SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999363
R Square 0.998727
Adjusted R 0.9986
Standard E 11.50017
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1037525 1037525 7844.945 8.234E-16
Residual 10 1322.54 132.254
Total 11 1038848

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 28391.53 12.47114 2276.578 6.581E-30 28363.75 28419.32 28363.75 28419.32
X Variable 85.17876 0.961693 88.5717 8.234E-16 83.03597 87.32154 83.03597 87.32154
Upper 95.0%
Month/ Year January February March April May June
2013
Starting 120,816.00 125,871 120,415 132,696 125,386 124,197
Shipped 26,203 33,738 18,977 40,057 33,429 18,070
Production 31,258 28,281 31,258 32,747 32,240 29,770
Ending 125,871 120,415 132,696 125,386 124,197 135,897

2014
Starting 125,767 131,395 126,075 139,201 132,010 130,192
Shipped 27,135 34,962 19,637 41,514 34,581 18,685
Production 32,763 29,642 32,763 34,323 32,763 32,763
Ending 131,395 126,075 139,201 132,010 130,192 144,269
Seasonal factor => T=12 (each cycle lasts for 12 periods)
L 28,392 Ft = (L+(t+1)*T)*S(t+1)
T 85
Period Demand Moving Avg Dt=L+T*t St (seasonal) St (avg) Ft
1 26,203 28,477 0.92 0.92
2 33,738 28,562 1.18 1.18
3 18,977 28,647 0.66 0.66
4 40,057 28,732 1.39 1.39
5 33,429 28,817 1.16 1.16
6 18,070 28,903 0.63 0.62
7 47,283 28,982 28,988 1.63 1.63
8 1,852 29,072 29,073 0.06 0.06
9 42,170 29,150 29,158 1.45 1.45
10 30,419 29,238 29,243 1.04 1.04
11 32,223 29,347 29,328 1.10 1.10
12 22,894 29,421 29,414 0.78 0.78
13 27,135 29,516 29,499 0.92
14 34,962 29,585 29,584 1.18
15 19,637 29,647 29,669 0.66
16 41,514 29,753 29,754 1.40
17 34,581 29,843 29,840 1.16
18 18,685 29,922 29,925 0.62
19 48,953 30,010 1.63
20 1,838 30,095 0.06
21 43,675 30,180 1.45
22 31,457 30,265 1.04
23 33,346 30,351 1.10
24 23,677 30,436 0.78
25 30,521 28,080
26 30,606 36,161
27 30,691 20,322
28 30,777 42,924
29 30,862 35,783
 30 30,947 19,336
31 31,032 50,619
32 31,117 1,941
33 31,202 45,140
34 31,288 32,532
35 31,373 34,469
36 31,458 24,479

Chart review
Shipped 2013 26,203 33,738 18,977 40,057 33,429 18,070
Shipped 2014 27,135 34,962 19,637 41,514 34,581 18,685
Forecast 2015 28,080 36,161 20,322 42,924 35,783 19,336
 July August September October November December

135,897 121,361 141,836 129,436 131,764 127,822 50,000

47,283 1,852 42,170 30,419 32,223 22,894 45,000
32,747 22,327 29,770 32,747 28,281 20,839
40,000
121,361 141,836 129,436 131,764 127,822 125,767
35,000
30,000
144,269 129,639 149,643 138,731 141,597 136,333 25,000
48,953 1,838 43,675 31,457 33,346 23,677 20,000
34,323 21,842 32,763 34,323 28,082 23,402
15,000
129,639 149,643 138,731 141,597 136,333 136,058
10,000

= (L+(t+1)*T)*S(t+1) 5,000
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Ch
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Chart Ti
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Shipped 2013 Shipped

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Shipped 2013 Shipped

47,283 1,852 42,170 30,419 32,223 22,894

48,953 1,838 43,675 31,457 33,346 23,677
50,619 1,941 45,140 32,532 34,469 24,479
 2013 2014
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Chart Title

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Chart Title

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Shipped 2013 Shipped 2014 Forecast 2015

 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Shipped 2013 Shipped 2014 Forecast 2015

 2014

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 F(t+1) = [L+(t+1)*T]*S(t+1)
L: deseasonalized demand estimate during Period t=0
T: estimate of trend (increase or decrease in demand per period)
St: estimate of seasonal factor for Period t
Dt: actual demand observed in Period t
Ft: forecast of demand for Period t

Use linear regression

L = intercept coefficient
T = variable coefficient

Dt = L+T*t