Al-Khwarizmi

Engineering
Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, December, (2019) Journal
P. P. 71-78

Evaluation of Yogurt Production Line Simulation Using Arena

Software

Kawthar A. Mohammed Hasan* Ali H. Kadhum**

Ameer H. Morad***
*, **Department of Automated Manufacturing Engineering/ Al-Khwarizmi Engineering College/
University of Baghdad/ Iraq
***Department of Information and Communication Engineering / Al-Khwarizmi Engineering College/
University of Baghdad/ Iraq
*Email: [email protected]
**Email: [email protected]
***Email: [email protected]

(Received 24 July 2019; accepted 21 October 2019)

https://doi.org/10.22153/kej.2019.10.003

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify the controllability of an existing production system; yogurt production
line in Abu Ghraib Dairy Factory which has several machines of food processing and packing that has been studied.
Through the starting of analysis, instability in production has been found in the factory. The analysis is built depending
on experimental observation and data collection for different processing time of the machines, and statistical analysis has
been conducted to model the production system. Arena Software is applied for simulating and analyzing the current state
of the production system, and results are expanded to improve the system production and efficiency. Research method is
applied to contribute in knowing and expecting the future running of the system to enhance the controllability of the
system production and improve the production system and machine efficiency. Moreover, build an experimental model
in Arena in order to simulate the system in term of production and process. First step is to collect the statistical data
required for analysis in terms of input and output data for analysis. Second, is to track the production problem in term of
process bottleneck in order to improve the utilization of the system. Third is to validate the model in order to overcome
the product demand of the system uncontrollability. Through the result analysis of waiting time and production rate, it is
clearly shown that system is stable with a need to resetting the capacity as a chance for the improvement, regarding to
resources utilization. Re-planning resources capacity positively enhances the production and profitability of the system.
The validation percent of the experimental results of output products and actual number of products is about 98%.

Keywords: Arena simulation, evaluation of manufacturing system, Yogurt production line.

1. Introduction helps the managers to make proper decision for

controllability of product line steps.
Simulation is a powerful tool to evaluate and Arena is discrete event simulation and
improve of actual production line systems without automation software expanded by Systems
disturbing its operation by builds a simulation Modeling and obtained by Rockwell Automation
model using computer. Running the model for in 2000. Arena simulation modeling software used
long and short times experiments to tracks if there to solve several types of problems such as layout
is any occurrence of problems or bottlenecks problems, analysis of the production line, cycle
during running of the processes. Also simulation time. improve the production efficiency.
Kawthar A. Mohammed Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, P.P. 71- 78 (2019)

production line balance, workers and machine was optimized. Muralidaran and Sandeep [10]
performance. studied basically the analysis of an existent layout
Arena software can be used in modeling and in a pump manufacturing industry. They analyzed
simulation of flexible system for electrical the factory layout of manufacturing system, and an
machine assembly, M. Bruqi et al. [1] used Arena attempt has been made to mimic the existing
to model an electrical machine assembly and they layout of the industry by using the Arena software.
include design, analytical and optimization tasks of Stopper and Stuja [11] presented in Arena a two
complex production systems, computer different solutions for cycle time improvement
architecture, and gain good results. W. R. based on a flexible manufacturing cell for treating
Nyembaa and C. Mbohwab [2] attempted to cover parts. Marsudi and Shafeek [12] aimed to
develop an effective system for the materials flow imitate the production process of a metal stamping
of multi product furniture assembling factory industry and to estimate the utilization of the
through modelling and simulation, also provide the production line by using Arena simulation
demand at an appropriate time and a minimal cost. software.
R. Mathur et al. [3] studied the production of This work focused on evaluating an improving
utensils and the impact of the location of the in existing yogurt production line; Abu Ghraib
machines in a plant and employee's amenities on Dairy Factory in Iraq which has several machines
the efficiency of the production. also attempted to of food processing and packing. Arena Software is
improve the factory layout through using Arena applied for simulating and analyzing the current
simulation. M. S. Eryilmaza et al. [4] studied shoe state of the production system, and results are
manufacturing that was analyzed and modeled in expanded to improve the system production and
Arena and specific production policy was efficiency.
implemented and developed for the shoe making
company. R. P. Nithin et al. [5] studied a
manufacturing planning for a PVC sheets of 2. Simulation Methodology
cooling towers and aimed to raise the productivity, 2.1. Real-World System Production
the simulation study was determined by Arena
software and was designed using CAD package. The system production is a FILL SEAL 4L which is
Lopez et al. [6] conducted in the area of an automatic filling/thermo sealing machine (shown in
gynecological surgery a time study program, to Fig.1.) manufactured by means of the most modern
indicate the current level of capacity and enhance construction methods and made of high quality
the programming time so as to respond to demand materials such as stainless steel and anodized aluminum
immediately. The system was analyzed by waiting duly treated against the corrosion.
lines and used Arena simulation to estimate
suggestions for enhancing and optimizing time of
the surgeries. Neubauer and Stewart [7] aimed to
improve service quality and decreasing the costs as
they found it is difficult to make the transition
from the simple model to modeling and simulating
actual processes on the computer, suggestions
were made to others who may want to utilize
Arena software to bring the process modeling into
the Public Affairs and Administration curriculum.
R. Mathur et al. [8] obtained arrangement, order of
the facilities and the efficient locations. The
industry of utensils was a typical example of a
work-flow shop that based production system.
Also they pursued to explore and improve the
current factory layout by making an attempt to
imitate the current and the proposed factory Fig. 1. FILL SEAL 4L Production machine.
layouts by using Arena software. Faisal et al. [9]
aimed to understand the attitude of a system or
estimating strategies for the operation of the The machine consists of the following:
system, Arena was used to comprehend the 1. Basement: The base represents the machine
standing layout and the utilization of each station body and all parts are installed on it such

72
Kawthar A. Mohammed Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, P.P. 71- 78 (2019)

pneumatic and electric members. To access the on a good preservation of product. The sealing
base, it is necessary to remove the side covers by station thermo seals the lids on the containers.
means of the endowed keys. 5. Ejection Station: It is the last station of the
2. Cups Denester: The cup denester is the first normal packaging cycle and makes the ejection of
operative station. Its function is to denest and to container from the machine. This station is usually
transfer the cups from the store into the cup holder. formed by 3 main parts: the elevator, the pusher,
Two forks with double section. being driven by a and the carrying ejection conveyor with
pneumatic cylinder, make the separation of a continuous operation.
container from the pile. 6. Control Panel: The control panel is the interface
3. Dosing Station: After being destacked, the cups that allows the operator to set the parameters of the
are filled by means of a volumetric doser endowed machine and check for proper operation. the
with a dosing regulator. On the doser there is a control panel consist of start button, stop button,
hopper for containing the product. The doser is emergency button, reset button and touch screen
entirely made of AISI 316 stainless steel and it is panel.
formed of a cylinder inside which there is a special
sucking-pumping piston and of pneumatic 2.2. Real-World System Modelling
dispenser which keep in sucking phase the product
is brought from the hopper to the suction chamber. The time has been calculated manually of each
4. Sealing Station: The sealing station performs the process (in seconds) 30 times. After calculating the
most important task of the packaging cycle. In data, the real-world process is simulated and
fact, the sealing efficiency depends on the correct modeled in Arena software. Figure (2) represent
working of this station (on the quality of the the model for all the processes in Arena.
employed materials and on the compatibility of the
cup with the thermo sealing lid too) and vouches

Fig. 2. Arena model of the processes.

The Arena model in this work consists of the

following processes:
1. Product Entry Process.
2. Material Filling
3. Sheet Covering
4. Can Sealing Fig. 3. Distribution diagram for product entry
5. Product Exit Process process.
By using input analyzer in Arena, the distribution
diagram is obtained for each process. Figure (3), (4),
(5), (6), and (7) show the distribution diagram for
product entry process, material filling, sheet covering,
can sealing, and product exit process respectively. and
data analysis for this process.

Fig. 4. Distribution diagram for material filling

process.

73
Kawthar A. Mohammed Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, P.P. 71- 78 (2019)

respectively. Presented data is the experimental

sample size collections for each process that
planned to be 30 observations for each experiment.
Collection analysis shows an expected
homogeneity that can be observed depending
Fig. 5. Distribution diagram for sheet covering
process. statistical variability of the system (Mean,
Standard deviation.) as following: (Entering: 4.72,
0.284), (Filling: 3.036, 0.152), (Covering: 3.42,
0.359), (Sealing: 2.60, 0.162), and (Exiting: 3.319,
0.224), all values are measured in seconds.

Fig. 6. Distribution diagram for can sealing process.

Fig. 7. Distribution diagram for product exit

process.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Input Results Analysis Fig. 8. Observation data for entering process.

The production line model has been modified to

mimics the actual system based on production rate.
Table (1) illustrates designed plan of the system to
run the production, the data that used to compare
with the simulation model outcomes and analyzing
improvement chances.

Table 1,
Designed plan of the system.
# Characteristic Value
1 Number of Processes 5
2 Number of Buffers 4
3 Number of shifts 1
4 Designed Production 5118 Products Fig. 9. Observation data for filling process.
5 Production Rate 4.22 sec.
6 Run per Shift 6 hr.
7 Run Length 21600 sec.

The input results for each process and for the

buffering can be discussed as the following:

1. Processes Inputs

System processing time is a leading factor for

characterizing the performance in terms of
production rate and demand responsiveness.
Figures (8), (9), (10), (11), and (13) show input Fig. 10. Observation data for covering process.
data for the simulation model for system processes
entering, filling, covering, sealing, and exiting

74
Kawthar A. Mohammed Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, P.P. 71- 78 (2019)

Fig. 11. Observation data for sealing process. Fig. 13. Input data for buffering time of filling
process.

Fig. 12. Observation data for exiting process.

Fig. 14. Input data for buffering time of covering
process.
2. Process Buffering Inputs

An automated system is required a standard

size of buffering which makes storage capacity for
each process is constant and basically controlled
for future improvement. Collected data analysis
for the system shows an expected stability can be
analyzed for ignoring the buffering variability of
the system (Max., Min.) as following: (For Filling:
37.82, 37.02), (For Covering: 17.33, 16.49), (For
Sealing: 18.41, 17.39), and (For Exiting: 16.91,
15.69), all values are measured in seconds. In the
real-world, the system has been designed for a
constant capacity of product, and the observed
variability is technically can be caused by the Fig. 15. Input data for buffering time of sealing
voltage fluctuations of conveyors motor. Figures process.
(13), (14), (15), and (16) show input data
description for modeling the system conveyors and
buffers.

75
Kawthar A. Mohammed Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, P.P. 71- 78 (2019)

is related for the current running situation of the

local zone due to the instability of the commitment
to the business time/days. Regarding to resources
utilization, it is clearly shown that system is stable
with a need to resetting the capacity as a chance
for the improvement. Re-planning resources
capacity positively enhances the production and
profitability of the system. Figure (17) visualizes
utilizations distribution for each process and
difference that can be used in the re-planning for
improving the system.
In the research, the evolution process of the real
system is done through analysis of the capacity of
Fig. 16. Input data for buffering time of exiting output products and the result shows that the
process. system is stable with demand.
There are many difficulties arise through
implementation of the research such as lack of
3.2. Outcome Results Analysis
local factories, even that the Abu Ghraib Dairy
The model of yogurt production has been Factory is not work for full time.
running many times to get a set of experimental
date for the purpose of results validity and
dependability. Results analysis verifies a strong
validity for improvement chances and future
planning of the system. Table (2) illustrates the
characteristic results of the performance and
improvements that are traveling time of products
in buffering for each process (waiting time),
number of seized products at each buffer (waiting
number), and the used capacity of system
resources in producing parts (utilization).
Moreover, other characters are resulted such as
number of planned part (Number In), number of
produced parts (Number Out), and system leading
time (Total Production Time) for the analysis. Fig. 17. Utilizations distribution for the processes.

Table 2,
Characteristic results analysis. In general, below % 80 of the resources
Filling Covering Sealing Exiting utilization is completely secured the system
Process Process Process Process running for a long production term as well as
proving a reasonable chance for increase the
Waiting 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Time
demand responsiveness of the system that makes
Waiting 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 the improvements are possible. % 0.7215 is
Number observed at the covering process that criticizes the
Utilization 0.6557 0.7215 0.5500 0.7000 improvements but on the other hand makes the
system planner is able to analyze the capability
Number 4,566 Number 4,563 Total 12.5 limits of the system for future investments.
In Out Time

4. Conclusion
Results analysis of the waiting time and
number as zeros approves the non-need to model According to the results, a simulation method
the buffering for each process as automated help researcher to build a software model which is
system. The production rate is closely similar to mimics the real system. Conducting experiments
the designed production that stated in previous on the model allows the researchers to analyze the
table (2), observed difference in the production as real system and predicates future behaviors. Arena

76
Kawthar A. Mohammed Al-Khwarizmi Engineering Journal, Vol. 15, No. 4, P.P. 71- 78 (2019)

is one of simple and professional simulation International Journal of Medical, Health,

software which is used to simulate the yogurt Biomedical, Bioengineering and
production line. The validation of the experimental Pharmaceutical Engineering Vol.7, No.7, 2013.
results of output products and actual number of [7] Bruce J. Neubauer and Shelley K. Stewart,
products is closed to 98%. "Introduction of government process modeling
with rockwell arena software", Journal of
Public Affairs Education. Vol.15, No.3, 2009.
5. References [8] R. Mathur, D. Shringi, A. K. Verma, " Facility
layout optimization using simulation: a case
[1] M. Bruqi, R. Likaj, J. Kacani, and A. Gjukaj, study of a steel utensils industry", International
"Modeling and simulation of flexible system Journal of Advance Engineering and Research
for electrical machine assembling", Development Vol. 3, Issue 3, March 2016.
International research/expert Conference, [9] Faisal KP, Falah Ummer, Hareesh K C,
Dubai, UAE, 10-12 September 2012. Munavir Ayaniyat, Nijab K, Nikesh P, Jibi R,"
[2] Wilson R. Nyembaa and Charles Mbohwab, Analysis and Simulation of Crankshaft
"Modelling, simulation and optimization of the Manufacturing Unit Using Arena",
materials flow of a multi-product assembling International Journal of Scientific and Research
plant", Procedia Manufacturing Journal, Vol. 8, Publications, Vol. 5, Issue 2, February 2015.
Pages 59-66, 2017. [10] Manivel Muralidaran V., Sandeep, " Layout
[3] R. Mathur, D. Shringi, A. K. Verma, "Facility planning in a pump manufacturing industry
layout optimization using simulation: a case using ARENA", International Journal of
study of a steel utensils industry", Vol. 3, Issue Scientific & Engineering Research, Vol. 5,
3, March 2016. Issue 5, May 2014.
[4] M. S. Eryilmaza, A. O. Kusakcib, H. [11] Stopper, M. & Stuja, K.," Optimizing cycle
Gavranovicc, F. Findikd, " Analysis of shoe time of a flexible manufacturing cell using
manufacturing factory by simulation of simulation software", 4th International
production processes", Southeast Europe DAAAM Conference, Tallinn, Estonia, 29 -
Journal of Soft Computing, Vol.1, No.1, March 30th April 2004.
2012. [12] Muhammad Marsudi, Hani Shafeek, " The
[5] R. P. Nithin, S. Gopikrishnan, A. Sumesh, " A evaluation of production line performance by
case study on Simulation and Design using ARENA – A case study", International
optimization to improve Productivity in cooling Journal of Industrial and Manufacturing
tower manufacturing industry", Journal of IOP Engineering, Vol.7, No.9, 2013.
Conference Series: Materials Science and
Engineering, Vol. 310, conference 1, 2018.
[6] J. A. Lopez, C.I. Lopez, J.E. Olguin, C.
Camargo, and J. M. Lopez, "Surgery
scheduling using simulation with arena",

77
 ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ‪ ،15‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ‪ ،4‬ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪(2019) 78 -71‬‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺛﺮ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺤﻤﻴﺪ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻮﻳﻢ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺃﺭﻳﻨﺎ‬

‫ﺃﻣﻴﺮ ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺩ***‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻅﻢ**‬ ‫ﻛﻮﺛﺮ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺤﻤﻴﺪ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺣﺴﻦ*‬
‫*‪ ** ،‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺆﺗﻤﺖ‪ /‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻲ‪ /‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺑﻐﺪﺍﺩ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‬
‫*** ﻗﺴﻢ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ‪ /‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻲ‪ /‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺑﻐﺪﺍﺩ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‬
‫*ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪[email protected] :‬‬
‫**ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪[email protected] :‬‬
‫***ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ‪[email protected] :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﻼﺻﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻫﻮ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﻲ؛ ﺧﻂ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﺃﺑﻮ ﻏﺮﻳﺐ ﻟﻸﻟﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺁﻻﺕ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﻭﺗﻐﻠﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺑﺪء ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺜﻮﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﻨﺎ ًء‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﻤﺪﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻛﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ .‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺃﺭﻳﻨﺎ‬
‫‪ Arena‬ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻭﻛﻔﺎءﺗﻪ‪ .‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻁﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻭﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻛﻴﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻈﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺃﺭﻳﻨﺎ ‪ Arena‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻫﻲ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻋﻮﺍﺋﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﺙ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﺤﺴﻴﻦ ﺍﻹﻓﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺨﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺑﻮﺻﻔﻬﺎ ﻓﺮﺻﺔً ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺴﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺗﻌﺰﺯ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺇﻳﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻭﺭﺑﺤﻴﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﺍﻟﻲ ‪.٪٩٨‬‬

‫‪78‬‬