The document discusses the potential for ethanol production to revitalize the sugar industry in India. It notes that historically sugar production has exceeded consumption, creating surpluses and volatile market conditions. The government is now strongly promoting ethanol blending in fuels up to 20% by 2025. This roadmap calls for using 6 million tons of surplus sugar and 16 million tons of damaged grains per year for ethanol production. It aims to soak up excess sugar stocks and provide farmers and the industry with more stable incomes through remunerative ethanol prices. The plan could help reduce carbon emissions in line with India's climate commitments as well.
The document discusses the potential for ethanol production to revitalize the sugar industry in India. It notes that historically sugar production has exceeded consumption, creating surpluses and volatile market conditions. The government is now strongly promoting ethanol blending in fuels up to 20% by 2025. This roadmap calls for using 6 million tons of surplus sugar and 16 million tons of damaged grains per year for ethanol production. It aims to soak up excess sugar stocks and provide farmers and the industry with more stable incomes through remunerative ethanol prices. The plan could help reduce carbon emissions in line with India's climate commitments as well.
The document discusses the potential for ethanol production to revitalize the sugar industry in India. It notes that historically sugar production has exceeded consumption, creating surpluses and volatile market conditions. The government is now strongly promoting ethanol blending in fuels up to 20% by 2025. This roadmap calls for using 6 million tons of surplus sugar and 16 million tons of damaged grains per year for ethanol production. It aims to soak up excess sugar stocks and provide farmers and the industry with more stable incomes through remunerative ethanol prices. The plan could help reduce carbon emissions in line with India's climate commitments as well.
The document discusses the potential for ethanol production to revitalize the sugar industry in India. It notes that historically sugar production has exceeded consumption, creating surpluses and volatile market conditions. The government is now strongly promoting ethanol blending in fuels up to 20% by 2025. This roadmap calls for using 6 million tons of surplus sugar and 16 million tons of damaged grains per year for ethanol production. It aims to soak up excess sugar stocks and provide farmers and the industry with more stable incomes through remunerative ethanol prices. The plan could help reduce carbon emissions in line with India's climate commitments as well.
USD 2 Billion capital investment shall go for capacity expansion
ETHANOL INVESTMENT - ENCOURAGING POLICY IN PLACE
▪ INTEREST SUBVENITON ON NEW ETHANOL PROJECTS
▪ FASTER ENVIRONMENT CLEARANCE – FASTER NEW PROJECTS
▪ A BIG SUPPORT FROM GOVT. (GOVT WORKING FASTER THEN PRIVATE SECTOR)
▪ ETHANOL PRICES ARE DECLARED KEEPING SUGAR PRICES IN MIND - DIFFERENT PRICES FOR B-MOLASSES AND FOR SUGAR CANE JUICE ETHANOL AS PER SUGAR SACRIFICED
▪ DIRECTION TO OIL MARKETING COMPANIES TO BUY ALL AVAILABLE ETHANOL – FRAMEWORK FOR LONG TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENT
▪ FREEER (NOT FREE) MOVEMENT OF MOLASSES AND ETHANOL WITHIN INDIA
▪ NEW NATIONAL BIOFUEL POLICY TO ACHIEVE 20% EBP BY 2025
ETHANOL PRICES IN LAST 3 YEARS
70 7.0% % Change 60 6.0% SOURCE 18/19 19/20 20/21 6.2% from 19/20 50 5.0% 5.3% 40 4.0% SUGARCANE JUICE 59.19 59.48 62.65 5.3% 4.3% 30 3.0% B HEAVY MOLASSES 52.43 54.27 57.61 6.2% 20 2.0%
10 1.0% C MOLASSES 43.46 43.75 45.64 4.3% 0 0.0% SUGARCANE JUICE B HEAVY MOLASSES C MOLASSES 18/19 19/20 20/21 % INC SOME UNANSWERED QUESTIONS SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION AND DEMAND ESCALATION
SUPPLY CHAIN SHALL COPE – INVESTMENT IN TANKER CAPACITY , MOVEMENT BY RAIL, PIPELINES INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIRED AT BLENDING STATIONS FLEX FUEL AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION
FLEX FUEL AUTOMOBILE?
COMPETITION FROM OTHER
ENERGY? TAKE AWAYS
▪ CLEAR ROAD MAP WITH TARGETTED APPROACH ON ETHANOL BLEND PROGRAM
▪ ETHANOL SHALL SOAK UP SUGAR SURPLUS
▪ REAL ACTION IS SEEN ON THE GROUND
▪ 6 STATES HAVE ACHIEVED 10% EBP, PLAN ARE IN PLACE TO COVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY, E12 FOR SURPLUS STATES
▪ E-10,12,15,20 , 100 EBP SPECS ARE IN PLACE
▪ STRONG PUSH FOR FLEXI FUEL CARS
PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL MARKETS 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 3500.0 Mar-13 4000.0 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 INDIAN & WORLD SUGAR PRICES TREND
Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 KOLHAPUR S WITH SUBSIDY
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 NY 11
Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 BRAZIL PRODUCTION UNDER STRESS : BRAZILIAN WEATHER (RAINFALL)
• ABOVE MAPS SHOWING REDUCTION CUMULATIVE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY FROM MAY – JUN.
• AVG VARIANCE IN RAIN SHOWING REDUCTION FROM -25% TO -50% DURING MAY – JUNE, CAUSING ADVERSE EFFECT OF HEAT STRESS ON CROP. GLOBAL SUGAR BALANCE SHEET VS NY PRICE 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
01-09-2018 GLOBAL PRICES DRIVING FORCES – CRUDE PRICES
01-12-2018 01-03-2019 01-06-2019 01-09-2019 01-12-2019 01-03-2020 01-06-2020 01-09-2020 01-12-2020 01-03-2021 01-06-2021 WORLD PRICES SHALL FOLLOW INDIA WHAT TO EXPECT – A MEDIUM TERM PERSPECTIVE
• FAVORABLE INTERANTIONAL SCENARIO
• FAVORIABLE DOMESTIC SCENARIO
• SUGAR SECTOR SHALL BECOME EVEN MORE EFFICIENT. AGRICULTURE YIELDS AND RECOVERY SHALL INCREASE FURTHER.
• COMPANIES WITH HIGHER ETHANOL CAPACITY SHALL HAVE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OVER OTHERS.
• ETHANOL INVESTMENT SHALL BE REQUIRED FROM COOPERATIVE SECTOR TOO:
• CLUSTER APPROACH – A FEW SUGAR MILLS HAVE ONE DISTILLERY
• MULTIFEED PLANTS – SUGARCANE JUICE DURING CRUSH SEASONS, GRAINS DURING OFF SEASON
• ETHANOL PROGRAM HAS A DEFINITE INSTITUTIOANL FRAMEWORK AND SHALL CONTINUE TO STAY . IN THE END INDER WAVE
