ZKZ 031
ZKZ 031
ZKZ 031
doi: 10.1093/ce/zkz031
Advance Access Publication Date: 24 December 2019
Homepage: https://academic.oup.com/ce
Abstract
To limit global warming and mitigate climate change, the global economy needs to decarbonize and reduce emissions
to net-zero by mid-century. The asymmetries of the global energy system necessitate the deployment of a suite of
decarbonization technologies and an all-of-the-above approach to deliver the steep CO2-emissions reductions necessary.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies that capture CO2 from industrial and power-plant point sources as well
as the ambient air and store them underground are largely seen as needed to address both the flow of emissions being
released and the stock of CO2 already in the atmosphere. Despite the pressing need to commercialize the technologies,
their large-scale deployment has been slow. Initial deployment, however, could lead to near-term cost reduction and
technology proliferation, and lowering of the overall system cost of decarbonization. As of November 2019, more
than half of global large-scale CCS facilities are in the USA, thanks to a history of sustained government support for
the technologies. Recently, the USA has seen a raft of new developments on the policy and project side signaling a
reinvigorated push to commercialize the technology. Analysing these recent developments using a policy-priorities
framework for CCS commercialization developed by the Global CCS Institute, the paper assesses the USA’s position to lead
large-scale deployment of CCS technologies to commercialization. It concludes that the USA is in a prime position due to
the political economic characteristics of its energy economy, resource wealth and innovation-driven manufacturing sector.
Graphical Abstract
Keywords: carbon capture; CCUS; energy and environment; energy system and policy; fossil energy; hydrogen
and fuel cell
600
400
200
0
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050
S2
S5
400 LED
IEA WEM
300
200
100
0
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
Fig. 1: Primary energy supply for the four illustrative pathway archetypes plus the IEA’s Faster Transition Scenario (OECD/IEA and IRENA, 2017) (a)
and their relative location in the ranges for pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (b) Reproduced by permission from
the IPCC [8].
solutions and understanding of the challenge, as well as alone. A total of more than 250 Mtpa of CO2—almost 10
its significant political economic influence. In fact, the in- times the US capture capacity today—would be available
dustrial sector offers early deployment opportunities for for capture from hydrogen, cement, steel, ethanol, am-
CCS. As of November 2019, 17 of 19 operating, large-scale monia production and natural-gas processing combined
facilities globally are in the industrial sector [14]. In the [18]. Hence, the industrial sector should be considered a
USA, 9 of 10 operating, large-scale facilities are in industry. key target for CCS deployment.
Furthermore, low-cost applications of CCS are concen- The third is the USA’s economic structure; the USA is
trated in industry, amenable to a near-term roll-out of the strongly dependent on fossil fuels, providing ideal condi-
technology that could result in significant cost reductions tions for CCS deployment. In fact, in 2018, about 80% of the
and learning-by-doing. For example, processes that pro- primary energy demand was satisfied by natural gas, coal
duce a pure stream of CO2 such as ethanol production and and petroleum [19]—a share that has been constant for the
natural-gas processing can start at $15/tCO2. last decade. Between 1983 and the great recession, the share
Further, CCS can play a key role as a low-carbon heat hovered around 85%. These long-term trends signal strong
solution and for process emissions from cement and steel rigidity of the US energy economy. The USA, due to the shale
[15]. Industrial heat emissions alone account for 10% of revolution, has also become the largest natural-gas pro-
global emissions and research has shown that many de- ducer in the world, holding this position since 2009, but also
carbonization options are more costly than CCS applica- demonstrating its ability to improve techno-economic pro-
tion [16]. Along these lines, a key to decarbonizing industry cesses through innovation. Due to its fossil-fuel-dependent
could be hydrogen, whose production from fossil resources economic structure, the USA, along with China and Russia,
can be decarbonized with CCS. In fact, the USA holds ideal ranks highest in the Global CCS Institute’s Inherent Interest
conditions for large-scale hydrogen production with CCS in CCS [20], which is a relative index based on the share
thanks to the vast availability of low-cost natural gas [17]. of fossil-fuel production and consumption, indicating an
A 2014 NETL study showed that almost 70 Mtpa of CO2 economy’s suitability for large-scale CCS deployment to di-
would be available for capture from hydrogen production versify and decarbonize its energy production.
4 | Clean Energy, 2019, Vol. XX, No. XX
However, the USA’s energy economy evidences further large-scale CCS deployment. Furthermore, the technology,
supporting factors for CCS commercialization in the near- which is also seen as essential to alleviate the existing
to-medium term, underpinning the country’s suitability. lock-in of emissions from existing infrastructure, could
The structure of its energy supply has also contributed to potentially be exported to other countries, cementing the
low energy prices in comparison to other advanced econ- USA’s leadership in innovation. Moving to a lower-carbon
omies, boosting energy security, while also strengthening economy is inevitable to contain global warming and
APPLICATIONS IN OPERATION 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+
WASTE
INCINERATION NORWAY FULL CHAIN
CEMENT
PRODUCTION
CHEMICAL INTEGRATED
PRODUCTION LAKE
SINOPEC QILU MID-
CHARLES
CONTINENT
ILLINOIS INDUSTRIAL YANCHANG METHANOL
HUB
FERTILISER
PRODUCTION ENID COFFEYVILLE ACTL AGRIUM WABASH
FERTILIZER
ABU DHABI
TERREL CENTURY UTHMANIYAH GORGON PHASE 2
(FORMALLY PLANT
VAL VERDE)
LOST CABIN
SLEIPNER
POWER
GENERATION
CARBONSAFE ILLINOIS HUB*
DRY FORK
PROJECT TUNDRA
= 1 Mtpa OF CO2 CIRCLE AREA PROPORTIONATE TO CAPACITY IN OPERATION IN CONSTRUCTION ADVANCED DEVELOPMENT
Fig. 2: Large-scale CCS projects by industry and storage type [25]. Reproduced by permission from the Global CCS Institute Ltd.
Beck | 5
demonstration of the Allam Cycle, a novel zero-emissions large-scale operating and under-construction CCS facil-
power-plant technology, at a 50MWth facility in Texas. ities. In particular, the authors assessed their incentive
The USA has traditionally been the leader in CCS de- and capital structures, alongside other enabling mechan-
ployment. Initial deployment was driven by enhanced oil isms (Fig. 3). The framework lends itself well to analysing
recovery (EOR), which has provided a value for carbon di- the maturity of the USA to accelerate the large-scale de-
oxide. This is complemented by private-sector-technology ployment of CCS:
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Fig. 3: Key incentives and project characteristics of realized-large-scale CCS projects globally [30]. Reproduced by permission from the Global CCS
Institute Ltd.
6 | Clean Energy, 2019, Vol. XX, No. XX
investment must increase with banks providing debt As mentioned above, EOR has provided a value on CO2,
financing at feasible interest rates. Currently, pro- roughly estimated at ~$15 t/CO2. Nonetheless, to date,
ject risks are perceived by banks as too high, and the only about 30% of CO2 used for EOR is from anthropogenic
cost of capital has a substantial implication for the sources, the rest is being mined from natural resources
sanction of CCS projects. As the number of CCS fa- [32]. Hence, it would be an obvious step to aim for the sub-
cilities increases, debt finance will become available stitution of mined for anthropogenic sources, opening up
Power Industrial
plants facilities DAC 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Onwards
DIRECT AIR CCS AT OIL & GAS CCS AT REFINERIES ALL OTHER CCS
CAPTURE PRODUCTION PROJECTS PROJECTS (E.G. CCS
PROJECTS FACILITIES WITH ETHANOL)
Anywhere, provided
Anywhere, provided they Anywhere, provided they
Location of they sell the
Anywhere in the world sell the transportation sell the transportation fuel
CCS project transportation fuel in
fuel in California in California
California
Storage site Onshore saline or depleted oil and gas reservoirs, or oil and gas reservoirs used for CO2-EOR
Fig. 4: Types of CCS projects qualifying for credits under the LCFS [37]. Reproduced by permissions from the Global CCS Institute Ltd.
8 | Clean Energy, 2019, Vol. XX, No. XX
Engineering Design (FEED) Studies, research grants, tech- mid-west, an ethanol hub, to the Permian Basin could en-
nology development and related activities, all of which can able an additional 30 Mtpa of CO2 to be stored, doubling the
reduce risk and entry cost. It also provides a loan guar- US storage of anthropogenic sources. Should the govern-
antee for advanced fossil-energy projects that include CCS ment finance only half of the pipeline, CO2 storage would
to support projects in securing affordable financing. In drop to 19 Mtpa [47]. The study also found that the net-
total, there are $8.5 billion in loan guarantees available. So work would not be feasible without government finance
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