Assignment 3

1. If one intends to compare the relative variation between two samples involving two different
quantitative variables with different measurement scales, then the most appropriate way is to
compare the two samples: 
a. Standard deviations
b. Variances
c. Coefficient of variations
d.. Ranges Ans: c
2.  ___________________ is a measure of the chance that an uncertain event will occur. 
a. Random experiment
b. Sample Space
c. Probability
d. A complement Ans : c
3. If events A and B are independent, then the probability of simultaneous occurrence of event
A and event B can be found with: 
a. P(A)·P(B)
b. P(A)·P(A|B)
c. P(B)·P(A|B)
d. All of the above are correct Ans : a
4. The set of all possible experimental outcomes is called a(n): 
a. Sample space
b. Event
c. Experiment
d.. Probability Ans : a
5. A(n) ____________ is the probability that one event will occur given that we know that
another event already has occurred. 
a. Subjective Probability
b. Complement of events
c. Long-run relative frequency
d. Conditional probability Ans : d
6. If P(A)>0 and P(B)>0 and events A and B are independent, then: 
a. P(A)=P(B)
b. P((A|B))=P(A)
c. P(A B)=0
d. P(A B)=P(A) P(B A) Ans : b

7. P(A   B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A   B) represents the formula for the 

a. Conditional probability
b. Addition rule
c. Addition rule for two mutually exclusive events
d. Multiplication rule Ans : b
8. A random variable is said to be discrete if 
a.  Its outcomes are countable
b. It can assume any real number within a given interval
c. The rules of probability apply
d. It can be represented graphically Ans: a
9. Which of the following descriptive statistics is least affected by outliers?
 a.) Mean
b.) Median
c.) Range
d.) Standard deviation Ans: b

10. Which of the following is an example of a continuous random variable?

a.) The number of cars in a automobile show room.

b.) The weight of a bag of rice.
c.) The number of repairs at a computer shop over the course of the week.
d.) The total runs scored in a baseball game. Ans : b
11. Which of the following would be an example of a discrete random variable?

a.) The monthly electric bill for a local business.

b.) The number of people eating at a local café between noon and 2:00 p.m.
c.) The amount of time it takes for a worker to complete a complex task.
d.) The percentage of people living below the poverty level in a particular city.
Ans : b

12. The probability that an employee at a company uses illegal drugs is 0.08. The probability
that an employee is male is 0.62. Assuming that these events are independent, what is the
probability that a randomly chosen employee is a male drug user?

a.) 0.64
b) 0.7
c.) 0.05
d.) 0.07 Ans : c
13. Which of the following is an example of a discrete random variable?

a.) How far you can drive in a car with a full tank of gas.
b.) The number of cows on a cattle ranch.
c.) The weight of a package at the post office.
d.) The amount of rain that falls over a 24-hour period.
Ans : b
14. Which of the following is an example of a continuous random variable?

a) The number of cars in a parking lot

b) The weight of a bag of potatoes.
c ) The number of repairs at a computer shop over the course of the week.
d) The total runs scored in a baseball game.
Ans: b
15. Discuss the different pictorial methods by which data can be represented. Which pictorial
method would you like to use to show the educational background of the employees of a
company and the number of such employees.
 Solution: Different methods of presenting qualitative data are bar charts and pie charts.
Different methods of presenting quantitative data are histograms, frequency polygon and
cumulative frequency curve.
Explain each of these methods briefly with example., as we have done in class.
For showing educational background of employees, use bar charts or pie charts.

16.. Distinguish between Discrete and Continuous Probability distribution.

Ans : Discrete probability distribution: Here the variable X takes only whole number values
e.g. No.of children Probabilty
2 0.7
3 0.1
1 0.2
Continuous probability distribution: Here the variable X takes whole number values as well
as decimal values.
Marks Probability
30 0.5
50.5 0.3
60 0.2

17. The probability that a consumer will be exposed to an advertisement for a certain
product by seeing a commercial on television is 0.04. The probability that the consumer will be
exposed to the product by seeing an advertisement on a bill board is 0.06. The two events, being
exposed to commercial and being exposed to the bill board ad, are assumed to be independent.

a. What is the probability that the consumer will be exposed to both advertisements?
b. What is the probability that he or she will be exposed to at least one of the ads?
P(TV ) = 0.04, P(Bill board) = 0.06
(a) P( TVΩ Bill board) = 0.04 X 0.06 = 0.0024

(b) P(TV U Bill board) = P(TV) + P (Billboard) – P( TV Ω Billboard) = 0.04 + 0.06 –

0.0024 = 0.0976

18. Distinguish between Mutually exclusive events and Independent Events

Ans: Mutually exclusive events do not have any elements in common while independent
events do not depend on each other. For mutually exclusive events, P( A∩ B ) = 0 , while for
independent events, P( A∩ B) = P(A). P(B)

19. A company has 140 employees, of which 30 are supervisors. Eighty of the employees are
married, and 20% of the married employees are supervisors. If a company employee is randomly
selected, what is the probability that the employee is married and is a supervisor.

Solution: Let S be the event that an employee is a supervisor, M is the event that the employee is
married.
P(S) = 30/140 = 0.214, P(M) = 80/140 = 0.571, P(S/M) = 0.2
P(M∩S) = P(S/M) x P(M) = 0.2 x 0.571 = 0.114

20. Patients who suffer from Kidney damage usually require transplantation. 20% donors are
people who agree to donate for a payment which is illegal. 30% of donors are those who are
brain dead and willingly agree and rest of the donors are immediate family members. Kidney’s
donated does not always suit the patient and patient’s body rejects and thus he dies. 25% are
 cases of such rejections if taken from donors who take payment, 10% rejections happen with
cases where the kidney is taken from brain dead patients, and 2% rejections happen even if the
kidney is donated from immediate family members.

If it is known that a randomly chosen patient who has had kidney transplant has died, what is the
probability that the kidney was purchased illegally.

Solution: Let A1 be the event that donor takes payment, A2 is the event that donor is a brain
dead patient and A3 is the event that donor is a family member. Let B be the event that patient’s
body rejects the kidney and he dies.
P(A1) = 0.2, P(A2) = 0.3, P(A3) = 0.5, P(B/A1) = 0.25, P(B/A2) = 0.1, P(B/A3) = 0.02, We have
to find P(A1/B)
P(A1∩B) = P(B/A1)P(A1) = 0.2 x 0.25 = 0.05, P(A2∩B) = P(B/A2) P(A2) = 0.1 x 0.3 = 0.03
P(A3∩B) = P(B/A3)P(A3) = 0.02 x 0.5 = 0.01
P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) +P( A3∩B) = 0.05 + 0.03 + 0.01 = 0.09
Hence P(A1/B) = P( A1∩B)/ P(B) = 0.05/ 0.09 = 5/9

21. Three machines producing 40%, 35% and 25% of the total output are known to produce with
defective proportion of items as: 0.04, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively. On a particular day, a unit of
output is selected at random, and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was
produced by the second machine? ( 6 + 9 = 15 )

Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.
P(A1) = 0.4, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.25, P(B/A1) = 0.04, P(B/A2) = 0.06, P(B/A3) = 0.03
P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.4 x 0.04 = 0.016, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.06 = 0.021,
P(A3∩B) = PA3) P(B/A3) = 0.25 x 0.03 = 0.0075
So P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P A2∩B) + P(A3∩B) = 0.016 + 0.021 + 0.0075 = 0.0445
P(A2/B) = P(A2∩B) / P(B) = 0.021/ 0.0445 = 0.47

22. Three bags contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black balls respectively. One of
the bag is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is red, find the
probability that it is drawn form the first bag. (10)

Solution: Let A1 be the event that first bag is selected, A2 is the event that second bag is s
selected and A3 is the event that third bag is selected. B is the event that a red ball is selected.

P(A1) = 1/3, P(A2) = 1/3, P(A3) = 1/3, P(B/A1) = 6/10, P(B/A2) = 4/10, P(B/A3) = 5/10

P(A1/B) = ?

P(A1∩B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) = 1/3 x 6/10 = 1/5, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 1/3 x 4/10 = 2/15

P(A3∩B) = P(A3) P(B/A3) = 1/3 x 5/10 = 1/6

P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) +P(A3∩B) = 1/5 + 2/15 + 1/6 = ½

P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B)/ P(B) = 1/5 / ½ = 2/5 = 0.4

23. 25% of the applicants for a job are known to overrate themselves in their CV. While going
for an interview, 50% of those who overrate themselves somehow manage to get selected and
only 20% of those who do not overate themselves manage to get themselves selected for the job .
Given that the person got selected for the job what is the probability that he had overrated his
CV.

Solution: Let A1 be the event that an applicant overrates himself/herself and let A2 be the event
that applicant does not overrate themselves. Let B be the event that the applicant is selected.
So P(A1) = 0.25, P(A2) = 0.75 because A2 is the complement of A1.
P(B/A1) = 0.5, P(B/A2) = 0.2
P(A1∩B) = P(A1).P(B/A1) = 0.25 x 0.5 = 0.125, P(A2∩B) = P(A2). P(B/A2) = 0.75 x 0.2 = 0.15
P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P (A2∩B) = 0.125 + 0.15 = 0.275
So P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B)/P(B) = 0.125/ 0.275 = 0.45

24. A biometric security devise using fingerprints erroneously refuses to admit 1 in 1000
authorized persons from a facility containing classified information. The device will
erroneously admit 1 in 10,00,000 unauthorized persons. Assume that 95% of those who seek
access are authorized. If the alarm goes off and a person is refused admission, what is the
probability that really authorized?

Ans: Here A1 is the event that the person is authorized, A2 is the event that the person is not
authorized, B is the event that the person is refused admission and B bar is the event that the
person is admitted.
P(A1) = 0.95, P(A2) = 0.05, P(B/A1) = 1/1000, P(B bar /A2) = 1/1000000, P(A1/B) = ?

Use Bayes theorem and multiplication theorem, i.e. prior and posterior probabilities.

P( A1 ∩ B) = 0.95 x 1/1000 = 0.00095, P( A2 ∩ B bar) = 0.05 x 1/1000000 = 0.00000005,

P( A2 ∩B) + P( A2 ∩ B bar) = P ( A2)
So P( A2 ∩ B) = P( A2) – P ( A2 ∩ B bar) = 0.05 – 0.00000005 = 0.04999995
P(B) = P( A1∩B) + P( A2∩B) = 0.00095 + 0.04999995 = 0.05094995
P( A1/B) = P( A1∩B) / P(B) = 0.00095/ 0.05094995 = 0.018

25. If P(A∩B) = 0.3, P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4, can we say that events A and B are independent
events. Give justification for your answer.
Ans: Since P(A∩B) ≠ P(A) . P(B) , hence events A and B are not independent.

26. Three machines are used to produce a product. Machine 1 produces 20% of the product,
machine 2 produces 35% of product and the rest are produced using machine 3. Each machine
sometimes produces defective products. Probability of producing defective goods using machine
1 is 0.05, probability of defective goods given it is produced by machine 2 is 0.02 and probability
of defective goods using machine 3 is 0.01. If a random item is selected and is found to be
defective, what is the probability that it was produced in machine 1.
Hint: Use Prior and Posterior probabilities.
Solution: Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events that product is made by machines 1, 2 and 3 respectively.
Let B be the event that the product is defective.
P(A1) = 0.2, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.45, P(B/A1) = 0.05, P(B/A2) = 0.02, P(B/A3) = 0.01
P(A1∩B) = P(A1).P(B/A1) = 0.2 x 0.05 = 0.01, P(A2∩B) = P(A2). P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.02 = 0.007,
 P(A3∩B) = P(A3). P(B/A3) = 0.45 x 0.01 = 0.0045
P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) + P(A3∩B) = 0.01 + 0.007 + 0.0045 = 0.0215
P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B) / P(B) = 0.01/ 0.0215 = 0.465

27. It is known that 40% of the students in a certain college are girls and 50% of the students are
above the median height. If 2/3 of the boys are above median height, what is the probability that a
randomly selected student who is below the median height is a girl?
Solution: Let M be the event that a student is above median height and let G be the event that
student is a girl.

P(G) =0.4,P(M ) = 0.5 so P( M bar) = 0.5, P(Boy)= 0.6

P(M/boy) = 2/3 , so P( Mbar/ boy)= 1/3, P(G/M bar) = ?
P(G/M bar) = P(G∩M bar)/ P(M bar)
P( G∩M bar) + P( boy ∩ M bar)=P(M bar)
P( G∩M bar) + P( M bar / boy). P(boy) =P(M bar)
P( G∩M bar) + 1/3 x 0.6 = 0.5
P( G∩M bar) = 0.5-0.2 = 0.3
P(G/M bar) = 0.3/ 0.5 =0.6

28. Computers A and B are to be marketed. A salesman who is assigned the job of finding customers
for them has 60% and 40% chances respectively of succeeding in case of computer A and B. The
two computers can be sold independently. Given that the salesman is able to sell at least one
computer, what is the probability that computer A has been sold?

Ans: P[A]=0.6, P[B]= 0.4

P[A∩B]= P[A] P[B]= 0.6 x 0.4 = 0.24
We have t0 find P[AUB] = P[A] + P[B] - P[A∩B] =0.6 + 0.4 -0.24 = 0.76

29. A manufacturing firm purchases a certain component, for its manufacturing process, from 3
subcontractors A, B and C. These supply 60%, 30% and 10% of the firm’s requirements
respectively. It is known that 2%, 5% and 8% of the items supplied by the respective suppliers are
defective. On a particular day, a normal shipment arrives from each of the 3 suppliers and the
contents get mixed. A component is chosen at random from the day’s shipment.
(a) What is the probability that it is defective?
(b) If the component is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was supplied by (i)A (ii)
B (iii) C?

Ans: similar t0 Q.26