FINC110 Risk & Return in Portfolio - Part A
FINC110 Risk & Return in Portfolio - Part A
FINC110 Risk & Return in Portfolio - Part A
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Dilip Shangvi (Shangvi), founder of Indian pharmaceutical giant Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Ltd. (Sun Pharma), had invested his personal wealth in several companies. Some of his major
investments were Rs 250 million in Natco Pharma Limited (Natco Pharma), and Rs 18 billion in
Pune-based Suzlon Energy Ltd. (Suzlon). Shangvi held a 60.8 % stake in Sun Pharma and received
more than Rs 12 billion as dividend from his shares between 2010 and 2015. The case discusses
his investments using a risk return framework.
The case (Part A) considers Shangvi as a marginal investor and attempts to understand the risk of
his investments in Suzlon and Natco Pharma based on the historical data of monthly returns
between 2010 and 2015.
Part B of the case attempts to understand the systematic risk in Shangvi’s investments (Suzlon and
Natco Pharma).
INTRODUCTION
On February 14, 2015, Dilip Shangvi (Shangvi), founder of Indian pharmaceutical giant Sun
Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Sun Pharma), announced that he would buy a 23 percent stake in
Pune-based Suzlon Energy Ltd. (Suzlon) for Rs 18 billioni. Shangvi held a 60.8 percent stake in
Sun Pharma and had received more than Rs 12 billion as dividend between 2010 and 2015. He had
earlier invested his personal wealth in several companies like Bio- Light Sciences1, where he
bought an 11 percent stake for Rs 140 million, and Natco Pharma Limited (Natco Pharma)2, in
which he bought a 3.5 percent stakeii for Rs 250 million in 2011. His investment in Suzlon was the
largest he had ever made and the only one in a company which was not in the pharmaceutical
industry.
Suzlon, a manufacturer of wind turbines and an end-to-end turnkey engineering, procurement, and
construction player in the wind energy space, was founded by Tulsi Tanti (Tanti) in 1995. In a
span of 20 years, the company grew into a global supplier of turbines with customers in 32
countries. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, Suzlon’s debt funded growth strategy failed
and, by 2015, the company had accumulated a huge debt of Rs 160 billion. Under the deal with
Shangvi, Suzlon was to allot 10 million preferential shares to the members of Shangvi’s family and
to the companies owned by him, collectively giving them a 23 percent share in the company.
However, the control of Suzlon would remain with the Tanti family. Post acquisition, Tanti and
promoters would have a stake of 24 percent.
1
Bio- Light Sciences is an Israeli investment company specializing in the Life Sciences sector.
2
Natco Pharma is an Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical company incorporated in 1981.
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According to analysts, Shangvi’s investment would diversify his portfolio for managing risks
compared to returns from his investments in pharma companies (Bio- Light Sciences and Natco
Pharma). According to Shangvi, his investment in Suzlon was justified by the fact that the
company had good potential in the renewable energy market besides a good management team.
“This financial investment is in sync with the PM’s long term vision and immense potential of the
renewable energy market. While we believe Suzlon has the potential to emerge as a global leader
in the renewable energy space from India, it will take substantial and sustained effort on part of the
management team to achieve a significant operating performance improvement. We have strong
faith in the leadership of Tanti to achieve this and will continue as financial investors,”iii said
Shangvi. He also confirmed his collaboration with Suzlon to develop a 450 MW wind farm
through a 50-50 joint venture and said he would help the company in raising non-fund working
capital for projects.
Sudhir Valia (Valia), Shangvi’s brother-in-law, said the family was not viewing the investment as
an entry into the renewable energy space by trying to go in for an acquisition; it was just a
financial investment to deploy family money. According to Valia, Shangvi had received more than
Rs 12 billion as dividend from Sun Pharma between 2010 and 2015 and was looking for an avenue
to invest the moneyiv. “Suzlon is the largest renewable energy company in India and it was a
natural choice for a safe long-term investment,” said Valia.
Shangvi’s investment in Suzlon (23% Stake)
Suzlon was founded by Tulsi Tanti (Tanti) in 1995. Tanti built the company up from scratch into
one of the largest wind turbine makers globally with a wind power generation capacity of 26,000
MW, within a span of 20 years. The growth of the company was mostly fuelled by the acquisition
of companies abroad and from debt raised internationally.
In 2006, the company acquired Belgian wind turbine gear box manufacturing firm, Hansen
Transmissions International NV, for 431 million Euros. In 2007, Suzlon bought a majority stake in
German wind turbine maker Senvion, and progressively increased its stake over the next four years
to buy out the company. Senvion gave Suzlon much needed technology that was new and better
than its existing technology especially in the offshore wind energy space, and greater access to
international markets. (The German company was contributing approximately 73 percent to the
revenues of Suzlon by 2014v).
Till the financial year 2007-08, Suzlon was a profit making company. However, after the 2008
financial crisis, the demand from renewable energy dried up. There was reduced demand for wind
turbines even from international clients. The liquidity crunch caused by the crisis lasted for a few
years. In 2008, the company reported a profit of Rs 10.17 billion on a turnover of Rs 136.79
billion. In 2009, Suzlon reported a profit of Rs 2.36 billion and in 2010, the company reported a
loss of Rs 9.820 billion. Over the next five years – between 2010 and 2015 – Suzlon’s losses
increased 10 times to Rs 91.57 billion. Its turnover during the same period went down marginally
by 3.7 percent to Rs 199.54 billion.
Suzlon had borrowed money from the European markets to finance the acquisition of Senvion, but
after the 2008 financial crisis, the company had to transfer the debt to India. In the process, the
cost of borrowing went up drastically and it became tough for the company to repay as the demand
for turbines had slowed down in emerging markets, including India, after the crisis.
In 2007, Suzlon also raised five-year FCCBs of US$ 300 million to finance the expansion of its
projects in India. However, with the demand for turbines falling after the 2008 crisis, the company
failed to generate enough money to repay the debt. In June 2012, the company managed to borrow
money from a consortium of lenders led by State Bank of India (SBI) to repay only US$ 92 million
as the FCCBs neared maturity. Suzlon defaulted on redemption of debt worth US$ 208 million
after hectic negotiations with the bondholders in October 2012.
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In January 2013, Suzlon went in for Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR). In the restructuring, the
debt related to Senvion was refinanced through a credit enhancement bond issued by Suzlon,
backed by a letter of credit from SBI. The company again raised US$ 647 million in March 2013.
The company was also successful in restructuring the FCCBs with bondholders in May 2014. The
principal value of Suzlon’s outstanding FCCBs was US$ 575.7 million. However, after the
restructuring agreement, the company was liable to pay US$ 28.8 million in April 2016 and the
remaining in July 2019. The price for conversion of the FCCBs into equity shares was pegged at
Rs 15.46 per share. Since Suzlon’s bondholders had a significant upside in converting their bonds
into shares with the company’s stock price above the conversion price, around US$ 248.1 million
worth of FCCBs were converted into equity shares of the company till July 31, 2015. As a result,
FCCBs worth US$327.6 million were left to be repaid.
By 2015, the business environment in India had changed and incentives for renewable energy
companies were back, with the newly elected government giving importance to energy from
renewable sources. Tanti realized that he would not be able to take advantage of the new business
opportunity that the Indian market presented unless the debt was reduced. In January 2015, he
announced that Senvion had been sold to US private Equity firm Center Bridge for 1 billion Euros.
As a result of the deal, Suzlon managed to reduce its debt by 50 percent to Rs 70.1 billion at the
end of June 2015 (excluding FCCBs). According to P Pradeep Kumar, managing director and
group executive at SBI, “Tanti’s initial plan was to take Senvion public and dilute his stake in the
company by around 30 percent. While this may have yielded Tanti a better valuation for his stake,
it would have been a time-consuming process. Suzlon’s lenders convinced Tanti to sell Senvion at
one go because cash was king.”vi
Shangvi bought a 23 percent stake in Suzlon for Rs 18 billion on February 15, 2015. He said in an
interview, “We saw great potential in Suzlon’s business fundamentals due to its world class
technology and R&D capabilities. Now that Senvion has been sold off, Suzlon’s debt has become
manageable. We believe Suzlon has the potential to become a global leader again.” vii
Shangvi’s investment in Natco Pharma (3.5 % stake)
Located in Hyderabad, South India, Natco Pharma was incorporated in 1981 and became a public
company in July 1992. Promoted by VC Nannapaneni, the company was focused on research,
development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical drugs for the Indian and
international markets. Natco achieved high success in the initial days of its business and by 1994
was ranked 82nd among the Indian pharmaceutical companies.
Since 2007, the company had grown at 21 percent annually and held a decent market share in the
generic oncology space in the domestic market. It had a strong pipeline for niche products in the
US market. Natco’s consolidated revenue for the year 2014-15 was Rs 8.4 billion and its profit
before taxes was Rs. 1.34 billion.
According to analysts, the market was waiting for the launch of a generic equivalent of Israel-
based pharma company Teva’s multibillion dollar drug, Copaxone, and they believed that even
though Natco would be the second to launch the drug in the market, it could grab a good chunk of
market share if it received US FDA approval.
In December 2011, Dilip Shangvi bought a 3.5 percent stake in Natco Pharma for Rs 250 million
(approximately).
Shangvi, son of a pharmaceutical wholesaler, was born in Kolkata in 1955. He completed his
Bachelor’s degree in commerce from Bhawanipur Education Society College, Kolkata. In 1982, at
the age of 27, Shangvi moved to Mumbai and started Sun Pharma with a capital of Rs 10,000. In
1983, he started his own manufacturing firm in Vapi, Gujarat, with 5 employees. Shangvi initially
focused on a few niche products like psychiatric and neurological drugs. Four years later, the
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company started selling its drugs across India. In 1989, Sun Pharma started exporting products to
neighboring countries and gained tremendous success. It started its own research center in 1991
and, in 1994, it went in for an initial public offering.
Shangvi grew the company at an unprecedented speed, mostly by acquiring good companies in
poor condition. By 1996, Sun Pharma had operations in 24 countries. Nineteen acquisitions and
joint ventures followed, both in India and abroad. One of the notable acquisitions was gaining a
controlling stake in Israeli drug maker Taro Pharmaceutical Industries in 2010. The acquisition
strengthened Sun Pharma’s position in key markets like the US, Canada, and Israel. In April 2014,
Sun Pharma acquired Ranbaxy for $4 billion.
Shangvi held a majority stake in Sun Pharma and considered himself more a manager than a
leader. According to analysts, he believed in letting experts and professionals manage his
companies. Devan Choksey, Managing Director of KR Choksey Securities, said in an interview,
“His biggest asset is people management, and he has followed a very simple path.”viii On March
04, 2015, with a net worth of US$21.8 billion, Shangvi dethroned Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of
Reliance Industries, to become the richest Indian.
Shangvi had gained the reputation of a white knight for companies in trouble. However, all his
investments had been mostly in pharma companies, as pharma was his area of expertise. His
investment in Suzlon was the only exception. According to analysts, Shangvi’s investment in
Suzlon was in tune with the investment trends of business families in the West. Kavil
Ramachandran, Professor at the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, said, “I see this as an
emerging practice of entrepreneur families investing their personal wealth in long-term, high-
growth, safe businesses run by others, unlike the old practice of entrepreneurs redeploying their
wealth into the same business or for diversifying into other businesses under a group umbrella.”ix
Now, based on Shangvi’s two3 investments (Suzlon and Natco Pharma), answer the following
questions.
ASSIGNMENT QUESTIONS
Calculate the monthly returns of Suzlon, Natco, and Nifty from the given data.
Calculate and interpret Variance and Standard Deviation of Shangvi’s investments.
Calculate and interpret Covariance and Correlation between the investments of Shangvi.
Find out the weights of Shangvi’s investments in the minimum variance portfolio.
3
Though Shangvi had a wide portfolio of investments, for this case study his holdings only in two
companies (Suzlon and Natco Pharma) have been considered.
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Calculating Risk and Return of Investments in a Portfolio (Part A)
Suzlon
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Natco Pharma
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Nifty
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adjusted Close
1/4/2016 7924.55 7937.55 7241.5 7563.55 8793300 7563.55
12/1/2015 7958.15 7979.3 7551.05 7946.35 144400 7946.35
11/2/2015 8054.55 8116.1 7714.15 7935.25 162300 7935.25
10/1/2015 7992.05 8336.3 7930.65 8065.8 178100 8065.8
9/1/2015 7907.95 8055 7539.5 7948.9 182300 7948.9
8/3/2015 8510.65 8621.55 7667.25 7971.3 197000 7971.3
7/1/2015 8376.25 8654.75 8315.4 8532.85 4562900 8532.85
6/1/2015 8417.25 8467.15 7940.3 8368.5 150700 8368.5
5/4/2015 8230.05 8489.55 7997.15 8433.65 187400 8433.65
4/1/2015 8483.7 8841.65 8144.75 8181.5 187500 8181.5
3/2/2015 8953.85 9119.2 8269.15 8491 185400 8491
2/2/2015 8802.5 8913.45 8470.5 8844.6 182700 8844.6
1/2/2015 8288.7 8996.6 8065.45 8808.9 106200 8808.9
12/1/2014 8605.1 8626.95 7961.35 8282.7 61400 8282.7
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End Notes:
i
“Dilip Shangvi plays white knight to Suzlon Energy”, Business Standard Report, February 14, 2015
ii
“Dilip Shangvi buys 3.5% stake in Natco Pharma”, www.business-standard.com, December 08, 2011
iii
P R Sanjai, “Dilip Shangvi to buy 23% Suzlon stake for 1800 crore”, www.livemint.com, February 14,
2015
iv
P B Jayakumar, “Color of Knight”, www.businesstoday.com, March 15, 2015
v
Aveek Dutta, “Suzlon’s rise from the ashes”, Forbes India, September 28, 2015
vi
Aveek Datta, “Suzlon’s Rise from the Ashes,” www.forbes.com, September 28, 2015.
vii
Aveek Datta, “Suzlon’s Rise from the Ashes,” www.forbes.com, September 28, 2015.
viii
Madhura Karnik, “How a man Whose Name is not Ambani became the Richest Indian,” www.qz.com,
March 31, 2015.
ix
P B Jayakumar, “Color of Knight”, www.businesstoday.com, March 15, 2015
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