CHAPTER THREE

ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY THEORY

3.1 Introduction
The term probability can be defined as the chance that a certain event will occur. It ranges
between zero and one. It can be represented as a decimal, percentage or fraction. For
instance, according to Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), the probability that
there will be a rain tomorrow is 0.65.

3.2 Probability models

These are the models which involve chances of certain outcomes to occur or chances of
propagation for series of events. Some modeling required the use of probability concepts
and hence called probabilistic/stochastic models. These involve modeling of
environmental issues, business forecasts, and weather and so on.

3.3 Probability Concepts

The term probability can be determined from two major concepts; empirical and
theoretical concepts.

3.3.1 Empirical Concept

In this we define a probability as a relative frequency; that is the ratio of the total number
of occurrences of a situation to the total number of times an experiment was repeated.
These numbers of repetition however need to be large to justify the concept. That is, if f x
is the number of times a situation x has occurred out of n repeated trials, then we define
the probability of an event x to occur as
f 
P X  x   lim  x 
n
 n
Sometimes it is difficult to obtain probabilities from practical experiment. In which case a
certain expert can assign probabilities to given events by using his/her own long run
experience. This kind of probability is known as subjective probability and it is widely
used for planning activities.

3.3.2 Theoretical Concept

Before giving the theoretical concept to probability let us define some of the important
terms.
A sample space: This is a set consisting of all sample points. It is denoted by S. Consider
a case of tossing a fair coin twice with H being number of heads shown up and T being
number of tails. In this case, S is a set of four points given by S  HH , HT , TH , TT .
An Event: An event is a subset of a sample space. It is denoted by E. From the above
experiment, if E is an event that only one head shown up, then E will be a set of two
points given by E  HT , TH .
A sample Point: It is an individual element of a sample space. It is denoted by e . From
the above experiment, e1  HH .
The theoretical definition of probability is also depending on one of the two cases.

Case1: Sample Points are equally likely

Let E be any events whose members is a subset of S with equally likely points.
In this case, the probability of an event E is given by
n E 
P E  
nS 
where nE  and nS  are number of elements in E and S respectively.
From the above experiment, we can find the probability that only one head shown up as
n E  2 1
P E    
nS  4 2

Case2: Sample Points are NOT Equally Likely

In this particular case the probability of a given event E can be obtained by adding the
probabilities of individual points in E. To illustrate this case consider the following
example

Example 3.1
A football team has to play two matches to qualify for the second round. There is 0.7
chances that it will win the first match and 0.8 chance of winning the second match. By
assuming that winning or losing the first match does not affect the second match, find the
probability that the team will win
(a) Only one match.
(b) At least one matches.
 Solution
First step is to define the outcomes
Let W1 = a team wins the first match
L1 = a team loses the first match
W2 = a team wins the second match
L2 = a team loses the second match
From the given information we find that
PW1   0.7 , PL1   0.3 , PW2   0.8 , PL2   0.2
The sample space can be obtained from the tree diagram as shown below:

The sample space is therefore S  W1W2 ,W1 L2 , L1W2 , L1 L2 

(a) If A is the event that a team wins only one match, then A  W1 L2 , L1W2 
Hence P A  PW1 PL2   PL1 PW2   0.7  0.2  0.3  0.8  0.38

(a) If B is the event that a team wins at least one match, we have
B  W1W2 , W1 L2 , L1W2 
then, PB   PW1 PW2   PW1 PL2   PL1 PW2 
 0.7  0.7  0.38  0.56  0.38  0.94

3.3.3 Axioms of Probabilities

Let E be an event consists of one or more sample points e, then
i  Pei   0 , for each i
ii  0  PE   1
iii   Pei   1
all i
3.4 Rules of Probabilities
There are four basic rules of probabilities namely addition, mutually exclusive,
complement and multiplicative.
(a) Addition Rule
This rule states that if A and B are any two events, then
P A  B  P A  PB  P A  B

(b) Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they can not occur at the same
time. That is P A  B   0 and hence
P A  B   P A  PB 

(c) Complement Rule

Let A denotes that an event A cannot occur. Then,
P A  1  P A

Example 3.2
Given the following information P A  0.6 , PB   0.5 , P A  B   0.4
(a) Find the following i  P A  B ii  P A' iii  PB ' iv  P A  B'
(b) Show that P A  B '  P A 'B '

Solution
a  i  P A  B   P A  PB   P A  B   0.6  0.5  0.4  0.7
ii  P A '  1  P A  1  0.6  0.4
iii  PB '  1  PB   1  0.5  0.5
iv  P A  B '  1  P A  B   1  0.4  0.6

b  P A  B '  1  P A  B   1  0.7  0.3

now, from P A ' B '  P A '  PB '  P A ' B '
 P A ' B '  P A '  PB '  P A ' B '
but P A ' B '  P A  B '  0.6
 P A ' B '  P A '  PB '  P A  B '  0.4  0.5  0.6  0.3  P A  B ' 
Multiplicative rule follows after discussing the concept of conditional probabilities.

3.5 Conditional Probability and Independent Events

3.5.1 Conditional Probability
This is the probability of a certain event to occur provided that other event has already
occurred. Such events have the property of depending one another. Examples of
conditional events include; (1) enrollment of first year students at UDSM and
performance on ACSEE, (2) Sunday open market and rain, (3) Expenditure and
Individual income and so on.

Definition 3.1 The conditional probability of an event A to occur given that event B has
already occurred denoted by P A / B  is given by
P A  B 
P A / B   , PB   0
P B 
P  B  A
Similarly, P  B / A  , p A  0
P  A
Example 3.3
An individual is picked at random from a group of 52 athletes. Suppose that 26 of the
athletes are female of which 6 are swimmers. Also, there are 10 swimmers among male
athletes.
(a) Given that the individual picked is a female, find the probability that she is a
swimmer.
(b) Given that the individual picked is a swimmer, find the probability that he is a male.

Solution
Let M = male, F = female, S = swimmer

PM   , P F   , PF  S   , PM  S  

26 26 6 10
52 52 52 52
(a) Required PS / F 
PS  F  6 / 52
PS / F  
6 3
Now,   
P F  26 / 52 26 13

(b) Required PM / S 

But
 PM  S  PM  S 
PM / S   
PS  PM  S   PF  S 
10 / 52 10 / 52 10 5
   
10 / 52  6 / 52 16 / 52 16 8

The formula for the conditional probability gives that general multiplication rule of
probability.

(d) Multiplication rule of probabilities

If A and B are any two events then, P A  B  PB.P A / B

Example 3.4
The probability that the stock market goes up on Monday is 0.6. Given that it goes up on
Monday, the probability that it goes up on Tuesday is 0.3. Find the probability that the
market will go up on both days.

Solution
Let M = market goes up on Monday, T = market goes up on Tuesday
Given PM   0.6 , PT / M   0.3 . Required to find PM  T 
From the rule, PM  T   PM .PT / M   0.6  0.3  0.18

3.5.2 Independent Events

In some situations, the occurrence of event does not influence the occurrence of another
event. Such kind of events are knows as independent events. In this case,
P A / B  P A and PB / A  PB .

Definition 3.2 If two events A and B are independent then, P A  B   P A.PB 

Example 3.5
A bag contains 2 white and 3 red balls. If two balls are picked one at a time with
replacement, find the probability that,
(a) Both balls are red
(b) Balls are of different colors.
Solution
Let R = red ball, W = white ball
The sample space is S  RR, RW , WR , WW . Given that PR  3 / 5, PW   2 / 5
(a) Required: PRR 

Since the events are independent, then PRR   PR PR    

3 3 9
5 5 25
(b) Required: PRW  or PWR

PRW  or PWR   PR PW   PW PR      

3 2 2 3 12
5 5 5 5 25

Example 3.6
A certain machine is operated using three components C1 , C 2 and C 3 . The probabilities
of these three components to perform well are respectively 0.80, 0.96 and 0.91. Suppose
that these components work independently, find the probability that
(a) All three components work properly.
(b) Only two components work properly.

Solution
(a) PAll three components work   PC1  C 2  C3 
 PC1 PC 2 PC3 
 0.80  0.96  0.91  0.69888

(b) POnly twocomponents work   PC1  C 2  C3   PC1  C 2  C3   PC1  C 2  C3 

 PC1 PC 2 PC3   PC1 PC 2 PC3   PC1 PC 2 PC3 
 0.80  0.96  0.09  0.80  0.04  0.91  0.20  0.96  0.91
 0.27296

3.6 Counting Techniques

3.6.1 The Basic Counting Principle
This principles states that if a certain experiment is performed in r ways, and
corresponding to each of these ways, another experiment is performed in k ways, then the
combined experiment can be performed in r  k ways.
We illustrate this by an experiment of rolling a fair die and tossing a fair coin. A die has
six faces r  6 and a coin has two faces k  6
Then, the combined experiment has a sample space of 6  2  12 points. These sample
points can be shown in the following tree diagram.

H 1H

T 1T
1

H 2H

2 T 2T

H 3H

3 T 3T

H 4H
4
T 4T

5 H 5H

T 5T

6
H 6H

T 6T

3.6.2 Permutation
Permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects (letters or numbers). These n objects
could be distinct or not distinct.
The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time denoted by n Pr is
given by
n!
n Pr 
n  r !
where n! nn  1n  22  1 .Note that 0! 1 and nPn  n!

Example 3.7
How many numbers with three distinct digits are possible using the digits 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8?

Solution
We need to find , where n  6 and r  3
 6! 6!
Then, 6 P3    120 possible numbers.
6  3! 3!
Five of these numbers are 345, 356, 347, 378, 567.

Example 3.8
In how many ways can 5 people be arranged in a line?

Solution:
There are 5! 120 ways of arranging five people in a line.

3.6.3 Permutations when some objects resemble

The arrangement of n objects such that s of them resemble and t of them resemble and
so on is given by
n!
s !t !
Example 3.9
In how many ways can the letters of the word ESSENTIAL be arranged?

Solution:
The word ESSENTIAL consists of nine letters of which S repeats 2 times and E repeats 2
times.
9!
Thus, the possible number of ways =  90720 .
2! 2!

3.6.4 Combination
Unlike permutation, in the case of combination, the order is not important.
We can define a combination as a selection of r objects in a group of n objects. It is
denoted by
n n n!
  or nCr , where   
r   r  r !n  r !

Example 3.10
How many ways are there of choosing a set of three books from a set of eight books?
Solution
 n  8
Since the order is not important, the answer is       56 ways.
 r   3

3.6.5 Applications of Counting in computing probabilities

In some applications, probabilities are computed from counting. This involves both
permutations and combinations problems. The following examples illustrate.

Example 3.11
The letters of the word VOLUME are arranged in all possible ways. Find the probability
that
(a) The word ends with a vowel.
(b) The word starts with a consonant and ends with a vowel.

Solution
The word volume has six distinct letters and hence there are 6! ways of arranging these
letters, where 6! = 720.
(a) There are three choices of the last letter so that the word ends with a vowel. The first
through the fifth letters are arranged in 5! ways. Thus the number of ways that a word
ends with a vowel is given by 3  5  4  3  2 1  360
360
The required probability =  0.5
720
(b) For a word to start with a consonant and end with a vowel, there are three choices for
the first letter and also three choices for the last letter. The middle four letters can be
arranged in 4! ways. The required number of ways in this case is 3  3  4  3  2 1  216
216
The required probability =  0.3
720

Example 3.12
An Engineering consultant is faced with a problem of surveying five sites at Kinondoni,
seven sites at Ilala and eight sites at Temeke. Due to time constraint he/she decided to
choose only six sites to survey. Of these six sites, find the probability that
(a) 2 sites are from Kinondoni, One site from Ilala and three sites from Temeke.
(b) 2 sites are from Kinondoni.
Solution
(a) We first need to find the total number of ways of selecting six sites out of twenty.
 20 
This selection can be done in    38,760 ways.
6 
5
There are   ways of selecting two sites out of five from Kinondoni.
 2
7 8
Similarly, there are   ways for one site at Ilala, and 
 3
 ways of three sites from
1   
Temeke.
 5  7  8 
Combined number of ways is given by 
 2 1  3   3920
   
3920
The required probability =  0.101
38,760

(b) Since the only restriction is that two sites are from Kinondoni, the rest four sites can
be chosen from either Ilala or Temeke.
5 15 
Hence there are 
 2
 ways for two sites from Kinondoni and   ways of selecting the
  4 
rest four sites.
 5 15 
The combined number of ways is therefore     13,650.
 2  4 
13,650
The required probability =  0.352
38,760