Tutorial 6 Solution

Question 1:
(a) Number of households will have a positive influence on the number of work trips. If there
are more households in a TAZ, more people are likely to travel to work.
Number of elderly people will have a negative influence on the number of work trips. If
there are more elderly people in a TAZ, less people are likely to travel to work.
Number of vehicles will have a positive influence on the number of work trips. If there more
vehicles in a TAZ, more people are likely to drive their vehicles to work.

(b) No. of households in the region in 2018 and 2031 is 8840 and 15500, respectively. Sample
calculation for TAZ 1 is as follows:
1200
No. of households in 2031 = 15500 = 0.136 15500 = 2104
8840
TAZ 2018 No. of Households Proportion 2031 No. of Households
1 1200 0.136 2104
2 800 0.090 1403
3 1394 0.158 2444
4 632 0.071 1108
5 851 0.096 1492
6 850 0.096 1490
7 1876 0.212 3289
8 430 0.049 754
9 419 0.047 735
10 388 0.044 680
Total 8840 15500

(c) No. of elderly people in the region in 2018 and 2031 is 381 and 762 (= 381 ´ 2), respectively.
Sample calculation for TAZ 1 is as follows:
100
No. of elderly people in 2031 =  762 = 0.262  762 = 200
381
TAZ 2018 No. of elderly people Proportion 2031 No. of elderly people
1 100 0.262 200
2 4 0.010 8
3 9 0.024 18
4 52 0.136 104
5 36 0.094 72
6 7 0.018 14
7 2 0.005 4
8 24 0.063 48
9 82 0.215 164
10 65 0.171 130
Total 381 762
(d) 2018 avg. no. of vehicles per household = 2018 no. of vehicles / 2018 no. of households.
Sample calculation for TAZ 1 is as follows:
No. of vehicles in 2031 = 2018 avg. no. of vehicles per household ´ 2031 no. of households
1068
No. of vehicles in 2031 =  2104 = 0.89  2104 = 1873
1200
2018 No. of 2018 No. of 2018 Avg. no. 2031 No. of
TAZ
households vehicles of veh. per HH vehicles
1 1200 1068 0.89 1873
2 800 700 0.88 1227
3 1394 300 0.22 526
4 632 300 0.47 526
5 851 757 0.89 1327
6 850 1000 1.18 1753
7 1876 1000 0.53 1753
8 430 300 0.70 526
9 419 50 0.12 88
10 388 345 0.89 605

(e) Result of linear regression

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95
R Square 0.90
Adjusted R Square 0.86
Standard Error 154.71
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1346917.9 448972.6 18.8 0.0019
Residual 6 143612.2 23935.4
Total 9 1490530.1

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 599.039 148.268 4.040 0.007 236.240 961.838 236.240 961.838
Number of households 0.314 0.142 2.210 0.069 -0.034 0.663 -0.034 0.663
Number of elderly people -5.768 1.584 -3.641 0.011 -9.644 -1.891 -9.644 -1.891
Number of vehicles 0.408 0.177 2.309 0.060 -0.024 0.840 -0.024 0.840

Since the value of R2 (= 0.90) is close to 1, the model fit is good. Since the values of t-
statistics are greater than 1.96, all three parameters are statistically significant. The equation
of work-trip generation model is as follows:

Ti = 599 .039 + 0.314 H i − 5.768 Ei + 0.408Vi

(f) The effect of each parameter is explained as follows:
- The positive parameter of the number of households indicates that more households in a
TAZ increase work-trip generation.
- The negative parameter of the number of elderly people indicates that more elderly
people in a TAZ decrease work-trip generation.
- The positive parameter of the number of vehicles indicates that more vehicles in a TAZ
increase work-trip generation.
These effects are consistent with the predicted effects in part (a).

(g) Number of work trips in each TAZ in 2031 is predicted using the linear regression in part (e).
Sample calculation for TAZ 1 is as follows:

Ti = 599 .039 + 0.314 (2104 ) − 5.768 (200 ) + 0.408 (1873 ) = 871

TAZ 2031 No. of work trips

1 871
2 1495
3 1478
4 562
5 1194
6 1702
7 2326
8 774
9 0*
10 310

Note: In TAZ 9, the no. of work trips is assumed to be zero since the predicted no. of work
trips is less than zero (= -80).