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    Wijayati Forecasting

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    freteer
    The document compares three forecasting methods - simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing - to forecast bicycle demand over a year. The simple moving average method resulted in an overstock of 369 bicycles for the year and an average overstock of 41 bicycles per month. The weighted moving average reduced the overstock to 70 bicycles per month on average. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.1 produced a stockout of 79 bicycles for the year and an average error of 7 bicycles per month.

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    Wijayati Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    freteer
    26 views8 pages
    The document compares three forecasting methods - simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing - to forecast bicycle demand over a year. The simple moving average method resulted in an overstock of 369 bicycles for the year and an average overstock of 41 bicycles per month. The weighted moving average reduced the overstock to 70 bicycles per month on average. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.1 produced a stockout of 79 bicycles for the year and an average error of 7 bicycles per month.

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    Wijayati_Forecasting

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    The document compares three forecasting methods - simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing - to forecast bicycle demand over a year. The simple moving average method resulted in an overstock of 369 bicycles for the year and an average overstock of 41 bicycles per month. The weighted moving average reduced the overstock to 70 bicycles per month on average. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.1 produced a stockout of 79 bicycles for the year and an average error of 7 bicycles per month.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    26 views8 pages

    Wijayati Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    freteer
    The document compares three forecasting methods - simple moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing - to forecast bicycle demand over a year. The simple moving average method resulted in an overstock of 369 bicycles for the year and an average overstock of 41 bicycles per month. The weighted moving average reduced the overstock to 70 bicycles per month on average. Exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.1 produced a stockout of 79 bicycles for the year and an average error of 7 bicycles per month.

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    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE

    Dt At Ft Et
    3-period Moving 3-period
    Demand Avg Forecast Dt - Ft Error
    Jan 550
    Feb 375
    March 1,500 809
    April 2,000 1292 809 1,191
    May 1,300 1600 1292 8
    June 875 1392 1600 -725
    July 850 1009 1392 -542
    Aug 600 775 1009 -409
    Sept 2,300 1250 775 1,525
    Oct 1,500 1467 1250 250
    Nov 700 1500 1467 -767
    Dec 600 934 1500 -900
    -369
    Sum Demand 10,725 bicycles tires
    Avg Demand 1192.0 bycicles/month
    Bias -369 overstocked 369 in a year
    Bias Avg -41 overstocked 41 bikes/month
    Absolute Deviation 6317 forecast was off by 6317 bikes over the entire year
    AbsoluteDeviation Avg 702 (mean. Abs deviation) forecast was off by 702 bikes/month

    WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE 0.6 ; 0.25 ; 0,15


    60% ; 25% ; 15%
    Dt At Ft Et
    3-period Moving 3-period
    Demand Avg Forecast Dt - Ft Error
    Jan 550
    Feb 375
    March 1,500 1077
    April 2,000 1632 1077 923
    May 1,300 1505 1632 -332
    June 875 1150 1505 -630
    July 850 924 1150 -300
    Aug 600 704 924 -324
    Sept 2,300 1658 704 1,596
    Oct 1,500 1565 1658 -158
    Nov 700 1140 1565 -865
    Dec 600 760 1140 -540
    -630
    Sum 10,725 bicycles tires
    Avg 1223.0 bicycles/month
    Bias -630 overstocked
    Bias Avg -70 average overstocked bikes/month
    Absolute Deviation 5668
    ABSOLUTE DEVIATION AVER 630

    EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
    α= 0.1
    Dt Ft Et |Et|
    Dt - Ft
    Demand Forecast (α=.1) Error
    Jan 550 1080 -530 530
    Feb 375 1027 -652 652
    March 1,500 962 538 538
    April 2,000 1016 984 984
    May 1,300 1115 185 185
    June 875 1134 -259 259
    July 850 1109 -259 259
    Aug 600 1084 -484 484
    Sept 2,300 1036 1264 1264
    Oct 1,500 1163 337 337
    Nov 700 1197 -497 497
    Dec 600 1148 -548 548
    0.1 Forecasting: 0.3 Forecasting
    Sum 13150 Sum
    Avg 1096 Avg
    Bias 79 Bias
    Bias Avg 7 Bias Avg
    Absolute Deviation 6537 Absolute Devia
    AbsoluteDeviation Avg 545 AbsoluteDeviat
    |Et|

    1191 stockout
    8 stockout
    725 overstock
    542 overstock
    409 overstock
    1525 stockout
    250 stockout
    767 overstock
    900 overstock
    6,317
    21450 seats 10,725

    the entire year


    ast was off by 702 bikes/month

    |Et|
    923 STOCKO
    332 OVERS
    630 OVERS
    300 OVERS
    324 OVERS
    1596 STOCKO
    158 OVERS
    865 OVERS
    540 OVERS
    5,668
    21450 seats 10,725

    0.3 0.5 0.7


    Ft Et |Et| Ft Et |Et| Ft
    Forecast Dt - Ft Forecast Dt - Ft Forecast
    (α=.3) Error (α=.5) Error (α=.7)
    1080 -530 530 1080 -530 530 1080
    921 -546 546 815 -440 440 709
    758 742 742 595 905 905 476
    981 1019 1019 1048 952 952 1193
    1287 13 13 1524 -224 224 1758
    1291 -416 416 1412 -537 537 1438
    1167 -317 317 1144 -294 294 1044
    1072 -472 472 997 -397 397 909
    931 1369 1369 799 1501 1501 693
    1342 158 158 1550 -50 50 1818
    1390 -690 690 1525 -825 825 1596
    1183 -583 583 1113 -513 513 969
    orecasting 0.5 Forecasting 0.7 Forecasting
    13150 Sum 13150 Sum 13150
    1096 Avg 1096 Avg 1096
    -253 Bias -452 Bias -533
    -22 Bias Avg -38 Bias Avg -45
    6855 Absolute De 7168 Absolute De 7409
    569 AbsoluteDev 578 AbsoluteDev 618
    Et |Et|
    Dt - Ft
    Error
    -530 530
    -334 334
    1024 1024
    807 807
    -458 458
    -563 563
    -194 194
    -309 309
    1607 1607
    -318 318
    -896 896
    -369 369

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