exercise aimed at assessing property pricing on a number
of different metrics. As a didactic example, we have chosen
the Frankfurt office market but the analysis can of course be
replicated for other markets. Each pricing metric is shown in
standard deviations from its long-term average. As a period,
we have chosen to show the data for 2016, for the long-term
average and for 2007 (the peak before 2008). The analysis is
shown in Chart 8.

Chart 8: PROPERTY PRICING METRICS – FRANKFURT

OFFICE MARKET

International capital flows: in addition to recognized institutional

investors such as pension funds, insurance companies and listed
real estate companies, other types of real estate investors have
become very important over the last few years. These investors
Absolute yield levels remain high, as are capital values compared
mainly include, among others, sovereign funds, specialist
to the long term trend. However, capital values in US$ have
investment managers and private equity firms. Increase in
started to look cheap vs. their long term trend (this is important
foreign investment, all else equal, produces a compression in
for non-€ denominated investors). Relative pricing vs. dividend
property yields. However, it is likely that both property yields
yields seems relatively high. However, if property yields were
and foreign investment levels are actually mutually determined
measured vs. earnings yields, this would show a more favourable
by interconnected variables such as real estate transparency,
picture9. Most important, pricing vs. bond yields looks cheap on
economic status and market risk.
any measure.
Currency fluctuations can also affect both the direction and
When all metrics are considered property looks about fair value.
size of cross-border capital flows. A good example is the recent
devaluation of the UK sterling. Specifically, the value of UK assets
has strongly decreased when converted into non-UK currencies,
making UK property more attractive for non-UK-denominated
investors. This has resulted into a flood of “new money” coming
into the UK, on the assumption that the UK sterling will revaluate
in the future.
We would also argue that, even if a high share of foreign
investment is associated with lower yields, investors should
focus on markets where there exists a solid domestic investor
base. This is especially important in case foreign liquidity dries
out, as prices can be supported by domestic capital.
(9) Data availability has limited our analysis for this variable.