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DCF NHL

This document summarizes the financial performance of a company over several fiscal years. Total revenue grew from $4.8 billion in FY11 to over $13 billion in FY15, representing a compound annual growth rate of around 20%. Net income ranged from $193.8 million to $539.5 million. Based on a discounted cash flow analysis, the document estimates the company's equity value at $74630.98 per share and the fair share price range from $291 to $365.

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Mittal Kirti Mukesh
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82 views5 pages

DCF NHL

This document summarizes the financial performance of a company over several fiscal years. Total revenue grew from $4.8 billion in FY11 to over $13 billion in FY15, representing a compound annual growth rate of around 20%. Net income ranged from $193.8 million to $539.5 million. Based on a discounted cash flow analysis, the document estimates the company's equity value at $74630.98 per share and the fair share price range from $291 to $365.

Uploaded by

Mittal Kirti Mukesh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Total Revenue 4755.42 6494.34 8273.48 10913.16 13176.1 8722.5 11252.03


Revenue Growth Rate 37% 27% 32% 21% 29% 29%
Expenses 4143.4 5633.54 7393.23 9536.32 11751.6 7691.618 9960.929
Expenditure % of sales 87% 87% 89% 87% 89% 88% 89%
EBITDA 612.02 860.8 880.25 1376.84 1424.5 1030.882 1291.096
Less: Dep & Amortization 313.89 355.68 439.69 546.81 619.56 455.126 562.6013
Depreciation % sales 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
EBIT 298.13 505.12 440.56 830.03 804.94 575.756 728.4951
Taxes 104.35 176.8 154.2 290.51 281.76 201.5167 254.976
Net Income 193.78 328.32 286.36 539.52 523.18 374.232 473.5191

EBIT 298.13 505.12 440.56 830.03 804.94 575.756 728.4951


Add: Dep 313.89 355.68 439.69 546.81 619.56 455.126 562.6013
Less: taxes 104.35 176.8 154.2 290.51 281.76 201.5167 254.976
Operating Cash Flow 507.67 684 726.05 1086.33 1142.74 829.3653 1036.12
Less: Change in working capital 162.25 150.58 258.49 -532.31 595.37 126.876 148.5267
Change in working capital % sales 3% 2% 3% -5% 5% 2% 1%
Less: Capex 983.66 850.75 1071.67 1221.8 803.07 986.19 986.696
Free cash flow -638.24 -317.33 -604.11 396.84 -255.7 -283.7007 -99.10238

FCFF FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Terminal Value


Time period 1 2 3 4 5 6 6
Discount factor 1.111146 1.234644 1.37187 1.524347 1.693771 1.882026 1.882026
Discounted Cash Flow -315.2328 -122.3562 233.9649 861.5569 1367.786 2757.736 71623.82
Enterprise Value 76407.27
Less: Debt 2010
Add:Cash 233.71
Total Equity value 74630.98
Shares Outstanding 204.36
Value per share 365.1937

Beta 0.596
Risk free rate 6.50%
Risk Premium 9.71%

Cost of Equity 0.122872


Cost of Debt 10.00%
WACC 11.11%
Debt/Equity 0.254109
Debt/Capital 20.26%
Equity/Capital 79.74%
Effective Tax Rate 35%

The Share price would be in a range of 291 to 365


FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
14515.11225 18724.49 24154.598 31159.43
29% 29% 29% 29%
12819.300193201 16580.58 21350.395 27559.22
88% 89% 88% 88%
1695.812056799 2143.911 2804.2036 3600.207
725.7556125 936.2247 1207.7299 1557.972
5% 5% 5% 5%
970.056444299 1207.686 1596.4737 2042.235 Terminal Growth Rate= 3.5%
339.52337053202 422.6947 558.77173 714.7899
630.53307376698 784.9916 1037.7019 1327.445

970.056444299 1207.686 1596.4737 2042.235


725.7556125 936.2247 1207.7299 1557.972
339.52337053202 422.6947 558.77173 714.7899
1356.288686267 1721.216 2245.4318 2885.417
171.85892904 153.6907 479.45911 430.6084
1% 1% 2% 1%
1013.8852 1002.328 958.43389 989.5067
170.54455722698 565.1974 807.53884 1465.302

Terminal Value

38056.76123492
Competitors Apollo Fortis
EV 203331 87474.27
Earnings 3466 -339.1
No of shares 139.13 462.81
MPS 1365.45 164.55
Market Cap 189975.1 76155.39
Sales 45927.9 6106.4

EBITDA 6593.8 718.8


EPS 24.91195 -0.732698
BV/share 227.21 79.5

Relative Multiples
P/E 54.81104 -224.5809
P/B 6.009639 2.069811
EV/EBITDA 30.83669 121.6949
EV/Sales 4.427178 14.32501

Average P/E -84.88493 Average P/E -84.88493


Average P/B 4.039725
Average EV/EBITDA' 76.26578
Average EV/Sales 9.376096

EV Calculation for NH AVG P/E * Earnings -24548.72


P/B*Total funds 31966.3
EV/Sales*Sales 122598.6
EV/EBITDA*EBITDA 108646.7
Average Valuation' 59665.71
No of Equity Shares 204.36
Per Share Value 291.9637
NH
Page 3
289.2 For NH from page 12 From P&L
204.36 For NH from page 5 From BS
Page 3
Multiply both
13075.65 For NH from page 12 From P&L

From P&L
Mentioned as
PBDIT
1424.58 For NH from page 12
1.41514973576042 Formula
38.7208357799961 Total shfunds/no of shares Page 8
Total sh funds taken from page 11 7912.99

Formula
Formula
Formula
Formula

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