Measurement of Inflation
Measurement of Inflation
Measurement of Inflation
Inflation refers to the persistent increase in the general price level of goods and
services in an economy in a given period of time.
It occurs when the demand for goods and services persistently increases beyond
the output level so that there is a tendency for the prices of goods and services and
for the factors of production to rise because they fail to keep the place with demand
for them.
When we say an economy is experiencing inflation, we mean that prices of most
commodities are rising leading to increase in the average price level and decline in
value of money.
MEASUREMENT OF INFLATION
P 1−P0
Inflation can be measured using the consumer price index i.e. P0
X 100
Where P1 is the current price index and P0 is base year/reference year price index.
For example
if the price of sugar in 2002 was 2000 /- and 2006 it was 3000/- calculate the rate
of inflation in that period of time.
2. Reflation:
This refers to deliberate government policy to force price upwards to recover
from depression
Or deliberate government macroeconomic policy designed to increase prices in
order to lift an economy out of depression.
Instruments / tools of reflationary policy.
Tax reduction to increase purchasing power and demand for goods.
Increase in government expenditure e.g subsidization of producers.
Increasing wages of workers to boost their purchasing power.
Encouraging exports by reducing export duty.
Use of expansionary monetary policy.
3. Deflation:
This is persistent decrease in general prices of goods and services in an
economy.
Tools of deflationary policy include:
Reducing government expenditure
Using a restrictive monetary policy
Increase in taxes
2|ECON NOTES BY A.N
Reducing wages.
4. Disinflation:
This is economic situation where general prices fall due to planned anti
deflationary measures. General prices fall without decline in output or
employment.
5. Expectation inflation:
This is a rise in general price level brought about by speculation. In this
situation sellers hoard commodities expecting better prices in future which
in turn increases the general price level.
6. Anticipated inflation:
This is a situation of increase in the general price level where people expect
higher increase in general prices in future.
Or a situation in which there is persistent increase in general price level due
to firms expecting prices to increase again in future. (Speculative inflation)
7. Indexation:
This is the method of controlling effects of inflation where all forms of
incomes or payments are adjusted upwards so as to cope with the level of
inflation/rising cost of living.
8. Open inflation:
This occurs when markets of goods and services are allowed to operate
freely, setting prices for commodities without government intervention.
There are no checks / controls of commodity prices and distribution of
commodities. Open inflation later leads to hyper inflation.
9. Suppressed inflation:
Is a situation where aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply but the
effects of general price increase are minimized by government price controls
and rationing.
Indicators of suppressed inflation in an economy.
Price control and rationing of goods.
Hoarding of goods and services.
Black marketing i.e selling of commodities illegally at high prices.
Increase in waiting lists in the labour market.
Public queuing of scarce resources.
Increase licensing by the government.
Effects of suppressed inflation
3|ECON NOTES BY A.N
Leads to misallocation of resources
Leads to rising levels of unemployment
Promotes trade malpractices e.g smuggling of goods.
Discourages investments in the country.
10.Headline inflation:
This is the increase in the general price level in an economy caused by
mainly increase in food prices. This inflation has direct bearing on the cost
of living.
11.Underlying inflation:
This is increase in the general price level of mainly consumer goods
excluding increase in food prices.
CLASSIFICATION OF INFLATION.
Inflation can be classified into two major forms.
Price S
P2
P1 E
Agg dd2
S
Agg dd1
0 Q1 Q1 output
From the illustration, aggregate demand and supply are at equilibrium at point E
with price P1 and quantity Q1. An increase in aggregate demand for goods and
services leads to a shift in aggregate demand from aggregate dd1 to aggregate dd2.
4. Profit-push inflation.
It’s the persistent increase in general price level due to greed or desire for
profits by traders.
Or a situation that arises due to firm’s desire to earn abnormal profits hence
increase in cost of production and prices. This is common with monopoly
and oligopoly firms which restrict output and increase prices so as to earn
abnormal profits.
5. Raw material - push inflation.
Is inflation which occurs due to the increase in the cost of raw materials
which forces the producers to charge higher prices for their commodities
thus leading to inflation in the long run.
10 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
CAUSES OF STRUCTURAL INFLATION
1. Break down of key industries. This leads to limited supply of industrial
products which causes their prices to go up because of the high competition
for them.
2. Scarcity of raw materials necessary for production of goods and services,
this can be attributed to exhaustion of natural resources.
3. Political instability in an economy, this disrupts production thus leading to
low supply /scarcity of some essential commodities and thus high prices
because of the excessive demand for them.
4. Natural hazards such as floods, drought etc causing failure in agricultural
sector hence decline in supply of agricultural products.
5. Break down of infrastructure which leads to low productivity making
transportation of goods from one place to another difficult.
6. Shortage of foreign exchange, this is due to poor export sector and low
capital inflow leading to decline in supply of essential goods.
7. Hoarding of goods by traders through speculation hence causing temporally
shortage of commoditities.
11 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
(iv) MONETARY INFLATION
This is a type of inflation which arises due to increase in money supply
which is not backed by a corresponding increase in production
It occurs when the central bank prints more money to finance budget
deficits. This increase in money supply, increases aggregate demand of
goods and services which results into increase in general prices of goods and
services.
Solutions to monetary inflation
1. Using restrictive monetary policy e.g increasing bank rate or selling treasury
bills to the public.
2. Using wage freeze i.e deliberate holding of wages at their existing level at
specified period of time to limit wage increase.
3. Use of currency reforms so as to reduce money in circulation.
4. Increasing direct taxes so as to reduce people’s disposable income.
5. Reducing borrowing from central bank by commercial banks.
13 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
3. Using international commodity agreements so as to stabilize prices of
imports and exports.
4. Subsidizing importers especially those dealing in importation of essential
goods.
5. Reducing invisible costs e.g transport cost, insurance premiums, handling
charges etc.
6. Importing goods from countries which are free from inflation.
NB: Theories of inflation are basically the source of inflation e.g. demand
pull theory of inflation; cost push theory of inflation, structural theory of
inflation e.t.c.
16 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
EFFECTS OF INFLATION
The positive effects/reasons why mild inflation is desirable.
Positive effects of inflation are associated with mild inflation since it is the one that
encourages production and they include;
1. Mild inflation promotes forced savings. During inflationary period people
receive income whose purchasing power is weak, they are forced to take up
savings for future investments thus leading to the growth of the economy.
2. Helps to pull an economy out of a depression. This is because increase in
money supply increases aggregate demand causing an economic recovery.
3. Stimulates investment and production in an economy, and this is because of
increased profits earned by the business men which is an incentive to
investment and production.
4. Stimulates hard work, mild inflation stimulates people’s effort to work
harder so as to cope with rising costs of living.
5. Creates employment opportunities, because it encourages entrepreneurs to
establish more investment so as to earn high profits from rising prices hence
job creation.
6. Promotes increased resource utilization, due to inflation, idle resources are
exploited so as to earn profits hence minimizing underutilization.
7. Promotes industrialization, inflation may force the country to establish
import substitution industries in order to avoid importation of goods from
inflation prone countries thus industrialization of the economy.
8. Encourages innovativeness and creativity, during inflationary period
entrepreneur becomes innovative in order to cope with rising cost of living
which eventually promotes technological development.
9. Borrowers or debtors gain during inflation, inflationary periods borrower
tend to benefit in real terms because they pay back money to lenders which
has low value than what they borrowed.
10. Provides government revenue,, government imposes taxes on peoples
incomes in order to fight inflation and this increases the level of government
revenue from taxation
11. Encourages mobility of labour, this results in to labour efficiency hence
increase in quality and quantity of products produced.
12. Stimulates production more so during times when producers produce at
excess capacity and this is because of the increase in the aggregate demand
17 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
for goods and services. This in the end leads to optimum utilization of
resources and economic growth at large.
13. Helps to monetize the economy, inflation as a result of increase in money
supply, increases the use of money in economic transactions which
eventually reduces the size of subsistence sector.
14. Helps to reduce the Balance of payment problems of an economy and this is
because mild inflation stimulates production which can in the end lead to an
increase in the volume of the country’s exports.
QN.
Under what circumstances may inflation be desirable in an economy?
NEGATIVE EFFECTS
1. Discourage investment, High rates of inflation discourages since the costs of
production are always very high and this leads to shortages of goods and
services in an economy.
2. Makes planning difficult, this is due to unpredictable changes in the cost of
production due to loss of money value as result of rising prices.
3. Discourages savings, high inflation discourages people from savings with
financial institutions due to constant loss of money value.
4. The government becomes un popular, due to inflation , the nationals tend to
lose confidence in the local currency due to constant loss of money value
and this eventually erodes the popularity of the government.
5. Leads to capital out flow as people tend to invest in other countries that
experience low rates of inflation.
6. Promotes income inequality, inflation promotes uneven distribution of
income between consumers who make the use of expensive goods and the
producer goods.
7. Leads to unemployment, inflation creates unemployment problem because
some inefficient firms collapse due to higher cost of production thus
rendering workers in such firms jobless.
8. Reduces production, potential investors/producers are discouraged due to
higher cost of production which forces firms to produce inferior goods
leading to low standard of living/ low consumption.
18 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
9. Strains people to over work, people have to work for longer hours in order to
earn higher wages so as to cope up with the high costs of living due to the
high prices of goods and services.
10. Leads to brain drain, high inflationary rates tend to force the locally trained /
skilled labour to leave the country for other countries in search for better
payment hence shortage of skilled labour in the economy (stagflation).
11. Leads to industrial unrest, inflation promote industrial unrest due to
constant demand for higher wages by employees /workers to meet the rising
cost of living.
12. Worsens balance of payment problem, inflation makes exports expensive
leading to a fall in foreign exchange from exports due to low demand for
them yet the demand for expensive imports rises causing B.O.P problem.
13. Discourages lending / creditors lose, during inflation periods, lending is
discouraged since creditors/lenders tend to make losses because they get
back money from debtors/borrowers which has lost value/low purchasing
power.
QN.
Under what circumstances may inflation be undesirable in an economy?
19 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N
6. They both lead to low standard of living in an economy since they increase
costs of living.
7. They may both cause unpopularity to the government in power because they
may generate social unrest and political instabilities.
8. May both lead to income inequalities in an economy i.e. between the rich
business men that charge higher prices for goods and services and the
unemployed (consumers).
END
20 | E C O N N O T E S B Y A . N