Digital Start Up
Digital Start Up
Digital Start Up
Value creation likely for the next decade- Riding on the tech wave
Today, the start-up ecosystem in India has entered into a growth phase with the advent of the
smartphone era. This period has led to tremendous growth in the number and variety of start-ups,
especially with the rise of technology start-ups. Models around e-commerce, specialised retail,
marketplaces, hyper-delivery networks and organising the unorganised sector are emerging as
strong bets. This has not only led to the entry of large consumer-focused brands like Amazon and
Uber into India, but also the emergence of more than 24 home-grown unicorns (like Ola, Nykaa,
Paytm among many more). Another factor fueling this new phase of growth is the significant
investment from the government, as well as private investors such as private equity funding or
venture capitalists, and other financial institutions. A supportive government, tech savvy young
population (60%+ of Indians below 35 years), ongoing digitization of SMEs and a well-funded PE/VC
ecosystem, that could would create value.
Few themes to watch out for are 1) Cos moving from traction to monetization; 2) online
consumption from tier 3/4 cities; 3) Fintech to be more combative vs collaborative and 4) M&A
potential in the hyper competitive internet space.
Besides large venture capital funds like Prosus Ventures, Tiger Global and SoftBank
that have made big bets on a bunch of local start-ups, many institutional investors
and pension funds are investing in online businesses
According to Venture Intelligence Investors infused a whopping $4.4 billion into Indian
start-ups between January-March ’21. Given the low ad yield rates in India, cos can’t solely
rely on ad monetization and need a mix of commerce & partnerships also. They have funded a whole
lot of models like Food-tech, Fintech (Gateway, PoS), SaaS, Gaming, Ed-tech & select D2C. E-com,
Mobility, Health-tech are sometimes away from positive unit economics. Regulation and data privacy
are the key risks. Few key cos are Freshworks, Zomato, Dream11, PineLabs and Nykaa. As investors
change their stance on companies burning cash to chase growth, major Indian startups across
sectors are now shifting their focus to better their unit economics.
Exhibit-9
Times Internet:
Times Group has their media assets span across news (ToI, ET, NBT), sports (Cricbuzz), lifestyle
(Indiatimes), music (Gaana), and video (MX Player), and enablement platforms serving users across
personal finance (ETMoney), real estate (Magicbricks), education (Gradeup), food (Dineout), etc.
Exhibit-10
Exhibit-11
Exhibit-12
Chart 3
Exhibit 14
Exhibit 15
Exhibit 16
Exhibit 17
Exhibit 18
Google:
Google dominates India in terms of search and 90%+ of smartphones in India have Google’s Android
operating system. Recently, Google has been making investments in tech start-ups in India, but not
to an extent to some of its other peers like Amazon.
Exhibit 19
Exhibit 20
Exhibit 21
Table2
Chart8
E-commerce: Boom A boon: As E-com cos expand in tier 2/3 cites, average order value would go
down. As discounts are curtailed off demand would eventually fall (i.e. churn rising remains).
Economics need to further improve to be profitable – especially for tier 2/3 cities. Businesses like
online grocery are tough, especially as standalone ones. Though RIL online presence is minuscule,
they are aggressive in improving it in the online grocery market in coming years. Current online
grocery penetration is around 0.2%, implying size of market of $ 1.1 bn in 2020; Due to Covid and
coupled with rising competition and better value proposition to consumers, the online grocery
market is expected to be $8 bn by 2022 and $23 bn by 2025, though online grocery penetration is
still expected to be low at 2.7%. Big basket and Grofers are the other two big players in the online
grocery market.
RIL likely to make more investments in tech, logistics & supply-chain: RIL’s online strategy is largely
a hyperlocal one, where it is looking to leverage its offline physical stores to help deliver via online
channels. In its 3 retail businesses, RIL has separate apps for apparel (AJIO), electronics (Reliance
digital app) and a recently launched grocery app (JioMart). Indeed, RIL is incrementally looking to
invest in logistics and supply chain. Furthermore, the app-in-app integration with WhatsApp would
improve RIL’s consumer reach. Facebook would get a take-rate based on the GMV moving on its
platform
Many start-ups are focusing on Kiranas: Many business models emerged to cater to different needs
of the Kiranas. The key focus areas being – Back-end (traditional distribution & sourcing), Managing
financing; at the store level and Front-end (customer facing). RIL is well positioned to provide an
end-to-end solution led by its control on this supply chain (farm to fork model) & by leveraging tech
to improve revenues and margins.
Exhibit 34
Mobility: Over the years, the mobility market in India has evolved towards a greater need for 3W,
2W & buses. Covid was a spoils sport in terms profitability. Uptake of EV would lead to new
competition &/or incremental investments.
Fintech: Gateway/PoS are rewarding: Payment gateways would be one of the lucrative market
followed by PoS as current low penetration & sticky base will aid growth, but concern on the
unsecured SME/retail lending as scalability and quality remains an issue. B2C (Business-to-
Consumer) payments is low loyalty high competition market fought by well-funded tech giants like
Google, PayTM, PhonePe and even WhatsApp-Pay.
Logistics: Leveraging tech to scale: E-tailing has acted as a catalyst for determining how logistics
facilities are designed, redeveloped, relocated, and utilized to match with changing requirements in
supply chain management. The tech led asset light models are scaling up fast and have potential to
be c.15% EBITDA margins in steady state. The new-age start-up cos are leveraging on tech, pursuing
multiple revenue streams (to improve unit economics) and looking to do instant deliveries.
The key hyperlocal models to look out for are 1) Food delivery: Zomato/Swiggy-; 2) Goods delivery:
Dunzo/Swiggy Go- which is currently small at $50-100mn, but has huge potential to grow; 3) Home
services: Urban Company/ Housejoy- the market opportunity is as high as $15-40 bn as per Urban
Company (but currently small at c. $50-100 mn); 4) Grocery delivery: BigBasket/Grofers/JioMart
which could be a $12bn opportunity by 2023; 5) Last mile logistics: ShadowFax, Grab among others
or medicine delivery like 1mg- Unit economics is still a challenge in some of these models, but
overtime with scale, profitability could be improving.
Food-tech: Strong take rates; good traction: While the Food-tech industry in India to be well
positioned to sustained growth with improving unit economics. Take-rates are one of the highest in
India at 20-25% and consumer traction is increasing. Market is largely a duopoly between Zomato &
Swiggy with 80%+ share.
Zomato & Swiggy dominate mkt: Zomato is one of the successful start-ups in India ecosystem that
scaled up aggressively, shown solid execution and well positioned on the path towards profitability.
Prosus backed Swiggy’s business model has evolved and along with food delivery it is also offering
other services like SUPR Daily, Swiggy Genie etc. Amazon launched its food delivery service pilot in
Bangalore in May-20 & is charging 10-15% as take rates against 20-25% charged by Zomato/Swiggy.
It remains to be seen how fast Amazon scales up and if it leads to potential increase competition.
Cloud Kitchen models better payback: Cloud kitchens have also started to gain traction in India.
Companies like Rebel Foods (Faasos), FreshMenu, HolaChef etc. started this with delivery-only
restaurants, or virtual restaurants. The rent-to-sales ratio for a cloud kitchen is accordingly 3-5%, i.e.
1/5th-1/6th that of a traditional restaurant which bears about 15-25%. A typical cloud kitchen
invests roughly 1/3rd or 1/4th the amount invested by a traditional restaurant. Therefore- the
payback period for a cloud kitchen is also much lower at less than 1 year for a cloud kitchen as
against 3-5 years for a restaurant.
Gaming: Profit pools are real: Most gaming companies in India are profitable at operating level with
good unit economics. However concerns remain on the regulatory front.
Ed-tech: Good demand with willingness to pay: During Covid, Ed-tech has seen good traction as it
provided access & good quality offering at affordable price. Gross margins for business are good at
70%.
Health-tech: Tough sector to monetize: While heath-tech offers huge long term potential, the
current dynamics & difficulty in execution make economics difficult.
SaaS: A Proven model: India SaaS cos have largely proven themselves in US & other international
markets. The bigger ones have gross margins of 80-90% and churn rate <10%.
D2C: Well placed to create value: Some of the D2C brands in a short span have addressed niche
opportunities & moving closer towards profitability by leveraging tech. Companies like Nykaa,
Lenskart are addressing gaps left unaddressed by traditional players in largely unorganized spaces
eB2B: Early days, but huge space: A big theme coming offlate in India is the emergence of eB2B
companies especially led by digitalization of SMEs and “Make in India” push by the govt. Companies
like Udaan, Moglix are also looking to solve credit, logistics issues. Improving scale should help B2B
cos move towards EBITDA breakeven.
Exhibit 27
India is well placed for immense competition of Fintech in the next decade led by improving tech
savviness, formalization of economy, coupled by uptake of inter-operable enablers. Huge headroom
would ensure strong growth for financial services. However hyper competition (2000+ Fintechs)
could delay monetization for most businesses.
On B2C front, the salaried class are well serviced by banks and are likely to be target bank for Credit
card focused, Neo-Banks & wealth mgmt Fintechs. Even telcos like Jio, Bharti are likely to play a
strong role as distributors of financial services. On B2B front large enterprises are well served by
banks; but most SMEs have unmet credit - SME lenders, embedded finance offerings (like Udaan
Credit, Jio PoS loans) could address these unmet needs.
Payment gateways/PoS well placed; Cautious on lending: 1) Under Penetration is the key driver for
payment gateways to be one of the lucrative market & sticky base will also aid growth; 2) Despite
headwinds, the PoS (point of sale) models have evolved to charge a subscription fee & offer VAS
(value-added services)/superior offering; 3) Cautious view on the unsecured SME/retail lending as
scalability and quality remains an issue; 4) B2C payments is low loyalty high competition market
fought by well-funded tech giants; 5) Wealth-tech is at nascent stages with addressable market of
top 50-60 mn users & Insur-tech is seeing steady uptake of sachet offerings.
Exhibit-45
Exhibit-46
• PineLabs provides a merchant platform and makes software for PoS machines. It serves 140K+
merchants across 450K network points. PineLabs has run an analytics app on debit card base of
banks it tied up to determine the extent of credit to be made available to every cardholder.
MasterCard recently invested in PineLabs.
• PolicyBazaar is India’s largest insurance aggregator & makes money largely through commissions
(95%); from revenue point, health & life insurance contribute to 80%+ of the revenues.
PolicyBazaar’s platform focusing on loan and non-insurance product is PaisaBazaar. It is a
marketplace in unsecured lending. The company uses credit score as an acquisition vehicle.
• RazorPay started as a pure payment gateway business and is now evolving towards a converged
financial ecosystem company. Its two new business lines are its neo-banking platform “RazorpayX”
and its lending arm “Razorpay Capital”. Overtime, company expects these to contribute 35% of its
revenue.
• CashFree is a full stack payments solution & is one of the leading API banking platform that lets
businesses send money round-the-clock and instantly to bank accounts. Some of the features of
CashFree are a split payment solution for marketplaces, a Bank Account Verification API and Auto
Collect.
• Zerodha is one of the most prominent players amongst domestic brokers. Zerodha has witnessed
continuous growth in no of active clients & is the market leader with c. 18% market share as of
Oct’20 (share as a % of total active clients on National Stock Exchange). The total client base has
jumped c. 40X to 2.6mn over past 5 years for Zerodha. The co introduced disruptive pricing offering
low flat brokerage to its clients & clocked Rs 8.5bn Revenues in FY19 & Rs 3.5bn net profit.
Hotels: A fragmented “high margin” space: The hotel/lodging market size in India was $14bn in
2019 is expected to grow mainly due to 1) increase in first time travellers; 2) increasing travel spends
by middle-income households; 3) continued expansion of footprint by carriers. Overall online
penetration is expected to increase due to standardization of quality and greater online booking of
both work and leisure travel as more Millennials enter the workforce
Oyo: the game changer in budget hotels space: Founded in 2013, Oyo is one of the early startups
into the hotel aggregation business. Backed by Softbank (it owns c. 45% in Oyo), Oyo aggressively
expanded outside India in markets like China, US & Europe – both organically as well as inorganically.
Currently it is the third largest hotel chain in number of rooms.
Exhibit 50
Tech start-ups: Leveraging data: Some of the new breed EV-focused OEMs are Ola Electric, Ather
Energy, Revolt, Ampere & Okinawa. These tech cos are leveraging car/user data to better
understand consumption patterns. Apart from the traditional GPS locators, EV is expected to use AI
and IoT for enhancing the user experience. E-com cos Amazon/Flipkart & even RIL have pledged to
make a significant portion of its delivery fleets electric.
Indian government also supportive: The Indian government approved the national policy on
software products in Mar-19, which aims to develop India as a global software hub and propel its
size by 10X by 2025. The policy comes with five key objectives: 1) Create a sustainable Indian
software product industry, driven by IP, leading to a 10-fold increase in India’s share of the global
software product market by 2025; 2) Nurture 10K technology startups in software product industry,
generating direct and in-direct employment for 3.5mn people by 2025; 3) Create a talent pool by up-
skilling of 1mn IT professionals; 4) Build 20 sectorial and strategically located software product
development clusters having integrated ICT (Information & Communication technology)
infrastructure, marketing, incubation, R&D/test-beds and mentoring support.; 5) Evolve and monitor
scheme and also programs for the implementation of this policy. Offlate, there is a strong
Government push for procurement of “Made in India” SaaS products.
Funding received by Indian SaaS companies over the years ($bn)
2.5
2.1
2
1.8
1.5
1.1
1
1
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.5
0.3
0
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