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Forecasting Lecture Canvas

The document contains 3 problems involving time series forecasting techniques: 1) 3-month moving average, 2) exponential smoothing with alpha=0.1, and 3) time series regression. For each problem, forecasts are provided along with measures of accuracy - MAD, MSE, MAPE. The third problem also provides the slope, intercept, and formula for the time series regression line to forecast July.

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Jane Dizon
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32 views4 pages

Forecasting Lecture Canvas

The document contains 3 problems involving time series forecasting techniques: 1) 3-month moving average, 2) exponential smoothing with alpha=0.1, and 3) time series regression. For each problem, forecasts are provided along with measures of accuracy - MAD, MSE, MAPE. The third problem also provides the slope, intercept, and formula for the time series regression line to forecast July.

Uploaded by

Jane Dizon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problem 1.

Perform a 3-month moving average, compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE


Period Actual D Forecast Abs. Error Error^2 (Abs E./Actual D)*100
Jan 300
Feb 356
March 387
April 381 347.67 33.33 1111.11 8.75 %
May 347 374.67 27.67 765.44 7.97
June 352 371.67 19.67 386.91 5.59
July 360.00

MAD 26.89
MSE 754.49
MAPE 7.44

Given weights of 0.40 (most recent), 0.20, 0.20, and 0.20


consequently for the preceeding periods, what is the
forecast for July using weighted moving average? 363.80

Problem 2. Perform exponential smoothing technique with alpha = 0.10, and compute for MAD, MSE, and MAPE
Period Actual D Fore Abs. E E^2 PE
Jan 300
Feb 356 300.00 56.00 3136.00 15.73
March 387 305.60 81.40 6625.96 21.03
April 381 313.74 67.26 4523.91 17.65
May 347 320.47 26.53 704.05 7.65
June 352 323.12 28.88 834.05 8.20
July

MAD 52.01
MSE 3164.80
MAPE 14.05

Problem 3. Perform time series regression. Compute also the measures of accuracy.
Period x Actual D (y) xy x^2 forecast abs error sq error
Jan 1 300 300.00 1.00 337.61 37.61 1414.51
Feb 2 356 712.00 4.00 344.10 11.90 141.61
March 3 387 1161.00 9.00 350.59 36.41 1325.69
April 4 381 1524.00 16.00 357.08 23.92 572.17
May 5 347 1735.00 25.00 363.57 16.57 274.56
June 6 352 2112.00 36.00 370.06 18.06 326.16
July 7 49.00 376.55
total 28 2123 7544.00 140.00
MAD 24.08
MSE 675.78
MAPE
slope 6.49
intercept 331.12
y = a + bx y=331.12+6.49x
slope (b)= (n*total xy)-(total x * total y)/ (n*total x square)-total x^2) (6*7544)-(21*2123)/(6*91)-21^2
intercept (a)= (total y -(slope* total x))/n 2123-(6.49*21)/6

feb 1
mar 2
apr 3
may 4
jun 5
jul 6
aug 7
sep 8
SE, and MAPE

pe
12.54
3.34
9.41
6.28
4.78
5.13

6.91
1*2123)/(6*91)-21^2

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