L2 - Basic Laws and Axioms Prob
L2 - Basic Laws and Axioms Prob
Sec 2-1.3
Events
Complement
A A
“outcomes in S not contained in A”
Mutually Exclusive Events - Laws
• Commutative law (event order is unimportant):
– A B = B A and A B = B A
• Complement law:
(A) = A.
Counting Techniques
• There are three special rules, or counting
techniques, used to determine the number of
outcomes in events.
• They are :
1. Multiplication rule
2. Permutation rule
3. Combination rule
• Each has its special purpose that must be applied
properly – the right tool for the right job.
Counting – Multiplication Rule
• Multiplication rule:
– Let an operation consist of k steps and there are
• n1 ways of completing step 1,
• n2 ways of completing step 2, … and
• nk ways of completing step k.
– Then, the total number of ways to perform k steps
is:
• n1 · n2 · … · nk
Example 2-5 - Web Site Design
• In the design for a website, we can choose to
use among:
– 4 colors,
– 3 fonts, and
– 3 positions for an image.
How many designs are possible?
• Answer via the multiplication rule: 4 · 3 · 3 =
36
Counting – Permutation Rule
• A permutation is a unique sequence of distinct
items.
• If S = {a, b, c}, then there are 6 permutations
– Namely: abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba (order
matters)
• Number of permutations for a set of n items is
n!
• n! = n·(n-1)·(n-2)·…·2·1
• 7! = 7·6·5·4·3·2·1 = 5,040 = FACT(7) in Excel
• By definition: 0! = 1
Counting–Subset Permutations and an example
• For a sequence of r items from a set of n items:
n!
P n(n 1)(n 2)...(n r 1)
n
(n r )!
r
r r !(n r )!
r
Example 2-8: Sampling w/o Replacement-1
3 = COMBIN(3,2)
Example 2-8: Sampling w/o Replacement-2
• Now, how many ways are there for selecting 4
parts from the 47 non-defective parts?
47! 47 46 45 44 43!
C 47
178,365 different ways
4! 43! 4 3 2 1 43!
4
178,365 = COMBIN(47,4)
Example 2-8: Sampling w/o Replacement-3
• Now, how many ways are there to obtain:
– 2 from 3 defectives, and
– 4 from 47 non-defectives?
C23C447 3178,365 535,095 different ways
535,095 = COMBIN(3,2)*COMBIN(47,4)
Definition of Probability
When conducting an experiment, the probability of
obtaining a specific outcome can be defined from
its relative frequency of occurrence:
n
P(A) lim
N N
• For any event A, 0 P( A) 1 .
Probability of a Union
• For any two events A and B, the probability of
union is given by:
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
P A B
P A | B
P B
P( A B) P A | B P B or P(B|A)P(A)
P A | B P A “Independent events”
If two events are independent, the probability of occurrence of the
intersection reduces to:
P D ' | F P D 'I F P F 30
400
40
400 30
40
a) What is the probability that the 2nd part came from Tool 2, given
that the 1st part came from Tool 1?
b) What is the probability that the 1st part came from Tool 1 and the
2nd part came from Tool 2?
– P(E1∩E2) = P(1st part came from Tool 1 and 2nd part came from Tool 2)
= (10/50)∙(40/49) = 8/49
*Selected randomly implies that at each step of the sample, the items
remain in the batch are equally likely to be selected.
Multiplication Rule
• The conditional probability can be rewritten to
generalize a multiplication rule.
Event Independence
• Two events are independent if any one of the
following equivalent statements is true:
1. P(A | B) = P(A)
2. P(B | A) = P(B)
3. P(AB) = P(A)·P(B)
• This means that occurrence of one event has
no impact on the probability of occurrence of
the other event.
Example 2-16: Flaws and Functions
Table 1 provides an example of 400 parts classified by surface flaws
and as (functionally) defective. Suppose that the situation is different
and follows Table 2. Let F denote the event that the part has surface
flaws. Let D denote the event that the part is defective. The data
shows whether the events are independent.
TABLE 1 Parts Classified TABLE 2 Parts Classified (data chg'd)
Surface Flaws Surface Flaws
Defective Yes (F ) No (F' ) Total Defective Yes (F ) No (F' ) Total
Yes (D ) 10 18 28 Yes (D ) 2 18 20
No (D' ) 30 342 372 No (D' ) 38 342 380
Total 40 360 400 Total 40 360 400
Solution:
Let Ei denote the event that the ith wafer contains no large particles,
i = 1, 2, …,15.
Bayes’ Theorem
• Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) was an
English mathematician and Presbyterian
minister.
• His idea was that we observe conditional
probabilities through prior information.
• Bayes’ theorem states that,
6
3
Example 2-18
The conditional probability that a high level of contamination was present
when a failure occurred is to be determined. The information from
Example 2-14 is summarized here.
P B | E1 P E1
P E1 | B
P B | E1 P E1 P B | E2 P E2 ... P B | Ek P Ek