Worst Case Scenario of Nuclear Accidents - Human Extinction
Worst Case Scenario of Nuclear Accidents - Human Extinction
Worst Case Scenario of Nuclear Accidents - Human Extinction
For disaster risk assessment, we need to know two parameters: the total
content of nucleotides in nuclear power plants, and the magnitude of
contamination, which can lead to global consequences.
We take two main sources of information:
“Importance of severe accidents radiological releases and definition of large
damage”. http://ompldr.org/vN3d4YQ International Journal of nuclear power, Jule
2005. Next - st.2005
And «Spent Nuclear Fuel Inventories at Commercial US Nuclear Plants».
Next - st. 1994.
http://www.davistownmuseum.org/cbm/RadxIntegratedDatabase.html
Source st2005 shows that the expected number of casualties after complete
destruction of a modern reactor is about 200 000 people, divided into three groups:
the direct victims of irradiation (540 people) and cancer victim from fast living
isotopes and long-lived isotopes. But this numbers are subject to the evacuation
from areas of infection.
The main difference between this and the global catastrophe is that in case of
global catastrophe mass evacuation is not possible.
St2005 argues that the 1.7 * 10 ** 20 is a total number of decays in the
reactor one hour after the stop or approximately 2 billion curies. (And Chernobyl
release was only about 50 million curies).
Radiation can lead to the extinction of humans in several ways, in order of
decreasing doses:
1) Death from acute radiation sickness (1000 rem per week)
2) Death due to prolonged exposure (10 years), high doses of radiation (100
rem/year), the consumption of contaminated foods. The internal effects of radiation
are 10 times stronger than external training, and beta emitters are dangerous only
when eaten. Causes: cancer, weakened immunity and premature aging.
3) Sterility.
4) The increased level of mutations leading to the total genetic degradation
over several generations.
5) The crop failure, hunger. Banned food production (10 curies per square
km.)
6) The emergence of dangerous "mutants" in nature - predators, bacteria and
viruses - this story came from science fiction.
This should take account of the isotopes, which have the greatest ability to
accumulate in the human body. Unfortunately, the main reactor isotopes have the
ability to linger in the body. This is iodine, cesium, strontium and plutonium.
EVALUATION OF SCENARIOS
3. Devil's Tube
That is, the formation of a large drop of very heavy liquid fuel, which is on
its way to melt all - concrete, gravel, rock.
A similar project is discussed in an article in “Nature” to create a probe that
could reach the Earth's core. This so-called Stevenson probe, which consists of 1
million tons of molten iron and burns its way down.
As shown by Milan Cirkovic in his article "Geo-engineering that went awry"
http://www.proza.ru/2007/11/10/290 penetrating Earth curst with huge drop of
molten metal (Stevenson probe) can lead to the formation of the channel to the
molten core of the Earth up to the surface on which the top begins to break out of
magma and gases. This will lead to degassing of the nucleus in the form of a giant
volcanic eruption that will completely change the composition of the atmosphere
and destroy all life on Earth.
It was shown that even a small drop of fuel - 10 kg - will dive at a speed of
2.5 meters / day. A drop of several hundred tons can dive to a few tens of meters
per day, I think. Or 10 km per year, for instance.
Under Japan are large volcanic reservoirs that feed the Fuji and other
volcanoes, the distance to them is around a few tens of kilometers down. It is
unknown whether there are magma tanks directly under the Fukusima station.
In the mantle of the movement will drop even faster as mantia is hot and
plastic.
Time to reach these volcanic reservoirs may be about 10 years. It is possible
that the channel behind the fuel droplet is completely closed, but it is possible that
he will remain softer due to residual fuel on its walls. Then this channel will
extrude up, like toothpaste from a tube.
And well, if this shallow reservoir, which simply spit out the fuel and lead to
the emergence of a new volcano. Worse, if the drop reach a deep reservoir at a
depth of hundreds of kilometers, or to the very earth core, which will mentioned
above degassing of the core (which is probably long overdue, and already partly
taken place on Venus). This immersion of the drop can take dozens of years, in the
course of which nothing much will be observed.
Or maybe less. According to personal communication of a Russian scientist,
they performed studies on the establishment of a nuclear reactor, glorifying its way
inside the earth to deliver a research probe to the core, and the term of his dives are
much smaller.
This problem is reduced to the point 1, but the scale will be at least 100
times less pollution will not be short-lived isotopes.
The consequences of such a catastrophe would be less than when the nuclear
attack on a nuclear power plant, but otherwise comparable. Such initial catastrophe
can only cover a large area - otherwise it will itself be a global and lead to the
destruction of humanity before it dies from radiation.
This is the worst case lead to the fact that each of the 400 reactors events
unfold, as the Fukushima-1. As a result of significant contamination occurs
industrial areas, which coupled with the shutdown of electricity would make
problematic a rapid recovery of an industrial civilization. That is, there are
probability of transition to the spiral of a systemic crisis that could lead to the
extinction of mankind.
Note that the very nature of self-sustaining system crisis is not very
dependent on the cause, which started it, and it will develop on its own laws, and
the likelihood will it to extinction or not depends on its intrinsic properties, which
are still difficult to assess.
Conclusion
Surely this list is not complete, as to come up with these scenarios was
simple, and some may be much harder.
Only the following scenarios could lead to a complete human extinction:
• Strike by nuclear missiles on the majority of reactors on Earth, which leads
to a nuclear explosion of each reactor. The probability of it depends both on the
strike itself (it can safely be estimated as less than 1 percent for 21) and on the
likelihood that a nuclear strike on the reactor will cause it to explode (also less than
1 percent), totaling 0.01 percent maximum. (It probably has not seen as a measure
of frequency of an event, but as a measure of the rate that we should do at this
event, see "The structure of global catastrophe").
• Penetration of corium to the Earth's core with subsequent degassing. This
scenario is also unlikely - it can be estimated as equal to the probability of the
previous one.
• System crisis of colossal catastrophe in nuclear power plants. This crisis is
starting a chain of irreversible degradation.
Thus, the plant could lead to humanity died with a probability of 0.03% in
the 21 century, which is significantly greater than the risk of catastrophe at the
collider, but less risk of AI, nanotech and biological weapons.
Currently, nuclear power plants provide about 6 percent of world energy
production, on a par with the burning of biomass (ie wood and dung - 4%). That is,
nuclear power can not save humanity from the energy crisis in the current number.
If the middle of the 21 st century it will be the main producer of energy, which in
principle can be achieved using reactors and thorium breeders, their number should
increase by about 50 times (up to 20 000 reactors). Number of long-lived wastes
will increase even more, because life will increase. In this case, global catastrophe
with all the nuclear power plant will release 50 times more radiation, and the
likelihood that it will lead to the extinction of humanity increase.
Availability of nuclear weapons by the middle of the 21 st century will also
rise, as due to the spread of nuclear power plants themselves, and because of
cheaper production technologies of anything (nanotech). The accuracy of missiles
also will grow. As a result of nuclear attack on the plant becomes more likely.