ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

ON FOOD SECURITY IN WEST POKOT COUNTY, KENYA

BY

EVERLYNE BINYANYA OBWOCHA (B. Env Sc)

N50/20581/2010

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE

REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE IN THE SCHOOL OF ENVIRONMENTAL
STUDIES OF KENYATTA UNIVERSITY

SEPTEMBER 2015
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DECLARATION

This thesis is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other
university or any other award.

Signature…………………………….. Date……………………………
Everlyne Binyanya Obwocha (N50/20581/2010)
Department of Environmental Science

SUPERVISORS
We confirm that the candidate carried out the work reported in this thesis under our
supervision.

Signature…………………………….. Date……………………………
Dr. Paul Obade
Department of Environmental Science
Kenyatta University

Signature…………………………….. Date……………………………
Dr. James Koske
Department of Environmental Education
Kenyatta University
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DEDICATION

I dedicate this thesis to my parents, brother Philip and my husband Isaiah.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am greatly indebted to my supervisors Dr. Obade and Dr. Koske for their honest
guidance and constructive criticism during the course of this research work. They have
left an indelible impression on my mind which will continue to influence my work in
future.

I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to the Dean of the School of

Environmental Studies, Prof. Kung’u and Prof. Ramisch of the University of Ottawa,
Canada, for their material support towards fieldwork, their valuable discussions and
constructive suggestions towards the completion of this thesis.

I also thank West Pokot District, Ministry of Agriculture staff especially the Extension
Officers for their support especially during collecting field data. The water resource
management authority (WRMA) and Kerio Valley Development Authority (KVDA)
officers are also appreciated for helping in looking after the climate data loggers.

I also extend my sincere appreciation to all West Pokot farmers who were my
respondents for taking their time and cooperating in giving out information needed for
this thesis.

Finally, I wish to register my heartfelt thanks to God for giving me life and good
health throughout my studies and my parents for praying for my success daily. I really
appreciate their patience, understanding, moral and financial support given to me in
preparation and completion of this thesis.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION ................................................................................................................. i
DEDICATION .................................................................................................................... ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................... iv
LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... vii
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................... x
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 1
1.0 Background of the Problem ...................................................................................... 1
1.1 Problem statement ..................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Research questions .................................................................................................... 5
1.3 Research objectives ................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Justification ............................................................................................................... 6
1.5 Conceptual and theoretical framework ..................................................................... 7
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................. 10
2.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 10
2.1 Climate variability in Kenya ................................................................................... 10
2.2 Impacts of climate variability on crop production .................................................. 12
2.3 Local perceptions on impacts of climate variability on food security .................... 14
2.4 Need for phenological studies in climate variability research ................................ 15
2.5 Phenological Methods of studying climate variability in crop growth cycles ........ 16
2.5.1 Tools for climate and variability prediction .................................................... 18
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ........................................................................ 19
3.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 19
3.1 Study Area............................................................................................................... 19
3.2 Study design ............................................................................................................ 21
3.3 Sampling procedures ............................................................................................... 22
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3.4 Instruments .............................................................................................................. 23

3.5 Data collection procedure ....................................................................................... 23
3.5.1 Primary sources of data ................................................................................... 23
3.5.2 Secondary sources of data ............................................................................... 24
3.5.3 Remote Sensing Data ....................................................................................... 24
3.5.4 Vegetation Index- Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) ............. 30
3.6 Data analysis ........................................................................................................... 30
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ..................................................... 31
4.1 Application of remote sensing and Geographic Information System technology
on spatial variability in relation to climate variation in the county............................... 31
4.2 To characterize annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature from 1980 -2011
in West Pokot county .................................................................................................... 41
4.2.0 Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature....................................................... 41
4.2.1 Rainfall analysis ............................................................................................ 42
4.2.2 Temperature analysis .................................................................................... 44
4.3 The phenology of agricultural vegetation in the West Pokot County ..................... 46
4.4 Perception of the household on the relationship between food insecurity and
climate change in the area ............................................................................................. 59
4.4.1: Respondents views on climate variability occurrence from 1980-2012 ......... 59
4.4.2: Effect of climate variability on crop production ............................................. 60
4.4.3: Change in crop growing seasons .................................................................... 62
4.4.4: Views on changes in crop yield over the years .............................................. 64
4.4.5: Weather forecast information access by the respondents ............................... 66
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS .............................. 69
5.1 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 69
5.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................... 70
5.2.1 Recommendations for further research ............................................................ 71
REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 72
APPENDICES .................................................................................................................. 88
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Apendix 1: Field questionnaire ..................................................................................... 88

Apendix 2: Photos of selected areas in West Pokot County ......................................... 92
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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Conceptual framework .................................................................................. 9

Figure 3.1: Map of West Pokot County ........................................................................ 20
Figure 3.2: Landsat TM 1984 ....................................................................................... 26
Figure 3.3: Landsat TM 1990 ....................................................................................... 27
Figure 3.4: Landsat ETM+ 2000 ................................................................................... 28
Figure 3.5: Landsat ETM+ 2010 ................................................................................... 29
Figure 4.1: Land use 1984............................................................................................ 32
Figure 4.2: Land use 1990............................................................................................ 33
Figure 4.3: Land use 2000............................................................................................ 34
Figure 4.4: Land use 2010............................................................................................ 35
Figure 4.5: Land use – cropland................................................................................... 37
Figure 4.6: Land use – forestland................................................................................. 38
Figure 4.7: Land use – grassland ................................................................................. 39
Figure 4.8: Land use – wetlands .................................................................................. 40
Figure 4.9: Land use – settlements............................................................................... 41
Figure 4.10: Annual rainfall trend from 1980 to 2011 in WPC .................................... 42
Figure 4.11: Average daily temperature per annum in WPC lowlands ........................ 45
Figure 4.12: Average daily temperature per annum in WPC highlands ....................... 46
Figure 4.13: NDVI image for 2000 ............................................................................... 47
Figure 4.14: NDVI image for 2005 ............................................................................... 48
Figure 4.15: NDVI image for 2010 ............................................................................... 49
Figure 4.16: NDVI image for 2012 ............................................................................... 50
Figure 4.17: NDVI values and Rainfall data for 2000-2010......................................... 52
Figure 4.18: Monthly NDVI values trend for years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2010 ......... 56
Figure 4.19: Mean NDVI values trend.......................................................................... 57
Figure 4.20: Extent of climate change effect on food production................................. 62
Figure 4.21: Changes in crop growing seasons in the study area ................................. 62
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Figure 4.22: changes in crop yield over the years in the study area ............................. 65
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LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1: Acquisition date of Landsat images ............................................................. 25

Table 4.1: Land use types in West Pokot County and the corresponding Area in Ha .. 36
Table 4.2: NDVI vs. Mean Rainfall .............................................................................. 58
Table 4.3: Access to weather forecast information ....................................................... 67
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AEZ – Agro Ecological Zone

CC – Climate Change
CV – Climate Variability
EOS – End of Season
FAO –Food and Agricultural Organization
FEWS –Famine Early Warning Systems
GPS – Global Positioning Systems
HH – House Hold
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
LULC – Land use land cover
KARI-Kenya Agricultural Research Institute
KVDA – Kerio Valley Development Authority
MOA – Ministry of Agriculture
MOH –Ministry of Health
NDVI – Normalized Differential Vegetation Index
SOS – Start of season
UNICEF – United Nations Children’s Fund
WMO- World Meteorological Organisation
WPC – West Pokot County
WRMA – Water Resource Management Authority
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ABSTRACT

There is an increasing need for food security assessment in the wake of today’s
challenge of climate change and variability. This study aimed at assessing the impacts
climate change and variability on food security in West Pokot County for the period
1980-2012. Objectives of the study were to: characterize rainfall and temperature data
for the specified years, evaluate spatial variability in relation to climate change and
variability in the county using remote sensing and Geographic Information System
(GIS), study the phenology of agricultural vegetation of the area and assess the
perception of the household on the relationship between climate variability and food
insecurity across three agro-ecological zones in West Pokot County. Household
survey, key informant interviews, analyzing rainfall and temperature data and GIS
methodologies were adopted. Questionnaires were administered to 124 randomly
selected households. LANDSAT and SPOT images were satellite images selected due
to their high spatial resolution. The result revealed high inter-annual rainfall
variability. The mean rainfall was 973.4 mm p.a. for the years 1980-2011. Years 1984
and 2000 experienced the lowest precipitation of 631.6 mm and 619 mm respectively.
Lowlands’ temperatures have increased by 1.25°C and the highlands by 1.29°C
respectively over the study period. Majority of respondents strongly believe (68%)
that climate variability has occurred in the area with the lowland experiencing a great
effect on crop production (75%) followed by the mid potential zone (27%) and finally
the highlands (14%). Land cover land use changes showed that cropland has increased
by 68% while grassland has reduced by 6%. The mean Normalized Differential
Vegetation Index (NDVI) values ranged from 0.36-0.54. There has been a consistent
increase in vegetation greenness in the three agroecological zones for the period 2000-
2011. The year 2000 was the lowest in greenness and the peak was in 2011 followed
by a decrease in 2012 due to the respective decrease in rainfall. The NDVI time series
result show on average low values from January to February (0.36) and then
afterwards increases and reaches a peak in June (0.54) before it starts decreasing up to
September. April and August are the peak rainfall months in the study locations, May
and September are the peak NDVI months. Thus, after rainfall onset, there is a one
month lag period for NDVI to reach its peak. In the analysis of variance to show the
relationship between rainfall and NDVI value when p<0.05 is significant, results
showed that changes in NDVI values are not brought about by rainfall only as
indicated by the resulting P=0.219. The study recommends integration of indigenous
households’ perceptions of climate variability and change with scientific
meteorological data on rainfall and temperature trends for better planning and
targeting of interventions. It also calls for better adaptation interventions rather that
increase in cropland area. Further, it encourages the use of GIS and remote sensing
incorporated with survey methods to enable understand events that are inaccessible,
yet significant in regards to food security for informed decisions and early warning
purposes.
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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.0 Background of the Problem

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

stated that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and
climate variability (IPCC, 2007). Among the climate parameters that have exhibited a
shift in both short and long-term trends are rainfall and temperatures (Opole, 2013).
Previous assessments (IPCC, 1998; Hulme, 1996) concluded that over dependence on
rain-fed agriculture and unpredictable temperatures are among the contributing factors
to food insecurity. Already, in the Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change has drastically
reduced agricultural production through extreme weather events, such as recurrent
droughts and floods (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008; Deressa et al., 2008). Elsewhere,
in Kenya, frequent droughts and floods have not only claimed lives but have also
decimated livestock and reduced farm output (GOK, 2007; USAID, 2007).

Climate variability (CV) means deviations in the mean state of climate statistics and
inconsistencies (e.g., temperature and precipitation extremes), on all temporal and
spatial scales beyond those of individual weather events, including short-term
fluctuations that happen from year to year (Ziervogel, et al., 2006). Food security on
the other hand refers to access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets
peoples’ dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (World Food
Summit, 1996). According to the World Food Summit, food security reinforces the
multidimensional nature of food security and includes food access, availability, food
use and stability. Food security exists when all people at all times have physical or
economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 1996). Variability in climate
decreases crop yields (Lobell and Field, 2007). Olesen and Bindi (2002) noted that the
factors of radiation, temperature and rainfall all affect yield to some degree with
rainfall, especially affecting the growth and production of the plant (Cantelaub and
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Terres, 2004). Variability in rainfall from year to year is closely intertwined with crop
yields (Lobell and Field, 2007).

Increasing climate variability is something the world cannot avoid to ignore.

Specifically, in Kenya there is a strong sense that more should be done to make the
Kenyan society better prepared for future climate variability incidences. The reported
0.7–2.0°C increase in temperature during the last 40 years in Kenya, together with
irregular and unpredictable rainfall, has increased water-scarcity problems, alongside
degradation of catchment areas and lakes (Mutimba et al., 2010). The growth rates in
crop yields have been significantly declining and the ongoing climate change is
forecasted to reduce crop yields even further in many parts of the world (Braun, 2007;
Pingali, 2012) thus affecting food security.

West Pokot County is one of the food deficient and food insecure Counties in Kenya
(GOK, 2007). The increasingly arid conditions in the county are generally viewed as
impact of climate variability. The county is situated where extremes of climate
variation such as drought and unpredictable rainfall patterns, coupled with famine and
related humanitarian disasters, are being experienced.

Moreover, WPC has a diversity of agro-ecozones, all affected differently by climate

variability impacts. The vast majority of Kenyan climate change research has focused
on the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in general, where rainfall is “always” a
constraint on productivity and pastoralism (Jones et al., 2009). In contrast, the medium
and high potential agro-ecozones also targeted by this study support the bulk of the
Kenyan population. These zones are also subject to climatic changes that means
agricultural production can be constrained by water scarcity, soil fertility, or flooding
even over small temporal and spatial scales (Notter, 2007).

Given an existing context of substantial variability and uncertainty in most Kenyan

production systems (e.g. of rainfall, temperature, crop-soil systems and markets), it is
important to deepen the understanding of how longer term trends of climate variability
 3

are understood and portrayed in local knowledge (Roncoli, 2006). This study focused
on local perceptions on CV in three AEZs with regard to food security. The study also
provides trends in rainfall and temperature variability. Phenology studies for plant
growth observation gave an understanding of climate variability and growth periods of
the predominant crops grown in WPC i.e. maize, beans, cabbage and carrots.

The objective of this study was designed to assess the impacts of climate change and
variability on food security in West Pokot County, Kenya. The study analysed rainfall
and temperature trends spanning the period between 1980-2012 and evaluated spatial
variability in relation to climate variation in the county using remote sensing and
Geographic Information System techniques for the years 1984, 1990, 2000 and 2010.
It also studied the phenology of agricultural vegetation in the area for the years 2000-
2012 as well as assessed the perception of the household on the relationship between
food insecurity and climate variability in the area.

1.1 Problem statement

Recent research has focused on regional and national assessments of the potential
effects of climate change on agriculture (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008). In addition,
most of the scientific literature and discourses on vulnerability has concentrated on
contributing to theoretical insights or analysis at a regional or national scale, with
findings for each region, which have implication more for system wide planning
(Hinkel, 2011). These efforts have treated each region or nation in general without
relating to changes in food production in other specific local places (ODI, 2007).
While there is no superior scale of climate vulnerability analysis, recent studies by
Yuga et al. (2010) and Marshall et al. (2014) have confirmed that micro-level analyses
have been largely overlooked in favour of ecosystem-scale studies of biophysical
vulnerability. In fact, an understanding of vulnerability to climate variability and
change and food security is needed at the level that would specifically address specific
geographic location so that the communities will get adequate lessons to tackle climate
 4

change challenges with the precision that is necessary (Klein, 2004). To address this
evident gap, this research in West Pokot County coordinated effort needed in research
to provide for continent-wide climate monitoring including the specific local places.

A weakness identified in previous research in climate change in Africa (and Kenya

specifically) however is that, despite the complexity of likely transformations and
outcomes of climate variability, there is lack of validation of local knowledge and
perceptions (SPORE, 2008 and BNRCC, 2008) or local perceptions are noted only in
terms of ‘’awareness’’ of climate change (Gbetibouo, 2009). However, it is
acknowledged that policy interventions to support local communities dealing with
large or unknown climate change risks must engage rural peoples’ varied and context-
specific attitudes towards the relationship between climate variability and food
insecurity in order to come up with best ways to manage the risks (Doss et al., 2008).
Accordingly, there is the need to gain as much information as possible, and learn the
positions of rural farmers, their perceptions on climate variability and food security
and their needs, about what they know about climate variability, in order to offer
adaptation practices that meet these needs in future. This current research attempted to
fill some of the gaps with a nuanced understanding of the relationship between climate
variability and food insecurity, emerging directly from the knowledge and experience
of WPC community.

An important premise behind this study is that, while we are not yet in a position to
focus on how climate may change (either on the short or on long term) we can
estimate the potential consequences of each of a number of possible climate changes.
By considering the range of impacts on food security in WPC we can improve both on
our techniques of impact analysis and armory of potential responses. Thus at some
point in future, when we are able to make reasonably accurate forecast of climate
change, we shall also have acquired an ability both to assess their impact and to
respond effectively to them. Coe (2011) states that, the starting point for
understanding the effect of future climate variables needs understanding of the current
 5

situation. The above author emphasizes that we have the tools. Hence, more effort is
needed to make the data available, build climate analysis into every agricultural
project and bring relevant and accurate climate information to farmers.

1.2 Research questions

The research questions that formed the basis of this study were:

1. What is the spatial variability in relation to climate change and variability in

West Pokot County?
2. How has temperature and rainfall been changing in West Pokot County
between 1980 -2012?
3. What is the phenology of agricultural vegetation in West Pokot County?
4. Do households associate food insecurity with climate variability?

1.3 Research objectives

The main objective of the study was:

1. To assess the effects of impacts of climate change and variability (temperature
and rainfall) on food security with focus on agricultural vegetation

Specific objectives

The subsidiary objectives that contribute to this main objective were:

1. To evaluate spatial variability in relation to climate variation in the county
using remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques
2. To characterize annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature from 1980 -2012
in West Pokot County
3. To study the phenology of agricultural vegetation in the area
4. To assess the perception of the household on the relationship between food
insecurity and climate variability in the area
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1.4 Justification

The ongoing debates on climate change and food security by the scientific community
importantly gives rainfall and temperature variability and reliability a considerable
attention at different scales. Climate projections suggest that variability is likely to
increase in the future and extreme weather events might become more frequent in sub-
Saharan Africa (IPCC, 2012; Omondi et al., 2013). However, the effects, risks and
uncertainty with the science around the subject of climate change and projections are
daunting, challenging and complex to understand at different levels (Omondi, 2014).
This justifies that the subject of climate change and variability is one of the most
controversial in the entire science of meteorology and climatology at present
(Kalumba et al., 2013).

Understanding dimensions of monthly, annual, seasonal rainfall and temperature is an

important part of research studies helping to clarify climate change discourses and its
effects on the natural behaviour of ecosystems and arid systems (Omondi, 2014) as
well as effects on food security. There is also noted paucity of information on the
responses of vegetation to precipitation anomalies, especially for non-equilibrium
rangelands of Kenya (Omondi, 2014). An improved understanding of vegetation
sensitivity to precipitation anomalies and corresponding temporal reaction patterns at a
more local scale is therefore critical for these arid and semi-arid ecosystems. In the
recent years, time-series studies of rainfall and temperature patterns and environments
have been carried out at various spatial (e.g. regional, national) scales using various
statistical procedures (Wagesho et al., 2013). Yet, very few have considered rainfall
and temperature data as climate parameters in their analysis using GIS and remote
sensing to analyse trends at spatial and temporal scales and the resultant impacts on
food security.

There are few detailed work on rainfall and temperature trends using observed climate
records in the ASALS of Kenya (Omondi, 2014). Hitherto, limited scientific studies
 7

have focused on spatial and temporal analysis of climatic parameters at micro-scale in

the arid and semi-arid environment of West Pokot. Yet, this region in the recent past
has experienced extreme weather events and micro climatic variability reported to
have had huge influence on ecosystem dynamics and human welfare especially in
these environments (Herrero et al., 2010). Understanding climate trends and
magnitude is critical to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and variability,
and would guide communities to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their
future well-being. Therefore by studying the trends and changes in the rainfall and
temperature with a simple yet direct approach, the results hope to show how
policymakers and the communities can better prepare for natural extremes and reduce
the loss of life and property.

1.5 Conceptual and theoretical framework

The conceptual model presented below (Figure 1.1) depicts the linkage between
climatic variability with food security. Climate change and variability is highly
notable through changes in normal rainfall trends and temperature variations (Olmos,
2001). Predictions are that more powerful and more frequent droughts and storms will
wreak greater devastation. Rising sea levels will ruin fertile farmland. Changing
rainfall patterns will deplete harvests (Tyler et al., 2013).

Hitherto, the major impacts of climate variability on agricultural production are noted
to come from changes in temperature and rainfall (Msughter and Ujoh, 2013). The
result of crop failure often leads not only to loss of income but also food insecurity.
The nature of mankind is to fight for survival so if crops fail to give them enough to
eat, they always find other means as alternatives to secure food. These alternatives are
called adaptation and coping strategies for food security. Moreover, internalizing past
experiences, avoiding repeated failures and innovating to improve performance are all
important characteristics of agents that foster resilient systems (Tyler and Moench,
2012).
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The widely accepted World Food Summit (1996) definition reinforces the
multidimensional nature of food security and includes food access, availability and
food use. Specifically, another determinant labeled food stability was put forward as
contributing to food security (FAO, 2011; Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007),
accounting for both short and long-term fluctuations in food supply. For example, this
factor would describe the impacts of extreme weather events influencing production,
or changes in food production during the growing season, food storage, fluctuating
farm revenues and food prices during the non-growing season (Tyler et al., 2013).

Recently, more emphasis has been placed on the spatial and temporal aspects of food
security. Notwithstanding, WFP uses Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and
innovative satellite applications and to collect manage and analyse data (WFP, 2014).
For example, by analysing trends in rainfall patterns and regeneration of vegetation
cover, potential bio-physical threats to food security can be identified and monitored
over time. Moreover, WFP uses GIS to combine survey data with geographical
information to identify the root causes of food insecurity and vulnerability.

GIS is mentioned as one of a preferred monitoring tool using land cover land use
scenarios as well as NDVI to study past and current vegetation growth and health.
According to Nayak et al. (2001), NDVI provides an opportunity to study vegetation
changes overtime. Changing land cover on the other hand alters the sensible and latent
heat fluxes that exist within and between the earths’s surface and boundary layers thus
influencing land surface-atmosphere interactions, (Yang, 2004). As such, changes in
land cover and land use are bound to influence meteorological parameters including
precipitation, humidity and temperature and hence affect the Land surface, its
properties and activities occurring on it.
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Adaptation responses to climate change and climate variability

Climate variables Extreme climatic Food aspects

Temperature events affected
variation  Droughts  Food
Rainfall variation  Floods accessibility
 Food availability
 Food stability

Extreme climate States and Monitoring

events impacts trend changes aspects
– Land use/land aspects – NDVI
cover changes – Wetland change
– Vegetation – Cropland monitoring
dynamics – Forestland – Survey
– Food insecurity – Grassland – Land
use/Land
cover
analysis

Figure 1.1 Conceptual framework showing the relationships between variables in

the study
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CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0 Introduction

Over 80% of the Kenya landmass falls under arid and semi-arid climate where
droughts and floods are the main characteristics (Huho et al., 2010). This makes
Kenya prone to climate vagaries. Evidence of climate variation has become more
pronounced and characterized by alternating cycles of droughts and floods. This
chapter presents a critique of different scholars on climate variability with regard to
food security. It shows the gaps the study intends to fill and how its findings forms an
important contribution to climate change adaptations, GIS technology use and
development issues.

2.1 Climate variability in Kenya

Climate variability is increasingly emerging as one of the most serious global

problems affecting many sectors in the world and is considered to be one of the most
serious threats to sustainable development with adverse impact on environment, food
security, human health, economic activities, natural resources and physical
infrastructure (Huq et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007) Based on many studies covering a wide
range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have
been more common than positive impacts (IPCC, 2014). Africa is identified as one of
the most vulnerable regions to climate variability in the world where Kenya is
inclusive and ninety eight percent of the agricultural activities in Kenya are rain-fed
(UNEP, 2009). As the backbone of Kenya’s economy, agriculture is very vulnerable to
increasing temperatures, droughts and floods, which reduce crop productivity.

In Kenya, droughts and floods are not new phenomena. Their characteristics, intensity,
duration and spatial extent vary from one event to the other. The frequency of
occurrence and severity of floods and droughts have been increasing over time. For
instance, the frequency of drought increased from once in every 10 years in 1970s, to
 11

once in every 5 years in 1980s, once in every 2-3 years in 1990s and yearly since 2000
(Howden, 2009). The alternating cycles of droughts and floods do not only destroy the
livelihood sources but also severely undermine the resilience of the people living in
the affected areas (KRCS, 2012). In some arid and semi-arid counties, pastoralists
have lost more than half of their livestock to droughts in the past ten years with over
60% of the inhabitants living below the poverty line (Grünewald et al., 2006). Today,
famine relief due to climate extremes is a regular feature in some parts of the arid and
semi-arid counties such as West Pokot.

Climate variability is also noticeable in WPC whereby increase in the frequency of

prolonged droughts, increase in the cases of landslides during flood events, changes in
river regimes including river courses, e.g. River Suam in Kongelai and Kacheliba had
changed its course, changes in temperature, e.g. Lelan’s average temperatures have
increased (GOK, 2012). The action plan report also noted reduction of water levels in
rivers, e.g. River Weiwei, pasture reduction, floods and siltation of rivers, e.g., River
Sigor and R. Sebit, loss of soil to gully and wind erosion and increase in forest fires.
The report noticed that the identified impacts have already affected food production
leading to increased food insecurity, poverty and even loss of human life as farming is
the main source of livelihoods in the county.

Scientific findings show a growing consensus that the world has to grapple with
increasingly severe climatic events. Some of the manifestations of climate change are
rising average temperatures with the last three decades having got successively
warmer (Arndt et al., 2010), increasing sea levels which have been rising at an average
1.8 mm/year between 1961 and 1992 and about 3.1 mm/year since 1993 (IPCC, 2007)
and the thinning snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. In Kenya, studies indicate
that temperatures have generally risen throughout the country, primarily near the large
water bodies (King’uyu et al., 2000; GoK, 2010). Other projections also indicate
increases in mean annual temperature of 1 to 3.5oC by the 2050s (SEI, 2009). This has
the potential to inundate agricultural lands and cause food insecurity.
 12

Generally, Kenya’s climate is also expected to warm across all seasons during this
century. Under a medium emission scenario, the annual mean surface air temperatures
are expected to increase between 3°C and 4°C by 2099, which means it will rise at a
rate of 1.5 that of the global average (Boko et al., 2007). The country’s arid and semi-
arid lands (ASALs) have already witnessed a reduction in extreme cold temperature
occurrences (Kilavi, 2008). This warming has lead to the depletion of glaciers on
Mount Kenya (IPCC, 2007; UNEP, 2009). In addition, the rising temperature levels
will inevitably lead to higher rates of evapotranspiration, further reducing the impact
of rainfall on soil water for crop growth (Boko et al., 2007). As predicted by Boko et
al. (2007) this temperature increases are also expected to lead to overall increase in
annual rainfall of around 7% over the same period, although this change will not be
experienced uniformly across the region or throughout the year. Seasonal rainfall
trends are already mentioned to be mixed, with some locations indicating increasing
trends while others showing decreases. Moreover, the expected increase in the
variability of rainfall and the increase in temperatures are likely to increase the
intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the region, meaning that many
areas in East Africa will be faced with an increased risk of longer dry spells and
heavier storms with a direct effect to food security.

It is therefore worth mentioning that climatic seasonality and unpredictability causes

fluctuations in crop production and contributes to food insecurity. This calls for
predictability and vulnerability studies on climate variations to reduce on food
fluctuations probabilities especially in the three AEZ of West Pokot through outlining
the current and past weather occurrences of the area as per the years specified for early
warning purposes

2.2 Impacts of climate variability on crop production

Food especially food crops is a fundamental requirement in our everyday life. The
well-being of large populations around the world depends on access, stability and
 13

availability of food (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). This is especially true in the
developing world with predominant small land holders and subsistence farmers for
whom the on-farm agriculture and off-farm agricultural labor provides the main source
of food and income (Ito and Kurosaki, 2009). Besides, the vulnerability of these
smallholder and subsistence farmers is greatly influenced by changes in climate
(Morton, 2007). Changes in climate have already decreased crop yields in several
regions and are estimated to have reduced global maize production by 12 Mt a year
between 1981 and 2002 (Lobell and Field, 2007). For example, in 2003, unusually
high temperatures during the summer reduced food production (and killed over 50,000
people in Europe), with cereal and fruit harvests dropping drastically in Europe,
especially in Italy and France where maize production fell by more than 30% (Ciais et
al., 2005; Battisti and Naylor, 2009).

Generally, the scientific evidence on rainfall variability with its significant impacts on
crop yield is now stronger than ever (Hare, 1985; WMO, 2000; IPCC, 2001, 2004;
Adejuwon and Odekunle, 2006). One undisputable causes of 'famine' in WPC is the
failure of crops resulting from insufficient or untimely rainfall and increasing
temperatures. A Nigerian slogan that “rainfall is the husband of maize yield” is worth
mentioning at this time. It notifies that rainfall supply is all needed resource for maize
yield. As the prime water source, rainfall is considered to be a critical factor that
regulates ecosystem production (Tal and Arnon, 2010). The year to year variability of
rainfall is a significant constraint to the sustainability of rain-fed farming systems in
poorer countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Unganai, 2000). Crop simulation
models have shown the negative impacts of climate variability on crop growth,
especially if it happens at specific crop development stages (Semanov and Porter,
1995). Extreme daily temperatures above a certain threshold may also have damaging
consequences on crop yields (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010; Welch et al., 2010).
 14

2.3 Local perceptions on impacts of climate variability on food security

One’s perception depends on one’s environment and its characteristics (Heathcote,

1969). It is in this notion that Weber (2010) believes that most farmers’ knowledge
and exposure to climate change has been influenced indirectly by the media from
events occurring in distant areas, e.g., the melting of ice sheets in the Antarctica rather
than local events. Slegers (2008) also indicated that experience is an important factor
that shapes individuals’ perceptions, in terms of seasonality, with previous experiences
of poor seasons bringing in memories and being responsible for how farmers may tend
to describe different season types and be able to relate with food security. Perception
has been described as referring to a range of judgments and attitudes (Slegers, 2008).
Bryant et al. (2008) suggests that the farmers’ perceptions on climate change and
variability are important in adaptation as they determine decisions in agricultural
planning and management by the farmers. As well, documenting how farmers’ frame
the conditions they experience is crucial for understanding their responses to said
conditions (Roncoli, 2006; Tschakert, 2007) especially for different land potential
capacities.

In the climate variability literature, traditional ecological knowledge (Berkes et al.,

2000; Folke, 2004), local knowledge and local ecological knowledge (Olsson et al.,
2004) are used to refer to the cumulative body of knowledge, practice and belief, that
are location- specific, acquired through long-term observation of (and interaction
with) the environment, and transferred through oral traditions from generation to
generation. Based on the available literature, this current study used local knowledge
to mean a cumulative body of knowledge on weather and climate variability and its’
effect on food security in the area (Huho and Kosonei, 2010).

The validity of local knowledge has been shown by scientists through comparison
with quantitative climate data analysis (Cabrera et al., 2006). The majority of studies
show that farmers’ resourcefulness matches quantitative data analysis: local
 15

knowledge is used to respond to the vagaries of climate such as droughts, famines,

floods and other stresses that threaten crops and livestock (Newsham and Thomas,
2011). However, there have also been cases where local knowledge failed to match
quantitative climate data, making local knowledge seem unreliable, e.g., as reported
from Kenya by Rao et al. (2011). This study will build on other authors who have
cross-checked local knowledge with quantitative climate data to ascertain its relevance
for climate variability. The study also provided evidence of farmer’s perceptions
matching with the existing quantitative historical climate data of the county for the
past 30 years (1980-2012).

2.4 Need for phenological studies in climate variability research

Phenology is the science of studying life-cycle events of plants and animals, and their
responses to seasonal and inter-annual variation in climate (Morisette et al., 2008).
Importantly, the word phenology as derived from Greek means to show, to bring, to
light, and make to appear, meaning that this subject mainly focuses on the significant
timing of biological events in their annual cycle. Land Surface Phenology (LSP) uses
Remotely Sensed (RS) images to track the growth stages of green vegetation
(emergence, growth, maturity, and harvest) at both local and global scale (Anyamba
and Tucker, 2005).

More than five methods of observing LSP have been developed and widely used: 1)
phenological observation networks; 2) phenological modeling; 3) eddy covariance flux
towers; 4) global change experiments; and 5) using remotely sensed images (White et
al., 2009). Because the timing and events of plant life cycle were obtained from field
data, early phenological studies deeply relied on plant observation networks (Hopp,
1974). The current study was interested in using phenology as a means to detect
changes in growth cycle of dominantly grown crops in WPC. Arguably, LSP could
change because of changing climate, leading to phenomena such as the earlier onset of
spring (Myneni et al., 1997; Zhou et al., 2003) or earlier senescence. However, LSP
 16

could also change as a result of shifts in land cover proportions or alterations in land
use practices. In this case, land cover/ land use changes occurs on many different
spatial and temporal scales and also in multiple forms ranging from alterations in crop
type to changes in land use category, for example, from cultivated to residential.

The success of phenology at large scale is attributed to the development of remote

sensing technology (Goward, 1989). Moulin et al. (1997) compared the traditional
method of phenological research (using ground observation records) with new
technology (capturing vegetative signals from RS images), and concluded that
collecting data from RS technology is more efficient and effective than measuring data
on the ground. However for improved accuracy, the two need to complement each
other.

2.5 Phenological Methods of studying climate variability in crop growth cycles

The Start of Season and End of Season (SOS/EOS) can be defined as rapid sustained
increase/decrease in remotely-sensed greenness after/before the longest annual period
of photosynthetic senescence (White et al., 2009). In reality, these measures are
thought to represent the process or rapid events like green-up, leaf-out, and leaf-loss.
Phenological characteristics are typically calculated by pixel. As a result, it is difficult
to select an appropriate method to determine the Start of Season/End of Season
(SOS/EOS) of a region by RS image without ground observation. De Beurs and
Henebry (2010) divided 12 different methods to determine SOS by using RS images
into four categories: thresholds, derivatives, smoothing functions, and fitted models.

Other authors (Lloyd, 1990; Fischer, 1994; Zhou et al., 2003) showed that setting an
arbitrary threshold is the simplest way to determine the SOS/EOS in RS images of
which the study adopted. Usually the SOS is determined when the annual normalized
differential vegetation index (NDVI) curve first arrives at certain value whereas EOS
is determined as the day of the year when threshold is reached again in downward
direction of the curve.
 17

Normalised Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) is commonly used to observe

vegetation growth and dynamics (Myneni et al., 1997). The performance of NDVI
relies on the absorption of energy from red light by chlorophyll and scattering of near
infrared energy by green plants. The decrease of red reflectance and increase of near-
infrared make NDVI sensitive to canopy fluctuations. It can differentiate between
vegetated and non-vegetated pixels within an image and assess whether the observed
target contains living green vegetation or not. It is used to evaluate biotic activities on
the earth’s surface as well (Lee et al., 2002). The NDVI is calculated from two bands
reflectance of a sensor as follows:

NDVI= (NIR-RED) / (NIR+RED); Where RED and NIR bands represent the spectral
reflectance measurements in the red band and near infrared band, respectively.
Theoretically, NDVI of a given pixel scales from -1 to +1. The observed NDVI range
for a land surface with vegetation is from 0.05 to 0.8. A non-vegetated pixel typically
has a value close to 0, and highly vegetative pixels have high positive values. If the
values are 1,-1 or below, it corresponds to an area of rocks. NDVI saturates in high
biomass.

NDVI has been mentioned of success by several authors from different studies. For
example, studies done by Martiny et al. (2005; 2006) proved that NDVI data have
been successfully used to understand the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation
resources for at least three decades across sub Saharan Africa. Hutchinson (1991) also
mentioned that NDVI images have long been used to monitor crop growing conditions
over broad regions of semi-arid areas of sub-Saharan Africa. According to Rasmussen
et al. (1992), NDVI has also been used to predict crop yields and demonstrating a
significant correlation with annual and monthly rainfall totals. Nicholson, et al. (1994)
found out that these useful properties of the NDVI have led to its adoption by the
Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) as an operator indicator for food monitoring.
 18

This current study explored to express the effect of rainfall intervals on spatial and
temporal dynamics of NDVI in WPC. It produced an original analysis of the 2000-
2012 NDVI data series from SPOT 5 satellite for WPC to reveal spatial and temporal
changes in potential primary productivity. The intrinsic trend was a smooth function
that shows the gradual longer-term change in NDVI which is an index of potential
primary productivity.

2.5.1 Tools for climate and variability prediction

Previous studies on the impacts of rainfall variability on crop yield made use of only
statistical-based technique in their analysis. Among these are the works by Tim
(2000); FAO (2001); Chiew (2002); Adejuwon (2004); Adejuwon and Odekunle
(2006). GIS offers a mechanism to integrate many scales of data developed in/for
agricultural research. Surprisingly, little systematic research has focused on the
distribution patterns of the impacts of rainfall variability in terms of mapping the
spatio-temporal impact using the GIS equipment. There is no doubt that farmers and
Agricultural Agencies increasingly need detailed GIS maps of this kind as a means of
Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to plan crops planting schemes and to
monitor yield rates. Complementing statistics with GIS, remote sensing techniques has
been historically used for agricultural applications and have been most fruitful (Uboldi
and Chuvieco, 1997). Same authors noted that right from the beginning of the Landsat
programme, the potential value of remote sensing data for predicting crop yield have
been explored. According to Das (2000), combining local and global resolution
sensors, crop inventory have been pursued most effectively on a large scale. Remote
sensing therefore offers an economical means of collecting data from which valuable
agriculture statistics or agricultural related information can be derived.
 19

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.0 Introduction

This chapter describes the study area, design and identifies the nature, type and
sources of data obtained. It also presents the description of the techniques, methods of
data collection, sampling of the respondents and the statistical tools used for data
analysis. To achieve the objectives outlined in 1.3, the methodology employed
integrated technologies of remote sensing, GIS for spatial data capture and analysis
and statistical method (questionnaires and interviews).

3.1 Study Area

Location: West Pokot County is situated in the former Rift valley Province along
Kenya’s Western boundary with Uganda. It lies between latitudes 100 10'N and 300
40'N and longitudes 340 50'E and 350 50'E and covers approximately 9,100 square
kilometers. Its average elevation is 1674m above sea level. Neighboring counties are:
Turkana to the North; Baringo to the South East; Marakwet to the South and Trans-
Nzoia to the South West. The county headquarter is located in Kapenguria town which
is approximately 435 km from Nairobi by road. The map showing the study area is as
shown in Figure 3.1 below.
 20

Figure 3.1: Map of West Pokot County showing the study sites

Climate: WPC has relatively rugged terrain characterized by hills, dry plains and
rugged escarpments which influences its climate with the lowlands experiencing arid
climates and the highlands experiencing sub humid climates. The county has two rainy
seasons i.e. the "long rains" (March – June) and the "short rains" (September –
November). Annual rainfall ranges from 700 mm in the lowlands to 1600 mm in the
highlands. Temperature ranges from 150C to 300 C in the lowlands and to as low as
90C in the highlands. Generally, 80% of the county is arid or semiarid.
 21

Population: The County is inhabited primarily by the Pokots and has a population of
512,690 people with a density of 56 persons per square kilometer (GoK, 2009).
Population distribution is uneven with high settlement densities on the highlands of
Lelan and Kapenguria. About 60% of the population live in the lowlands such as
Alale, Kacheliba, Chesegon and parts of Sigor division and practice nomadic
pastoralism while the rest of the population are agro-pastoralists living in the
highlands.

Drainage: The County, which is typically a rangeland, is drained by Rivers Turkwel,

Kerio and Nzoia. Rivers Turkwel and Kerio drain northwards into Lake Turkana while
River Nzoia drains into the Lake Victoria in the south (Adan and Pkalya, 2005).
Ninety five percent of the County is part of Turkwell catchment while the other 5% is
part of Kerio catchment. The Suam River is the only perennial stream in the Alale-
Kapedo and the Suam- Turkwel sub-catchment areas. All the major and minor
tributaries of the Suam River are seasonal. Apart from these, other perennial rivers are
Muruny and Weiwei and their tributaries around the Cherangani hills.

Poverty rate: By 2006, poverty level in WPC stood at 69.4%. By 2009, 69.8% of
WPC population was poor (GoK, 2009) and the poverty rate in the rural and urban
areas registered 53% and 65%, respectively. The highest numbers of the poor are
found in the divisions of Kongelai and Alale. High prevalence of poverty is mainly
attributed to unreliable weather patterns, unemployment, poor infrastructure and
insecurity (cattle rustling). Insecurity deprives the people of their live hoods, leading
to abandonment of homesteads and disruption of economic activities, subjecting them
to high levels of vulnerability (GOK, 2009).

3.2 Study design

Study sites were selected with regard to the land classification types in West Pokot
largely based on food (crop) production potential. According to Hogg (1984), the
Pokot themselves utilize their land largely on the basis of altitude, rainfall and
 22

agricultural potential. As noted by the same author, the Pokot have classifies their land
into three zones. Briefly, he analyzes the three zones as follows: The Masop, or high
mountain tops, which receive most of the rain and are heavily forested, the Kamas, or
steep mountain slopes, and the Tow, or flat valley land. Thus, food production in the
area corresponds more or less to altitude, soils and climatic conditions.

In this regard, the study classified its interest on high potential zones which are all area
in the highlands and corresponds with Masop. This area receives the highest amount
of precipitation per annum. Most of West Pokot district areas fall in this category.
Medium potential was defined by areas adjacent to the highlands and corresponds with
Kamas. Most of South Pokot district areas fall in this category. Finally, low potential
i.e. area far away from the highland and is mostly arid and corresponds with Tow.
Most of North Pokot district areas fall in this category.

3.3 Sampling procedures

Purposive and random sampling was used to select households for the study. The
formula used is as shown below:
Sample size n = [ ( z2 * p * q ) + ME2 ] / [ ME2 + z2 * p * q / N ]
n =sample size, z =critical standard score, p = population proportion, q = 1- p, ME =
margin of error, N =size of the population
n = [ ( (1.96)2 * 0.94 * 0.06 ) + (0.04)2 ] / [ (0.04)2 + (1.96)2 * 0.94 * 0.06 / 512690 ] =
136 households (http://stattrek.com/sample-size/simple-random-sample.aspx)

First, West Pokot County was purposively sampled based on the geographical
location, diversity in agroecological zones and proneness to drought events. A list of
administrative districts in the three land classification types was given from which one
district was selected randomly as a representative whereby West Pokot District, South
Pokot District and North Pokot District were selected. From the randomly selected
districts, the divisions within the county were listed and purposively categorised on the
 23

basis of the land classification in the area, climatic conditions experienced in the
specific locations, accessibility/security and the extent to which they were perceived to
be prone to extreme climate events whereby one division per district was selected and
Kapenguria, Chepareria and Kacheliba were selected. Alale was termed to be more
severe in terms of the impacts of climate variability conditions on food security but
due to the prevailing insecurity conditions, Kacheliba was selected instead following
the similarity in climatic conditions. Further 20 locations from the divisions were
randomly selected. Finally, the total number of households was obtained from the
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics records for the area. A random start was used in
choosing the first household to be interviewed.

3.4 Instruments

The study used survey method whereby it administered both open and closed
questionnaires to farmers. It also used GIS images from SPOT 5 and Landsat for past
evidences.

3.5 Data collection procedure

The study used both primary and secondary sources of data to obtain its information.
The description of this two sources are elaborated in the below sections.

3.5.1 Primary sources of data

The study administered questionnaires to elicit information for ground truthing and for
perception study. Both structured and unstructured questionnaires were used for
farmers. For the selected households whose owners was absent, next household was
chosen and interviewed, a total of 124 households were interviewed. To complement
the household questionnaire data, 20 individuals from various organizations were
interviewed key informants.

The study also used remote sensed data from land sat satellite images for the years
1984, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Due to unavailability of the past years NDVI images from
 24

SPOT (i.e. 1980 upwards), those for the years: 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2012 were used.
The study therefore validated GIS data with statistics method for precision.

3.5.2 Secondary sources of data

The study obtained data from published and unpublished works. For example, it
obtained data from Kenya metrological, Government of Kenya publications, books,
articles, dissertations, theses and newspapers to supplement archival sources and
accounts based on oral traditions.

3.5.3 Remote Sensing Data

For land use land cover changes, the study involved data acquisition, processing,
analysis and interpretation activities. The years selected for the land use/ land cover
changes depended on the availability of the satellite images and were: 1984, 1990,
2000 and 2010. Choice of satellite imagery was based on spatial and radiometric
resolution, availability of imagery in the years of study and affordability. LANDSAT
satellite imagery was thus chosen as it is freely available, medium resolution,
multispectral and good quality imagery in the years of study was available
(Kenduiywo et al., 2013).

LANDSAT has 7 spectral bands. Bands 1, 2 and 3 are in the reflective visible segment
of the electromagnetic spectrum, Band 4 in the reflective Near Infrared(NIR), Bands 5
and 7 in the reflective Short wave Infrared (SWIR) and Band 6 is in the emissive
thermal Infrared (TIR) segment. The spatial resolution is 30 metres for all bands apart
from Band 6 which has a spatial resolution of 120 metres (TM) and 60 metres (ETM)
(Kenduiywo et al., 2013). LANDSAT TM imagery was used for 1984, 1990, 2000 and
2010. The spatial resolution of LANDSAT imagery and the fact that it is multispectral
makes it a suitable source of data for environmental and climate studies since various
band combinations provide information on the land surface and its properties.
 25

3.5.3.1 Data Acquisition

Satellite imagery from Landsat TM (year 1984), TM (year 1990), ETM (year 2000)
and ETM+ (year 2010) were obtained. The Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery
provides seven multispectral channels (3 visible, 1 near-infrared, 2 mid-infrared, 1
thermal-infrared) at 30-meter resolution (120-meter resolution for the thermal-infrared
band). Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) adds an extra 15-meter resolution
panchromatic band and improved resolution for the thermal-infrared band (60-meters).
Landsat satellite images were acquired covering the area of interest that is the WPC.

The acquisition date of all the images is as shown in table 3.1 below

Table 3.1: Acquisition date of Landsat images

Year Image Date
1984 P169R59
P170R58
P170R59
1990 P169R59 1st March
P170R58
P170R59 27th March
2000 P169R59 27th January
P170R58
P170R59 6th March
2010 P169R59
P170R58
P170R59

3.5.3.2 Image Processing

Band combinations for the four sets of geo-referenced Landsat data were done to
obtain color composites to enable interpretation. Bands 4, 3, 2 for TM and ETM+
images represent Red, Green and Blue (RGB). The bands help in vegetation
enhancement, color contrast and also give more information. Erdas Imagine 10 was
used to do the image processing and enhancement. Figures 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5 below
 26

shows the false color Landsat satellite images for years 1984, 1990, 2000 and 2010
respectively.

Figure 3.2: Landsat TM 1984 showing the false colours with the Visible (R, G, B)
Image Prior to image classification for West Pokot County
 27

Figure 3.3: Landsat TM 1990 showing the false colours with the Visible (R, G, B)
Image Prior to image classification for West Pokot County
 28

Figure 3.4: Landsat ETM+ 2000 showing the false colours with the Visible (R, G,
B) Image Prior to image classification for West Pokot County
 29

Figure 3.5: Landsat ETM+ 2010 showing the false colours with the Visible (R, G,
B) Image Prior to image classification for West Pokot County

3.5.3.3 Image classification

The area of interest was clipped out from the images for interpretation. Visual
interpretation was then done using MadCat software. This was done by segmenting the
raster (vectorizing raster image into shape files for classification). Interpretation of
these segments was done for all the years based on the interpreter’s skills and
knowledge as well as using available ancillary data.
 30

3.5.4 Vegetation Index- Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) images were used based on surface
reflectance in the near infrared and the red bands and more data from the field visits
and meteorological data were used in order to test the results and to provide
interpretations for the NDVI images. SPOT 5 multispectral data sets were used in this
study. SPOT-5 scenes have a 10m-pixel resolution and 4 spectral bands: band 1 (0.50-
0.59μm: green), band 2 (0.61-0.68 μm: red), band 3 (0.79-0.89 μm: near infrared NIR)
and band 4 (1.57 -1.75 μm: short-wave infrared SWIR) (Anim, 2013). The
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was extracted for each year of study
and maps of NDVI were generated. Multispectral vegetation indices were represented
by algebraic combination of remotely sensed spectral bands that indicated the
phenology of the vegetation cover. For the state of the crops, the different sensitivity
of the mentioned electromagnetic spectra was used to estimate the productivity of the
study area

3.6 Data analysis

Data analysis entailed image interpretation which included examination and detection
of cropland in the area from the image. The NDVI anomalies for the years and
changes in productivity observed between the subsequent years were also interpreted.
The GIS Approach: Geographic information systems (GISs) provided a spatial
framework to support spatio-temporal analysis of Landsat data. The GIS geo-
processing tools analyzed information based on vegetation indices and other spatial
data. Softwares used included: Erdas Imagine 2011 especially for geometric
correction, Arc Gis 10 for developing maps and MadCat for visual interpretation. For
the questionnaires and interview schedules, SPSS was used for frequencies and cross
tabulation for perceptions and excel used for analyzing temperature and rainfall data.
Data obtained was displayed in form of maps, tables and graphs. Also photographs
were used for ground truthing and visual interpretation.
 31

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1 Application of remote sensing and Geographic Information System

technology on spatial variability in relation to climate variation in the county

This objective discussed the statistics on LULC in the study area that have been
obtained from the step-by-step classification of land cover from Landsat satellite
imagery of the specified years. Information and statistics obtained are used to provide
information about the different land use practices in that area and using survey
method, the study validated the findings i.e. whether the changes noted are due to
climate variability. LULC analysis using statistics obtained is then discussed and
analyzed. Land use data is collected in an effort to provide a basis of monitoring land
use changes so as to detect change and its impact on the environment.

A total of five land cover classes were considered namely: Forestland, Cropland,
Grassland, Settlements and Wetlands. Figures 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4 below (for 1984,
1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively) show maps of the interpreted images of West Pokot
County.
 32

Figure 4.1: Land use 1984 indicating grassland as the dominating land use type
 33

Figure 4.2: Land use 1990 indicating a decrease in grassland and forestland as
cropland increases
 34

Figure 4.3: Land use 2000 with an indication of a steady increase in cropland
and settlement followed by a decrease in forestland and wetland
 35

Figure 4.4: Land use 2010 showing a steady increase in settlement followed by
cropland as grassland decreases steadily
 36

Table 4.1: Land use types in West Pokot County and the corresponding Area in
Ha

%change
LANDUSE/ Area in (1984-
Hectares (Ha) 1984 1990 2000 2010 2010)
Cropland 79759 93586 101591 134253 68

Forestland 90725 85868 77302 77836 -14

Grassland 728309 721791 727189 687566 -6

Settlements 32 83 95 167 422

Wetlands 7774 5272 4226 6839 12

Land use types in West Pokot County and the corresponding Area in Hectares

Table 4.1 above illustrates the main land use types and respective hectares in West
Pokot County for the years 1984, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively.
Like many other regions in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), study area continues to
experience changes in LULC for the years 1984-2010. The results indicate a general
decrease in areas under natural vegetation formations (forest and grassland) and an
increase in areas under agricultural land.
 37

Figure 4.5: Land use – cropland: showing the trend of cropland in West Pokot
County over the years

Croplands dominated more in high and medium potential areas which included
Kapenguria and Chepareria and has increased steadily (Ref. to figure 4.5 above).
These results are in conformity with the results reported by Githui et al. (2009) in
Nzoia Basin of Western Kenya who observed that the area under agricultural land
increased from 39.6% in 1973 to 46.6% in 1986/1988 and to 64.3% in 2000/2001.
Similar patterns of LULC change were also reported by Nambiro (2007). This increase
in area under cultivation is in response to the increased demand for land to produce
more food for the increasing human population. For example, the population of West
Pokot County increased from 1979- 158,652; 1989-225,449; 1999-308,086 to 512,690
in 2009 (Republic of Kenya, 2005; Republic of Kenya, 2010). Further, the smallholder
agriculture that is predominant in the region is much less productive in terms of yield
per unit of land. This has forced communities to seek extra land (extensification) as
opposed to increasing production on existing areas (intensification).
 38

Figure 4.6: Land use – forestland: Showing the trend of the forestland in West
Pokot County over the years

The area under forest cover shows a decreasing trend followed by a slight increase in
the year 2010 (figure 4.6). The patterns of forest destruction are reflected in the overall
decline in the national forest cover from 10% in 1963 to 1.7% in 2006 (Masinde and
Karanja, 2011). Between 1955 and 2004, the indigenous forest areas in the Taita Hills
decreased by 50% (Maeda et al., 2010). Similar forest decimations have been reported
for other areas such as Nandi and Kakamega (Mitchell and Schaab, 2006), Mt. Kenya
and the Arberdares (NEMA, 2011). The decrease in west Pokot was attributed to
clearing of forestland for crop farming and charcoal burning for income to substitute
the decreased income from crop farming. Similarly, the changes in forest cover have
mainly been attributed to forest excision to pave way for agricultural land expansion,
charcoal burning, pit sawing, grazing and collection of fuel wood (Mitchell, 2004).
 39

Figure 4.7: Land use – grassland: showing the trend of grassland in West Pokot
County over the years

It is observed that the grassland dominates more in the low potential areas like
Kacheliba though exhibiting a decreasing trend in terms of land coverage. In a study
conducted by Chu et al., 2006, found out that there were several factors leading to
grassland degradation, which included overgrazing, consuming biomass energy
(mainly within the grassland) for domestic energy. The results conforms with those of
West Pokot area (Ref. to figure 4.7 above), whereby the decreasing trend was in
response to overgrazing, clearing shrubs within the grassland for charcoal burning,
clearing of land for crop farming as well as land fragmentation due to permanent
settlement as opposed to nomadism. The results corroborates with those of Kioko and
Okello (2010) who noted that since the 1960s, the grazing range of the pastoral
communities has continued to decline due to land fragmentation.
 40

Figure 4.8: Land use – wetlands: showing the trend of wetlands in West Pokot
County over the years

Wetlands shows a decreasing trend for the years 1984, 1990 and 2000 following the
low rainfall and the resultant high temperatures experienced in the area over the
specified years while in 2010 there is an increase due to the high rains experienced in
the area (Ref. to figure 4.8 above). The results reflected that rainfall and temperature
determines the wetland coverage hence water availability and therefore can be greatly
affected by climate change and variations. The results agrees with those of DSE
(2008) who also found out that climate change and variability are the biggest factors
affecting water availability and reliability. For example, a 10% drop in rainfall as
suggested by regional predictions in areas of less than 500 mm per year will result in a
50% decline in surface drainage (Hoffman and Vogel, 2008). Such a decline in surface
drainage would have devastating consequences in ASAL which covers 89% of the
total land mass in Kenya (ASAL Policy, 2012). Therefore increasing demand of water
for livestock and people will likely increase tensions around scarce water and pasture
resources.
 41

Figure 4.9: Land use – settlements: showing the trend of settlements in West
Pokot County over the years

Hitherto other land use types showing a decreasing trend, the area under settlement
has been increasing steadily (Ref to figure 4.9 above). This follows the steadily
increase in human population in the areas. For example, the population of West Pokot
County increased from 1979- 158,652; 1989-225,449; 1999-308,086 to 512,690 in
2009 (Republic of Kenya, 2005; Republic of Kenya, 2010). The increase is in
response to the nomads also permanently settling as opposed to the before temporary
houses.

4.2 To characterize annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature from 1980 -
2011 in West Pokot county

4.2.0 Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature

The daily rainfall and temperature data for the period 1980-2011 from the Kenya
meteorological department for West Pokot County was aggregated into monthly and
yearly totals. The results were then analyzed for trend changes and presented in the
figures shown Figure 4.2.1 below.
 42

4.2.1 Rainfall analysis

Figure 4.10: Annual rainfall trend from 1980 to 2011 in West Pokot County

Figure 4.10 shows the annual rainfall variability of the study area. The main rainy
season at local level between 1980 and 2011 revealed that the study area received
variable rain. It is therefore apparent from the findings that there is no consistent
rainfall trend observed overtime in West Pokot suggesting that the yearly rainfall
trends were likely to be unpredictable. The results corroborates with Amissah-Arthur
et al. (2002) observations when they characterized effects of El Nino events on rainfall
trends in Kenya. Similarly, the pattern in WPC illustrates unpredictable cycle as heavy
rains were often followed by scarce rains. Evidence of climate variability has become
more pronounced in through the alternating cycles of droughts and floods (Huho and
Kosonei, 2014). Examples mentioned by Kenya Red Cross Society, (2012) are the
unpredictable cycles especially 2004 and 2009 experienced in Kenya where droughts
 43

were interposed with floods and caused devastating impacts on crop yields. Other
studies by e.g by Musingi (2013) noted that the 2008/9 drought episode was one of the
severest on record in Kenya over the past decade with widespread socio-economic
impacts, which included famine and a decline in the length of the growing season.
West Pokot was not an exception, as observed the pattern as from 2005 (a sharp
increase from the low rains of 2004) to 2008 (after which in 2009 rains declined) the
rains were high. On the same, respondents affirmed that rainfalls have become
irregular and unpredictable, and they said that when it rains, downpour is more intense
resulting in destruction of crops especially if it is during maturity period of maize and
beans. The findings are also in line with Haile’s (2007) findings that rainfall
variability has a significant negative effect on the probability of growing crops
including maize. As well the results corroborates with the global climate models
which predicts shifts in rainy seasons, intense rains, and rainfall variability by up to 5-
20% in Kenya by the year 2030 (World Wide Fund – WWF, 2006) which will bring
considerable reduction in the length of the growing season in the arid and semi-arid
environments (Galvin et al., 2001).

The mean rainfall in WPC from 1980 to 2011 was 973.4 mm p.a. Years 1984 and
2000 experienced the lowest precipitation of 631.6 mm and 619 mm respectively. One
farmer noted “the year 2000 was a year I can’t forget, I slept hungry most of the days
due to crop failure, there was no rainfall for my crops to grow’’. Similarly, during the
year 2000, West Pokot was noted to have experienced very poor rains leading to
serious food shortages and lack of water for both livestock and the human population.
An assessment conducted by ACT Nairobi Forum led by Norwegian Church Aid
(NCA) revealed near total crop failure with mixed farming zones realizing less than
10% food harvest. This resulted in a substantial rise in malnutrition levels especially
among children and women. The intervention proposed in this regard was included
distribution of relief food (see http://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/fews-kenya-food-
security-update-august-2000). These results above can be harmonized by Ngigi (2009)
who noted that most areas characterized by low and erratic rainfall, concentrated in
 44

one or two rainy seasons may result in high risk of droughts, intra- and off-seasonal
dry spells, and frequent food insecurity.

The highest amount of annual precipitation was received in 1982 totaling 1348mm p.a.
followed by 2011 totaling 1308mm p.a. The year 1982 was also significantly noted by
Dietz and Annemieke (1983) to have good rainfall with sufficient maize production.
The authors in their study in WPC for the year 1982 noted that for most of the
households in (at least three fourth) the maize production was sufficient. They found
out that about half of the households gave away some food to far relatives, almost 3
tins of 15kg by each on average. Equally, GOK (2011), on its’ 2011/12 short rains
season assessment report classified West Pokot as having none or minimal score on
the acute food security phase classification. This meant the number of meals and
dietary diversity was normal in West Pokot due to good harvest supported by enough
rains. Comparing with 1980 and 1981 which had minimal rains Dietz and Annemieke
(1983) found out that all households got famine relief.

4.2.2 Temperature analysis

Minimum and Maximum monthly daily temperature for WPC was obtained and
average daily temperature per month and per year calculated for High lands of WPC
(covers high food potential area and parts of medium food potential area i.e.
Kapenguria and parts of Chepareria) and Low lands of WPC (covers low food
potential area and parts of medium food potential area i.e. Kacheliba and parts of
Chepareria).
 45

Figure 4.11: Average daily temperature per annum in West Pokot County
lowlands

Results from figure 4.11 above showed that from 1980 to 2012, in WPC lowland
areas, the lowest annual daily temperature was in 1985 with 29.13OC, and the highest
annual daily temperature was in 2009 with 30.38OC. The temperature range from
1980 to 2012 was therefore 1.25 OC and average annual temperature was 29.74OC. The
temperature range of 1.25 OC in WPC lowland areas demonstrated that a significant
rise in the temperature occurred between 1985 and 2012, and this corroborate the
recent trends of global warming as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2012) report.
 46

Figure 4.12: Average daily temperature per annum in West Pokot County
highlands

In West Pokot County highland areas (Figure 4.12 above), the minimum annual daily
temperature was 18.39OC in 1985, and the maximum annual daily temperature was
19.68OC in 2005. Maximum and minimum temperature range from 1980 to 2012 was
therefore 1.29 OC and average annual daily temperature was 19.08OC. The temperature
range of 1.29 OC in West Pokot County highland areas showed that effects of warming
temperatures are already being felt in the region even in the highlands. The results are
consistent with previous studies in the region by King’uyu et al. (2000), Anyah and
Semazzi (2006) on temperature variability trend anomalies in the highlands.

4.3 The phenology of agricultural vegetation in the West Pokot County

This section presents results for inter annual variation in NDVI assessment for WPC
for the period 2000 to 2012. Figures 4.13, 4.14, 4.15, 4.16 below show the vegetation
production represented by the NDVI images for years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2012
respectively.
 47

Figure 4.13: NDVI image for 2000 showing poor vegetation

 48

Figure 4.14: NDVI image for 2005 with a slight improvement of vegetation
greenness as compared to the year 2000
 49

Figure 4.15: NDVI image for 2010 with the best vegetation greenness over the
years studied
 50

Figure 4.16: NDVI image for 2012 with a decrease in vegetation greenness as
compared to the year 2010 above
 51

Overall, vegetation greenness differed significantly with each other, with Kapenguria
having highest greenness followed by Chepareria and Kacheliba with the lowest. The
variability of these patterns show the underlying patterns of rainfall, vegetation
formation and types which tend to vary in structure across the study area. However,
despite the perceived decrease in vegetation attributes (Okoti et al., 2004), all the sites
showed positive trends in NDVI through the satellite time series data. Results showed
that there has been a consistent increase in vegetation greenness in the three study sites
with the greenness increasing consistently from the lowest in 2000 to a peak in 2011
and decreasing in 2012 due to the respective decrease in rainfall recorded. In a similar
study conducted by Omondi (2014) in Turkana area, he noted that the peaks and lows
of the vegetation greenness naturally represent the rainy and dry periods. For example,
the image for the year 2000 represents poor vegetation in both study sites with
Kacheliba recording the very poor followed by Chepareria and thirdly Kapenguria.
This was the year (under those considered) that recorded lowest rainfall in WPC with
619 mm. 2005 recorded better results with the green colour increasing its’ percentage
especially in Kapenguria, Chepareria and Kacheliba respectively; the year had
improved rainfall of 933mm. The year 2010 also showed healthy vegetation in both
high potential zones following the noted increased rainfall of 1210mm. The NDVI
pattern and the resulting NDVI maps therefore show NDVI is directly correlated with
precipitation. A similar trend of ‘greening’ of drylands has been documented by (Vlek
et al., 2010; Fensholt et al., 2012). Some authors stated that the greening observed in
the arid lands is due to a gradual improvement in precipitation (Hulme et al., 2001;
Vlek et al., 2008).

However the greening effect observed in the drylands could also be attributed to the
Government’s and other development partners’ initiative to promote soil and water
conservation practices (Omondi, 2014). For example extensive on farm tree planting
programs have in the past been initiated by the Vi Agroforestry Programme and the
World Agroforesty Centre.
 52

The below graphical representations (Figure 4.17) demonstrates more on the

relationship between NDVI and rainfall

Figure 4.17: NDVI values and Rainfall data for 2000-2010 in West Pokot County

From the results, frequency of rainfall conditions over the decade is well represented
by the NDVI anomaly patterns across the area during this study period. In general, the
time series trends in NDVI indicate changes in NDVI over the specified years. The
persistent nature of the seasonal effect on NDVI between 2000 and 2010 is in
agreement with the historical patterns of rainfall anomalies observed in other parts of
Kenya by Shisanya et al. (2011).

As noted in figure 4.17 above, the year 2000 had the lowest NDVI values due to the
lowest rainfall amount in the area over the years; meaning that there was inadequate
soil moisture and crop stress caused by little precipitation due to the resultant drought
and very low rainfall. This shows that the vegetation growth in rain-fed agriculture is
limited by rainfall availability and its’ unpredictability can have a significant effect on
vegetation growth.
 53

On the other hand, 2010 recorded higher NDVI values, meaning the vegetation was
healthy and received enough rain. Moreover, it received the highest amount of rainfall
for the specified years of the study. The relative density of vegetation in a year as
determined by greater NDVI values for rain-fed agriculture is therefore a good
indicator of crop yield in that year and also a good indicator of adequate amount of
rainfall received. However, some studies e.g. Omondi, (2014) had argued that beyond
rainfall, patterns of vegetation could also be influenced by inherent soil fertility status
as well as the land use and land cover changes taking place either due to natural or
human activities. Studies by Okoti et al. (2004) also established that in addition to
rainfall amount, factors such as soil type, deforestation, overgrazing, and land use
activities determine primary biological productivity. In the case of WPC, rainfall
distribution, alongside bio-physical characteristics such as presence of high
populations of human in Kapenguria and Chepareria and livestock in Kacheliba
respectively could be a major determinant of vegetation greenness anomalies.

Analysis of NDVI anomalies

A number of studies conducted in arid and semi-arid ecosystems show that time series
of remotely sensed NDVI can be a reliable indicator of physical climate variables
including rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration in a wide range of
environmental conditions (Nicholson et al., 1990, Anyamba and Tucker, 2001). The
following graphs (Figure 4.18 below) show the deviation from normal NDVI data
during 2000-2010 in WPC. Overall, the NDVI time series results show on average
very low values from January to February and then afterwards increases and reaches a
peak in June before it starts decreasing up to July. This pattern clearly shows close
correspondence of monthly rainfall anomalies with NDVI. It can be thus summarized
that NDVI anomalies, which are a culmination of how environmental factors (rainfall,
soil moisture and temperature) act upon the land surface, have stronger linkages with
monthly rainfall anomalies than any other climatic variable (Omondi, 2014). Results
from the study conducted by Omondi (2014) confirmed that good correlation occurred
 54

between average rainfall and NDVI for monthly data with a trend of increasing NDVI
with rainfall. Overall, better correlation between rainfall and NDVI was observed in
Kapenguria, Chepareria and Kacheliba.

The study findings revealed that driest years had the lowest NDVI values while the
wettest years had maximum NDVI values. The analysis of the NDVI anomalies
revealed that a drought in the county occurred in 2000 recording a negative NDVI
anomaly i.e. NDVI for year 2000 was less than Mean NDVI (Average year smoothed).
Similarly, a study conducted by Omondi (2014) mentioned that the OND rainfall in
1998, 2000, 2003, 2009 and 2010 recorded below normal rainfall for Lokichoggio,
Kakuma and Oropoi in Turkana. Of the five years with below normal rainfall, the
same author noted that 2000 had the most pronounced depressed rainfall with all the
three sites recording a negative normalized precipitation index during the OND
rainfall. Similarly, the current study in West Pokot result revealed that that 2010/2011
was not the worst hydrological drought year as reported elsewhere. For example, the
lowest normalized rainfall values recorded for all the three locations by Omondi
(2014) was -0.21 for MAM and -0.32 for OND rains in 2000, while the normalized
OND rainfall in 2011 were all positive. This result was corroborated from the field
response of the respondents showing 2000 drought as the worst in the county in recent
years and crops were devastated. The results in West Pokot which showed that years
2005, 2010 and 2012 had both positive NDVI anomalies, with 2010 having a higher
NDVI anomaly followed by 2012 then 2005 also tallied with rainfall data as well
whereby 2010 was noted to have received a rainfall amount of 1210mm, followed by
2005 with 933mm. This results corroborates with other studies who have found that a
strong correlation exists between vegetation production indexed by NDVI and average
climatic distribution of precipitation in most ecosystems (Goward et al., 2003; Hellden
and Tottrup, 2009), making it useful for understanding the effects of wet season
months on vegetation greenness leading into the dry season.
 55

Overall, the study findings largely show that there are rainfall variations in the study
area as indicated by the NDVI value changes. Elsewhere, studies shows that the large
variations and trends in precipitation have resultant effects on vegetation dynamics,
and ecosystem structure and functions, especially in the arid and semi-arid ecosystems
where moisture availability is one of the most important constraints on vegetation
growth and development (Anyamba and Tucker, 2005). Other similar studies also
show that the mechanisms that govern atmosphere-plant-soil processes are strongly
influenced by water availability and any subtle shift in rainfall influence the ability of
plants vegetation to respond to such changes (Mortimore, 2009; Huber et al., 2011;
Gaughan et al., 2012; Gessner et al., 2013).
 56

Source: Author
Figure 4.18: Monthly NDVI values trend for years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2010
 57

The general crop phenology and characteristic growth in a year was summarised in
figure 4.19 below

Figure 4.19: Mean NDVI values trend

The rainy seasons makes a considerable contribution to crop growth, so averaging

NDVI data for these months fairly represent the growing season for the region. The
NDVI time series in West Pokot County results show on average very low values from
January to February and then afterwards increases and reaches a peak in May before it
starts decreasing up to September. This pattern shows close correspondence of
monthly rainfall anomalies with NDVI observed over a short period of time. It can be
thus summarized that NDVI anomalies, which are a culmination of how
environmental factors (soil moisture and temperature) act upon the land surface, have
stronger linkages with monthly rainfall anomalies than any other climatic variable
(Omondi, 2014).
 58

Table 4.2: NDVI vs. Mean Rainfall: Analysis of variance for mean rainfall and
mean NDVI values
Model ANOVA

Model Sum of Df Mean f Sig

squares squares

1 Regression .004 1 .004 1.722 .219a

Residual .023 10 .002

Total .027 11

a. Predictors: (Constant), meanRain

b. Dependent Variable: meanNDVI

However, in the analysis of relationship of rainfall and NDVI value when p<0.05 is
significant, results showed that changes in NDVI value versus rainfall is not
significant P=0.219 (Table 4.2 above) as supported by the lag in one month for NDVI
to reach its’ peak. Results from the study in West Pokot County also show that
although April and August are the peak rainfall months in the study locations, May
and September are the peak NDVI months. Thus, after rainfall onset, there is a one
month lag period for NDVI to reach its peak. In other studies, Malo and Nicholson
(1990) suggested that the lag appear to relate to the fact that the vegetation does not
respond directly to rainfall, but rather to soil moisture, which is a multi-months
integral of rainfall. Previous studies by Anyamba et al. (2005) reported 1-3 months
lagged response of rainfall and NDVI in eastern Africa after the 1997/ 1998 El Niño
event. Similarly, Wang and You (2004) found that vegetation response to North
Atlantic Oscillation delayed by 1.5 years. In other regions in Africa, Martiny et al.
(2006) observed that the lag between the rainfall and NDVI peaks was smallest in
western Africa with one month, and the highest in southern Africa with over 1.5
 59

month, which was found to be related to the increased rainfall rate before the peak.
The delayed effect of rainfall on vegetation anomalies has implications on the overall
food web in the rangeland ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001). Funk and Brown
(2006) have also used the lagged association between rainfall and NDVI to estimate
vegetation response to current climatic conditions, helping to make early warning
systems earlier for semi-arid communities in Africa. The close coupling between
seasonal rainfall and NDVI values in West Pokot County can therefore enhance
predictability providing a window of opportunity in planning for crop farming and
water resources in the arid and semi-arid areas.

4.4 Perception of the household on the relationship between food insecurity and
climate change in the area

4.4.1: Respondents views on climate variability occurrence from 1980-2012

Respondents from both study sites concurred that in the 1980s rainfalls and
temperatures were more regular and predictable in seasons. Rainfall seasons for
example were distinct, but currently, rains have become more unpredictable.
Temperatures were also noted of increased. Temperature increases are known to have
a significant impact on water availability, thus likely to exacerbate vulnerability of the
farmers (Hererro et al., 2010). The Global climate models for the region indicate that
by the year 2100, climate change will increase temperatures by about 4°C (Kabubo-
Mariara, 2008). Moreover, 68 % of the respondents strongly believe that climate
variability has occurred in the area and only 2% of the respondents reported of not
experiencing climate variability. The study is comparable to elsewhere in Africa, for
example in Ethiopia, farmers reported similar sentiments of reduced rainfalls and
changed rainfall patterns (Mengistu, et al., 2011). Comparably, in the neighboring
Southern Ethiopia, Deressa et al. (2011) observed a complex rainfall and temperature
trend patterns, with average minimum and maximum temperature increase of about
0.25 and 0.1, respectively, over the past decade, whereas rainfall patterns was
 60

characterized by unpredictable trends for the past 50 years. Farmers in Southern Africa
region also termed perceptions of droughts, floods, reduced rainfalls as stressors
(Mubaya, 2012). Thus as farmers give value of climate perceptions, the study
interpreted their valuing as emphasis of what variability entirely means to these
farmers’ agriculture and their livelihoods in general.

According to the interviewees, the long rains occur between March and May, while
the short rains occur between August and November. Farmers explained that rainfalls
have reduced in both quantity (amounts per rainfall) and quality in comparison to the
time they settled in the area. Changes in rainfall amount and patterns, affects soil
erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which are significant for crop yields (Kotir,
2011). In addition, varying temperatures make it difficult for the crops to grow with
little rains. These findings show the ability of farmers to value their climate as either
‘good’, ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’, which farmers are able to define subjectively is an
indicator of their in depth local knowledge and perceptions.

4.4.2: Effect of climate variability on crop production

The reduction of crop production was attributed to either low rainfall or erratic rainfall
patterns coupled with extreme temperature conditions. These observations by
respondents correspond with reports from weather stations that revealed high level of
variability of rainfall distribution over the past three decades in the arid and semi-arid
environments of Kenya (Shisanya et al., 2011). Also, the results corroborates with
Moron et al. (2013) who noted that Kenya’s intra-seasonal component is intrinsically
unpredictable. Farmers concurred that they had experienced severe droughts in several
years, quoting year 1984 and 2000 as years with most severe droughts that culminated
in losses of livestock and crops. Loss of crops and decrease in crop yields was
translated as food shortage by the respondents, hence their perception of increased
hunger. In literature, droughts are identified as a potential risk and source of losses in
agricultural production (Herrero et al., 2010 and Ericksen et al., 2011). An increase in
 61

the frequency of droughts in a region leads to decreased agricultural production (Mude

et al., 2007).

The results on the extent of climate variability impacts on crop production as

summarized in Figure 4.20 below show that in Kapenguria, 14% respondents believe
they have been greatly affected, 84% respondents believe they have been slightly
affected and 2% respondents believe they have not been affected. The decrease was
mostly attributed to varied rains and increased temperatures. According to IPCC
(2007) increased temperatures is also expected to reduce crop yields and increase
levels of food insecurity even in the moist tropics with predictions that during the next
decade millions of people particularly in developing countries will face major changes
in rainfall patterns and temperature variability regimes. This is expected to increase
risks in the agricultural sector (Gornall et al., 2010). In Chepareria, 27% respondents
believe they have been greatly affected, 66% respondents believe they have been
slightly affected and 7% respondents believe they have not been affected. In
Kacheliba, 75% respondents believe they have been greatly affected, 25% respondents
believe they have been slightly affected and none of respondents believe they have not
been affected. In general, 34% respondents believe they have been greatly affected
whereby Kacheliba was the most affected due to its’ increasing aridity and highly
variable and unpredictable rains. Sixty three percent of the respondents believe they
have been slightly affected and 3% respondents believe they have not been affected.

In a similar study conducted by Kalungu and Harris (2013) on smallholder farmers’

perception on changes on crop productivity in the semi-arid and sub-humid Regions of
Kenya in reference to climate variability results showed that 80% of farmers from all
sites perceived more changes in crop productivity for the past 30 years following
differences in climatical conditions. For instance, the study indicated that 74.4% of
farmers in semi-arid region perceived changes in crop productivity while 57.85% of
farmers from sub-humid region perceived changes in productivity for the past 10
years. Therefore climate variation is reported to have led to decrease in crop
 62

production and that there is need for a decisive policy if the area is to be preserved to
produce adequate food in the future.

Figure 4.20: Extent of climate change effect on food production in the study areas
of West Pokot County

4.4.3: Change in crop growing seasons

The respondents were asked if they had experienced any changes in crop growing
seasons. Their response is as shown in the figure 4.21 below.

Figure 4.21: Changes in crop growing seasons in West Pokot County

Length of growing season variations is a useful climatic indicator and has several
important climatological applications (Robeson, 2002). Changes in rainfall patterns, in
 63

addition to shifts in thermal regimes, influence local seasonal and annual water
balances and in turn affect the distribution of periods during which temperature and
moisture conditions permit agricultural crop production (Herrero et al., 2010). Such
characteristics are well reflected by the LGP since Kenya mostly relies on rainfed
agriculture (Fischer et al., 2002; Comprehensive Assessment, 2007).

From figure 4.21 above, in Kapenguria, 33% respondents said that crop growing
season was shorter than before; 55% respondents said was same as before, while 12%
respondents said it is longer than before. In Chepareria, 46% respondents said it was
shorter than before, 39% respondents said was the same as before, while 15%
respondents said it is longer than before. In Kacheliba, 57% respondents said it is
shorter than before, 9% respondents said is the same as before, 6% respondents said it
is longer than before, 3% respondents said is much longer than before, while 25%
respondents said it varies year to year depending on rainfall. The growing seasons
were therefore highly variable depending on the AEZ which as well coincides with
FAO (2011) report which also found out that the lengths of growing periods in the
three agro-ecological zones of WPC vary from 150 days in the highland site to 110-
120days in the lowland and mid-hill zones.

However, majority (44%) respondents said it is shorter than before due to higher
temperature and precipitation deficit hence crop dries faster albeit with small grains
due to less rains. A decrease in length of growing season could result, for example, in
alteration of planting dates determining lower yields of traditionally planting crops,
which may not fully mature (Linderholm, 2006). Bearing in mind that in many areas
with alternating wet and dry seasons, the annual rainfall is less than the amount of the
water that a crop well supplied with water would transpire during the growing season
(Ayanlade, et al., 2010) hence affect the entire crop growing cycle. Thirty eight
percent of the respondents said the length of growing season was the same as before,
11% respondents said it was longer than before, 1% respondents said is much longer
than before, while 6% respondents said it varies year to year depending on rainfall.
 64

This meant that the group is highly vulnerable based on weather fluctuations and
climate variability playing a significant role in crop growth and yield. Literature notes
that occurrence of abnormal weather episodes during any growing season or during
critical development stages may hamper growth processes resulting in yield reduction.
This makes climate variability a threat to food production leading to serious social and
economic implications (Geng and Cady, 1991; Hossain, 1997).

4.4.4: Views on changes in crop yield over the years

Farmers constantly stressed on declining crop production due to unpredictable,
sometimes incessant rains, as well as low rainfall, coupled with high temperatures on
the other hand, and the occurrence of extreme climatic events including hailstorms and
frost especially in Kapenguria. Their results concurs with those of IPCC (2007) which
predicted that by 2050, crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa will have declined by 14%
(rice), 22% (wheat) and 5% (maize) pushing the vast number of already poor, who
depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, deeper into poverty and vulnerability.
Parry et al. (2004) had also found that climate change is likely to lead to declining
crop yields and to increase the disparities in cereal yields between developed and
developing countries.

Figure 4.22 shows that in Kapenguria, 49% respondents said crop yields has declined,
24% respondents said crop yields was stable, while 27% respondents reported that
crop yields had increased. In Chepareria, 61% respondents reported that crop yields
had declined, 27% respondents reported crop yields was stable, while 12%
respondents said crop yields had increased. In Kacheliba, 97% respondents reported
that crop yields had declined. None of the respondents reported crop yields was stable,
while 3% respondents reported crop yields had increased. In general, 65% of
respondents reported that crop yields had declined. The results also support earlier
studies that have found that climate change is likely to have adverse effects on farm
productivity in Africa (Massetti & Mendelsohn, 2011; Kabara and Kabubo -Mariara,
 65

2011; Molua 2008; Nhemachena et al., 2010). The result also concurs with those of
Braun (2007); Pingali (2012) who noted that the ongoing climate change is forecasted
to reduce crop yields in many parts of the world.

However, those from the lowland were impacted most due to increasing aridity in the
area following the increasing temperatures with unpredictable rains coupled with
frequent droughts. This defines their vulnerability to food insecurity and validates
IPCC (2007) conclusions that the eastern and northern arid and semi-arid lands
(ASAL) are expected to see an overall decrease in precipitation due to climate change
and variability. Sixteen 16% of the respondents said crop yields had increased could
be attributed to those who practiced irrigation as an adaptation measure and the higher
population density in especially the highlands (who reported of 27% increase) than the
lowlands who reported 3% increase. Literature suggests that population density is a
proxy for agricultural adaptation options (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008).
Population density could also capture availability of farm labor. The positive
significant effect on maize and beans could be interpreted as suggesting that
adaptation to climate change and availability of family labor are associated with
increased yields and thus food security (Mariara and Kabara, 2014).

Figure 4.22: changes in crop yield over the years in the study area
 66

4.4.5: Weather forecast information access by the respondents

Availability of climate information is a prerequisite for climate-informed decision

making (Dinku et al., 2014) to strengthen the resilience of the poor and the vulnerable
against climate variability and change (Fischer et al., 2002). The respondents were
asked to explain whether they have access to weather forecast information for early
warning purposes and from which source (Table 4.3). Sixteen percent of the
respondents from Kapenguria, 10% from Chepareria, and 22% Kacheliba did not have
access to any form of weather forecast information. In total, 15% of the respondents
did not have access to any weather forecast information. Drawing from the
respondents’ perceptions, it is clear that the study area is and will be more vulnerable
to dry spells, droughts and to some extent, violent storms. This group practiced
farming with no knowledge of weather changes at all. The concern is that they may
not be adequately empowered to respond and adapt to the projected magnitude of
climate changes (Boko et al., 2007). Other studies have made similar observations.
For example, a study conducted by Gwimbi (2009) in Gokwe District of Zimbabwe,
reveal that more than 70 percent of the surveyed farmers lacked access to timely
weather forecasts. Further, related studies (for example, Ziervogel et al., 2004; Lemos
and Dilling, 2007) highlight that forecasts have not been extensively embraced and
their effective utilisation has lagged behind, particularly among marginal. Climate
information and support services play a critical role in providing Early Warning
Systems (EAS) as well as increasing awareness for building the capacity and disaster
preparedness to a changing climate.

However, 54% of the respondents obtained their source of weather forecast

information primarily from radio and 15% from traditional forecasters. Cherotich, et
al. (2012) noted that the choice of the dissemination channels can influence access and
use of climate information and service disseminated to enable the vulnerable groups
exposed to climatic hazards build adequate response capacities. Hansen et al. (2007)
argues that radio and ICT based communication offer immense potential to support the
 67

delivery of climate information support services; but cannot replace the trust, visual
communication of location-specific information, feedback and mutual learning that
face-to-face interaction provides. Their responses are summarized in the table 4.3
below

Table 4.3: Access to weather forecast information in the study sites

% Source of weather forecast information

Agro-ecological zone
Kapenguria Chepareria Kacheliba All

Traditional forecasters 2 22 28 15
Radio 60 54 44 54
Radio & Traditional 14 12 0 10
forecasters
Radio & Government 4 2 0 2
extension agents
Local elders 2 0 3 2
Radio & TV 2 0 0 1
TV 0 0 3 1
Do not access 16 10 22 15
Total % 100 100 100 100

Farmers accessed forecast and early warning information through the radio, traditional
forecasters, TV, government agents, and local elders. The choice of the source of
information was so narrow unlike other studies conducted in Bangladesh, Ghana and
Uganda by Chaudhury et al. (2012) which found a diverse of information sources
which included: radios, newspapers, mobile phones, public announcements at schools
and during religious gatherings, and print media as important channels for receiving
weather forecast information.

The weather forecasting and early warning information should not only be available,
but more importantly it should be understandable, reliable, credible, trusted, relevant,
 68

useful, appropriate and context specific to the users for it to have a positive impact
(World Bank, 2012; Mase and Prokopy, 2014; Winsemius et al., 2014). Fewer
respondents indicated that the information they received was reliable, rather the
majority of respondents indicated that the information was only ‘reliable at times’.

A high percentage (54%) obtained the information from the radio seconded by
traditional forecasters. The respondents reported that radios were easily available to
listen to and weather forecasters were even termed effective and trusted than the
radios. Radios were mentioned to be only reliable at times and rarely do them. It is
vital to point out that the reliability of forecasts is dependent on both the skill of the
forecast and the credibility of the source (Ziervogel et al., 2004). Thus, improving the
generation and presentation of forecasting information and addressing the barriers to
its usage should be coupled by investing in the decision-making context (Coughlan
and Mason, 2014).
 69

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusions

Overall, the observed monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall variability implies that
rainfalls are highly unpredictable and varies across the agroecological zones, and
therefore, the region exhibit non-equilibrium dynamics as described by Ellis and
Galvin (1994) in similar ecosystems. The unpredictable rainfall and temperature trends
in temporal domain, provides the incentives for debating on the rainfall variability in
the arid environment and by extension on climate change. This kind of scientific
information is essential for timely adjustment to extreme climatic events, especially
intermittent droughts that often plague the arid and semi-arid regions.

This study has shown the area is warming at 0.25°C, in the lowland and 1.29°C in the
highlands for the period 1980-2012. The increases in temperature are in line with
community perception on climate change in terms of warmer days, extreme droughts
and increase in temperature. Majority (68%) of the household respondents, who
perceived climate change, indicated that it leads to low crop yield, food insecurity and
decline in crop-productivity. Information on how communities perceive climate
change could lead to a better understanding of possible interventions that suit farmers’
needs and support them to adapt with climate variability and change.

This study has assessed how rainfall and temperature variability have affected the food
situation in West Pokot, tracing the long term data from 1980 to 2012. It has detailed
their perceptions and narrated their past history on local climatic conditions. Empirical
results show that 68% of the respondents feel that the local climate has greatly
changed as compared to before. They termed it as being ‘’bad’’ at the moment. They
talked of frequent dry spells mostly caused by seasonal shifting of the short and long
rains and increased variability of temperatures especially in the low potential zones.
The years they mentioned of being the worst i.e. 2000 and 1984 matched with the past
climate data from the meteorological department which showed low rainfall
 70

experienced in the specified years. Importantly, the degree of impact of climate

variation was higher at the low potential zones followed by medium potential and
finally higher potential zones.

The study has also investigated the agricultural changes that have occurred in West
Pokot during the 40 year era. The study shows that the change in climate has
significant effect on agricultural productivity. This is clearly revealed in the rainfall
variable, however temperature seem not an important variable of climate in
determinants of agricultural productivity in WPC. In addition, this study has provided
considerable evidence to show that for the past 10 years, stable food security in West
Pokot has been difficult to achieve due to the highly variable rainfall variations.
Households have had to fully utilize all potential resources of the area in seeking food
security. For example pure pastoralists have moved to crop farming. For spatial
variability evaluation it was noted that climate variability had effects on increasing
cropland and decreasing wetlands, grassland and forestland. The increased cropland
and decreased grasslands were the most pronounced land-use changes from 1984 to
2010.

5.2 Recommendations

This study has demonstrated that West Pokot County’s vulnerability has been
significantly affected by climate variability and change and attributed by the
respondents’ perspectives. Therefore, integration of indigenous households’
perceptions of climate variability and change with scientific meteorological data on
rainfall and temperature trends are necessary for better planning and targeting of
interventions.

The study area has undergone significant LULC changes some of which may result in
negative impacts on the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services.
For example, the threat of agricultural/cropland expansion is immense. There is a need
to promote intensification of production on existing land holdings to minimize the
 71

increasing demand for virgin land. Promotion of off‐farm income generation activities
can also help reduce overreliance on land. NDVI indices from satellite data can be
used effectively to monitor climatic conditions and relate with food security. NDVI
has been proved to correlate with rainfall received available on a continuous basis and
can be used in monitoring drought on near real time basis as well as in trend analysis.
NDVI data can be applied in both quantitative and qualitative analysis of drought. The
data can be used to assess drought duration, intensity and spatial distribution of
drought conditions hence be useful in drought management.

Nonetheless, it can be noted that the observed NDVI trends in West Pokot County
cannot be exclusively be explained by rainfall anomalies, since there are a number of
human factors that impact of vegetation dynamics including land use land cover
changes. Thus, further research could focus on investigating climate variables and
human-induced factors in vegetation variability, as well as long-term monitoring of
the arid ecosystems.

5.2.1 Recommendations for further research

1. Influence of annual and seasonal rainfall on NDVI trends is explained in this

study, however, it was concluded that the observed vegetation greenness
anomalies in West Pokot County could not exclusively be explained by rainfall
data. Thus, there is need to develop a robust approach that could distinguish
between climate-induced vegetation variability and other anthropogenic factors
in arid environments.
2. The increasing extension of cropland and the resultant reduction in grassland
as coping strategy by the West Pokot community need to be understood better
in terms of socio-economic and ecological sustainably especially with the
challenges of future climate scenarios. Research may also need to investigate
the trade-offs to better understand the effects on other ecosystem services in
West Pokot.
 72

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APPENDICES

Apendix 1: Field questionnaire

1. Please answer each of the following questions as honestly as you can.

2. Your answers will be treated confidential
PART A
Questionnaire No. ………………… Date ……………………..
GENERAL INFORMATION
1. Household member (name) (……………………………….)

2. Address (……………………)

3. Location (………………………) Village (………………………..)

4. Ecozone Masop [ ] Kamas [ ] Temko [ ] Lalwa [ ]

5. Age in years: (……………….)

6. Sex: Male ( ) Female ( )

7. Did you attend school? Yes ( ) No ( )

8. What is the size of your household (……………persons)

9. What is your source of your income? [ ] Farmer[ ] Salaried employment [ ] Business[ ]
Others
10. What is the approximate size of your farm? (……………….Acres)
PART B
1. State the number of years have you lived in this area? (………………..)Years/months
2. Does your household normally undertake crop farming? Yes ( ) No ( )
3. If yes in (2) above, is it done by irrigation or rain fed? Irrigation [ ] Rain fed [ ]
4. What type of crops do you grow in your
area?..................................................................................
5. How has been your production overtime since last year up to now? Increased[ ]
Decreased [ ] Remained the same [ ]
6. Do you have enough food for your household currently? Yes ( ) No ( )
7. Are these foods enough to sustain you? Yes ( ) No ( )
8. What do you think about next year? Will be enough [ ] Will not be enough [ ]
9. Has there been any project targeted at improving the food insecurity condition in your area?
[ ] Yes [ ] No
10. How would you rate the quantity of food in your household?
a. [ ] Very good [ ] Good [ ] very bad [ ] Bad
11. How has climate change affected food production for your household since last year up to
now? [ ] Greatly affected [ ]slightly affected [ ] Did not affect
12. Do you take any measures to reduce your exposure to the impacts of climate change on food
security risk?
a. Yes ( ) No ( )
13. If yes in no.12 above, which measures do you undertake?
 89

14. [ ] Expansion of cultivated land for agro pastoralists [ ] Pay attention to climate forecast/early
warning systems [ ] Acquisition of drought tolerant to plants [ ] Crop cultivation for
pure pastoralists [ ] Migration [ ] Supplementary feeding
[ ] Others (specify)
15. Have you ever accessed any forecast information for the past 12 years for any rainy season?
Yes ( ) No ( )
16. If yes in (15) above, what source of information did you access and how much confidence do
you have in forecasts from the specified source?

Source from which the respondent access Level of confidence in the forecast
Radio
Newspapers
TV
Traditional forecasters
Government extension agents
Local elders/religious elders
NGO extension agents
17. If forecasts about a coming rainy season could be provided reliably, what type of forecast
information will be most useful to you?
[ ] Forecasts about when rains are expected to fall in your area
[ ] Forecasts about when rains are expected to end in your area
[ ] Forecasts about whether the amount of rainfall will be above average, normal or below
average
[ ] Forecasts about the distribution of the rainfall during the season
20. How do you feel the following climate related factors have changed in the past 12 years?

a) The total amount of rainfall per year

Increased a lot Increased Stayed in the same Decreased Decreased a lot

b) Length of growing periods

Much longer Longer Stayed in the same Shorter Much shorter

c) Temperatures
Much hotter Hotter Stayed in the same Cooler Much cooler

d) Incidence of food insecurity

Much more More in secure Stayed in the Less insecure Much less
insecure same insecure

e) Rainfall occurrence
Much more More variable Stayed in the Less variable Much less
variable same variable

PART C
1. How many crop growing seasons do you have in a year for each of the crop type named
below? Answer as 1,2 ,3 or more
CROP TYPE Seasons/Year Specific months in a year
Maize
Beans
Wheat
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Sorghum
Others (specify)

2. Are the above named crops growing seasons regular annually or they have changed over the
years since last year? Regular [ ] Changed [ ]
3. Did your household grow any crops during the last twelve months by season?
4. Which specific years have you ever experienced shift or extended crop growing season?
5. Has the area of your land which was under crop production reduced since 2 years ago?
Yes ( ) No ( )
6. If yes in no.41 above what do you think might have been the reason?
[ ] Converted to livestock keeping [ ] Became marginalized [ ] Became unfertile due to
climate change [ ] Others (specify)………………….
7. How do you obtain enough food for your household when the size of land under crop
production reduces? [ ] buy food [ ] Depend on livestock products [ ] Depend on relief
food [ ] Others (specify)
8. How many hectares of land were under crop production in last year? (……………..) Acres
9. How many hectares of land were under crop production this year? (……………..) Acres
10. In your opinion, what do you think will be the size of your farm in next year? (……………..)
Acres
11. How has the crop yield from your farm been changing overtime since ten years ago?
Increased [ ] Declined [ ] Stable [ ]
12. What is your opinion about the land cover/land use changes in your area in regard to food
security?................................................................................................................................

PART G
Perception questions/ Household Questionnaire

Less
More
1 2 3 4 5
1. Do you understand what is climate change
2. How much do you understand about climate change
3. Do you believe that climate change is taking place
4. Do you believe that climate change has reduced crop
production in your area
5. Do you believe that all people should know something
about climate change
6. Do you believe that food security is changing from
better to worse due to rainfall and temperature changes
7. Do you participate in any activity to adapt to climate
change on food security in your area
8. Do you associate climate change and food shortage
9. Do you believe that problems related to climate change
and food security will be reduced if early warning
measures were communicated in time
10. Do you believe that Government Policy in Kenya
covers issues of global warming?
11. Do you believe that if climate change impacts are not
solved now, the future generations will suffer
12. Do you believe that a degraded and devegatated
environment is not as a result of climate change
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13. Do you believe that climate change has not reduced

crop production in your area
14. Do you believe that only the old people should know
something about climate change
15. Do you believe that food security has improved in
your area overtime
16. Do you belief in the early warning measures to be
accurate
17. Do you belief that the early warnings are useful to you
18. Do you belief that land use/land cover changes is as a
result of climate change
19. Do you agree that the meteorological department
always makes timely the early warnings
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Apendix 2: Photos of selected areas in West Pokot County

A photo of Kapenguria area representing the high potential zones of West Pokot
County

A photo of Chepareria area representing the mid potential zones of West Pokot
County
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A photo of Kacheliba area representing the Low potential zones of West Pokot
County