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S1 Binomial Distribution & Hypothesis Testing 1 QP

1. A drug cures 78% of patients on average. The probabilities of exactly 19 or at most 18 patients being cured out of 20 given the drug are calculated. The expected number of patients cured is also calculated. A hypothesis test is conducted to determine if a new drug cures more patients than the old drug, finding that 19 of 20 patients were cured by the new drug at the 1% significance level. 2. On average, 85% of tomato seeds germinate. The probabilities of 12 or fewer than 12 seeds germinating out of 15 sown are calculated. Hypothesis tests are conducted on seeds that are one year old to determine if their germination rate is lower, finding results that do

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72 views2 pages

S1 Binomial Distribution & Hypothesis Testing 1 QP

1. A drug cures 78% of patients on average. The probabilities of exactly 19 or at most 18 patients being cured out of 20 given the drug are calculated. The expected number of patients cured is also calculated. A hypothesis test is conducted to determine if a new drug cures more patients than the old drug, finding that 19 of 20 patients were cured by the new drug at the 1% significance level. 2. On average, 85% of tomato seeds germinate. The probabilities of 12 or fewer than 12 seeds germinating out of 15 sown are calculated. Hypothesis tests are conducted on seeds that are one year old to determine if their germination rate is lower, finding results that do

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1 A drug for treating a particular minor illness cures, on average, 78% of patients.

Twenty people with this


minor illness are selected at random and treated with the drug.

(i) (A ) Find the probability that exactly 19 patients are cured. [3]
(B ) Find the probability that at most 18 patients are cured. [3]
(C ) Find the expected number of patients who are cured. [1]

(ii) A pharmaceutical company is trialling a new drug to treat this illness. Researchers at the company
hope that a higher percentage of patients will be cured when given this new drug. Twenty patients are
selected at random, and given the new drug. Of these, 19 are cured. Carry out a hypothesis test at the
1% significance level to investigate whether there is any evidence to suggest that the new drug is more
effective than the old one. [8]

(iii) If the researchers had chosen to carry out the hypothesis test at the 5% significance level, what would
the result have been? Justify your answer. [2]

2 It is known that on average 85% of seeds of a particular variety of tomato will germinate. Ramesh selects
15 of these seeds at random and sows them.

(i) (A) Find the probability that exactly 12 germinate. [3]


(B) Find the probability that fewer than 12 germinate [2]

The following year Ramesh finds that he still has many seeds left. Because the seeds are now one year old,
he suspects that the germination rate will be lower. He conducts a trial by randomly selecting n of these
seeds and sowing them. He then carries out a hypothesis test at the 1% significance level to investigate
whether he is correct.

(ii) Write down suitable null and alternative hypotheses for the test. Give a reason for your choice of
alternative hypothesis. [4]

(iii) In a trial with n = 20, Ramesh finds that 13 seeds germinate. Carry out the test. [4]

(iv) Suppose instead that Ramesh conducts the trial with n = 50, and finds that 33 seeds germinate. Given
that the critical value for the test in this case is 35, complete the test. [3]

(v) If n is small, there is no point in carrying out the test at the 1% significance level, as the null hypothesis
cannot be rejected however many seeds germinate. Find the least value of n for which the null
hypothesis can be rejected, quoting appropriate probabilities to justify your answer. [3]

PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
3 At a dog show, three out of eleven dogs are to be selected for a national competition.

(i) Find the number of possible selections. [2]

(ii) Five of the eleven dogs are terriers. Assuming that the dogs are selected at random, find the probability
that at least two of the three dogs selected for the national competition are terriers. [5]

PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

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