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HW3 ME406 201 Solution

This homework assignment from Dr. Ahmed Sarhan includes 7 questions about engineering statistics. Students are asked to solve problems involving probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, normal distributions, binomial distributions, lognormal distributions, and exponential distributions. They must determine probabilities, means, variances, and parameter values for different distributions. The assignment is due on September 29th, 2020 and must be submitted as a PDF file named "HW#-ID#.pdf" to the M406 Blackboard site. Plagiarism will result in a grade of zero.

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349 views5 pages

HW3 ME406 201 Solution

This homework assignment from Dr. Ahmed Sarhan includes 7 questions about engineering statistics. Students are asked to solve problems involving probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, normal distributions, binomial distributions, lognormal distributions, and exponential distributions. They must determine probabilities, means, variances, and parameter values for different distributions. The assignment is due on September 29th, 2020 and must be submitted as a PDF file named "HW#-ID#.pdf" to the M406 Blackboard site. Plagiarism will result in a grade of zero.

Uploaded by

Y7ya73
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Mechanical Engineering Department

ME 406 Manufacturing and Design, First Semester 2020/2021 (Term-201)


HOMEWORK #3 (Engineering Statistics),
Assigned by: Dr. Ahmed Sarhan/Dr Numan Abu Dheir
Assigned September 22, 2020,

Due on Tuesday 29th September 2020 on BB “ONLY” (before 11:59


PM). Late submission will not be accepted

Name: _________________________________ ID#: ___________________________

Problems Marks Grades Obtained

1 15

2 10

3 10

4 20

5 15

6 15

7 15

Total 100

IMPORTANT
 Write your name and ID# on this cover page and include it with the
solution file and save it as PDF file.
 Name the PDF file as “HW#-ID#.pdf” (e.g. HW1-202012345.pdf).
 Upload the PDF file on M406-BlackBoard under Assignments section.
 (IMPORTANT: Plagiarism, i.e. copying HW from others work, will grant
you ZERO in the HW).
Q1) A test instrument needs to be calibrated periodically to prevent measurement errors. After
some time of use without calibration, it is known that the probability density function, PDF, of
the measurement error is f (x) = 1− 0.5x for 0 < x < 2 millimeters.
(a) If the measurement error within 0.5 millimeters is acceptable, what is the probability that the
error is not acceptable before calibration?
𝟐 𝒙𝟐 𝟐
Solution: 𝑷(𝟎. 𝟓 < 𝑿 < 𝟐) = ∫𝟎.𝟓 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟓𝒙 = (𝒙 − )| 𝟎.𝟓= 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟑𝟕𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟔𝟐𝟓
𝟒

(b) What is the value of measurement error exceeded with probability 0.2 before calibration?
Solution:
𝒙
𝒙𝟐
𝑷(𝒙 < 𝑿) = ∫ (𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟓𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = (𝒙 − ) = 𝟎. 𝟖
𝟎 𝟒
𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒏 𝒙𝟐 − 𝟒𝒙 + 𝟑. 𝟐 = 𝟎
−𝒃 ∓ √𝒃𝟐 − 𝟒𝒂𝒄
𝑿= = 𝟏. 𝟏𝟎𝟓, 𝟐. 𝟖𝟗𝟒
𝟐𝒂
𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝟎 < 𝒙 < 𝟐, 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒏 𝑿 = 𝟏. 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝒎𝒎

(c) What is the probability that the measurement error is exactly 0.22 millimeters before
calibration?
Solution: The probability of an exact value for continuous variable = 0

Q2) Find the expression for the CDF of the PDF in Q1. Use the cumulative distribution function
to determine the probability that 0.5 < X ≤ 1.
𝒙 𝒙𝟐
CDF, F(x) = ∫𝟎 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟓𝒙 = (𝒙 − )
𝟒

𝑷(𝟎. 𝟓 < 𝒙 < 𝟏) = F(1) –F (0.5) = (1-0.25) – (0.5-1/16) = 0.75 – 0.4375 = 0.3125
Q3) Find the mean and variance for the random event in Q1.
𝟐 𝟐 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝟑 𝟐
mean µ =E(x)= ∫𝟎 𝒙𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 = ∫𝟎 (𝒙 − 𝟎. 𝟓𝒙𝟐 )𝒅𝒙 = − | = 𝟒/𝟐 − 𝟖/𝟔 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟕 mm
𝟐 𝟔 𝟎
𝟐
Variance 𝝈𝟐 =V(x) = ∫𝟎 𝒙𝟐 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙 − 𝝁𝟐 =
2
𝑥3 𝑥4 2 8 16
∫(𝑥 2 − 0.5𝑥 3 )𝑑𝑥 − 0.66672 = − |0 − 0.4444 = ( − ) − 0.4444 = 0.2222 𝑚𝑚2
3 8 3 8
0

Q4) In an accelerator center, an experiment needs a 1.41-cm thick aluminum cylinder


(http://puhep1.princeton.edu/mumu/target/Solenoid_Coil.pdf). Suppose that the thickness of a
cylinder has a normal distribution with a mean of 1.41 cm and a standard deviation of 0.01 cm.
(a) What is the probability that a thickness is greater than 1.42 cm?
x= thickness of aluminum cylinder

P(x > 1.42) = P((x-μ)/σ/ > (1.42-1.41)/0.01) = P (z > 1) = 1- (1)

(1) from table of +z of normal distribution = 0.841345

Then P(x > 1.42) = 1- 0.841345 = 0.158655

(b) What thickness is exceeded by 95% of the samples?

P(x<X) = (z) = 0.05


From table of -z of normal distribution and since (-1.65) = 0.049471, (-1.64) =
0.050503
Then Z ≈ -1.645
Since Z= (X – μ)/σ
Then -1.645 = (X – 1.41)/0.01, then X = 0.01 (-1.645) + 1.41 = 1.39355 cm

The thickness smaller than 95% of the other thicknesses is 1.39355 cm

(c) If the specifications require that the thickness is between 1.39 cm and 1.43 cm, what
proportion of the samples meets specifications?
P(1.39 < x < 1.43) = P ( (1.39-1.41)/0.01 < (x-μ)/σ < (1.43-1.41)/0.01) = P(-2 < z < 2)
= (2) - (-2) = 0.977250 - 0.022750 = 0.9545

Q5) The manufacturing of semiconductor chips produces 2% defective chips. Assume that the
chips are independent and that a lot contains 1000 chips. Approximate the following
probabilities:
(a) More than 25 chips are defective.
Defects in the semiconductor chips follow Binomial distribution. We can approximate it
using Normal distribution
μ = np = 1000 (0.02) = 20
σ = √(np (1-p)) = √(20 (1-0.02)) = 4.427
P ( x > 25) = P ( (x- μ / σ > (25 – 20) /4.427) = P (z > 1.129) = 1 - (1.129) =
From + z normal distribution table (1.129) ≈ (1.13) = 0.870762
Then P ( x > 25) = 1 - 0.870762 =0.129238

(b) Between 20 and 30 chips are defective.


P (20 < X < 30 ) = P( (20 – 20)/4.427 < (x-μ)/σ < (30-20)/4.427) = P ( 0 < z < 2.259) =
= (2.259) - (0)
From From + z normal distribution table (0) = 0.5, and (2.259) ≈ (2.26) ≈ 0.988089
Then P (20 < X < 30 ) = 0.988089 – 0.5 = 0.488089

Q6) The size of silver particles in a photographic emulsion is known to have a log normal
distribution with a mean of 0.001 mm and a standard deviation of 0.002 mm.
(a) Determine the parameter values for the lognormal distribution.
𝑺𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
x = size of silver particles in mm
The variables of the lognormal distribution are 𝜽 𝑨𝑵𝑫 𝝎𝟐

𝟐 ⁄𝟐
𝑬(𝒙) = 𝒆𝜽+𝝎 = 𝐞𝐱𝐩(𝜽 + 𝝎𝟐 ⁄𝟐) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏

𝟐 𝟐
𝑽(𝒙) = 𝒆𝟐𝜽+𝝎 (𝒆𝝎 − 𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟐 [𝐞𝐱𝐩(𝝎𝟐 ) − 𝟏] = (𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐)𝟐
𝐞𝐱𝐩(𝝎𝟐 ) = 𝟏 + 𝟒 = 𝟓
𝝎𝟐 = 𝒍𝒏𝟓 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟎𝟗 … … ∗
𝐞𝐱𝐩(𝜽 + 𝟏. 𝟔𝟎𝟗⁄𝟐) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏
(𝜽 + 𝟏. 𝟔𝟎𝟗⁄𝟐) = 𝒍𝒏𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏
𝜽 = −𝟕. 𝟕𝟏𝟐…….**

(b) What is the probability of a particle size greater than 0.005 mm?

P( x > 0.005) = P (ln x > ln 0.005)


= P ( (ln x – μ)/σ) > (ln 0.005 – (-7.712))/√1.609) = P (z > 1.903) = 1 - (1.9)
From + z normal distribution table (1.9) = 0.971283
P( x > 0.005) == 1 - 0.971283 = 0.0287

Q7) The life of automobile voltage regulators has an exponential distribution with a mean life of
six years. You purchase a six-year-old automobile, with a working voltage regulator and plan to
own it for six years.
(a) What is the probability that the voltage regulator fails during your ownership?
x = the life time of voltage regulator in years; x follows exponential distribution with
mean E(x) = 6 years, then λ = 1/6 (failure/year)
−𝟏
P (x < 6) = F (6) = 1 - 𝒆 𝟔 (𝟔) = 𝟏 − 𝒆−𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟑𝟐
(b) If your regulator fails after you own the automobile three years and it is replaced, what is the
mean time until the next failure?
The mean does not change, E(x) = 6 years

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