DISPERSION MODELLING

The purpose of this document is to help the operators and manufacturers to comprehend the hazards
associated with the dispersion of flammable or toxic gases/vapours and to increase awareness about the
use of dispersion modelling to strengthen their safety capabilities.
This datasheet is based on experience gained by Sigma-HSE
while helping the clients with their similar needs for dispersion
analysis for wide range of gases/vapour for different
atmospheric conditions and applications. The guidance
provided is for reference purposes. It should be noted that
direct use of the guidance provided in this datasheet for any
specific application is not advised.
A model is a simplified picture of a complex reality. It doesn’t
necessarily contain all the features of the actual phenomena
but contains the features of interest for solving a problem with
a decent degree of accuracy. A harmful gas or vapor released
into the atmosphere, intentionally or unintentionally, will be
carried to a distance by large-scale air-flows and dispersed by small-scale air-flows or turbulence, which dilutes the
gas/vapour by mixing it with air. To solve the problem associated with the effect of a certain quantity gas release into
potentially populated areas, a mathematical model can be prepared with simplification (or approximation) of some
factors which govern the transport and turbulence, collectively termed as ‘dispersion’ of the gas. This model is referred
as ‘dispersion modelling’.
Literature defines the dispersion model as a `mathematical simulation of the physics and chemistry governing the
transport, dispersion and transformation of pollutants in the ambient air or atmosphere.’ A dispersion model is an
excellent tool for estimation of extents of pollution or hazards associated with the leakage of vapor or gas. Dispersion
models can be of many forms. The simplest form can be a graph or a table or simple calculations done on paper. Today,
the concept of modelling is evolved through software to simulate real-life problems such as dispersion with far greater
accuracy.
The process of dispersion modelling serves many purposes including providing management with a tool to assist the
decision-making process such as facility siting, to identify the major incident hazards and effect zone, and to strengthen
the emergency preparedness capabilities of the plant and emergency services. To help with different decisions,
dispersion modelling studies should be carried out at different stages of project development. For example, the
dispersion modelling study carried out during a project FEED stage, will identify the critical areas where the release and
subsequent effect on critical areas surrounding the equipment. This can be used to ensure greater design safety by
placing the equipment and critical areas (such as control rooms or normally occupied areas) at safer distances. The same
can be applied for siting of Flare stacks inside a processing plant, to ensure that hot flue gases are released at such
elevation that flare emissions will not cause nuisances for plant personnel or the local off-site population. Another
typical example of this type of modelling is to determine the case for emergency response and management.
Dispersion modelling is also mandated by Government Agencies around the world for many type of developments. For
example, MoEF (ministry of environment and forestry) of India have made it mandatory for all types of installations to
have such dispersion modelling studies carried out at the design stage to ensure a minimal impact on local environment
and population. Other countries also have similar regulatory frameworks which mandate the use of robust dispersion
modelling tool.

Sigma-HSE (India) Pvt Ltd, Office 1008-1009, Mercantile House, KG Marg, Connaught Place, New Delhi 110 001, India
 Serving Clients Globally from our Offices in Europe, Asia and the Middle East

Dispersion Modelling Procedure

The dispersion modelling procedure can be
detailed into the following four distinct stages.
• The first stage is for data input. The data
required for modelling of dispersion
phenomenon for an operation is identified
by review of the process and
meteorological information such as source
pressure and temperature, prevalent wind
speed and stability class, external
geographical elements, etc.
• The second stage is processing the
information extracted in the first stage
using an appropriate dispersion model.
The choice of model is the most important Overview of Dispersion Modeling Process
factor governing the success of the entire
process.
• The third stage involves extraction of results in the required formats (graphs, tables etc.) for further analysis. For
some types of models, the data obtained from the second stage is further processed for converting it into a usable
format. A typical example of this is CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) based analysis where the data from
calculation core (result tables) are converted into profiles (graphs) for further analysis using post-processing
software tools.
• The final stage of this process is to analyse the data obtained from Dispersion modelling. This requires a certain
degree of expertise. An experienced analyst reviews the possible effects of the dispersion onto the plant, personnel
and environment and makes recommendations for preventing and/or mitigating the effects of the vapour release
so that it does not cause severe damage or breach regulatory threshold limits.
The modelling of complex phenomenon like dispersion requires adequate formal training and a good degree of
understanding of relevant physics and chemistry. It is always preferred that this analysis is carried out by a specialist,
rather than operators attempting to do the analysis by themselves.

Types of Dispersion Models

The key element of an effective dispersion
modelling study, is to choose an appropriate
model to match the scale of impact and
complexity of a discharge. The most common
models can be broadly categorized into
following;
• Gaussian-plume models such as UDM,
AUSPLUME, ISCST3, AEROMOD etc.
• Advanced models such as CALPUFF and
TAPM
As shown in figure, the width of the band
associated with each model type is roughly
proportional to the its usage in the industry. The
biggest band is assigned to empirical models or
Gaussian-Plume Models such as UDM or ISC.
These empirical models are best-suited for
medium atmospheric and topographical Type of model (based on complexity of problem)

conditions with relatively simple effects. In more complex atmospheric and topographical conditions advanced puff or

©2021 Sigma-HSE (India) Pvt Ltd Page 2 of 4 Tel: +91 (0)11 4356 5446
 Serving Clients Globally from our Offices in Europe, Asia and the Middle East

particle models and meteorological modelling may be required to maintain a similar degree of accuracy as that of
Gaussian-Plume Models. In choosing the most appropriate model it is very important to understand the model’s
limitations and apply it only to the applications that match the model’s capabilities.
Some useful tips for selection of appropriate dispersion model are provided below.
• Plume models are best-suited for near-field (within 10km from source) calculations.
• Use advanced models for applications where the traverse time of gas/ vapour from source to critical receptor is of
interest. The plume models are not suitable for these applications as they do not consider time taken by the plume
to travel from one location to another.
• Do not expect the dispersion models to perform chemical reactions. Chemical reaction simulations should be done
in dedicated software and the products of the reaction can be modelled using dispersion tools.
• For areas with complex terrain or environment such as coastal regions, plume models are not readily suitable
• Plume models are unlikely to accurately model stagnation events such as stable night weather condition.

Interpreting the Results

As stated earlier, the true success of the modelling lies with appropriate and in-depth comprehension of the dispersion
analysis study results. A tabulated form of information may create confusion for a very large sample set or more than
three parameters. Conversion of tables into graphs help the analyst and the end-user with easy interpretation of results.
Interpretation of such graphical result formats are discussed below.
• Cloud Footprint: The cloud footprint is
way of representation of physical extents
of a value of concentration of gas or vapor
at an elevation from ground level.
• Side-View of Cloud: The side view of a
release represents the vertical cross-
section of cloud being dispersed.
It helps the user to understand the Footprint of Toxic Dispersion
downwind distance at which the
dispersed cloud of a certain concentration
may come in contact with sensitive
receptors.
• Lethality Vs. Distance: This graph is
plotted based on probit equation of the
gas which is released and dispersed into
the atmosphere. It represents the
percentage of fatality (death) due to
exposure of personnel to lethal
concentration of hazardous gas or vapour Side-view of Toxic Dispersion

against the downwind distance from the source of leak.

• Concentration Vs. Distance: This is the simplest type of representation which shows the change in concentration
of the gas against the downwind distance at an elevation from ground level. The primary difference between
‘Footprint’ and this type of graph is that ‘Footprint’ is a Top-View of the release at certain elevation while this
type of ‘concentration Vs. distance graph’ is a Concentration profile.

Applications of Dispersion Modelling

The dispersion modelling can be used by operators for a number of applications. The important applications are;
• Assessing compliance of emissions with air quality guidelines, criteria and standards.
• Establishing the siting and planning for new installations or facilities.
• Determination of safer locations for vents, relief valves and flare stacks, away from critical receptors.
• Assessing the risk of and planning of management of rare events such as incidents of hazardous releases.
• Savings of costs and time, over monitoring.

©2021 Sigma-HSE (India) Pvt Ltd Page 3 of 4 Tel: +91 (0)11 4356 5446
 Serving Clients Globally from our Offices in Europe, Asia and the Middle East

References:
➢ EPA Guideline for Fluid Modelling of Atmospheric Diffusion, EPA-600/8-81-009, US EPA
➢ NIWA, 1998, Guidelines for the use of dispersion models, NIWA Report No. AK96120.
➢ TNO, Methods for calculation of physical effects, ‘Yellow Book’, PGS 2 (CPR 14E) – Part 1, 2005

Benefits of Working with Sigma-HSE Services

The service offered by our experienced team at Sigma-HSE, is much more than a standalone test result.

• Over 100 years of combined laboratory testing and consultancy experience to ensure that our accurate and
appropriate integrated consulting services are provided.
• Dedicated after-sales support services to help the client with ease in implementation of results for safer process.
A brief about our integrated consulting solution set is provided below. With rich experience of helping client with their
health, safety and environment needs, Sigma HSE proves itself as ideal consultant for related engineering services and
solutions.

Specialist Safety Technical Training

• Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) • Bespoke in-house training covering:
• Hazards & Operability Study (HAZOP) o Dust Explosion Hazards
• Process Hazard Assessment (PHA) o Fire & Explosion Hazards
• Hazard Identification Study (HAZID) o Electrostatic Hazards
• Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) o Establishing a Basis of Safety
o ATEX / DSEAR
Functional Safety o Hazardous Area Classification (HAC)
• Safety Instrumented Systems o Process Safety in your Plant
• Safety Integrity Level (SIL) o Identifying Process Hazards
Health & Safety o COMAH / Seveso III
o HAZOP
• Occupational Safety o LOPA / QRA
• Control of Substances Hazardous to Health o Incident / Near Miss Investigation
(COSHH)
• Provision and Use of Work Equipment Regulation
(PUWER)
Specialist Services
• Expert Audit Support
• Expert Witness
• Incident Investigation

For further information on how Sigma-HSE can solve

your process safety issues and become an active
partner in safety, call our Client Support Team on
+91 (0)11 4356 5446 or email your enquiry to safety-
[email protected]. A full list of services including
specialist Environmental contamination testing for soil,
groundwater, leachate and industrial wastewater/
effluence can be found on our website at www.sigma-
hse.co.in

Contact Details
Sigma-HSE (India) Pvt Ltd, Office 1008-09, Mercantile House, KG Marg, Connaught Place, New Delhi 110 001, INDIA
Tel: +91 (0)11 4356 5446, Email: [email protected], Web: www.sigma-hse.co.in

©2021 Sigma-HSE (India) Pvt Ltd Page 4 of 4 Tel: +91 (0)11 4356 5446