Tesla

Company analysis
Drivers

Selected case 2
Company Tesla
Currency USD
Domestic country United States
10-year treasury yield (Sep 27 2018) 3.07%
Market risk premium US 5%
Company beta (Sep 27 2018) 0.78
Tesla share price (Sep 27 2018) 307.8
Bond Yield (Sep 19 2018) 7.50%
Corporate tax rate 30%
Expected inflation 2%
Input -->
P&L Input

2014 2015 2016 2017

(in thousands) Act Act Act Act
Automotive revenues 3,007,012 3,740,973 6,350,766 9,641,300
Energy generation and storage 4,208 14,477 181,394 1,116,266
Services and other 187,136 290,575 467,972 1,001,185
Total revenues 3,198,356 4,046,025 7,000,132 11,758,751
Automotive cost of revenues (2,145,749) (2,823,302) (4,750,081) (7,432,704)
Energy generation and storage cost of revenues (4,005) (12,287) (178,332) (874,538)
Services and other cost of revenues (166,931) (286,933) (472,462) (1,229,022)
Gross profit 881,671 923,503 1,599,257 2,222,487
Research and development (464,700) (717,900) (834,408) (1,378,073)
Selling, general and administrative (603,660) (922,232) (1,432,189) (2,476,500)
Restructuring and other
EBIT (186,689) (716,629) (667,340) (1,632,086)
Interest income 1,126 1,508 8,530 19,686
Interest expense (100,886) (118,851) (198,810) (471,259)
Other income (expense), net 1,813 (41,652) 111,272 (125,373)
EBT (284,636) (875,624) (746,348) (2,209,032)
Provision for income taxes (9,404) (13,039) (26,698) (31,546)
Net loss incl. minority interests (294,040) (888,663) (773,046) (2,240,578)
Minority interests - - 98,132 279,178
Net loss (294,040) (888,663) (674,914) (1,961,400)

KPIs
Revenue % automotive y-o-y 24% 70% 52%
Revenue % generation y-o-y 244% 1153% 515%
Revenue % services y-o-y 55% 61% 114%
GP% automotive 29% 25% 25% 23%
GP% energy generation and automotive 5% 15% 2% 22%
GP% services and other 11% 1% -1% -23%
Overall GP% 28% 23% 23% 19%
EBIT % -6% -18% -10% -14%
Net loss % -9% -22% -10% -17%
ROA -5% -11% -3% -7%
ROE -32% -82% -14% -46%
 2018 H1
Act
6,092,998
784,430
533,554
7,410,982
(4,862,547)
(705,636)
(767,343)
1,075,456
(753,225)
(1,437,163)
(103,434)
(1,218,366)
10,278
(313,128)
13,195
(1,508,021)
(19,312)
(1,527,333)
100,243
(1,427,090)

20%
10%
-44%
15%
-16%
-19%
-5%
-32%
Balance Sheet Input

31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec

(in thousands) 2014 2015 2016
Cash and cash equivalents 1,905,713 1,196,908 3,393,216
Restricted cash and marketable securities 17,947 22,628 105,519
Accounts receivable, net 226,604 168,965 499,142
Inventory 953,675 1,277,838 2,067,454
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 76,134 115,667 194,465
Total current assets 3,180,073 2,782,006 6,259,796
Operating lease vehicles, net 766,744 1,791,403 3,134,080
Solar energy systems, leased and to be leased, net - - 5,919,880
Property, plant and equipment, net 1,829,267 3,403,334 5,982,957
Intangible assets, net - 12,816 376,145
portion - - 506,302
Restricted cash, net of current portion 11,374 31,522 268,165
Other assets 43,209 46,858 216,751
Total assets 5,830,667 8,067,939 22,664,076
Accounts payable 777,946 916,148 1,860,341
Accrued liabilities 268,883 422,798 1,210,028
Deferred revenue 191,651 423,961 763,126
Resale value guarantees - 136,831 179,504
Customer deposits 257,587 283,370 663,859
Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases 611,099 627,927 984,211
Current portion of solar bonds issued to related -
parties - - 165,936
Total current liabilities 2,107,166 2,811,035 5,827,005
Long-term debt and capital leases, net of current
portion 1,818,785 2,021,093 5,860,049
Other liabilities 993,006 2,152,107 5,438,936
Total liabilities 4,918,957 6,984,235 17,125,990
Total stockholders' equity 911,710 1,083,704 4,752,911
Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries - - 785,175
Total liabilities and equity 5,830,667 8,067,939 22,664,076

KPIs
Liquidity ratios
Quick ratio 0.91 0.43 0.60
Current ratio 1.51 0.99 1.07
DSO 25.51 15.03 25.67
DIO 148.20 147.32 137.81
DPO 120.89 105.62 124.00
Net Trading Cycle 52.81 56.73 39.47
Solvency ratios
Debt ratio 1.19 1.16 1.32
Interest coverage <0 <0 <0
 31 Dec 30 Jun
2017 2018
3,367,914 2,236,424
155,323 146,822
515,381 569,874
2,263,537 3,324,643
268,365 422,034
6,570,520 6,699,797
4,116,604 2,282,047
6,347,490 6,340,031
10,027,522 10,969,348
361,502 364,690
516,889 434,841
441,722 399,992
273,123 419,254
28,655,372 27,910,000
2,390,250 3,030,493
1,731,366 1,814,979
1,015,253 576,321
787,333 674,255
853,919 942,129
796,549 2,103,185

100,000 -
7,674,670 9,141,362

9,415,700 9,513,390
6,330,414 3,988,135
23,420,784 22,642,887
4,237,242 4,445,957
997,346 821,156
28,655,372 27,910,000

0.46 0.26
0.86 0.73
15.78 13.84
85.45 94.46
90.23 86.10
11.00 22.20

1.22 1.23
<0 <0
Workings -->
Income Statement items
ms
Automotive
Deliveries

Tesla
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2 2018
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 - - - 1,764 26,620 104,000 130,620
Tesla Model S and X 33,600 50,580 76,230 101,312 44,100 55,900 100,000
Tesla Model Y - - - - - - -
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - -
Tesla Pickup - - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - - -
Total 33,600 50,580 76,230 103,076 70,720 159,900 230,620
y-o-y growth %
Tesla Model 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7305%
Tesla Model S and X n.a. 51% 51% 33% -1%
Tesla Model Y n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Roadster 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Pickup n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Semi n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Assumed growth after introduction:

2 years 10%
2 years 5%
onwards 2%
 Tesla Deliveries
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
260,000 416,000 457,600 503,360 528,528 554,954 566,053 577,375 588,922
102,000 104,040 106,121 108,243 110,408 112,616 114,869 117,166 119,509
1,764 130,620 260,000 416,000 457,600 503,360 528,528 554,954 566,053
- 500 1,000 1,500 1,650 1,815 1,906 2,001 2,041
250 18,512 36,848 58,957 64,853 71,338 74,905 78,650 80,223
250 18,512 36,848 58,957 64,853 71,338 74,905 78,650 80,223
364,264 688,184 898,417 1,147,017 1,227,891 1,315,421 1,361,165 1,408,796 1,436,972

99% 60% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
n.a. 7305% 99% 60% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2%
n.a. n.a. 100% 50% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2%
n.a. 7305% 99% 60% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2%
n.a. 7305% 99% 60% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2%
 2028
Fcst
600,700
121,899
577,375
2,082
81,827
81,827
1,465,711

2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
 Tesla vehicle deliveries 2014-2027 (actuals and forecasts)
2000 000

1800 000

1600 000

1400 000

1200 000
Production

1000 000

800 000

600 000

400 000
1 764
102 000
-
200 000 100 000
- 55 -900 260 000
- 101 312 44 -100 104 000 130 620
-
-
33 -600 50 -580 76 -230 26 620
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2 2018 2019
Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst Fcst

Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model S and X Tesla Model Y

 80 223 8
78 650 8
74 905 80 223
71 338 78 650
74 905
64 853 71 338
58 957 64 853
58 957
566 053 57
528 528 554 954
503 360
36 848 457 600
36 848 416 000

18 260 000
18 512
512 117 166 119 509 12
112 616 114 869
130 620 108 243 110 408
106 121
104 040
1 764
102 000 566 053 577 375 588 922 60
503 360 528 528 554 954
- 416 000 457 600
100 000
260 000
130 620
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst F

la Model S and X Tesla Model Y Tesla Roadster 2 Tesla Pickup Tesla Semi
 80 223 81 827
8 650 81 827
8 650 80 223

566 053 577 375

4 954

7 166 119 509 121 899

7 375 588 922 600 700

2026 2027 2028

Fcst Fcst Fcst
Deliveries comparables

Comparables

Vehicle Average Adj. Average

GM 9,600,340 9,600,340
Ford 6,607,000 6,607,000
Fiat Chrysler 4,740,000 4,740,000
BMW 2,460,000 2,460,000
Volkswagen 10,700,000 10,700,000
Jaguar n.a. n.a.
Porsche n.a. n.a.
Ferrari n.a. n.a.
Scania n.a. n.a.
MAN n.a. n.a.
Paccar n.a. n.a.
Average n.a. 6,821,468
Revenue Automotive

Tesla Revenue Auto

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2 2018
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 n.a. n.a. 4,368 5,486
Tesla Model S and X 3,007 3,741 6,351 n.a. n.a. 4,891 8,750
Tesla Model Y - - - - - - -
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - -
Tesla Pickup - - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - - -
Total 3,007 3,741 6,351 9,641 6,093 9,259 14,236
Selected case
Tesla Model 3 100%
Tesla Model S and X 100%
Tesla Model Y 100%
Tesla Roadster 2 100%
Tesla Pickup 100%
Tesla Semi 100%

Best case
Tesla Model 3 102%
Tesla Model S and X 102%
Tesla Model Y 102%
Tesla Roadster 2 102%
Tesla Pickup 102%
Tesla Semi 102%

Base case
Tesla Model 3 100%
Tesla Model S and X 100%
Tesla Model Y 100%
Tesla Roadster 2 100%
Tesla Pickup 100%
Tesla Semi 100%

Worst case
Tesla Model 3 98%
Tesla Model S and X 98%
Tesla Model Y 98%
Tesla Roadster 2 98%
Tesla Pickup 98%
Tesla Semi 98%
Tesla Revenue Automotive (in mln $)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
10,920 17,472 19,219 21,141 22,198 23,308 23,774 24,250 24,735
8,925 9,104 9,286 9,471 9,661 9,854 10,051 10,252 10,457
88 6,531 13,000 20,800 22,880 25,168 26,426 27,748 28,303
- 115 230 345 380 417 438 460 469
16 1,166 2,321 3,714 4,086 4,494 4,719 4,955 5,054
50 3,702 7,370 11,791 12,971 14,268 14,981 15,730 16,045
19,999 38,090 51,426 67,263 72,175 77,509 80,390 83,395 85,063

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102%

102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%

98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%
 2028
Fcst Average Price ($)
25,229 42,000
10,666 87,500
28,869 50,000
479 230,000
5,155 63,000
16,365 200,000
86,764

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

102%
102%
102%
102%
102%
102%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

98%
98%
98%
98%
98%
98%
GP %

Comparables

GP % GP % GP %
Vehicle Comparable companies Comp. 1 Comp. 2 Comp. 3 Average
Tesla Model 3 GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler 13.9% 7.9% 15.3% 12.4%
Tesla Model S and X BMW, Mercedes Cars, Volkswagen 18.4% 20.8% 18.4% 19.2%
Tesla Model Y BMW, Mercedes Cars, Volkswagen 18.4% 20.8% 18.4% 19.2%
Tesla Roadster 2 Jaguar, Porsche, Ferrari 38.1% 28.2% 51.7% 39.3%
Tesla Pickup GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler 13.9% 7.9% 15.3% 12.4%
Tesla Semi Scania, MAN, Paccar 24.6% 18.6% 14.3% 19.2%

Historical

Vehicle Average
Tesla Model 3 n.a.
Tesla Model S and X 25%
Tesla Model Y n.a.
Tesla Roadster 2 n.a.
Tesla Pickup n.a.
Tesla Semi n.a.
Gross Profit

Tesla Gross
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2 2018
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 541 n.a.
Tesla Model S and X n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 940 n.a.
Tesla Model Y - - - - - - -
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - -
Tesla Pickup - - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - - -
Total 861 918 1,601 2,209 1,230 1,481 2,711
Selected case
Tesla Model 3 12% 12% 12%
Tesla Model S and X 19% 19% 19%
Tesla Model Y 19% 19% 19%
Tesla Roadster 2 39% 39% 39%
Tesla Pickup 12% 12% 12%
Tesla Semi 19% 19% 19%

Best case
Tesla Model 3 14% 14% 14%
Tesla Model S and X 21% 21% 21%
Tesla Model Y 21% 21% 21%
Tesla Roadster 2 41% 41% 41%
Tesla Pickup 14% 14% 14%
Tesla Semi 21% 21% 21%

Base case
Tesla Model 3 12% 12% 12%
Tesla Model S and X 19% 19% 19%
Tesla Model Y 19% 19% 19%
Tesla Roadster 2 39% 39% 39%
Tesla Pickup 12% 12% 12%
Tesla Semi 19% 19% 19%

Worst case
Tesla Model 3 11% 11% 11%
Tesla Model S and X 18% 18% 18%
Tesla Model Y 18% 18% 18%
Tesla Roadster 2 38% 38% 38%
Tesla Pickup 11% 11% 11%
Tesla Semi 18% 18% 18%
Tesla Gross Profit (in mln $)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
1,352 2,163 2,379 2,617 2,748 2,885 2,943 3,002 3,062
1,715 1,749 1,784 1,820 1,856 1,894 1,931 1,970 2,009
17 1,255 2,498 3,997 4,397 4,836 5,078 5,332 5,439
- 45 90 136 149 164 172 181 185
2 144 287 460 506 556 584 613 626
10 710 1,413 2,260 2,486 2,735 2,872 3,015 3,076
3,095 6,066 8,452 11,289 12,142 13,070 13,580 14,113 14,395

12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39%
12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%

14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%

21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41%
14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%

12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39%
12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%

11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%

18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
 2028
Fcst
3,123
2,050
5,548
188
638
3,137
14,683

12%
19%
19%
39%
12%
19%

14%
21%
21%
41%
14%
21%

12%
19%
19%
39%
12%
19%

11%
18%
18%
38%
11%
18%
Cost of sales automotive

Tesla Cost o
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2 2018
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (3,827) n.a.
Tesla Model S and X n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (3,951) n.a.
Tesla Model Y - - - - - - -
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - -
Tesla Pickup - - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - - -
Total (2,146) (2,823) (4,750) (7,433) (4,863) (7,779) (11,525)
Tesla Cost of sales (in mln $)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
(9,568) (15,309) (16,840) (18,524) (19,451) (20,423) (20,832) (21,248) (21,673)
(7,210) (7,354) (7,501) (7,651) (7,804) (7,960) (8,120) (8,282) (8,448)
(71) (5,276) (10,502) (16,803) (18,483) (20,332) (21,348) (22,416) (22,864)
- (70) (140) (209) (230) (253) (266) (279) (285)
(14) (1,022) (2,034) (3,255) (3,580) (3,938) (4,135) (4,342) (4,428)
(40) (2,993) (5,957) (9,531) (10,484) (11,533) (12,109) (12,715) (12,969)
(16,904) (32,024) (42,974) (55,974) (60,033) (64,439) (66,810) (69,281) (70,667)
 2028
Fcst
(22,107)
(8,617)
(23,321)
(291)
(4,517)
(13,228)
(72,080)
 Revenue and Gross Profit automotive

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Vehicle Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst Fcst
Revenue automotive 3,007 3,741 6,351 9,641 14,236 19,999 38,090
Gross Profit automoti 861 918 1,601 2,209 2,711 3,095 6,066
GP% 29% 25% 25% 23% 19% 15% 16%

Revenue and Gross Profit automotive

100 000
90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
$ in million

50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

Gross Profit automotive Revenue automotive

 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
51,426 67,263 72,175 77,509 80,390 83,395 85,063 86,764
8,452 11,289 12,142 13,070 13,580 14,113 14,395 14,683
16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

Revenue automotive GP%

Energy & Other
Revenue Energy & Other

Tesla R
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Energy generation and storage 4 14 181 1,116 784 784
Services and other 187 291 468 1,001 534 534
Total Energy and Other 191 305 649 2,117 1,318 1,318
SolarCity 255 400 730 - - -
Total Energy and Other + SolarCity 446 705 1,380 2,117 1,318 1,318
Selected case
Total Energy and Other

Y-o-Y %
Best case
Total Energy and Other

Base case
Total Energy and Other 58% 96% 53%

Worst case
Total Energy and Other
 Tesla Revenue Energy & Other (in mln $)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
1,569 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
1,067 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2,636 3,058 3,425 3,699 3,921 4,156 4,405 4,669 4,950
- n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2,636 3,058 3,425 3,699 3,921 4,156 4,405 4,669 4,950

16% 12% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

18% 14% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

16% 12% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

14% 10% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
5,247 5,561
n.a. n.a.
5,247 5,561

6% 6%

8% 8%

6% 6%

4% 4%
Gross Profit Energy & Other

Tesla
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Energy generation and storage 0 2 3 242 79 n.a.
Services and other 20 4 (4) (228) (234) n.a.
Total Energy and Other 20 6 (1) 14 (155) n.a.
SolarCity 79 119 251 - - n.a.
Total Energy and Other + SolarCity 99 125 250 14 (155) n.a.
Selected case
Total Energy and Other 22% 18% 18% 1% -12%

GP%
Best case
Total Energy and Other

Base case
Total Energy and Other

Worst case
Total Energy and Other
 2025
Fcst

Tesla GP% Energy and Other (in mln $)

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
386 448 502 542 575 609 646 685 726

15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%

2027 2028
Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
769 815

15% 15%

17% 17%

15% 15%

13% 13%
Cost of sales Energy & Other

Tesla C
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Energy generation and storage (4) (12) (178) (875) (706) n.a.
Services and other (167) (287) (472) (1,229) (767) n.a.
Total Energy and Other (171) (299) (651) (2,104) (1,473) n.a.
SolarCity -176 (281) (479) - - n.a.
Total Energy and Other + SolarCity (347) (580) (1,130) (2,104) (1,473) (777)
 Tesla Cost of sales Energy & Other (in mln $)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
(2,249) (2,609) (2,923) (3,156) (3,346) (3,546) (3,759) (3,985) (4,224)
 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
(4,477) (4,746)
Operating expenses
Opex comparables

Comparables - 2017

Company Average Adj. Average

GM 14% 14%
Ford 13% 13%
Fiat Chrysler 10% 10%
BMW 10% 10%
Volkswagen 12% 12%
Jaguar 31%
Porsche 11% 11%
Ferrari 29%
Scania 15% 15%
MAN 15% 15%
Paccar 4%
Average 15% 12%
Opex

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2

($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Revenues 3,453 4,446 7,730 11,759 7,411 10,577
Opex as a % of revenues -30.9% -36.9% -29.3% -32.8% -31.0% -26.5%
Opex (1,068) (1,640) (2,267) (3,855) (2,294) (2,801)

Selected case
Opex as a % of revenue -26%

Opex %
Best case
Opex as a % of revenue -23%

Base case
Opex as a % of revenue -26%

Worst case
Opex as a % of revenue -29%
 Tesla Opex (in mln $)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
17,988 23,057 41,515 55,124 71,184 76,330 81,914 85,059 88,344
-12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5%
(5,095) (2,880) (5,186) (6,886) (8,892) (9,535) (10,233) (10,625) (11,036)

-12% -12% -12% -12% -12% -12% -12% -12%

-10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10%

-12% -12% -12% -12% -12% -12% -12% -12%

-14% -14% -14% -14% -14% -14% -14% -14%

 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst
90,309 92,325
-12.5% -12.5%
(11,281) (11,533)

-12% -12%

-10% -10%

-12% -12%

-14% -14%
Balance Sheet -->
Property, Plant & Equipment
uipment
Fixed asset roll forward

Selected case: as a % of PPE 1

31Dec2014 31Dec2015 31Dec2016 31Dec2017 30Jun2018

($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
Beginning PP&E 738 1,829 3,403 5,983 10,028
Capex 1,323 1,997 3,527 5,211 1,843
D&A (232) (423) (947) (1,166) (901)
Ending PP&E 1,829 3,403 5,983 10,028 10,969

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1

($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
2018 H2
Fcst
2018
Fcst
2019
Fcst
2020
Fcst
2021
Fcst
2022
Fcst
2023
Fcst
2024Fcst
2025Fcst
2026Fcst
2027Fcst
2028Fcst
Total D&A (232) (423) (947) (1,166) (901)

D&A as a % of PP&E -31.4% -23.1% -27.8% -19.5% -9.0%

D&A as a % of revenues -7.3% -10.4% -13.5% -9.9% -12.2%
Capex as a % of PP&E 179.1% 109.2% 103.6% 87.1% 18.4%
Capex as a % of revenues 41.4% 49.3% 50.4% 44.3% 24.9%

Useful life Capex 15

Useful life historical assets 15
 Tesla PP&E (in mln $)
2018 H2 31Dec2018 31Dec2019 31Dec2020 31Dec2021 31Dec2022 31Dec2023 31Dec2024
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
10,969 10,028 14,638 19,127 23,116 25,682 28,419 31,325
4,173 6,017 5,855 5,738 4,623 5,136 5,684 6,265
(505) (1,406) (1,366) (1,749) (2,057) (2,399) (2,778) (3,196)
14,638 14,638 19,127 23,116 25,682 28,419 31,325 34,394
Tesla D&A (in mln $)
2018 H2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
(505)
(1,406)
(1,366) (1,366) (1,366) (1,366) (1,366) (1,366)
(383) (383) (383) (383) (383)
(308) (308) (308) (308)
(342) (342) (342)
(379) (379)
(418)

(505) (1,406) (1,366) (1,749) (2,057) (2,399) (2,778) (3,196)

-25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5%

-4.8% -7.8% -5.9% -4.2% -3.7% -3.4% -3.6% -3.9%
99.5% 60.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
42.1% 42.1% 42.1% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
31Dec2025 31Dec2026 31Dec2027 31Dec2028
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
34,394 37,618 40,986 44,480
6,879 7,524 8,197 8,896
(3,655) (4,156) (4,703) (5,296)
37,618 40,986 44,480 48,081

2025 2026 2027 2028

Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

(1,366) (1,366) (1,366) (1,366)

(383) (383) (383) (383)
(308) (308) (308) (308)
(342) (342) (342) (342)
(379) (379) (379) (379)
(418) (418) (418) (418)
(459) (459) (459) (459)
(502) (502) (502)
(546) (546)
(593)
(3,655) (4,156) (4,703) (5,296)

-25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5%

-4.3% -4.7% -5.2% -5.7%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
PP&E comparables

Comparables - 2017

D&A as a % of PP&E D&A as a % of revenues

Company Average Adj. Average Average Adj. Average
GM -34% -34% -8% -8%
Ford -24% -24% -5% -5%
Fiat Chrysler -20% -20% -5% -5%
BMW -42% -42% -6% -6%
Volkswagen -40% -40% -10% -10%
Jaguar -28% -28% -7% -7%
Porsche -39% -39% -10% -10%
Ferrari -37% -37% -8% -8%
Scania -13% -13% -3% -3%
MAN -37% -37% -7% -7%
Paccar
Average -31% -31% -7% -7%
Working capital
Working Capital comparables

Comparables - 2017

DSO DIO DPO

Vehicle Average Adj. Average Average Adj. Average Average

GM 22.0 22.0 28.8 28.8 75.0
Ford 28.2 28.2 21.2 21.2 60.6
Fiat Chrysler 25.6 25.6 41.9 41.9 84.0
BMW 9.7 9.7 46.4 46.4 44.5
Volkswagen 20.8 20.8 63.1 63.1 44.1
Jaguar 18.8 51.2 155.5
Porsche 9.2 9.2 46.8 46.8 65.0
Ferrari 25.2 25.2 41.5 41.5 132.5
Scania 27.1 27.1 64.9 64.9 55.9
MAN 54.5 85.3 59.4
Paccar 22.3 22.3 18.4 18.4 59.3
Average 24.0 21.1 46.3 41.4 76.0
DPO Net trade cycle
Adj. Adj.
Average Average Average
75.0 (24.20) (24.20)
60.6 (11.17) (11.17)
84.0 (16.52) (16.52)
44.5 11.60 11.60
44.1 39.82 39.82
(85.39)
65.0 (9.11) (9.11)
132.5 (65.77) (65.77)
55.9 36.14 36.14
80.38
59.3 (18.62) (18.62)
69.0 (5.71) (6.43)
Working capital

Tesla Wor
31Dec2014 31Dec2015 31Dec2016 31Dec2017 30Jun2018
Act Act Act Act Act
($ in million)
Trade receivables 227 169 499 515 570
Inventory 954 1,278 2,067 2,264 3,325
Trade payables 778 916 1,860 2,390 3,030
Net trade cycle 402 531 706 389 864

Selected case:
DSO 25.5 15.0 25.7 15.8 13.8
DIO 148.2 147.3 137.8 85.4 94.5
DPO 120.9 105.6 124.0 90.2 86.1
Net trade cycle 52.8 56.7 39.5 11.0 22.2
 Tesla Working capital (in mln $)
31Dec2018 31Dec2019 31Dec2020 31Dec2021 31Dec2022 31Dec2023 31Dec2024 31Dec2025 31Dec2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

958 1,228 2,210 2,935 3,790 4,064 4,361 4,528 4,703

5,073 6,648 11,906 15,716 20,209 21,661 23,234 24,119 25,042
4,358 5,711 10,229 13,502 17,362 18,609 19,961 20,721 21,515
1,672 2,164 3,887 5,149 6,637 7,115 7,634 7,926 8,231

19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2

122.6 122.6 122.6 122.6 122.6 122.6 122.6 122.6 122.6
105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4
36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4
31Dec2027 31Dec2028
Fcst Fcst

4,808 4,915
25,601 26,174
21,994 22,487
8,414 8,602

19.2 19.2
122.6 122.6
105.4 105.4
36.4 36.4
 Working Capital development (2018-2028)

60 000

50 000

40 000
$ in million

30 000

20 000

10 000

0
31Dec2018 31Dec2019 31Dec2020 31Dec2021 31Dec2022 31Dec2023 31Dec2024
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

Trade receivables Inventory Trade payables

31Dec2023 31Dec2024 31Dec2025 31Dec2026 31Dec2027 31Dec2028
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

Inventory Trade payables

Output -->
P&L

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2018 H2

($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Revenues 3,198 4,046 7,000 11,759 7,411 10,577
Cost of sales (2,317) (3,123) (5,401) (9,536) (6,336) (8,555)
Gross profit 882 924 1,599 2,222 1,075 2,022
Operating expenses (1,068) (1,640) (2,267) (3,855) (2,294) (2,801)
EBIT (187) (717) (667) (1,632) (1,218) (779)
Interest expenses/income (98) (159) (79) (577) (290)
EBT (285) (876) (746) (2,209) (1,508)
Taxes (9) (13) (27) (32) (19)
Minority interest - - 98 279 100
Net Income (294) (889) (675) (1,961) (1,427)

Check
Net income -294 -889 -675 -1961 -1427
- - - - -
 Tesla P&L (in mln $)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
17,988 23,057 41,515 55,124 71,184 76,330 81,914 85,059 88,344
(14,891) (19,513) (34,946) (46,130) (59,319) (63,579) (68,198) (70,794) (73,505)
3,097 3,543 6,568 8,994 11,864 12,751 13,716 14,265 14,839
(5,095) (2,880) (5,186) (6,886) (8,892) (9,535) (10,233) (10,625) (11,036)
(1,997) 663 1,382 2,108 2,972 3,216 3,483 3,640 3,803
 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst
90,309 92,325
(75,144) (76,826)
15,165 15,499
(11,281) (11,533)
3,883 3,966
Balance Sheet

T
31Dec2014 31Dec2015 31Dec2016 31Dec2017 30Jun2018 31Dec2018
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Cash 1,906 1,197 3,393 3,368 2,236
Restricted cash and securities 18 23 106 155 147
Trade receivables 227 169 499 515 570 958
Inventory 954 1,278 2,067 2,264 3,325 5,073
Prepaid expenses 76 116 194 268 422
as a % of revenues 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 5.7%
Operating lease vehicles 767 1,791 3,134 4,117 2,282
Solar energy systems leased - - 5,920 6,347 6,340
PP&E 1,829 3,403 5,983 10,028 10,969 14,638
Intangible assets - 13 376 362 365
Other assets 55 78 991 1,232 1,254
as a % of revenues 1.7% 1.9% 14.2% 10.5% 16.9%
Total assets 5,831 8,068 22,664 28,655 27,910

Accounts payable 778 916 1,860 2,390 3,030 4,358

Accrued liabilities 269 423 1,210 1,731 1,815
as a % of revenues 8.4% 10.4% 17.3% 14.7% 24.5%
Deferred revenue 192 424 763 1,015 576
as a % of revenues 6.0% 10.5% 10.9% 8.6% 7.8%
Resale value guarantees - 137 180 787 674
as a % of revenues 0.0% 3.4% 2.6% 6.7% 9.1%
Customer deposits 258 283 664 854 942
as a % of revenues 8.1% 7.0% 9.5% 7.3% 12.7%
Long-term debt 2,430 2,649 6,844 10,212 11,617
Other liabilities 993 2,152 5,605 6,430 3,988
as a % of revenues 31.0% 53.2% 80.1% 54.7% 53.8%
Total liabilities 4,919 6,984 17,126 23,421 22,643
Equity 912 1,084 5,538 5,235 5,267

Total liabilities & equity 5,831 8,068 22,664 28,655 27,910

Check - - - - - -
 Tesla BS (in mln $)
31Dec2019 31Dec2020 31Dec2021 31Dec2022 31Dec2023 31Dec2024 31Dec2025 31Dec2026 31Dec2027
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

1,228 2,210 2,935 3,790 4,064 4,361 4,528 4,703 4,808

6,648 11,906 15,716 20,209 21,661 23,234 24,119 25,042 25,601

19,127 23,116 25,682 28,419 31,325 34,394 37,618 40,986 44,480

5,711 10,229 13,502 17,362 18,609 19,961 20,721 21,515 21,994

- - - - - - - - -
31Dec2028
Fcst Assumption

4,915 Working capital sheet

26,174 Working capital sheet

48,081 PP&E sheet

22,487 Working capital sheet

Grows as a % of revenues

Grows as a % of revenues

Grows as a % of revenues

Grows as a % of revenues

Financing sheet
Grows as a % of revenues

-
Cash Flow

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1

($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
EBIT (717) (667) (1,632) (1,218)
Operating taxes (30%) (13) (27) (32) (19)
NOPAT (730) (694) (1,664) (1,238)
Add-back D&A 423 947 1,166 901
Gross Cash Flow (307) 253 (497) (336)
Trade receivables 58 (330) (16) (54)
Inventory (324) (790) (196) (1,061)
Accounts payable 138 944 530 640
Investments in Working Capital (128) (176) 318 (475)
Capex (1,997) (3,527) (5,211) (1,843)
Other assets (1,105) (8,700) (1,760) 1,671
Other liabilties 1,708 5,002 2,397 (2,822)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (1,830) (7,147) (4,753) (3,806)
Interest expenses (159) (79) (577) (290)
Delta Financial liabilities 219 4,195 3,368 1,404
Delta equity/Other equity movements 1,061 5,129 1,658 1,460
Tax adjustment - - - -
Minority interest - 98 279 100
Net Cash Flow (709) 2,196 (25) (1,131)

Opening cash 1,905.7 1,196.9 3,393.2 3,367.9

Net Cash Flow - (708.8) 2,196.3 (25.3) (1,131.5)
Closing cash 1,905.7 1,196.9 3,393.2 3,367.9 2,236.4

Check - - - - -
 Tesla Cash Flow (in mln $)
2018 H2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
(779)
-
(779) - - - - - - - -
505
(274) - - - - - - - -
(388)
(1,748)
1,328
(808) - - - - - - - -
(4,173)

(5,256) - - - - - - - -

(5,256) - - - - - - - -

2,236.4 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9

(5,255.8) - - - - - - - -
(3,019.4) 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9

3,019.4 (3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9)

 2026 2027 2028
Fcst Fcst Fcst

- - -

- - -

- - -

- - -

- - -

3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9

- - -
3,367.9 3,367.9 3,367.9

(3,367.9) (3,367.9) (3,367.9)