Intrinsic Value Calculator (Discounted Free Cash Flow Method 10 Years)

Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 41

Intrinsic Value Calculat

(Be con

KEY IN THE VALUES IN THE WHITE BOXES


Name of Stock

Stock Symbol GOOG

Free Cash Flow (Current) USD$ 42,843.00 millions

Total Debt (Short Term + LT Debt) USD$ 15,032.00 millions

Cash and Short Term Investments USD$ 136,694.00 millions

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Yr 1 - 5) 22.32%

Free Cash Flow growth rate (Yr 6 - 10) 10.00%

No. of Shares Outstanding 674.1 millions

Year 2022 2023 2024


Free Cash Flow (Projected) $52,405.56 $64,102.48 $78,410.15
Discount Factor 0.95 0.90 0.85
Discounted Value $49,626.48 $57,484.00 $66,585.63

Intrinsic Value C
(Discounted Ca
$200,000
$180,000
Value

$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
1 2 3 4
Cash Flow (Projected)
Cash Flow (Discounted)
Calculator (Discounted Free Cash Flow Method 10 years)
(Be consistent with the denominations used. Usually Millions $)

PV of 10 yr Free Cash Flow USD$ 845,904.9 millions

Intrinsic Value before cash/debt USD$ 1,254.79

less Debt per Share USD$ 22.30

Plus (+) Cash Per Share USD$ 202.77

Final Intrinsic Value Per Share


22.320% (in Statement Currency) USD$ 1,435.26

Final Intrinsic Value Per Share


17.54% (in Stock Currency) USD$ 1,435.26

(Discount)/Premium 55.01%

Last Close USD$ 2,224.75

Current Year 2021 NB: Take the last Fiscal Year a

Discount Rate 5.6%

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


$95,911.30 $117,318.70 $129,050.57 $141,955.63 $156,151.19 $171,766.31
0.80 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65 0.61
$77,128.36 $89,340.35 $93,062.86 $96,940.48 $100,979.67 $105,187.16

trinsic Value Calculator


Discounted Cash Flow Method 10 years)

5 6 7 8 9 10

Year
od 10 years)

845,904.9 millions Statement Currency USD$

1,254.79 Stock Currency USD$

22.30

202.77

1,435.26 1 USD$ = 1.0000 USD$

1,435.26

NB: Take the last Fiscal Year as the Current Year

2031
$188,942.94
0.58
$109,569.95

9 10
Intrinsic Value Calculat
(Be con

KEY IN THE VALUES IN THE WHITE BOXES


Name of Stock

Stock Symbol ACES

Free Cash Flow (Current) IDR$ 986,666.38 millions

Total Debt (Short Term + LT Debt) IDR$ 815,535.53 millions

Cash and Short Term Investments IDR$ ###

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Yr 1 - 5) 12.87%

Free Cash Flow growth rate (Yr 6 - 10) 6.44%

Free Cash Flow Growth Rate (Yr 11 - 20) -1.50%

No. of Shares Outstanding 17,087.6 millions

Year 2022 2023 2024


Free Cash Flow (Projected) $1,113,650.34 $1,256,977.14 $1,418,750.10
Discount Factor 0.93 0.86 0.79
Discounted Value $1,030,203.83 $1,075,662.41 $1,123,126.89

Year 2032 2033 2034


Free Cash Flow (Projected) $2,431,764.47 $2,395,288.00 $2,359,358.68
Discount Factor 0.42 0.39 0.36
Discounted Value $1,032,378.32 $940,696.25 $857,156.15

Intrinsic Value Calculat


(Discounted Cash Flow
$3,000,000
Value

$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Intrinsic Value Calculat
(Discounted Cash Flow
$3,000,000
Value

$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Cash Flow (Projected)
Cash Flow (Discounted)

Discount Rate for US Stocks

BETA DISCOUNT RATE


Less than 0.80 4.6%
Calculator (Discounted Free Cash Flow Method 20 years)
(Be consistent with the denominations used. Usually Millions $)

PV of 20 yr Free Cash Flow IDR$ 18,509,450.0 millio

Intrinsic Value before cash/debt IDR$ 1,083.21

less Debt per Share IDR$ 47.73


2019

Plus (+) Cash Per Share IDR$ 73.84

Final Intrinsic Value Per Share


(in Statement Currency) IDR$ 1,109.32

Final Intrinsic Value Per Share


(in Stock Currency) IDR$ 1,109.32

(Discount)/Premium 35.22%

Last Close IDR$ 1,500.00

Current Year 2021 NB: Take the last Fiscal Year a

Discount Rate 8.1%

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030


$1,601,343.24 $1,807,436.11 $1,923,744.63 $2,047,537.59 $2,179,296.64 $2,319,534.38
0.73 0.68 0.63 0.58 0.54 0.50
$1,172,685.77 $1,224,431.48 $1,205,572.29 $1,187,003.57 $1,168,720.86 $1,150,719.75

2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040


$2,323,968.30 $2,289,108.78 $2,254,772.14 $2,220,950.56 $2,187,636.30 $2,154,821.76
0.34 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.23
$781,034.98 $711,673.87 $648,472.49 $590,883.81 $538,409.40 $490,595.06

Value Calculator
ed Cash Flow Method 20 years)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Value Calculator
ed Cash Flow Method 20 years)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year

Discount Rate for China/HK Stocks

BETA DISCOUNT RATE


Less than 0.80 8.1%
od 20 years)

18,509,450.0 millions Statement Currency IDR$

1,083.21 Stock Currency IDR$

47.73

73.84

1,109.32 1 IDR$ = 1.0000 IDR$

1,109.32

NB: Take the last Fiscal Year as the Current Year

2031
$2,468,796.41
0.46
$1,132,995.90

2041
$2,122,499.43
0.21
$447,026.95

17 18 19 20
17 18 19 20
DASHBOARD
NOTE: EVERYTHING IN THIS PAGE IS AUTO-CALCULATED

Breakdown by Holdings (Market Value)

Breakdown by Holding
(% of Current Market V

50.0%
Breakdown by Category (Market Value)
TOTAL

Category Count Market Value (in USD)

Cyclical 0 $ -

Deep Value 0 $ -

Dividend 1 $ 2,348.48

ETF 2 $ 2,841.73

Large Growth 1 $ 1,876.40

Predictable 0 $ -

Speculative Growth 0 $ -

Turnarounds 0 $ -

TOTAL 4 $ 7,066.61

Total - Breakdown by Category


(% of Current Market Value in USD)
Cyclical Deep Value Dividend
ETF Large Growth Predictable
Speculative Growth Turnarounds
Large Growth
26.6%
Dividend
33.2%

ETF
40.2%

Geographical Breakdown
Country Count Market Value (in USD)
US 1 $ 1,876.40

China 1 $ 1,621.08

Hong Kong 1 $ 1,220.65

Singapore 1 $ 2,348.48

TOTAL 4 $ 7,066.61

Geographical Breakdown
(% of Current Market Value in USD)
US China Hong Kong Singapore

US
26.6%
Singapore
33.2%
China
22.9%
Hong Kong
17.3%

©️2020 Piranha Ltd. All rights reserved.


TO-CALCULATED

Breakdown by Holdings
(% of Current Market Value in USD)

MSFT
13.3%

ASHR
11.5%

3033
8.6%

CSFU
16.6%
CSFU
16.6%

US
Percentage by Market Category Count
Value

0.0% Cyclical 0

0.0% Deep Value 0

33.2% Dividend 0

40.2% ETF 0

26.6% Large Growth 1

0.0% Predictable 0

0.0% Speculative Growth 0

0.0% Turnarounds 0

100.0% TOTAL 1

ry US - Breakdown by Category
n USD) (% of Current Market Value in USD)
Dividend Cyclical Deep Value Dividend
Predictable ETF Large Growth Predictable
Speculative Growth Turnarounds
Dividend
33.2%

Large Growth
100.0%

Percentage by Market
Value
26.6%

22.9%

17.3%

33.2%

100.0%

in USD)
ore

US
26.6%
China
22.9%
MSFT
ASHR
3033
CSFU
China

Market Value (in USD) Percentage by Market Category


Value

$ - 0.0% Cyclical

$ - 0.0% Deep Value

$ - 0.0% Dividend

$ - 0.0% ETF

$ 1,876.40 100.0% Large Growth

$ - 0.0% Predictable

$ - 0.0% Speculative Growth

$ - 0.0% Turnarounds

$ 1,876.40 100.0% TOTAL

own by Category China - Breakdown by


nt Market Value in USD) (% of Current Market
Deep Value Dividend Cyclical Deep V
Large Growth Predictable ETF Large G
wth Turnarounds Speculative Growth Turnar
Large Growth
ETF
100.0%
100.0%
Count Market Value (in USD) Percentage by Market
Value

0 $ - 0.0%

0 $ - 0.0%

0 $ - 0.0%

1 $ 1,621.08 100.0%

0 $ - 0.0%

0 $ - 0.0%

0 $ - 0.0%

0 $ - 0.0%

1 $ 1,621.08 100.0%

China - Breakdown by Category Hong


(% of Current Market Value in USD) (% of
Cyclical Deep Value Dividend Cyclical
ETF Large Growth Predictable ETF
Speculative Growth Turnarounds Specula
ETF
100.0%
Hong Kong

Category Count Market Value (in USD) Percentage by Market


Value

Cyclical 0 $ - 0.0%

Deep Value 0 $ - 0.0%

Dividend 0 $ - 0.0%

ETF 1 $ 1,220.65 100.0%

Large Growth 0 $ - 0.0%

Predictable 0 $ - 0.0%

Speculative Growth 0 $ - 0.0%

Turnarounds 0 $ - 0.0%

TOTAL 1 $ 1,220.65 100.0%

Hong Kong - Breakdown by Category


(% of Current Market Value in USD)
Cyclical Deep Value Dividend
ETF Large Growth Predictable
Speculative Growth Turnarounds
ETF
100.0%
Singapore

Category Count Market Value (in USD)

Cyclical 0 $ -

Deep Value 0 $ -

Dividend 1 $ 2,348.48

ETF 0 $ -

Large Growth 0 $ -

Predictable 0 $ -

Speculative Growth 0 $ -

Turnarounds 0 $ -

TOTAL 1 $ 2,348.48

Singapore - Breakdown by Category


(% of Current Market Value in USD)
Cyclical Deep Value Dividend
ETF Large Growth Predictable
Speculative Growth Turnarounds
Dividend
100.0%
Percentage by Market
Value

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

ategory
n USD)
Dividend
Predictable
PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Cash USD $4,275.00
Equity Position $7,066.61
Net Liquidation $11,341.61

Stock Information Currency

Listed
# Ticker Name Sector Category Country
Currency

Large
1 MSFT Microsoft Technology US USD
Growth

2 ASHR CSI 3000 China ALL ETF China USD


A-Shares ETF

HS Tech Index
3 3033 ETF Technology ETF Hong Kong HKD

4 CSFU Cromwell REIT Real Estate Dividend Singapore SGD


(SGD)

10

11
12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

©️2020 Piranha Ltd. All rights reserved.


Allocation Cost Valuation

Exchange
Intrinsic
Rate Avg Cost
Planned Allocation Valuation Value
(1 USD to xxx Quantity (in Listed
(in Listed Currency) Date (in Listed
Listed Currency)
Currency)
Currency)

1.00 $ 2,000.00 8 $ 168.37 01 Jan 21 $ 253.00

1.00 $ 2,000.00 38 $ 38.00 NA NA

7.75 $ 16,000.00 1000 $ 8.42 NA NA

1.32 $ 2,650.00 4000 $ 0.61 30 Jan 21 $ 1.01


Cost in USD Allocation in USD
Dividend Price NOTE: THIS IS AUTO-CALCULATED

Total Dividend
Current Price Planned
Received Avg Cost Total Cost
(in Listed Allocation % Allocated
(in Listed (in USD) (in USD)
Currency) (in USD)
Currency)

NA $ 234.55 $ 168.37 $ 1,346.96 $ 2,000.00 67.3%

NA $ 42.66 $ 38.00 $ 1,444.00 $ 2,000.00 72.2%

NA $ 9.46 $ 1.09 $ 1,086.45 $ 2,064.52 52.6%

$ 880.00 $ 0.78 $ 0.46 $ 1,848.48 $ 2,007.58 92.1%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%
$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

$ - $ - $ - 0.0%

TOTAL $ 5,725.90 $ 8,072.09


Discount/Premium Market Value Dividend

Total
% of Portfolio % Change
Intrinsic Value Discount / Current Price Market Value Dividend
(by Market (excludes
(in USD) Premium (in USD) (in USD) Received
Value) Dividend)
(in USD)

$ 253.00 -7.3% $ 234.55 $ 1,876.40 26.6% 39.3% NA

NA NA $ 42.66 $ 1,621.08 22.9% 12.3% NA

NA NA $ 1.22 $ 1,220.65 17.3% 12.4% NA

$ 0.77 -23.3% $ 0.59 $ 2,348.48 33.2% 27.0% $ 666.67

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -
NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

NA NA $ - $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ -

$ 7,066.61 100.0% $ 666.67


Total
Dividend % Change
Received (includes
(% of Total Dividend)
Cost)

0.0% 39.3%

0.0% 12.3%

0.0% 12.4%

36.1% 63.1%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%
NOTE: You can expand the DATA VALIDATION for each category by adding a new
row to the category!

Sector
ALL
Communication Services
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Materials
Real Estate
Technology
Utilities

Country
US
China
Hong Kong
Singapore

Category
Cyclical
Deep Value
Dividend
ETF
Large Growth
Predictable
Speculative Growth
Turnarounds

You might also like