Chinsu Shajan

March 25, 2011

Aggregate Demand
• Many factors influence aggregate demand besides monetary and fiscal policy.
• In particular, desired spending by households and business firms determines the
overall demand for goods and services.
• When desired spending changes, aggregate demand shifts, causing short-run
fluctuations in output and employment.
• Monetary and fiscal policy are sometimes used to offset those shifts and stabilize
the economy
HOW MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCES AGGREGATE DEMAND
• The aggregate demand curve slopes downward for three reasons:
• The wealth effect
• The interest-rate effect
• The exchange-rate effect
• For the U.S. economy, the most important reason for the downward slope of the
aggregate-demand curve is the interest-rate effect.
The Theory of Liquidity Preference
• Keynes developed the theory of liquidity preference in order to explain what
factors determine the economy’s interest rate.
• According to the theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and
demand for money.
Money Supply
• The money supply is controlled by the Fed through:
• Open-market operations
• Changing the reserve requirements
• Changing the discount rate
• Because it is fixed by the Fed, the quantity of money supplied does not
depend on the interest rate.
• The fixed money supply is represented by a vertical supply curve.
Money Demand
• Money demand is determined by several factors.
• According to the theory of liquidity preference, one of the most
important factors is the interest rate.
• People choose to hold money instead of other assets that offer
higher rates of return because money can be used to buy goods and
services.
• The opportunity cost of holding money is the interest that could be
earned on interest-earning assets.
• An increase in the interest rate raises the opportunity cost of
holding money.
• As a result, the quantity of money demanded is reduced.
 Equilibrium in the Money Market
• According to the theory of liquidity preference:
• The interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for
money.
• There is one interest rate, called the equilibrium interest rate, at
which the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity of
money supplied.
• Assume the following about the economy:
• The price level is stuck at some level.
• For any given price level, the interest rate adjusts to
balance the supply and demand for money.
• The level of output responds to the aggregate demand for
goods and services.
The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve
• The price level is one determinant of the quantity of money demanded.
• A higher price level increases the quantity of money demanded for any given
interest rate.
• Higher money demand leads to a higher interest rate.
• The quantity of goods and services demanded falls.
• The end result of this analysis is a negative relationship between the price level
and the quantity of goods and services demanded.
Changes in the Money Supply
• The Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve when it changes monetary policy.
• An increase in the money supply shifts the money supply curve to the right.
• Without a change in the money demand curve, the interest rate falls.
• Falling interest rates increase the quantity of goods and services demanded.
• When the Fed increases the money supply, it lowers the interest rate and increases
the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting
aggregate-demand to the right.
• When the Fed contracts the money supply, it raises the interest rate and reduces
the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting
aggregate-demand to the left.
The Role of Interest-Rate Targets in Fed Policy
• Monetary policy can be described either in terms of the money supply or in terms
of the interest rate.
• Changes in monetary policy can be viewed either in terms of a changing target for
the interest rate or in terms of a change in the money supply.
• A target for the federal funds rate affects the money market equilibrium, which
influences aggregate demand.
HOW FISCAL POLICY INFLUENCES AGGREGATE DEMAND
• Fiscal policy refers to the government’s choices regarding the overall level of
government purchases or taxes.
• Fiscal policy influences saving, investment, and growth in the long run.
• In the short run, fiscal policy primarily affects the aggregate demand.
Changes in Government Purchases
• When policymakers change the money supply or taxes, the effect on aggregate
demand is indirect—through the spending decisions of firms or households.
• When the government alters its own purchases of goods or services, it shifts the
aggregate-demand curve directly.
• There are two macroeconomic effects from the change in government purchases:
• The multiplier effect
• The crowding-out effect
The Multiplier Effect
• Government purchases are said to have a multiplier effect on aggregate demand.
• Each dollar spent by the government can raise the aggregate demand for
goods and services by more than a dollar.
• The multiplier effect refers to the additional shifts in aggregate demand that result
when expansionary fiscal policy increases income and thereby increases
consumer spending.
A Formula for the Spending Multiplier
• The formula for the multiplier is:
Multiplier = 1/(1 - MPC)
• An important number in this formula is the marginal propensity to consume
(MPC).
• It is the fraction of extra income that a household consumes rather than
saves.
• If the MPC is 3/4, then the multiplier will be:
Multiplier = 1/(1 - 3/4) = 4
• In this case, a $20 billion increase in government spending generates $80 billion
of increased demand for goods and services.
The Crowding-Out Effect
• Fiscal policy may not affect the economy as strongly as predicted by the
multiplier.
• An increase in government purchases causes the interest rate to rise.
• A higher interest rate reduces investment spending.
• This reduction in demand that results when a fiscal expansion raises the interest
rate is called the crowding-out effect.
• The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate
demand.
• When the government increases its purchases by $20 billion, the aggregate
demand for goods and services could rise by more or less than $20 billion,
depending on whether the multiplier effect or the crowding-out effect is larger.
Changes in Taxes
• When the government cuts personal income taxes, it increases households’ take-
home pay.
• Households save some of this additional income.
• Households also spend some of it on consumer goods.
• Increased household spending shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the
right.
 • The size of the shift in aggregate demand resulting from a tax change is affected
by the multiplier and crowding-out effects.
• It is also determined by the households’ perceptions about the permanency of the
tax change.
USING POLICY TO STABILIZE THE ECONOMY
• Economic stabilization has been an explicit goal of U.S. policy since the
Employment Act of 1946.
The Case for Active Stabilization Policy
• The Employment Act has two implications:
• The government should avoid being the cause of economic fluctuations.
• The government should respond to changes in the private economy in
order to stabilize aggregate demand.
The Case against Active Stabilization Policy
• Some economists argue that monetary and fiscal policy destabilizes the economy.
• Monetary and fiscal policy affect the economy with a substantial lag.
• They suggest the economy should be left to deal with the short-run fluctuations on
its own.
Automatic Stabilizers
• Automatic stabilizers are changes in fiscal policy that stimulate aggregate demand
when the economy goes into a recession without policymakers having to take any
deliberate action.
• Automatic stabilizers include the tax system and some forms of government
spending.
Summary
• Keynes proposed the theory of liquidity preference to explain determinants of the
interest rate.
• According to this theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and
demand for money.
• An increase in the price level raises money demand and increases the interest rate.
• A higher interest rate reduces investment and, thereby, the quantity of goods and
services demanded.
• The downward-sloping aggregate-demand curve expresses this negative
relationship between the price-level and the quantity demanded.
• Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with monetary policy.
• An increase in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand
curve shifting to the right.
• A decrease in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand
curve shifting to the left.
• Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with fiscal policy.
• An increase in government purchases or a cut in taxes shifts the aggregate-
demand curve to the right.
• A decrease in government purchases or an increase in taxes shifts the aggregate-
demand curve to the left.
• When the government alters spending or taxes, the resulting shift in aggregate
demand can be larger or smaller than the fiscal change.
• The multiplier effect tends to amplify the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate
demand.
• The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate
demand.
• Because monetary and fiscal policy can influence aggregate demand, the
government sometimes uses these policy instruments in an attempt to stabilize the
economy.
• Economists disagree about how active the government should be in this effort.
• Advocates say that if the government does not respond the result will be
undesirable fluctuations.
• Critics argue that attempts at stabilization often turn out destabilizing.