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PART I: Assessment of Model-Input-Data: 5.1 Relief Analysis

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Methodology

PART I: Assessment of Model-Input-Data

5 Methodology
5.1 Relief Analysis

Relief Analysis was carried out utilising the software Arc View 3.3, Arc Info 8.2
and 3DEM. The raw data for the digital elevation model (DEM) are Shuttle Radar
Topography Mission (SRTM) data and altitude information from topographical maps in the
scale of 1:250,000 and 1:50,000, as published by the Ethiopian Mapping Authority.

SRTM data were processed with the freeware 3DEM as follows: First, the raw
data were projected into the UTM coordinate system, zone 37 N and then saved as USGS
ASCII DEM. The USGS DEM was subsequently imported into Arc View 3.3 and saved as a
GRID file with a cell size of 100 by 100 meters. Since the conversion of the grid cell size
from SRTM data into the cell size utilised in Arc View was done with the standard tool in Arc
Info, no error analyses of aggregation effects was carried out. However, it is known, that
conversions of grid cell sizes cause accuracy errors of the grid cell’s values.

Topographical maps 1:250,000 and 1:50,000 were geo-referenced in Erdas


Imagine and saved as GEO-TIFF. These GEO-TIFF files are the basis for all digitised
information as well as the geo-referencing (image to image) of individual images, thematic
maps or ground data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).

Sinks and sources of the GRID-DEM were levelled and lakes flattened using Arc
Info. Areas of digitised lakes and stream lines were reduced in altitude (’burned’) according to
their stream order after STRAHLER (1964): Order one streams were burned in by one meter in
elevation, order two streams by two meters, etc. The highest stream order encountered in the
project area is five. In a second step, the DEM was adapted to altitude information from the
topographical maps 1:250,000. In doing so, the entire DEM was reduced in altitude by 18
meters to be consistent with lake levels assigned by the Ethiopian Mapping Authority.

This DEM is the basis for all further analysis: flow direction, flow accumulation,
slope and aspect as well as plan curvature, profile curvature and complex curvature. All first
and second derivative grids have a grid cell size of 100 by 100 meters. They were computed
in Arc Info and transferred into Arc View for further analysis.

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Methodology

Additionally, individual DEMs were computed for each study site based on data
from topographical maps with a scale of 1:50,000. Contour lines and altitude points as well as
stream lines were digitised. These data were then processed in ArcInfo to interpolate the
DEM, fill sinks and sources and generate derivatives. The grid cell size here is also 100 by
100 meters.

The analysis of relief and derivatives utilised Arc View functions, such as
‘Histogram by Zone’ or ‘Summarize by Zone’. Extracted data were subsequently transferred
to either Excel or SPSS (Predictive Analytics Inside) for further statistical analysis.

5.2 Rainfall – Runoff Analysis

Availability of hydro-meteorological data in Ethiopia is in general acceptable, but


sometimes limited. Table five lists the meteorological stations relevant for this research and
the availability of data collected at these sites. The availability of data depends mostly on time
periods of recording and recording gaps but also on the fact that some recorded data could not
be obtained by the author. The spatial distribution of the meteorological stations is displayed
in figure 52.

The quality of the discharge data is very poor, because rating curves were typically
determined when the gauging stations were established, but were never updated. Also cross-
sections of the rivers have been determined only once (unofficial information from the
Ministry of Water Resources).

Almost complete time series of precipitation data are only available on a monthly
scale for the meteorological stations in the watershed. Hourly and daily precipitation data
could therefore only be used either to complete monthly time series or to illustrate relevant
rainfall events or general short interval characteristics of rainfall regimes. Point data from the
meteorological stations were interpolated using kriging within the software Surfer. The
ordinary linear kriging method was chosen, since it is proven useful in many fields. The
kriging method is not creating ‘bull’s eyes’ as for instance the ‘inverse distance to power’
method and therefore it is specially useful to interpolate scattered data along mountainous
areas(ABRAMOWITZ & STEGUN, 1972). However, the ordinary linear kriging method used in
Surfer 0.7 requires no further specific parameter input. Variogram analysis was carried out to
specify nugget-effect, range, minimum and maximum values.

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Methodology

Table 5: Data Availability in the Bilate Watershed

Station Precipitation Discharge


monthly
hourly daily monthly
Anchaga 2001-2002 1970-1996
Alaba Kulito 1970-1996 1975-1996
Aleta Wendo 1970-1996
Aje 1970-1996
Awassa 1970-1996
Bedessa 1987-2004 1970-1996
Bilate State Farm 1990-2002 1970-1996
Bilate Tena (Dimtu) 2001-2002 1970-1996 1980, 1981
1984-1987
1989-1992
1998-2002
Boditi 1984-2002 1970-1996
Butajira 1970-1996
Fonko 1988-2004
Hossaina 2001-2002 1984-1988 1970-1996
1990-2004
Hossaina (Batena) 1987-1995
1997-1999
Hossaina (Guder) 1988-2000
Humbo Tebela 1990-2002 1970-1996
Mirab Abaya 2001-2002 2001-2002
Shone 1984-2004 1970-1996
Sodo 2000-2002 1990-2002 1970-1996
Wulbareg 2001-2002
Yirga Alem 1970-1996

All data derived from Surfer were transferred into Arc View and incorporated into
the spatial dataset. Subsequently, the influences of altitude on the precipitation totals were
incorporated. The method for predicting spatial rainfall after PRUDOMME (1999) was modified
and applied to estimate average monthly rainfall: First, average monthly rainfall totals (1970-
1996) of all meteorological stations were correlated to the altitude by month. The spatial
distribution of rainfall was then estimated utilising these correlations and the altitude
information of the DEM. As a second step, positive and negative differences of monthly
precipitation totals between the meteorological stations and the computed spatial rainfall data
set were calculated and a spatial difference surface was created using the kriging method. The
spatial difference surface was then subtracted from computed spatial rainfall data set. This
approach accounts for both the correlation of precipitation totals and altitude, and the lack of
data for spatial estimation.

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Methodology

Rainfall intensity data are only available for two meteorological stations.
Therefore, a rainfall-intensity-index was designed (chapter 7.1.1.3) based on monthly
precipitation totals and maximum precipitation within the same month. The kriging method
was subsequently utilised in Surfer to create the spatial distribution of this index. The
resulting spatial distribution of the rainfall-intensity-index was then transferred into Arc
View.

Volumes of both discharge and precipitation were computed in Excel and Arc
View using the ‘dbase IV’ file format for exchanging data. Further statistical analyses were
then carried out in SPSS.

5.3 Assessment of Erosion and Soil Erosion Damages

5.3.1 Field Work

Field work for assessing erosion and soil erosion damages, collecting information
from farmers, individual institutes or ministries was conducted during several visits to
Ethiopia:

• 2002, March: preparatory work, selection of test sites, collection of data in Addis
Ababa

• 2002, August / September: Assessment of erosion and soil erosion damages in


study sites in the Western Ethiopian Highlands and the northern part of the
watershed; assessment of erosion processes occurring during the rainy season and
collection of data in Addis Ababa.

• 2003, February / March: Assessment of erosion and soil erosion damages in the
Western Ethiopian Highlands and in the Rift Valley; assessment of erosion
processes occurring during dry season; collection of additional information from
farmers and institutes.

• 2003, August / September: Mapping and collection of missing information in the


entire watershed.

The field work was prepared before each field trip by collecting topographical
maps, aerial photographs and satellite images. A selection of potential study areas was
determined from topographical maps, scale 1:50,000. During the first field trip eight actual
study areas were selected, based on their feasibility for this research. Preconditions were:

34
Methodology

• Size of the study area: 3-15 km² (exception is one study area of ~80km²)

• Representative landscape characteristics of the region

• Different land uses within the study area

• The study area encompasses a watershed

• Occurrence of erosion and soil erosion damages and areas without any damages as
well as accumulation areas

• Accessibility by car

Since the geomorphological unit ‘Valleys and Basin’ was hardly accessable, no
study site was selected here.

Mapping of erosion and soil erosion damages in the study areas was carried out by
ground mapping. Damages as well as soil conservation measures and land use were drawn on
enlarged copies of the topographical maps 1:50,000. The enlargement factor was 200%, thus
the drawn maps have scale of 1:12,500. The mapping was based on the ‘Bodenkundliche
Kartieranleitung’ (AG BODEN, 1996) as adapted by SCHÜTT & THIEMANN (2001) for the
prevailing conditions in Ethiopia and watershed management needs. In addition, digital
images were taken for documentation and local farmers were interviewed. The translation was
hereby provided by students who joined the field trips or by teachers of local schools.

5.3.2 Remote Sensing

Three types of remote sensing data were utilised:

Digital images were taken during flights across the watershed. The plane was
flying approximately 1,000 meters above ground and these pictures therefore provide a very
good overview of the landscape and erosion processes taking place. In this research, these
pictures have only been used for documentation.

Aerial photographs have been used to assess larger erosion forms, such as barren
degraded land. Since the aerial photographs were taken in the 1960’s and 1970’s, these
pictures were only suitable for methodology but not for current assessment of land
degradation forms or land use.

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Methodology

Satellite images from Landsat TM 5 and 7 were obtained from the internet. In this
research following satellite images were utilised:

Table 6: Utilised Satellite Images

Satellite Row Path Recording Date


Landsat TM 5 168 53 26.03.1986
Landsat TM 5 168 54 21.01.1986
Landsat TM 5 169 55 22.11.1984
Landsat TM 5 169 56 28.01.1986
Landsat TM 7 168 55 05.02.2000
Landsat TM 7 169 54 26.11.2000
Landsat TM 7 169 55 26.11.2000

Landsat TM 5 and 7 data were processed in Erdas Imagine. Since these satellite
images were already geo-referenced and corrected for atmospheric errors, the processing of
the images was reduced to simple re-projection into UTM coordinate system and clustering of
spatial information. The visible spectrum of these data, channels one to three, were used in
this study to determine a land cover class index (see chapter 7.4).

5.4 Analysis of Soils and Soil Sediments

5.4.1 Secondary data

FAO (1998) provides soil and terrain data for Ethiopia at a scale of 1:1,000,000.
Since thematic maps of Ethiopia are predominantly based on the FAO data or vice versa, the
harmonized FAO data have been used in this research. Additional thematic maps are available
from the Ethiopian Ministries of Agriculture and of Mines; however these do not provide
more detailed data. FAO data for Ethiopia were exported from the FAO software into Arc
View, projected into the UTM coordinate system, zone 37 N and converted into an Arc View
grid with a cell size of 100 by 100 meters. The soil data utilized from FAO soil and terrain
databases were: soil type, total soil depth, and stone coverage.

5.4.2 Primary Data

Additional soil and soil sediment samples were collected during the field surveys.
Samples were collected from horizons and layers of 34 profiles, which are spread across the
watershed. The samples were dried in the sun in Arba Minch, Ethiopia first. After the
transport to Germany, all samples were dried in an oven at 50° C and than sub-sampled. Sub-
samples were either milled between 20 min to one hour in an agate ball mill for further

36
Methodology

analysis such as the determination of minerals, colour, and magnetic susceptibility; or were
directly used for the analysis of pH, organic and inorganic carbon content, electronic
conductivity, clay minerals and grain size distribution.

Organic and inorganic carbon content was measured using the ‘Carmhograph’ of
the company Wösthoff. Total organic carbon content was measured by heating the sample at
900° C. Treating the oxidized carbon with oxygen reduces it to CO2. This CO2 was brought
into reaction with caustic sodium hydroxide. Due to the content of CO2 the electric
conductivity of sodium hydroxide changes and these conductivity values indicate the total
organic carbon content, which is presented in percent of weight. For determination of
inorganic carbon, samples were first brought to reaction with phosphoric acid and in a
secondary reaction CO2 develops in an oxygen flux. Similar to the determination of total
organic carbon content, the CO2 changes the electric conductivity of sodium hydroxide and
thus, indicates the percent by weight of inorganic carbon content. The difference of total
carbon content to inorganic carbon content indicates the organic carbon content.

PH-Values of the samples were measured with the pH-meter ‘pH 320’ from the
company WTW (Wissenschaftlich-Technische Werstätten GmbH). 10 g of each sample have
been brought into solution of 25 ml 0.01 M CaCl2 and shacked 24 hours before measurement.
Each sample was measures three times and the average of the three values was calculated.
Measuring modes of the pH-values range between 2.0 and 16.0 pH with a resolution of
0.01 pH and an accuracy 0.01 +/- 1 digit with an operating temperature between -10° and
+55° C.

EH-Values of the samples were measured by the eH-meter ‘LF 91’ from the
company WTW (Wissenschaftlich-Technische Werstätten GmbH). 10g of each sample were
mixed with distilled aqua and shacked 24 hours before measurement. Each sample was
measures three times and the average of the three values was calculated. Measuring modes of
the eH-values range up to 199.9 mS/cm, whereas the operating temperature should be
between -15° and +50° C. Accuracy errors are not given for this eH-meter.

The magnetic susceptibility of the samples was measured with the MS2B
Magnetic Susceptibility Meter of the company Bartington. The MS2B–meter runs without
any calibration but external influences, such as magnetic fields of any electronic equipment
and changes in temperatures prohibit exact measurements and thus, the theoretical metering
precision of 0.001 µm³·kg-1 will never be reached (DEARING 1994). After a zero point
measurement (without sample) three measurements (Ksample) alternating with zero point

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Methodology

measurements (Kzero) were taken per sample. The arithmetic average of the three
measurements was then computed after applying a correction formula to each individual
measurement (DEARING, 1994):

K(cor) = K(sample) – [K(zero1) + K(zero2)] / 2 (1)

Colours of samples were measured with the spectrophotometer CM2500d of the


company Minolta. After calibration, three single measures were taken and arithmeticly
averaged. The results are expressed in the CIE-L*a*b colour system. This system was
converted to the RGB system for display in graphs.

Mineralogical compounds were determined by X-Ray diffractometry. The


diffractometer is the PW 1710 from Philips, working with a CuKα-radiation tube. Milled
samples were analysed from 2-60° 2θ, whereas steps have been 0.01° 2θ measured for two
seconds. The X-ray results were analysed semi-quantitatively with the software X’Pert
Highscore, Version 1.0b from Philips. Since some cards (ID of minerals) of the Powder
Diffraction File (PDF) miss information on reference intensity correlation (RIR) that is
necessary for the semi-quantitative analysis, not all expected minerals could be added to the
shortlist. Minerals, which could be used for semi-quantitative analyses (RIR > 0) are:
Amphibole, Anorthite, Biotite, Calcite, Goethite, Hematite, Magnetite, Montbrayite,
Pyroxene, Quartz and Sanidine.

Clay Minerals were analysed with the same X-Ray diffractometer. During the
pipetting of samples for grain size distribution of clay and silt fractions, sub-samples of the
clayey suspension were retained and released on an object slide. The suspension was then
dried slowly to avoid cracking of the clayey surface. Dried samples were first measured from
2-35° 2θ (step 0.01° 2θ, 1 sec. measurement). A second set of samples was treated with
ethylene glycol by 50° C in an oven for 24 hours in order to differentiate between probable
occurring Smectite and Chlorite. After an initial X-ray measurement, the samples were heated
for 2 hours at 550° C and measured again to identify swellable clay minerals.

The analysis of grain size distribution was carried out in two steps. First, the grain
size distributions of the sand fraction were analysed. Samples were wet sieved into classes of
grain size according to the ‘Bodenkundliche Kartieranleitung’ (FINNERN ET AL., 1996).
Secondly, clay and silt fractions of the selected samples were pipetted.

Results of the sample analyses were utilised to determine input factors for ongoing
computation of spatial erodibility factor values, which were then used for descriptive

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Methodology

comparison of profiles. Additionally these results were utilised for an attempt to verify of
FAO ground data. Interpolating point data from the samples into spatial information was
carried out using the ordinary kriging method. However, the interpolation of 34 points in a
watershed of 5,500 km² can only roughly estimate realistic values. Moreover, the different
relief positions of the sample points are not considered, although their influence on the
variability of soil characteristics is known.

5.5 Determination of Vegetation Cover and Land Cover

A Land Cover Class Index (LCCI) was designed for this study as follows. It is
based on channels one to three of Landsat TM images, which represent the visible spectrum.
The utilised Landsat TM images were obtained for free from the internet. Their processing
data was January and November 2000, respectively. Satellite images recorded during rainy
season are not available for the watershed due to the very high cloud cover during that season.
Since these images are free, they only contain the channels one to three. Considering the
further utilisation of the developed model – the application in developing countries – the
financial aspect was one consideration: Often necessary money for applied research is not
available in these countries. Other, free available images for instance for different regions also
contain often only the channels one to three. Additionally, the development of the LCCI is
based on the three channels, because of its very easy handling and the visual association of
the individual classes to vegetation conditions on the ground. Computer based or manual
classifications by ground mapping lead to same results in terms of spatial land cover
information.

First, the Landsat TM images were re-projected into the UTM coordinate system
(UTM Zone 37 N) with ‘Erdas Imagine’ re-projection tool. Any correction of atmospheric
errors was not necessary, since they were already processed.

Second, 20 clusters of the grid cells were automatically unsupervised classified by


using the software ‘Erdas Imagine’ and in a next step classified manually into 6 classes.
Manually classification was verified with information from aerial photographs and ground
data. To minimize classification errors, first, classes were clustered where ground information
were very well known, such as water bodies, grassland or degraded areas. This positive
selection leads automatically to classes of different accuracy in relation to the ground data.
Clusters of classes with mixed land cover (see chapter 7.4) are less precise than clusters of
classes of well separable signals.

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Methodology

Since the recording dates of the satellite images are in November and February,
the LCCI represents the vegetation cover for the dry season only. Therefore the classes
reflecting mixed vegetation cover are also of less accuracy than classes reflecting degraded
areas or perennial vegetation.

The developed Land Cover Class Index shows several accuracy errors that result
for instance during the unsupervised classification, but it needs less knowledge in remote
sensing than the utilisation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Handling
of NDVI data requires base studies of remote sensing, which are not warranted in developing
countries and not considered suitable for local users of this model. Additionally, NDVI data
of resolution higher than 8•8 km require financial sources, which are not always given.
Advantages of time series and high spatial resolution as well as the benefits of this
information are known.

The development of the LCCI is based on satellite images from the dry season
month January. It is verified with the NDVI data from the same month. Since NDVI data are
available in grid sizes 1•1 km, the overlay of LCCI (30•30 m) onto the NDVI has spatial
errors, such as offsets; aditionally appr. 1089 LCCI cells are located within one NDVI cell
and that prevents proper correlation calculations. Therefore, the spatial relationship of both
datasets gives only a rough hint on the quality of the LCCI dataset.

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