Intelligence Inst. Manual
Intelligence Inst. Manual
SAGE Publishing
Instructor’s Manual
Chapter 1: What Is Intelligence?
Why is intelligence thought by some to be difficult to define?
o Why is intelligence seen as problematic to define, especially in a democracy?
These problematic aspects include secrecy, intrusive means of intelligence
collection and covert operations.
o Vocabulary: we tend to use “clandestine” and “covert” interchangeably but they
have distinct meanings. “Clandestine” means secret but attributable. “Covert”
means secret but not attributable.
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This chapter traces the development of U.S. intelligence through a series of themes and
through key events. For each of these, you can ask what it is about and why it is seen as a
major factor in the development of U.S. intelligence. Key questions that can be posed are listed
Major Themes
o Novelty of U.S. Intelligence. Why was the U.S. so late in developing permanent or
major intelligence agencies?
o Threat-based foreign policy. The U.S. is the guarantor of the international status
quo. Why? Whom did we succeed? What are the policy and intelligence
implications of this rile? (NOTE: as will be discussed later, we seek not only to
deter threats but to pursue opportunities.)
o Influence of the Cold War? Was U.S. intelligence created to fight the Cold War?
In what ways did this 50 year struggle influence the development of U.S.
intelligence?
o A wittingly redundant analytical structure? What factors and philosophies
explain the analytical structure with several agencies analyzing the same issue?
Explain the concept of competitive intelligence analysis.
o Consumer-produce relations. What have been the choices within this
relationship? What are the implications of each model? Which model won out
and why?
o The relationship between analysis and collection and between analysis and
covert action. Again, what have been the choices within these relationships?
What are the implications of each model? Which models won out and why?
o Covert action. What have been the key issues in the ongoing debate over covert
action? (NOTE: make sure the class understands what we mean by “covert
action.”) What are some recent examples of this debate?
o Continuity of intelligence policy. How do we account for the early existence of
and then the breakdown of a bipartisan intelligence policy? How would you
characterize that today: partisan or bipartisan? Can you define Democratic or
Republican approaches to intelligence policy?
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o Heavy reliance on technology? Give some examples of this reliance. Why does
the U.S. favor this approach?
o Secrecy vs. openness. This is a key issue in managing intelligence in a democracy.
What are the key challenges to any choice in this sphere? Give some recent
examples. Does this change over time? Why? There have been recent calls for
more “transparency” in intelligence? How do we do that and maintain necessary
security?
o The role of oversight. What do we mean by “oversight”? What are the tensions
in this aspect on intelligence policy?
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o ABM Treaty and SALT I Accord, 1972. What were they? What was the role of
intelligence? What were the key intelligence controversies? What is the
difference between monitoring and verification?
o Intelligence investigations, 1974-75. What were these about? What prompted
them? What were the outcomes for U.S. intelligence? (Creation of the modern
congressional oversight system)
o Iran, 1979. To what extent can the Khomeini revolution be blamed on the 1953
Iran coup? How do you then assess the 1953 coup?
o Iran-Contra, 1986-87. What was this about? Why did it create such an intense
political crisis? Should President Reagan have been impeached?
o Fall of the Soviet Union, 1989-91. Did U.S. intelligence “miss” this event? To
what degree and in how much detail should this have been known? (NOTE: this
will be discussed in detail in Chapter 11.)
o The Ames (1994) and Hanssen (2001) espionage cases. What do these two cases
tell us about the nature of espionage? About counterintelligence?
o The 9/11 attacks and the War on terrorists, 2011-ff). To what degree is 9/11
comparable to and different from Pearl Harbor? To what degree was it
preventable? What have been the major stresses for intelligence in the war on
terrorists?
o Iraq WMD, 2002-03. Assess the damage done to the reputation and standing of
U.S. intelligence as a result of the WMD NIE. Was the NIE politicized?
o Creation of the DNI, 2004-05. What were the key factors in the creation of the
DNI? How responsive was the position of DNI these various factors?
o The Manning and Snowden Leaks. How did these happen? How might they
affect information sharing within intelligence? How damaging have they been?
Figure 3-3, A Functional View: this affords a most useful way to discuss who does what
in U.S. intelligence
o Discuss the main actors and their roles in each horizontal band.
o Again, note the disparity between the areas that come under the DNI and those
under the Secretary of Defense.
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Requirements
o What are requirements? Why do they matter? Who should create them: policy
makers? Intelligence officers? Both?
o What are some of the issues in crafting useful Requirements:
Focus – cannot be all embracing
Importance vs. likelihood
Priority creep
Requirements are not a forecast –they are a statement of needs
Ad hocs: dealing with the unexpected (ex. Mali; Ukraine crisis)
Collection
o Collection should derive from requirements. What are the other issues?
(Collection capabilities; which capabilities are best for which issues?)
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o Choosing the right means to get the right intelligence when it is needed to the
right policy maker or policy makers
o The importance of a diversified intelligence “product line”
o The importance of knowing what specific policy makers like or how they like to
receive their intelligence
o What are some of the choices to be made? (Length, detail, timeliness)
Feedback
o Policy makers rarely give feedback on the intelligence they receive. Why? What
are the impediments?
Collection Themes
o Budget. Collection is one the most expensive aspects of intelligence. (The other
major expense areas are IT and people.)How do you determine how much to
spend – or not – on collection?
o Long lead times. It takes 10-12 years to build major collection systems. How do
we determine what they should be collecting against by the time they are
deployed? Also, politically, there s little tolerance for failure. Compare this to the
Corona experience of over 12 launches before there was success.
o Collection synergy. When working optimally, each INT, or collection discipline
either confirms or questions other collection. Either is useful. The Cuban Missile
Crisis collection experience is illustrative.
o The Vacuum cleaner problem. Overhead collection systems are vacuum cleaners,
not microscopes. They collect a great deal of information, which then leads to
the need for processing & exploitation. The NSA program was justified, in part,
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by the argument that if you want to find a needle in a haystack, first you need a
haystack.
o The P&E Imbalance. Why does the system favor collection over P&E?
o Competing collection priorities. Back to requirements. Given the limited number
of collection systems, who decides on what gets collected and on what basis?
o Collection swarm ball. What do we mean by this? Why does it occur? (Budget
imperatives.) Why is it problematic? (INTs working on issues for which they are
not optimally built.)
o Protecting sources and methods. The need to do this should be obvious but what
are the costs of this system – beyond the financial? (Limits the use of some
intelligence; makes information sharing – another imperative, more difficult or
more risky, as in the cases of Manning and Snowden.)
o Limitations of satellites. This is rocket science. What are the different orbits?
What are they used for?
o The stovepipes problem. What do we mean by this term? Why is it a problem?
What drives it? (In part, bureaucratic imperatives of the “owners” of the
collection agencies.)
o The opacity of intelligence. What are the reasons that collection capabilities
seem opaque to many analysts? (In part, collectors like it that way to maintain
control of their assets.)
o Denial and deception. What are the differences between these two activities?
What are the constraints to overcoming D&D? How do you know when you are
being deceived – as opposed to there being nothing there?
o Reconnaissance in the post-Cold War world? How did the end of the cold War
change collection techniques? How will a diminution of the emphasis on
terrorists affect collection?
o Satellite vulnerability? What are the ways in which satellites can be better
defended? What are the costs of doing so? (Protective shells, but more weight,
which means less fuel or fewer sensors.)
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What are the different types of cover (official and non-official or NOCs)?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of each? Is one or the other
better suited for certain types of targets?
What are sleepers, dangles and walk-ins?
o Open source intelligence (OSINT)
Who does OSINT? (The DNI’s Open Source Center but also individual
analysts)
What does OSINT Collect? (80% of all collection is OSINT. It is the best
place to start a collection effort rather than go directly to classified
sources.)
What is circular reporting? (When one OSINT source after another picks
up a story and it keeps getting reported increasing the volume of
reporting but not necessarily the substance.)
What are the uses and limits of social media as an intelligence source?
o Foreign liaison
What is it? Why is it used? What are the risks and benefits?
Recommendation: posit several scenarios (e.g., Iranian WMD; Al Qaeda planning; Euro
meltdown, etc. and ask which INTs would be most and least useful for this issue and
why.
Chapter 6: Analysis
Major Themes
Formal Requirements
o How much do they really matter in assigning analysis? In other words, given the
inevitability of “ad hoc” issues, how do you prepare to be able to analyze either
or both?
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o What is meant by “analyst fungibility”? Why does it matter? What are the
limits?
o Analysts must deal with various “traps”. What do these mean:
Mirror imaging
Clientism
Layering
Linear thinking
Premature closure
Jaded thinking
Groupthink
Analytical Issues
Given the absence of “perfect intelligence,” how do you deal with analysis when
available intelligence is limited?
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o How does one determine how “good” (i.e., how correct) intelligence should be
how often? (NOTE: There is no single way. It depends, in part, on the question
being posed.)
Chapter 7: Counterintelligence
Definitions
o What do we mean by counterintelligence?
o What do we mean by counterespionage?
o What is the difference between Big CI and Little CI?
The United States does not have an Official Secrets Act. Most leak cases are
prosecuted under the 1917 Espionage Act. Discuss the shortcomings of this approach
and the political issues inherent in proposing an Official Secrets Act at this time.
Exercise: You identify a spy in your organization. What are the options for dealing
with this? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the options?
o Apprehend to staunch the flow or use the spy as a way of feeding some false
information back to his masters?)
What are some of the factors that should be considered in weighing a possible covert
action?
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The range of covert action. Discuss what happens under each type of activity and ask
about the purposes, presumed outcomes, and inherent dangers of each.
o Propaganda
o Political activity
o Economic activity
o Sabotage
o Subversion
o Coups
o Paramilitary operations
Why does the policy maker matter? Also, remember the illustration in Chapter 1
regarding the dominance of policy over intelligence.
The U.S. policy community on any given issue is large and diverse. What are the main
interests of each of the major players? What does this tell you about the policy
process?
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Describe the role played by policy makers in each phase of the policy process:
o Requirements: these should be decided by policy makers
o Collection: budgets; the acceptability or not of various techniques
o Analysis: how they consume intelligence; how they react to bad news; whether
they trust their intelligence analysts. Do they try to alter intelligence analyses?
o Covert action: requirements; acceptability of certain operations or types of
operations.
Congressional Oversight
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Hearings: the real issue is the constant information war between the two
branches.
Nominations
Treaties: note the 2/3 vote required in the Senate
Reporting requirements: another facet of the information war. At what
point do these become overwhelming and stop being useful?
Investigations & reports
o Issues in Congressional Oversight
How much oversight is enough? This is. Ultimately, a political – not
constitutional – question.
Why are all congressional members granted a Top Secret by virtue of
election? (Necessary for them to do their jobs and to do otherwise would
violate separation of powers.)
What is the co-option issue for Congress? Is it avoidable?
o Dynamics of Congressional Oversight
Why do Members wish to serve on intelligence committees? What are
the advantages and disadvantages of doing so?
Should there be term limits on intelligence committees? (Advantages and
disadvantages of these?)
Should the intelligence committees be partisan or bi-partisan?
(Advantages and disadvantages of these?)
What are some of the external factors that affect intelligence oversight?
Media, events, lobbying groups for and against, etc.
The Courts
What is the role and purpose of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC)?
o What are some of the major issues related to the FISC?
Secrecy
“One-sided” hearings
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We study the Soviet issue because it is a classic nation state issue and also because of
the influence this had on the shaping and work of U.S. intelligence.
o Intelligence requirements. Under containment, what did U.S. intelligence seek to
know about the Soviet Union?
Likely areas of Soviet probes or expansion;
Imminence and strength of the probes;
Overall Soviet strength—military, economic, and social;
Likely Soviet allies or surrogates;
Strength of U.S. allies or surrogates;
Signs of relative Soviet strength or weakness (signs of the contradictions
predicted by George Kennan).
o Why was the Soviet Union such a difficult intelligence target?
Secrecy, police state, size
o Why did U.S. intelligence emphasize military issues and statistical data?
Threat, ease
o Capabilities vs. Intentions. What are the issues? Why does this matter?
o How would you assess U.S. intelligence performance re the collapse of the Soviet
Union?
What are the intelligence implications of the Obama administration’s “rebalance to the
Pacific”?
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Second, and equally important, none of these issues exist in a vacuum. They are all inter-
related (e.g., terrorism and narcotics), which further complicates dealing with them.
What has been the dilemma of U.S. national security policy in the aftermath of the Cold
War?
o Search for a direction and especially a “theme”
Cyberspace
o “Order of battle” – i.e., assessing other’s capabilities
o Computer network exploitation vs. Computer network attack
o Use of cyber for covert action (Stuxnet)
Is it a military action or an intelligence action? Implications of either?
o If attacked: determining attribution
Terrorism
o Penetrating terrorist groups
o Determining if and when the next attack
What is “chatter”? Why is it difficult to deal with as intelligence and with
policy makers?
o Capabilities and intentions unknowns are reversed (vis-à-vis the nation state
problem)
o How does one assess relative success against terrorists in general and against a
morphing target like radical Islamic terrorism worldwide?
Proliferation
o Given that most proliferation programs are clandestine, if not covert, how do we
keep track of them?
o What are the intelligence issues in any agreement to curtail weapons programs?
Narcotics
o Why is it difficult to translate good intelligence into successful policy?
Economics
o Component issues
Foreign economic espionage
Major economic shifts
Competition for raw materials
Energy
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Demographics
o What is it? Why does it matter?
Peacekeeping operations
o What is it? Why does it matter?
Secrecy
o Why is intelligence about secrets? What are the risks inherent in secrecy?
o In operations, does secrecy promote license? How do we avoid this?
National Interest
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Specific Issues
HUMINT
o Should individuals be enticed to betray their own states?
o What about the Markus Wolf and Ryszard Kuklinski cases?
Wolf: as an East German intelligence official, operated spies against
West Germany
Kuklinski: Polish staff officer who spied for the U.S. against the Soviet
Union (and Poland). After the Warsaw Pact fell, many in Poland still saw
him as a traitor. Was he?
Other collection
o What level, if any, of intrusion is justified? Is it justified domestically as well as
foreign or are there different limits?
Covert action
o Are these legitimate for one state to conduct against another? Why/why not?
o Again, does the nature of target state matter?
o Is there ever a case to be made in favor of assassination?
o Are coercive interrogation techniques ever justified?
Analysis-related issues
o Is analysis “truth telling”? If so, what are the implications and responsibilities of
such a role?
o What should an analyst do if he or she has very grave differences with policy?
o How much compromise is permissible in the inter-agency process?
Oversight-related issues
o What are the issues involved in the Helms and Clapper cases? What were the
legal requirements and the dilemmas faced?
o Do Members of Congress have responsibilities in these cases?
The Media
o What are their ethical and moral responsibilities when it comes to intelligence?
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Are there any area or issues that appear to be more problematic than others? Are there
suggested reforms that keep appearing? If so, why have they not been enacted?
Specific issues
o Role of the DNI
What are the limits on his authority? Can these be remedied? Why/why
not?
How can you tell if the DNI is working as planned?
o Stovepipes
Are there practicable and politically acceptable alternatives to the
collection stovepipes? What are the impediments?
o Analysis
Is it possible to come up with reliable analytic standards? If you did, how
would you apply them?
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