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Binomial Distribution 23feb

The document discusses the binomial probability distribution for modeling the probability of success in n independent yes/no trials with probability p of success on each trial. It then gives an example where the number of students going to college is modeled out of n=17 randomly selected students with probability of going to college p=0.67. It calculates various probabilities for this example, such as: - The mean number of students going to college is 11.39 - The probability fewer than 15 will go to college is 0.9532 - The probability exactly 15 will go to college is 0.0364 - The probability more than 13 will go to college is 0.1366 - The probability of 9-13

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66 views2 pages

Binomial Distribution 23feb

The document discusses the binomial probability distribution for modeling the probability of success in n independent yes/no trials with probability p of success on each trial. It then gives an example where the number of students going to college is modeled out of n=17 randomly selected students with probability of going to college p=0.67. It calculates various probabilities for this example, such as: - The mean number of students going to college is 11.39 - The probability fewer than 15 will go to college is 0.9532 - The probability exactly 15 will go to college is 0.0364 - The probability more than 13 will go to college is 0.1366 - The probability of 9-13

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If outcome of a random experiment can be categorized in to two categories of success & failure with probability p

and (1-p), then if the experiment is repeated n-times independently, the probability of k success in n-independent
trial is given by

P(X=k)=nCk pk(1-p)n-k k=0,1,2,3………………n


And, we say random variable X follows normal distribution with parameter n and p.

Now we have a similar situation kind of situation as described above where random selection of 17 high school
students may result in a success i.e. selection of a of a student going college with probability p=67%=0.67

Further, for n=17, the number of randomly selected students and X=30, the number of rural hospitals selected,

Number of trials, n= 17
Probability of going to a college , p= 0.67
Probability of exactly x-students going college in n-independently randomly selected student given by binomial
probability law ,
P(X=x)=nCxpx(1-p)(n-x)
P(X=x)=17Cx(0.67)x(1-0.67)(17-x)

(a)
The Mean of binomial distribution is given by
Mean=np
Hence, plugging the relevant values in the above formula:

Mean=17*0.67=11.39

Mean=11.39
And, standard deviation is given by

Standard Deviation=npq

Standard Deviation=17*0.67*(1-0.67)=3.7587

Standard Deviation=3.759
(b)
Probability that fewer than 15 will go college
=P(X<15)
=1-P(X≥15)

=1-P(X=15 or X=16 or X=17)


=1-[P(X=15) +P( X=16) + P(X=17)]
=1-[17C15*(0.67)15(1-0.67)(17-15) +17C16*(0.67)16(1-0.67)(17-16) + 17C17*(0.67)17(1-0.67)(17-17)]
=1-[0.036449+0.009250+0.001105]
=0.9532

The probability is 0.9532.

(c)
Probability that exactly 15 will go college
=P(X=15)
=17C15*(0.67)15(1-0.67)(17-15)
=0.0364

The Probability is 0.0364.


(d)

Probability that more than 13 will go college


=P(X>13)
=P(X=14 or X=15 or X=16 or X=17)
= P(X=14) +P(X=15) +P( X=16) + P(X=17)]
=17C14*(0.67)14(1-0.67)(17-14) + 17C15*(0.67)15(1-0.67)(17-15) +17C16*(0.67)16(1-0.67)(17-16) + 17C17*(0.67)17(1-0.67)(17-17)]
=0.089763+0.036449+0.009250+0.001105
=0.1366

The Probability is 0.1366.

(e)
Probability that 9,10,11,12 or 13 will go college
=P(X=9 or X=10 or X=11 or X=12 or X=13)
=P(X=9) +P( X=10) +P(X=11) +P(X=12) +P(X=13)
=17C9*(0.67)9(1-0.67)8 +17C10*(0.67)10(1-0.67)7+17C11*(0.67)11(1-0.67)6+17C12*(0.67)12(1-0.67)5+ 17C13*(0.67)13(1-0.67)4
=0.093019+0.151085+0.195203+0.198161+0.154741
=0.7922

The Probability is 0.7922.

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