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As J>~r New Syllabus .o fVTU,20'1s ·s~h~rpe_ . . ·I
. ' Choice Based Credit Sys't ~~(Ctics).. ,.. -. -r
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·ALL IN ONE
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:s.UNS.TAR .EXAM's·cANNER'.
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 II CONTENTS :II
As Per New VTU Syllabus w.e.f 2015-16
Choice Based Credit Syst~m(CBCS)
1. . Internet of Things Technology
► CBCS Model Question Paper - 1· 28 . :
J\
03,-
► CBCSMo1el Question.Paper - 2

2. ,Big Data Analytic~

29-56
~i
SUNSTAR ,. - · . ' . ..

:► 'c iks Model .Question Paper - 1: .

..
_03 - 4p·
·► ~B~S M~<l,el Que~ti6n p~p_er - 2.
~
,,
4?~ 84
► CBCS ivfo~~l Question ~aJ:J~r -· ~ 8S-i24 ·· .
. -: .
3,.
►'CB_CS.M,od~i.Question ~api~:i f .. .. 03 -1,9
.
► CBCS ~o<l;el Que;stion,Pi P,.er ~·.2. .
. : ·-: : . ·. ·: ,' "• . . -~ . .: .~. .:, ·-. 'i 20 - 3,6 !NtERN.El
.
OF THINGS:
" , ·, . " . ... . ' .
IECH
·. . . ' :- "
N_
OtOGY .,:_
' . : ' .·..,,,i . ·. .
:
' . . . . . .
. .
. .
. .
.
.. ' •.

.:4i' · . SystenrMod~iing and Sim'ui~tior{

► <;:BCS.Model Que~tion .Paper ~ I: ·03 ~ 24 .
'·
► CBCS Model Question P~per ~-2 25- 44

' : ..
. . ,-: ; •••. _: ·-·-· : ... _ .
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 VII! se-.w (CSf(ISO

As Per New VTU Syllabus w.e.f 2015-16

..Ch o1ce
· Based Credit s·ystem_(CBCS)

'.O 1cy
spncc,.._ _,__.,......,
Domnili
ace
SUNSJAR
. ·- . . . .. .

Policy driver is.the control mechanism: TilliS the objects_i11 the d~~ain space.and thi; .
sel of l'll:C:is -in ru!e space lire combined for decision i.e. made by p9l_ic.y driver. Arnle is •. ·
,ihat all network faill]l-CS are to be reported to engineering group. i\,stateme1i( that this-. ..
ruie applies to tl1e o;ierations personnel anhe network mana_geii1M\ desk-is ii policy.•:_';;.
. . . . . . •.• . . . . . . . . ' .. . :• .(:
· b: Explllin fault_detection; IQcation _!Ind isolation techniques. · (OR ~forks ..
._Ami. fa~\lt detection is ~~complished by using ei_thcr apolling_sche'r:ie or by generation;
·. · - traps. "An application program generates.the ping commMd periodically and ·wai
. rorresponse. Connectivity is dedni·ed broken when a pr_e set ni1~ber ofconsec11ti :
. responses ar_e not received. The frequency of pinging and pre set m1mber for fail11're
detection _rilay be optimized for bala~_ce between.·traffic over head ·and the rapidity,
- .--- -.·. _w~th which faihir~ i~ d~ ec~d._TiiiEs genetic ·trap van_be set in·the agents, giving :
. them cap,~bili_tfto·rep·o1t ~vents·to·tfie11cnvork;-:ml\fla~ement.system....withJegiti.mM
... . . ·:·commiinity name~ Advantage ·-of .traps .ove1; _polling) s,Jl1~U~i!ure --~~foction .is
· accompiished faster with less trafficoyfhead.. • ; :-- . , : ·, . ,-. • ·.
•Fm_1lt locgtion us_ing a simple approach would beto dete.ct all.the network components
· • t_hat-have failed. The orig1n of tne pro.ble_m could;th~n be traced by tI~ve!iing ,the
-topology.tree to where the -problem ·sta1ts, lfan °int~rface: card pnaroutcr fatted, all
nianaged cci;11ponents.ccinnected to that. interface woii.14 ind~cate fail11re. :. . · . ·. ·:
-i ., After liavino located where:th_e fault .is; next :step iii.to. isolate th~ .faiilt': Fii-s_t is to-
j·.- . detei-mine1~1ieth,er the problem is failure of the.component or failure of physical
ii;•.· link: Let'US i1ssume that the link is not the problein,and the lnterface.card •iS the
proceed to isolate the prob.km tothe laycr,ihat is ~atisirig, Ex~essive packetl_~ss_ina
cause disconnection nnd can measure the packei-loss by .pinging, if p,flging can.:,
;) . .· · i,scd; We <;l11l query the ~a-rious Ml_B param:ters' on the _node hselfqr 0,1otlie1:r~la\
. •. . . . .. nodes to localize farther the cm1se ofll_1e problem. :. . ... . . . .· .,.. ,: _:'\ )

f r"":::;~"~~;:~;s~'' ~•·!~'~J'1':~~F'"';:1~~~--~,,
~ ~ -. - -~--- __ Ille idralsa)ution to lociiting and isolating the faulfis toh~v·e a~ artificial inte!llg~\

-- - :---.-~ - ~ - - :
- --
·, • _...
----_- :-:
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 SYSTEM MODELLING AND SlMUL/\TION
111s l'Gt C!IOICI'
SYLLMUS

11,\Sl 'll rnrn1 r SYS I FM (l'IICS) s<.:111 :MI:. )

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Eighth Scm\:slcr n,r,, [Jcgrcc Examination
. CIICS. Model Question l',1pcr - I
SYSTEM MODELING AND SIMULATION
'

Time: 3 hrs.
I SU :tt·: . I:... Note: A11.1·wer 1111)' FfVE/nll r/tte!I/ • • · · ., Max. Marks: 80
. . . . , u11., ,..1t1f!,•11111: ON/; /11/l q111!.11l1111 fr111/1~ndt 11111d11/e.
I- I I' Ol
·..~(·.-
Tur:,I ~umh('r or l.rcrurt lloun • 40 Exam lluurs
Modute·-1
. MODULE 1 . . . . . ,,,
1i1troduciion: When simulation is the appi·oprintc tool nnd when it is 1iot appropriate, Advantage~' L:: ~ith i'. 'nc.:it di:i~r:1111 ciplllin lhc steps in Ilic sinmlation study.
•m~~~d~ . . .
. (O~Mai-b)
and disadvantages of Sin\ulniion; Arens . of npplicnt1011, Systems . and_ system cnvironmci\t;
. Probfein
Components of a system; Discrete and contimious systems, Model ofa sy~te11i; Types of Mode{
· formulation
[)i_sc;rele-Even(System Simufati_on examples_:_Si1m1latio11_ of queuing syste.ms.:·.. .. . . . . ...
Gcncr:al Principl~s; Shnulation·sort,varc: Cci1icepts in Discrete-:E,,ent ·simuiniion .. Tlle.E\iei1 . 2 .' ~etting_of obji:ctives ru,d
·. Scheduling i i'ime~Advai1c'cAlgoritlim, Manual ~imul_atioii Usi1ig E~e.nt' ~pheduling : , ·· . .· : ·. . · .' overall project plan
. ' . : .. .. . .. . . . . . . . . . ;. -~·· -· -~-. ..

MODULE 2. :
. Statistic.ii Models •in Simul:ition : Review of terminology and cond1;pts, Use.fol statisti ; Model Da!a
models,Discrele distributions .. Co11tinuo;1s distributions,Poisson pro~ess, En;piric~l distributio1 conccptunliz.1iio~ co!fection .'. .
Qu~ul11g Mocicls: Characteds'tics of q(1euing systems,Qt1C\lillg.notadon,Lo11g-n111 measui:ei:
... p_e.rforny:inc_e of que·uing systc1}1s,Lon1t1'\111 measures of perfonnanc~ of que~ing systen1s .{'r'
:j ,.
· ,Steady-state belmvioi-ofr,J /G/fqueue, Nc(works cif _queucs, . . . .. . . .. •. .: •;;: )•t·
:. ' ,·- . . . ,. . . . . .,
I ~· ••!..

. MODULE3
. ~andom,Numl>cr Gcncri1tjo11: Propertiis of rand.om ;1un1bers; Cic1;cration_of pseu<lo-r~i' '.
numbei,, Techniques for generiltjng ra11do1n .1iumbe(s, Tests for Randoin Numbers, · .· .. . ':';
_j;l__ ._ ._: -~·1"'.!~:"\''.~,~:i:1~~ _?cncnii_ion£ h~:VCfS\: tran~·form_'.ec~i~i_que 0 cc_e~ta11ce-Rejccti~ii tec_~nique: \
. . . MODOL~,r----=--
· _- _ _ _::.:':=-_jc_.::.:..:.~ .
. Input Mo1lcli1;g: Daiil Cotiecticin; lde~tif};ing t!l~ distributi~ll- ;vith d~fa; Par~ineter ~stimatj
1
~.
·~a~~~~~Itta~i~t;:~~• ~::~~~~,e~i;~1~;1 ::t~
nb~-~ fo\s~on proc.es~'. s~:ecti1'.g _inp~t}otlels \Vith ;:
1 1
Estim~iion oi'Absoliltc rc·~t;ormauc~: Types of'.siiiH,latiolis,,\Vith respect'tc,'. outpli,t analyj
11 ata, ·Measures qf perfornim:ce and l~eir:cstimatfon, Coritd.; . .. .·
: ,Stoc~asiic n~ture ofo~1t~ut ~_

l
fl)
nl
I-'"'"= or ,.,rmm,h,, '"" th,jc ,;:~f.:,~i},;., ,,.,,,;,
.ConthluclL,Output analyshifor steady-state simulations. : . . ·. :· . : .. . . 11 '
V~rili~ati11n, c.,lil.Jr:1tio1t Ai1d v,;lilfotion: 01itimizatio11: Mot!d b11ildinii, verificatio, '
\l · validation; Vl:~i(icatioii cif_si1m1l~ti~n 111,odds, Verificatio1; of si1irnl~tio11 models,Cal\brl\~lO_l\
. :~ . •. val_idation of models, Optilnization_via Simulation.
~ ". ._,~~:=:- :·.::,:-.:~~- :=:;\~• ~-'<:
-·~1:;"-··-:-._ .·•>· .· .--::;~:·=-:-·~::. .:::·:·, ~.-:. _~;'-~.~: ·i.~ •~; .: _: :... . '. : ·- . ' . ~ ·, > -~, .·. ,.:..:. -

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 VIII Se.-iw (CS£/IS£)
I. Problem formulntion 12. Implcrnc11t:1tio11
Every stl!dy should begin with a s1Mcl\lc1it of the problem . -~he success of the implcmcnlalion hasc de . .
• If the ~:.i.~mc:;t is pr:,v icicci by 1hc j:olicy1;;~k,·1~ ,)r those th:!t hav<' the problent, hnvo been pcrfornmt The simulat' p . pellds on how wdl the previous steps
I l . ' ion mo, 1e1mg ca11 h I, k . 4 h .
\h~ nmd) ~l must c~su r..: ,h::t tl~c jnob!c.~:~~ Ucin~ d~s\.· :·ibed ·:s dc;-, d y uncicr1;tuod, t> 1n~c:- \ on si, rs of ~tcp I and ~tcp · ro ·en ir.to - i: asc
2
·- lfn problem statement is being developed O)' the analyst, it is.important thnt the • II is period of discovery/ orientation. . .
policymakers understand and agree with the formulation . • The analyst may lrnvc to restart th1:.proccss if ·1 . ti . ·- ,
2. Selling of objectives and ovcr:1II project plan · , • Recalibration and classifications ma occu . I is ne tuned, ·. , --
II phnsc:• Consist of step 3 4 5 · · _ dy 1·111 11115 pha~c: or another phase.
The objectives indicnte the questions ·to be answered by simulation. At this point, .-. , , , 6 an 7 .
n· deter'mination should be ' made co11ceming_whc.thcr s"in111 lntiqn is the·appropriate. / _•. A conti11ui~g interplay is required amo·ng th t . . .
meihodolcigy ro,: the probiem :is formulated and.objectives as stat!,!d, - : ·•. ~;; • Exclusion of model user results i ... ' , ,es cps ; ·. . ' . . .'' -_
IIlph i ; C , ., f . . . n 1mp)Jcat1ons during implcqient.'ltion _..:
3. Model conccph1nlizntion _ . _ _ · _ ·: .".: :' .:, , 1 sc,~ 011s1sts o step 8, 9 and 10 __ · - , :' ::, .,._
The ai1· of modeling is enhanced by an nbil1ty abs;rnct the essc11tinl features of a· > • C?i1ceives n'tltrotig(1 plan for exj,eri~ent,ng _. _ ) >-
prolilem, .to s~lect and modify basic ilssuniptions tlrnt _characterite the system, anci' . . - • Discrete ev~nt stoc,hastic is a satisfoctiol) experiinen·, - . ·, .. -_- ,.,.':, ·-·.
·11tei1 ei1rich and -elaborate lhe model until n useful approximation results,· •>· The ·/ ' bl s estimate~
,_ • ~ P· vnna_ e_
· -· that ·contain,
- · . random error: arid · th·. efi,·,.J,,.·• , ·:, .
. _4, Dnta collcctio(1 _ · · _ _ _ __ · :. · , __ · · stat1st1~l.analysis is requireci'. __ . _ er ~ proper
There is a constant interpl:i:y bet\veen the co1istrn_ction ofthe modd mid the collection IV p!inst:- Coi1slsts of step It iu;d 1-2· _ _ _ _ ,,. _ _
ofihe needed input data. As the co'mp·lexity of the model change$, the required°data •• S11·ccessfuJ implementation dep~~ds O;l ihe involvement .0~ :_; :: '_. . d .. .··. '
successful completion: , , -- :-. -· - - - . . cser,~ eve;rY. steps
;~e;:~~~l~::~!~~t~!'.tge. . ·· .· ·- - . ·: ;:.) . '_? :->' of
ii~~la(;i) <lv;int~g~~ ~11.<t<i;~i,1v~iI~~g~s simulatio~.c --
The modeller must decide ~hcl1ter to prograin the 111ci_del" in a sin\uiation !ai1gu~g'. Adv11ntagcs ofsnnulation -_: _ •. , · -- - .-- - J O&Marks)
sucli as GPSS/ H_Qr t()lise special pui"pose simuliltion softi-viire'.. - . '::_'.;{
..·- ~ei<~o/icies, . 0-~~rafoi~: pioc~d~re~,,;;:dcl\isi~n -, r'Jles, ,:inform~;;,~{ fl ·:; :_.
6.Vcrilied . - - . , . . ... ,. _. ,_ .. , -, --- - . _ - . - .,_ ·_ ' org_~•),IZ.~t1onal proc:edµ're~aud s001t"c;inbeexplorcd,~-th . d' . -.. -' __o~vs,
·verifidtio1i pe;tains"ta 'the c~nipt;tci- progran} pr~pat~d:for uie simulatiorimodf . <_ _:, J
'•O•

• •. OP,~_t'ati_~ns oftlie rea[system, - , . : _ ; · .:_ .?ut ~P({n~o~gomg .

. with complex models, it is difficult ifn oi impossible to tra~slate a model suc;cessfoUy
iij 'its entiretywithouta ·good deal of debuggii1g, · · · · · · ; ' -'·''
~ New har_dware ~.csigns, pl1ysie,1l layout, transporcatio~ svstems and so o~ ca~ be - .
tested without co11unittin11 resources for the· r , . 'f •' , ,, -,
_ _ _ _ _ 7. V:11idafc<l _ _ - _- -.·_- · . - _ -- . - - -- . · .: _- ,_, . -,. • H ti .. b ( o 1 acqurs1 1011. . . . ,
y~o 1e~1sa OU~ 1ow,orwaJ' Cer!ainphenomenaoccurscanbe1estedforti " \ :n ''
O _

=--o...--=='==-=,---.,-=- Nalidation usuall)'- is achieved ·throughi \h<;:,c~l_ibratio1Lo£Jhe_m.Q~J,J!!!Jtei'ativc ~--· ~ ~- 'll?tg!!t~l!l!_~e obtained--ab'ouMhitinte.raction..-of.y.zciables f tit . ..,(c crua_~It -.
. . - -. _. ; process of c·omparing tii;;:niodef ·a:g~iiis('acfua1 system behaviour and using-:-the:o, ", . . . . . C . . . ' ~

- - : _discr<ipail~ies bct~veen·the two am_lilicp _n_sightsgmncd, to inipro-.:e the itfodeL . ; -'_:

8.Expcrimcntaldcsig11 . . -- . ,: i /'' ·._' · ·_ • · __ ·- · \
. Tl;e.;lte1·1iati~es ihai are to~-~in{uiatetl ,ijl!~i ~~ deterin ined:-(he decisio1; COIT~emjitg which!
,. .:,~;;~!:~#rl::~:t;J!~t1t.im::i~IIJ~F" ·--.-~
-·. ' ;lllf~imatl?ll, ma ten als a1id so on _ar~beinlf:hcluslveiy delayed: >.·
< : ~-; -. : s,
·alternatives lo simniat~_ivill be_1l111ctio1i" of i'°u,is that have bce11 con1pletcd ri11d rinalysed.' ; .
: • :.\ Slf~!!l?tlpn ~t_udy_ C~I\ li~lp ii.t ,tinde_rst~ndirt iiJ101v tffe sy~r~m dpe;,;;s:n:th ~th ..

.?g;;;gi"E![tS[1:~;:•~1r:.hmtit~ ~"m •0;;t,'' 0 10

:·rii~~;,: a·:;~;itals th!lr~h~:~t~;e.ni opi~~~t ' ' :- . ~. ,:.. '>\ _
:~-. !1"•
:_,.:,. ., .' ._, Model_b~til~i;,g ;:e_quit:;s: ;peciai t1;init~g ,ills.
an :~~ that: i~' l~n~d \.~ij
time . :
.Giv~n·ihc: a1;alysis of runs ll)at have.b~'en 'coni pletcd ·tiie an.alyst ~iete:nn !1ies v.ii,ethe( ~nd_t1~r,~t!gl_1.e~p.~1 1en,ce. F~rtl'.e~ ,mof\!,. ~~?.mod_els:al"e; constr.i!ct~d'G? different
compe~ent mdtv1~uals the)'i nugltt have s11nilarities but it'is'hioltJy unlikei n' ...,.
additional runs' are 'needed ai~d.what desigii those ai!ditionai expei-inientatlon' shou_lf
·-f'ollow. --- · -,- · · · -- -/.,: -·..-. ,._:.. _..., .-,-
i1~ Documc.-itatiou·a;ul rcport'i°11g'. :. ·
· ·_ · :/. ··.·-.'... ·-

There-m:e _two type~ pf doc.urnei1tat'im~prcg~11n1:a;,d .progress; . ..· _ _ _ . . :\-,. ,_.,

. !E~\~~:E;,;.~:i!' ;-;::Fff;~,{!; :~''""' ,;os, ,;,,'.":,;,,:,,,i,,:; "·'
, : ,, } , _~oni_,- vana~I~,. s_o It _ca11 ,be hard lo distinguish whellier :an: ,j
,- ra 1idon 111ess: · -· ~ . ,- _: - · - . > j
- -~~s~ 1_v~'. 1on 1s ~ rc~ult ofsy~tem '.nter~l_ntiorish1ps ·o1iof _
, = = ====·=_:cilt::_,i':e'f'!&gfil~~()li'-' )(t_lfr.PE'2 " _ :~ . in to-"be iised it ai11 b' i(I
-==
:i .-,- _, ~.--'~~~-·--"-,,". n11ic.ordifferent'a1i<1lysts,-if cciu ld:benecessnry~to ,undet"Stam.LhowJhe-jlrOg(~
::-1....,..
:1
- \ ip~iritff'i;-,': ., ->, ·: ,. · ·:.~---~ · :._ ,-~-~,~~=~,.-- ~ ,: · •i:.'/ .~.:.: ::~,!:l2i::::;f,l~~:~~f'~!.~;,~~~~::~:;~;:::~•,,f 5~···•·.•~-; ___:>s .

-4•i7'"°;--•·
 VIII SeAw (CS f /IS[)

· OR . Service time dctcrml11111ion

2. a. A small store has only unc chl'cl< out counter ci1sto;ncrs ni·rivc 111 the checkout
counter at random times th~t nrc I to 8 minutes nparl, Ench j1ossible vnluc of Custo'mcr . Random digit
Service lime
intcr-arriv:,I time has the ~a mc probability or 0.125 the sen-kc time vary from I 84 4
1 tu 6 minutes, with probability show below. 2 i8 ·2
Service time mimitcs I 2 3 5 · 6 ) .. 87 s.
Probabilities 0.10 0.20 0.30 . 0.25 0.10 0.05 4 81 4
Gh•cn·thc randoni <lioit distribution for customers nrriv:1ls :1s 64,·112, 678, 289;.- ·• 5 06 I
871 mul for service ti7ncs·s4, 18, 06, 91 sequentially. · · 6
De,-eiop simulation t:1blc for 6 ci1stomcrs, Find . . . Simulntio,; ·tablc ~or single
·
91
..
channel qucurng _problem
.5
(i) Average waiting time (ii) Avcrngc service timl! (iii} Avl!rngc time customer C11slo111cr . Inter Arrival Serrfcc · Time Waiti1_1g
Time Time ·.. ldd
spends in the system. · .(10 Marks) . arrival · · 1imc - · time _ service r · srrvlu
Ans. Distribution of lime between nrrivnls tlnlc · . Dcgins ~::~: tnds.
. <wlomcr ~il!lt or
spcbds •~foll un-icr
Tinie b/w Probability . Cumulative · Rm1d@1 digit , ~ . • 0 O 4'
.I ; .4 ... ' 0 '
arrivals· . , probability" .Assignment . l ,. .·2. .4 J
3. 6 5 0.
0.125 . 001-125 I· .2 .5
1 6 .4 II . '> .•Q
·. : 4 · 11 · J
2 0.125 0.250 ts .o
3 0.125 · 0.375 .251 -375 ' 11 15 -4- 16
0
_6 , 18 5 18 · .0 23 -5 .. , •. . . 2
4'. 0.125 0.500 376-500 ·
·S. 1.Averagewaitingtimr:; - Total ti1~e_customers wait in queue
0.125 0.625 ' •so1-62s
'G. · · . i ; :· · to(al num_b_er~f custome~:. . .
0'.125' '1' 626~7.50 ·
7. 0. 125 •().875 - '., 75'1-875 . f__ . . ·,, i ·· . \ ~=-2::1Jh1d1wt~·:_ ,· . _:·. _:·~ ··:·.·'. ..:,: :·· .
8 0.125 . l.000
·. 2.A~ei-iigeservic~'ti~e- i'dt~lseriiicctiine :
Service lime•distribution · . ·:· . . -: · . . . . .-. . _-

· '· . · / : total muniier ¢f customers • ·

, · Service time , . , Probability : , Cumuiative probability Random digit
7-. -~·:· -•.::....:::.t... ,:: --:,.cl·==~-;,~::'::::r=_:::i:-; :o_i1uii=_:i::d:c::::::::=-:--;ri::~.o~"-=:::::-:_ ~~--~ .:f,,
:, ;::;,;oii"r_;-,iio;:,'"';--
;~ -=~-~.
i: . . 0.20 . 0.30 · . . 11-30 · . ."-
.j 0.30. . 0.60 3 h60- ,•:_~/~~;~~t t_i;ne c; siom:ei• sperit_in~ystei_l); . :Totaltime c~iom.ersspend in-thesysl~ · . ~;

_4.' ' 0.25 . _ ~': \· tofal_ri_u~:5~rofcii,stciirte~:~- _>,·: ·.

.• 5 3
0.10 . ·:. ! 0.95 ·. . . 86-95 : . • ._.. _, ·. , ~~=5.8.3minutes ·• · ·._.: _· ~ ;_
.·:.0.005 . · LOO .'
· • Iritei: arrival time dct~i:mination ·- ,
. :z. ··ij; Explain event &chcduling / time advance ' .alg,orithm ge::r~·ti·n~.'syst~m : by.
. - -· sna)Jshot at clock= t and-clock= t · · -· - - -(06--... 1' ·
.·Cl\Sto~ier ·:Ji.:a11dori1 digiti . TiniebM arrivals · ·: , • . !' . . mar <S)
Ans. After the syst~m sn~psh~t at sunulat1011 tinie clock= t has been ·updated the 9lock is· . ·
·.,.
. -r · 5 1
a_dvanced to imul~t 911 tune ~lock;='.(, the imminent e\'enin61ice is'remove·d fi-01i1 thi•:'·. .., ._ ·
,.. 2 . 064 . ., FEL and event is eX:ecuitio · .. ' . · . · . · ·. , . · .>· • • ·.· -.: ··· · ·
~· .. --. ~ e A t tii~~\ 11~\,Vfotur.e c~c;;;;iirny
ormight 1ior be gelicr~ted:6.ui; if ah~··,are, :tlt~y , ~. ·,;

r
-.1·-:·:,..
. . . _. . _- _~re :s_chedule~ by creat111g e.vents noJic~ and putting them iJi . to thei~ prop~r
·.. ~:-'.:-;--·:.- p~s1~1?.n. on tl~~FE~. .. l-· .\ .. : • . .. . . · _ :·,-:~·:_·_. __.:. :~.. ,: _: . . . · =. : :r::.~
.. . ... • After•the 111.hy systeili sna shot for tim1ft has . . - . •.
, tortirnm~\L<2.fJ!i~.lie:W:ii1iiiiiiiei1t eventl s.execule<f,..c~~-_.- ~---.-:-----'-c:-,-: - - ~ - - ' -- -
,~~i+~~::~~M
·~~~~ .,: ' . . . . I •

- - - -'--- ~--~-~~--..::.....c._.;__.....:.c_____'-c--
-- - ------- -
-- -. -- --·----- -- -- --
- -- -
. - ----
-· .. --- - ---- -
. --.
' .
------- ---·- - -- --------- ·-.
- -·-·· - . . - - _ _,___ - ---~-
·--~- .,--~j-: - :r:" : ;..;~:;,-:t~·~·;:~~"!:~::-:::t~:\ :::.~:.<Z ~~~ ~-:.:~--::~·~...-~ ~ . -.- -· -•: _v · ~
., -. "'"1; •
: ,\ . ~r ...:--~- ~·,.->·--~-,-.
·.. . . . . . _..t.--~ ~:. \/.~ : _,. . ··1 .-:• • . . · : . ~. ; : .~ :· : , ; : . : '~ .. ,4 ••• ' ' !
 VIII Sem, (CSE(ISf)
• This process repeats until the ·sinrn_lation is over. •
• The sequence or actions that a simulator must perform lo adv1111~e lhc clock
l:1(x 1 < x<x:) aaF{~:)-F(;i) = t:'
a.nd bu ild n new system snnpshot is called the event sd1cd11ling / tune advance
ls propmlionnl lo the leng:h of the interval for all x, :u1d x, sati~tying as-., .<x.:;:b.
algori1\:m . . . . The mean and variance of the distribution ar_e given by. · . -
• The removal and aildition or cv.:nts from FEL 1s 111 -~gurc_. n+b . .
Old system snapshot :1t til)lc · · . E(x).=-.-
2
Clock , Sys:em state· Fut11re event list and
(S, \, 6) (3, t1)-+Type 3 event to.occur at time t1
(I, t2) - Type I ~vent to occur ntti\ne t2 V(x)= (b-~)2 .
. (I, tl) ..... Type I ~vent to occur at times : .. . /;: ;}.?-: :.:J ' . ,,; ,:• ·, .· .. I.... " :' >.
:=,TI 1c!p.df.~qd.cdf.\Y.h~-n -a:=:-· I ~\nc.l.b=:6.~areSho\vn :bClo,~....., .·, 1' ·!' i
·· · · · . , . ·· ,· >. ' .;,; ·t:~l : .
. ··. · .pd~- .· . .. . -···' ·' ' cdf-
. (2, t) -+Type i evei,t to occ.ur·at time 1. . _. r ;i ,F \ ;_; :!li

Event/ schcdulin° / time advm1cc algorith111 · . . .. : ,· _..·. . • :. ·. ,:

·· :.· ·.: '•·_, ,·1,l_·_k_·_J
.
.
• . : -; , • . ; ' «x)•t ·.
'l . ,
·. ·:,:L, .:: 1:r'·l;t... . _-
L_ •!· · •. •.
• ' . • I' 1.0' ,. : :•.·
Step-I;. Rem_ove tl~c cvcntnotice for the_im1~1i11¢11t eve11f (event3 (time_4) from FEL: . ·.:. -~•.• :·• _! . • • .0:2 .. ·f.::'{ ,;· ·r 1· ·· 1·.•_:_-. . • o.g ,.. ·' !: =
. Step 2:- Adva·nce·clock to _im111inent eventt11n~·-· . · . .
Step 3:- Execute _im11iii1ent event·u~dare syste111 ,srnte. _C.:ange 1
.• · ·', . : :• ·. .
_e rt.ty _attribt~es
. .
~llt .. '· .,,, •·,:·,: .,i·i ' .:·.-!:' ·. ,,_. _ 0.6.
.·, .
. set 111embei,hi1> as needed., . · . . . · : . . ·.), ·.· .: . . , . /"
>step 4:i Generate future events and place iheir·evcnt-notice mi.E.ELrnnk by e~en:t( o., r ;,·. ·_•_:_. 0.4
tinie. · · · · ·· · · · -- ; ·- _ 0.2:.

Step 5:- Updat_e cumulative statistics and co~nters.

·New system sm1pslui·1 nt lime t , · ·
Clock · ·System state .·:.. r-uhtre-ev~nt lis·t.
(5, !;~)- · (l,t)-Type I cventtooccur.attimet;
\. . (( ti}-Type 4eventto.occu"r"attiriiet*
:·, (ltt; )-Type I eventoceu1.-,frtl · · . ·. : .1
.. · .(Q~ hT,Ypti 2.evel)t to occur.at tinie_t--: :=.::· .
. ·. ··--- . _ _,__-..:.::...._+·-- - · · ~ :-'_ -1
•, '·-:,,;_,... , , Modul_c·- 2
. · 3, ~; ·-~~j,i:\ii; ih:efoilq~~jrig ~Qntii;uo~~ distr/butio_~; : :...
, '. .i) li1ii'roriti:disfriiii1tfo1i ii) Exponcuual tlisfributi~JI,_

·, i-
Ansi i) U11lfo1;tn dist_l'ibution • , · · · · · ·. '.' : ·. :· ·. ' · : , . : · ,, ·:: ; .
. · A raridoni ~ariable x. is_uniformly distr.ibute~ ·on the interval (a, b) 1f 1_ts pdf1s given_by
1
- ; a~x'.'sb ·.' · -· ·
f(x) ti-a, · - ---
•-:-;: · c 0, ' Othetwise
·,__ ih~,cdt \s·~,veiiby ;-' ·
' : ( ·, .·x"<-n°'
·.1 rm·.~~
-=::.:}~~<b...
- -~-'--'-----~ . -- -:-·· 1.__-~x~=2~b---- ~ ~ - --~ ~ - -
-.. -,-,~··:-t;·_::-}'"----:0';;-, -~_,,,, ;-~-.'~-;,c· ;'- - ' :;: ~ ··: "'i
8 ·------· - :
- ~:--4L~-.:__-.-,-,--"-__:_:_:__ __:__ _..c.._--,--,-- ~__:_=_:_...:.......,.:____:_...:.......;~
-- - -· ·
 VIII Se.1'l'tl (CSE/IS£)
The pop11lnlio11 of rotcntial Cll.\lOmm, rcfc, ,cd lo as the calling popuiatiOI), 111ay be .
ass11111cd lo be finite or inlinilc. • .. ·
F~r ~xmnpl1:, consider :1 bank o:-fivc rnachi n~s that arc curing tire~. Aller an interval
of t 11 11c a 11rnd1ir1c mr10111atic;ilfy opc:1s :11 .. I 1111:st be allcndcd bv .i worker who
.,. removes the tire and ;111:~ ni, 11::curcc! ti:e .•1 10 :he 111acl:i!;c. The ~ilc.hin~s arc the
~. :.~~~ . CllSfomcrs, who _. arrivc ,ll the insta11t they ,mtomaticall)' opi:n. The worki:r is the
scr_vcr who serves an open nm:hine as s0911 as possible.' The calling p.opulation is.
' :\ / finite and consists ofrivc machines.· · ·
In system W)th a large populati~n of potential c~tomer;, the c.,lling i~ ·usuaJly
assumed to be infinite. · · . · . · · . . ' .. ·
J. IJ. A produl:tio:n process ;nanufacturcs computer ~hips..on the averngc ni 2% n<in ,:::. 2. Systcm·capucily . . . .· : · . . . ·. . ·
conforming. Evcryd11y, n random smnplc of_siw 59, is taken from the procc_ss_. lf.,. <,.
In many qucuii1g systems, (here is limit to t:1c nu~bcr of cu~to~iers· 1hai ,~ay be in
the sample.contain~ ·more !hair ti"o non confornling chips, the process w11l.·bc ·. ·. the waiting lin'c or system. •· · · · . .·· ·; . · ·. · .
stopped. Compute the prob~bility that the_pr9ccss is stopped by t_he sampling.
For c_xample,. a·n auto1trnlic car. wash:might have room forrinly io ca~·,o. ~v~·~ in line . .
~chcme :111<1 :ilso compute mean and ,•nrinncc. · (08 Mark.\) ·
to enter.the mechanism. It m~y be illegal for cars to wait.in the s1ree1.:An .arrivit1g
Ans: Consider the sampling process as n=SO Bernoulli trails, each with (r.:'0,0~, lh~n customer· who finds the_system foll do~'s ~oi -~~ter- but:jin~cdfately,' t~ .~1i{ cailing . ·
L . -the total .number of n9n conforming chips ,in the .snmple, x, would have n_ bmorn_1_nl popul111ion ,· . · . :I'
! distribut101{ given by · · · · ·
3~ThcAl'rh•~i 11roc~ss . . . . : .· . · .. , · . •· .·
The arrival process for infinite populari_on n:odcfs·fs us~_a_lly chnr2~_1; rizc{in rernis
r(,)arirom);,(o,8(', '::::::;;:' . . .. . < '"
of.inlcr arrival· tiincs of succcssivt: custori:ers. Arri~als. inay ..occ,ur..at__si.:!iedulcd
.. ti!nes or.~l random l(mtis. )Vlicn ,at random 1irnes, t~e inter ar;riv~.1iii!t~ ,r_e:usually
1
.. characterized by a11robabiHty distrib.ution. ln·nddition, customer,; may rirrive one of
It is'lllll~h ·c~s-ici- :10 ~bri1p(itc theriglHs:h~~,d ~fde CJfthi following _ide~iti,fy i9coinp(t}( { ' a tfo1e_o1, in)atcllli r1,c batch n1ay be of const~n·t size;;,_of flll1~0ril s]~:.:; ·. . .
ti;~ probability that :nioi·_e limo 1vio_,nori confor.min'g chip~ ;,re:fmJnd 111 ~sample;· ·· · ·· . .4: Queue hclrnviour·.,md Quc\lc discipline: .. : .· . .' .. : . '. . . ' .. . ,' .: -, ., .: ·
P(x~2r=I-P. (xs2) . ·· · .. .. . .. Qi1ei1e behavio11r refers to the actiiJns <ic11st~~e~ ~hi!e. in ~- queu~ w~iti;fg for · .
. . TiieprobabilityP(}:~2)isc~l.clliiit~dfi·on1 ·' se_rvice to ~egin)ii some s,iiuations, thire IS a possibility :J1at incoming custome.rs

:~ -~- :_= ~.-·:·:'·:~~·; . _

:,;f~~1)~~~)~(0.9s)~~-:~~-~-~- =
.-.~.-=--:'=--====:=:;::==::::§:::::;:~ : ·: ..;·:
!1r:cosYcimcrWil
L~-~::;·~-E~1"icli.
\V
~r~~u~;re~~;:t6·ih~o;:~~~
1 1

lle'd1oseri.lor service
J
~il~~~rs:~n a~~~~~·~'.~~~tl~~j~~s _ ~
Wilen
- _
a server liecoines free.'.,;,', , . '; .- ·.- - .-,- -
· .. '. ~(o.98r',+~o(o.0_2)(0:9s't•ti22.~(o_.02)l(,0'.9g(_·.
.;o.n - . . . .. .'
·. .'!;t;~c:l~rc:i::;~1::ni/~.~ct::I~: ~~~~:1:i~~~e·_
-cic~~tei '.b/s1,:,:;/ ~
i:;~;i~y :1_nrty .
. •'be ·cqnsinrir 01•:'of: 'rlindoni ·dui;itron. In,the la'tter _.case;-. {S;; S~;_·sj.. c.i. }vi'i-usuaHy . .
•Thus, the probability tha't the producti~n process is stopped·on any day, bas:d on ~he · charnclerized as "a. si:que1ice of fiidepeildent and :identicallr distribnted:·-rnndom • ·
·sampling proccs~, is approximately 0.08. The mean number o~ 11011 co11forn11~g c_lups . virriab'les. Tli~ .expo1ie,1tiaL :weib1i11; 11nii1.ma, log ':i1on.nal -~iid: lrunca'ted.l normal.
. . i11 a ra1idom sampl,c pfsize 50 is giyen by. . . -. 'i'distributi<lrii :1ia:~e ~II l\cen' used SllCC~~sfo.lly'as niodcls' of service lit1ieffo.diffcren( .
t·,
. ·:·.~~)V)::'np~so(ci:0.2).~I ::_ · _. -; .· ,: , , . - _..:_ . . .· . . ·, '5itualio1;s, . .: ~ :'.. , · : _:. -::.~::~- ·/ ·/ - :: :,: .-:•;;~,:.:> >
_-'_> ': .: .·
·: -~;it! the v,iri.ancc is given hy_ • 4. h: . List the different queuing notations i1sing in .i)uc1iing systeiiis,: · , i i (~S Marks). . ~ ---
. V(x)=npq=;S0(0.02)(0.98)=0:9S i . Ans, ..Reccignizing the divei-sily pfqdeuing systcms,Kciidall propom\ anoin'ticinal'systeiu_·
'for, parnllel server systen1s 1vhic,h fms_becrr ividJl}'rtdopted. All .itb_ddged version
r- OR · ofthis conve~tion is ·bnscd on the forrrtrii A/8/C/N/K .. These lc\fors rc'present the

...r;.·_' .:,/ '. ,;:::·. ~~i{i~t~~i\~t~~~l;~~~j~j;:::~ ;/J~~~\~j:°~.sy~tcti;/:

· · f~lio~i~g syst~m charactt:r.isti~s. · ·_. - . · · ' · ·' ' ·.:'' · ··
. · krep'.escnts tile ·i_~ter nrriv;I timi di~~u,;;iio~ ..' .
:~ · ·· . nn:a ;ngf)o 11 \\ 101 - - . .•
 VIII Se.mt (CSE/ISO
I
C represents the number ofpnrallcl servers.
N represents the sy,stem cnpncity. .
D' = mn~ I si SN{.!_N - Jt,}
•
K rcjlrcscnts 1h.: size of thL· c;1\ling populA!io11. •
Co111mo11 symbols for A a:;d B inc! t:dc l\-1(exponcnti:il) [Y =max Jsi~N{R,-(i-l)\
D(constant or deterministic), Ek (Erlang of order k) .. N J ..
PH(plrnse - typcj, H (liyper exponential). G(flrbitrary ot· gene\·al) and Gl(gcncrnl
incfcpendent) ·· '. Slep 3:- Compute D= max (D'; D") · ·
Queuing notnlion for p:1r.1llel server systems . . Step 4:- ;he critical value,_Da for the specified significance lev~l a, and..the given ·
P,. - steady state probability of ha_vi11gn customers in tlie system. sample s1ze .N,
· P (t)- Probability <ifn customers in system at time t ·.. Step 5:- If D>Da, reject H0 oiherwise accept:H0•
A~ Arrival rate · · Problem · \, · . · ·· . · .
A;- Effective mivai rate
µ- Ser11ice rate of one se1:vcr
t: Server utilization..: ·
A.- Inter llffivnl_tiine be'rwcen custQmers Ii-I a~d il ..
/ ·s- Service time ofihe·n•~ arriving customer ·
.~ .

w- Total time speni in the syst;m by the n"'arriving customer ·. . 3 . 0.44 0.60 . 0.40 · o,J6-., O.Q4
w"•-'total time.spent in the waiting .line by customern ' ·. (,~ ,
L(t)-Tbe 1il11nber.ofcustomers in Quelie oftin1e t . . ,.. .· 4 o.s 1 .: ,o:&o : , o.60 .. . , .0.21., ; . . ,
L~(t) -'The 11\tl\lbc_r of-customers iifq_ueue at thne t . . . . · · .. ·· S .' 0,93 .· :-- 1-. _·, :0,80 .:: :: ·:•0:07 ,,·: ,.,i, O.IJ,·;:, ' ,::' ..: · ·..
·L-Loiig r~·n·li_(ne average' nuniber ofcusioincrs in- th(l system.·.: ·c~t~-p~Lte'D . i1iax(D\l:;i:) :; ·· ·: ,· :..• . ;S:, .· ·••.•.·' . ., :··: ,,; .,,:r :: : _-
.h~·Long rui1 tiin~ :ive,rage i1u:1~ber otcusto1i'iers in;Qimie , ' · D~ti\~x(0.26, 0.21), \ _: ; . , ·. ·f: ·,.,::.·:.'::•h
W- uii,g niri averagc·time:spent iii systeir) pel"customer· _::·..
WQ~ Long ,:ui1 average time spetidn Qtie~e-pd cusibni~i-. : '
. .._; ' . .... . ..·.:· .. .Mo1ule _~3 :· : ::>>
., ~~;~~\t;o~·:, ifiej~c~_ ; '~}:;~;:-/'. •.c:: · . ·: ~':0.-:?'.~;;r
:' · · ..f 11i E~pinhi st~ps in the kolniorgov ~ sinironv tcstThii sequciu.:e ~~dom:~;tmbcrt
~ c,..,·..:-~ ·:":- o:44;,0.81, ·0:14,cJi:os;:0;93:cni'<F•gcriei'-0fod-41s1·ng:killmilrgov-.:Sirilr'10v.;.tcstwiili~<
of 5-k_:;,:;u::.::!~~f!;~~;.~!:<,:~~~~aj;;.~;..:~Ll~Lc.
· . mca?1 a:=~;2_,:T!1c prndomu_umliers afc 0,4357,.0.4t16', 0,83S3; 0;9952-liildl0.8004. . : · ·
. . . . · \ : a;(l:05.to delcrmii1e iftli<1 hypothcsi~ fh\l( hc .n,tir:n~~~s ai•c on .the ini~ryal (0.1) : •
.'A~s,- ~:h~~;:~:t~\:~i11i~!~:~s~s.: ·</:.·. . .··. . ,· ··.'.
. . . . This tesi .cornp~res F(x) ofthe~nifo,fo1 distributiori with the eriipricnl Si~) ofth~ .
.(08rrt~rk3)
!nacccpfa~1:cr~J~ctioidechniquc· ·:! , ' ..,., , . _,:,.:·:'\/~~~~:rat~> · .....
.· . )tj this rnethod;iri'irndonj tnirhber isgeri~111led anci if it satisfi~s the plii1iciilnr.~bridiiion -
· .·_ only _thc_n the random variable is generated . . · · :. · · .· ., ..·,. . i':'_\ ' .
.·, ·. sample o{N observation •.. -: .. . :.·,: '· · ·· · .. •. · .. ;,·< · Pi'oblcn\ ·' ·. · · ' ·· · · · ., · ·
0 • ·,

F(x)=c.x, 0:5,x S.1 · · S(ep .1:-s~tn;,,,0,P=L ... . "· . ,,.

· ._:.If th~:saii1ple :(rom th~Jaildoi:n numb~r ~~ne.ratQ~ j5 R;;k;,.;jt;,,,i,;e;\. i~e .empi·icnl'
:· .J~ie1~:6·R,'."0.4357; P,_;i: R~~t•l_.0.'4357~0.4357 .
Si,,(x) is dcfinedby . . ' . . . . . . .· · · ·
~tepJ :- Sincl:l P=MJ 57<0:8 !87, then .riiept-N':'() .
.··1\ S~.(x) ·. _Ntunb~rof~;.'_~.l~'R.~ 1ttar~~
0
x_:.
:::f~jt~~;°i'.4~; ~=I. ~.;=t ~OA
i46; 0~,f 4:6·. .
·,: : Step 1:- Ranl:thednt~ f1~11;.s~1allest t~ l~r~e~t , . StepJ:-Smce ~=OA.140<0.8187, then aci::eptN,;;O · ·
: R, ~ R2 s..'..... RN - - ·- SleJ> I:, Set n=Q; P= I · . . . ..
~tep 2:~ Compute _,.

.·...,~s;;~;.;~;~0~1*:~:,":•;•t!~~:i~~:fft~/~e~~e
c :

i::_ ,. ·· .. · . ·· ~j••.:.·:-~:-J)·._::~~:. !:._--~·-'_-.::·..,··~ ·-/~-l:,.il:Z::?.:!. :~~~:·-,:.~

2
-
-r-··' .12 - .
· ..
.
_ -- -
.
. ; - ' - - •- ----
--- - ----· -- -- --- -
• •-"
---

. -- . . --- .

- - ---- -- ~ -- ··:,:;J.,,,:_ . ···r·:-~'•,l,"bf · __

 VIII Se,m,, (CSE(ISf)
Step 3:- Since 1'=0.8313 ?.c·• ihcn reject return to step _2 with 11=2
I
Step 2:- R)=0.8004, P=R,, Rl=0.6654 =0.6654
•
E(x.):::-
'A,
I
Step 3: Since P=0 6654<0 8187 then ncccpt N=2
n Rn +I p Accept / Reject Res1:!t So_!_ is the mean imcr itrrival time
0 0.4357 0A35i Accept NcoO "-
() ·o.4146 0.4146 -- A\iCCpt N-0 • The goal here is to develop a procedure for generaiin1fvafues x,, xv x that have ·-
0 0.8353 0.8353 Reject : an cxpopcntial distribulion. · · 1· ·

I 0.9952 0.8313 Reject · • Tlw inverse trnnsform tcclinique is used for any distribulio[I bui ii is 1~9st useful
I . wh~li cdf, f(x) is _of a form so simple that irs inverse f·•, can be comp.ured easily.,
0.8004 . 0.6654.' Accept N=2
• Step b}: step p'roccdurc ~or inverse transform technique. ·. ·_ . . : -
•.
OR \ Sk_p' _I:- Com put~ the cclr of the desired random. variable X. (or the e'xponential
distribution, the cdf is F(x) = 1-e·'-'. x?.0. . · ··
6.ll, . Wh.ir :IJ'C 'pseudo ;·amloni' 1i111~bcrs? Wh.1h1rj th.c. problcni tl ..:,t occm:,Wliilc .
. gcncrntitig p;cnd~ 'n)m\0111 11mi1bc1i '! : ... .·. ; . . · · • :' : . . (06 M:1rk11)
0
Step 2:- Ser F(x) = R 011 the ·range of xfor the ~xponentfal distribution, it becomes
,., Ans. Pscu;io im;ans i'alse;•so lal,se rlll'1do111 munb~rs;u'c bcu1ll_ge11~rat~d. ,. 1-e:'·'=R'on the range :,;~0, Xis-a randoi,n variablc,'So J-e-h is also,i1randonlvariable
· called R. R has a .unifonrt distribution over the interval (0, I).. · · · ·: · · . • :·
Whilt gencr;1ti11g p~c11d? randoip m1111bcis, .cc1,rai,11 proble1~s :or errors can _oc~ur. .
. Step 3:~ Solve· the equation F(x)= R forx in 1em1s of R.
These crrorsfroni ideal randomness are rcl~ted to t\tc prope111es of randon1-11umbcrs. I - e·" = R . . . . . .. ' ·'' .. . '•
. · Err~rs in~liitlc thc'. folhhvihg . : . . .: f. . , . L\ . .
_I. Tljr; gene_~~tc_d: rniido1l1 _nu~,b~is iriI~\1t \t?t'b'~.~n,i~ol'iiily distrib(t~ed. _ , ·· ·. e·1·• =l.;...R ., .; ~.: .' .
2. Tlic ••c11ctnted nuinb9rsm1ght be d1se:rete value4 111stcad.of ~011t111uous valued, -.h:=ln(I-~)
3. 11;e
~1eaii :oi·'viiri~1i,:c"ofifte g~ncrritecl 1iii1i1l:i'e,:s .ii,ighl b~:foq high or ,too._low. . . ,.,. (:'. ; ; . ·.. .·· ·.: . : ..:: . . .';, ,; ,,
· - . • :• .
'-4.'Tiie're might be dejienden~e. , . .. . , . · .i ' ,·,:, .··. : ,, , . ;·: .. · x: ,;,--':-lii(l,:.R)➔ W 'israndom
(a)'Al;tocorrela_\ion bct1veeil lllli\1bers.: : . , . . . . .. . . ·, . ,; ·"':; -•:,',< i ) •. , ,.' • .• ./ • • • ,' ·, •• • ' C _, •_. • •
.{b) St1ccessi,•e(yhi-,:1l\er or.lo,~cr than adjacent htullOCl.'S.•; ·.· '> ' ' ! . : ..., ! :· .··· '.'_:( :Variate.generator for the exponerifial oistribution in general equation_! J~ Witt.en.as
(c)Sevcral nu111 bers above the mean or foUo~ed by several m1mbcrs below the mean.' _:: . ;·x=f•l(R) Generati,ig 'a 'sctjuef!Ce ofvalues'i s'dorie_through'.Step.4:~' ,_ / .. : . .- .'
·step 4~~ Ge1ieratii1g\111ii'9rm .randdil) ,numbers ·Rl: .R;, Ri lnid ,comp'ute.ih'.e desired
6. ·11. ·Explain. im;cr~c tr.rnsfo;tn tcdrni~1'ic'Q,fp';odiid11g 'raiuloinvifrhii~for:'
;t,, :·:;.:~~~~;~:.;·::,~~~\1~~1 ~~;~:.t~;;\~i;:~~~;;;::;·.}::':: ,·s;:;~1;;,~/ ,,•,f· · · • ' .
:Ans,fi)iR~po11c!lti.1I ,l\istri~uliqn ·, . ,.
1
·. ·· ··
·C . ,; '
1
.
:~~l;'1tfi1Itf'/ 'O:;<
forexpoi1ei,iialca5:e, f" 1
:i::,:· --,,t c;-,_,----
(R) =..'.-:In (I ~ R)~.:...:. _....
. · : The e~1>on~ntial clistri_bt1tion ~a.s pelf

' i_.-.:·r\~y~{~e~~~-;,_ •::~:-~:_:.> . •,.,. ::h;~~ti;;/1)s.o/:(. · :'~i::::'.'-~:\:·.;,~~\ -~-:-- ..

?i~ ~fJli{1:·; R;)~·<2_)'._ ··::: : _ _ , ,. . .. _ . ,. . .
. The expo1\~;1tbl .ciistributi~nhas _
cdt
~. . For i~ 1\ 2, 3: .:_ ._·:. o_ne siniplificatiqn:th_atis l1S~ !IY'1ri' ~qu~tioii'(2)_is 'to rcpfai:~..

I:4:(RJ. _-_.-·_: :~":..·-·_._- --._--•·-·-·-·:,)•--·-

_\ '
~ --r(x)=f f{t)df ·
,-: : ··- -_.,.:: .-.. .

Tl{is alfornativ~ isjll~!ifi~d by die feetll11it boih 'R/and I~ Ri areµnifo'rm!Y: <l~stributed·: .

on (0, If. ' .·. •·· · .· . ··; ' ·
> ·.. · l · · · : ·. · · ·
. if) Unifonii distrib~liQri · .\ ' ·. , .~ / · ::/ _ .. _. ,, ,, ,.,_• ,,,:· ,:.
. Consider a fall(\Oriivrii'ialilc Xthilt is"imifom1I distrib'uted . ;itlie iii
-- - --- -- --- l
_,..... __. : _-::- --" '
.,_ __ ________ __ ___

- - - - ----- ---~ __ _,_ ___ ,_..:_ -. -~-~- --- -~----.;.:.- _...._- -.~- -
·;~-~ 7'•.:::··:: :--; ~- ~~- -_,_. .:::?~:. -~_-.;::~~.:.~ -~~-.:~- : - -·.:·~--~~ :~· :__ ~-- . ( :~~:;_~~~:_·r_\- :_~~-~-,.~:-_:i~~:."'"~--t:-=-_·.---.--~ _': ;; _.- ·- _: __ , ,' ,. . t.:: _.
 VIII Sem,, (CSE/ISf)
Ster> I:- Find the cdf F(x) i.e.,
2. l~~bel the ho!·izon~al mds I~ conform lo tlie i111crvals selected
J, I· md lhc frcq11c11c1cs for e:ich cl,1.\.1 inlcrval. . .'
F( x) =I~ b-11
~·n , a; : : 1,
.
4. Lnbcl :hi.! vcrtic:il ;1xl ;0 ri1;-i1 iltc t 0 I I
5 f'I I Iii 1-
1, 1

.. · .. · ·
• o e rcquc11c1cs on l 11c scrt ical axis.
·
a ocwrrcnc.:cs can be ;iloltcd for each inlerval
- ·
. I, . ,_-5, b J, Sclccfi11g the disrribution .. .
Afterconslructing a 1_1is1ogrnm a 5111001 1, ~urvc·ra~s,·n,;_111 ro --1 · ·.d . , '
Step 2:- Set . ,. " ug 11111 points ,ram t 11c
upper part a f the rectangle 1s drawn This curvt';is c•llccl 111 Ii .- .
D d· · · ." c req1u:11 cy curye;
F(x)= Ri.e., x':-II = R. . ep~n ing .on tl1c sltape of the curve, appropriate guess. IQ lhc distriburion is made.
· -b-a ·
Step 3:- Get
x'=r-· R) 1
·(

. ..
''i.< :=>; R.·,. ·,: :. .. •

·.•.· x-a=R(b-a)':
'f•.-'·
... ,.;:
,
. , i ·!
•
; . - -1
• l
./
.Ix ~a+ ~(b-a)j
~~'rrorn:,'_ :,_;,; t=i"
\Vhich is the iandom variate g~ncrato·r for tl(a, b]
. . Module~ 4
.. -·~
7; n; Expl;tin the dilferci1t steps in the <lcvclopmcnt of u 11s~fo.l model'of inp,ut data?
,: . . -. ··- - ,;--- - - -_. . , ·1;•··: I•::· -'-''_', ;/·'. ·\·.·cioM~~,i
·::,\is::: r;· iiat:(~611cc1io1i'. '•'' 'i •'-"' · ... · . . -",
• S~ggestfo11s:1ugl{t-·CnlrnOcif~11d ·faciHtate·dnia·.co.llec·t!on.. . · ~ _.. ~ ... ~ .•
.-:wwsiiful -expemliturc ot ti,;1e is in plai1111ng this could beg:ii1 by. pmctice or rr:eH:

,~'#~~;;:,;j~~~~~•±'~.~~?2§~:'.,fE~\~." ~ c,, "

1

obse'rving'sessioi1. Try to collc~t data wi)ile pre-observing 5 ,: : ., ,.,;;:.:, . · . :f i /:

c:::===~==':=::ii■Elif,vt:o::a,uiiyseihe::.data. 3s.Ji1c,Y. arc_befng _collecJ~dcdn:cko1;tt-whether;ihec<lata~..:.;';
- being coll.cc:e<l'ai'e.adeq1i°a:e 10· provi.de the.,distributions .needed. ll{i11put fo the -
1
. . : . ~-11;ufoi'io11 -... - ·:· . : : ·-. . '· ,.,· ·,,,,;: -. / .'. :u:·,; :: ·,,..:-, .:/,·,,...,-:,;.. , _;,, -~. . .
, , :.i:~. ,Po1son:a ~umbetof_independent \:vents thai_occur in_a fi~ed amoun.t ofome:
~ .Try t~ combin~!i~mogei1eo(;s drita sel;, cli~ck d~ti foi· hom~~e,ie(ty iri :iuc_~~s!,y~ · • -..-~xp?ncnh_al:-_,J\mc bch~een i1_1dcpendeni'perio<ls - ; !';" ..
tinie periods an ·~ud11g the same tim,e period on succ..:s?ive·d~y's) .•:' ::/ ; _', .>,c :-, . ._ ._ • Normal:~ Some,of component processes• ; ~ · -:.- ·· _ , .- .. ·· ·
• _[3e a\vare of the possibility of data censoring iii \yhich _-a 51ua1itiiy of i11tecest is riot 1
. . • ~iscrcle lcouiirnious uniform:~ Cori1pltite1Ji~~rtaintycln bfl~:ed ~h ~}e·thcre ..

- ~~ ~~(i~~n)1v,o
··c-::• .:~~~dr;::odv~! '.~J:~(:~:.~6ie ira're!a(101isl1ip·
1
var;ri~;~~ ~--. . - -.-
, - . • Consider the possibi(ity that a sequ'ei1cG ·o( obsc,;1aiions . t(1ai_. appeilr'-.to.
.-. -- : indepe11de11tactuall) liasautocorrelatio1i . . __ . _.:. .. _. ~ i·
· e · Auto corrcl~tion'can exist in successive tin11:: periods orfqr SLJCC~ssiveci1storhers; •,
.>-' ... .:z.~i~:g:t::,:,:tt~t·:ttt.:7'T'.t~i·i" .·.
.·· • . n'ct.1; =: 'An ,ixt~in1ely ilbih[e·: di~iributioo ·. llS~il; t~-~rii.~dlbound~i°r1ndoni"T
vaiiables. ·. . .' · : .: i · · ··- ' · · ·· ·1 •
1 1
!,:~,~-~~~:rc;;;:t::~;':~ed~\ t:i~~:i:~);:~~;:~:: :is;rib;,;ip;tfo;lo~ved ·; ;,;~)a~~;;oh;~·-·b.e//\ ;4.'Para~idcr estinfiiti6il : ,,_,._ :·.:,: · :·· ·; . · .- ·' ·. •...
. _· · '/ . idel1ti(led. Histogr.1m ·is used fortliis purpose, . . ,.,L;•c . " io
' On~y thecfistrib1itioJ1:is ide1itifi~d. /he !pa~hi-eter are be. identtiied ~Qdesti;niie/·•
. 'C =~; . :_ Hisiogi-am p1·o~cii~rc . . .. -· ~Tl1e ~aramei~rs C?ll b_c eliniin~ted tiy using srunple 'me~s and va~i~nce'd~110(~ by

:.~~3:E-:?•~•••• •., .•~k • - ~ -- •

---- - --r:"· \ - •. . -

- - - .__-----------..:'....-....- --
,- --- ~ - - -- - --~--- · ....
- - - - ----- -- - - . - ..
 VIII Se-n11 (C SE(ISf)

~ and S1 0.1397 IJ .9 -5 .9 2.50

7 U.084 8.46 . -1.46 0.25 I
-
[ ~~
L. -
1•! 1\
( unfroup~d tfolr.) 5, 35 0.044 4A
=< ( .. . ' 5· 40 (!,0200 .
li/~;, 2. tJ
X
·,:.-\ ,
(groupcddata) .3 .:. 27 0.0080 O.S-- 9.51 · I 1.062
2
10 . 30 0.0029 OJ -.
· 1~x/-nx
11-[
l
L.
i•I
( ungroupcci data} ·
II.
· 100
II
. 3µ4
0.00097 0.09
100
-
27.68
S =
± ·, ;_,l 2

f;x:-iix .. ·(grm;peddata) x2 L(o; -E;} '.:.21.68

i•I 11-I
. E; ... . .
2
X ->x 2_a,k.-'- S.:.l ·
Dist.ribi1ti.011 Pnr:unefor · Suggested ·cstiniator
27;68~3.64" -
~oison
. x=x :.ilcject Hypothesii (Ho)
.Expotcntial-:: • I · OR
' . . A_== .(:.
X 8. n: . Briefly
·' :
c,;pl:iin .C()nfidcncc
. . .
fi1tcl'~11[
'
cstlm:itl~~- (10 !\larks)·
Ans.- ·
ri,o
• To tinderstand confidenc~· int~rvlils, ir is importnnno Understnrid tfie' d_iffeielice .
. -~~ ·.. { .. .... - ·- · ;.
;·. . _betweenmeaslireoferi'o_r;aridmeasiir~ofrisk. · . .• . \,' T-'>· .
Nonrinl. 'i_ µ, er ·• _One way to inake 1lhe tliffere~ce clearjs fo contrnst-n confidence interval with iJ ·. ..·: : ·
11=x· .• .·:·~~crlfoti6ninterval.'· . , · ., · .• .:·1 - ·' . •. . ...._-_·-: . .-,.·,. • .. :. · · :._ ... ·_ · • ·.
· 02 =S2 ·: . ; • Both ccmfidence and prediction intervais artibased on:the p~mis~ th~i~·ed~i~--
..• being prodticedhjthe sirnul;tt1on is represented well by a.probabilityniadel: . ·.
7• .b.. Apply cl1Hqu;i1·~ ~oot_l(ICSS _of fit test to poison i1ssumption ,vith a=3.64, d:ita Suppose thM 1iiodlis the normal distribution with mean 0 aiid:vnriance cr2· lioth .. _., ,:...
_. ·... ~ · .'. u~kno¼-~·. :,_:: ·•.,~ .. ," .. .__:_- -~~- . ..:- _··.,_, ___ ~-·, ·_·_-.· ~·•·' ':·_·- .- . .·· . _-•_<
· : - c -..~ . ~,-: : ~n~:~ ~:c~t;?:~r
· : · · ·:.i"· ·:,,sitc=IOO;io6scrvcd 'f1'ccjifcilcj iS'Oi: :12.-10°19·.1710 8 7 5·5 3 3 1 tal<c level of
~ ,i;! -~~'.f~~ll:'·:fl~-•~;~o/~~i-~ ~:~~,;~luc~ hoiil~(~::;;:1:t f
.:·
,: ~. . :::;:'.j o-'leF.1'-lie=Th.~cyc!e"fime';furpmtr]irodaced u1nhe i1lrteJWcnt1_oq _or the .
· simulation:. ·. ·-~ .!- · · · .. : > ·i ' ·
.·.,(;IS, ' .'; ::-
. ·:. ,,, . · . i.,i• ::
'' ,;;.•-·
·•:J~ ;~:~:·:;~~t\~l{tt~~~;~a!ica(e~pf
1
ta~\on ·ofY~. qi_s_: th;.:ija~._,n.
a1d ~w~riat'.~~-,
:_ ·:;·1 . · • lfgoalisio estimatc 0 . ., , , . . . .. . . · :: -~-
:lfwe n~e pl~nni~g tbbe i~ busin~ss' fo~ Ji)~g ti~~..prodit~irig pans d~y~'ft¢r cfay,"ihen .. ·"" •.

. 0 is n rdevant param~i~r, becatise jt is the ·1ongr\lrl meal) da_ ily ~ycl~ time;: . .. '
- ..-.
•·-.• le
. \ ' .
· •. :.··, :• ' Acci"nfidence intervalisn mensureofthecrrorlet .. ' ' . ,,·.·· ' ---~ ---. -:.
··. :::s'·f ~:~1:tr\~t.y . ·· -·
. bi:_ the sain.ple v~~:irtnce aii~oss-the R·replicatioris.·•. ~ · ·: ·i ·

·2 19 : 38 ·. ' o_. 1739 . t7J6 I.Gs . .. ~. ·-·

~ ; . ~ ..
: : .. . . . : . . . . /·

- - ---- --rn ._ . ·- :_:

- - -- -· ·- - -
.. .
 VIII Se1111 (CSE(IS[)
• The·· usual conliclcnce interval. which assumes the Y, m: norn1nlly clistrilrntcd, is Moclulc - 5
- .s
Y ... -:::ta/2. R-1 JR. 9. n. Explni11 the rcplicnllo11 ri1cthucl fur slc:idy 5lnlc simul:11ion,
Ans. Replication method for steady stale sim11latio11
(10 ..Mnrk.s)

Where toJ2, R-1 is :he qun11tile u:·thc I distriG;:tion with R- f degrees of frccdo,n tlrni • If .initialization bia~ in th; poin1 cstim;,:or has been reduced to a negligible
cuts off a/2 of the :rrea of each !nil. . . . · level, then the m~thod of independent replications c~n be used to estin,~ie point ~
• A prediction interval is designed to be.wide enou~h lo contni~i the actual average. ·estimator vririabilily nnd to construct a confidence interval. · · · '· '· ' · ··• · ·
cycle time on any pnrticulnr dny witl1 .high probability. . · ,. • The basic ide~ is simple make R rcpljcatiii!1; initializing ai1d deleting'from each ·
. • A prediction inl\:rval is a me11sure of risk a confidence· interval is n 1m,asi1re of :· · one tlie same ,vay,. · ·····;- ·
. error, • If significant" bias r~inarks in· the point estimation and -large nilmber·of rcJ~lication .
: .are used to r<;duce poi9t estimator ~ariabilily, the ·resultfng i:oiifide'iice: ihterval
-
Y ... ±ta/2, R-1 S
..
.R
• The nonna! - theory prediction interval is

.
I+-
R
. - . c~n ..bemisleading.... · . . · _. ..· ..· ;··,··; ·:\;.
. • This happens because bias is not affected by the number ·of replicatiotiir(R), it is · .·..
> .
. , .. affected only by dchili'1& more data l'/r \,IXtending the leqgtli qf e;:ic_h:l}I,~;( ii ·'. · .. · :
The icngth of this h1terv.ill will.not go of Ons R ii1~renses.-h1_the iimh it becomes ··
·. ,• Tlll!S, increl\Si11g th~ i11\mbcr o( replications (R) could produce shorte,::coi'ifiderici: _.
P~f:t,~\~(a ~;j~t1/~6:rt·: .·
~±Za~29' . . :. ·. : . . . . , .. . .· ;· ·
to rcflccni11: foe( (iiat, 110 matter.how lllllCh we simu~afo, our ~.aily:average cycle time· ; . . ··.t;~e;Jr,tih~~~--i~~~ ;:~~~~!~~t~,e,ef~re:.1:1s 1,.f
still varies.· · • 1· · · · · •• · · · · · .--< ·
. . •·· . . . ,• lf~he sin.1ulatio11 m1Myst .decides L<i .delete t observatioils ,of th( 10~·1 of.'n
. 8, b, Pl'cs'crilic·Qu:iniilcs in output :tn.~lysis for (crmin:iting simulliiions. (06 :1\11.:irks), . ,; · . , obs~rva\i?llS in a re.p(jcatitJilS thenti1e point tstimator OJ~ is.Y.:,.(1(4f '.~;: .
'An~. · . ·. . · . . _.: .· . · · ... . . · · ·., .· . , ,{/ •. The bl\sic rawoutpu( data, '{y,, r=l....R,"j=l, .. n} .. ... · · ·. :.- -. · ·
• Ttj:presc!nt·the interval estimator: for quailtities,it is.helpful.to rcyiew.the interval:. .. • Eii~.h Y,; is derive.d in 01ie oftlte foHowing ways ·: · . ..,\d, -~ /: .
. estimator _(~r ~ mcanln the spetinl,cnse wh_enthe mean _represents_aproportion:'.) Case 1:- y~ is an individual ob~ervation from .within.replication r, for-ek.1!~ple. Y,1, •
. , ,orprobabil11y.p,· .. ... : :.. .- . . ;._..• . . . ,:,·,. ••:·.,.·, , ....:·;. : .·. , . ..
0
.-.. :.-,, • cc:,uld be the delay of custonier iu a queue fr the response .time to jobj i,~ ~:job shop. :

.·•·•··•· ·•·,:;,; ~T,~

.·• • ··when tl;c n;m;b~r.of in~ep~rid~·nt i·cplicitti~'1is Y,:. ,:... vRi~large enougi1 ti1~t tal2i \., : Case '2:- Y,i is a batch mean fr~111 ·withi11 replication r of nu111li~r ·of·9iscrete time ·

~
ob.serv.at1ous; '.,._ . .. ' .. . .. ... . . . : . . . : . .• ._- . . : _. ?,.::·:= . • .
. Case 3:- yrj 15. a-b~!ch m~an pf a cpntinuous timipi·ocess_over tiri)e.interyaljr, ' ,': ·
ioim:,l~~,prob,bilizy ~••.o~rn ~,,re,,,. , · · •'t

-)~;1~:J}~~~,:~?;;~:i:~:.~:~~l~,~- .•.;:,·
. : :, • When using .the replication ·method; each (eplic.·it\on, is '. regardiXl:.i{11~sii_1gl~.

·: ·•When, P_is the sa,nplc propo1tion: . . . . .. . . . . . ., .

:. :· • ..The; {jurtntile_~. es_timiition proble111,isjthe i.nve~~~ for the p~obability,: estjrnati<>.ni
. . . pi·oblemi find'O stich th~t p,: {Y $ 0 f,;;;P,.Tlitis to cst.11'nate the P. quantile.we.find =
,tli't!. value Osuch th~t lOOo/oof the data iti a h(stogrn~ ofY is to the "iefiof e.- .··:
.• E;,;lending this i~!c.{.im appio~imatci ( 1-a) I 00%. Con~dence interval· for e·can initial c01iditions (1), the repiicatiort averages. , . . . . . . . . . :-.,.;{

,·.;t.)(h~,~7~ijt~~t" ,:.,.ram, )~fiots of

be obt~ji\iilli)'(in~ing two'yalues; Ot thntcufs bf I op pt o/o die histdgrnrri_ and '
... •.·• •·. . .. . ...• ' .,
,Yi:(n,ci)}.. ., ..;y~.(n.cl) . ·

:·:rm~~~i=~[y,.(!t;: ~
-·. ·. ·. · ,· ...: · ··

fr~~/~i:~~~~:~:;ilt~~i:;~:i£~~i~:1ii~~i~i~~;;~:i~i~~~i'.~~ - :. ' :
,·:· ./)_,·:.. }":.

~
Pt'=P ~ Zct/2 . - ·~ :·:~. ·.· ·: ·
·. .•..:·:. :-.:.:~~/;~!~' J , :· · :
Ll.··.:· ,::·' ~11.d n,d) _-J • ·,: :!: •:>: ,- · · ;~ :/';)(;};( ····,,
· . Pn~P+Za./_2 ~ ; 1
··. .. ·, • j;~·bvcrnlr ~~i~t est~n;;toi,\s also giJ~'.l by ' '-.::'.; . ' .,; ,:,; _,.[,;;:,.:,;;,;
· y... (n;dh-IY,-(n,d) ...· ' · ·
! ; - ~· · . .. . R:,.,.· . ..- J ..
,: .-, _.-: ~-::· :
.

......- - ~_-_.r1~-.~.,-.-.-.-,.
· . ~ : ~ , -~· C. . . . . . '.

.•~
..,-.-:---,-,---~~-~-+1· ~ 'cc--'--.-'-'.
'

... ·-·.-..-
•· .•.

io ·- ~ - ~ · . ·.· . . . - ·. - ~~
.s...:.. -~ -
- r.· - · , · . . i.~ . . ·, z:{
 VIII·Sem, (CSE/ISE)

Thus, il follows that

E[y . .
(n,ct)]=9n,d
also .if d and n are chosen sulEcicntl)' large, 1h,,:1 o'n, ·d ::::O, :111d y... (n,d) is ;in Calibration & vi1lidation Conceptual vlllid:uion
appr;x_i1::atcly 1111Diascd estlm;itcr c:O. The b:;is i11 y.. (1:,d) is On!d -0. ·
Conceptual model '
9. · b. Explain output :11111lysis for stc:nly stnlc simul:11io11. . , (06 Murks) :i) Asst1111ptio115 on system co~1ponents.
Ans. Consider n single run of n sin1 til.nlion model whose purpose is to estimQte n steady 2) Structural assumption
state or lone nm characteristic of the system. Suppose that tlw single· 11111 pro_duces 3) Data assuinption ·
observ~tions y1, Y:····• which gc1iernting are samples of an nutocorrc!ated time series . . . 4) Input paramcle~s
The s1~1dy state nwasure o.fperformnnce, 9 is defined by •
/' n . .
8:=lim, ➔ oo-LY; · Verilicatio'n
. . . . n~ . . . . .
Operationa(:incidel .
With probability I, where the 'valu'c of 0 is independent of the initial comHtioiis.
For'example ,ify; ,;•a,s the tin)e custom~r.spenr taking to an operator, th·e Owould be • 'rhe second step (n m~dei buil1li11g is· th~ consir~~t.ion. 6(a ~drt~e~i~a.i..h1~el,
the fong-run average time a customer Spends talking to an operafor and b~causc 9 is of
·, , :. \1'.hicl.1 incl11de_s;collection assumption~ on ii ~stem colrtpol)_enJs, s_trpct,ute of 8
. defii1ed as limit, it is independe11t to the call confers conditions at· ti1i:}e 0. Siniilarly : . : . sys\em, i/p, parnin_ele_rS,,':~!')ta;assm~P,l!~n et~·::.'- : . ·,,:c : : :- ;· ,: .', .. :: ;;: ; . ,
the stendy state performmice·for n contiriuous tini~ 0\llpul measure {y (t), ~OJ ; such • The third step is 'the tra,ilslation o(the concepiual model int9. oP,~raii~~l:TTtodel .. .
' a~ thb 11uinber of ~U~IO~li:;. in the call centers· hold,9uei1~ is d~fin~il as ' ' •,· ' . The model builder has to return to each of these steps. many times while building, ·
1 verifyir1g and _validating the tnodel.. : · ·. . . · : · -~· •· . : . ·
~=limT~~~Jy(t)dt
: . ,. · .· , Tt· u . · ·
. < is
' ' Vcri{ication:~ The ptirpose· of verification to, ensure that !he concep!iiai modei
is. reflectc_d accu.rat~·ly in tlie .. computerize<I representation,·some suggestioiis'in- tin,
·with probabili\y !',- i . .. . . . . .. . . . ., · verifii~tio1i process;are/ : -· . . · _. . · ,. · _ ·~ · . -
. -'!he'saniple'siz6'n(01· ,:E) is_a desigi1 choke, .it is"!H'.11 inherently deterfuined. by tlJe··· ; ' .,.• 'Jlave . the_coiii,;({i~riied 'repi:esenlation :checked 'by _.someone ·- ~th~ 'ihan': iis• - .. '
nature of the problem. The siqrnl_ation analysl\vill choose.simulation run lengtli wi_th·:\ developei:. · ·
. se~ernl consideration in ri1 ind. . . . . .. . .. . . ·. . . .' . • Natneaflciw'a i~gramottheprocess. . . . . · .' ·. .··.:t . . .
··· I, Ariy .bias fa the point.estimator that 'is due.to a11ificial or arbitrary conditions, . .e Close}y_ ~xami1~e the model outp1it fo~ reasonableness ~~d~t a v~ri~ty ofinp;1is. .

T-"~-.,--~~~,~~:: : ~·: w~~~;. ;,~;~ .~--_-, ••-_._.·.•--

, . . · · · 2. The desired prccisio1i'ofthe.point esiiii1ator, as nieastrred by th\i.standard error or • , Print the inpi1t(ia·rn1i1eiers~;t:the end of si_m_u_ll!tion ofachieve that the ilp,R~rilmeter
< trc ,de rrot ch,111gea:- . " ', ' ' . . '.'
.. •. Make the cofoputerized represe\it_aiion as.seJfdociimentary po~sible. . ·. • :, . .
·:- • . If the cqmpp!ediea -represe11taiion is animaied verify ihat what is':seeh .in.the .'
. _animation .imitates the rictua:1 system. . .. : , . ' - .
as
'

.i · •·• ~~r:•::2_·;:;:;::•i~g::2:::;d;:?t:::_!'::•:::t:t::·:r,:••.~:~ . · • Have agr~phical reptese11tation ofihe model. ..

. • It sin1i:ilifies the task of model 1111dersia11dingtrace the model:- . · · · ... · . ,. . . ..
<

. ; . . ' . · . interactions among it. vririoi1s components and collecting.data on its behaviour .' V.,lidation :~verificilti<?i) and validation are conducted simultaneoµsly _by Hie model :. . .
-·[l.-_: . aiso, persons fa~1iliar with system or sub'.:systcm· should bl;) 'questioned:10 ~ake· validation isuyernl I process of comparing ihe'moclel i111d its be1t~viqi.ido real $yster\i: :---"":.~
~ . . . ·-advai1fage, thdr special knowledge. ;· :-•..:__.~ -. .. ·. . : . .· . ·.· . · ... : . and· its b_ch_aviour. : : ' . . . .: , . . . _ · · .· · . · .: . . : >:~:·:.."·:·-:-_:-: ·
ll:. ..· For example op(:i-ators; ~uperviso~s; t~chi1it(at1s' etc,~re also ·questioned to gairt more ",Caljb1:atio1lfs,tf1eileiritive·procl:ss of ~omparir1g the nl?~el aiM.its-behavioVr.:to reii(' -~ - ::·
f. · ·. knciwledge·alioutthe system. As model development proceeqs new questions !11.ay · . system niakil')g ' adj°1isiment._to tiie model; comp;iring · the 'revised .tncidel f6· reality'' .' :-· .
~ c !' . ' ' 'arise n.nd· (nodeldciielopers \nay have Id returrt-io tnis step,'.·:° . ' ,., ' . . . . •~ ttk_ing_fldd~tio.nn_lad~ustl~en.t com[)riring 3gain a~d agajn. · · .·~ !..~ .._ • ~~~~ ·- ,.. ..
- . ' : . . . . 1

"i ·. ',• ... ..·, ·_·. · - · ·- ~

': ' ,. . . • ,• - -
--- , . . -- : . · __ · -- . ·-. ·· .. ·.· ·::·.
i~~·-:.
,, : :_ ~
_~22 -.- · ..: ·:=:~
-- --- - - ~ ---- -- - - --- -- . ..· _: ..... ---. --
r . - - r--;

, .,_ - ~ ._,; ~:. •

.· I
,_ , • ·· • .
'
~ '.• •• :r• •~ . .-: ,•.~•:•.~ . : : =--::: : ___ r- . · :....· - :..·· .:, ,.c- . ~
: .-
• · ~- -·· - ·· -~ ---- - ►
 VIII Sew (CSE(IS'E)
fO. b.Whi~h arc the common suggestions can be given for use in Ilic verification Eighth Scm~slcr -8.E, Degree Examination,
· process. (Oll l\forks) .cues·- Model Question Paper - 2
Ans. J. Have the · opaalional modci .:h\!cked by someone other' than its developer,
SYSTEM MODELING _AND SIMULATION
prefcrnb!y a11 expert :n the s: inula:ion software bci::g used, .
Time: 3 hrs . Max. Marks: 80
i. Make a flow diagrnm that includes each logically possible acti~n a system .can take
~ Note : A11.1wer 1111y _Fl Vt:jiiu°1J,,e>'li1111.,; .,l!!e_cti11g ON£fill/iflmllim fr~111 eaclt 111~:d;t/e. J
when an event occurs and follow the model _logic for.each action for each event type: .
J, Closely examine the niodeltbutpul for reasonableness uii'de~ ·avariety of settings
of the input parameiers. . . . ·· . .
Modulc-1
4. Have lhe operationnl model pr_ i::t the input parnmekrs at th~ end·of the sir;u;lation, . I. a. List .:111y live circ11111st:11iccs, when the simulation is.the appropriate tool aiul
· to be sure 1hat these parameter values have not been changed inadvertently...' · when it is not. _ . . . ..·. . ·· . , . · ·· . . .. , ·. . (08'. Marks)
5. Make the·operational model as sdf documei1ting as possible.·:. . · Ans •. When the sim_ulation is the appropriate tool . :, , . . · . · ··: : . : "<;",' .·' · ·
6. ·If the operational 1i1odel ·is animated, verif)'. that ·what ·is s~en in the anin1at_ed .· l.·Si,mulat)on ennble the study of uricl experirt1e1\tatio11 with the inte;iial inte~~i:tfo~s .
imitates the actual system. . . · ·, · . · . . ·· . ofa ·ccmplex system or of a sub systenrwithi~ a:c<wplex -system.,i, . ',· . .
7. ihe interactive run coritroller (!RC).or ·1ebugger is an essential co~p~nent of · 2. 1,formational, 01·ga11ii.ational arid c11viron.me1_11aCchanges .can ·be simulated a11d
suc~cssfol siniulation n,odcl building.. .. . · · · . :0 . • . ·· . . · the effect ofthese alterations.on the modefs behaviour can be obs'er.ed.· .· ' . ·
· 8:
Gcaphic.1I .iii!t:rfaces are recoiiiiniirided for accomplishing vt~ificatio1; · and . . j , T)ie knowledge gnirt~d in designing a simulatio~ model of ir~at -~ahfe ;owllrd
suggestirig improvement in the system m;d~r in~estigaiion: . . . . . . . . . . .
· · validation, The graphical representation of tl1e :-i10_ del"is_essent_ially· a fcii'm of self
· doclih12i1tafion.- ':· . . . ·' '
'· • ,,1 • •'
_- . · .• · ' '' . ,.: \t .'.· ·_,_·_,_·. . . 4·, Anin'rnt1oi1s, shows a:_ sysiem _in sinnilated operation so i!tat ilie pia,i 'cail be
visualized. · · .· · _. · ·, • • · . . ·- . : · . . .
5. The modern syster\1 is so co.iiplex that the interaction~ can be tre~;~d o~ly ~hrough
simulation. • .· · '· · · ·. · ' ,.
\Vhcu tile sirn11I:itio11 )s 116( appropi;iriic, . •" , ' -- .
·: I <Wlien;the pr9bieM CllU :be sol_ved usihg cominofi~ ;enSC'i .,;.,
·<;,,:::.-L< :•.
· .i .,r:•.• 2. Whe1i'the problem can be solvecl. aiialytically. ·
:3. Whe1t it is ea,sier to pe1foi·n\ direct experiments,
. 4. Wlte1dhe simtflAtio_il costs exceed ihe savi1i11s:-- . . ... , ..
. . ). WhCp~l'lle resqLri:ces Or titne at;e ~otiaVaitab1:;· .· ·:.·-·--~••"•
:~:-~i~~ .~o.~~p~ufc"~¥i~~;ts~iipp~~~rc~~c~rfoifc-a-u-y~i#lfp:~~ic~1,1~,;·~al(~---_·
d;,I

·sc ' '·=-=--~ . ,- ~_. , ····:-'· ' '.'.·. : ... ·. , . •:·~·_

;:. ~~ ~ ~ : : : : : ' . =~ ~ ~ '-7,,C C- .

· ·.. '\!ho:takes _call~ ~IHI _try to a~.s~vcr,tjii"csti<iris and solv~ computcr 'pr9uleq'is.·Thc: -· - .... .
: t.imc bct_wc1m c:,11s ranges from 'Lfo '4 minutes with th!} distributio~ -~isli'own in . -. . .
· . •i
. i;ibfo l.LAble:ls..111orc cxpgrif,;ccd :1iHlcai1 pi-oviilc ;Cn'ICC fastci'thhr?Bakc~' . ' .
. )vhich means thnl; -when bo_th arc itlli:, Able takes the call. The distrlbution of·
ihcir service times :ii·c. show~ hitablc
_1.2 _and (;3 respectively. · · .~(08-M~~ilil) .
Taul_~9:1_ntcr Ar~ival time (IAT) Disiribution . .. . .. ,' ,
i.' ,11,. , .
. . IAT , 1' 2 · · 3. " . 4 ··;· .',;. ; · . .
. ·.: ...:;.-~-- . . ·

Probability 0.25 0:40 0.20 ,O, tS ,. \,..-/'

·., . Tablc).2 Scr,•icc time distribu.tion-or Able .
!AT 2. · ~- .· . .4 5' ' :. · •;;
., ···
Pr6babiiity . -0.30 0.28' 0.25; Q.1.7

i .--.-·,.._ _ >.. -.-

:_.::-_.:._·,,-_· ··._:~;__ ~_,_::~~•. -·. -~_::_-.~-~--~~---tJ_~~: ..-;·:~_-' ·~~ .--. _· ·=._··: ..:. _··....:...~ . :· ..._:: _.-_·,·· --:-=: ·-:•f-- . . -:... __ ....-. . ~.,_:.--.~ ·.,·•. ·_
,_ .•.•-·->.-r ·.· • •, .,, :·· · ~ • - -, • ' .!.....'.:..... : . , .
; .·. ·. ~--- ; _._,_.. _; .... · ..-
. -. ~~~f,:~-E.i~~~~-ii~c:.:..":-cc --" ~·: -->~:-:··i::0.i~-= ·= '--'-'
____

___ ~: ____ · __ _ ·. __: ·· --· · - - _.___- ·_ - __· ___ __._. ·~-.. ··.·· _· --- --.:. · .
 VIII Se,m, ( CSE(ISE)
OR .
Table 1.3 Service time disirlbntion of anl<cr· 2• n, .l'ri!pifrc ii simulali 11 t I I, • · • ' ..
IAT 4 s· 6 qucuo sto °
n > e ,mng Ille lime ndvuncc nlgurithm for n single chnitncl
1 cf~~nl will be lit 30 minutes. Jnkr nrrivul time um! service times
lire <>ivcn 11111,ng
Prob,1bili1y OJ S 0.25 0.20 0.20 b
Simul;itc >e ow,
the , bu ·~y 1·•me ~crvcr am1 maximum
. ,. ·,11111 the , r1ucuc length. ·
Rnndom 1ligits fur inter .1rrivnl linrn- 26, 98, 26, 42 _ l,lulc 11 111>1 llfth customer 11cp.trts .. .
Random digits fur Service tlml'- 95, 2 l, 51 1 92, 89, _38
IAT . I I 7 ·5 2 , 4 ' /.
Simulate ihis system fur 6 customers by finding
i) Average waiti_ng time of customers Service time 4 2 4 4 4
ii) Avcrngc service time of Able . (06 !"larks)
Ans.
·mi Averngc service time of Baker 1
' . Ans. - lntcr Arrival d~terminniion · · •. • • • · · ·- • 1, Seria_lNo ' • L~T -·• Arrival Service·-. . .,_. , i ! _j
\;: , :
Clistomct· no.' Rando\n digif · Inter arrival tinie r~;,-;-· ,_. _i_ .....:..~.:......-+'-':..ci1::..:11:,c_
· +_!t:!!im!!:e:...:...- :.:J
'· : , · ·• · - , , ;

f 0 4 ··••. ,
-I _. 2 : . ~~· ·' •·
,(

2 26 :2
98 6 .2 .S ·-
3
4 90. 4. · · 3 s• 4
- 26 .· · 5 1· 11 ·F
6 42
Simul~lion of ABLE - BnkcrS

·. ·niitc · 11nio
·ctiiionlcr ! ~Ct\liC~~ . i.~1'\'iC~ ··~
. uo ~. f:1t06 . "begin."
o_ o: s: .
2 · l .. 2
\' . · .,___;l...._+-
_.;;.i-1-;:......+-G:.:..._;- _+-'-:.:..3.;..·.-4..;....;_'.;_!.-. + ·-...;.;_-4-......:.:.....:..+.-'-~+......:.-'--.+-~'-,·h

~:r-- -</'v~:~;~, :. ;:- j , ._

. · ._. · : ·• " (j
· -, .::;·

-.·., ·,>:--..
. ~-~·... '· .... -• ·.:::-- ·-

-_-_. ii)Averageservice_tinieof/\bfe· --
-'- - :0-: l6-=~:.<.: · c : ~ -• -

. .=-=4mu1s·
4 .--:-:~_:__:_,__-·

- ---- - - - - - ----· - ·· - ---

... ~ •· ·,' .- --. - - ··; - - ...,.- - -r
--- ----- -
·,' ~ ':
 VIII Sem, (CSE(ISE)
2. b. Six dump trucks arc used to 1111111 coril from the cntrnncc of a m~nfl mine to
the rnilroac.l. Each tr.uck is lontkd by one of lwo loaders. After loading, a truck
1: W, ll, Uf,
immediatcl v moves to scal e, lo be weighted as ~uun :1s possible. The queue 1, • •. 1 Al,V. ?2. OT,
111.IJ, 12'1, ln ,
. ·.,.
discipline i~ fl FO. When it. i~ wcighl·d, :1 ln1<·~ travels to the inc.Juslry ,ind AI.C. ?r,_1rr1
returns to the londcr queue. The distribulion of loading lime, weighing time EW.O, . lrf,
~ml travel time •ire given to !he following table as follows. ll " /IL0, 7Z. DI1
All}, 124, l)TJ ◄5 · lZ .
loacli1ig time 10 5 5 10 15 1-0 10 ~~~:;~: ~:
Weighing time 12 12 . 12 16 12 16 . r.w.10.o:r;
Al.(),12. OT,
Travel lime 60. 100 40 40 80 •. .0
C~lculatc the total busy hmc of.both the loadcrli, the scale, ..avcrage_loa<lcr
, and . ~:~t:~~'.i i~' . w '
AI .O. 92, DT;
6~ ·
scale utiliza.ti~n. Assuri,c s trucks urc at Ilic loader and one is at 1111:scalc al lime_ ill.lJ,144. DT,·
. Ostopping Evcii.t TE=60.m ins . · . . .. . . : (10 M:irl<s) Modulc-2
Ans: . . , . . . . . . . 45/2 ·. . . 3; ·n. Exi1lai11 i) I1;vc11tory ~ su.ppl/ ~irain mauagcmc;,t ;y;lc~s ii) Reliabiiity a.itd
.Averageloadcruliliz~tion; = 0.3~ t\faiiitaji,ability. · . . . . .. · · · . . . ' . . (O~!'rJarks)
64 . Ans, i) Jn .realistic inventory rind si1pply • chain rnnnagc~c.nfsystcms; iliere.,ar~ ·a1 ·
. · . . . . · 64
least 3 random variables: ·.. · · · · ·
. Averagescalcutilization =-
64 == I I. Then.umber of units de111a·11ded pe_r order° or per time ·p~riod. ·
Simulali~ri.table for il,;mp lruci, opcratiori 2. .The rime between demands. ,· ·
. · J. The le;id time ·
· · ·
Simul,ufo11 ~1111c·
. 'In very_ simple m~tl1e~atical _mcidels of inye~t<;I)' sysl~ms,'deina.nd/is a ·c6nstant :
(1ock(i) ii~)·,. 1.(1). ·. WO (I) · WC (<) Ill . '
· over time.and lead timeis•zero om conslant/ · : · : · - - · .• · · · .-: ! ·. ··· ··.· ·
J· .l . ·o· ·:.1_.
EL. 5,DT1 '
El,, 10. DT, . · 0 :.
• ,~ most i-eal world cases hen~c i:11 si111;1lation' models; dem~lids 'odc~~ ;and6m\y·
EW, 12, DT, . in time and the immbe1~ of units ·demanded·each rime a demand occurs· is.- also .
EL. .10, trr, . random. . , .. . . . . . . _ . . .• .. . . . , .. .
.2 . -I . OT, ·. llT, EL, 10,DT, 10
-. . D( EW, 12, OT, ; : ·• Distrib11tiona! assumptions for demand and lead.time in inventory theory texts are .
__. -. --- -•--, .-..:. 11suii111 ~ased o{inaiheniatical traclability bl1t those ll_SSff~J)tion{col)id ~(nyalid . -~
' 1.0 ·.·--=~ -:'. .:::.i1i,a i·~alisfle~ Hex=t. . , . . . . . ·. . ' , :. : ·. ~ .· .. .:, •. . . . ·
.• In practice, f/1e. lead tin1e ,Hstribt1tio11 can ofte11 ue fitted falrly'wefl by:aga01m·a , · · ··' -..
10 · . 2 .i
. . !JT, I CL, 12,
· DT, · t.L,20. DT1
or: ;.:, : 20
·•· dis1ributio11. · i ... > : • · ·: i ::.•.: :· ·. • •. • • · •. ·· · ·: ·:. ·. :_ , ·.·
ll( EW; 25, DT, · . • Unlike · a,;~Jyti~ mod~is, si~:tiiaiion .;i,6clcl~ tali,· a~com~~d~le<(~li~t~ve( .
. ·aSsu_mptirnlS a"ppetar nlosl r~S:Soirn~I~..-·. . -·,_ ...
· 12 . . ·.o · 2· l .. :· • : .
. • The geometric poisson:arid neg~tive binomial distribi,dons migh_ibe approfiriatc_._·,
• The passion distribution is often us<;(! to model demand bicause ii_issiifrple, itis:'
··. 1'.l.c25; DT; · -• · •. extensively tabulated a,i'd·R is well known:- .. · · · · ·· · '
·'· l 0 ·. . .. 0 .· . lcY,,,24, DT, .-. -·
/\'-9~12,-oT, ·•· Tl;e tail ~f the poisson ·distribi11ion is·genera)ly shortei·Hih1i· that .oftli~ nc:g~ti~e '.
1;1.. 2l, D1~ binomiai, which means thai fo~er large demai1ds _1~iil occur ifa poisson model;~·.
·..·___.__::.:__;_:· H· ·· o· ,. -.·1 , ·,.· Ill
_ o/ .
. ~W, 36, _D r, ~
ALO, 72,1,T, 4◄ · us·ed than if'a negative binomial distribi1lion is:used ..·.' . . . . . . .. ... .
AL(}:i24, DT,. ii) rcliability:iinf mai11iai1iability:- Time lo failure has beenriioaelled wlth riirmero11s ·
25 . . .o
:disirib~tions includi,ig ihe exponential, gamma ai1d weibt;11; If only r~nd.om failures .
occi1 r the tinie to failul'e d)slribution -may .be ,noddled ·as exparieritiaL:'('l1e gaminn . ·
distribt1tio11 aris~s from iriodJ!in ' ·sla°nd b , redtindanc' , where each com . . ~ , .
- - ·-' - .- -

:·_·_ -, - ~an~x~§nenllan,;~~Q]a1,[~1_15 _ _ I. - - -··- - -~~;· .· : ,- ·=~~::7:.:._ ~

28 . . ~- ·-. ______ --------- ---
,,1.+..~:.i &:...11;,,;:/"'~-- --~--· -· · :}z~ ·. _· --~ - ··
··•- i ---: --- --- - · __
. -::- .:::.:..·_-:.::::~__:~
-- - ---- - - . . --- - · -- -----
- . ------------ ---- --

,'" ~- _, _r,. r _ ;c I r _
 VIII Sew (CSE(ISE)
• The weibull distribu1io;1 has extensively used 10 represent time to failure nnd its ·
nature is such that it can be made 10 approximate rnm1y observed phenomena. 0,
When there arc a number of components iq n system and foilure· is.due _to_tl1~ mo st_ (x-:n}2
scrioas of a· lrt:·gc num ber of de frcts or possible clcfccls, the-we1bull distnbutrn
r(x) = {b-a)(c-a)'
seems IU de pa:tically wdi as a model. .
J. b. Explain the folloi1fog conti~IIOIIS distribii"tions
J.:. (c-x(.
i) Triangul:ir di~tri~uti~n . . · · .. . · · · . (S M:;rl<s) ·. (c-:b)(c-a)' b$xSc
ii) Lognormal 1hstnb1\t10n_ . . . ·. . . · · , . ,.b • ,- 'f ·ts ' . . ·. ·I, _. . . X >C . ' ' ' .· . . ' . '
Ans; i)Triungular dis"trilrntion :-A mndo_m vnrniblc x has a trmngulni d1st11 uho,n 1 1.
pdf i's givc'n by · .· Ii) to·g 1101~1:ii ilisttibutio~:-. A ~nndom variabie x ha~ a Jc,ii normal dtstribiiti~n ff ·
: .· 2(x-il)
f(x)-(b.:.a)(c-n)'

. . 2(c ...::xf
. a$x!>b .

b$x$c
·j
its pdfis •given by

.· ·f( :) ✓2 ltOX
. X .
I·
exp-:--.
· _
, .. ·
. [ (lnx-i) ]
-2
. · 2a
. -.
_ :
2
.
•

.
·: ·

1(>0
· · . , , ."' · • . ·

.. -
· :· ~_:,

· ·,.
' .· !·':
: · . ..

(c-.b)(c :-:- n) ' ·: .·•. ·: · ·-~-~-: _: _ ! >thet,~ise _ _, . . .. ·. :_/ ,

2
Wliere, a >9, The lheilil a1id ~ariance of a log notml!frandom yatfa~le_ari'_-'
. 0, c_lsuivherc . . . . . . . · .'
Where a~{b.$ c; r iie'mcide occurs at' x=Ii: A·1rfo1.i~11,la"r ~df is_ s!1f~·f ~elci1~( •
.E(x)=e1•••"' i .. ' .:_ '., · ·:· ·: _ ·.· · : .·· ..: . :·,,,<;•
f(x) V{ ~? ~ e
11
'••; (e<:-1) . . . . . .. . \;'.','/_'' .
-: , •· .., · Thr'ee l9g11or111al pdf;s all' l1aviug mean ·Jj but varfo~s 1/2, .I and 2, atfshq~~h'beiqw::
. . ,..·/.:<Li,~--~~: .. - -..- - _· :.:';>:~E.t/(<.-.-
.. - \_._~}_~ ·~:.:-:}... . ·,_. .
. . . . ~. ·:···..

~ .-...- -. -
·:_.' <<"
.
~~.fr~f#,ii:(
·.• ' ' ·'The pnnimeiers ~i- ahd ai nre not the meai1 and-variance :ofth~ Jog~qlli~!-:JJi.ese
- ' .. ·. piir_ametcl'S co1he from _tlie fact tha_i~ hei1'y/1 ns a µ(µ;\i-1fdisfr1buticin}ljefi'xa:.eY h~s
. .. . . · a lognomi,'ai distdbutioli '\J,'.ith par.im~ters ~( ari~ cr2:' lfihfmean a~~ xanilit,e',of.t~~ -
.. ,: l_ogriormal are kno\1/n fo lie ~ and a 2 respectively, tlien the piinimei~rs,· µ?~d.P''.4 er¢ . _-':-

F,[✓::t.J , .. ·..·..·. ' 2:~+%~f\1:~:_ -F

- '.....<> .-~·_-.--~>
'.,, L :
L:·. ..
_ _. :•li •1' - - •· ' - · .
I , \. ,
:~;\:·;r~~:.·l~; ._· ';. .
 .VIII Se1111 (CS[/ISf)
OR od;
4. a. Expl:1i11 network~ of queues in Queuing modd: (06 Murks)
p[11+ I] : =pf.I]" (k rnc/ (n! '(k-11)!))" crho"11;
do; , .
Ans. Tl\ ~ s\\::;y 0 1 mu,1lc111n:ical model of ne;wor:<.s of (jllC\!C is beyond tbc sc<>pe .
for II from -c 10 k
• A few fumlamen:al principles are vi:ry u~cful ll!r· rough cut ·111mlclling, prior lO
do
simula1io1is study. .p(n+I)!= p[li* (k li1c)'(c"(11-e.)•(k-n)!•c focJ)•crl:o~~ -
• The following results asimme n stable system with infinite calling population and .
od;. '
no limit no system capacitY: .
I. Provided that no customers are created or destroyed in the queue, then the depa1ture
RETURN (cva /in (p));
erid; .
rate out.of a que1te is the same as the ariiva! rate i:1to qie queue, over the long run.
· 2. If c·ustome11; arrive to queue i nt rnte Aand a frnc.tion 0:S pij :SI of them are routed M9dulc-3 ·
· to queue j upon departure, thentlt;·,mival rate frum queue ·j to queue j is i..jpij. cive{ .5. n.. wimt i~ linear, c~n11r11cn.tial method? Us ti · 1· · · '.
: the long.run:. . . . . , ' · . . " . ·. .· c. 1e 1ocar congruentl:11 melhoil to
g~n~ratc n scqucn~c o_f random numbers X;F27, a=l7, c=43; m=I0O. 06 ·. . . .
. 3. The over- all arrival rate into queue j, Aj, is the sum of.lite arrival rate from all
· sources. If custo1i1ers ni:rive from outside thellet1-vork at rate aj,.the·11 • ·
~ns. Lt~car con~rucnhnl method:- It was initially proposed· b. !ehui~ \ rar":9)
. se~uence ~f integ~rs x,. ~': between r and m-1 following recuJive relatio~~f uces a
"-i=e;+L\Pij : • · · · · · X1tl=(a"1+c)modmi=0.1;2 .... :... I · · :p :
•· o.lli · •
The i11itia·! ".lllues XO is called seed, a-- multiplier c...:. ir.cr~men~ and m is ~odels
4._. If queue j' has' Ci ~ oo, paral!cl se,vers,each' working a\ 111_!( ~lj, then: \ong,' run .
.• . lfc#O m eq I then.the form -is known as 'the' mixed congrue f' 1 ·h
· od · . ·. . '

· utl!izatio,n of cnch server is . •

. ,. .
.· . · . . . : · :• . · ,. ,; . · ,'.
. ·•lf·Ot!f
. -~7" , H,)_ .orm.1s' k·nown,
. . nmme:
as m_ultipJicativecongruentfal method. . . · . .
". •

. _._Pi ·;'\;~li' ' •":; ' .·,•.. ;· R1"~. i=l,2......

.m
andjij~l:is~uired for' the·q;ieuet o~_est?bl~.. ' I . - . . • • . • ~ -· -· : '. .. • . •' ; ; :; 'X;., ={;1·f.i +·c),;1ott~/ · , , , ,- .

,
s. if, for ea'cl1 qllCUe,.j, arrivals from' 6ul:sid\i tlii!.iietwork from a poisso1,1 process;:
. ·. . with rate ~J ~nci ifthe,rc are.ci identic~t'se!"ici:s d1:liveri1ig exponentially distributfd/
. serv,ice_times. w_ith m~in µi tl1e:\,in steady ~tate, q·l!CUe j behaves like all' µ/µ/i\ queue'\
·with .arrival.rate ·
,- - _--~'-~~-~ 71•1~~=k~:~P.
- --~
:
::;;:,:::::;:_:::::::~::::.:::::::::':c-==;~':::::::::~=====
. }~~::Et~,;~ ·. . ., . . , -~ ·--~ ----
.- :

, ,· .',,; ... . C , :c·.:_ .-,.,c; ~. C:O;:l;;/ ;', / :~:":•'i_-,., : , . ,

4:'b. Write thcnrnple proced1ire'to ciikulntc p for the M/M/C/1{/J( queue. .
. , .· .
•·!~~{~ ~;=
·it~ ~0:02))_, ~: ·
(io Mari<.S)
1

• • • , • - " • • •

., f x2,"'(:ixl ~+c)m;dm
Ans, . m-~~b~khpr~c,{l}mbdii, mu,p,,kF: ... . · · , . ,.. .. : :, · =(17~2+-43)modl00
,· } ."r.etllrn .~eady st~t_e prubabifaie& foi· M/~·1/M/CiK/K, q11e~e.. '
. . - . :#notic.e that .p[n+lJis [J,il, 11=0;..... X . .. . . .. . . .. . = 77.111C\d°IOO ·
iocai crho, ·k fa~~c ta~.~; 1;i ·-.·.-' ·· X;"'7! ~.--·- -. ~
-· . - .. . ·
-~~f~ 1::~~ o}:
. - ,, -- P: vector {K+l ,. Of;c0~
·:. crho:- lambda (mu; .. ·
'.~ ~:~;t ti! ; .~-~~-~- ' ..' · · :•:;_·•·'

·-:-· ·: -:~.... ,:;;--._-:,." ·-··. •. •

·:j··• .
~- ·, .'

p[l]:= Sum ((k r.·l7(1i.· 1! (k.."1i)';!))+crcho"i1,'n;,,O, c.."i)+

· ·, Sum ((k'fac/(~n:efnk-1i)J ~<;-Jae))* ~rl{o"n, n~c .. k);·:
. . - - - ·· . .. .-. . ·- ... . , c:.. .,:,.- -· • - - - - • : ,- - - •• • • • - ..!... • .:... • ••

·· · · ---~ ~-·- · ·----- .,_.

.
____ · :
- - - - -- -~--- -- . - ·- · - - - ------- ----·- - ---
- - ---- .
 VIII Sem, (CSf(ISf)

X 1 = (17 • 77 + 43)mod 100

=1352modl00
Sfcp 4 ::-Sim
.
=-'-[f rti..
111 -,. 1 •..., _
kin.Ri-+ (k + l)mJ-o.2s

X3 =52 o--~
-~1, n --12(,~
52
R3 = ~0.~2
100 Aofterz·computing· Z0, do-1101 reject the. n all hypothc;is of independ~nc:~ {r 7'_:_,.; ·:
z $ _,;t;./2 . . u--,.;,<,_
X, = (17 • Si t43)mod 100
l'roblcm ·solutio.n
x, =27 Step I :-To_.tcsi H.: S.iln.= 0 or 1-1,: Sim/10 .
"}.7 - .
Step 2:_- C.alcullltc.M ·
Ri = 100 =~.27 . "it (M.+i) 111::,N' . .. . . - ;d !
'Xs =(l~x27+43)niodWO
• •• I• •• • • '
3+(4+1)5$30
28~30
X5 =2 ·-·.:--··. M;,,-4 -:,
. . .. 2 .. .
Rs= 100:=0.0_
2- . . Sim=¾ [{<i.21)(0.2:s)+ (0.28){0J3) +(0.33)(Q~;)+,(~.27) ... . ; ,, ~--
5; b; Expl;in lcsi.ror Autocorrclatio;,:,.consicl~r the scqucn~~.' \;_\ / · . :. · · - - (9:o*(o.osj(o,~·~j):i o:;S' :-
0.12 _. 0.0 I ,CJ:23 ·- 0.28. :o.'s9· . 0:3 i'- 0.64 0:28 oil .· o~:93 sim,;,-0,1945 · ·
0,99 - 6.15 · 0.33 0.41 0.60 027 . 'o.75 ' o.$.8
0.35 0.91 and ··
0.68 0.49 0.05 0.58 · 0.19 · 0.36 0.69 : 0.87 ·
0.43 0.95
·· Test for-,~h~tfrci· .iltu .3rd; Slh,.13th 11,,s soon numl!Ji-i in •ihc scquJncii
. ·_corr~cl.ccl'11siug x;,,; 0.05, considc,, critic;! .v,1lt1<: f,96;,,., ·_. -, , ,,., .':-_, .(.10 Mir ..
.r1-l\~i ·-/;,f ~~(~%', :~1;:• .•;,., L. .\ __.. "!:·
·, ( :,, -:
-~ -:- ~-

~ ~~;{:rr~';J6
Ans.- Test for .nuto ·correl;iio;, :-It is concenied witli'ti)e depcit.rde.nce betWee1i·J1imio .. _)
. itl a seque·11ce. Her~ test to be describetl;shoi1ly require·~tiie cci1npuiatiot1;<1fth~ a,u( . :. _, 'Zo
· _con·eiation· bmveen every m·numberntnrting with the _i th nuniberi' ..i; . ·· ../. : '·1\ ,
-· ...:.Zcr./2.~ZQ ~Za/2 . _ -~' • : _:. ~_:· _- ~<.::-,·,."·_:_
. -~: ·:
i •· . . ·.:.· , .T?rtie'auio correlation betweCl\ 11"1111bers Ri( Ri+m, Ri+2m .. :: Rif(M+.1 ).mJ'!1e_vnl~ej,-; ··:L- _: ~~ii·:96~~1~·Si~~
-$~i:~· :.:::t<>- ·- ·
.·.-. ·.. 't: j._:.F:-
=·". - · ... ·_. --::ivf:.is:\aryesf-liiteger s11cb·111~tJL(M±f)..m9l:where:N.':iS:1 . - alue :·
i
j
I
· . ·:-~J1~ fl~~_seque!~ce . . · ..:· .·~ .· ·. • .. ·.: · ·
~tep).:: Fornrnlilt<; the liyp?lhcsis : · · 1··
HQ: ~im=O Vs H," :.Sim -t.O. . . ·. . . : . .
·· ··_.: : :! -'-~ ·
·_'• ('"~"~'' ' /f•:~~~;-.oa:1t;'f,~ ,.•,_.,_ --} .;,,? ._- ..
: :~
--.
· , ...

! · -~lcp _2;:_~_Calculatc M; µsing it (M+l)n1sN< ·· , i_ ,' E~pla!n -,i1,cfo;;o,,•i~g .( ;... ·. :,; .,-•., ; i,.f~(
t ·.: si~p°J::..¢alulat~Zo=Shii - . . .. --~ -- - . .
i)Wcibull disfri~·utions -' · . . ,·:-:-,-- . ..,/ .:

-I•-·
{ .
::•?¥.~~£~;,~; {t;;~:;t~,::t::;e:tjtt!tJAI[:Ii
. ._/:. ~ ·- • . - I • •: , ·-: · ;.: •.-:•- - ·
_I:Z/J}~ji~~~\i:~!~~~:i~~1o~,,~J1t~~~:i·_
' ' Whe1:e a>O~llct ~>:0 HrJ the sqnlea_nfs~apt'.phrtlmet~~:of ihe ~i~t~ibhti6~.:
:. - -:Step:( :0 Jhe c~lf !s given by f:N.;,l~"(x/cr.)'',~O -- · ·. .. ~ - ... . ., .•

-~- -- . -:··...::.:.... __ . _

--- -.-. -. -. --:- . . . .--- ---- ~ · ·

:7:-;:_,:: •._.~ : ~-~ ::-;•~. . ~. ~-:::y-~;··__:[/~~--~:-_:. ~~:_- . - -- _.
...- ..............
.. ·- ·. ,.. -.- :··... ~- -·--: . .-..· .. ;.-~~--;-- ..
 VIII Sem, (CSE(ISE)
Step 3:- Solving foi· x in !crms ofR yields. · 6. IJ. Downtimes for :i high prciduction cnndy mnldng machine have been 'rc{.'.i'n1l ·io
x=u[-ln(I-R)J"0 ... (2) . • . . . be gamm:1 distributed wi.lh mcnn 2.2 minutes and variance 2.10 minufcs, where
By comr,ui11g, I and 2, ii' x is a ll'eih11 II variate. lh~rr x is an ·ex poncntiol variat~ with_
11
(P2.30 :ind (J=0,4545. Ccmsid1-r ihc following random numbers 0.'8~2•, 0.21,
mean a ~, if y is an expon~n:i~I var i.i :c witil nr enn ~1, !hen y";, is n weibull vnria:c. 0.434 , 0.716 (08 Marks)
With shape parameter fj and scale p,1ramcter-u=~LI/~. . . ,\os.
ii) Triangular di~tributiou :- Consider a rnndorn vari,1blc x lh~l has pdf; 1
.·x, 0$1'$1 · · Stepl:-a .- · , -0,53.b=0.91

!
· (2 >< 2.30-1( .
f(x)= 2-x, lsx52 ~tep2 :~G~nerare Rj = 0.832, R: ·= 0.021
0. other wise
. .·sav~o.sm(1-o.832)=4.952
:: . .'•:; . ·, .. · . . . .
This distribution is called 11 triangular distri~uiion widt endpoints (0, 2) nnd mode at ' ' '

L Its cdl' · · · · · StepJ:-Co111pufox =2.3(4 .952) 05 \,5j7 . · . ., . . .: ;,:. 1,

9, x~O . Step4 :~~:=?:37,>0.91+(iJ(o:s3)+ l)ln.4:952~ :'.':·-'..1
xi

f(x),;,
2
' (2-4
.<Jsxsl
'. . ~091 +i:~:ili1\(t:~;i.;,,i,s;~\,:J,:·•·:·•'' iii'!.·.
I~ 2 . '
lsx_s2 . ""i· _:, ... r~l\l[~.f~Ster,2 '. . , .. i. ·.· : .
,1, · ,X>2 : St~p 2 : ,:,.Geiieraie R;, = 0:434, R,:: =JJ. 716/.set v.;; OA3.4
· ·.• - -x u.to.~34)j = 6.161 · . >._;. /: ;, :
f(x) •·: · :···· ·

·. ~. ;,
.I ·. /.

. -···· ·- ··. - . - ·- . - .

:, prcli1i1i11aiy study before any process data are availa~le. fn .this :Cll~e;,!~e !ll~~ei niiist .
be resourceful in choosing input models and must carefully,'check the se1is'ftivity of

.~I§~'.::::.::::::::.,::,::::::::';t!tt:~f~;!
· . by the i1ianufacttii'es. · Ex:- laser prirlter-6~11 ptod~~el ~ paµes(in'i.n~it~? t,li' cutting'
speedofatoolislc111/seco11d. ·. · · .. . , . · ::.:'-,· _.: :. ···:'. '-:"~·-··,
2. Ex1icrt option:- Talk to peopl.e wl10 ~re·exp/ri~r,1c<:~ witJ1Jfi~prqcess or Iimilar .· '
·process. They might also b_e able to say whcthcr'the 'pro~ei:i~ ~eai'ly~~~~•~t~.:.. _ .
hi rh I .v.1riable!ai1d~ic__ 1~1i '.!!_1 _be_~bI~ !.o.~efin~ tl!e _s.?~1~~~.!: ~~~!_Ji ·: . . .
-- -- - - -----·

.-:.. ·· ..: ·-
 VIII SMW (CSE(ISE)
3) P_hysical or convcntionnl limitations:- Most real process hnvc phys1cnl llinits
on performance for example, complltcr .data c;1try cannot be fost er than a pcrsrni
can type. Because o(com pany policies, th~rc could be upper limits 011 ho\~ lm.1g n
pruccss may ia;,~.
4. The nature of process:- The descriptio11 of t:1e distr ibu:iuns can be used to justify
a particula;.·choice even when he data ar1£ available. When data are not'avnilnblc, the
uniform, triang.ular and bet~ distributions arc often used as in rut models.
104520 1.0(101.8)
7. b, Let x °reprc.scnt the ,wcrnge k:1d time to dcliv~r 1111.d x1 · be the ,111n11al dcmnnd, ·
1
, (j
~,---~-.!...... = 9.930
for industri:11 robots. The following data :u·c :1vailnblc on demand and lend time·
for tl,c Inst ten industrinl robots. The following cl.1t.1 arc av:1ih1b\e :on demand 8.66
and lc:1d time for th.~ !:1st t~n years·. .. · · - · · · p 0.86
(1 :024)(9.930)
Lead time 6.5 4.3 6.9 6.0 · 6.9 6.9 5.8. 7.'3 .4,5 6.3
Demand _103 83 116 97 112 104 106 109 92 -96 Lead ti.me and,dernand are dependent'
. ·:·-· ··. .
Find the dcpcmlcncy between the lead time and demand. OR
De1iiand •" ·x1 • X-i i.: 12 . x_/
Lead.time
<x > (x,) - .
.•
s; a. Explain point ~sti1;1_a;iO); in ~,c~s;i,:~s ~fp~~form;n~-2 · . cfo:Ma~l~) _·
Ans, The point estimator of Oto baseii'on the data-[y 1.. :..y }' is d~fined by ·
6.5 I03. . 669.S 42.25 '
., 4.3 . 83 356.9 (8.49
8:".Jt,_ :;Y, ., · . ..(!)_,> . . • ,. • • •• •

116 800A . 47.61

··.. Wlier~ e is; i~i11pl¥ i11~aj1[iased oi1\sampl~ si~ ri, :to~:pu't~r si~ulatlo~ la~gil~g~ .. . ~ .
...' ·-mat refer to_ this ~s1a discr~te ~inie,'~iillect, fall yor.observational'_siatistic.~te point ... ·

;Jrr:i~t .··::::·:-=·~,_-_·•_·_-_·_ 3>_·.;

· .. 6.9 112 1.72;~ : · · 47)jl . ·. •;est11nator 0;is said' to be 1ihbiasedfoc.0 ifits ~xpected vlll4e is:o_~that is, .if/- : . ·· _: :
. 6.9
.5.8 106 - 614.8 -. 33,64

·. ·. and E(0):... 0 is cilfl~4 the biasj it th.~iiointestimator 0.·lt is desirabl{to have estimat~rs
· ·thatarrun\,ias~~ or,ifjhis is r:ibt'pbssib1;;J;a".ea--smaii bia;relativeto.the ~agnitude .

..;~-610 the .;,i~""i';' ;,;m ,;~~1:;T;;c1i~;;~ ,.;, ;i,(~;.;,".

W=-Iw, andwo=-Iw~ ➔ w 0 .. - _- - - - - ..· ::

. )n:w~;~-~~s?yi is Jl1~-,i:~~pe1i ·i~ ~~~~~t~in'fy- ~1~s"fi~~;.i:~. _ -: . . _

.tfi.tt;:;tr-~:i=-= :c.•;.:\ .' .•.··' .c _•: ··,
' ·. Jhe'p9int ~Sttm~!~~f ~.based oo:tfie data .fr'(i},0::s't:ST!},,vliere'i'is thesim~laiiori : -·

<-->~/ ~.t ::~a;l~td ~~h~·e'~'.v_e~g~~fft)~~~i~&~ ·/ '. : ·~ .T - ., :-/ /· .. · · ·.. - - - i~--

:--,:- -.. -: - - -
·- · ··-·• · ---
----~T-; . .i.. Sii11~h•£~A<i,.~ti~~_=-::_-::;:=;_~..,:~--=--=.:::_
~-:=:;;·c._c.c
c- _cc._=_=_=-;_-;..~~=
. ..•,
.. . --.- .-.,, - ~-~---
-• •- -.- -c·•c+ - • .,.:•(.•. ~\• • ..!-7"_:!
 VIII Set111 (CSE(ISE)
Simulatioi1 languages may refor to this as a "conti1111ous time'', "discrete• change" _5. A COl)lnllllliC~lio1is systctn consists of several componen1s plus sev;;;r~~~kL;p
.comµoncnts. It 1s rcprcsc111cd schematically in the ri 11 un: . . ·.
or '.'time. persistent" statistic .
lngcneral ·E(e)><·9 .. .(5)

ai1d ~ is'said to be biased for~- .· •

Generally, 0 ·and ~ arc regarded mean measures.of performance of the system being.
siniulated. Other measures usually .cai1 be put into. this common framework. For > :;

example, consider estimation of the pioportion .o.f days 011 which sales .are last · Consider the system over ii period of time Tr,; imtii the system fails, The si~ppin;
through ai1· out of stock solution. In the.siinulation, let. · event Eis defined by E= (A fails·or D fails or (band c ·botlrfail)), Initial c01\ditic1is•
Y· = p,: f.ouiofstockonday: n.re tliafalJcomponents are. new at time 0. : . . _. •. · .' . . · ·.. ·. :_,
'l 0, otherwise · · Module-5
. With 11 eqitalt~ the· tot~! number of tlays, 0 defines by equationi is a point eslim~toi . ' 9, II, Expiain I1;iti11;l~:itions Bias in s;eady stat~ sill!illlr, .. ·.. : : _c.1_,.~.;_M
_: ~.:.rl~)·•
· ofll, the proporiioi1 of o·ut of stock days: Fof a .seco11d example; consider estimation. ,Ans. This.method is .called intelligeni initializati911 exam.pie inchide, · .. . .. .' -, ·
. of the prcipor(i~n of time Qu~ue length i.s grnte.r. than ko c(:stomers, If Lo(t)represents . · L ~etting the i1ive1ifoiy levels; ni1inber of back ordei-s' and nl!nib~r of it~rii~\~:ordci
simulated queue le1)gth at.tim.e t, then·define . •. .· · a'n.d 'thefr i11·rival' dates i1i'an inventoiy simulation,' , · •::.;. ,,
. •.{I,.
y(t)=
ifL {t)k~· . '
. . .Q . .
. . 2. Placing custon;ers iii queue and in service in a·qiieuing s.imulaiion.-< .· .·
3, Having some compone·111s:fa_iled or degraded iii a reliability simul.atio11:: · ·.. ; · . ··
. · 0, ·._-other~visc
Th~n ~ 'defi1ied by equatio;1 (4), i~ ·~ ~o[nt ·e;timat0r. .of ~ , 'ihe po;~io,i of ti~:.
- ~s There:a.re at .Je:2:51 two ways..to ~pecify tl1e ini.tial c0nditio~ intelligently~.. <. ·. ·..: .
, If the system exists, col.lect data 01i l(and use
these data to'. specify}ni~;;~early:
.: that ihequeuc length is graier tlrn1i k0 cusion1ers . Thus, ~stimation,ofpropo1iioi1sf
'.' p1·ob~bilities}; :i spe~ial c,as~ 6.ft~ estim1for me~1is; . ··,: '. · : ,: " . :.; . ;· . · t .· . • ~i;i~c.~\~;;;~~]s~~~}:t~~:~e~ulr~s}iarge·data colle;ii{~ :tr~J. -··:f \t?/( \.•
. ' s. h..Explai1; icnili~ iltii1f~i11111lnHons with r~~pctl to Olitput analysis, ., '(06 Mnrl~f
0

: • .,'tf tl1e_syste:r being mo'deled do~si.1 \ exist for e'.xani'pl~, if it i~ a:y~~lin( cfati; /·
.·. A11s, In .the an~lyzing 9f simulation output data a distinction· is made be:tween terminating:. .existin& system tl)ismethod is impossible·io imple1nent; . . · ·... · ·,}c: . . ·
'.! . _:. . · ·or transient simulatio,is ai1d study's\ate siinulatfons. A tenninating si.rriulation is ci)le::. • . ·lt ,i$ rei:q111.nie'i1qcd•.tl1at ,sin.1ulatio11c;a112.!ysts .use.. anY: a"ailab.li,: data :~~\ :X:isffng
i:'-
...
that-runs fo( sim;e'd_uration of t.ime Tr,; Where E·is a specified event that siops .the:'
. . ·.. iifiiilalion ...Sucli.£simulated:systen1-qfte1r:.at-JimeJl=l.illdeBYeli~spi:cified;,nltia c;_
lt• -~.;,,:i:<,. '.~~..-:;"~~Miti9ns,~1\d}lo~e~ ~tth~f~opr.ing _tiri.1e,T;~ •:- . . -.
f ~: .
. · _ , ._-:- ·,- c· · . ·
· · ·..: ~~a~plcs'. I. 'fhe sh~dy grpov~ B~n.k;?pe11s,at 8:30 A)n with n? custom,e ~ present ,
.
·•.,;•··:7~;,;~~r:r:;~:~~;*~~1r•~J•t:·~t :·:.·
·.· ·•· Arelilted ideil)s to o.btain _i11itia_l t;oii~i!i_Cins froni a .second IJ1Q~el-01dje~yst~m
Ii .. llnd 8 of the 11 tellers workerfact ·thnt the back.has been openfor .Zl~O mmutes. The -'. •. .·. ·. that ha.~ been,:simul,ate~ enoughto~make it mathe111a,ti~fl.ly solvable~ i '.·~:-: / ,·
jL· .·. . :.· s.ini,iil~t!~n analys\ .i~ ri1tcr~sied i1_1 ITIO\leiing tlie ·inter~cti011 between ~u~torn~rs /ind .< · • The .sim)ilifled · mo~el cmi be solvea to find .iongsterrn expected iiijhibi:r of .·
1,i. •. · · · , .. .·tellers over.the entire day;•mcludmg.the effect ofstmtmg up and ofclosmg down at ·. ·.· custon11~rs in ihe queue andthese'2oJldiiibns ciui b~ used to i11 itialize ihe simi1latioi1: .
r1i · · the end ot'th~ day. .• . . ·. ., . • ·. •. ·. . . ... . •.· .··. .~ .A•secoi1d n~etl10d t9, redu~e•. th(i\npact. pf0i1Jltial ~onditions,: poS:sibly/ use<I: in _.
II .;,_:..~. ~~ . 2..Co11sider the sh~dygrcive ba1ik of e;an;ple 11.(btit resirici~di~the pe;i9d froi11 ; :-~61ijwi~·1io1t.,~ith tlu: first ,dndnitiaiizatioi; eacl1-siinul~!ion.·rlln• i'i.1/9,h;·pitas~~ . :''
lj, :· . .,·-:----'---- 11 :30 Am to 1.30 P.iii wiieil it iscsp~cjally busy. Thesimulationrur•length is T~j:120 . fir.st.ai1 i11iti;ilizatio11 phase:frem.O r.;.ti111e !OJoflo\yed by a daia 90ile9ii41rp\1,a,sJ, .
-r-..
t;
-. ---
111,inutes; T,he ii1iiial co11ditio1is at tin1e OCOlild be sp~cified •i1{esse11tia)ly:twci ways . •.
3.,Thc real syst1:ii1 conld b.e observed at 11 :30 on. allUl'(lber Pf~iffer~nt days ant
..: fr.om time J\t9 the stopJ?ii1g}.iil~e Tot.T" iliat _is,.tbe ~-i.mufatio1~;~i;lipf ~rtini~·o::. ~:
.. '. unddi'specifi~d initia)co!1diti\infli and ru11sfor a spe9ifi~d perJod,9f\ime T/ ·::..:.:
i. .•.·. :.~-,~~:,: :;;!::~~~~(%':i~: •~;rnbcr. data could .be. used to _load the _5imu'.t~;19d;I , t~~~
. . •.·pata coHe~(ion.O!l)lie re$pt:ili,secvariables of, ln.terest does liol begi,i~ !l~tH:iin'te T~ . .:
· : a,id continues until time .T0+T~. .,.. ··: : : ·· :, /.·.· ·... i ,... ·::,.::., .,c ;,, .\.;./i :>.: ... .
. • \The sta(ll ~t iime i,•. is qttite•important because the systeni state:ait,ryie To:d·1f1iotc~
I. . . . ·•• :. . . •c 4, The 111Qdel cciuld be· si1\1Ulatcd from .8:30· Am to 11 :30 Am without colles:tii1g :

.. -:.::~r::~· oulput statistics andihe c;1di1\g .coi1ditio1;S at 11,:JOAm .ti~ed ai,: i~iii~i~ol1Jitfdns for{ . . by•i, should be m·ol'c neatly representativeof steady- state behavio~r than are the ~-
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 VIII Se,m, (CSE(lSE)

9. b. Explain Balch means for.inlcrval estimation in steady -state simulations. I) Face v:ilidity:- The first goal of simulation ~1odel is ·to construct ·a mqdel that
· .. . (06 Marks) appears reasonab le on its face lo model users and olhcrs who are kno_wledgenble
Rbout real invo.lvcd in model construction from its conceptualisation to implement.
Ans. The method of batch means a:'tempts to solve the disadvm1t11ges of a single-
Sensitivity ;urnly~is can also be used to.check models foce v,ilidity:
rcp!icalion desi;;,; ar:ses when we try to co:n putc !he standard error of the ~ample
\lloctc! user is asked :t' the model behaves in the expected way. When o:1c or more
· mean, by diving the output data :hen trea~ng the_means of these balcl~~s as 1~!hey.
input variabl<:s arc changed for example; In queuing systems if arrival rate.is
were indepe1ident. · ,. · · • ·
.incri:ased. We expect server utiliz.1tion and queue length to increase,
When the raw output data after detectio~ form a continuous ·_lime process {y(t) , To~ .
2) Validating model assumptions:- ·Model assumptions are· of i types. struc.tural
t =:; T0+ T~} ·such as the length of~ queue or the level of inventory,then we form k
assumption and data assumption. . : · ·. . . . .. ·
batches of size m=TJk and co1npute the batch means as . · . . . ·. •
· l . j111 • • •
Structural assumptions involve. questions of how the systi:m operates. _For example, .
v, =--'- J Y(t +.T0 )dt ··· consider customers queueing and service facility in a bank. Numbcrof queues may
· be ·1or 2 or 3 etc !:Ustoniers may be i1iciving from queue to Oth·er.queue discipline may
. .m(j-l)ru .. . . . .
be FIFO etc . These structural assumption should be verified by actual observation
for j=. I, 2, .....
k. ·. ·. . . · · . . · · · . · ·.· '. . :· , . .
during appropl'iate time. periods together discussion·. with managers ·ai1d teller
When the r~iv .outptit data after de I.et ion form a discrete. tim~ process {Y,; 1= d_+ l,
regarding bank policies and actual implementation of this policy. Data assumption ·
. d+2 .. .. n}, such as the customer delays in a queue or the cast per p_eriod.of an inventory
should be based on co111iection of i·elinble data and correct analysis of data. for
system, then ·we torm k-batcl1es of si.ze m= tn-d)/k and compute the b~tch.ireans a~ ..
example, In above ba1il;ing system, data .may ·be ..collecled on inter - arrival time, :
. I '\"'"'' Yi +.d . . · . · ' ·
service time etc. · ' .· . .
Yr= .M..:..,i-<i-,1 M +I . .
The reliabiliiy of datii-is verifie~ by con·s~ltation with bank mangers. Analysing data
For j= J ,2 ...::k That. is; tl;e batch mean~ are formed ~s ~hown here consist of 3 steps . .
Y, ,., ... v., Y•• ,...... ,Y,1+m :.Yd+ni.:1 ::.:.,v~,Im':.:.vd;(k~l)m+i,. . . 1. Identifying probability distance,
'---v'---'
&!ktcJ . ,•.· : ·: >Yi .
'-----...-----~
'. .Yi.
.
·- "!
2.·Estimating parameters. · · . · l·
3. Validating' modeli bfgbodness of fit test: --~ · · . · · ,.
•.~ .. ;Yd+k:1i • ·. .. 3) Input 011tput y11iidatio~·11Sing historical data':- ltere.tho input data is generate'd ! ~~
"--:!---' '
· by using the actual historical record. When using this technology the model knows. .
thal'the simulatiu11;~ill duplicaie as closely as possible the important eve1its that ·, . _-
.occurred ,i!l _the rc~l system. _To co,;duct a.~~li<j~tiq~. !~~U1s,ing _h}stor/cal l\lptit data--: -.-.- 0 \ , ~- ," •
if [email protected].:.aJ.IJnrni!c.dat~and nU_response.data be c~llected during the_s~me ·
-lime pcrio . ·.
I_O. b·. Explain Iicrativi procc~i/or calib..;.iing a model.
A~ . . .
is
Calibra)ion the iterative p~oce;s ·of ~ompad~g t6e ·model to the._ real. ~stem, :
makin1iad}ust111ent to the fnodel, comparing the. revised mod_el to reality;making'
·10'. ~;Expl:ii~ ih;·~c st~-p a1111..;;ncii fo·~vni°i<latlo;1 p~oc_~ss a~ fo.rmulaied by N;yloi" :ind . additional adjustme1it comparii1g again ·and so, on , :_ . . . . · · · : . · ·.. · . ' ·: ·. .
· · f?ingcr. · .' · . ·.··.·· .,.· ~ .' ·. •.. _· : .• , : . ._-: . . ·; -~·.: (lOM:irks)
• .The comparison of ihe model to reality is carried.out by a variety of tests. ~; . : -~~~­
· Ans. ThefoflO\foig 3- step approach aids iii thevatiaaH01fp_r,~~ess: - · .. . ·• ·Subjective tests ·usuaily hivolves people, who.are .kn·owledge about. the .model~ ~--,"-·;
· I.·Build arnQdel ihat has higli face value,- :•·-~:__-_::_. . . . . . , . .. . . .
2: vrilic(ate model ass11mpiicins. . ·. I·-~·-·-: .. -·:..:: ; ' ... ..· . ' .· ·- _aspects of th'e output. · . :_.. •.· ... . .: :° . ·. . . · ·: • ~- ~···- ·. ·:· ::~. ( :.',-,.~,.c-- _:_.,..:..___~·-
, • Objective testsal~vays reqt1iredataon.the systt:m behaviour, plus_thec6rrespoiiding __ ,-,.-.-:
. · j ; Comp;ire tl1e model inptitoi1tputtrnn~form~)i'on t,o corresponding Hie inputloutpU!
dataproduce@themodel. . .. / . · ' . : . ·.. , _: ·-. ,; ~ - -
.transformation of real syst"em i . · - '~~ - ··. ' . · · ·
• Ti1en one ~? niore st~iistical (~SIS are.perforineci to compare s6mt: aspect of tne . ~·- ·
modeldatas~t.:: . · . . . .. . . . .., . . - - ~ --
·:\· :-- -; .; --: ."·.:~-r---~~--~--- _ ., .- -·: .-• __.: _----:~f __:_ .

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-==c=.. ."42-- _-_ --- -..c_=-:. .'-:,. Su;,ifv
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 VIII Se,m, (CSE/IS'E)
• This 'iterative process of comparing model with the sy_stem and tl1e11 ~cv ising both
the conceptual and operational models to accommodate ai1y perceived· model
deficiencies is continued 1i11tii :he model judged to be suffidently accurate.

lni!ial model
Revise
Renl Compnrc revised model lo :rcillit)'.
First revision of model _.
System
. . Revise
;u rc~:i11j, .
.. Conip11rc second ~visio;,
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