Carbonates in India

Euromonitor International
December 2020
CARBONATES IN INDIA Passport i

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

KEY DATA FINDINGS.................................................................................................................. 1
2020 IMPACT ............................................................................................................................... 1
COVID-19 hits main carbonates consumption season, lockdown restrictions stifle demand
outside the home ...................................................................................................................... 1
Key players adapt to changing demand trends arising from COVID-19.................................... 1
Coca-Cola and Pepsi extend ranges in challenging environment, smaller players see some
share gains ............................................................................................................................... 1
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES .......................................................................................... 2
Health factors to become increasingly important ...................................................................... 2
Players in carbonates seek tax reduction ................................................................................. 2
Small local players benefit from familiarity with local consumers’ preferences ......................... 2
CATEGORY DATA ....................................................................................................................... 2
Table 1 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: Volume 2015-2020 .................. 2
Table 2 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: Value 2015-2020 ..................... 3
Table 3 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: % Volume Growth 2015-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 3
Table 4 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: % Value Growth 2015-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 3
Table 5 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Volume 2015-2020 ................. 3
Table 6 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Value 2015-2020 .................... 4
Table 7 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 4
Table 8 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Value Growth 2015-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 4
Table 9 Leading Flavours for Non-cola Carbonates: % Volume 2015-2020 ............. 5
Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Volume 2016-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 5
Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Volume 2017-2020 ............ 5
Table 12 NBO Company Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Value 2016-2020 ......... 6
Table 13 LBN Brand Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Value 2017-2020 ............... 6
Table 14 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Volume 2020-
2025 ............................................................................................................. 7
Table 15 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Value 2020-
2025 ............................................................................................................. 7
Table 16 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Volume
Growth 2020-2025 ....................................................................................... 7
Table 17 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Value Growth
2020-2025 .................................................................................................... 8

© Euromonitor International
CARBONATES IN INDIA Passport 1

CARBONATES IN INDIA
KEY DATA FINDINGS
▪ Lockdown restrictions hit hard due to high proportion of consumption taking place outside the
home
▪ In 2020 off-trade sales of carbonates see value and volume growth of 5% and 3% to reach
INR190.1 billion and 4.1 billion litres respectively
▪ On-trade sales see volume growth of -17% in 2020 to stand at 2.1 billion litres
▪ Off-trade value sales concentrated between Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd and PepsiCo India
Holdings Pvt Ltd, holding steady value shares of 48% and 29% respectively in 2020
▪ Carbonates category set to see off-trade value and volume CAGRs of 9% and 7% over
forecast period to stand at INR298.0 billion and 5.8 billion litres respectively in 2025

2020 IMPACT

COVID-19 hits main carbonates consumption season, lockdown

restrictions stifle demand outside the home
While maintaining a positive performance in 2020, the carbonates category in India
nonetheless saw a considerable reduction in growth rates compared with 2019. The April-June
quarter sees the greatest demand for carbonates in India. This, in conjunction with the fact that
most consumption of carbonates in India occurs on the go or outside the home, and at a time
when a significant number of foodservice outlets were not operational, only served to complicate
the situation, and significantly reduced the potential for sales. The limited shelf life of
carbonates, which is three months, also made existing stocks vulnerable during lockdown, and
this had a major impact on the bottom line of players in the category.

Key players adapt to changing demand trends arising from COVID-19

To tap into rural demand and in-home consumption, Pepsi and Coca-Cola partnered with
Common Services Centres (CSC) to list their food products on the Grameen e-Store.
Companies are addressing the need for last mile delivery to these rural areas, as demand has
increased due to multiple factors, including reverse migration. There will be diversification as
consumers continue to prefer fruit-based beverages over the synthetic alternatives. In line with
the trend, a lot of companies are coming up with fruit-based carbonated beverages. For
example, Parle Agro has already launched B-Fizz – a malt-flavoured carbonated apple drink – in
anticipation of demand for such products.

Coca-Cola and Pepsi extend ranges in challenging environment,

smaller players see some share gains
Company value shares remained largely unchanged in the carbonates category in 2020,
although smaller players did make some gains as consumers sought cheaper products. Despite
this, Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd and PepsiCo India Holdings Pvt Ltd remained dominant, with all
other individual players holding negligible shares. Towards the end of the review period both of
the leading players continued to expand their product ranges in an effort to adapt to changing
trends. Coca-Cola launched new brands, such as Rimzim, and new variants, such as Thums Up
Charged. Meanwhile, PepsiCo adopted a similar strategy through launches such as the

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CARBONATES IN INDIA Passport 2

sparkling variant of its Slice brand. Both companies were focusing on the development of low-
calorie and reduced-sugar drinks to attract the growing number of health-conscious consumers.

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Health factors to become increasingly important

Over the last few years, the leading players have expanded their ‘zero’ or low-calorie
portfolios in India. Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Coca-Cola was planning to reduce the
sugar content of a 330ml can to 6g from 35g. Now, during the pandemic, as consumers place
more importance on their health than ever, it is imperative that companies reduce the sugar
content of their products, or expand their zero- or low-calorie portfolios. In light of COVID-19 and
increasing awareness of the importance of obesity in terms of the severity of the disease, health
awareness and weight loss will become increasingly important factors influencing consumers’
purchasing decisions.

Players in carbonates seek tax reduction

The Indian Beverage Association (IBA) has requested the government remove aerated
beverages from the sin tax category. Currently, a tax of 40% (28% GST and 12% compensation
cess) is levied on these beverages. At a time when the industry is expected to contract
significantly as a result of the pandemic, companies feel that the tax is discriminatory, as other
categories of products containing sugar, including ice creams and chocolate products, do not
face an additional 12% compensation tax. In a price-sensitive environment, particularly following
the COVID-19 pandemic, a 12% reduction in tax would be highly beneficial if passed on to
consumers.

Small local players benefit from familiarity with local consumers’

preferences
In the past, numerous regional companies have eroded the shares of the larger players.
These regional competitors have obviously grown more rapidly than the likes of Pepsi and
Coca-Cola, primarily due to their lower base, but also because they cater to a regional taste.
India is a vast country, with different consumer profiles and taste preferences in every state.
There is already evidence of hyper-localisation being implemented by these larger players, and
now demand has contracted as a result of COVID-19, we might see more product launches
catering to consumer preferences in a particular state or region. With the economic impact of
the pandemic, consumers may be increasingly attracted to lower-priced products, representing
a further competitive advantage for the smaller players able to meet local consumers’ particular
requirements.

CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: Volume 2015-2020

million litres
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Off-trade 3,003.8 3,213.7 3,386.3 3,674.0 3,982.0 4,080.3

On-trade 1,985.6 2,102.6 2,199.2 2,355.0 2,532.8 2,107.9
Total 4,989.5 5,316.3 5,585.5 6,029.0 6,514.9 6,188.3

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CARBONATES IN INDIA Passport 3

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 2 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: Value 2015-2020

INR million
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Off-trade 128,347.4 139,218.4 149,369.8 165,210.4 181,944.0 190,149.7

On-trade 164,053.9 177,693.4 190,334.6 207,702.4 228,066.4 194,900.8
Total 292,401.4 316,911.8 339,704.4 372,912.8 410,010.4 385,050.5
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 3 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: % Volume Growth 2015-2020

% volume growth
2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Off-trade 2.5 6.3 35.8

On-trade -16.8 1.2 6.2
Total -5.0 4.4 24.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 4 Off-trade vs On-trade Sales of Carbonates: % Value Growth 2015-2020

% constant value growth

2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Off-trade 4.5 8.2 48.2

On-trade -14.5 3.5 18.8
Total -6.1 5.7 31.7
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 5 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Volume 2015-2020

million litres
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cola Carbonates 1,147.8 1,171.1 1,195.9 1,267.4 1,336.9 1,350.9

- Low Calorie Cola 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.2
Carbonates
- Regular Cola Carbonates 1,140.3 1,163.5 1,188.2 1,259.5 1,328.8 1,342.7
Non-Cola Carbonates 1,856.0 2,042.6 2,190.4 2,406.6 2,645.1 2,729.5
- Lemonade/Lime 1,075.0 1,218.4 1,338.8 1,485.2 1,649.2 1,702.8
- Ginger Ale 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
- Tonic Water/Other 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Bitters
- Orange Carbonates 439.9 463.2 472.5 507.5 543.5 559.7
- Other Non-Cola 340.7 360.5 378.6 413.4 452.0 466.4
Carbonates
Carbonates 3,003.8 3,213.7 3,386.3 3,674.0 3,982.0 4,080.3

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CARBONATES IN INDIA Passport 4

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 6 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Value 2015-2020

INR million
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cola Carbonates 43,081.0 44,753.4 45,744.4 49,291.8 52,449.7 53,839.0

- Low Calorie Cola 413.0 428.1 435.6 450.9 463.7 470.0
Carbonates
- Regular Cola Carbonates 42,668.1 44,325.3 45,308.8 48,840.9 51,986.1 53,369.0
Non-Cola Carbonates 85,266.4 94,465.0 103,625.4 115,918.6 129,494.2 136,310.6
- Lemonade/Lime 53,908.5 59,951.7 66,678.3 74,819.7 83,985.1 88,054.6
- Ginger Ale 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.1
- Tonic Water/Other 72.8 78.1 82.1 87.6 92.5 95.7
Bitters
- Orange Carbonates 16,972.8 18,373.1 18,943.3 20,901.9 22,830.3 24,100.8
- Other Non-Cola 14,303.3 16,052.6 17,911.5 20,098.5 22,574.7 24,047.4
Carbonates
Carbonates 128,347.4 139,218.4 149,369.8 165,210.4 181,944.0 190,149.7
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 7 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020

% volume growth
2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Cola Carbonates 1.0 3.3 17.7

- Low Calorie Cola Carbonates 0.2 1.7 8.8
- Regular Cola Carbonates 1.1 3.3 17.8
Non-Cola Carbonates 3.2 8.0 47.1
- Lemonade/Lime 3.2 9.6 58.4
- Ginger Ale 0.2 3.3 17.7
- Tonic Water/Other Bitters 0.3 2.6 13.8
- Orange Carbonates 3.0 4.9 27.2
- Other Non-Cola Carbonates 3.2 6.5 36.9
Carbonates 2.5 6.3 35.8
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 8 Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020

% current value growth

2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Cola Carbonates 2.6 4.6 25.0

- Low Calorie Cola Carbonates 1.4 2.6 13.8
- Regular Cola Carbonates 2.7 4.6 25.1
Non-Cola Carbonates 5.3 9.8 59.9
- Lemonade/Lime 4.8 10.3 63.3
- Ginger Ale 4.0 6.1 34.2
- Tonic Water/Other Bitters 3.5 5.6 31.6
- Orange Carbonates 5.6 7.3 42.0
- Other Non-Cola Carbonates 6.5 10.9 68.1

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CARBONATES IN INDIA Passport 5

Carbonates 4.5 8.2 48.2

Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 9 Leading Flavours for Non-cola Carbonates: % Volume 2015-2020

% retail volume
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Lemon 65.1 67.2 69.9 71.1 71.3 71.2

Orange 28.9 27.8 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2
Other Flavours 6.0 5.0 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Volume 2016-2020

% off-trade volume
Company 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 55.0 53.7 54.7 55.9 56.0

PepsiCo India Holdings 32.6 32.0 32.4 33.1 32.9
Pvt Ltd
Parle Agro Pvt Ltd 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Others 12.2 14.0 12.7 10.7 10.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Volume 2017-2020

% off-trade volume
Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sprite (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 17.4 18.7 19.9 20.1
Co, The)
Thums Up (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 15.5 15.2 14.8 14.6
Co, The)
Mountain Dew PepsiCo India Holdings 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2
(PepsiCo Inc) Pvt Ltd
Limca (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 7.0 7.3 8.0 8.1
Co, The)
7-Up (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.0
Pvt Ltd
Coca-Cola (Coca- Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3
Cola Co, The)
Pepsi (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.0
Pvt Ltd
Mirinda (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9
Pvt Ltd
Fanta (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7
Co, The)
Nimbooz by 7-Up PepsiCo India Holdings 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
(PepsiCo Inc) Pvt Ltd

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Appy Parle Agro Pvt Ltd 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Diet Coke (Coca- Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Cola Co, The)
Duke's (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Pvt Ltd
Diet Pepsi (PepsiCo PepsiCo India Holdings 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Inc) Pvt Ltd
Others Others 14.1 12.7 10.7 10.9
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 12 NBO Company Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Value 2016-2020

% off-trade value rsp

Company 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 48.3 46.4 47.4 47.9 47.8

PepsiCo India Holdings 28.5 27.6 28.7 29.4 29.1
Pvt Ltd
Parle Agro Pvt Ltd 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Others 23.0 25.8 23.7 22.4 22.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 13 LBN Brand Shares of Off-trade Carbonates: % Value 2017-2020

% off-trade value rsp

Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sprite (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 14.8 15.8 16.7 16.7
Co, The)
Thums Up (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 13.3 13.1 12.6 12.5
Co, The)
Mountain Dew PepsiCo India Holdings 9.2 9.9 10.6 10.5
(PepsiCo Inc) Pvt Ltd
Limca (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.7
Co, The)
7-Up (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.4
Pvt Ltd
Coca-Cola (Coca- Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3
Cola Co, The)
Pepsi (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.0
Pvt Ltd
Mirinda (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Pvt Ltd
Fanta (Coca-Cola Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Co, The)
Nimbooz by 7-Up PepsiCo India Holdings 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
(PepsiCo Inc) Pvt Ltd
Appy Parle Agro Pvt Ltd 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Diet Coke (Coca- Coca-Cola India Pvt Ltd 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Cola Co, The)
Duke's (PepsiCo Inc) PepsiCo India Holdings 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Pvt Ltd
Diet Pepsi (PepsiCo PepsiCo India Holdings 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

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Inc) Pvt Ltd

Others Others 25.8 23.7 22.5 22.9
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 14 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Volume 2020-2025

million litres
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Cola Carbonates 1,350.9 1,436.0 1,493.5 1,562.8 1,637.0 1,715.6

- Low Calorie Cola 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.5
Carbonates
- Regular Cola Carbonates 1,342.7 1,427.6 1,484.8 1,553.9 1,627.8 1,706.1
Non-Cola Carbonates 2,729.5 2,954.3 3,198.8 3,466.4 3,760.4 4,072.4
- Lemonade/Lime 1,702.8 1,855.2 2,016.9 2,191.4 2,386.9 2,596.2
- Ginger Ale 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
- Tonic Water/Other 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Bitters
- Orange Carbonates 559.7 597.2 635.7 679.5 725.2 772.7
- Other Non-Cola 466.4 501.5 545.6 595.0 647.7 702.9
Carbonates
Carbonates 4,080.3 4,390.4 4,692.3 5,029.2 5,397.4 5,788.0
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 15 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: Value 2020-2025

INR million
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Cola Carbonates 53,839.0 55,824.5 56,755.7 57,944.6 59,175.4 60,474.3

- Low Calorie Cola 470.0 473.0 472.3 472.2 472.5 473.6
Carbonates
- Regular Cola Carbonates 53,369.0 55,351.5 56,283.4 57,472.4 58,702.9 60,000.6
Non-Cola Carbonates 136,310.6 144,178.2 152,348.7 160,822.2 170,270.7 180,013.2
- Lemonade/Lime 88,054.6 93,297.2 98,442.2 103,510.0 109,378.6 115,390.1
- Ginger Ale 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5
- Tonic Water/Other 95.7 96.9 98.3 99.6 101.1 102.7
Bitters
- Orange Carbonates 24,100.8 25,240.3 26,330.7 27,638.1 28,996.5 30,336.6
- Other Non-Cola 24,047.4 25,531.3 27,464.9 29,561.4 31,781.2 34,170.4
Carbonates
Carbonates 190,149.7 200,002.6 209,104.4 218,766.8 229,446.0 240,487.5
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 16 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-

2025

% volume growth
2020/21 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total

Cola Carbonates 6.3 4.9 27.0

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- Low Calorie Cola Carbonates 3.7 3.0 16.1

- Regular Cola Carbonates 6.3 4.9 27.1
Non-Cola Carbonates 8.2 8.3 49.2
- Lemonade/Lime 9.0 8.8 52.5
- Ginger Ale 3.2 3.0 16.0
- Tonic Water/Other Bitters 2.4 2.5 13.3
- Orange Carbonates 6.7 6.7 38.0
- Other Non-Cola Carbonates 7.5 8.5 50.7
Carbonates 7.6 7.2 41.9
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

Table 17 Forecast Off-trade Sales of Carbonates by Category: % Value Growth 2020-

2025

% constant value growth

2020/2021 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total

Cola Carbonates 3.7 2.4 12.3

- Low Calorie Cola Carbonates 0.6 0.2 0.8
- Regular Cola Carbonates 3.7 2.4 12.4
Non-Cola Carbonates 5.8 5.7 32.1
- Lemonade/Lime 6.0 5.6 31.0
- Ginger Ale 2.4 2.2 11.4
- Tonic Water/Other Bitters 1.2 1.4 7.2
- Orange Carbonates 4.7 4.7 25.9
- Other Non-Cola Carbonates 6.2 7.3 42.1
Carbonates 5.2 4.8 26.5
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources

© Euromonitor International