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Condl Prob ProblemSets

The document contains 12 probability and statistics word problems. The problems cover topics like conditional probability, independence, Bayes' theorem, and calculating probabilities of events.

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Puloma Singh Raghav
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81 views3 pages

Condl Prob ProblemSets

The document contains 12 probability and statistics word problems. The problems cover topics like conditional probability, independence, Bayes' theorem, and calculating probabilities of events.

Uploaded by

Puloma Singh Raghav
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problem Set - II: Conditional Probability, Independence and Bayes’


theorem
Ex. 1 — A picnic is arranged to be held on a particular day. The weather
forecast suggests that there is a 70% chance of rain on that day. If it rains,
probability of good picnic is 0.2 while if it does not, probability is 0.9.

1.What is the probability that the picnic would be good?

2.If the picnic was good, what is the probability that it did not rain that
day?

Ex. 2 — Physicians and pharmacists sometimes fail to inform patients ad-


equately about the proper application of prescription drugs and about the
precautions to take in order to avoid potential side effects. This failure is an
ongoing problem in the United States. One method of increasing patients’
awareness of the problem is for physicians to provide Patient Medication In-
struction (PMI) sheets. The American Medical Association, however, has
found that only 20% of the doctors who prescribe drugs frequently distribute
PMI sheets to their patients. Assume that 20% of all patients receive the
PMI sheet with their prescriptions and that 12% receive the PMI sheet and
are hospitalized because of a drug related problem. What is the probability
that a person will be hospitalized for a drug-related problem given that the
person has received the PMI sheet?

Ex. 3 — Suppose research has indicated that only 1% of credit card trans-
actions are fraudulent. Further suppose that 0.03% of fraudulent credit card
transactions are associated with internet casinos, but that only 0.0007% of
non-fraudulent credit card transactions are associated with internet casinos.
If a given credit card transaction involves an internet casino, what is the
probability it is fraudulent?

Ex. 4 — The king comes from a family of 2 children. What is the probabil-
ity that the other child is his sister? Does your probability calculation change
if it is known that the king is the elder of the two?

D R A F T July 12, 2021, 5:16pm D R A F T


ii

Ex. 5 — Two cards are randomly chosen without replacement from an or-
dinary deck of 52 cards. Let B be the event that both cards are aces, let As
be the event that the ace of spades is chosen, and let A be the event that at
least one ace is chosen. Find (a) P(B—As) (b) P(B—A).

Ex. 6 — A financial service company advertises its services in magazines,


runs billboard ads on major highways, and advertises its services on the radio.
The company estimates that there is a 0.10 probability that a given individual
will see the billboard ad during the week, a 0.15 chance that he or she will
see the ad in a magazine, and a 0.20 chance that she or he will hear the
advertisement on the radio during the week. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen member of the population in the area will be exposed to at
least one method of advertising during a given week? (Assume independence.)

Ex. 7 — A fashion designer has been working with the colors green, black,
and red in preparing for the coming season’s fashions. The designer estimates
that there is a 0.3 chance that the color green will be ”in” during the coming
reason , a 0.2 chance that black will be among the season’s colors, and a 0.15
chance that red will be popular. Assuming that colors are chosen indepen-
dently of each other for inclusion in new fashions, what is the probability that
the designer will be successful with at least one of her colors?

Ex. 8 — It has been found from past experience that of the articles pro-
duced by a factory, 20% come from machine 1, 30% from machine 2 and 50%
from machine 3. The percentages of satisfactory articles among those pro-
duced are 95% for machine 1, 85% for machine 2 and 90% for machine 3.
(a) An article is chosen at random from a lot. What is the probability that it
is satisfactory?
(b) Assuming that the article is satisfactory, what is the probability that it
was produced by machine 1?

Ex. 9 — Researchers at Kurume University in Japan surveyed 225 workers


aged 41 to 60 years and found that 30% of them were skilled workers and
70% were unskilled. At the time of survey, 15% of skilled workers and 30% of

D R A F T July 12, 2021, 5:16pm D R A F T


iii

unskilled workers were on an assembly line. A worker is selected at random


from the age group 41 to 60.

1.What is the probability that the worker is on an assembly line?

2.Given that the worker is on an assembly line, what is the probability that
the worker is unskilled?

Ex. 10 — The probability that a new product will be successful if a com-


petitor does not come up with a similar product is 0.67. The probability
that the new product will be successful in the presence of a competitor’s new
product is 0.42. The probability that the competing firm will come out with
a new product during the period in question is 0.35. If the product is not a
success, what is the probability that the competitor launched a new product?

Ex. 11 — A total of 46 percent of the voters in a certain city classify them-


selves as Independents, whereas 30 percent classify themselves as Liberals and
24 percent say that they are Conservatives. In a recent local election, 35 per-
cent of the Independents, 62 percent of the Liberals, and 58 percent of the
Conservatives voted. A voter is chosen at random. Given that this person
voted in the local election, what is the probability that he or she is either an
Independent or a Liberal?

Ex. 12 — In a typing pool, three typists share their workload in the ratio
of 30%, 35% and 35% of the total work. The 1st , 2nd and 3rd typist spoil the
work to the extent of 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. A work is selected and
found spoiled. Which typist is most likely to spoil it?

D R A F T July 12, 2021, 5:16pm D R A F T

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