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Assignment 1 Stochastic Processes

The document defines the probability of outcomes from a coin flip (H=heads, T=tails) and answering yes or no (Y, N). It calculates the probability of answering no as 0.75 by summing the probabilities of no given heads and no given tails, weighted by the coin flip probabilities. It then uses Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of heads given the answer was no as 0.667.

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Ali Khan
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53 views

Assignment 1 Stochastic Processes

The document defines the probability of outcomes from a coin flip (H=heads, T=tails) and answering yes or no (Y, N). It calculates the probability of answering no as 0.75 by summing the probabilities of no given heads and no given tails, weighted by the coin flip probabilities. It then uses Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of heads given the answer was no as 0.667.

Uploaded by

Ali Khan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Solution:-

Let the events be defined as follows:

H = { outcome of a coin flip is heads }


T = { outcome of a coin flip is tails }
N = { answer is, “No” }
Y = { answer is “Yes” }

Probabilities of the events H, T being equally likely = 0.5


Probability of N given H is a certain event. So P( N ∨H) = 1
Probability of N given T = P( N ∨T ) = 0.5

P( N )=P( N ∨H) P(H )+ P(N∨T ) P(T )=1× 0.5+0.5 ×0.5=0.75

P( H ∨N )=?

Using Bayes’ theorem

P( H ∨N ) P(N )=P ¿

P( H ∨N )=P ¿ ¿

So the probability of saying “No” given that the outcome of flipped coin was “Heads” =
0.667

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