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Probability of Simple Events

Probability Objective:
Students will be able to find the probability of a
simple event.

of Simple
Students will be able to understand the
distinction between simple events and
compound events.
Essential Question:

Events (1) How do I find the probability of a simple

event?
(2) How can I distinguish between a simple and
compound event?

Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Vocabulary: Real World Example:
 Outcome – one possible result of a probability. BLOCKS are inside a bag. Customers
 Sample Space – the list of possible outcomes may choose a BLOCK without looking at
for a probability event. the color. Inside the bag are 4 orange,
 Random – outcomes that occur at random if 5 blue, 6 green, and 5 pink BLOCKS. If
each outcome is equally likely to occur.
Maria chooses one BLOCK at random,
 Simple Event – a specific outcome or type of
what is the probability she will choose
outcome.
an orange BLOCK?
 Complementary Events – the events of one
outcome happening and that outcomes not
happening are complimentary; the sum of the
probabilities of complementary events is 1.

Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Real World Example:
What is a PROBABILITY?
P(orange) = 4/
20 = 2/
10 - Probability is the chance that some
= 1/5 or 20% event will happen

- It is the ratio of the number of

ways a certain event can occur to
the number of possible outcomes

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Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY? What is a PROBABILITY?

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
number of favorable outcomes
P(event) =
number of possible outcomes
0 ¼ or .25 ½ 0r .5 ¾ or .75 1

Examples that use Probability: Impossible Not Very Equally Likely Somewhat Certain
(1) Dice, (2) Spinners, (3) Coins, (4) Deck of Likely Likely

Cards, (5) Evens/Odds, (6) Alphabet, etc.

Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Example 1: Roll a dice. Example 2: Roll a dice.
What is the probability of rolling a 4? What is the probability of rolling an even
number?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) = P(event) = # favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes # possible outcomes

P(rolling a 4) = 1 P(even #) =
3
=
1
6 6 2
The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6 The probability of rolling an even number is 3 out of 6 or .5
or 50%

Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Example 3: Spinners. Example 4: Flip a coin.
What is the probability of spinning green? What is the probability of flipping a tail?

# favorable outcomes # favorable outcomes

P(event) = P(event) =
# possible outcomes # possible outcomes
1 1 1 1
P(green) = = P(tail) = =
4 4 2 2
The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 4 or .25 or The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50%
25%

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Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Example 5: Deck of Cards.
Key Concepts:
What is the probability of picking a heart?

P(heart) =
# favorable outcomes
=
13
=
1
- Probability is the chance that some
# possible outcomes 52 4
The probability of picking a heart is
event will happen
1 out of 4 or .25 or 25%
What is the probability of picking a non heart? - It is the ratio of the number of
# favorable outcomes 39 3
ways a certain even can occur to
P(nonheart) =
# possible outcomes
=
52
=
4 the total number of possible
The probability of picking a heart is outcomes
3 out of 4 or .75 or 75%

Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Guided Practice: Calculate the probability Guided Practice: Answers.

of each independent event.

1) P(black) = 1) P(black) = 4/8

2) P(1) = 2) P(1) = 1/8
3) P(odd) = 3) P(odd) = 1/2
4) P(prime) = 4) P(prime) = 1/2

Probability of Simple Events Probability of Simple Events

Independent Practice: Calculate the Independent Practice: Answers.

probability of each independent event.

1) P(red) = 1) P(red) = 1/2

2) P(2) = 2) P(2) = 1/4
3) P(not red) = 3) P(not red) = 1/2
4) P(even) = 4) P(even) = 1/2

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Probability of Simple Events

Real World Example:

A computer company manufactures 2,500
computers each day. An average of 100 of
these computers are returned with defects.
4.1
What is the probability that the computer
Probability of Events
you purchased is not defective?

P(not defective) = # not defective = 2,400 = 24

total # manufactured 2,500 25

Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Probability of Events Probability of Events

 We are now ready to define what is meant by
probability.  The value assigned to the probability of event A
 Specifically, we talk about “the probability of as a result of experimentation can be found by
an event” as the relative frequency with which means of the formula:
that event can be expected to occur.  Empirical (Observed) Probability P(A)
 The probability of an event may be obtained in
three different ways:
(1) empirically,  In algebra:
(2) theoretically, and
(3) subjectively. (4.1)

Probability of Events Probability of Events

 The theoretical method for obtaining the
probability of an event uses a sample space.  Each outcome (i.e., number) is equally likely.
 A sample space is a listing of all possible
 An event is a subset of the sample space
outcomes from the experiment being considered (denoted by a capital letter other than S; A is
(denoted by the capital letter S). commonly used for the first event).
 When this method is used, the sample space
 Therefore, the probability of an event A, P(A), is
must contain equally likely sample points. the ratio of the number of points that satisfy the
definition of event A,
For example, the sample space for the rolling of
n(A), to the number of sample points in the
one die is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
entire sample space, n(S).

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Terminology
Select a card from an ordinary deck of playing cards (no
 Sample space: is a list of all possible outcomes of jokers)
the experiment. The outcomes must be mutually  The sample space would consist of the 52 cards, 13
exclusive and exhaustive. Mutually exclusive means of each suit. We have 13 clubs, 13 spades, 13 hearts
they are distinct and non-overlapping. Exhaustive and 13 diamonds.
means complete.
 Event: is a subset of the sample space. An event can be
classified as a simple event or compound event.
 A simple event: the selected card is the two of clubs.
A compound event is the selected card is red (there
are 26 red cards and so there are 26 simple events
comprising the compound event)

Probability of Events Probability of Events

 That is, Note
 Theoretical (Expected) Probability P(A) 1. When the value assigned to the probability of an
event results from a the theoretical source, we
 In words: will identify the probability of the event with the
symbol P( ).
2. The prime symbol is not used with theoretical
probabilities; it is used only for empirical
probabilities.
 In algebra:
(4.2)

Picturing the Sample Space

Consider one rolling of one die. In a single roll of
a die, there are six possible outcomes, making n(S)
= 6.
Define event A as the occurrence of a number
Picturing the Sample Space
“greater than 4.”

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Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

The event “greater than 4” is satisfied by the
occurrence of either a 5 or a 6; thus, n(A) = 2.
Assuming that the die is symmetrical and that
each number has an equal likelihood of occurring,
the probability of A is
, or
What happens when you role a pair of dice?

Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

 The sum of their dots is to be considered. A listing of
the possible “sums” forms a sample space,  The sum of 2 represents {(1, 1)}, where the first
S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12} and n (S) = 11. element of the ordered pair is the outcome for
 However, the elements of this sample space are not the white die and the second element of the
equally likely; therefore, this sample space cannot be ordered pair is the outcome for the black die.
used to find theoretical probabilities—we must use the
36-point sample space shown in the above chart.
 By using the 36-point sample space, the sample space is
 The sum of 3 represents {(2, 1), (1, 2)}; and the
entirely made up of equally likely sample points, and the sum of 4 represents {(1, 3), (3, 1), (2, 2)}; and so
probabilities for the sums of 2, 3, 4, and so on can be on.
found quite easily.

Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

 Thus, we can use formula (4.2) and the 36-point
A family with two children is to be selected at
sample space to obtain the probabilities for each
of the 11 sums. random, and we want to find the probability that
the family selected has one child of each gender.

 and so forth.
 Because there will always be a firstborn and a
second-born child, we will use a tree diagram to
When a probability experiment can be thought of show the possible arrangements of gender, thus
as a sequence of events, a tree diagram often is a making it possible for us to determine the
very helpful way to picture the sample space. probability.

Startby determining the sequence of events

involved—firstborn and second-born in this case.

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Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

Use the tree to show the possible outcomes of
the first event (shown in brown in Figure 4.1) and Note
then add branch segments to show the possible 1. The two branch segments representing B and G
outcomes for the second event (shown in orange for the second-born child must be drawn from
in Figure 4.1). each outcome for the firstborn child, thus
creating the “tree” appearance.
2. There are four branches; each branch starts at
the “tree root” and continues to an “end”
(made up of two branch segments each),
showing a possible outcome.
Tree Diagram Representation of Family with Two Children
Figure 4.1

Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

Because the branch segments are equally likely,  Thus,
assuming equal likeliness of gender, the four
branches are then equally likely.
This means we need only the count of branches
to use formula (4.2) to find the probability of the  Now let’s consider selecting a family of three
family having one child of each gender. children and finding the probability of “at least
one boy” in that family.
The two middle branches, (B, G) and (G, B),
represent the event of interest, so n(A) = n(one of  Again the family can be thought of as a
each) = 2, whereas n(S) = 4 because there are a sequence of three events—firstborn, second-
total of four branches. born, and third-born.

Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

 To create a tree diagram of this family, we need to
add a third set of branch segments to our two- Again, because the branch segments are equally
child family tree diagram. The green branch likely, assuming equal likeliness of gender, the
segments represent the third child (see Fig 4.2). eight branches are then equally likely.

This means we need only the count of branches

to use formula (4.2) to find the probability of the
family having at least one boy.

Tree Diagram Representation of Family with Three Children The top seven branches all have one or more
Figure 4.2
boys, the equivalent of “at least one.”

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Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space


However, if we look at the tree diagram in Figure
4.2, there are two ways to view the answer.
Let’s consider one other question before we leave
this example.

What is the probability that the third child in this

family of three children is a girl? The question is
actually an easy one; the answer is 0.5, because we
have assumed equal likelihood of either gender.
Tree Diagram Representation of Family with Three Children
Figure 4.2

Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

 First, if you look at only the branch segments  Once the sample space is defined, you will find the
for the third-born child, you see one of two is remaining work much easier.
for a girl in each set, thus , or 0.5.  A subjective probability is a personal judgment
 Also, if you look at the entire tree diagram, the determined by an observer with incomplete
last child is a girl on four of the eight branches; information.
thus , or 0.5.  Your local weather forecaster often assigns a
probability to the event “precipitation.”
 Special attention should always be given to the
 For example, “There is a 20% chance of rain today,” or
sample space. Like the statistical population, the “There is a 70% chance of snow tomorrow.”
sample space must be well defined.

Picturing the Sample Space Picturing the Sample Space

 The forecaster assigns a probability to the event
based on past data about weather that followed Subjective probabilities (also called Bayesian
after similar circumstances in the past, all the while probabilities) are used increasingly in the natural
knowing that all the factors that contribute to sciences, the social sciences, medicine, and
weather are not yet scientifically known. economics.
 The more experience the observer (in this case, the
forecaster) gains in relating current circumstances to
past events, and the more types of data the observer
takes into account, the more accurate the subjective
probability becomes.

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Properties of Probability Numbers

Property 1 (“A probability is always a numerical
value between zero and one.”) can be expressed
algebraically as follows:
0 ≤ each P(A) ≤ 1 or 0 ≤ each P(A) ≤ 1
Properties of Probability Numbers 1. The probability is 0 if the event cannot occur.
2. The probability is 1 if the event occurs every
time.
3. Otherwise, the probability is a fractional
number between 0 and 1.

Properties of Probability
Properties of Probability Numbers
Numbers
 Property 2 (“The sum of the probabilities for all Notes About Probability Numbers
outcomes of an experiment is equal to exactly 1. Probability represents a relative frequency.
one.”) can also be expressed algebraically: 2. P(A) is the ratio of the number of times an
event can be expected to occur divided by the
number of trials. P(A) is the ratio of the
number of times an event did occur divided by
 For Property 2 to hold, the list of “all
the number of data.
outcomes” must be a non overlapping set of
events that includes all the possibilities (all- 3. The numerator of the probability ratio must be
inclusive). a positive number or zero.

Properties of Probability
Numbers
4. The denominator of the probability ratio must
be a positive number (greater than zero).
5. As a result of Notes 1 through 4 above, the How Are Empirical and
probability of an event, whether it be empirical,
theoretical, or subjective, will always be a Theoretical Probabilities Related?
numerical value between zero and one,
inclusively.
6. The rules for probability are the same for all
three types of probability.

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How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related? How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related?

 Consider the rolling of one die and define event  What value would you expect to observe for P
A as the occurrence of a “1.” (A)? Explain. How are the two probabilities
 An ordinary die has six equally likely sides, so P(A) and P(A) related? Explain.
the theoretical probability of event A is P(A) =  Demonstration—law Of Large Numbers
What does this mean?  To gain some insight into this relationship, let’s
 Do you expect to see one “1” in each trial of six rolls? perform an experiment. The experiment will
Explain. If not, what results do you expect? If we were
consist of 20 trials.
to roll the die several times and keep track of the
proportion of the time event A occurs, we would  Each trial of the experiment will consist of
observe an empirical probability for event A. rolling a die six times and recording the number
of times the “1” occurs. Perform 20 trials.

How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related? How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related?

Each row of Table 4.1 shows the results of one

trial; we conduct 20 trials, so there are 20 rows.  Column 1 lists the number of 1s observed in
each trial (set of six rolls)
 column 2 lists the observed relative frequency
for each trial
 column 3 lists the cumulative relative frequency
as each trial was completed.

Experimental Results of Rolling a Die Six Times in Each Trial

Table 4.1

How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related? How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related?

 The law of large numbers is telling us that the larger the

 In fact, the cumulative relative frequency becomes number of experimental trials, n, the closer the empirical
relatively close to the theoretical or expected probability, probability, P (A), is expected to be to the true or
or = 0.167. theoretical probability, P (A).
 Long term average is often referred to as the law of  This concept has many applications. The preceding dice-
large numbers, which states that as the number of times tossing experiment is an example in which we can easily
an experiment is repeated increases, the ratio of the compare actual results against what we expected to happen;
number of successful occurrences to the number of trials it gave us a chance to verify the claim of the law of large
numbers.
will tend to approach the theoretical probability of the
outcome for an individual trial.  Sometimes we live with the results obtained from large sets
of data when the theoretical expectation is unknown.

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How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related? How Are Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Related?

 One such example occurs in the life insurance industry.

The key to establishing proper life insurance rates is Law of large number
using the probability that those insured will live 1, 2, or As the number of times an experiment is repeated
3 years, and so forth, from the time they purchase their increases, the ratio of the number of successful
policies. occurrences to the number of trials will tend to
 These probabilities are derived from actual life and approach the theoretical probability of the
death statistics and hence are empirical probabilities. outcome for an individual trial.
 They are published by the government and are
extremely important to the life insurance industry.

Probabilities as Odds
 Probabilities can be and are expressed in many ways; we see
and hear many of them in the news nearly every day (most
of the time, they are subjective probabilities).
 Odds are a way of expressing probabilities by expressing
Probabilities as Odds the number of ways an event can happen compared to the
number of ways it can’t happen.
 The statement “It is four times more likely to rain
tomorrow (R) than not rain (NR)” is a probability statement
that can be expressed as odds: “The odds are 4 to 1 in favor
of rain tomorrow” (also written 4:1).

Probabilities as Odds Probabilities as Odds

 The relationship between odds and probability is To illustrate this relationship, consider the statement “The
shown here. odds favoring rain tomorrow are 4 to 1.”
 If the odds in favor of an event A are a to b (or  Using the preceding notation, a = 4 and b = 1.

a:b), then  Therefore, the probability of rain tomorrow is

1. The odds against event A are b to a (or b:a). , or = 0.8.

 The odds against rain tomorrow are 1 to 4 (or 1:4), and
2. The probability of event A is P(A) = the probability that there will be no rain tomorrow is
, or = 0.2.
3. The probability that event A will not occur is
P(not A) =

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Comparison of Probability and Statistics

 Probability and statistics are two separate but related
fields of mathematics. It has been said that “probability
is the vehicle of statistics.” That is, if it were not for the
laws of probability, the theory of statistics would not be
possible.
Comparison of Probability  Let’s illustrate the relationship and the difference
and Statistics between these two branches of mathematics by looking
at two sets of poker chips.
 On one hand, we know that the probability set contains
twenty green, twenty red, and twenty blue poker chips.

Comparison of Probability and Statistics Comparison of Probability and Statistics

 Probability tries to answer questions such as, “If one
Statistics, in contrast, asks you to draw a sample,
chip is randomly drawn from this set, what is the
chance that it will be blue?” On the other hand, in the describe the sample (descriptive statistics), and
statistics set, we don’t know what the combination of then make inferences about the population based
chips is. on the information found in the sample
 We draw a sample and, based on the findings in the (inferential statistics).
sample, make conjectures about what we believe to be
in the set.
 Note the difference: Probability asks you about the
chance that something specific, such as drawing a blue
chip, will happen when you know the possibilities (that
is, you know the population).

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