With reference to any project that you are familiar with, develop a problem tree analysis

then the objective tree analysis and lastly the logical frame work of the project.

 PROBLEM TREE ANALYSIS

A problem tree analysis is a pictorial representation of a problem, its causes and its
consequences. This analysis tool helps the project team get a quick glance of how a range of
complex issues contribute toward a problem and how this problem branches out into a set of
consequences. Both causes and consequences are fitted into the diagram on a hierarchical
preference basis.

Problem tree analysis helps stakeholders to establish a realistic overview and awareness of the
problem by identifying the fundamental causes and their most important effects. The main output
of the exercise is a tree-shaped diagram in which the trunk represents the focal problem, the roots
represent its causes and the branches its effects. Such a problem tree diagram creates a logical
hierarchy of causes and effects and visualizes the links between them. It creates a summary
picture of the existing negative situation.

THE PROCEDURE OF A PROBLEM TREE ANALYSIS

The problem tree hierarchy is formed following these six main steps:

1. Identify existing problems within the problem area/domain of interest (brain storming)
 A problem is not the absence of a solution, but an existing negative state or situation
 Distinguish between existing, impossible, imaginary or future problems
2. Define the core problem (focal problem or central point of the overall problem).
3. Formulate the causes of the core problem
 Consider that the problems identified in step 1 can also be causes of the core problem
4. Formulate the effects (consequences) of the core problem
 Consider that the problems identified in step 1 can also be effects of the core problem
5. Draw a diagram (problem tree) that represents cause-effect relationships (problem
hierarchy)
 The focal problem is placed in the centre of the diagram, forming the trunk of the tree
 Causes are placed below and effects above, in sub-dividing roots and branches (like a
mind map)
 If possible, all causes/effects of a problem should be on the same horizontal level (see
example below)
6. Review the logic and verify the diagram as a whole with regard to validity and
completeness. If necessary, make adjustments.

 Question to ask for each problem: are these causes sufficient to explain why this occurs?

1
ILLUSTRATION OF A PROBLEM TREE

Using “Unemployment and underemployment of educated youths in Uganda” as the case

study, below is a diagrammatic illustration of a problem tree analysis:
EFFECTS

Poor living standards

Wide gap
between the poor
Decline of life
and the rich Increased
Increased expectancy
Increased crimes and conflicts in
poverty
insecurity families
Reduced value
for education
Lack of dynamic
Reduced Increased individual Abject poverty
socio-economic
economic growth disappointments
transformation

Increased number of Wastage of resources

Stagnant development
unemployed graduates

CORE PROBLEM Unemployment and underemployment of educated youths

Mismatch between Mismatch between demand

skills and job for education and job
requirements opportunities

Poor collaboration
Irrelevant
between education Lack of job
curriculum
and employers opportunities

Lack of sound Lack of

Lack of educational Nepotism, Poor utilization
experts education corruption & of resources
policies stakeholders’ favoritism
forum
Lack of creativity
Lack of openness and innovation
Limited
to embrace new
CAUSES investments
trends
Inflation

2
Figure 1: Hypothetical problem tree for Unemployment and underemployment of educated
youths in Uganda.

 THE OBJECTIVE TREE ANALYSIS

Analysis of objectives is a methodological approach employed to describe the situation in the

future once identified problems have been remedied, depicting the ends and the means in a
diagram called “objective tree”.

This methodology allows:

 To describe the future scenarios deriving from the problems’ solution.

 To verify the objectives’ hierarchy.
 To clarify in a diagram the means-ends relations.

The negative situations identified in the problem tree are transformed into positive and already
reached situations.

Transformation of the problems into objectives

Below is an illustrative example of how problems can be transformed into objectives:

PROBLEM OBJECTIVE

Increased number of unemployed Reduced number of jobless

graduates graduates

Stagnant development Robust development

Wastage of resources Efficient use of resources

Abject poverty
Increased wealth

The negative situations of the problem tree are converted into solutions, expressed as “positive
achievements”. For instance, in the shown example of Unemployment and underemployment of
educated youths in Uganda, “Increased number of unemployed graduates” is converted into
“Reduced number of jobless graduates”. These positive achievements are in fact objectives, and
are presented in an objective tree showing the means/ends hierarchy.

Since the negative situations of the problem tree have to be reformulated into positive situations
that are desirable and realistically achievable, it is of primal importance that all stakeholders are
involved in the discussions giving their feedback. Appropriate consultation also helps to consider

3
priorities, assess how realistic the achievements of some objectives might be and identify
additional means that might be required to achieve the desired ends.

ILLUSTRATION OF AN OBJECTIVE TREE ANALYSIS

Using “Unemployment and underemployment of educated youths in Uganda” as the case

study, below is a diagrammatic illustration of an objective tree analysis:
ENDS

Satisfactory living
Narrow gap standards
between the poor
Increase of life
and the rich Reduced
Reduced expectancy
Reduced crimes and conflicts in
poverty
insecurity families

Increased
Dynamic socio-
Increased value for Reduced individual Increased wealth
economic
economic growth education disappointments
transformation

Efficient use of resources

Reduced jobless
Robust development
graduates

GOAL To increase educated graduates’ employability and employment opportunities

Congruence between skills Balance between

and job requirements demand for education
and job opportunities

Good collaboration Increased job

Relevant
between education opportunities
curriculum
and employers

Impartiality, Effective
Developing Establishment of fairness &
Hiring utilization of
sound education accountability
experts resources
educational stakeholders’
policies forum
High Enhanced
investments creativity and
Readiness to innovation
MEANS
embrace new Economic
trends stability 4
Figure 2: Hypothetical objective tree for Unemployment and underemployment of educated
youths in Uganda.

 THE LOGICAL FRAME WORK

The Logical Framework Approach is an instrument for objective-oriented planning of projects.

The method may also be used for analysis, assessment, follow-up and evaluation of projects.
What the method is used for depends on the role of its users and their needs.

The Logical Framework Approach (LFA) is used to:

 Identify problems and needs in a certain sector of society

 Facilitate selecting and setting priorities between projects
 Plan and implement development projects effectively
 Follow-up and evaluate development projects.

The Logical Framework Approach is:

– An instrument for logical analysis and structured thinking in project planning

– A framework, a battery of questions which, if they are used in a uniform way, provide a
structure for the dialogue between different stakeholders in a project.

– A planning instrument, which encompasses the different elements in a process of change

(problems, objectives, stakeholders, plan for implementation

The different steps in the Logical Framework method

The LFA method contains nine different steps:

1. Analysis of the project’s Context

2. Stakeholder Analysis
3. Problem Analysis/Situation analysis
4. Objectives Analysis
5. Plan of Activities
6. Resource Planning
7. Indicators/Measurements of Objectives
8. Risk Analysis and Risk Management
9. Analysis of the Assumptions

The Logical Framework Approach is an instrument for objective-oriented planning of projects

and majorly focuses on analysis and planning;
5
 (a) Analysis

The Current situation is analyzed in order to design the image of the future “desired situation”. It
will facilitate the identification of the appropriate strategies in order to reach the desired
situation. The main objective for analysis is to guarantee that the project idea is relevant to the
future situation desired.

(b) Planning

The project idea is specified in a plan and the main objective is to guarantee the development of
the project.

Logical Framework approach steps

ANALYSIS

PLANNING(LF Matrix)
1. Stakeholder Analysis
2. Problem Analysis/Situation analysis
3. Objectives Analysis
4. Strategy Analysis
1. Activity Scheduling
2. Resource Scheduling

The Logical framework format

Intervention
logic

Verifiable
indicators

Sources of
verification

Assumptions

6
General
objective

Project
purpose

Results

Activities

7
MEANS

MEANS

Logical framework Description

 The column Intervention logic indicates the contents of the project.

 The column Indicators gives the tools to verify if the objectives are reached and the
results achieved.
 The column Sources of verification indicates what information have to be used in order
to apply the indicators.
 The column Assumptions includes the external factors affecting (positively or
negatively) the project’s implementation.

Intervention logic

The following hierarchy is designed:

 GENERAL OBJECTIVE: long term benefits for the society.

 PROJECT PURPOSE: benefits for the project’s beneficiaries.
 RESULTS: concrete services/goods made available by the project.
 ACTIVITIES: how the project’s services/goods will be delivered.

ILLUSTRATION OF THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE PROJECT

Using “Unemployment and underemployment of educated youths in Uganda” as the case

study, below is a diagrammatic illustration of the logical framework:

Intervention logic Verifiable indicators Sources of Assumptions

verification

General To increase educated - Increase of job creation - Data from national -Data on employment
objective graduates’ employability and demand for labor statistics, research are continuously
and employment - Number of graduates boards and ministries collected, safeguarded
opportunities with jobs in charge of labor and updated
- Less number of - The country’s economy
complaints and job remains promising
seekers from higher - The private sector fast
education grows to give
employments
Project To attain a balance - Revised university - University - Collaboration with all
purpose between: programmes and curricula prospectus, program potential stakeholders
-skills and job - Governments‟ policies specifications and remains high
requirements and actions module descriptions - Required resources are

8
 -population growth & - Partnerships with - Researches available
economic growth educational stake-holders conducted on - Trust and security
-demand for education & knowledge and labor remain incontestable
job opportunities market skills‟
requirements
- Memorandum of
understanding signed
Results -Reduced poverty -Improvement in people’s -The countries‟ Gross -Monitored economy
-Increase of life living conditions Domestic Product and proper actions taken
expectancy -Quantity and quality of (GDP), income per in good time
-Increased value for higher education capita & Gross -Education quality
education graduates national product assurance entities fulfill
-Reduced crimes and - Peaceful society (GNP) their tasks as due
insecurity -Boosting economy -Higher education - Visionary and strong
graduation booklets leadership
- Tracer studies” - Strong collaboration
findings on higher with all potential
education graduates stakeholders
fitness for purpose in
the labor market
-Police and judiciary
reports
-Data for development
and investment bodies
and institutions
Activities -Involvement of experts - Taskforces of local and - A comprehensive - Willingness to change
-Putting in place sound internal educational educational policy the old paradigm
educational policies experts are set formulation, analysis, - The findings are valued
-Establishment of -Revised and enhanced review & and recommendations
education stakeholders‟ educational policies implementation implemented
forum - Regular consultative advisory committee is -Strong & democratic
-Enhancing higher meetings with educational set leadership
education stakeholders - Minutes of the - The timely availability
-High investments - Education adequately meetings of required budget
- Effective utilization of staffed and resourced - New directives and - The general population
resources -Increase in number of target sets sensitization on job
-Enhanced creativity and investors - Budget released creation, self
innovation - Higher education employment is at highest
staff qualifications, - Higher education
budget & other institutions strive to
resources inventory meet the required
- Statistics from graduates and social
investments” bodies expectations

Figure 3: Hypothetical Logical Framework for Unemployment and underemployment of

educated youths in Uganda.

9
References

African Economic Outlook (2012).Promoting Youth Employment, from

www.africaneconomicoutlook.org, accessed April 18th 2015.

Arulampalam, W., Booth, A.L. & Taylor, M.P. (2000). Unemployment Persistence, Oxford
Economic Papers, 52 (1), Special Issue on Unemployment Dynamics and the Natural Rate (Jan.
2000), pp. 24-50

BBC (2012, May 02). Ghana private universities 'cause unemployment'. British Broadcast
Corporation, from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-17928544, accessed on February 4th,
2015

Blustein, D.L., Kozan, S. & Connors-Kellgren, A. (2013). Unemployment and

underemployment: A narrative analysis about loss. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 82, pp. 256-
265.

DFID (2003). Tools for Development: A handbook for those engaged in development activity.
Department for International Development (DFID). London, UK.

10
GTZ (1991). Methods and Instruments for Project Planning and Implementation (Outlines).
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH. Eschborn, Germany.

11